University of Pisa
Faculty of Economics
Master’s thesis in Terrorism and Economic Development -2016
Topic: Terrorism and its impact on growth of Pakistan
Economy (after 9/11)
Ali Raza
Abstract
In the recent history, Pakistan is facing the danger of terrorism. Besides fronting the consequences of Afghan War, Pakistan is also affected by several ethnic, religious and linguistic conflicts which have amplified terrorist’s activities. Thousands of civilians and armed forces people were died in wave of attacks since 2001 after 9/11 attacks. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has gone to its very low level in that time period. During the last 14 years the country has to suffer unbearable losses directly and indirectly. The total loss during these 14 years has reached to $106.98 billion .There are plans for a corridor
stretching from the Chinese border to Pakistan's deep water ports on the Arabian Sea but again there are many Challenges to make this broad package of infrastructure project Successful against menace of terrorism. These conflicts have severely affected the socio-economic structure of Pakistan.
Chapter 1.0
Introduction
1.1 Definition of terrorism
1.2 History of terrorism in Pakistan
1.3 Sectarianism, Ethnic Conflicts in Pakistan 1.4 Ethnic Conflict in Pakistan
1.5 Sectarian Conflict in Pakistan
Chapter 2.0
Socio- Economic Cost of Terrorism
2.1 Impact of Terrorism on Education in Pakistan 2.2 Education and Infrastructure
2.3 Agriculture Structure 2.4 Manufacturing Structure 2.5 Tourism
2.6 Direct and Indirect Cost of Terrorism 2.7 Social cost of Terrorism
2.8 Human cost
Chapter 3.0
3.1 Theoretical Framework of FDI
Chapter 4.0
Pakistan China Economic Corridor (CPEC)
4.1 Challenges for CPEC
4.2 Implications after completion of CPEC
4.3 Pakistan’s complex security situation: Terrorism and militancy as major threats for CPEC
4.4 Effects of CPEC on unstable Baluchistan
4.4.1 World Largest Gold and Copper Mine Reko Diq Baluchistan - Pakistan 4.5 Indian Sponsored Terrorism in Pakistan and CPEC
Chapter 5.0
Zarb-e-Azb
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Definition of terrorism;
Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat of use of violence throw individuals or subnational groups toobtain a political and social objective through the intimidation of a large audience, beyond that of the immediate victims. Although the motives of terrorists may be different, their actions follow a particular pattern with terror incidents assuming a variety of methods: airplane hijackings, kidnappings, killings, threats, bombings, and suicide attacks. Terror attacks are intended to apply adequate pressures on government so that it grants political concessions. If a besieged government assess the anticipated costs of future terrorist actions as bigger than the costs of conceding to terrorist demands, then a
government will make some accommodation. Thus, a rational terrorist organization can, in principle, reach its goal faster if it is able to increase the consequences of its campaign. These consequences can assume many forms including casualties, destroyed buildings, a sharp anxiety level, and uncountable economic costs. Clearly, the attacks on September 11, 2001 (henceforth, 9/11) had significant costs that have been estimated to be in the range of $80 to $90 billion when subsequent economic losses in lost wages, workman’s
compensation, and reduced commerce are included1. Terrorism can impose costs on a targeted country through a number of avenues. Terrorist incidents have economic consequences by diverting foreign direct investment (FDI), destroying infrastructure,
1
redirecting public investment funds to security, or limiting trade. If a developing country loses enough FDI, which is an important source of savings, then it may also experience reduced economic growth. Just as capital may take flight from a country plagued by a civil war (see Collier et al., 2003), a sufficiently intense terrorist campaign may greatly reduce capital inflows (Enders and Sandler, 1996). Terrorism, like civil conflicts, may cause spill over costs among neighbouring countries as a terrorist campaign in a neighbour dissuades capital inflows, or a regional multiplier causes lost economic activity in the terrorism-ridden country to resonate throughout the region. In some instances, terrorism may impact specific
industries as 9/11 did on airlines and tourism2. Another cost is the expensive security measures that must be instituted following large attacks – e.g., the massive homeland security outlays since 9/11 3Terrorism also raises the costs of doing business in terms of higher insurance premiums, expensive security precaution, and larger salaries to at-risk employees. The size and the diversity of an economy have much to do with the ability of a country to withstand terrorist attacks without showing significant economic effects. Yemen’s shipping industry suffered greatly after the terrorist attacks on the USS Cole and the Limburg diverted half of Yemen’s port activities to competitive facilities in Djibouti and Oman due to a 300% increase in insurance premiums4. In a more diversified and developed economy, such losses may have a temporary influence as resources are reallocated to other sectors or better security measures are deployed to allay concerns. Moreover, developed economies have better monetary and fiscal capabilities to limit macroeconomic impacts of terrorist attacks than small developing countries. Thus, we should anticipate that developed countries are more likely to display sector-specific reactions to terrorism attacks, while
2
Drakos, 2004; Ito and Lee, 2004 3
(Enders and Sandler, 2006, Chapter 10). 4
developing countries are apt to exhibit some macroeconomic consequences to a particularly vicious attack or a sustained terror campaign. 5
1.2 Domestic versus transnational terrorism
Terrorism comes in two essential types: domestic and transnational. Domestic terrorism is home-grown with consequences for just the host country, its institutions, citizens, property, and policies. In a domestic terrorist incident, the victim and perpetrators are from the host country. The Oklahoma City bombing on April 19, 1995 was a domestic terrorist event as was the kidnapping of members of Parliament by Colombian terrorists. Many ethno-nationalist conflicts (e.g., the Tamils of Sri Lanka) are associated with mostly domestic terrorism, unless the rebels desire to target citizens from other countries to publicize their cause to the world. Domestic events tend to outnumber transnational terrorist events by eight to one.6
In contrast, transnational terrorism involves more than one country. This international aspect can stem from the victims, targets, institutions, supporters, terrorists, or
implications. For example, 9/11 is a transnational terrorist event because the victims were from many different countries, the mission was financed and planned from abroad, the terrorists were foreigners, and the implications of the events (e.g., financial and security) were global. A hijacking that originates in one country but terminates in another country is an instance of transnational terrorism as is the assassination for political ends of a foreigner on a city street. Transnational terrorist attacks often entail Tran’s boundary externalities: actions or authorities in one country impose uncompensated consequences on person or property in another country. Thus, spill over costs can result so that the economic impact of
5
sandler and endler 2004 6
a terrorist event may transcend the host country. The toppling of the World Trade Centre towers on 9/11 killed many British nationals and had ramifications for British financial institutions. 7Showed that 9/11 negatively influenced average returns on stock markets globally. In fact, the 11-day cumulative average abnormal returns were larger on the London, Frankfurt, Paris, Toronto, Amsterdam , Switzerland, Italy, and Hong Kong stock markets than on the New York Stock Exchange following 9/11. The four blasts on 9/11 reverberated on capital markets worldwide.
The distinction between domestic and transnational terrorism is of utmost importance when determining the right data for calculating the economic consequences of terrorism. Suppose that we want to relate the growth in real per capita GDP to the level of terrorism. Then, for a country plagued by both domestic and transnational terrorism, it becomes imperative that all forms of terrorism are included in the terrorism measure on the right-hand side of the equation. This is also true for a country-specific study of terrorism’s consequences on macroeconomic variables. If, however, one is interested in the impact of terrorism on a host country’s net foreign direct investment (NFDI), then transnational terrorist attacks are most germane, since these attacks pose a more direct risk on foreign investors’ interests. If only transnational terrorist attacks are included as a determinant of GDP growth, and if, additionally, domestic attacks tend to be correlated with transnational terrorist incidents, and then the coefficient on terrorism will be biased. Furthermore, the coefficient on terrorism may reveal little about the true quantitative relationship when domestic terrorism greatly exceeds the number and/or intensity of transnational terrorism.
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1.2 History of terrorism
The roots and practice of terrorism can be traced at least to the 1st-century AD Sicarii Zealots, though some dispute whether the group, which assassinated collaborators with Roman rule in the province of Judea, was in fact terrorist. The first use in English of the term 'terrorism' occurred during the French Revolution's Reign of Terror, when the Jacobins, who ruled the revolutionary state, employed violence, including mass executions by guillotine, to compel obedience to the state and intimidate regime enemies. The association of the term only with state violence and intimidation lasted until the mid-19th century, when it began to be associated with non-governmental groups. Anarchism, often in league with
rising nationalism and anti-monarchism, was the most prominent ideology linked with terrorism. Near the end of the 19th century, anarchist groups or individuals committed assassinations of a Russian Tsar and a U.S. President.8
In the 20th century, terrorism continued to be associated with a vast array of anarchist, socialist, fascist and nationalist groups, many of them engaged in 'third world' anti-colonial struggles. Some scholars also labelled as terrorist the systematic internal violence and intimidation practiced by states such as the Stalinist Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.910
Terrorist threats and actions have come in many forms, including hijacking of commercial flights in the 1970s, the 1983 suicide attack on US and French contingents of the
multinational peacekeeping force in Beirut, the attack on Pearl Harbour on December 7, 1941,and the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center, the 1993 bombing in the City of
8http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/28/opinion/28furstenberg.html?em&ex=1193803200&en=62eaa390a911d2d4&ei=5087&_r=0 9
Nazi Terror Begins, United States Holocaust Museum, 20 June 2014
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London, the 1995 Sarin gas attack in the Tokyo metro and the 1996 bombing of a US military compound in Saudi Arabia, which put terrorism at the forefront of the subsequent G7 summit . Subsequently in the Indonesian island of Bali, Madrid, and most recently, in London in July 2005, served as a global wake-up call and focused attention on national vulnerability. Terrorist attacks on the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania have been increasingly more destructive and claimed a growing number of lives.
Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. Although the immediate economic impact of the 9-11 attacks was devastating, consumer confidence and the stock markets recovered quickly. However, there are three important consequences of the 9-11 attacks that will be long lasting: (a) Insurance coverage for terrorism-related activities will be more difficult to obtain and insurance premiums have already increased considerably;
(b) Pressure is mounting to tighten security at the national borders to better screen the flows of merchandise crossing the borders, and
(c) Public spending on security and military operations is on the rise. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies
to combat terrorism. Here, I will review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy.
1.3 History of terrorism in Pakistan, Sectarianism, Ethnic Conflicts in
Pakistan
Pakistan has been suffering from terrorism from the last three decades. Due to its geo-strategic position, Pakistan became a centre stage of terrorist activities. When the USSR attacked Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan being a neighbouring country had also to face the brunt of that invasion11. It was first the Afghans who started their resistance with old weapons. Pakistan finding itself to be the next in the list of conquered countries by the USSR, had to retaliate by helping Afghans to stop the Soviet invasion. Afterwards, the US and her western allies joined the bandwagon to counter the spread of communist ideology. Pakistan served as the primary logistical channel for the Afghan resistance. The military aid from Pakistan and the US and financial backing from Arab countries enabled Afghans to drive the USSR out of Afghanistan in 1989. After the USSR left, Pakistan and the Afghans were left alone by their former allies and a ruling power vacuum was created. A civil war for the power started in Afghanistan which had also repercussions for her neighbouring country Pakistan12. Various unstable governments in Afghanistan were installed, but due to their weakness, Afghanistan faced worst kind of law and order situation in the country13. It was during that time, Afghans (disappointed with civil war) were waiting for some strong government which could stabilize the law and order situation in Afghanistan. This strong
11 Musa khan Jalalzai, Sectarianism and Politico- Religious Terrorism in Pakistan, Lahore, Tarteeb Publishers, 993, p.164
form of government came in the shape of former Afghan students (Taliban) of Madrassas (religious schools) operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Taliban had a strong government and controlled the law and order situation much more forcefully. But the government of Taliban was only formally accepted by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE only. Their non-acceptance by other countries secluded them from mainstream global community. Finding a good base for propagation of their version of radical Islam, the earlier Arab Mujahedeen (those who fought against Soviet Union) also returned back along with new Arab, Central Asian Islamists and African Mujahedeen. Al-Qaeda was founded by once blue eyed boy of the US, Osama bin Laden. After 9/11 attack, US alleged Al-Qaeda for this attack and in retaliation attacked Afghanistan, over threw Taliban’s government. Infuriated by foreign invasion on their motherland another war for independence of Afghanistan was started. Taliban were also joined by the other former Mujahedeen organizations. The US pressure on the then Pakistani president Musharraf government led Pakistan to take U turn by closing its ties with their former friends, i.e. Taliban. Since Afghanistan is a land locked country,
therefore, Pakistan provides the transit route for the US military equipment to Afghanistan. Pakistan also provided air bases to the US air force14. After the US attack on Afghanistan, tribal people in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) formed Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Student Movement of Pakistan). Some of those radical Islamists had previously fought against the USSR in Afghanistan and new recruits joined the Pakistani Taliban and took control of the most parts of the FATA and practically Pakistan government lost her control over most of the FATA. The Pakistani Taliban wanted to fight against the US in Afghanistan and also asked Pakistani government to take back her support to the US. Besides, they wanted to implement their own version of Islam in Pakistan. Pakistan’s
14
government retaliated starting military operations against the Taliban in FATA and Swat, where Taliban had control. Besides military operations the US started attacks on tribal areas of Pakistan by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to target Taliban and Al-Qaeda leadership. The collateral damage in terms of human and property losses due to military operations and the UAV attacks resulted in retaliation by Taliban. They targeted military, police and other security agencies and current wave of terrorism in Pakistan is led by those Taliban.15
1.4 Ethnic Conflict in Pakistan
During the eighties Pakistan was also in the grip of ethnic strife in the province of Sindh mainly in the capital city, Karachi. Various factions were involved in ethnic conflicts in Karachi. Karachi is the centre of economic activities. Due to ample business and
employment opportunities, people from all over Pakistan are attracted to reside in Karachi. Besides the natives i.e. Sindh’s, residents of other three provinces of Pakistan all came to Karachi. Over time, ethnic segregation continued and this segregation later resulted in ethnic conflicts. These conflicts started in mid-80 and were at peak in 1990’s. Both Pakistan People’s Party and Muslim League governments initiated military operations during 1990’s. These operations were partially successful. Later on in the first decade of the twenty first century, although, these ethnic conflicts came to a halt, however, unrest still continued in the form of increased criminal activities. The most prominent of these criminal activities is extortion, especially from businessmen. Although, a new operation is being launched
15 Ganguly 2001 28
Jalal 2009 29 Gleditsch, 2004 30 “CIA World Fact Book”, p. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the–world [accessed 25 February 2013]. 31 Hussain 2010 32 R. Hathaway 2005 33 Hussain 2010 34 “Hindus Population In Pakistan” n.d. 3 April 2013
against these criminal activities, however, there is little success in controlling, which is evident from the rampant crimes in Karachi.
1.5 Sectarian Conflict in Pakistan
Terrorism in Pakistan, influenced by various global and local events, went through various evolutionary stages. In 1977, General Zia-ul-Haque came to power through a military coup and arrested and later executed the then Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. This led to a formation of a terrorist out-fit named Al-Zulfiqar. In order to quash the terrorist outfit and Mr Bhutto’s popularity in his home province, General Zia created an ethnic based militant political party in his province, composed of immigrants from India, the Muhajir Qaumi Movement (MQM). Terrorism by and against MQM has accounted for around 40 per cent of all terrorist violence in the country since its formation.16General Zia, to establish his own constituency and legitimize his rule, also enforced some strict Islamic laws in the country based on a certain Sunni jurisprudence. The Iranian revolution encouraged the minority religious sect (Shias) in Pakistan, to openly protest against the Sunni interpretation of laws and demanded that they should be exempt from the law. General Zia, responded again, by creating an anti-Shia religious militant organization (Sipah-e-Sahaba). The Sipah-e-Sahaba SSP gave rise to many splinter terrorist groups. Around 30% of all terrorism in Pakistan can be traced back to SSP, including the current wave of suicide terror attacks post 9/11. Another factor greatly influencing the evolution of terrorism in Pakistan is the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. To counter the Soviet threat, the US injected around six billion dollars into the region to fight the Soviets (Weiner, 1998). After the soviet withdrawal in 1989, the US left the region with thousands of battle hardened and armed militants who,
16
ironically, turned against Pakistan and the US after 9/11. The terrorism in Pakistan went through two major stages. The first stage occurred with coinciding of ethnic and sectarian terrorism as a consequence of formation of MQM and separatist movements in Baluchistan (one of Pakistan’s four provinces). The second stage was one of religious terrorism, which was a consequence of incurring the wrath of militants because of Pakistan’s support for US in its war against terror. As recent wave of171819terror has been much more deadly in terms of fatalities 20 . For example, from 1973-2001, average terrorism induced deaths per year were around 125, whereas from 2001-2008, the death toll had risen more than three-fold with over 480 fatalities per year.
17
Rosser 2003p551 24 Rosser 2003p552 25 R. Hathaway 2005p19
5 To qualify for an act to be considered terrorism the following GTD criteria had to be fulfilled: 1. The violent act was aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal;
2. The violent act included evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger audience (or audiences) other than the immediate victims; and
Chapter 2
Economic Cost of Terrorism
The ongoing insurgency has accelerated an already worsened economic situation and has ruined almost every economic aspect of the country, particularly in FATA and KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (NORTHERN PROVINCE) . Most main resources of revenue in the affected areas were destroyed including agriculture, tourism industry, manufacture and small scale industry.
2.1 Impact of Terrorism on Education in Pakistan
The current government of Pakistan is unable to protect the precious life of innocent citizens of Pakistan.
There are too much terrorism activities in Karachi Peshawar Lahore and Baluchistan. Several terrorist groups are responsible for these terrorists' attacks. The security agencies including Police and rangers or army are unable to give security to the citizens of Pakistan. There are a number of bad impacts of terror because terrorists’ activities are destroying the economy of Pakistan. Because of this horrible situation, foreign investors have stopped their investment in our country. Terrorism in Pakistan has inculcated adverse effects on the educational sector and the worth of education in Pakistan21. There are many effects on the education. The level of education has been destroyed in the Pakistan due to continuously killing attacks and terrorism on the educational sectors. Between 2000 and 2004, Pakistanis in the age group 55–64 had a literacy rate of almost 38%, those ages 45–54 had a literacy rate of
21
nearly 46%, those 25–34 had a literacy rate of 57%, and those ages 15–24 had a literacy rate of 72%. Education is most powerful weapon in our country the education is very important in our society. Currently education is compulsory for our children.
Figure 1 A suiside attack on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa school
But now a day educational facilities are destroyed by terrorism. Day by day terrorism increase in our society, but government does not act against these terrorist bringing
different threats to the country each day. The students are not going to schools and collages because infused terrorism, and widely terrorist attacks on schools and colleges. Infect the Pakistan faced different kind of terrorism. Many cities are influence targeting killing and bomb blast attacks. The present government has not taken any action which has had a negative international impact on the country. Education is very low in government sector but in private sector the education level is high.
The major impact of this activity is that are on their way to school or even the school are being target by bombs and the parents have stopped their children to attend the school and which have reduced the level of education in the country where the literacy rate is already very low. Hundreds of schools were blown up in FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area)
and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) regions while some of the most horrible incidents were suicide,the attacks on international institution including schools and colleges and universities, causing the already low literacy rate to continuously decrease.
Education is the most important aspect of any society or country, but due to these terrorist attacks the educational facilities are very poor. There are many terrorists organizations in Pakistan that are involve in terrorism. With the passage of time terrorists activities are increasing day by day, every day more than one such incidence occur which include bomb blasts, target killings, suicidal attacks and many others. Many people are being killed in these terrorism activities in the name of religion. People of Pakistan are fed up with this everyday situation because there is not a single person safe in our country.22
Late last year, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism released a report that tabulated data from 1970 to 2013. The purpose of the report was to study how, where and at what rate educational institutions are being targeted by terror groups. Although the report’s data collection stopped in the year 2013, Pakistan was still ranked first.
22 Hussain 2010 , Riaz 2008 , Jalal 2009 , Hegghammer and Lacroix 2007 41 Davies 2013 p22
Figure 2
Out of 3,400 attacks spread over 110 countries in the time period 1970 to 2013 studied23, 724 took place in Pakistan, making up close to a fourth of the entire number. This was so even without including the grisly attack on Peshawar’s Army Public School in December 2014. Ten per cent of all terrorist attacks in Pakistan targeted schools. The second position was held by Thailand, which experienced 213 attacks — less than half the number of attacks in Pakistan.
Table 1
23
According to the report, schools, educational institutions and universities were 88% more likely to be targeted in the country than the world average, which stands at 69%. The majority of the attacks on schools (and, once again, this does not include Peshawar) were non-lethal and directed at educational infrastructure.
Figure 3
The methods mostly included explosive devices, arson or incendiary devices that were pointed at primary, middle or high schools while the buildings were unoccupied. The primary goal of these attacks appears to be disruption of the educational process, particularly at girls’ schools, rather than loss of life. Three-quarters of the attacks were carried out by “unknown perpetrators” even though the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan took responsibility for 136 of them.24
The fact that the Peshawar attack was, unlike the many hundred preceding ones,
particularly intended to cause a huge loss of life represents an escalation in violence and perhaps an increased desire to target not simply infrastructure25 but also students — to deliberately cause the loss of life rather than simply a loss of infrastructure.
24 Erin Miller Dec 2014 (Terrorist Attacks on Educational Institutions) 25
The latest Unesco report I quoted26 said that Pakistan’s spending, at 2.5% of the GDP, is one of the lowest in the world27. According to the same report, in 2012 Pakistan had the largest number of out-of-school children in the world, numbering about 5.4 million, outdoing for instance India which has a much larger population.
Just as the terrorism report reveals that girls’ schools are more likely to be targeted for destruction, so the Unesco report reveals that girls are less likely to be educated and less money is spent on their education. Destroying girls’ access to education is a top priority for terrorists — providing that same access is a low priority for the state. Together they create a perfect collusion of ignorance, an insistence that the female remain relegated to a short life of child bearing and illiteracy.
There are of course concrete things that can be done. The organisation Alif Ailaan28, which has done exemplary work in data collection and presentation in the education sector, recently released its 2015 district rankings. The compilation reflects their effort to make education a basis of evaluating politicians and their commitments to the issue.
Included, thus, are rankings by politicians of how districts are faring in educational rankings in the hope of furthering the norm that those in power owe it to their constituents to augment the measly sums normally dedicated to education.
Mian Nawaz Sharif’s (Prime Minister of Pakistan) district in Lahore, from where he has been re-elected a whopping seven times is placed at number three among the 148 national districts ranked. On a topic on which hope is elusive or just plain unavailable, it is perhaps a good thing that this is so.
26
Global Education Monitoring Report (Unesco 2009)
27
Riedel 2010 28
At the same time, one can’t help but wonder if the requirement for a district doing well in education rankings is having their elected representative ascend to great heights and become prime minister. It may well be the case, but regardless, the efforts of Alif Ailaan to juxtapose the two — political office and the improvement of education — are
commendable. If not education itself, they promote at least the premise that education and its provision is a reasonable expectation for the Pakistani citizen.
To those who have been engaged in scratching their collective heads on the languishing literacy rates in the country, the cumulative results of the reports should provide some food for thought.
Is the government of Pakistan refusing to invest in educational infrastructure because it believes it to be a futile endeavour, buildings erected only to lie hollow and empty and eventually be blown up by terrorist adversaries?29 At the same time, it could be alleged that the opposition to education, the destruction of it, is related to its absence and its close relationship to class, the relative unavailability of it to the very poor.
One cannot help but wonder whether it is easier to blow up a school when one has never been to school, to be a foot soldier in the war on knowledge if one believes it to be inaccessible to oneself.
Data collection and the formulation of reports are crucial pieces of the education puzzle in Pakistan. Other portions, however, pose deeper questions whose answers may not be as easily captured in numbers and reports.
29
A war on education, one that has landed Pakistan on top of the list of countries where terror targets classrooms, must be understood not as something incidental, some small offshoot of some other ideological agenda.
It is, instead, the war itself, a battle that believes that in the isolation of ignorance, which is precisely the result of its onslaught, there lies some form of authenticity. It is this imagined school-less land that is at issue here; and it is this belief in it that is reflected in the low numbers of the learned and the ever-towering ones of those who has put their faith in ignorance.30
30
RAFIA ZAKARIA 201530 Xavier 1997
Data collected from all over Paksitan 2016 by Alif Ailaan.
During the year 2009, terrorism overshadowed all the sectors especially education which was the worst hit by militancy.
Hundreds of schools were blown up in FATA (Federal Administered Tribal Area) and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) regions while most horrible incident was twin suicide attacks on the International Islamic University, Islamabad, which claimed lives of six innocent people, including three female students, in October.
The tragic incident spread a wave of panic and subsequently educational institutions, including schools, colleges and universities, had to face closure across the country for over one week. It also led to a massive exercise regarding implementation of maximum security arrangements at educational institutions and a controversy also surfaced when private schools demanded the government ensure security for institutions in private sector.
The deteriorating law and order situation also caused cancellation of various education-related events which, otherwise, were happening on a regular basis.
Nonetheless, the situation also gave birth to some innovative ideas of teaching and learning. A number of private schools introduced e-learning software in a bid to cover the academic loss of students in case the schools had to be closed down unexpectedly over security issues.
Another unfortunate aspect of the whole episode was collection of extra charges by some elite private schools in the name of security. The stakeholders who had been raising concerns over the absence of government control over affairs of the privately educational institutions were exploited yet again.
A number of incidents related to prank calls by students were also reported, highlighting the psychological impact of the prevailing situation.
Like mainstream education, the reforms in Deeni Madaris (religious seminaries) remained a challenge for the government as it did not make concrete efforts to bring religious schools at par with mainstream educational institutions.
The new National Education Policy, which otherwise attracted strong criticism, also asked the Interior Ministry to establish a regulatory authority for religious seminaries with to reform them, providing them better facilities and modernising the syllabus so that their students could compete with others in the job market.
In Punjab, people have been waiting for a body supposed to regulate and streamline the affairs of private educational institutions of the province. The Punjab government made tall claims of evolving a regulatory body for private schools besides amending the Punjab Private Educational Institutions (Promotion and Regulation) Ordinance, 1984, but nothing practical had been witnessed so far despite the passage of almost one year when Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif had formed a special 'high power' committee in this connection. There is a common feeling that since elite private schools are owned by families of
politicians, the government does not want to 'hurt' the few bigwigs at the cost of the poor.
As far as the new National Education Policy is concerned, it's most important part is that the allocation for education would be seven per cent of the national GDP by 2015. However, meagre allocation for this important sector as seen in previous years has been worrying educationists who believe that it should not be merely a statement this time.
Another important announcement in the said policy was that grades XI and XII will not be part of the college education as intermediate level education would be merged into the school education. This particular announcement too invited strong reservations from the stakeholders, especially teachers, who term the move a conspiracy against the country's education system.
The year 2009 witnessed a lot of initiatives by the Punjab government in the field of education, however, there were some issues which remained unattended. The teachers' training programme for college teachers could not be launched despite the unfortunate fact that allocations in this connection had lapsed in the previous budget.31
2.2 Education and Infrastructure
Terrorism also has considerable implications for the future of education in Pakistan. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NORTHERN PROVINCE) Department of Education reports that education for students in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) has been affected because of damaged or destroyed schools in the province. Those affected includes 65 per cent of schools in Swat and 35% in Buner, Upper and Lower Dir, Shangla, and Malakand Districts. Swat is the most affected where female education has been prohibited by
militants. Moreover, it is not just girls’ schools that have been targeted in Swat. More than 42 per cent of boy’s schools were destroyed in Swat. According to some estimates nearly 150,000 students have been deprived of education while 8,000 female teachers are without a job due to the insurgency. In addition, more than 190 government schools have been
31
Zia 2003p166
burnt with approximately 45,504 students enrolled in these schools in the war affected area of Swat.
According to the former senior Vice-President of Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Sohail Lashari, the Swat war had displaced two million residents, increased unemployment, discontinued education of youth, badly damaged infrastructure, Ending tourism - the main source of income generation of the area -sparked spill-over violence in other parts of the country, and stopped the supply of essential raw materials from Swat like marble, gems and jewellery and furniture industries. Lashari said that frequent bombings, the deteriorating law and order situation, and displacement of the local population, had taken a toll on the socio-economic fabric of the country, especially the embattled Northern areas.
2.3 Agriculture Structure
Agriculture is the main source of revenue in the most terrorism affected areas, FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NORTHERN PROVINCE) . They predominantly rely on agriculture as their main economic activity.
The districts of Swat, Buner, Shangla and Lower Dir along with Malakand Agency are famous for their specialized agricultural produces all over the country32.
The troubled belt contributes enormously to national production of; Peach (60 per cent), Pear (34 per cent), Tomato (18 per cent), Apple (15 per cent), Plum (14 per cent), Tobacco (11 per cent), Maize (8 per cent), Onion (8 per cent), All vegetable (5 per cent), Apricot (5
32
Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft forDiscussion)
per cent), Wheat (1 per cent), and Rice (1 per cent). The five districts are also the main source of Persimmon (Japani fruit ). Swat leads the other four districts in production of fruits by a big margin. National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) survey report shows that nearly 48 per cent of Pakistan’s total fruit is produced by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) , with the Swat district being a major contributor33.
Swat has 98,100 hectares cultivable while 408,175 hectares remain uncultivable. Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for 80 per cent of the population. In overall provincial
production of vegetables, one-fourth vegetable production comes from Swat.
These commodities arrive in markets when supplies from other corners of the country are short. Normally 500 to 600 trucks transport fruit from Swat to the rest of the country during the harvest season on a daily basis.
In addition, Swat’s farming system was seminal, and a model for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) in particular and the country in general in pre-2001 period, since it was a centre of fruit orchards coupled with multi utility processing industries, cold storages, huge dry storages and an efficient transportation and marketing system. Swat was a training centre for budding and grafting while the nursery industry of fruits was on rise. The
experienced bidders worked in the rest of the province and even in Baluchistan especially for olives. Its plant nursery production ranked third in the country after Pathoki (Lahore) and Tarnab (Peshawar).But due to the insurgency, Swat valley has been subject to continuous attacks since200734. As per government of Pakistan estimates, loss to agriculture amounts
33
Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft forDiscussion), http://cppr.edu.pk/download/Estimating%20Conflict%20Cost%20-2009-08-20.pdf
34
Farmer Report,Conflict paralyzed agriculture desperate for support South Asia Partnership- Pakistan - Punjab Lok Sujag ; FR 09/09; June 2009
to Rs. 35 billion. Local media, citing Swat-based agriculture officers, both public and private, has reported that 55 to 70 per cent of the total fruit produce has been lost or wasted35.
This was due to the use of force, artillery shelling, blowing of bridges in bomb blasts, blockade of roads, attacks and curfew damaged the district fruit-based economy and rendered billions of rupees of losses to the landowners, dealers and farmers36. So it has not only affected the land owners but also dealers and labourers who earn their livelihood from these orchards. In addition37, the Economic Survey of Pakistan report shows that the share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been falling persistently38. It accounted for 25.9 per cent of GDP in 1999-2000; however, gradually its share shrank to 21.3 per cent in 2007-08 but improved slightly to 21.8 per cent of GDP in 2008-09.The above figures show that it has not only decreased the productive capacity of agricultural activity in these regions but also in the whole country39.
2.4 Manufacturing Structure
The manufacturing sector has been hard hit by political instability and frequent incidents of terrorism and has created an uncertain environment resulting into low level of economic growth40. It is witnessing its lowest ever share in the GDP of 18.2 per cent in the last five years41. In addition, the small and medium size enterprises are a key area of manufacturing activity in Pakistan particularly in war affected areas. Power looms, precious and semi-precious stone mining, wood and marble work and small units of consumer items are
35
Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed, Weekly Pager,CRSS , June 14, 2009
36
Ibid
37 F. M. Zahid, Impact of War in Swat valley on farming sector,AIRRA,April 2009 38
Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
39 Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed,Weekly Pager,CRSS , June 14, 2009 40 ibid
41
affected across the country because of power shortages and frequent terrorist attacks in the country.42 As a result, the mining and quarry sector has shown the lowest ever growth in almost one decade and grew by only 1.3 per cent in 2008-09 as compared to 4.4 per cent growth last year and a target of 5.0 per cent43. The contribution of this sector towards GDP has remained low at around 2.5 per cent. The following table 4, growth performance of various sectors in Pakistan are helpful to evaluate the economic situation of Pakistan in this period.
Table 4 Sectorial contribution to gdp Growth (points %)
According to the Finance Minister, Shaukat Tarin, financial year 2008-09 was the worst economic year of the decade as real economic growth was lowest in last eight years and has fallen to 2.0 per cent, against the average of 6.3 per cent in last six years. It is also
apprehended that one of the prime contributors to this derailing is Pakistan’s proactive role in war against terror in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) and FATA. In addition, Pakistan bears the cost of around $40 billion since 2001-02 for countering the war. Pakistan economy is also suffering $6 billion export losses per annum.44
42
Status quo is maintained in fiscal year 2010 budget: http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/Dawn%2...-and-beyond--il
43 War on terror cost Pakistani economy $40 bn: Minister, www.southasianews.com, 27 October, 2009 44
2.5 Tourism
A country where there are huge mountains, highest peaks, flowing rivers and beautiful lakes where the birds from Siberia migrate to during the winters. The dancing waves of the sea and the welcoming arms of the deserts. A country on whose history, civilisation and culture, the entire world prides itself on. A country that is full of different kinds of rich culture.45 Its green fields resound with melodies of Sufi poetry and people all over the world are lovers of its folk songs. Having all of the above, if a country does not have a tourist, then that country is unfortunate.
All those foreigners who used to visit Pakistan have now forgotten the route to our country. Even our own people who were somewhat interested in sightseeing and wished to tell their children about our civilisation and history and thus used to go on tours across the country during school holidays now cannot muster up the courage to step out of their homes. The rich ones don’t like to see the beauty of their own country anyway and prefer to spend every holiday abroad.
Even if Pakistanis wanted to tour their own country, their feet are put in iron shackles first by the inflation and then by the unrest and the widespread plundering and killing, as well as the bomb blasts; preventing them from stepping out of their homes.
And where will a Pakistani go anyway? Baluchistan, where the rule of terror and the FC exists? Or Sindh, where neither the cities are safe nor the villages? Punjab, which is being gradually given up to the lashkars in the hope of obtaining more and more votes? Or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Northern Province) , which is trembling from the fear of the Taliban? Or Swat, where people’s main sustenance was through tourism, had just started to get back on
45
its feet when the Taliban shot Malala, thus pushing Swati’s’ deeper in the abyss. Are there any other places left for tourists?46
Countries or regions that depend heavily on tourism have been found to suffer significant economic losses from the persistence of terrorism since individuals who plan their holidays are less likely to choose a destination with a higher threat.47 Host countries providing tourism services, which can be easily substituted are, therefore, negatively affected by terrorist attacks to a considerable level. Northern areas and KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (NORTHERN PROVINCE) ’s area have been an important tourist destination in Pakistan and many people living there depend on tourism. But as most parts of Pakistan’s northern belt and KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (NORTHERN PROVINCE) have fallen into terrorists’ grip tourist revenue has dried up.
For example, Swat was an important tourist destination in Pakistan which attracted people from across the world not only to its natural beauty but also to see its rich civilization and history. Swat is suitable for all sorts of tourism i.e. eco-tourism, adventure tourism, spiritual tourism, culture/heritage tourism, sports and commercial tourism. It has over 400 Buddhist sites. It has also a number of snow- capped peaks, waterfalls, glaciers, springs, streams, vast grassy tracts, thick forests, natural parks, lakes and dark forests. It is an ideal place for both summer and winter tourism.48
Terrorism also impacts tourism in the afflicted countries and regions. Enders et al. (1992) examined tourism data for seven Western European countries covering the period between
46
Swat Hotel Industry Suffers Losses, http://www.thearynews.com/english/articledetail.asp?id=373 , January 24 , 2009
47
Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed, Weekly Pager,CRSS , June 14, 2009
48 Terrorism a threat to Pakistan’s tourism sector,
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/south-asia/terrorism-a-threat-to-pakistans-tourism-sector_100271808.html
1968 and 1988. They found that terrorism deterred tourists from some, but not all countries. Between January 1997 and December 2006, terrorism caused a decline of six million tourists in Turkey, which reduced tourism spending by $700 million in 2006 alone.49
There are more than 855 hotels, including 405 restaurants, in the valley and around 40,000 people are associated with these hotels. But these hotels have remained closed during the past three years due to militancy and the subsequent military operations by the Pakistan Army. According to the government’s estimates the hotel industry in Swat valley has suffered a loss of Rs. 60 Billion from 2007 to 2009. The workers associated with the hotel industry have lost their jobs; moreover, the transport industry has also faced a severe blow and both the national and international transport services have either closed or decreased their services between Peshawar, Islamabad and Lahore. As measure of this desperation is that the hotel association has offered10-day free stay packages in hotels in the Swat valley starting with the New Year 2010.
Swat Taliban militants, had destroyed the local tourism industry. Presently, Swat is struggling hard to restore its glory and re-secure its place in the tourism industry.
“Pakistan has facing loss of 100 billion dollar against war on terror. This damage has a lot of aspects, first is the tourism industry that has irreparably been damaged. According to a statistical report by Pakistan Association of Tourism before 2000, more than 1 million tourist visited Pakistan. But after 9/11 this number remains 10, 000 which is quite less. Just only in Gilgit-Baltistan before 9/11 20 to 25 thousand tourists visited Gilgit-Baltistan. But after the incident of 9/11 it has reduced to 5 thousand per year. During effluent year this number was
49
again reaching 10 to 12 thousand. About 300, 000 people of Gilgit Baltistan have direct or indirect relations with the tourism sector.
Baluchistan attracted foreign tourists and research scientists for its archaeological and paleontological importance.
“The first dinosaur fossils were discovered in the Barkhan district of the south-western province. The world's largest land mammal used to live, 24 million years ago, in Baluchistan and is named "Baluchitherium". Pakistan is now among the few countries of the world with relatively plentiful dinosaur fossils.”
Ziarat, a hill station in Baluchistan, attracts tourists due to its breath-taking scenery, healthy environment, juniper forests and historical artefacts. Ziarat residency is where Quaid E Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, spent his last days. But on June 15, 2013 Baloch separatists attacked the residency building in Ziarat with hand grenades and destroyed the historic monument. The attack dealt a severe blow to the local tourism industry.50
Now a new range of killing is started in Pakistan. The killings of 10 foreign climbers in Gilgit Baltistan in June 2013, tourism continues to suffer. The victims included 3 Ukrainians, 2 Slovakian, 2 Chinese, 1 Lithuanian, 1 Nepalese and 1 American of Chinese origin. This
incident ruined the image of tourism in Pakistan globally. The deaths of the tourists affected livelihood of millions.51 Tourists from all over the world now fear and are cancelling their organized visits to Pakistan. The major areas which are suffering now is Northern areas of Pakistan where the 7 highest peaks of the world stand gloriously strong under the biggest
50 https://sonyarehman.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/pakistan-fighting-terrorism-with-tourism/ 51
glaciers of the world have always been the major attraction for the adventure tourism industry climbers, hikers, cyclists and hikers from all over the world. Nanga Parbat is the peak which is believed to be the hardest mountaineering feat in the world. There is a
consensus among the world’s adventurists that Nanga Parbat is the deadliest of the peak. By deadliest, means in climbing point of view but the despicable terrorists gave it a new
meaning.
The incident had damaged the country's struggling tourism industry, as it raised security concerns among foreign tourists, who visit the Gilgit-Baltistan region in large numbers during the summer. The incident was an act of terrorism against tourism, which is a major source of income for Gilgit-Baltistan a haven for foreign mountaineers.
“The terrorist organization Tehrik -e-Taliban Pakistan's spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan confirmed his organization hand in the attacks. According to Ehsan, the attack was “in response to the US drone strike which killed Waliur Rehman Mehsud last month”, He further said that the attack was carried out by TTP's newly-revealed wing, 'Junood-e-Hafsa', which has been set only to target foreign citizens in Pakistan and convey a message to the world about drone attacks.52
After the incident tourism department, Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation PTDC has given some stats
52
“Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation PTDC claims that almost 1/3rd of the overall tourists have cancelled their visit to Pakistan, and the remaining 65% are not linked with the adventure tourism that involves trekking, camping, hiking and climbing mountains.53
Most Islamic scholars and Taliban told major reason behind these attacks that is “Taliban are against tourists and tourism stating that meeting with non-Muslims is Haram(forbidden in Islam) and that is the reason they have been attacking tourists all over the world
especially Pakistan. Taliban kidnapped two Czech Republic girls from Chaman area of Baluchistan province on April 15, 2013 and there are no where about of these girls but sources in government of Pakistan claim that they have been shifted to Afghanistan and will release after getting ransom from Czech government or families of the girls.”
Whole world came in state of shock after this incident. And people who dare to visit Pakistan while risking their lives got sad. Some examples are as under.
“An American climber, Kyle Dempster wrote a letter to Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan
registering his protest against the killings of the ten tourists and highlighting the importance of tourism in Pakistan. Dempster said that the climbers who are targeted were in their own mosque as Pakistan is “the Mecca of climbers”. Describing the northern mountain series, he wrote, „most stunning minarets on earth pierce sharply into the heavens, and from these summits we find our understanding of purity, beg for mercy, and cleanse ourselves of everything extraneous to the very place inside ourselves. In his letter, Dempster also wrote about the financial problems that the tourism industry would face that could have benefited Pakistan. His letter triggered a wave of awareness among people all over Pakistan who understand the need of Tourism, development and revenue.”
53
"This has changed the entire situation," Kobler said. “This was bad for Pakistan." He said he had heard that the army would deploy a further 70,000 soldiers to the region. "But that is like a drop of water in the sea." Kobler is now considering cancelling an expedition to the mountain planned for the year 2014.”54
“Before the terrorist attacks on the US in September 2001, more than 20,000 foreign tourists visited Gilgit-Baltistan each year. But the number has since fallen to about 5,000, according to the Pakistan association of tour operators.
This was the second attack in the chain of portraying horrible picture of the people of Pakistan, after the attack on the Sri-Lankan cricket team which isolated the country in the game and sport activities. First sports sector of the country was targeted in order to destroy the sports activities from the country and leave the country alone and in separation in the games and healthy activities.55 For instance, the attack on the Sri-Lankan cricket team scared many cricketers to come here because it was echoing everywhere that Pakistan was not suitable place for the foreigners to come and play game. Now the tourism sector has come under the grip of the terrorist so that the country could be isolated from the rest of the world. Once the bad image of the country is shown to the world then no individual will like to turn towards Pakistan because of the bad impression that has been imprinted on the people’s mind. In recent years, Chinese engineers and other nationals have also been attacked, injured and killed in different parts of the Pakistan.56
The Tourism department of Pakistan was already on the verge to decline due to the worst law and order situation across the country but these horrible and atrocious acts further
54 http://rahib-raza.blogspot.it/2013/07/tourism-of-pakistan-lost-tale
55 http://www.eturbonews.com/35639/worst-incident-terrorism-against-tourists-history 56
destroyed our identity and that led to the zero flow of tourists into these areas. Throughout the world, no tourist like to have a visit to an area where they are targeted without any reason as it is happening in Pakistan because of the deteriorated law and order situation of the country that is both tarnishing the image of our country and the foreigners are scared of coming into the best scenic and tourist’s places of the Asia.57
2.5.1 Attack on Islamabad's Marriot Hotel
On September 20th, 2008, Islamabad's strictly guarded Marriot Hotel exploded due to a massive suicide truck bomb. It was reported that the truck exploded about sixty feet from the hotel and that the bomb left a crater that was about 30 feet deep in front of the hotel building, killing at least 53 innocent people and injuring hundreds. While the rescuers carried a stream of blood-soaked bodies, dozens were pronounced dead inside the hotel that was still burning hours after the blast, devastating most of the five-story hotel. Bombing killed the Czech ambassador and two US defence department employees, six British citizens including a child and 270 other people.
The June 9th 2009 suicide attack blasted the Pearl Continental Hotel in the north-western city of Peshawar, Pakistan. The city's police chief reported that militants drove through "bomb-laden vehicle" through the Pearl Continental Hotel, shooting the security guards before colliding their truck into the building and exploding themselves as a suicide attempt. The blast led to fire in the four story hotel, leaving a deep crater outside the building, injuring more than 70 people and killing over 12.
2.5.2 Security Issue for Pakistan's Hotels
57
After attack on Marriot hotel security was given top priority in Hotel Industry in Pakistan in the major cities of Islamabad, Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore because terrorist groups in Pakistan continuously targeted the five star hotel chains for the simple reason of attacking Westerners and other foreign travellers. Pakistan’s hotel industry in particular has
witnessed 58a rapid decline ever since the Marriot blast in the capital city. Road side stalls; five star hotels; small rental rooms; elite guest halls; be it any of these segments, the overall hotel industry is bearing the brunt of the deadly blast.
“Fred Burton has explored the issues that surround these threats in the overall securities of the Hotel and Hospitality industry. Burton's research views hotels as targets, through the eyes of terrorists. "Islamists view hotels as places of vice, as men and women gather freely, drink alcohol, and commit acts that are against the Islamic religion.”
Burton adds that traditional security measures such as security cameras and improved training of guards are a danger forth industry. Thus, hotel owners should call for the use of more proactive security measures that are more physical and less cultural. Such security measure includes baggage screening, key checks, and identifying "stand-off areas" that may bother guests at first but turn out as an advantage for them soon or later.
According to the General Manager of a leading five star hotel in Islamabad, most of the profit for these leading hotels is generated from foreign tourists, diplomats and executives of multinational companies. “He has stated that "the top brass of several multinational companies have either left Pakistan or would leave soon". He also added how this has been
58
N. Hashmey, Should We Talk of Tourism under Terrorism?,http://wondersofpakistan.wordpress.com 34 Tahir Ali, Reviving tourism in Swat,Dawn NEWS report, 11 January, 2010
35 Swat Hotel Industry Suffers Losses, http://www.thearynews.com/english/articledetail.asp?id=373 ,January 24 , 2009
a "big blow to our businesses, as currently tourism is dead in Pakistan." An official of a leading hotel in Pakistan also demonstrated that hotels especially in the capital city have witnessed a "shortfall of customers from 40 percent to 60 percent" after the September 20th blast.”
“Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reports how terrorism has badly struck Pakistan's tourism industry and resulted in a "loss worth USD 400 million". N.W.F.P Minister for Tourism, Syed Aqil Shah has said that militancy has affected the tourism sector the most and the industry is suffering a loss of USD 50 million annually. He also argued that Pakistan has “matchless tourist resorts but due to extremism and militancy, tourists are not visiting the country" (Shah). Pakistan's N.W.F.P and northern Kashmir regions, which were once "hotspots" for tourists, have also been severely hit by terrorism for the same reasons, such as extremism and militancy.
According to the World Economic Forum, Pakistan ranked 113 out of 130 countries in 2009 for tourism. The source also said that many motels in the country’s restive northwest were closed as tourists were banned from those areas and the staff had migrated to other cities for work .
“The total economic impact of 9/11 is realistically immeasurable; however the world travel and tourism council has estimated the decrease of the travel and tourism demand
worldwide to be 10%. This equates to the job loss of 8.8 million people globally including airlines, hotels, tour operators, car rental and credit card companies, creating 1.7%
decreased of total GDP for the world economy. Before 9/11, the number of tourist arrival to the Pakistan was0.557 million and 0.50 million in 2000 and 2001 respectively. However this figure decreased to 0.498 million in 2002, which was after effect of attack on World Trade
Centre. During this period revenue receipts from tourism industry in Pakistan decreased from 551 million to 533million. During the expansion period of 2003-2006, flow of tourism towards Pakistan returned to its role of pacing employment growth by increase in flow of tourist arrivals to0.898 million by contributing 919 million to country foreign reserves in 2006; but no longer again it suffered a harsher loss after war on terror started in 2007 in Pakistan, which brought down the number of tourist arrivals to .82 million in 2008. Due to this war on terror international tourists have diverted their way towards different countries of the world.”
Business Recorder also reports how Pakistan earns only "$250 million or 0.02 percent of world's tourism industry that generates over $900 billion annually".
“According to a presentation of the Lahore School of Economics, terrorism has a negative impact on the national economy of Pakistan. The threat of terrorism not only diverts resources to security spending, driving up costs for businesses, but also creates instability about business prospects in the country. Insecurity that results from terrorism hampers the Foreign Direct Investment that goes into Pakistan. Investors fret that Islamic extremists may came into power, destabilizing social and economic structures in the country.
“Tourism industry is dead” said Mr. Ashraf Aman the first Pakistani to summit K-2, now running a business as a tour operator “Pakistan is beautiful and our mountains are unique and people from around the globe come to visit these heavenly places but what was once a developing industry is now merely surviving” said the legendary mountaineer.59
2.5.3 Tourism Industry Development
59
Tourism industry in developed states works as backbone of economy; these states provide best facilities to tourists coming from all across the world. For over a half century, tourism has been expanding in the world not only in developing Western states but Asian states are also trying to follow the suit by providing best facilities to the tourists. South Asian state is also generating revenue by promoting tourism. Pakistan can develop tourism industry as well .Gilgit Baltistan with its scenic beauty, and snow clad peaks, has great potential to promote Pakistan‟s tourism industry60. It is home to eight of the twenty highest peaks in the world than inspires climbers, mountaineers, trekkers and hikers to explore the wonders of the land.
Pakistan could become a fairly popular tourist destination due to its unique culture and geography having four seasons, ancient civilizations, monuments, historical places, gardens, mountains, meadow’s and a lot more. But to be successful on this front, Pakistan has to
61
overcome its weaknesses and for that purpose government’s first and foremost priority should be the maintenance of law and order situation and the elimination of terrorism that has not only crippled the economic and social life of the people but has also contributed to portray the negative international image of Pakistan. Pakistan also needs to encourage local tourism that rates very low in the country. The higher cost of staying in Northern areas of Pakistan has made it difficult for common people to travel to these remote areas that lacks basic infrastructure. Encouragement of local tourism is as much important as promoting foreign tourism.
2.5.4 Recent terrorist attacks on France and its tourism industry (an example)
60
John Londan The Effects of Terrorism & Tourism on the Economy of Pakistan
61
36 Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed, Weekly Pager,CRSS , June 14, 2009
37 Terrorism a threat to Pakistan’s tourism sector,http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/south-asia/terrorism-a-threat-to-pakistans-tourism-sector_100271808.html
Terrorist attacks are taking their toll on France’s tourism industry, with Paris bearing the brunt of a drop in visits by holidaymakers from outside Europe.
Overnight stays fell about 10 percent on average this year through July, with high-spending travellers from the U.S., Asia and the Persian Gulf states reacting strongly to the
attacks, French Secretary of State for Tourism Matthias Fekl said in an interview with the Journal du Dimanche Sunday. Luxury accommodation was the worst hit while travellers from Europe haven’t cancelled their plans, the minister was cited as saying.
Tourism is big business for France, which has been hit hardest among European countries by Islamic State-inspired killings since the start of last year. The murder in July of an elderly priest in Normandy and the Bastille Day massacre in Nice followed assaults last year in Paris -- one of the most-visited cities in the world -- on concert goers and a satiric newspaper.
International flight bookings to Nice dropped 57 percent compared with the previous year from the date of the attack to July 23, while planned arrivals this month and in September were down by about a fifth for France as a whole, according to travel-data
specialist Forward Keys, citing reservation numbers through July 23.
Even before the latest attacks, an indicator measuring revenue per hotel room in Paris was down 14 percent for the first five months of the year, according to a report by the French hotel lobby group Union des Metiers et des Industries de l’Hotellerie.
A poll by the Paris region tourism committee confirmed the trend. Reservations for August were deemed “bad or very bad” by more than half of the 450 local industry representatives surveyed.
Last month, Air France-KLM Group expressed concern about France’s standing as a tourist hotspot after the attacks and Paris-based Accor SA, Europe’s largest hotel operator, said first-half profit fell in part due to the killings.62
Through June, France reported a 5.8 per cent fall in air passenger traffic compared with the same period a year earlier. Hotel reservations in the Riviera region have dropped as much as 30 per cent in the weeks after the Nice attack, according to the economy ministry.
For France, the most visited country in the world, tourism is a central cog in an economy that has struggled to generate growth. The industry, which attracted 83m overseas visitors last year, accounts for 7 per cent of output and employs more than 2m people.
“We can’t allow ourselves to tolerate the threat of a new retreat or even of stagnation in this sector,” said Jean-Marc Ayrault, minister of foreign affairs, after an emergency meeting in July with tourism business leaders and public officials. It was a day before the Nice massacre.
Before this month’s attack on Nice — in which 84 people were killed by a man driving a 19-tonne truck — the damage had mostly been confined to Paris, France’s top attraction. In April and May, hotel stays in the capital were down 10 per cent from the previous year.
Still, the most recent numbers were not as bad as they had been in the weeks after the November attacks on the city that claimed 130 lives. And France’s successful hosting in June
62
