• Non ci sono risultati.

State Aid and Tacit Collusion

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Condividi "State Aid and Tacit Collusion"

Copied!
27
0
0

Testo completo

(1)DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. EUI Working Papers ECO 2009/36 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. State Aid and Tacit Collusion. Christoph Bertsch, Claudio Calcagno and Mark Le Quement.

(2)

(3) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. State Aid and Tacit Collusion CHRISTOPH BERTSCH, CLAUDIO CALCAGNO and MARK LE QUEMENT. EUI Working Paper ECO 2009/36.

(4) This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper or other series, the year, and the publisher. The author(s)/editor(s) should inform the Economics Department of the EUI if the paper is to be published elsewhere, and should also assume responsibility for any consequent obligation(s). ISSN 1725-6704. © 2009 Christoph Bertsch, Claudio Calcagno and Mark Le Quement Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy www.eui.eu cadmus.eui.eu.

(5) *F3F7 3;6 3@6 F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ :D;EFAB: 7DFE5:. >3G6;A 3>539@A. $3D= #7 (G7?7@F. GDAB73@ ,@;H7DE;FK @EF;FGF7 5A@A?;5E 7B3DF?7@F H;3 67>>3 ';3LLGA>3  

(6)  ;D7@L7 F3>K. !# 5>3EE;M53F;A@    "  # ;DEF H7DE;A@  !3@G3DK 

(7)

(8)  +:;E H7DE;A@  !G@7 

(9)

(10) .

(11) ()') AF: >;F7D3FGD7 3@6 BA>;5K 6743F7 A@ *F3F7 3;6 AD 9AH7D@?7@F EG4E;6;7E :3H7 8A5GE76 A@ F:7 FD367 AT 47FI77@ F:7 BAF7@F;3> ;@7S5;7@5;7E 53GE76 4K EF3F7 ;@F7DH7@F;A@ ;@7S5;7@F 3>>A53F;A@ A8 D7EAGD57E ?AD3> :3L3D6 3@6 F:7 BAF7@F;3> 93;@E 8DA? ;@F7DH7@F;A@ I:7F:7D D7>3F76 FA F:7 D7EA>GF;A@ A8 ?3D=7F 83;>GD7E AD FA F:7 35:;7H7?7@F A8 EA?7 6;?7@E;A@ A8 EA5;3> 7CG;FK. +:7 6743F7 :AI7H7D :3E ;9@AD76 3@AF:7D ;?BADF3@F @793F;H7 7T75F A8 *F3F7 3;6 9AH7D@?7@FE 4K E7FF;@9 GB 3;6 E5:7?7E FA 3;>;@9 MD?E ?3K ;@5D73E7 F:7 >;=7>;:AA6 A8 F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ ;@ 3@ ;@6GEFDK 5:3D35F7D;E76 4K ;6;AEK@5D3F;5 E:A5=E. @6776 ;@ 3 D7B73F76 93?7 E7FF;@9 3 EKEF7?3F;5 43;>AGF D79;?7 ;@5D73E7E F:7 7JB75F76. BDAMFE A8 3 MD? 8DA? 5AAB7D3F;A@ 3@6 E;?G>F3@7AGE>K D3;E7E F:7 BDA434;>;FK F:3F 5A?B7F;FADE I;>> EF;>> 47 ;@ 4GE;@7EE FA 53DDK AGF BG@;E:?7@F 393;@EF 5:73F7DE. 7EB;F7 F:7 97@7D3>;FK A8 F:7 ?A67> 3@6 A8 ;FE =7K ;@E;9:F I7 EFG6K F:;E BDA4>7? F:DAG9: 3@ 3BB>;53F;A@ FA F:7 43@=;@9 E75FAD 3E ;F :3E D757@F>K 477@ EG4<75F A8 ?G5: 3FF7@F;A@ I;F:;@ F:7 5A@F7JF A8 F:7 A@9A;@9 75A@A?;5 5D;E;E. Keywords: Subsidies, dynamic oligopoly, government policy, banking  .7 3D7 F:3@=8G> FA D3@=>;@ >>7@ >7@3 3D>7FF; 3@6 ';7DA AFF3D6; 8AD F:7;D 5A??7@FE .7 3>EA I;E: FA F:3@= E7?;@3D B3DF;5;B3@FE 3F ,  !3@ '7F7D *;76>3D7= 3@6 >;3@3 -;H;3@A 8AD :7>B8G> 6;E5GEE;A@E.

(12) . #)'$*) $# # "$) +) $#. +:7 M@3@5;3> 5D;E;E 3T75F;@9 F:7 9>A43> 75A@A?K E;@57 

(13)

(14)  ;E A8 EFG@@;@9 BDABADF;A@E 3@6 :3E ;@HA>H76 AD ;E 7JB75F76 FA ;@HA>H7 F:7 43@=DGBF5;7E A8 3 >3D97 @G?47D A8 9>A43> MD?E ;@5>G6;@9 ?3<AD M@3@5;3> ;@EF;FGF;A@E +:7 D3B;6 67F7D;AD3F;A@ A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> 3@6 75A@A?;5 E;FG3F;A@ :3E BDA?BF76 ?3EE;H7 ;@F7DH7@F;A@E 8DA? +D73EGD;7E 3@6 7@FD3> 3@=E F:7 IAD>6 AH7D *F3F7 ;@F7DH7@F;A@ 3@6 ;@ B3DF;5G>3D *F3F7 3;6 :3E 477@ B>3K;@9 3 ?3<AD DA>7 I;F: 9AH7D@?7@FE DGE:;@9 FA D7E5G7 >3D97 8D35F;A@E A8 F:7;D ;@6GEFD;7E B3DF 8DA? F:7 ME53> 4GD67@ F:3F ;F D7BD7E7@FE *F3F7 3;6 7@F3;>E EA?7 F:AD@K >793> 5A@E;67D3F;A@E 7EB75;3>>K ;@ F:7 GDAB73@ ,@;A@ I:7D7 DF  A8 F:7 )A?7 +D73FK 7JB>;5;F>K 8AD4;6E ?73EGD7E F:3F 5A@87D F:DAG9: BG4>;5 D7EAGD57E 75A@A?;5 36H3@F397E FA E7>75F76 7@F;F;7E 3T75F;@9 FD367 +:7 GDAB73@ A??;EE;A@ :3E F:7D78AD7 477@ G@67D BD7EEGD7 FA EA8F7@ ;FE EF3@57 3@6 AI;@9 FA F:7 9D3H;FK A8 F:7 E;FG3F;A@ ;@ &5FA47D 

(15)

(16)  ;F BG4>;E:76 3 A??G@;53F;A@ A@ F:7 3BB>;53F;A@ A8 *F3F7 3;6 DG>7E FA ?73EGD7E F3=7@ ;@ D7>3F;A@ FA M@3@5;3> ;@EF;FGF;A@E ;@ F:7 5A@F7JF A8 F:7 5GDD7@F 9>A43> M@3@5;3> 5D;E;E. +A G@67DEF3@6 F:7 75A@A?;5 ?39@;FG67 A8 F:7 3;6 ;@HA>H76 ;@ D757@F ?A@F:E ;F ;E IADF: @AF;@9 F:3F F:7 @G?47D A8 53E7E ;@ F:7 GDAB73@ ,@;A@ I:7D7 3;6 I3E >793>>K 9D3@F76 9D7I 8DA? 34AGF 

(17)

(18) B7D K73D AH7D F:7 B7D;A6 8DA? 

(19)

(20)  FA 

(21)

(22)  FA AH7D 

(23)

(24)

(25) ;@ 

(26)

(27)  $AD7AH7D F:7 3?AG@F A8 3;6 FA 47 D75AH7D76 ; 7 ;>>793> 3;6 AD EG4E;6;7E F:3F E:AG>6 @AF :3H7 477@ 9D3@F76 4K F:7 H3D;AGE , 5AG@FD;7E 9D7I 8DA? G@67D 

(28) ? ;@ 

(29)

(30)  FA AH7D 

(31)

(32) ? ;@ 

(33)

(34)   DA? 3 F:7AD7F;53> B7DEB75F;H7 ?AEF A8 F:7 6743F7 A@ *F3F7 3;6 AD 9AH7D@?7@F EG4E;6;7E :3E 8A5GE76 A@ F:7 FD367 AT 47FI77@ ;@7S5;7@5;7E 53GE76 4K ;@F7DH7@F;A@ ;@7S5;7@F 3>>A53F;A@ A8 D7EAGD57E ?AD3> :3L3D6 3@6 BAF7@F;3> 93;@E 8A>>AI;@9 8DA? 3;6 ?73EGD7E D9G?7@FE ;@ 83HAGD A8 *F3F7 3;6 D3@97 8DA? 7CG;FK 5A@E;67D3F;A@E FA F:7 BAF7@F;3> D7EA>GF;A@ A8 7J;EF;@9 ?3D=7F 83;>GD7E @ F:7 M@3@5;3> E75FAD 8AD 7J3?B>7 ;@F7DH7@F;A@ ;@5>G6;@9 F:3F A8 3 7@FD3> 3@= ;E A8F7@ <GEF;M76 A@ F:7 9DAG@6E A8 93;@E ;@ F:7 EF34;>;FK A8 F:7 M@3@5;3> EKEF7? 3@=DGBF5;7E A8 ;@6;H;6G3> 43@=E ?3K FD;997D 5A@F39;A@ 7T75FE 35DAEE F:7 E75FAD F:DAG9: F:7 ;@F7D43@= 3@6 3EE7F ?3D=7FE 3@6 ?3K 3>EA :3D? 5A@EG?7DE 6;D75F>K F:DAG9: F:7 >AEE A8 BD;H3F7 67BAE;FE EG4<75F FA @3F;A@3> 67BAE;F ;@EGD3@57 E5:7?7E &@ &S5;3> !AGD@3>  

(35)  

(36) 

(37)

(38)  B397E R  +:7 355A?B3@K;@9 BD7EE D7>73E7 7JB>3;@76 F:3F 3;6 IAG>6 47 3BBDAH76 ;8 %A@ 6;E5D;?;@3FADK 3557EE ;@ AD67D FA BDAF75F F:7 8G@5F;A@;@9 A8 F:7 *;@9>7 $3D=7F 4K ?3=;@9 EGD7 F:3F 7>;9;4;>;FK 8AD 3 EGBBADF E5:7?7 ;E @AF 43E76 A@ @3F;A@3>;FK *F3F7 5A??;F?7@FE FA 47 >;?;F76 ;@ F;?7 ;@ EG5: 3 I3K F:3F ;F ;E 7@EGD76 F:3F EGBBADF 53@ 47 BDAH;676 3E >A@9 3E ;F ;E @757EE3DK FA 5AB7 I;F: F:7 5GDD7@F FGD?A;> ;@ M@3@5;3> ?3D=7FE 4GF I;>> 47 D7H;7I76 3@6 36<GEF76 AD F7D?;@3F76 3E EAA@ 3E ;?BDAH76 ?3D=7F 5A@6;F;A@E EA B7D?;F *F3F7 EGBBADF FA 47 5>73D>K 67M@76 3@6 >;?;F76 ;@ E5AB7 FA I:3F ;E @757EE3DK FA 366D7EE F:7 35GF7 5D;E;E ;@ M@3@5;3> ?3D=7FE I:;>7 7J5>G6;@9 G@<GEF;M76 47@7MFE 8AD E:3D7:A>67DE A8 M@3@5;3> ;@EF;FGF;A@E 3F F:7 F3JB3K7DOE 7JB7@E7 031@ 3BBDABD;3F7 5A@FD;4GF;A@ A8 F:7 BD;H3F7 E75FAD 4K I3K A8 3@ 367CG3F7 D7?G@7D3F;A@ 8AD F:7 ;@FDA6G5F;A@ A8 97@7D3> EGBBADF E5:7?7E EG5: 3E 3 9G3D3@F77 E5:7?7 3@6 F:7 5AH7D397 4K F:7 BD;H3F7 E75FAD A8 3F >73EF 3 E;9@;M53@F B3DF A8 F:7 5AEF A8 3EE;EF3@57 9D3@F76 0E1GS5;7@F 47:3H;AGD3> DG>7E 8AD 47@7M5;3D;7E F:3F BD7H7@F 3@ 34GE7 A8 EF3F7 EGBBADF >;=7 8AD 7J3?B>7 7JB3@E;A@ 3@6 399D7EE;H7 ?3D=7F EFD3F79;7E A@ F:7 435= A8 3 EF3F7 9G3D3@F77 031@ 3BBDABD;3F7 8A>>AI GB 4K EFDG5FGD3> 36<GEF?7@F ?73EGD7E 8AD F:7 M@3@5;3> E75FAD 3E 3 I:A>7 3@6 AD 4K D7EFDG5FGD;@9 ;@6;H;6G3> M@3@5;3> ;@EF;FGF;A@E F:3F :36 FA D7>K A@ EF3F7 ;@F7DH7@F;A@   %AF;57 F:3F F:;E E7D;7E ;E @AF 5G?G>3F;H7 F:3F ;E F:7 3?AG@F =@AI@ FA 47 D75AH7D76 ;@ 

(39)

(40)  A@>K ;@5>G67E @7I 53E7E 6;EBGF76 ;@ 

(41)

(42)  6?;FF76>K F:7E7 EG?E I7D7 3>EA :;9: 478AD7 

(43)

(44)  *AGD57 GDAB73@ A??;EE;A@  A?B7F;F;A@ :FFB 75 7GDAB3 7G 5A?B7F;F;A@ EF3F723;6 EFG6;7E2D7BADFE ?73EGD7E :F?>. .

(45) F:7 AF:7D :3@6 *F3F7 3;6 53@ 6;EFADF F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 BDA57EE BDA?BF;@9 3 ?;E3>>A53F;A@ A8 D7EAGD57E 3E I7>> 3E 5D73F7 ?AD3> :3L3D6 ;8 MD?E 7JB75F F:3F F:7 AH7D@?7@F I;>> ;@F7DH7@7 FA :7>B F:7? ;@ 53E7 A8 83;>GD7 AD ;@ 36H7DE7 5;D5G?EF3@57E ?AD7 97@7D3>>K F:7E7 ?3K :3H7 F:7 ;@57@F;H7 FA F3=7 7J57EE;H7 D;E=E. +:7 75A@A?;5 7T75FE EFG6;76 :3H7 3>I3KE ;?B;@976 A@ MD?EO 0)$'/ -' 47:3H;AGD @ F:;E 3DF;5>7 ;@ 5A@FD3EF I7 67H7>AB 3 E;?B>7 ;@M@;F7 :AD;LA@ ?A67> F:3F E:76E >;9:F A@ 3D7EG>F F:3F FA AGD =@AI>7697 :36 @AF 477@ EFD7EE76 478AD7 3 9AH7D@?7@F BA>;5K 3;?76 3F EKEF7?3F;53>>K D7E5G;@9 MD?E ;@ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 @793F;H7 ;6;AEK@5D3F;5 E:A5=E 835;>;F3F7E F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ A>>GE;A@ ;E 73E;7D FA EGEF3;@ 4753GE7 F:7 BG@;E:?7@F F:D73F 83576 4K 3 MD? ;E ?AD7 7S5;7@F I:;5: ;E ;@ FGD@ 6G7 FA F:7 ;@5D73E76 EGDH;H3> BDA434;>;FK A8 MD?E. @6776 I:7@ MD?E 3D7 9G3D3@F776. FA 47 ;@ 4GE;@7EE ;@ F:7 @7JF B7D;A6E 7JB75F76 8GFGD7 5AAB7D3F;H7 BDAMFE ;@5D73E7 EA F:3F 8AD79A;@9 EG5: BDAMFE ;?B>;7E 3@ ;@5D73E76 ABBADFG@;FK 5AEF GDF:7D?AD7 F:7 9G3D3@F776 BD7E7@57 A8 5A?B7F;FADE ;@ F:7 8GFGD7 ?3=7E F:7 7JB75F76 BG@;E:?7@F :3DE:7D F:3@ ;@ 3@ 7@H;DA@?7@F I:7D7 5A?B7F;FADE ?3K 7J;F F:7 ?3D=7F 6G7 FA 3@ 7JA97@AGE E:A5= I:;5: IAG>6 >73H7 F:7 67H;3@F MD? G@BG@;E:76. @ F:;E B3B7D I7 ;@H7EF;93F7 F:7 ;?B35F A8 *F3F7 3;6 A@ MD?EO ;@57@F;H7E FA F35;F>K 5A>>G67 3@6 ;FE AH7D3>> ;?B35F A@ 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 >F:AG9: F:7 ?A67> 3@6 ;FE ;?B>;53F;A@E 3D7 97@7D3> 3@6 IAG>6 ?3F5: 3@K ;@6GEFDK I7 EFG6K F:;E BDA4>7? F:DAG9: 3@ 3BB>;53F;A@ FA F:7 43@=;@9 E75FAD 3E ;F :3E D757@F>K D757;H76 ?G5: 3FF7@F;A@ 6G7 FA >3D97 43;>AGFE +:;E 3DF;5>7 BDA5776E 3E 8A>>AIE ;@ *75F;A@  I7 4D;7NK 5A@E;67D F:7 D7>7H3@F >;F7D3FGD7 ;@ *75F;A@  I7 BD7E7@F F:7 ?A67> *75F;A@  E:AIE 3@6 6;E5GEE7E F:7 D7EG>FE ;@5>G6;@9 F:7 I7>83D7 3@3>KE;E *75F;A@  5A@5>G67E 3@6 EG997EFE EA?7 7JF7@E;A@E. . !) ! )')*'. +:7D7 ;E @AF 3 H3EF >;F7D3FGD7 A@ F:7 75A@A?;5E A8 *F3F7 3;6 3E EG5:  BAEE;4>K D7N75F;@9 F:7 D;5:@7EE A8 F:7 >;F7D3FGD7 A@ EG4E;6;7E 3@6 FD367 *F3F7 3;6 ;E FKB;53>>K 5D;F;5;E76 4K 75A@A?;EFE 3E ;F >736E FA 3 H3D;7FK A8 ;@7S5;7@5;7E. 7E>7K 3@6 *734D;9:F   6;E5GEE FIA 4DA36 5>3EE7E A8 7T75FE 7JF7D@3>;F;7E 3D;E;@9 8DA? 3;6 EFD3F79;5 FD367 BA>;5K F3J 5A?B7F;F;A@ 3@6 75A@A?;5 97A9D3B:K 5A@E;67D3F;A@E 3@6 ;@7S5;7@F 5A?B7F;F;A@ 47FI77@ 9AH7D@?7@FE. 7I3FD;BA@F 3@6 *734D;9:F 

(46)

(47)  9A 47KA@6 ;@F7D9AH7D@?7@F3> ;EEG7E 3@6 4G;>6 3 ?A67> I:7D7 >A53> BA>;F;5;3@E ;@H7EF ;@ I3EF78G> BDA<75FE BGD7>K FA E:AI F:7;D 6;>;97@57 3@6 I;@ HAF7E A>>;7 

(48)

(49)

(50)  ;@EF736 BDABAE7E 3@ 75A@A?;5 7JB>3@3F;A@ A8 I:K ;@6;H;6G3> EF3F7E ?3K :3H7 3@ ;@57@F;H7 FA EG4E;6;E7 MD?E I;F: F:7 3;? A8 D76G5;@9 A>;9ABA>;EF;5 6;EFADF;A@E 7 E:AIE F:3F 3 ?G>F;>3F7D3> ;@EF;FGF;A@ D7EBA@E;4>7 8AD BDA:;4;F;@9 EG4E;6;7E 53@ ;@5D73E7 I7>83D7.  @ 7JF7@E;H7 D7H;7I A8 F:7 DA>7 3@6 F:7 7T75FE A8 *F3F7 3;6 53@ 47 8AG@6 ;@ %;FE5:7 3@6 7;6:G7E 

(51)

(52)  AD 3@ 7CG3>>K BA>;5K AD;7@F76 3BBDA35: 43E76 A@ 75A@A?;5 F:7ADK F:7 D7367D ;E 3>EA 6;D75F76 FA &+ 

(53)

(54)  3@6 G7>7@E 7F 3> 

(55)

(56) . .

(57) D;767D;EL;5= 7F 3> 

(58)

(59)  D7H;7I F:7 7S5;7@5K D3F;A@3>7E 8AD 3;6 F35=>;@9 ?3D=7F 83;>GD7E EG5: 3E 7JF7D@3>;F;7E BG4>;5 9AA6E 3EK??7FD;5 ;@8AD?3F;A@ 3@6 >35= A8 5AAD6;@3F;A@ 3E I7>> 3E 7CG;FK 5A@E;67D3F;A@E +:7K 3>EA BA;@F FAI3D6E 5DAEE 4AD67D BAE;F;H7 7JF7D@3>;F;7E ;@ F:7 53E7 A8 , *F3F7 3;6 +:7;D B3B7D F:7@ :;9:>;9:FE F:7 BAF7@F;3> 5AEFE A8 *F3F7 3;6 47KA@6 F:7 6;D75F 5AEF A8 ;@F7DH7@F;A@ EG5: 3E 3@F; 5A?B7F;F;H7 7T75FE PB;5=;@9 IDA@9 I;@@7DEQ 3@6 ;@F7D@3F;A@3> EB;>>AH7D 7T75FE ?A@9 F:7 BAF7@F;3> 6;EFADF;A@E A8 5A?B7F;F;A@ F:7K >;EF F:7 EGBBADF A8 ;@7S5;7@F BDA6G5F;A@ F:7 6;EFADF;A@ A8 6K@3?;5 ;@F7D F7?BAD3> ;@57@F;H7E F:7 BAF7@F;3> ;@5D73E7 ;@ ?3D=7F BAI7D 3@6 F:7 6;EFADF;A@ A8 BDA6G5F;A@ 3@6 >A53F;A@ 675;E;A@E 35DAEE , 5AG@FD;7E ;@3>>K F:7K BDABAE7 3@ 35FG3> 7T75FE 43E76 8D3?7IAD= FA 3EE7EE I:7F:7D B3DF;5G>3D *F3F7 3;6 ?73EGD7E E:AG>6 47 3BBDAH76 $3DF;@ 3@6 -3>4A@7E; 

(60)

(61)  67H7>AB 3 ?A67> A8 F:7 ;?B35F A8 *F3F7 3;6 A@ ?3D=7F EFDG5FGD7 3@6 B7D8AD?3@57 ;@ 3@ ;@F79D3F;@9 ?3D=7F ; 7 3 5A??A@ ?3D=7F I;F: ;@5D73E;@9 FD367 NAIE 3@6 M@6 F:3F ;@ 7CG;>;4D;G? 9AH7D@?7@FE 9D3@F *F3F7 3;6 D76G5;@9 5A??A@ ?3D=7F I7>83D7 AI7H7D F:7K A@>K 8A5GE A@ @A@ 5AAB7D3F;H7 7CG;>;4D;3. E 6;E5GEE76 34AH7 ;@ F:7 53E7 A8 43@=;@9 ;F ?3K 47 47@7M5;3> FA E35D;M57 EA?7 >7H7> A8 5A?B7F;F;A@ ;@ F:7 ;@F7D7EF A8 M@3@5;3> EF34;>;FK  :AI7H7D F:;E D7>3F;A@E:;B ;E D3F:7D 5A?B>7J 3@6 D7EG>FE 3D7 83D 8DA? 47;@9 5>73D 5GF 3E E:AI@ 4K >>7@ 3@6 3>7 

(62)

(63)  +:;E ;E @7H7DF:7>7EE 47KA@6 F:7 E5AB7 A8 AGD B3B7D E;@57 I7 A@>K F3=7 43@=;@9 3E 3@ 7J3?B>7 3@6 AGD ?A67> ;E @AF E75FAD EB75;M5 )3F:7D I7 E;?B>K BA;@F FAI3D6E EA?7 IAD= A@ ;?B7D875F 5A?B7F;F;A@ ;@ 43@=;@9 ;@ 6K@3?;5 E7FGBE 7>>?3@ 7F 3> 

(64)

(65)

(66)  E:AI F:3F ;@ 3 6K@3?;5 ?A67> 67BAE;F D3F7 5A@FDA>E 53@ 47 EGB7D;AD FA 5AEF>K D79G>3F;A@  +:7K 7JB>AD7 F:7 ;@F7D35F;A@ 47FI77@ M@3@5;3> >;47D3>;E3F;A@ 3@6 BDG67@F;3> D79G>3F;A@ 3@6 M@6 F:3F 53B;F3> D7CG;D7?7@FE F:AG9: 5AEF>K 53@ BD7H7@F 43@=E 8DA? 7J57EE;H7 D;E= F3=;@9 ;@ 3 EF3F;5 ?A67> K 5A@FD3EF F:;E BAE;F;H7 7T75F 5A?7E 3F 3 H7DK :;9: 5AEF ;@ 3 6K@3?;5 ?A67> 4753GE7 A8 F:7 4GE;@7EE EF73>;@9 7T75F F:3F ;@6G57E 43@=E FA ABF 8AD D;E=;7D EFD3F79;7E F:3@ F:7;D 5A?B7F;FADE 3@6 AT7D 47FF7D ;@F7D7EF D3F7E FA 67BAE;FADE ;@ AD67D FA 5A>>75F ?AD7 67BAE;FE '7DAFF; 3@6 *G3D7L 

(67)

(68)  ;@H7EF;93F7 F:7 ;?B35F A8 5A?B7F;F;A@ A@ F:7 D;E=;@7EE A8 43@=EO BADF8A>;A 5:A;57E @ B3DF;5G>3D F:7K 7J3?;@7 F:7 D7>3F;A@E:;B 47FI77@ F:7 ABF;?3> D;E=;@7EE A8 BADF8A>;A 5:A;57 3@6 43@=;@9 D79G>3F;A@ ?7D97D BA>;5K 3@6 ?3D=7F 7@FDK D79G>3F;A@ ;@ 3@ A>;9ABA>K 5A@F7JF +:7 ?3;@ ?75:3@;E? ;@ F:7;D ?A67> ;E 3 EFD3F79;5 EG4EF;FGF34;>;FK 47FI77@ BADF8A>;A 675;E;A@E A8 6GABA>;EF;5 43@=E @ B3DF;5G>3D 3 9;H7@ 6GABA>;EF :3E 3@ ;@57@F;H7 FA ;@H7EF ;@ F:7 BDG67@F 3EE7F ;8 F:7 5A?B7F;FAD 5:AAE7E 3 D;E=K EFD3F79K E;@57 E:7 53@ 7JB75F :;9: ?A@ABA>K 47@7MFE ;8 F:7 5A?B7F;FAD 83;>E. @ ;@6GEFD;3> 75A@A?;5E ?A67>E A8 F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ :3H7 477@ :73H;>K 3BB>;76 4GF @AF ;@ F:7 5A@F7JF A8 *F3F7 3;6 .7 F3=7 3 EF3@63D6 8D3?7IAD= A8 F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 8AD D7B73F76 A>;9ABA>K ;@F7D35F;A@ AD;9;@3>>K 6G7 FA *F;9>7D  *77. 3D>7FF; 

(69)

(70)  8AD 3@ 7J57>>7@F EGDH7K. 7F 3> 

(71)

(72)

(73)  6A @AF ?A67> ;?B7D875F 5A?B7F;F;A@ 7JB>;5;F>K 4GF ?3=7 3EEG?BF;A@E A@ 67D;H3F;H7E A8 F:7 67BAE;F 67?3@6 8G@5F;A@ *77 )7BG>>A 

(74)

(75)  8AD 3@ 7JB>;5;F ?A67>>;@9 A8 ;?B7D875F 5A?B7F;F;A@ F:3F 67>;H7DE EA?7 366;F;A@3> ;@E;9:FE.  7>>?3@. .

(76)   3@6 3@3>KE7 F:7 7T75F A8 *F3F7 3;6 ;@ 3@ 3BB>;53F;A@ FA F:7 43@=;@9 ;@6GEFDK. . $!. .7 67H7>AB 3 ?A67> A@ F:7 D7>3F;A@E:;B A8 *F3F7 3;6 3@6 F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ F:DAG9: 3@ 3BB>;53F;A@ FA F:7 43@=;@9 ;@6GEFDK +:7 ?75:3@;E? I7 67E5D;47 ;E @AF EB75;M5 FA F:7 M@3@5;3> ;@6GEFDK 3@6 53@ 47 D736;>K FD3@EBAE76 FA AF:7D ;@6GEFD;7E 3@6 I7 ;@6;53F7 AH7D F:7 5AGDE7 A8 F:7 3@3>KE;E :AI F:7 97@7D3> E7FGB 53@ 47 FD3@E>3F76 FA AF:7D E75FADE. +:7 EF3DF;@9 4>A5= A8 AGD ?A67> ;E D7;J3E 3@6 )A5:7FOE 

(77)

(78)  7JF7@E;A@ A8 F:7 ">7;@ $A@F; ?A67> FA AGD@AF A>;9ABA>K +:7 AD;9;@3> ?A@ABA>;EF;5 ?A67> 873FGD7E 3 E;@9>7 43@= 835;@9 3@ GBI3D6 E>AB;@9 67?3@6 8AD 67BAE;F 3@6 3 6AI@I3D6 E>AB;@9 67?3@6 8AD >A3@E  +A E:76 >;9:F A@ F:7 ;?B35F A8 *F3F7 3;6 A@ F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 3@6 I7>83D7 AGD ?A67> I;>> ?3=7 E;?B>;M53F;A@E I;F: D7EB75F FA D7;J3E 3@6 )A5:7F 

(79)

(80)  @ AGD 75A@A?K F:7 43@=;@9 ;@6GEFDK ;E 5:3D35F7D;E76 4K 3 6GABA>K 5A?B7F;@9 ;@ F:7 67BAE;F ?3D=7F AH7D 3@ ;@M@;F7 :AD;LA@ .7 5A@E;67D F;?7 ;@ 3 6;E5D7F7 83E:;A@ 'DA6G5F;A@ ?3@397?7@F 5AEFE 3D7 @AD?3>;E76 FA  3@=E E;?G>F3@7AGE>K E7F ;@F7D7EF D3F7E  3@6   I:7D7     +:7 >;@73D 67?3@6 8G@5F;A@ ;E 9;H7@ 4K      

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

(82)

(83) .  *77 ">7;@    3@6 $A@F;  .  @ 3@AF:7D ;@6GEFDK A@7 5AG>6 3D9G7 F:3F MD?E 53@ 47 :;F I;F: 3 57DF3;@ BDA434;>;FK ;@ 735: B7D;A6 4K 3 5AEF E:A5= AD 3 E:A5= A@ F:7;D BDA6G5F;A@ F75:@A>A9K F:3F 8AD57E F:7? FA >73H7 F:7 ?3D=7F.  ;E5AG@F 835FADE AH7D ;@M@;F7 :AD;LA@ 93?7E 3D7 A8F7@ ;@F7DBD7F76 3E F:7 BDA434;>;FK F:3F F:7 93?7 I;>> 35FG3>>K 47 B>3K76 ;@ 3 9;H7@ B7D;A6 EA 3E FA ;?B>;5;F>K D7>3J F:7 ;@M@;F7 :AD;LA@ ;@F7DBD7F3F;A@ %AF7 F:3F F:;E ;E 6;T7D7@F 8DA? F:7 36H7DE7 E:A5=E F:3F I7 ;@FDA6G57 I;F: BDA4  3E F:7E7 3D7 $$*.4)-/$. .

(84) ;9GD7  +;?7>;@7 A8 F:7 93?7 At each time t:. Banks stay (pay gross interest) or exit (c. k.). Consumers choose their bank r1, r2 are set (common knowledge). Shocks realise RH (p) and RL (1-p) (c. k.). Time. Individuals receive capital plus interest and consume it (p) or lose everything (1-p). H7DK B7D;A6 43@= 

(85)  ?3J;?;E7E BDAMFE          4K 5:AAE;@9  .7 3EEG?7 F:3F F:7 ?3D=7F 67BAE;FE 3@6 BDAMFE ;E 7CG3>>K E:3D76 4K F:7 43@=E I:7@ F:7K E7F F:7 E3?7 ;@F7D7EF D3F7 ?BADF3@F>K I:7@ 3 43@= D757;H7E 3 436 E:A5=   ;F ;E 8AD576 AGF A8 F:7 ?3D=7F 3E ;@ '7DAFF; 3@6 *G3D7L 

(86)

(87)  F 9A7E 43@=DGBF 4753GE7 ;F 53@@AF D7B3K 67BAE;FADE 3@6 ;FE 3GF:AD;E3F;A@ FA AB7D3F7 ;E @AF D7@7I76 .7 ?3=7 F:7 8A>>AI;@9 3EEG?BF;A@ $# ) $# . .  . +:;E 5A@6;F;A@ ;E @757EE3DK FA 7@EGD7 BAE;F;H7 >7H7>E A8 I7>83D7

(88) %AF34>K 43@=E I;>> E7F ;@F7D7EF D3F7E A@>K F3=;@9 F:7 9AA6 EF3F7 A8 F:7 IAD>6   ;@FA 355AG@F 8 3 43@= ;E 3>A@7 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F BDAMF ?3J;?;E3F;A@ >736E   FA 

(89)    

(90)  3@6 

(91)  A?B7F;F;A@ 4K 5A@FD3EF >736E FA 

(92)   3@6  

(93)    3@6 

(94)  #7F GE 67M@7 

(95)   3E F:7 5A@EG?7D EGDB>GE 3F F:7 ?A@ABA>K AD 5A>>GE;H7 BD;57 >7H7> 3@6 

(96).   . 3E F:7 5A@EG?7D EGDB>GE G@67D B7D875F 5A?B7F;F;A@. +:7 @7JF 7>7?7@F ;@ AGD 75A@A?K ;E 3 @3F;A@3> 67BAE;F ;@EGD3@57 E5:7?7 % * 5AH7D;@9

(97)

(98)  A8 67BAE;FE. 7@57 I:7@ 3 43@= 9A7E 43@=DGBF 67BAE;FADE 3D7 D7FGD@76 F:7;D ;@;F;3> ;@H7EF?7@FE I;F:AGF ;@F7D7EF +:7 % * ;E 8G@676 4K N3F D3F7 F3J7E +:7 E;L7 A8 F:7 ;@EGD3@57 E5:7?7 ;E 

(99)   I:7@7H7D A@7 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>;EF 43@= 83;>E 

(100)   I:7@7H7D 3 ?A@ABA>;EF 43@= 83;>E AD 4AF: 43@=E ;@ 3 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>K 83;> 

(101) 

(102)   I:7@7H7D 43@=E 5A?B7F7 3@6 A@7 D757;H7E 3 436 E:A5= 

(103) 

(104)  I:7@7H7D 43@=E 5A?B7F7 3@6 4AF: D757;H7 3 436 E:A5=. %AF;57 F:3F F:7 ;@FDA6G5F;A@ A8 F:7 67BAE;F ;@EGD3@57 E5:7?7 ;E @AF A@>K 5DG5;3> I;F:;@ F:7 5A@F7JF A8 3 43@=;@9 ?A67> 4GF ;F 3>EA 97@7D3F7E FIA ;?BADF3@F 873FGD7E ;DEF ;F 7@34>7E GE FA ;EA>3F7 F:7 7T75F A8 *F3F7 3;6 A@ 5A>>75F;H7

(105) ,@67D. EA . D73EA@34>7 B3D3?7F7D 3EEG?BF;A@E I7 :3H7     ;E @AF B3DF;5G>3D>K :;9:.   . . 7 9 8AD  3@6   I7 :3H7    D753>>  .

(106) 5A?B7F;F;H7 47:3H;AD I:7@ I7 5A?B3D7 EA5;3> I7>83D7 G@67D 3 *F3F7 3;6 3@6 3 %A *F3F7 3;6 D79;?7 +:;E 8A>>AIE 8DA? F:7 835F F:3F 67BAE;FADE 97F F:7;D 67BAE;FE 8G>>K D78G@676 G@67D 4AF: D79;?7E I:7@7H7D 3 43@= 83;>E I:;>7 F:7 M@3@5;@9 A8 F:7 E5:7?7 ;E 6A@7 4K 3 @A@ 6;EFADF;A@3DK F3J ;@ 4AF: D79;?7E *75A@6 F:7 ;@FDA6G5F;A@ A8 67BAE;F ;@EGD3@57 ?3=7E AGD ?A67> D736;>K 5A?B3D34>7 FA 3BB>;53F;A@E FA AF:7D ;@6GEFD;7E I:7D7 F:7 83;>GD7 A8 3 MD? 6A7E @AF 53GE7 3@ ;??76;3F7 >AEE ;@ I73>F: FA ;FE 5GEFA?7DE. ;9GD7  EG??3D;E7E 9D3B:;53>>K F:7 34AH7 6;E5GEE;A@ %AF;57 F:3F 3E F:7 67?3@6 E5:76G>7 ;E GBI3D6 E>AB;@9 F:7 H3D;AGE 3D73E ;@ F:7 9D3B: BDAMF  5A@EG?7D EGDB>GE 3@6 6736I7;9:F >AEE AD .# 3D7 ;@H7DF76 :AD;LA@F3>>K I;F: D7EB75F FA 3 FD36;F;A@3> 6;39D3??3F;5 3@3>KE;E A8 >;@73D 67?3@6E AD E;?B>;5;FK I7 :3H7 A@>K 67B;5F76 F:7 BAF7@F;3> >AEE 8DA? 43@=DGBF5K   ;@ F:7 53E7 A8 ?A@ABA>K %AF;57 F:7 3@3>A9K FA 3 ?A67> A8 6GABA>;EF;5 5A?B7F;F;A@ ;@ 3 @A@ 43@=;@9 ;@6GEFDK I;F: 3 6AI@I3D6 E>AB;@9 67?3@6 5GDH7. ;9GD7   E;?B>7 ?A67> A8 67?3@6 8AD 67BAE;FE. ;@3>>K I7 67M@7 *F3F7 3;6 3>EA M@3@576 F:DAG9: >G?B EG? F3J7E 3E F:7 8A>>AI;@9 5G?G>3F;H7 35F;A@E ;DEF F:7 *F3F7 D7@7IE F:7 43@=OE 3GF:AD;E3F;A@ FA AB7D3F7 7H7@ I:7@ F:7 43@= :3E 9A@7 43@=DGBF *75A@6 F:7 *F3F7 ;@5GDE 3 EG@= 5AEF  B7D 43@= D7E5G7 .7 6A @AF 7JB>;5;F>K ?A67> :AI F:;E 5AEF 3D;E7E 4GF ;F 5AG>6 8AD ;@EF3@57 47 <GEF;M76 3E F:7 5AEF A8 D7EAGD57E 67HAF76 4K F:7 M@3@5;3> D79G>3FAD FA 7J3?;@7 F:7 4AA=E A8 83;>;@9 43@= 3@6 835;>;F3F7 ;FE D7E5G7 @ 3 @A@ M@3@5;3> ;@6GEFDK F:;E 5AEF 5AG>6 8AD ;@EF3@57 3D;E7 8DA? 5AEF>K D7EFDG5FGD;@9 %AF;57 F:3F I7 6A @AF ;?BAE7 3@K 3EEG?BF;A@ A@  @EF736 ;@ F:7 I7>83D7 3@3>KE;E E75F;A@ I7 67F7D?;@7 GBB7D 4AG@6E A@ ;FE H3>G7 EG5: F:3F F:7 3;6 BA>;5K ;E I7>83D7 7@:3@5;@9 FA 5A@EG?7DE. .

(107) E ?7@F;A@76 73D>;7D F:7 % * ;E ;@67B7@67@F A8 I:7F:7D F:7D7 ;E 3 *F3F7 3;6 BA>;5K :AI7H7D ;@ FAF3> F7D?E F:7 % * I;>> 47 5AEF>;7D ;@ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 3 *F3F7 3;6 D79;?7 E;@57 43@=E 3D7 3>I3KE D7E5G76 3@6 53@ 83;> E7H7D3> F;?7E I:7D73E ;@ 34E7@57 A8 *F3F7 3;6 F:7D7 53@ 47 FIA 43@=DGBF5;7E 3F ?AEF ;@ F:7 75A@A?K +:7 % * ;E 3 43@=;@9 EB75;M5 5A@57BF 4GF 3E F:7 % * ;E 7J35F>K ?3F5:76 ;@ E;L7 4K 3 >G?B EG? F3J AGD 8D3?7IAD= ;E 97@7D3> 3@6 9A7E 47KA@6 F:7 BD7E7@F76 3BB>;53F;A@ FA F:7 43@=;@9 E75FAD. (*!)(. @ F:;E E75F;A@ I7 MDEF 67?A@EFD3F7 F:3F F:7 ;@FDA6G5F;A@ A8 *F3F7 3;6 675D73E7E F:7 ?;@;?3> 6;E5AG@F 835FAD 8AD I:;5: F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ ;E BAEE;4>7 +:;E ;?B>;7E F:3F F:7D7 ;E 3 D3@97 A8 H3>G7E A8 F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD 8AD I:;5: F:7 ;?B>7?7@F3F;A@ A8 *F3F7 3;6 53GE7E 3 5:3@97 ;@ F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 EF3F7 A8 F:7 75A@A?K 8DA? 5A?B7F;F;A@ FA 5A>>GE;A@. %7JF I7 7J3?;@7 F:7 ;?B>;53F;A@E A8 F:;E D7EG>F 8AD F:7 I7>83D7 7T75FE A8 3 *F3F7 3;6 BA>;5K .7 67?A@EFD3F7 F:3F 8AD F:;E D3@97 A8 H3>G7E A8 F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD *F3F7 3;6 3>I3KE 3T75FE I7>83D7 @793F;H7>K I:;>7 ;F :3E 3 BAE;F;H7 7T75F 8AD 3>> AF:7D H3>G7E A8 F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD ;8 F:7 ;@FD;@E;5 5AEF A8 D7E5G;@9  ;E @AF FAA :;9:. . ' ) !  ($*#) )$'(. .7 EGBBAE7 3 5A>>GE;H7 D79;?7 ;@ I:;5: MD?E 36ABF 3 E;?B>7 FD;997D EFD3F79K 4K 5:3D9;@9 F:7 5A>>GE;H7 BD;57 3E >A@9 3E @A A@7 ;@ F:7 53DF7> 67875FE 3@6 D7H7DF;@9 FA F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 BD;57 3E EAA@ 3E A@7 MD? :3E 67875F76 8DA? F:7 F35;F 5A>>GE;H7 39D77?7@F. +:7 MDEF EF7B ;E FA 67D;H7 F:7 5D;F;53> 6;E5AG@F 835FADE 34AH7 I:;5: F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ ;E EGEF3;@34>7 G@67D 735: BA>;5K D79;?7 @ F:7 53E7 A8 @A *F3F7 3;6 F:7 5A>>GE;H7 BDAMFE @776 FA 7?476 F:7 BDA434;>;FK F:3F 3 MD? 475A?7E 3 ?A@ABA>;EF ;8 F:7 5A?B7F;FAD D757;H7E 3 @793F;H7 E:A5= 3E I7>> 3E F:7 BDA434;>;FK F:3F F:7 MD? ;FE7>8 9A7E 43@=DGBF. +:7 BDAMFE ;@ F:7 B7D;A6 A8 67H;3F;A@ 3>EA @776 FA 355AG@F 8AD F:7 BDA434;>;FK F:3F F:7 67H;3F;@9 MD? 9A7E 43@=DGBF E;@57 F:7 E:A5= A55GDE 38F7D ?3D=7F 5A@6G5F ;E 5:AE7@ #;=7I;E7 BG@;E:?7@F BDAMFE 8DA? @7JF B7D;A6 A@I3D6E @776 FA 7@5A?B3EE F:7 BAEE;4;>;FK F:3F F:7 67H;3F;@9 MD? I;>> 35FG3>>K 47 3 ?A@ABA>;EF 8AD EA?7 F;?7 3E I7>> 3E F:7 BAEE;4;>;FK F:3F F:7 67H;3F;@9 MD? 9A7E AGF A8 4GE;@7EE. .;F:AGF *F3F7 3;6 F:7 ;@57@F;H7 5A?B3F;4;>;FK 5A@EFD3;@F   8AD F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ I:;5: I7 8G>>K 67D;H7 ;@. .

(108) BB7@6;J  >AA=E 3E 8A>>AIE 'D7E7@F H3>G7 A8 7JB 75F76 BDAMFE G@67D 5A>>GE;A@.   .  .  .  

(109).         .  . .   . .              .  . . JB 75F76 ;@EF3@F3@7AGE BDAMF 8DA? 67H;3F;@9. . . 'D7E7@F H3>G7 A8 7JB 75F76 BDAMF G@67D BG@;E:? 7@F. %AF;@9 F:3F  

(110)  F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 53@ 47 EGEF3;@76 8AD 3>>   

(111) 

(112).  . .;F: *F3F7 3;6 4K 5A@FD3EF 3 43@= F:3F :3E D757;H76 3 436 E:A5= ;E D7E5G76 3F @A 5AEF FA ;F +:7D7 ;E @A BDAMF @AD >AEE ;@ F:7 B7D;A6 A8 83;>GD7 %AF;@9 A@57 393;@ F:3F F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 BDAMF ;E L7DA 7H7DK B7D;A6 I7 E7F GB F:7 8A>>AI;@9 .    .   . .                         .  . . *A F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 53@ 47 EGEF3;@76 8AD 3>>    

(113)  +:;E ;E F:7 FD36;F;A@3> D7EG>F A4F3;@76 ;@ 3 EGB7D93?7 I:7D7 EK??7FD;5 6GABA>;EFE 5A?B7F7 A@ BD;57 +:7 A@>K 6;T7D7@57 ;E F:3F 4AF: F:7 5A>>GE;H7 BDAMF 3@6 F:7 67H;3F;A@ BDAMF :3H7 FA 47 E53>76 4K F:7 BDA434;>;FK A8 D757;H;@9 3 9AA6 E:A5= :AI7H7D F:7 35FG3> BDA434;>;FK  53@57>E AGF. ;9GD7  BDAH;67E 3 9D3B:;53> D7BD7E7@F3F;A@ A8 F:;E D7EG>F .:7@ 43@=E B>357 >;FF>7 H3>G7 A@ F:7 8GFGD7 >78F :3>8 A8 F:7 5:3DF F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 53@@AF 47 EGEF3;@76 D793D6>7EE A8 I:7F:7D F:7D7 ;E *F3F7 3;6 .:7@ 43@=E 53D7 ?G5: 34AGF F:7 8GFGD7 D7>3F;H7 FA F:7 >;=7>;:AA6 A8 3 9AA6 E:A5=  .   . ; 7 F:7 3D73 3F F:7 FAB D;9:F 5AD@7D F35;F. 5A>>GE;A@ 53@ 47 EGEF3;@76 ;@ 7;F:7D D79;?7 ;@3>>K 8AD ;@F7D?76;3F7 H3>G7E A8 F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD     .   . ; 7 F:7 3D73 3F F:7 4AFFA? D;9:F A@>K F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 AGF5A?7 ;E EGEF3;@34>7 ;@ F:7 34E7@57 A8 3@ 3;6 BA>;5K I:;>7 F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ ;E ?367 BAEE;4>7 4K 3 *F3F7 3;6 BA>;5K. +:7 D7EG>FE 3D7 EG??3D;E76 ;@ 'DABAE;F;A@  '$%$( ) $#       

(114). 

(115) ) /# +- . ) *! $$*.4)-/$ .#*&.  // $ +*'$4 /#/ & +. )&. 6-(. $) 0.$) .. !/ -  .#*& !$'$// . /$/ *''0.$*) /#/ $. /$/ *''0.$*) )  .0./$)  !*- '*2 - 1'0 . *! $.*0)/ !/*-. '$$ +:7 BDAA8 A8 ;E FD;H;3> 3E.  .

(116)   

(117) 

(118).   .

(119)   . .

(120) ;9GD7  'DA434;>;FK A8 9AA6 E:A5= A55GDD;@9 3@6 6;E5AG@F 835FADE 67F7D?;@9 5A>>GE;H7 HE 5A?B7F;F;H7 AGF5A?7E p 1.0. Collusion in both regimes. 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6. Competition without aid. Competition in both regimes. 0.5 0.4. BUT. 0.3. Collusion with aid. 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0. 0.1. 0.2. 0.3. 0.4. 0.5. 0.6. 0.7. 0.8. 0.9. 1.0. Delta. . !'. @ F:7 >3EF E75F;A@ I7 7J3?;@76 F:7 D7>3F;A@ 47FI77@ 5A?B7F;F;H7 47:3H;AGD 3@6 F:7 7JA97@AGE 6;E5AG@F 835FAD 8AD F:7 FIA D79;?7E *F3F7 3;6 3@6 @A *F3F7 3;6 .7 67D;H76 FIA 5D;F;53> 6;E5AG@F 835FADE F:3F 67M@76 F:D77 D79;A@E ;@ F:7    B3D3?7F7D EB357 3?A@9 I:;5: A@7 ;E 5:3D35F7D;E76 4K 3 6;T7D7@57 ;@ 5A>>GE;H7 47:3H;AD G@67D F:7 FIA BA>;5K D79;?7E .7 @AI B7D8AD? 3 5A?B3D;EA@ A8 EA5;3> I7>83D7 G@67D F:7 FIA D79;?7E 3@6 EG??3D;E7 AGD D7EG>FE ;@ 'DABAE;F;A@  3F F:7 7@6 A8 F:7 E75F;A@. . $ ))  . #' $!!*( $#  .   . +:7 7J7D5;E7 :7D7 ;E FA 53BFGD7 3>> BAEE;4>7 E57@3D;AE @3?7>K 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>K 3@6. ?A@ABA>K 5A@E;67D;@9 3>> F:7 BAEE;4>7 5A?4;@3F;A@E A8 7H7@FE 9AA6 3@6 436 E:A5=E 35: E57@3D;A I;>> 47 53DD;76 AGF I;F: 3 57DF3;@ BDA434;>;FK 3@6 I;>> 7@F3;> 3 57DF3;@ I7>83D7 >7H7> ;@5>G6;@9 F:7 F3J >7H7> FAA I:;5: 3D7 8G>>K 67D;H76 ;@ BB7@6;J   JB75F76 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 G@67D 3 :;9: 7@AG9: 6;E5AG@F 835FAD FA EGEF3;@ F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 3@6 ;@ F:7 34E7@57 A8 *F3F7 3;6 ;E 5A?BGF76 FA 47

(121) 

(122)  .                  

(123)        .

(124). .

(125) %AF7 F:3F A@6;F;A@ 3EEGD7E BAE;F;H7 I7>83D7 >7H7>E #' #$ $!!*( $#  .   . 7D7 I7 53DDK AGF F:7 3@3>A9AGE 7J7D5;E7 :AI7H7D 6G7 FA F:7 >AI7D 6;E5AG@F. 835FAD F:7D7 53@ A@>K 47 7;F:7D 3 ?A@ABA>K ;8 F:7 5A?B7F;FAD :3E D757;H76 3 436 E:A5= AD 3 5A?B7F;F;H7 6GABA>K. @ 7;F:7D 53E7 F:7D7 53@ 47 9AA6 AD 436 E:A5=E ;@ F:7 >3FF7D ;F 5AG>6 47 F:3F A@>K A@7 43@= D757;H7E F:7 436 E:A5= ;@ F:7 >3EF B7D;A6 +:7 7JB75F76 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 ;@ F:7 34E7@57 A8 3;6 G@67D 3 >AI 7@AG9: 6;E5AG@F 835FAD FA 9G3D3@F77 5A?B7F;F;A@ 3@6 ;@ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 4AF: 43@=E A@ F:7 ?3D=7F ;E 9;H7@ 3E 8A>>AIE 

(126) 

(127)

(128)  

(129).      .    . .        .  . . *77 ;@ BB7@6;J   8AD F:7 67D;H3F;A@ 93;@ A@6;F;A@ 7@EGD7E BAE;F;H7 I7>83D7 >7H7>E. . ))  . .7 BDA5776 ;@ F:7 E3?7 83E:;A@ 3E ;@ EG4E75F;A@  . AI7H7D :7D7 43@=E @7H7D 7J;F .:7@ 5A@EG?7DEO 67BAE;FE 3D7 >AEF 6G7 FA F:7 436 E:A5=E F:7 AH7D@?7@F D78G@6E F:7? F:7 AD;9;@3> 53B;F3> 3E I7>> 3E B3K;@9 F:7 6;D75F D7E5G;@9 5AEFE  +A 5>AE7 F:7 ?A67> I7 @776 FA 5A?BGF7 F:7 FAF3> 7JB75F76 EFD73? A8 3;6 3@6 E7F GB 3 5ADD7EBA@6;@9 >G?B EG? F3J I:;5: ;@5>G67E F:7 M@3@5;@9 A8 4AF: F:7 % * 3@6 F:7 6;D75F D7E5G;@9 5AEFE  A@ 5A@EG?7DE F:GE D76G5;@9 F:7;D I7>83D7. #' $!!*( $#     @ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 *F3F7 3;6 F:7 7JB75F76 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 G@67D 3 :;9: 7@AG9: 6;E5AG@F 835FAD FA EGEF3;@ F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ ;E

(130)  .

(131). . .             . . . #' #$ $!!*( $#     @ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 *F3F7 3;6 F:7 7JB75F76 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 G@67D 3 6;E5AG@F 835FAD >AI 7@AG9: FA 9G3D3@F77 5A?B7F;F;A@ I:7@ 4AF: 43@=E 3D7 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F ;E

(132) 

(133)  

(134) +A.              . E77 F:;E @AF;57 F:3F         ;8   . 7JB75F76 I7>83D7 FA 47 BAE;F;H7 I7 @776 FA :3H7.  .  

(135)   .      .        ;8    $AD7AH7D     AD     .     

(136)       I:;5: ;E 3EEGD76 E;@57    .  . 3@6.   . . .

(137) . *""'. #  (*(( $# $ ) '(*!)(. 3H;@9 67D;H76 F:7E7 8AGD 47@5:?3D= >7H7>E A8 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 5ADD7EBA@6;@9 FA F:7 FIA BAEE;4>7 BA>;5K D79;?7E 3@6 F:7 FIA BAEE;4>7 5A?B7F;F;H7 D79;?7E ;F ;E ;@EFDG5F;H7 FA B>AF F:7? <A;@F>K ;@ 3 6;39D3? .7 6A EA ;@ ;9GD7  . +:7 :AD;LA@F3> 3J;E 5ADD7EBA@6E FA F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD  +:D77 D7>7H3@F D79;A@E 53@ 47 ;67@F;M76 @ F:7 >78F D79;A@     43@=E 5A?B7F7 I;F: 735: AF:7D D793D6>7EE A8 I:7F:7D F:7D7 ;E *F3F7 3;6 @ F:7 D;9:F D79;A@  .   . F35;F. 5A>>GE;A@ 53@ 47 EGEF3;@76 ;@ 7;F:7D D79;?7 AI7H7D ;@ F:7 57@FD3> D79;A@ F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ 53@ *)'4 47 EGEF3;@76 ;@ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 *F3F7 3;6 @ F:7 >78F 3@6 ;@ F:7 D;9:F D79;A@E *F3F7 3;6 ) 47 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 7@:3@5;@9 3@6 F:;E 67B7@6E A@ I:7F:7D F:7 H7DF;53> 6;EF3@57 47FI77@ F:7 4DA=7@ 3@6 F:7 EA>;6 >;@7 8AD 3@K 9;H7@ 6;E5AG@F 835FAD 7J5776E F:7 7JB75F76 F3J 4;>> 6G7 FA F:7 6;D75F 5AEFE A8 D7E5G;@9 43@=E  @ F:7 57@FD3> D79;A@ I7 E77 F:3F *F3F7 3;6 ;E ;@ 5A@FD3EF I7>83D7 675D73E;@9. T75F A8 *F3F7 3;6 A@ 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 4K 6;E5AG@F 835FAD. +:7 34AH7 M9GD7 34EFD35FE 8DA? F:7 5AEF  A8 D7E5G;@9 3 43@= @ I:3F 8A>>AIE I7 5A?BGF7 F:7 GBB7D >;?;FE A@  EG5: F:3F F:7 7JB75F76 I7>83D7 G@67D *F3F7 3;6 ;E >3D97D F:3@ G@67D @A *F3F7 3;6 ;@ F:7 53E7E I:7D7 BG4>;5 ;@F7DH7@F;A@ 6A7E @AF 3T75F F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 EF3F7 A8 F:7 75A@A?K 3>>  

(138)  F:;E >;?;F H3>G7 A8  8AD F:7 53E7 A8 @A .

(139) 5A>>GE;A@ ;@ 4AF: BA>;5K D79;?7E ; 7 8AD    

(140) 

(141)   

(142) 

(143)

(144)     

(145) 

(146).    .

(147)       

(148) 

(149)

(150)     . . @ BB7@6;J   I7 E:AI F:3F  

(151)    .7 @AI 5A?BGF7 F:7 GBB7D >;?;F   5ADD7EBA@6;@9 FA F:7 53E7 A8 5A>>GE;A@ ;@ 4AF: D79;?7E ; 7 8AD  .   .

(152)   

(153) 

(154)   .           

(155)   

(156) 

(157)        . . 93;@ I7 E:AI ;@ BB7@6;J   F:3F    . +:7 D7EG>FE A@ F:7 I7>83D7 7T75FE A8 *F3F7 ;@F7DH7@F;A@ 53@ 47 EG??3D;E76 4K 'DABAE;F;A@ . '$%$( ) $#       

(158)      $ ) /# -)" *! $.*0)/ !/*-. .0# /#/ /# - $. *(+ /$/$*) $) . ) *! // $ 0/ /$/ *''0.$*) 2$/# // $ .0#  +*'$4 - 0 . *).0( - 2 '!-  #/ $.

(159)   

(160) 

(161)

(162)  

(163).  . .   . #$. $. /-0. 1 ). $) /# . ) *! $- / - .0$)" *./. $$ ) ) )1$-*)( )/ 2# - 0*+*'$./$ )&. 6-(. *(+ / - "-' .. *! 2# /# - /# - $. // $     .0#  +*'$4 - 0 . *).0( - 2 '!- $! ) *)'4 $! /# $- / *./. *! - .0$)"  )& 6-( 3     $$$ ) ) )1$-*)( )/ 2# - 0*+*'$./$ )&. 6-(. ) .0./$) /$/ *''0.$*) - "-' .. *! 2# /# - /# - $. // $  .   . .0#  +*'$4 - 0 . *).0( - 2 '!- $! ) *)'4 $! /# $- / *./. *! - .0$)"  )& 6-(. 3   

(164)   '$$ +:7 BDAA8 A8 ; ;E ;@ BB7@6;J   AD F:7 BDAA8 A8 ;; 3@6 ;;; E77 34AH7 ;@7CG3>;F;7E. 'DABAE;F;A@  ;@FDA6G57E 3 E;?B>7 6;5:AFA?K 47FI77@ FIA E57@3D;AE F:3F EG??3D;E7E F:7 7T75F A8 *F3F7 ;6 A@ EA5;3> I7>83D7 @ A@7 E57@3D;A 53E7E ;; 3@6 ;;; 34AH7 *F3F7 3;6 6A7E @AF ;@NG7@57 F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 EF3F7 A8 F:7 75A@A?K 3@6 ;E I7>83D7 ;?BDAH;@9 3E >A@9 3E ;FE ;@FD;@E;5 5AEF ;E @AF FAA >3D97. @6776 ;@ EG5: 3 53E7 F:7. A@>K 7T75F A8 *F3F7 3;6 ;E FA 47@7M5;3>>K BD7E7DH7 F:7 7J;EF7@57 A8 F:7 ?3D=7F I:;5: ;E 36H3@F397AGE FA 4AF: MD?E 3@6 5A@EG?7DE @ F:7 AF:7D E57@3D;A 53E7 ; I:7D7 *F3F7 3;6 3T75FE F:7 5A?B7F;F;H7 EF3F7 A8 F:7 75A@A?K 4K FD;997D;@9 5A>>GE;A@ I7 M@6 F:3F ;FE AH7D3>> 7T75F ;E '24. @793F;H7 +:;E ?73@E F:3F ;@ EG5: 3 E57@3D;A F:7 .

(165) 36H7DE7 5A>>GE;A@ 5D73F;@9 7T75F A8 *F3F7 3;6 6A?;@3F7E ;FE 47@7M5;3> ?3D=7F BD7E7DH;@9 7T75F +:7 6A?;@3@57 A8 F:7 MDEF 8AD57 AH7D F:7 E75A@6 8AD57 6A7E @AF 3BB73D >;=7 3@ 3 BD;AD; @757EE;FK .7 3FFD;4GF7 F:;E 873FGD7 FA F:7 835F F:3F F:;E E57@3D;A 5ADD7EBA@6E FA D7>3F;H7>K >AI H3>G7E A8 F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD AD EG5: H3>G7E A8 F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FAD F:7 36H7DE7 BD;57 7T75F A8 5A>>GE;A@ F:GE 6A?;@3F7E F:7 >A@9 DG@ BAE;F;H7 47@7MFE D7>3F76 FA F:7 BD7E7DH3F;A@ A8 F:7 ?3D=7F. $#!*( $#. +:7 >;F7D3FGD7 A@ *F3F7 3;6 3@6 F:7 D7>3F76 BA>;5K 6743F7 :3H7 FKB;53>>K 8A5GE76 A@ F:7 36H7DE7 7S5;7@5K 7T75FE A8 EG5: BA>;5;7E ?;E3>>A53F;A@ A8 D7EAGD57E ?AD3> :3L3D6 3@6 A@ 5AG@F7DH3;>;@9 3D9G?7@FE 43E76 A@ 7CG;FK 5A:7E;A@ 3@6 EA5;3> BA>;5K. 7D7 I7 67H7>AB76 3 H7DK E;?B>7 ;@M@;F7 :AD;LA@ ?A67> F:3F E:76E >;9:F A@ 3 E7B3D3F7 D7EG>F F:3F FA AGD =@AI>7697 :36 @AF 477@ EFD7EE76 478AD7 3 9AH7D@?7@F BA>;5K 3;?76 3F EKEF7?3F;53>>K D7E5G;@9 MD?E ;@ F:7 BD7E7@57 A8 @793F;H7 ;6;AEK@5D3F;5 E:A5=E 835;>;F3F7E F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ +:;E ;E 4753GE7 7JB75F76 8GFGD7 5A AB7D3F;H7 BDAMFE ;@5D73E7 E;@57 MD?E 3D7 7@EGD76 FA 47 ;@ 4GE;@7EE ;@ F:7 EG4E7CG7@F B7D;A6E 3@6 4753GE7 F:7 9G3D3@F776 BD7E7@57 A8 5A?B7F;FADE ;@ F:7 @7JF B7D;A6E ?3=7E F:7 7JB75F76 BG@;E:?7@F B:3E7 :3DE:7D F:3@ G@67D 3@ 7@H;DA@?7@F I:7D7 5A?B7F;FADE ?3K 7J;F F:7 ?3D=7F 6G7 FA 3@ 7JA97@AGE E:A5= I:;5: IAG>6 >73H7 F:7 67H;3@F MD? G@BG@;E:76. J3?;@;@9 F:7 ;?B>;53F;A@E A8 F:;E D7EG>F 8AD F:7 I7>83D7 7T75FE A8 *F3F7 3;6 BA>;5K AGD ?3;@ D7EG>F ;E F:7 ;67@F;M53F;A@ A8 3 D3@97 A8 6;E5AG@F 835FADE 8AD I:;5: 3@ 3;6 BA>;5K ;E 3>I3KE I7>83D7 67FD;?7@F3> 4753GE7 A8 ;FE 5A>>GE;A@ 5D73F;@9 7T75F. +:7 3@3>KE;E ;@ F:;E B3B7D :3E 8A5GE76 A@ F:7 43E;5E A8 F:7 ?75:3@;E? FA :;9:>;9:F F:7 =7K ;@E;9:F AI7H7D F:;E B3B7D 53@ E7F F:7 EF397 8AD ;@F7D7EF;@9 7JF7@E;A@E &@7 BAEE;4>7 6;D75F;A@ ;E FA 67H;E7 ?AD7 5A?B>7J 3;6 BA>;5;7E EFA5:3EF;5 I;F: D7B3K?7@FE >;?;F76 FA F:7 >3EF 83;>;@9 MD? AD FA 5A@E;67D 3 ?AD7 5A?B>7J 5A?B7F;F;H7 E7FGB ;@FDA6G5;@9 3EK??7FD;7E 7@FDK 3 D;5:7D ?7@G A8 5A@FD35FE @AF:7D BAEE;4;>;FK IAG>6 47 FA 7?476 3 FDG7 43@=;@9 ?A67> I;F:;@ AGD 8D3?7IAD= 8AD ;@EF3@57 4K 7@6A97@;E;@9 BADF8A>;A 5:A;57 3@6 ?A67>>;@9 3@ ;@F7D43@= I:A>7E3>7 ?3D=7F. .

(166) '#( 0 1 >>7@ 3@6 3>7 

(167)

(168)  *(+ /$/$*) ) 6))$' ./$'$/4 !AGD@3> A8 $A@7K D76;F 3@6 3@=;@9 -A> . 01 7E>7K 3@6 *734D;9:F   #. 8 /. ) +*'$4 $(+'$/$*). *! // $. /* $)0./-4 ) *)*($ )'4.$.. 5A@A?;5 'A>;5K -A> . 01 G7>7@E 3D@;7D $7;=>7<A:@ 3@6 !A:@EA@ 

(169)

(170)  #. *)*($ )'4.$. *! .// $ .*( *+ ) ,0 ./$*).. GDAB73@ 5A@A?K 5A@A?;5 '3B7DE @A  *7BF7?47D 

(171)

(172) . 01 3D>7FF; 

(173)

(174)  *(+ /$/$*) ) - "0'/$*) $) )&$)" ;@ )**& $) $))$' )/ -( $/$*) 76E AAF 3@6 +:3=AD >E7H;7D %ADF: A>>3@6. 01 A>>;7 

(175)

(176)

(177)  // $ $) /# 0-*+ ) )$*) /# +-*#$$/$*) *! .0.$$ . $) ) $)/ "-/  (-& / @F7D@3 F;A@3> !AGD@3> A8 @6GEFD;3> &D93@;L3F;A@ -A> . 01 7I3FD;BA@F 3@6 *734D;9:F 

(178)

(179)  ./ !0' +0'$ .+ )$)" ) // $ *)/-*' !AGD@3> A8 F:7 GDAB73@ 5A@A?;5 EEA5;3F;A@ -A>  . 01 GDAB73@ A??;EE;A@ 

(180)

(181)  *((0)$/$*) *) /# ++'$/$*) *! // $ -0' . /* ( .0- . /& ) $) - '/$*) /* 6))$' $)./$/0/$*). $) /# *)/ 3/ *! /# 0-- )/ "'*' 6))$' -$.$. &S5;3> !AGD@3>  

(182)  

(183) 

(184)

(185)  BB   01 D7;J3E 3@6 )A5:7F 

(186)

(187)  $-* *)*($. *! )&$)" $ + 'D7EE E75A@6 76. 01 D;76D;EL;5= )A7>>7D 3@6 -7DAG67@ 

(188)

(189)  0-*+ ) // $ *)/-*' ) *)*($ !-( 2*-& ;@ )**& *!

(190) )/$/-0./ *)*($. 76 G55;DAEE; $ + 'D7EE. 0

(191) 1 7>>?3@ $GD6A5= 3@6 *F;9>;FL 

(192)

(193)

(194)  $ -'$5/$*) (*-' #5- $) )&$)" ) +-0 )/$' - "0'/$*) +$/' - ,0$- ( )/. )*0"#  ?7D;53@ 5A@A?;5 )7H;7I -A> 

(195)  . 0 1 H3>6; !G>>;7@ )7K *734D;9:F 3@6 +;DA>7 

(196)

(197)  # *)*($. *! $/ *''0.$*)  .AD=;@9 '3B7D @A.  ;@3> )7BADF 8AD  A?B7F;F;A@ GDAB73@ A??;EE;A@. 0 1 ">7;@   

(198) /# *-4 *! /# )&$)" 6-( !AGD@3> A8 $A@7K D76;F 3@6 3@=;@9 -A> . 0 1 $3DF;@ 3@6 -3>4A@7E; 

(199)

(200)  ,0$'$-$0( //

(201) $ $) )/ "-/$)" -& /.   !AGD@3> A8 5A@A?;5 @3>KE;E  'A>;5K -A>  . .

(202) 0 1 $A@F;    +*.$/ - $/ ) $)/ - ./ -/  / -($)/$*) 0) - '/ -)/$1 )& *% /$1 . ;@ /# (/ $' ( /#*. $) $)1 ./( )/ ) 6))  76 *L79A 3@6 *:7>> ?EF7D63? %ADF: A>>3@6. 0 1 %;FE5:7 3@6 7;6:G7E 

(203)

(204)  *FG6K A@ ?7F:A6E FA 3@3>KE7 F:7 ;?B35F A8 *F3F7 3;6 A@ 5A?B7F;F;A@ GDAB73@ 5A@A?K 5A@A?;5 '3B7DE @A  74DG3DK 

(205)

(206) . 0 1 &+ 

(207)

(208)  0'$ .0.$$ . 

(209) - +*-/ 4 /# 7 *! $- -$)" &+ 

(210)  %AH7?47D 

(211)

(212) . 0 1 '7DAFF; 3@6 *G3D7L 

(213)

(214)  ./ )& ./)$)" #/ *  "$) $! 4*0 !$'  GDAB73@ 5A@A?;5 )7H;7I -A>. . 0 1 )7BG>>A 

(215)

(216)  +$/' - ,0$- ( )/. (-& / +*2 - ) -$.&/&$)" $) )&$)" !AGD@3> A8 ;@3@5;3> @F7D?7 6;3F;A@ -A> . 0 1 *F;9>7D  

(217) /# *-4 *! *'$"*+*'4 !AGD@3> A8 'A>;F;53> 5A@A?K -A>  .

(218).

(219) %%# -.

(220) 

(221) . ' +) $# $ ) ' ) !  ($*#) )$'( $ ))  . .7 EF3DF 4K 67D;H;@9 F:7 7JB75F76 5A>>GE;H7 BDAMF #* A8 F:7  F 735: B7D;A6  3 43@= 97FE 5A>>GE;H7 BDAMFE .    I;F: BDA4   ?A@ABA>K BDAMFE    I;F: BDA4   3@6  I;F: BDA4   +:7 D7EB75F;H7 BDA434;>;F;7E 53@ 47 ID;FF7@ 3E 8A>>AIE     .

(222)   

(223)      

(224)                    

(225)    

(226)      .  

(227).         

(228)   .  %AF34>K F:7 BDA434;>;FK A8 F:7 5A?B7F;FAD 47;@9 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F ;@ B7D;A6 53@ 47 5A?BGF76 3E  +:7 835F F:3F F:7 5A?B7F;FAD ?;9:F :3H7 FA >73H7 F:7 ?3D=7F ;@ B7D;A6 6A7E @AF 3T75F F:7 BDAMFE A8 F:7 AF:7D 43@= ;@ B7D;A6. .

(229) +:;E K;7>6E  .

(230)           .  

(231).    

(232)             

(233).   

(234)        

(235).  . %7JF I7 FGD@ FA F:7 D;9:F :3@6 E;67 A8  ; 7 F:7 67H;3F;A@ BDAMF F:;E B7D;A6 A4F3;@76 I;F: BDA434;>;FK  E;@57 F:7 E:A5= A55GDE 38F7D F:7 ;@F7D7EF D3F7 675;E;A@ B>GE F:7 7JB75F76 BG@;E:?7@F EFD73? 8DA? @7JF B7D;A6 A@I3D6E. +:7 8AD?7D BDAMF ;E E;?B>K  E 8AD F:7 >3FF7D F:7D7 3D7 8AGD BAEE;4>7 7H7@FE 3F 735: F;?7   . AF: 43@=E 3D7 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F 3F F:7 479;@@;@9 A8 F:7 B7D;A6 3@6 F:7 67H;3F;@9 43@= :3E 3 9AA6 E:A5= ;@ F:3F B7D;A6  

(236)     AF: 43@=E 3D7 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F 3F F:7 479;@@;@9 A8 F:7 B7D;A6 3@6 F:7 67H;3F;@9 43@= :3E 3 436 E:A5= ;@ F:3F B7D;A6  

(237)       +:7 67H;3F;@9 43@= I;>> 47 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F 3F F;?7   3@6 73D@ ?A@ABA>K BDAMF 3>A@7        

(238)                    

(239)      

(240)      +:7 67H;3F;@9 43@= I;>> @AF 47 ;@ F:7 ?3D=7F 

(241) 

(242)         . AI7H7D ;F ;E A@>K   F:3F ;E 3EEA5;3F76 FA 3 @A@ L7DA B3KAT   3@6   3D7 3EEA5;3F76 FA  

(243)  3@6 

(244)  FA BD7H;AGE 7J;F +:GE 366;@9 AH7D   .

(245)  .  .        .  .

(246) . .           . A@EFDG5F;@9 F:7 AH7D3>>  4K 5A?B3D;@9 #* 393;@EF )* ; 7  EA>H;@9 8AD  3@6 @AF;5;@9 F:3F  83>>E F:DAG9: A@7 97FE F:3F F35;F 5A>>GE;A@ ;E EGEF3;@34>7 ;8    .                            7JB 75F76 BDAMF A8 67H;3F;A@. 7JB 75F76 BDAMF A8 5A>>GE;A@. .  . .

(247)

(248) . ))  . .;F: *F3F7 3;6 3 43@= F:3F :3E D757;H76 3 436 E:A5= ;E D7E5G76 3@6 3>>AI76 FA AB7D3F7 ;@ F:7 8A>>AI;@9 B7D;A6. +:7D7 ;E @A BDAMF @AD 35FG3> >AEE ;@ F:7 B7D;A6 A8 83;>GD7 *7FF;@9 GB F:7  3@6 EA>H;@9 8AD F:7 5D;F;53> 6;E5AG@F 835FAD I7 A4F3;@ F:7 FD36;F;A@3> EGB7D93?7 D7EG>F ;@ 3 EK??7FD;5 BD;57 E7FF;@9 6GABA>K  .   .  .                                    .            . 7JB 75F76 BDAMF A8 5A>>GE;A@. 7JB 75F76 BDAMF A8 67H;3F;A@.    .   . +:3F ;E 5A>>GE;A@ ;E EGEF3;@34>7 8AD   .

(249) 

(250) . ' +) $# $ ) ,!' &*) $#( $ ))  . #' $!!*( $#  .   . +:7D7 3D7 E;J BAEE;4>7 EF3F7E A8 3 5A@EG?7D ;@ F7D?E A8 I7>83D7 3F F;?7    F:7D7 ;E 3 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>K 3@6 F:7 67BAE;FE 3D7 D7FGD@76 I;F: ;@F7D7EF 4K 4AF: 43@=E   F:7D7 ;E 3 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>K 3@6 3>> 67BAE;FE 3D7 >AEF 4753GE7 A8 F:7 436 E:A5=E FA 4AF: 6GABA>;EFE .  F:7D7 ;E 3 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>K 3@6 A@>K A@7 43@= D757;H7E 3 436 E:A5=.  - F:7D7 ;E 3 ?A@ABA>K 3@6 F:7 67BAE;FE 3D7 D7FGD@76 I;F: ;@F7D7EF - F:7D7 ;E 3 ?A@ABA>K 3@6 F:7 67BAE;FE 3D7 >AEF 4753GE7 A8 3 436 E:A5= -  F:7D7 ;E @A ?3D=7F 3F 3>> 43@=E :3H7 7J;F76 3@6 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 ;E .  

(251)   

(252)    .    

(253)    

(254)    .   .   

(255)                       

(256)     . .

(257)  .   

(258)                         

(259)         

(260)                 . +:7 @7JF EF7B ;E FA 3EEA5;3F7 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 H3>G7E FA 735: EF3F7 .  . 

(261).  . 

(262) .  .   .  .  . .

(263) . .

(264)        

(265).

(266)    

(267).  

(268) . . %7JF I7 E;?B>K EG? GB F:7E7 I7>83D7 >7H7>E 36<GEF76 4K F:7 BDA434;>;F;7E AH7D F;?7 355AG@F;@9 8AD F:7 6;E5AG@F 835FADE %AF;57 F:3F F:7 EG? A8 F:7 >AEE7E ;E F:7 E3?7 3E F:7 FAF3> E;L7 A8 F:7 % * 3@6 F:GE F:7 7JB75F76 BD7E7@F 6;E5AG@F76 H3>G7 A8 FAF3> F3J7E ;@ F:7 75A@A?K I:;5: F:GE 7@F7D 3E @793F;H7 F7D?E   

(269) 

(270)  .

(271).  .                     .  .   .

(272).                   

(273).                   .    . #' #$ $!!*( $#  .   . +:7D7 3D7 E;J BAEE;4>7 EF3F7E A8 3 5A@EG?7D ;@ F7D?E A8 I7>83D7 3F F;?7    F:7D7 ;E 3 5A?B7F;F;H7 6GABA>K 3@6 F:7 67BAE;FE 3D7 D7FGD@76 I;F: ;@F7D7EF 4K 4AF: 43@=E   F:7D7 ;E 3 5A?B7F;F;H7 6GABA>K 3@6 3>> 67BAE;FE 3D7 >AEF 4753GE7 A8 F:7 436 E:A5=E FA 4AF: 6GABA>;EFE .  F:7D7 ;E 3 5A?B7F;F;H7 6GABA>K 3@6 A@>K A@7 43@= D757;H7E 3. 436 E:A5=  - F:7D7 ;E 3 ?A@ABA>K 3@6 F:7 67BAE;FE 3D7 D7FGD@76 I;F: ;@F7D7EF - F:7D7 ;E 3 ?A@ABA>K 3@6 F:7 67BAE;FE 3D7 >AEF 4753GE7 A8 3 436 E:A5= -  F:7D7 ;E @A ?3D=7F 3F 3>> 43@=E :3H7 7J;F76 3@6 5A@EG?7D I7>83D7 ;E  +:7E7 7H7@FE A55GD D7EB75F;H7>K I;F: F:7 E3?7 BDA434;>;F;7E   F:DAG9:   F:3F I7 6;E5GEE76 34AH7 ;F ;E <GEF F:3F 5A>>GE;H7 6GABA>K :3E FA 47 D7B>3576 I;F: 5A?B7F;F;H7 6GABA>K AI7H7D F:7 I7>83D7 >7H7>E .

(274) 3EEA5;3F76 FA 735: BDA434;>;FK 3D7 E>;9:F>K 6;T7D7@F  .  . 

(275).  . 

(276) 

(277) .  .   .  .  .     

(278) 

(279)  .

(280)     

(281).  

(282) . . .7 EG? 393;@ F:7E7 BDA434;>;FK 36<GEF76 I7>83D7 >7H7>E AH7D F;?7 FA A4F3;@

(283) 

(284)

(285)  .

(286).  . . . .   . . . . . .     

(287)   . .     .  .   

(288) .

(289).                   

(290)

(291) .                   . ))  . .7 BDA5776 ;@ F:7 E3?7 83E:;A@ 3E 478AD7 AI7H7D :7D7 43@=E @7H7D 7J;F .:7@ 5A@EG?7DEO 67BAE;FE 3D7 >AEF 6G7 FA F:7 436 E:A5=E F:7 AH7D@?7@F D78G@6E F:7? F:7 AD;9;@3> 53B;F3> 3E I7>> 3E B3K;@9 F:7 6;D75F D7E5G;@9 5AEFE . #' $!!*( $#     +:7D7 3D7 F:D77 E57@3D;AE F:3F 53@ 5:3D35F7D;E7 F:7 75A@A?K 7H7DK B7D;A6   4AF: 43@=E :3H7 3 9AA6 E:A5= 3@6 D7FGD@ 67BAE;FE I;F: ;@F7D7EF I:;5: A55GDE I;F: BDA434;>;FK  

(292)     A@>K A@7 43@= D757;H7E 3 436 E:A5= BDA434;>;FK  

(293)    .  4AF: 43@=E D757;H7 3 436 E:A5=   

(294)     +:;E ;E FDG7 7H7DK. B7D;A6 3@6 735: BDA434;>;FK ;E 3EEA5;3F76 FA F:7 8A>>AI;@9 I7>83D7 >7H7>E  .  .  . . 

(295). .

(296) .

(297)          

(298) .    

(299)   . .7 53@ F:7D78AD7 EG? F:;E EFD73? A8 7JB75F76 B3KATE 3@6 F:7@ EG4FD35F F:7 BD7E7@F 6;E5AG@F76 H3>G7 A8 F:7 FAF3> 

(300).

(301) F3J 4;>> % * 3@6 6;D75F 3;6

(302)  .

(303).  . . . .  .    .  .

(304).     .

(305).       .            . . #' #$ $!!*( $#     .7 BDA5776 7J35F>K 3E ;@ F:7 53E7 A8 5A>>GE;A@ +:7 BDA434;>;F;7E 3D7 F:7 E3?7 3E F:AE7 67D;H76 34AH7 4GF F:7 3EEA5;3F76 I7>83D7 >7H7>E 3D7 E>;9:F>K 6;T7D7@F  .  . 

(306).  .     

(307)   

(308)   .  . 

(309)   

(310)   . *G??;@9 GB AH7D F;?7

(311) 

(312)  .

(313).  .         .  .

(314).

(315) .   

(316)   .

(317).     

(318)   .            . # )  ') $() $ '(* #. @ F:;E E75F;A@ I7 E:AI F:7 BAE;F;H;FK A8 93??3E AD F:7 F:D7E:A>6  

(319)    

(320) 

(321).                                      . AD                                  . . F 53@ 47 E:AI@ F:3F F:7 MDEF F7D? ;E >3D97D ;@ 34EA>GF7 F7D?E E 3 D7EG>F F:7 F:D7E:A>6 ;E BAE;F;H7 +A E77 F:;E D7?7?47D 8DA? 5A@6;F;A@ F:3F .   A@E7CG7@F>K I7 :3H7 F:3F     GDF:7D @AF;57 F:3F       .                 .

(322) I:;5: 9;H7E GE F:7 D7EG>F F:3F  

(323)  ;E BAE;F;H7 AD F:7 F:D7E:A>6     

(324).                                    .   .    . AD   .               .                  . AD F:7 E3?7 3D9G?7@F 3E 478AD7 I7 :3H7      $AD7AH7D. .                             .    . I:;5: ;E FDG7 E;@57    :7@57   ;E BAE;F;H7.

(325) . '$$ $   # '$%$( ) $# . '$$ K 5A@FD36;5F;A@

(326)  .

(327).

(328) 

(329)

(330)  .

(331).             .                    .                   .       . 

(332) . %AF7 F:3F )* ;@ 7CG3F;A@ 

(333)  ;E 5A@F;@GAGE 3@6 675D73E;@9 ;@ 67>F3 ;8         I:;5: ;E 7CG;H3>7@F FA  .   .             

(334)

(335)                          

(336)   

(337)          .  .:;5:. ;E F:7 D7>3F;A@ ;@FDA6G576 ;@ F:7 3EEG?BF;A@ 34AH7. .

(338) /;7>6;@9.                  

(339)                     . . . . $AD7AH7D          A@E7CG7@F>K F:7 )* A8 7CG3F;A@ 

(340)  ;E 4;997EF 8AD F:7 E?3>>7EF H3>G7 A8 67>F3 ;@ F:7 9;H7@ D3@97 I:;5: ;E 

(341) . 8F7D B>G99;@9 ;@ I7 3DD;H7 3F                                  .    .

(342) +:GE I7 :3H7.                       .    . . #736;@9 FA 3 5A@FD36;5F;A@ E;@57

(343) 

(344)

(345)   

(346)    .  . . .      .        .       .    .    .    3@6 I7 3EEG?76 F:3F .  7@57 I7 :3H7 F:3F

(347)    . .               .   >736E FA   .:;5: ;E 3>I3KE FDG7 =@AI;@9 F:3F 

(348)  . .

(349)

Riferimenti

Documenti correlati

The relatively high presence of families with more than 10 members in the wealthy district 5 (see fig. I.4.4.1) shows that large household size is not correlated to low income

The final step in computing the amplitudes for producing physical baryons is to project the fundamental amplitudes A~ onto the physical hadron SU(6) wave

The second method is based on the idea that in the contact points the difference be- tween the wheel surface and the rail surface evaluated along a fixed direction assumes

John Coltrane is generally regarded as a master of jazz saxophone and jazz music in general and, along with very few other composers and performers (such as Miles Davis), as the

Considerata, inoltre, la collocazione di tali sedi presso i luoghi della ricerca scientifica che ha informato la progettazione dei servizi, ciascuno di questi centri ha

In the present paper we deal with an optimal control problem re- lated to a model in population dynamics; more precisely, the goal is to modify the behavior of a given density

The present work is devoted to the formulation, calibration and validation of a double-continuum model for solute transport in porous media, which aims to embed characteristics of

When assessed for adult autism spectrum symptoms, despite not fulfilling a DSM-5 diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), he reported a score of 93/240 at the Ritvo Autism