Decision Making and Learning in a Globalizing World
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(3) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. Decision Making and Learning in a Globalizing World OTTO H. SWANK and BAUKE VISSER. EUI Working Paper ECO 2009/20.
(4) This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper or other series, the year, and the publisher. The author(s)/editor(s) should inform the Economics Department of the EUI if the paper is to be published elsewhere, and should also assume responsibility for any consequent obligation(s). ISSN 1725-6704. © 2009 Otto H. Swank and Bauke Visser Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy www.eui.eu cadmus.eui.eu.
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(24) 2><<D=820C8>= 1A40:B 3>F= 2><?;4C4;H 0= 064=C >=;H ;40A=B F7827 C427=>;>6H 70B 144= DB43 8= >C74A ?;024B 428B8>=<0:8=6 8= C74 B42>=3 ?4A8>3 8B ?>>A *78B 8B A4<8=8B24=C >5 C74 4G?4A84=24 >5 C74 &$ 0 20B4 >5 3424=CA0;8I43 ;40A=8=6 F8C7 6;>10; <0A:4CB %4GC F4 B7>F 7>F 8= 20B4 >5 6;>10; <0A:4CB 2><<D=820C8>= 20= 14 ?0AC;H A4BC>A43 1H 24=CA0;8I0C8>= 64=CB C0;: 01>DC C748A ;>20; 4G?4A84=24 8= C74 ?A4B4=24 >5 0 24=CA0; 0DC7>A8CH %4GC C78B 0DC7>A8CH 8<?>B4B C74 ?A02C824 C70C 8B A4?>AC43;H 14CC4A = 064=C =>F 5024B 0 CA034>S &= C74 >=4 70=3 0B C74 064=C ;>B4B 3428B8>=<0:8=6 ?>F4A 74 F0=CB C> <0:4 BDA4 C70C C74 24=C4A 8B F4;;8=5>A<43 &= C74 >C74A 70=3 78B A4?DC0C8>=0; 2>=24A=B 8<?;H C70C 74 F0=CB C74 24=C4A C> 8<?>B4 O78BP C427=>;>6H 0C 48C74A B8C4 B 0 A4BD;C 4027 064=C B4=3B 2>0AB4 8=5>A<0C8>= 01>DC 78B >F= ?A02C824 -4 B7>F C70C 8= 20B4 >5 6;>10; <0A:4CB 24=CA0;8I0C8>= >S4AB 0 2;40A 03E0=C064 >E4A 3424=CA0;8I0C8>= 5A>< 0 B>280; F4;50A4 ?4AB?42C8E4 C70=:B C> C74 A4BC>A0C8>= >5 2><<D=820C8>= )D27 0 2;40A 03E0=C064 8B 01B4=C 8= 20B4 >5 ;>20; <0A:4CB C74 8<?A>E43 3428B8>=<0:8=6 C70C 2><4B F8C7 2>=24=CA0C8=6 3428B8>= ?>F4AB 8= C74 70=3B >5 0 14=4E>;4=C 24=CA0; 0DC7>A8CH 8B C> 0 ;0A64 346A44 >SB4C 1H 8<?>E4A8B743 2><<D=820C8>= 01>DC C74 ?4A5>A<0=24 >5 C427=>;>684B *74 ?0?4A 8B >A60=8I43 0B 5>;;>FB *74 =4GC B42C8>= 38B2DBB4B C74 A4;0C43 ;8C4A0CDA4 = )42C8>= F4 ?A4B4=C C74 <>34; )42C8>= 0=0;HB4B 8B>;0C43 064=CB = B42C8>= F4 0=0;HB4 ;40A=8=6 F74= <0A:4CB 0A4 ;>20; 0=3 F4 CDA= C> 6;>10; <0A:4CB 8= B42C8>= )42C8>= 2>=2;D34B. . %, #, *,-* . &DA ?0?4A 2>=CA81DC4B C> C74 ;8C4A0CDA4 C70C BCD384B 7>F C74 @D0;8CH >5 8=5>A<0C8>= 4G270=64 8B 34C4A<8=43 1H C74 540CDA4B >5 C74 3428B8>=<0:8=6 ?A>24BB *78B ;8C4A0CDA4 C0:4B 0= 8=2>< ?;4C4 2>=CA02CB 0??A>027 C> 3428B8>=<0:8=6 8= F7827 2><<8C<4=C 8B ;8<8C43 C> C74 4G 0=C4 0BB86=<4=C >5 3428B8>= A867CB B 0 A4BD;C 2><<D=820C8>= 0<>=6 064=CB 0<>D=CB C> 2740? C0;: = C748A B4<8=0; ?0?4A A0F5>A3 0=3 )>14;
(25) B7>F C70C C74 @D0;8CH >5 2740? C0;: 34?4=3B >= C74 346A44 >5 0;86=<4=C 14CF44= C74 8=C4A4BCB >5 C74 8=5>A<43 B4=34A 0=3 C74 D=8=5>A<43 3428B8>=<0:4A A4248E4A *74A4 8B =>F 0 6A>F8=6 ;8C4A0CDA4 C70C 4G?;>A4B 7>F 270A02C4A8BC82B >5 3428B8>=<0:8=6 ?A>24BB4B 8=LD4=24 C74 @D0;8CH >5 2><<D=820C8>= *74 .
(26) ;8C4A0CDA4 C>>: >S 8= ?>;8C820; B284=24 ?4A70?B 1420DB4 >5 C74 24=CA0; A>;4 ?;0H43 1H 3410C4 0=3 A74C>A82 8= C74 ?>;8C820; 0A4=0 8;;860= 0=3 "A47184; 0=0;HB4 7>F A4BCA82C8>=B >= C74 018;8CH >5 C74 A4248E4A 0 ?0A4=C 1>3H C> 0<4=3 ?A>?>B0;B >5 0 B4=34A 0 2><<8CC44 8<?A>E4 C74 ;0CC4ANB 8=24=C8E4 C> 60C74A 8=5>A<0C8>= DBC4=)<8C7 38B2DBB4B C74 A>;4 34;814A0C8>= 20= ?;0H 85 0= 064=30 8B KG43 >A BC8;; 70B C> 14 B4C >D67;0=
(27). 0=0;HB4 C74 A>;4 ?;0H43 1H 2740? C0;: 2><<D=820C8>= ?A42438=6 E>C8=6 8= 0 2><<8CC44 4 B7>FB C70C 85 9DA>ABN >1942C8E4B 0A4 B8<8;0A 4=>D67 0= 4@D8;81A8D< 4G8BCB 8= F7827 4027 9DA>A A4E40;B 78B B86=0; 8= C74 34;814A0C8>= BC064 *74 8<?;820C8>= 8B C70C 8= C74 K=0; E>C4 9DA>AB 70E4 => 8= 24=C8E4B C> E>C4 BCA0C46820;;H *74A4 8B =>F 0 6A>F8=6 ;8C4A0CDA4 >= 502C>AB C70C 8=LD4=24 C74 @D0;8CH >5 3410C4 8= 6A>D? 3428B8>=<0:8=6 ?A>24BB4B DBC4=)<8C7 0=3 4334AB4=
(28). BCD3H B8CD0C8>=B 8= F7827 4027 2><<8CC44 <4<14A 70B ?A8E0C4 8=5>A<0C8>= 1>C7 01>DC 78B ?4AB>=0; 180B 0=3 01>DC C74 E0;D4 >5 0 C4A< 2><<>= C> 0;; <4<14AB 4BB48=
(29). B7>FB 7>F 6A0=C8=6 0DC7>A8CH C> >=4 <4<14A A0C74A C70= DB8=6 <09>A8CH E>C4 8<?A>E4B 3428B8>= <0:8=6 1H 0E>838=6 ;4=6C7H 38B2DBB8>=B ,8BB4A 0=3 )F0=:
(30). BCD3H 7>F A4?DC0C8>=0; 2>=24A=B 8=LD4=24 C74 @D0;8CH >5 3410C4 0=3 20= 4G?;08= C74 >1B4AE43 34B8A4 >5 2><<8CC44B C> B7>F 0 D=8C43 5A>=C C> C74 >DCB834 F>A;3 *74H 0;B> B7>F 7>F C74 >?C8<0; E>C8=6 AD;4 10;0=24B C74 @D0;8CH >5 8=5>A<0C8>= 4G270=64 0=3 C74 0;86=<4=C >5 8=C4A4BCB >5 C74 3428B8E4 E>C4A F8C7 C7>B4 >5 C74 ?A8=28?0; *74 2DAA4=C ?0?4A 38S4AB 5A>< C74 01>E4 8= 8CB 5>2DB >= C74 ?>BB818;8C84B 5>A ;40A=8=6 5A>< C74 4G?4A84=24 >5 >C74AB 8= 0 2>=C4GC F74A4 064=CB 70E4 A4?DC0C8>=0; 2>=24A=B $>A4 >E4A F74A40B 0 2><<8CC44 C0:4B 0 2>;;42C8E4 3428B8>= 8= C74 2DAA4=C ?0?4A C74A4 8B 48C74A 3424=CA0;8I43 >A 24=CA0;8I43 3428B8>=<0:8=6 *74 34B8A018;8CH >5 3424=CA0;8I0C8>= >A 24=CA0;8I0C8>= 8B 0;B> BCD3843 1H ;>=B> 4C 0;
(31). 0=3 1H (0=C0:0A8
(32). 8= C74 2>=C4GC >5 0 <D;C838E8B8>=0; KA< 027 38E8B8>= 14=4KCB 5A>< 030?C8=6 8CB 3428B8>= C> 8CB >F= <0A:4C 28A2D<BC0=24B 0=3 5A>< 2>>A38=0C8=6 8CB 3428B8>= F8C7 C7>B4 >5 C74 >C74A 38E8B8>=B 8E8B8>=B 0A4 ?A8E0C4;H 8=5>A<43 01>DC C748A <0A:4C 28A2D<BC0=24B *74H 20= 48C74A 4G270=64 8=5>A<0C8>= 0=3 =4GC 342834 8=34?4=34=C;H >5 4027 >C74A F70C 3428B8>=B C> C0:4 >A C74H 20= A4?>AC 8=5>A<0C8>= C> 7403@D0AC4AB F7827 . )44 4A0A38 0=3 .0A8E
(33). 5>A 0 <4270=8B< 34B86= 0??A>027 C> E>C8=6 ?A424343 1H 34;814A0C8>=. $48A>F8CI
(34).
(35). 2><?0A4B C74 4S42C8E4=4BB >5 3410C4 0=3 CA0=B54AB 8= 8=3D28=6 8=5>A<0C8>= A4E4;0C8>=. .
(36) C74= 342834B 5>A 1>C7 38E8B8>=B *74H B7>F C70C 4E4= 85 2>>A38=0C8>= 142><4B >5 >E4AA838=6 2>=24A= C> C74 KA< 3424=CA0;8I0C8>= <0H BC8;; >DC?4A5>A< 24=CA0;8I0C8>= 3D4 C> C74 38S4A4=24 8= @D0;8CH >5 2><<D=820C8>= B ;>=B> 4C 0; 0=3 (0=C0:0A8 F4 BCD3H C74 4S42C >5 C74 0BB86=<4=C >5 3428B8>= A867CB >= C74 @D0;8CH >5 2><<D=820C8>= 0=3 >5 C74 K=0; 3428B8>=B C0:4= *74 B8CD0C8>= F4 0=0;HB4 7>F4E4A 8B @D8C4 38S4A4=C = >DA ?0?4A C74A4 0A4 => ;>20; 28A2D<BC0=24B C> F7827 0 3428B8>= B7>D;3 8340;;H 14 030?C43 =>A 8B C74A4 0 =443 C> 2>>A38=0C4 ?4A B4 =BC403 C74A4 8B A>>< 5>A ;40A=8=6 5A>< 4027 >C74ANB ?0BC 4G?4A84=24 C> 834=C85H C74 14CC4A C427=>;>6H A4B8BC0=24 C> 270=64 1420DB4 >5 A4?DC0C8>=0; 2>=24A=B 0=3 ?>BB81;H C74 34B8A4 C> 2>=E8=24 C74 >C74A C> 03>?C >=4NB C427=>;>6H 3D4 C> A4?DC0C8>=0; 2>=24A=B 8= 20B4 >5 6;>10; <0A:4CB 8=0;;H >DA ?0?4A 8B A4;0C43 C> C74 4G8BC8=6 ;8C4A0CDA4 >= ;40A=8=6 5A>< >C74AB *78B ;8C4A0CDA4 8B 7>F4E4A <4C7>3>;>6820;;H @D8C4 38S4A4=C 5A>< >DAB = C74 4G8BC8=6 ;8C4A0CDA4 8C 8B !224,%$ C70C 48C74A 0= 064=C >1B4AE4B C74 CAD4 E0;D4 >5 C74 02C8>=B C0:4= 1H >C74AB F74C74A C74 4=E8A>=<4=C 8B BCA0C4682 >A =>C >A C70C => BD27 8=5>A<0C8>= 8B >1B4AE43 0C 0;; DAC74A<>A4 8=4AC80 8B 0= %7.'%-.42 502C>A >A 4G0<?;4 8= C74 ;8C4A0CDA4 >= F>A3>5 <>DC7 2><<D=820C8>= 8C 8B 0BBD<43 C70C >=;H 0 68E4= 5A02C8>= >5 064=CB D?30C4B 8CB 3428B8>=B >=24 =4F 8=5>A<0C8>= 142><4B 0E08;01;4 = >DA ?0?4A 1>C7 C74 @D0;8CH >5 C74 8=5>A<0C8>= 4G270=64 0=3 C74 346A44 >5 8=4AC80 0A4 4@D8;81A8D< >DC2><4B -4A4 8C =>C 5>A C74 A4?DC0C8>=0; . A8414; 0=3 (08C7
(37). BCD3H 7>F C74 B2>?4 >5 C74 KA< 0S42CB C74 @D0;8CH >5 BCA0C4682 8=5>A<0C8>=. CA0=B<8BB8>= 14CF44= 0 38E8B8>= 0=3 7403 @D0AC4AB )44 C74 38B2DBB8>= >5 B>280; ;40A=8=6 8= 0 BCA0C4682 4G?4A8<4=C0C8>= 60<4 8= 4A64<0== 0=3 ,V;8<V:8
(38). = C78B ;8C4A0CDA4 8C 8B 0BBD<43 C70C 0= 064=C ?4A542C;H >1B4AE4B 1>C7 C74 C427=>;>6H >C74AB DB4 0=3 C74 CAD4 E0;D4 C74H >1C08=. C 8B =>C 2;40A C70C 0= 064=C 85 74 2>D;3 F>D;3 =>C F0=C C> 34E80C4 5A>< 0. BCA0C46H >5 CADC75D;;H A4E40;8=6 C74 E0;D4 >5 C74 C427=>;>6H 74 70B 608=43 4G?4A84=24 F8C7 C B44<B C70C 74 F>D;3 14=4KC 5A>< 4G0664A0C8=6 C74 E0;D4 0B C78B F>D;3 <0:4 03>?C8>= 1H >C74AB <>A4 ;8:4;H B 0 A4BD;C <>A4 ?D1;82 8=5>A<0C8>= F>D;3 142><4 0E08;01;4 01>DC C78B C427=>;>6H 0=3 C74 34E80C>A F>D;3 14=4KC 5A>< 0= 8<?A>E43 4BC8<0C4 >5 C74 C427=>;>6HNB E0;D4. )44 0;0 0=3 >H0; 5>A 0 <>34; >5 ;40A=8=6 8= =>=BCA0C4682 =4CF>A:B 0=3 ;;8B>= 0=3 D34=14A6 0=3 0=4A944 0=3 D34=14A6
(39). 5>A 0=0;HB4B >5 F>A3>5<>DC7 2><<D=820C8>= 8= =>= BCA0C4682 4=E8A>=<4=CB = C74 ;8C4A0CDA4 >= 8=5>A<0C8>=0; 74A38=6 2><<D=820C8>= 14CF44= 3428B8>=<0:4AB 8B 4G2;D343 0;C7>D67 C74 4=E8A>=<4=C 8= =>=BCA0C4682 )44 46 8:7270=30=8 8AB7;4854A 0=3 -4;27 )44 U4;4= "0A8E 0=3 )27>CC4A
(40). 5>A 0 KABC 4G?4A8<4=C0; 0=0;HB8B >5 B>280; ;40A=8=6 5A>< 02C8>=B 0=3 03E824. .
(41) 2>=24A=B C74 ?A>1;4< C74 064=CB 0A4 5028=6 8= >DA <>34; C70C >5 27>>B8=6 >=4 C427=>;>6H >DC >5 <0=H 8B B8<8;0A C> 0 2><<>= E0;D4 10=38C ?A>1;4< 8= F7827 C74 10=38CNB 0A<B A4?A4B4=C C74 C427=>;>684B >5 D=:=>F= 1DC 2><<>= E0;D4
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