S
Re s e a rc h In s tit u te f o r P e a c e a n d S e c u rit y ( R IP S ) is a n in d e p e n d e n t r e se a rc h in stit u tio n e sta b lis h e d in T o ky o in O cto b e r 1 9 7 8 . T h e R IP S c o n d u cts re se a rc h o n is su e s o f nat ional and int er nat ional peac e and sec ur ity , publ is hes res ear ch repor ts , and pr opos es pol ic y r ec o mme n d a tio n s. Th e in sti tu te p u b lis h e s a n a n n u a l r e p o rt, Aj ia n o a n ze n h o sh o (A sia n S e cu ri ty ), w h ic h su rv e ys th e ch a n g in g se cu rit y e n vir o n m e n t o f th e A si a -Pa cif ic re g io n . W e ll r e g a rd e d b y b o th th e a ca d e m ic a n d th e se cu rity co m m u n iti e s, th e in sti tu te a ls o o rg ani zes sem inar s for sp e ci a list s a n d th e p u b lic o n n a tio n a l, r e g io n a l, a n d in te rn a tio n a l se cu rit y a n d sp o n so rs jo in t re se a rc h p ro je cts w ith in sti tu te s i n o th e r co u n tri e s. In a d d iti o n to its re se a rc h a cti viti e s, th e in sti tu te , to g e th e r w ith th e J a p a n F o u n d at ion' s Ce n te r fo r G lo b a l P a rtn e rs h ip , o ffe rs fe llo ws h ip s to yo u n g sc h o la rs wi sh in g to p u rs u e se cu rit y st u d ie s. M a n y o f th e se r e ci p ie n ts h a ve si n ce b e co m e v a lu a b le co n trib u to rs to se cu rit y st u d ie s in Ja p a n . The RI P S P o lic y P e rs p e c tiv e s is in te n d e d to p ro vid e tim e ly a lte rn a tiv e s to a n d anal ys es of ex is ting peac e and sec ur ity pol ic ies , t her eby c ont ribut ing to fur ther debat e. T he vi e w s o f t h e a u th o rs a re th e ir o w n a n d d o n o t r e p re se n t t h e o ffic ia l p o sit io n o f t h e R IP S . Re se a rc h In sti tu te fo r P e a ce a n d S e cu rity Me is a n T a me ik e Bu ild in g 8 F 1 -1 -12 A kas ak a, M inat o -ku , T o ky o 1 0 7 -0052, J apan Te l: 8 1 -3 -3560 -3288 F ax :81 -3 -3560 -3289 E -ma il: rip s-in fo @ rip s.o r.jp URL : h ttp :// www. rip s.o r.jp © Re se a rc h In sti tu te fo r P e a ce a n d S e cu rity 2 0 1 7 Al l ri g h ts re se rv e d . No p a rt o f t h is b o o kle t m a y b e re p rin te d o r r e p ro d u ce d wi th o u t p e rm is sio n in wr itin g fr o m th e p u b lis h e r.
RI
PS
Po
lic
y Pe
rsp
ect
ive
s N
o. 2
5
Re
stl
ess
Ri
va
ls:
Tr
um
p,
C
hi
na
and
the
im
pl
icat
ions
for
Japan
and
Eas
t A
sia
Ger
m
an
In
stitu
te f
or I
nter
natio
nal an
d S
ec
ur
ity
A
ffair
s
(S
tif
tu
ng
Wis
sen
sch
af
t u
nd
P
olitik
: S
WP
)
K
on
rad
A
den
au
er
F
ou
nd
atio
n
(K
on
rad
-A
den
au
er
S
tif
tu
ng
: K
A
S)
an
d
R
es
ear
ch
In
stitu
te f
or P
eac
e an
d S
ec
ur
ity
(R
IP
S)
Ma y 2 01 7RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5
RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5
Ta
ble
o
f C
on
ten
ts
FO R EW O R D ... ... ... ... ... 1 1. T ru m p’s C hin a Po lic y: I m pli cat io ns o f an “A m er ica Fir st” Po lic y f or E as t A sia ... 1 Bo nni e G las er 2. H ow d o w e A ss es s C hin a’ s F or ei gn an d S ec ur ity P oli cy ? – A Ja pa ne se Vi ew ... 8 Hi de sh i T ok uc hi 3. H ow D o W e A ss es s C hin a’ s F or ei gn an d S ec ur ity P oli cy ? ... ... 13 Gi ov an i B . An do rn in o 4. C hin a’ s M ar iti m e Sec ur ity P oli cy : T ren ds in E ar ly 2017 ... ... 18 Ma th ieu D uc hâ tel 5. E as t A sia: T er rit or ial Is su es A nd R eg io nal S ec ur ity D ev el op m en ts: T he V iew F ro m Ja pa n’s A lli an ce P art ne r, W ith A F oc us O n T he S en ka ku Is la nd s D isp ute ... 22 Ro be rt D . E ld rid ge , P h.D . 6. T he K or ean P en in su la: F oc us o f T en sio ns ... ... ... 28 Ma sa sh i N ish ih ara ... ... ... ... ... 33RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5
RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5 - 13 -
3.
Ho
w
D
o
W
e
A
sse
ss
C
hin
a’s
For
eig
n
and
Sec
ur
ity
Pol
icy?
Gi ov an i B . A nd or nin o Ch in a’s fo re ig n a nd se cu rit y p oli cy is p rim ari ly a fu nc tio n o f it s d om es tic p oli tic s, w ho se po lar s tar is the pr es erv ati on of the c ur re nt po liti ca l-in stit utio na l se tu p of th e C hin es e Pa rty -St at e. Th e C hin es e lead ers hip e xp lic itly ar tic ulat es th is pos tu re w he n re fer ring to Ch in a’s “ co re in ter es ts” , a s m os t r ec en tly d on e b y S ta te Co un cill or Y an g J iec hi du rin g h is me eti ng w ith P re sid en t D on ald T ru mp o n F eb ru ary 27 , 2 01 7. Su ch in ter es ts, hie ra rch ica lly or de re d, all ow for a pr og re ssi ve ly le ss com pr om isin g n eg ot iat in g s tan ce on p ar t o f B ei jin g th e fu rth er on e m ov es to th e to p o f th e th re e-it em lis t: 3 ) th e c on tin ue d s ta ble d ev elo pm en t of C hin a’s e con om y an d soc iet y; 2) na tion al sove re ig nty a nd te rri tor ial in teg rit y; an d 1) pr es erv ing C hi na ’s b as ic s tat e s ys tem and na tio na l s ec ur ity. Wh ile th e C hin es e C om m un ist P art y as su m es th at th e sta bil ity o f i ts po liti ca l r eg im e na tur all y equa tes w ith C hi na ’s s upr em e na tio na l int ere st, suc h pr em ise do es put C hi na o n a dif fer en t lev el v is-à-vi s m os t gl oba l p laye rs, de ter m ini ng a de gr ee o f he ter og ene ity in the in ter na tio na l s ys tem th at ap pe ars to b e d ee pe nin g in co nju nc tio n w ith C hin a’s re em erg en ce an d th e fray in g of th e es tab lis hed li ber al w or ld o rd er . C al ls fo r ad ju stm en ts to g lo bal go ve rna nc e ent ail ing ne w ap pr oa che s to so ve re ignt y - em br ac in g ob lig at io ns an d re sp on si bil itie s, as w ell as pre ro ga tiv es an d ri gh ts - fa ce C hin a’s in tr in sic all y i dio sy nc ra tic po stur e i n the re alm o f hi gh po liti cs. It thus se em s a ppr opr iat e t o a sse ss C hi na ’s fo re ig n an d sec ur ity p oli cy lo ok in g at tw o i nt erna l dyna m ics sha pi ng Be ijing’ s be ha vi our o n the gl oba l s ta ge : the ro le o f the le ad er and the evo lvi ng na tio na l id ent ity und erp inni ng C hi na ’s wo rld vie w.
Xi J
in
pin
g as
a “p
rim
us
in
ter
in
fer
io
res
"
The sa lie nc e o f a na tio na l le ade r’s input in fo re ig n po lic y de fini tio n and im ple m ent ati on is g en era lly h ard to a sse ss, e xc ep t in re tro sp ec t, an d be co m es e sp ec ia lly im pe rv io us to an al ys is w hen d ec isio n-ma kin g pr oc es se s are a s op aq ue a s th ey a re in C hin a. A lso , a le ad er’s im pa ct is m os t o bv io us d ur in g m ajo r c ris es , wh ich h av e no t r ea lly ta ke n pla ce dur ing X i Ji npi ng ’s f irs t te rm in off ice (2 01 2-2017) . Xi Ji np in g’s le ad ers hip , ho w ev er, d oe s se em to le nd it se lf to s om e co ns eq ue nti al ob se rva tion s. For on e th in g, it m ay b e arg ue d th at, d es pit e th e ab se nc e of im m ed iat e fo re ig n p oli cy em erg en cie s, th e c ur re nt in te rn ati on al e nv iro nm en t in an d o f its elf is l oo kin g in cre as in gly w or ris om e f ro m B eij in g’s st an dp oin t. M ark ed b y a d is tu rb in g le ve l o f p ow erRI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5 - 14 - di ffus io n (inc ludi ng po tent ial ly di srupt iv e i ndi vidua l e m po w erm ent ) a nd un pr ec ede nt ed unc ert aint y o ve r t he shi fting po stur e o f the U S a nd Eur ope - th e k ey a nc ho rs of th e o rd er wh ich h as a llo we d C hin a to d ev elo p ov er th e pa st fo ur d ec ad es - gl oba l po liti cs is be co m ing m or e a nd m or e c om ple x p re cis ely at a t im e w he n C hi na ’s lea de rshi p ne eds to so ft-la nd it s o ve r-in ve ste d e co no m y in to a “ ne w n or m al” eq uilib riu m . Wh ile B eiji ng ’s as se ssm en t of th e sta te of th e w or ld h as n ot ye t ch an ge d in it s fu nd am en ta l co m po ne nts - “i nter nat io nal m ult ip olar isat io n, th e glo bal isat io n of th e ec on om y an d the de m oc ra tis ati on of int erna tio na l r ela tio ns ” r em ain the de fini ng tr ends - cl ea rly th e m ed iu m -te rm te nd en cie s be in g ob se rv ed re qu ire a b re ak w ith th e pr ud en t co nd uct o f t he re ce nt pa st . In th is co nte xt, o n F eb ru ary 1 7 X i Ji np in g h as use d h is ro le as ch ai rm an o f th e St at e Sec ur ity C om m iss io n t o i nd icat e fo r t he fir st tim e th at C hin a sh ou ld “g uid e” th e sh ap in g a “n ew w or ld o rd er ” an d “s af eg uar d i nter nat io nal sec ur ity ”. Se con dly , th e e vol uti on of X i’s ow n p ol itic al -in stit utio na l p hy sio gn om y o ffe rs in sig hts as to th e tr an sfo rm ati on o f to p po lic y-ma kin g in to da y’s C hin a, a d yn ami c t ha t is lik ely to be co m e m or e e vi de nt a fte r t he X IX C ongr ess o f t he C C P in au tu m n, w he n the o ngo ing pe rso nne l r es huf fle w ill re ac h its cl im ax w ith the re ne w ed m em be rshi p of the Po litb ur o an d i ts St an din g C om m ittee, lik el y af fo rd in g X i ev en g rat er p oli tic al leew ay . T he ou tco m e of th is c rit ica l tr an sit ion w ill se t th e s ta ge for th e n ext h alf -de ca de o f g ov ernm ent ac tio n in Ch in a, w hic h m an y d ee m to b e t he tim efr am e w ith in w hic h Ch in a h as to ei th er ro bu st ly re fo rm it s gro w th m od el, or fa ce a m ore ra dic al an d po ten tia lly d iso rd erl y ad ju st m en t do w n the ro ad. G re ate r c ohe siv ene ss in the “c oll ec tiv e w isdo m ” o f the inc om ing le ade rshi p an d i ts w ill (an d c ap ac ity ) to see su bs tan tial im plem en tat ion of th e b ol d d ec ision s ou tlin ed in th e 3 rd Pl ena ry Se ssi on in N ov em be r 2 01 3 w ill funda m ent all y i nf lue nc e C hi na ’s do m es tic st ab ilit y a nd h en ce its pro pe nsi ty to w alk th e w alk o f a m ore “ in cl usi ve g lo ba lisa tio n” (a s op pos ed to - sa y sl id in g t ow ard p op uli st re va nch ism ). Cl ea rly , X i’s h yp erb oli c e nh an ce m en t o f h is ow n p os itio n o nc e a pp oin ted at th e a pe x o f po liti ca l po w er in C hi na co nf irm s t he re m ark ab le ins titut io na l fl ex ib ilit y o f the Pa rty -St at e, wh ich h as b ee n s tre tch ed to th e p oin t wh ere th e r ole o f G ene ra l S ec re tar y of the Pa rty and Pr es ide nt o f the Pe opl e’s R epub lic - fo rm erl y a p rim us in te r p are s in th e P oli tb ur o S ta nd in g Co m m itte e ha s m or phe d int o a co ndi tio n of pr im us int er inf eri or es . W ith the as sum pt io n of th e C ha irm an sh ip of th e C en tra l M ilit ary C om m issi on s at th e v ery o nse t o f h is first te rm in o ffic e, X i up en de d th e p re vio us p ra ctic e, se ttin g th e s ta ge fo r h is u np re ce de nte d an d ve ry pu bl ic p roc lam ati on as “C om m and er-in -ch ief o f th e C M C Jo in t O pe ra tio ns C en ter ” i n Ap ril 20 16 . W hil e X i’s d ete rm in atio n t o c on ce ntr ate p ow er in h is h an ds h as cle arly m et a de gr ee o f re sis tanc e - as s ug ges ted b y th e lac k of pr og res s in th e im plem en tat io n of ec on om ic ref or m s, bu t al so b y th e en du rin g an d hig hly d isc ret io nar y an ti-co rru pti on ca m pa ig n, ub iq uit ou s ca lls fo r un qu es tio nin g lo ya lty to th e Pa rty , an d in cre as in gly
RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5 - 15 - pa ra no id m ea sur es o f s oc ial co nt ro l - hi s a ut ho rit y w as fur the r e nha nc ed by the de cis io n of th e C C P C en tr al C om m itte e to ele va te h im to “c or e” o f th e fi fth g en era tio n o f le ad ers , a ti tle th at ha d e lu de d hi s pr ede ce sso r H u Jint ao . C oupl ed w ith hi s he adi ng se ve ra l k ey Le adi ng Sm al l G rou ps of th e C C P C en tral C om m itte e, su ch d ev elop m en t has le d in flu en tial sch ola rs to re fer to h im as th e “ Im pe ri al P re si de nt” . Xi ’s a uth or ity is an yth in g b ut titu lar , e sp ec ial ly in th e fo rei gn an d s ec ur ity p oli cy real m s. No t o nly h as h e de lib era tel y ch os en to c as t h im se lf as a tr an sfo rm ati ve le ad er (wi th a pe rv as iv e m edi a pr es enc e e cho ing w ha t ha s b ee n de scr ib ed as a supr em ely se lfc onf ide nd pe rso na lity ): he ha s ac tiv ely s oug ht ow ne rsh ip o f all m ajo r fo re ig n po lic y do ssi ers , in clu din g s om e p re vio us ly h an dle d b y t he P R C P re m ie r (n ota bly E ur op e a nd th e W es t A sia , No rth ern A fric a re gio n). F ro m a sy m bo lic -no rm ati ve pe rspe cti ve , X i ha s qui ckl y br oke n wi th h is pr ed ec es so r’s d efi nin g tifa (o ffi cia l d isc ou rse ) by a dv an cin g his o w n ke yw or ds , ch ief ly th e “ C hin a d re am ” o f th e “ re ju ve na tio n o f th e C hin ese n ati on ”. I t is no tew or th y t ha t th e fi rst in sta nc e o f P arty -St at e t ifa gai nin g e nou gh sy m bol ic-no rm ati ve tr ac tio n as to sha pe th e glo ba l d is co ur se to ok p la ce u nd er X i’s te nu re , a nd p re cis ely in th e fo re ig n po lic y do m ain: the N ew S ilk R oa d pr oje ct - th en re na m ed “O ne B elt O ne R oa d” an d fi na lly “B elt an d R oad In itiat iv e” (B R I) is v ery m uc h X i Jin pin g’s sig na tu re fo re ig n p olic y p ro po sit io n, and w hi le no t qui te a gr and str ate gy in its elf , it sur ely is a t es t c as e o f C hi na ’s suc ce ss in br ea ki ng W est ern he ge m ony in the p ro du cti on of gl oba lly inf lu ent ial sym bo lic ca pit al.
C
hin
a’
s ev
olv
in
g n
atio
nal id
en
tity
an
d wo
rld
view
Be side s ho ldi ng the m ono po ly o ve r p olit ic al po w er, th e C C P j ea lo us ly p re se rv es it s r ole as th e so le au th or ity p er m itted to m ou ld C hin a’ s o ffic ial id en tity an d w or ld view . O ver th e pa st fiv e ye ars the Pa rty ’s cul tur al he ge m ony ha s be en m ark edl y re inf or ce d: in the bu re au cra tic sp he re , ve ter an lea de r L iu Y uns ha n ha s c om m and ed ove r a tight ly int egr ate d sy st em co m bin in g ort ho do xy -de fini ng ins titut io ns (C ent ra l Pa rty S cho ols ), pr opa ga nda ch an ne ls (tr ad itio na l m ed ia at ho m e an d ab ro ad , w ith a sp eci al eff or t m ad e to ta rg et ove rse as C hin es e), an d t oo ls t o r ep res s v iew s c on tes tin g t he St at e-sa nct io ne d n arra tiv e. Op era tio na lly , n ot ev en th e m os t p re sti gio us u niv ers itie s a nd re se arc h i ns titu tio ns h av e be en sp are d f ro m the fo rce d na rro w ing of the sp ec tru m o f id ea s t ha t m ay legi tim ate ly be de ba ted in p ub lic . S om e a na ly se s r ela te th is tig hte nin g id eo lo gic al gr ip to th e a m bit io us re ba lan cin g C hin a ne ed s to im ple m en t in th e co m in g ye ars. Th is lin e of th ou gh t, po pul ari se d in the 19 80 s a s ne o-au th or itar ian ism , p os its th at th e str uc tu ral ref or m s n eed ed to fu lly m od ern ise C hin a r eq uir e a ro bu st ce ntr al au th or ity to re du ce th e tr an sa cti on co sts of m ajor ad ju stm en t. Ho we ve r, wh ile ef fic ien t in su pp re ssi ng p oli tic al pa rtic ip ati on , th is ap pr oa ch h as so fa r be en les s tha n su cc ess fu l in cu rbi ng the m os t im m ed iat e thr ea t to e co no m ic re fo rm s,RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5 - 16 - na m ely ve ste d int ere sts c onc ent ra ted in the Pa rty -St at e ap par at us . Bar rin g sig nif ica nt di sco nt inui ty af ter the X IX C ong re ss, it w oul d appe ar tha t the o ffic ial ide nt ity b eing cr aft ed fo r C hin a a s it he ad s fo r th e tw o c en te nn ial s (2 02 1 a nd 20 49 ) is o ne co m bin in g L en in ism in th e po liti ca l sp he re , a te ch no lo gic al clo se d so cie ty m oll ifi ed b y sa nit ize d co nfu ci an at trib utes , an d sem i-co nte nd ib le eco no m ic an d fin an ci al pla yin g f iel ds he av ily p op ula ted by Pa rty -co ntr oll ed n ati on al co rp or ate ch am pio ns. T his tra ject or y, ad vo ca ted b y m em be rs of X i J in pin g’s cl os es t e ntou ra ge su ch a s W an g H un in g, ha s se ve ra l im pli ca tio ns fo r th e fo re ig n a nd se cu rity p oli cy d om ain s. Fi rst ly, the inc re as ingl y fo ca l r ole o f the P art y, as re m arke d by X i d ur ing the 20 14 C ent ra l Co nfe re nc e o n W or k R ela tin g t o F or eig n A ffa irs , li es a t t he h ea rt of Ch in a’s q ue st fo r i ts ow n qu int es se nt ial ly C hi ne se - ve rsi on of m od erni ty. Fa r f rom be ing a p ur ely dom es tic go al, thi s pr oje ct re fle cts a n ove ra rchi ng fo re ign po lic y obj ec tive : C hi na ’s ins ist enc e on in clu siv en es s a nd es pe cia lly “ ha rm on y” (h e e r b uto ng ) in w or ld a ffa ir s e ffe ctiv ely im pli es th e e nd o f th e W este rn h eg em on ic pr ero ga tiv e to d efi ne th e c on to ur s o f th e “ in te rn ati on al co m m un ity ”, an d th e re co gn itio n th at alt ern ati ve so ci al, eco no m ic an d po liti ca l m od els ma y c oe xis ts w ith eq ua l le git ima cy . Se con dly , th e pr om ot ion of c on fo rm ism a nd a cti ve d isc ou ra ge m en t of sy st em ati c en gag em en t w ith fo rei gn id eas - es pec ial ly am on g C hin a’ s yo uth , al read y per vas iv el y so ci ali se d t o t he te ne ts of pa tri oti c ed uca tio n ma y i n t he lo ng ru n r es tric t th e s pe ctr um of po lic y o pt io ns fe d to the le ade rsh ip . W hil e X i Ji np in g h as re ce ntl y e xp re sse d h is visi on fo r “ag glo m er at in g tal en t in to res ear ch in sti tu tio ns ” an d “b reak in g in sti tu tio nal b ou nd ar ies ” to a llo w fo r a n e xc ha ng e o f ta len t be tw ee n th e p riv ate se cto r, th e g ov ern m en t, a nd th in k ta nk s, th e b en efi t of “re vo lv in g d oo rs” is ea sily o ffs et w he n s ch ola rs are in tim id ate d an d re se arc h g ra nts fo st er ge ne ra lise d sy co ph an cy . Thi rdl y, as g re ate r em pha sis is pl ac ed on the “ C hi ne se c ha ra cte ris tic s” o f C hi na ’s so ci ali st m ark et eco no m y - pa rtic ul arl y the r ole of n ati on al cor por ate c ha m pion s in sp ea rh ea din g glo ba l in ve st m en t, m ark et pe ne tra tio n, st ra teg ic asse ts acq uisi tio n, an d pr oduc tiv ity a cc ele ra tio n - a nu m ber o f pr ac tic al im pli cat io ns ar e lik el y to c hal len ge es tab lis hed p rac tic es an d ex ac er bat e dep ar tm en tal fra gm en ta tio n a cro ss th e P art y-St at e: a) th e g ro w in g s to ck o f C hin a’s o utb ou nd fo re ig n d ire ct in ve stm en t is o utp ac in g th e ca pa ci ty o f th e st ate an d P LA to p ro vid e n ece ssa ry p ro tect io n a nd su pe rv isi on to C hin ese ci tiz en s, p erso nn el a nd asse ts ov erse as; b) pub lic o pin io n in k ey co un trie s a pp ea rs t o r efle ct in cre as in g d iffid en ce to w ard s C hin a, es pec ial ly in E ur op e, w her e Bei jin g’s lac k o f r ec ip ro cit y i n s ev er al tr ad e an d i nv es tm en t do m ains is fr us tra ting g ov ernm ent s to o;
RI PS P olic y P ers pec tiv es N o. 2 5 - 17 - c) th e in ve stm en ts th at w ou ld g iv e s ub sta nc e to th e B elt an d R oa d In iti ati ve re qu ire lo ng -te rm sta bil ity an d c oo pe ra tio n w ith m yr iad in te rlo cu to rs i n v ery co m ple x r eg io ns o f As ia t o g en era te r etu rn s: u nlo ck in g t he p ote nti al o f E ur as ian co nn ec tiv ity is as m uc h a po liti ca l-di pl om ati c c onundr um as it is a fin an cial an d i nfr as tru ctu ral ch al len ge; d) en co ur ag in g ec on om ic d ep en den cy o n C hin a in v olat ile co un tries w her e Bei jin g i s re lu cta nt to g et t oo in vo lv ed p oli tic all y ( i.e . th e M id dle E ast an d N ort h A fri ca ) m ay n ot sh iel d i t fro m th e p ub lic ho st ilit y o f n atio na lis t o r r ad ic al m ov em en ts, w ith p ote ntia l sp illo ve r e ffe ct s in si de C hin a ( th e re st iv e re gio n o f X in jia ng b ein g a ca se in p oin t).
