Adaptive learning and the cyclical behavior of output and inflation
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(59) Output-Lagged Output. Output- Lagged Inflation 1,2. 1,2. 1. 1. 0,8. 0,8. 0,6. 0,6. 0,4. 0,4. 0,2. 0,2. 0. 0 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. 6. -0,2. -0,2. -0,4. -0,4. -0,6. -0,6. -0,8. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. -0,8. Inflation- Lagged Output. Inflation-Lagged Inflation. 1,2. 1,2. 1. 1. 0,8. 0,8. 0,6. 0,6. 0,4. 0,4. 0,2. 0,2. 0. 0 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. -0,2. -0,2. -0,4. -0,4. -0,6. -0,6. -0,8. -0,8. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6}hi .G |L @?_ UhLttULhhi*@|L?t ? L_i* 2 ,^. H2 |T| @?_ W? @|L? ? L_i* 2 ,^*Mh4 At tiU|L? Thiti?|t |i ThLTih|it Lu L_i* 2 ,^*Mh4 AhL}L| |i tiU|L? | t @tt4i_ |@| |i i*@t|U|) Lu *@MLh tTT*) t }i? M) 0?c ' Hc U t @| |i *Lih i?_ Lu |i h@?}i uLh U L_i* 2 ,^*Mh@ i t| *L i*@t|U|) @*i @t Mii? ULti? MiU@ti }ih L?it L*_ }i?ih@|i ii? 4Lhi Tihtt|i?Uic @t t @h}i_ |L@h_t |i i?_ Lu |t tiU|L? 6}hi . _iTU|t |i @|L @?_ UhLtt ULhhi*@|L?t Lu L|T| @?_ ? @|L? ? L_i* 2 ,^*Mh4 Ai _@|@ t tL? uLh S TihL_tc U ULhhitTL?_t |L 2e ^@h|iht Lu N5 _@|@ u i@U 4L_i* TihL_ t ?|ihThi|i_ @t )i@h Ai t@Tit Lu |i @|L @?_ UhLttULhhi*@|L?t ULhhitTL?_ hi4@h!@M*) i** | |i ULhhi*@|L? ? |i _@|@ |T| @?_ ? @|L? @hi Tihtt|i?| Ai) @hi TLt|i*) ULhhi*@|i_ uLh tLh| *@}t @?_ ?i}@|i*) uLh *L?}ih *@}t |T| t @ TLt|i *i@_?} ?_U@|Lh uLh ? @|L? @?_c 4Lhi 4TLh|@?|*)c ? @|L? tLU!t @hi @ *i@_?} ?_U@|Lh uLh _iUhi@t?} 2e.
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(61) Output. Inflation 1,2. 1,2. 1. 1. 0,8. 0,8. 0,6. 0,6. 0,4. 0,4. 0,2. 0,2. 0. 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 1. 16. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. -0,2. -0,2. -0,4. -0,4. -0,6. -0,6. -0,8. -0,8. Output. Inflation. 1,2. 1,2. 1. 1. 0,8. 0,8. 0,6. 0,6. 0,4. 0,4. 0,2. 0,2. 0. 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 1. -0,2. -0,2. -0,4. -0,4. -0,6. -0,6. -0,8. -0,8. -1. -1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 6}hi HG W4T*ti +itTL?tit ? L_i* 2 ,^*Mh4 ? |i ht| TihL_ @u|ih |i tLU! @t @MLi i^*Mh4c ? @|L? i TiU |@|L?t ?L TU! Tc hit*|?} ? @__|L?@* ? @|L? At @__|L?@* ? @|L? _i@*@|it _i4@?_ Mi*L |t i^*Mh4 @*i @?_ U@tit @ _i 4@?_ tLh|u@** @?_ @? ? @|L? _iUhi@ti ? |i uL**L?} TihL_t ?|* |i tLU! t*L*) u@_it L| Ai ht| hL Lu }hi H tLt |i 4T*ti hitTL?tit Lu L|T| @?_ ? @|L? |@| uL**L @ _i4@?_ tLU! |@| |t |i iUL?L4) ? TihL_ Ai 4T*ti hitTL?tit }h@TU@**) **t|h@|i |i 4iU@?t4 _itUhMi_ @MLiG |i ?|@**) t*}}t ThUi hitTL?ti ? TihL_ 2 U@tit L|T| |L hi4@? @MLi i^*Mh4 ? |i TihL_ @u|ih |i tLU! `i? ? @|L? i TiU|@|L?t TU! T ? TihL_
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(66) 0,75. 0,73. 0,71. alpha. 0,69. 0,67. 0,65. 0,63. 0,61 0. 0,025. 0,05. 0,075. 0,1. 0,125. 0,15. 0,175. 0,2. 0,225. sigma. 6}hi bG L_i* 2 ,^*Mh@ @| |i O} W? @|L? 5|i@_) 5|@|i Ai 4L_i* t |i? _itUhMi_ M) |L T@h@4i|ihtc |i 4@h}?@* _t|*|) Lu *@MLh k @?_ |i _i}hii Lu 4TihuiU| UL4Ti||L? j Nt?} UL4T|@|L?@* 4i|L_tc @ }h_ ti@hU @t 4@_i |L UiU! uLh |i i t|i?Ui Lu L_i* 2 i^*Mh@ @UhLtt |i hi*i@?| Ekc j tT@Ui22 c 2
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(75)
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