The US Trade Deficit, the Decline of the WTO and the Rise of Regionalism

Testo completo

(1)EUI Working Papers ECO 2007/17. The US Trade Deficit, the Decline of the WTO and the Rise of Regionalism. Itai Agur.

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(3) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. The US Trade Deficit, the Decline of the WTO and the Rise of Regionalism ITAI AGUR. EUI Working Paper ECO 2007/17.

(4) This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper or other series, the year, and the publisher. The author(s)/editor(s) should inform the Economics Department of the EUI if the paper is to be published elsewhere, and should also assume responsibility for any consequent obligation(s). ISSN 1725-6704. © 2007 Itai Agur Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy http://www.eui.eu/ http://cadmus.eui.eu/.

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(97) A95BG H<5H 9J9B IB89F 65@5B798 HF589 ' 5 7CIBHFM =G 69HH9F CU 69=B; H<9 =BG=89F HC H<9 CB@M *, H<5B 69=B; =B 5 %, &CH=79 H<5H DFCD9FH=9G (

(98) ( 8C BCH 9L7@I89 H<=G DCGG=6=@=HM !BHI=H=J9@M *, =BG=89FG 75B ;5=B F9BHG 6M =ADFCJ=B; 957< CH<9FQG H9FAGC:HF589 5H H<9 CIHG=89FQG 9LD9BG9 ,<9 %, 89GHFCMG GI7< F9BHG (FCDCG=H=CB G<CKG H<5H @=?9 =B H<9 CB9G<CH ;5A9 HF589 =A65@5B79G 75B HF=;;9F F9;=CB5@ =GA /<9B H<5H F9;=CB5@=GA =G DF=A5F=@M 8F=J9B 6M H<9 69B9OHG D5FHB9FG =ADCG9 CB 957< CH<9F F5H<9F H<5B H<9=F ;5=BG :FCA 9L7@I8=B; CH<9FG =H 5@K5MG :C@@CKG H<9 9LD5B8=B; D5H< /9 75@@

(99)

(100).

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(102)

(103) :CF 957< 7CIBHFM D5=F "# B8. 6M H<=G =AD@=9G

(104)

(105) ,<IG H<9 8=U9F9B79 K=H< G97H=CB

(106) =G H<9 DF9G9B79 C: G<C7?G ,<9G9 G<C7?G 5F9 F95@=N98 5H H<9 69;=BB=B; C: 957< D9F=C8 DF=CF HC H<9 B9;CH=5H=CBG 89D=7H98 =B =;IF9 +<C7?G <5J9 N9FC A95B 5B8 5F9 IB7CFF9@5H98 57FCGG 8=U9F9BH 7CIBHFM D5=FG 5B8 CJ9F H=A9 % 5B8 =J9B G<C7?G D9FG=GH CJ9F H=A9 IH 6M H<9 DFC79GG =G A95B F9J9FH=B; =B H<9 @CB; FIB K<9F9 H<9 A95B =G 65@5B798 6=@5H9F5@ HF589 /9 GC@J9 H<9 ;5A9 6M G<CK=B; H<5H B9=H<9F 7CAD@9H9 BCB7CCD9F5H=CB BCF 5 G=B;@9 *, BCF HKC *,G 75B 69 GIGH5=B98 :CF9J9F ,<9F9:CF9 KCF@8 :F99 HF589 =G H<9 IB=EI9 @CB; FIB 9EI=@=6F=IA DFCC: =B 5DD9B8=L.

(107) .

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(110) CK9J9F H<9 7CAA=HA9BH GHF5B8 7CBG=89FG H<5H =B F95@=HM 89J=5H=CB :FCA HF589 5;F99 A9BHG 75B ;=J9 CB@M 5 J9FM G<CFH@=J98 69B9OH HC H<9 89:97HCF =: 5BM 9B9F5@@M HF589 A95GIF9G 5F9 EI=7?@M C6G9FJ56@9 HC CH<9F 7CIBHF=9G !B :57H =B CIF ;5A9 CB9 D9F=C8 9EI5@G CB9 AI@H= @5H9F5@ B9;CH=5H=CB FCIB8 +I7< FCIB8G 75B 69 ACF9 H<5B 5 897589 5D5FH 9J=5H=CB DFCOH KCI@8 7CBGH=HIH9 CB@M 5 :F57H=CB C: H<9 D9F=C8 =B7CA9 H<9F9:CF9 ,<9 CH<9F GHF5B8 H5?9G H<9 ,<9 OFGH GHF5B8 =B7@I89G FCGGA5B 5B8 9@DA5B

(111) $9JM

(112) IF6=8;9 9H 5@

(113) #F=G<B5

(114) 5;K9@@ 5B8 +H5=;9F

(115) %7$5F9B %5;;= 5B8 *C8F=;I9N@5F9

(116) 5B8 'FB9@5G ,<9 @5HH9F =B7@I89G *=9NA5B

(117)

(118) 5;K9@@ 5B8 +H5=;9F

(119) 5

(120) 6 F9IB8 6 CB8 9H 5@

(121) CB7CB= 5B8 (9FFCB= 5B8 +5;;= .

(122) .

(123) J=9K H<5H 5G H<9F9 =G BC =BGH=HIH=CB H<5H DIB=G<9G 89:97HCFG 5;F99A9BHG AIGH B979GG5F=@M 69 G9@:9B:CF7=B; /=H<CIH 7CAA=HA9BH 5 CB9G<CH ;5A9 <5G H<9 G5A9 CIH7CA9 5G 5 CB9 D9F=C8 (F=GCB9FQG =@9AA5 ;5A9 IFH<9FACF9 =B 5 8MB5A=7 ;5A9 7CCD9F5H=J9 CIH7CA9G 5F9 CB@M GIGH5=B56@9 :CF GIT7=9BH@M <=;< 8=G7CIBH F5H9G *=9NA5B

(124)

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(126) .

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(128) G<CKG H<5H H<9 *, J5F=56@9 8C9G BCH. 9L<=6=H 8=G7F9H9 >IADG !H ;FCKG GACCH<@M :FCA HC

(129) /9 H<IG HF95H =H 5G 5 7CBH=BICIG J5F=56@9 ,<9 G97CB8 J5F=56@9 =G H<9 -+ HF589 65@5B79 CJ9F ( H5?9B :FCA !%!+ /9 :C7IG CB H<9 @5GH H<=FHM M95FG 5G H<9 F=G9 C: H<9 -+ HF589 89O7=H =G 5 :5=F@M F979BH D<9BCA9BCB B8 GC @CB; 5G =A65@5B79G F9A5=B GA5@@ 9BCI;< H<5H BC H<F9G<C@8G 5F9 7FCGG98 CIF H<9CFM DF98=7HG BC F9@5H=CBG<=D 69HK99B J5F=5H=CB =B =A65@5B79G 5B8 =B F9;=CB5@=GA (FCDCG=H=CB

(130) CK9J9F :CF FC6IGHB9GG K9 5@GC F9DCFH F9GI@HG :CF H<9 @CB;9GH 5HH5=B56@9 G5AD@9

(131) !ADCFH5BH@M 6CH< J5F=56@9G 5F9 BCBGH5H=CB5FM 8>IGH98 =7?9MI@@9F H9GHG =B8=75H9 H<5H H<9 HF589 65@5B79 =G !

(132) K<=@9 H<9 BIA69F C: *,G =G ! ,<=G =G HFI9 :CF 6CH< H<9 D5GH H<=FHM M95FG 5B8 H<9 9BH=F9

(133) G5AD@9 $VIH?9DC<@ D 5B8 $VIH?9DC<@ 5B8 *9=A9FG

(134) 5F;I9 H<5H F5B;9F75IG5@=HM 65G98 CB 5B CF8=B5FM .* =G BCH GDIF=CIG K<9B HKC !

(135) J5F=56@9G 5F9 7C=BH9;F5H98 'IF OFGH GH9DG H<9F9:CF9 5F9 HC A5?9 6CH< J5F=56@9G C: H<9 G5A9 CF89F C: =BH9;F5H=CB 5B8 GI6G9EI9BH@M H9GH :CF 7C=BH9;F5H=CB /9 H5?9 H<9 OFGH 8=U9F9B79G C: H<9 *, J5F=56@9 :FCA K<=7< 5B !

(136) J5F=56@9 F9DF9G9BH=B; *, ;FCKH< =G C6H5=B98 "C<5BG9B ,F579 H9GH =B8=75H9G H<5H H<9 HKC J5F=56@9G =B8998 <5J9 7C=BH9;F5H=CB F5B?

(137) ,<=G =G HFI9 :CF @5; @9B;H<G GI;;9GH98 6M 6CH< ! 5B8 +7<K5FN 7F=H9F=5 5B8 =G FC6IGH HC H<9 =B7@IG=CB C: 5 89H9FA=B=GH=7 HF9B8 %CF9CJ9F H<=G <C@8G :CF 6CH< H<9 D5GH H<=FHM M95FG 5B8 H<9

(138) G5AD@9 /9 75B H<IG DFC7998 =B H<9 K5M 89G7F=698 6M $VIH?9DC<@ 5B8 $VIH?9DC<@ 5B8 *9=A9FG

(139) ,<9 .* H5?9G H<9 :CFA ) ) ( ) ) (

(140) .

(141) .

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(143) %. . -G=B; 5 /5@8 H9GH GH5H=GH=7 H<=G BI@@ <MDCH<9G=G =G H9GH98 5;5=BGH H<9 5@H9FB5H=J9 H<5H 5H @95GH CB9 C: H<9 =G BCBN9FC CF H<9 D5GH H<=FHM M95FG 5@@CK=B; ID HC

(144) @5;G 6CH< H<9 ! 5B8 +7<K5FN 7F=H9F=5 G9@97H

(145) @5;G @CB; @5; @9B;H< =G =B @=B9 K=H< H<9CF9H=75@ 9LD97H5H=CBG AI7< H=A9 75B ;C 69HK99B 5 HF58965@5B79 =B8I798 DC@=7M G<=:H 5B8 7CAD@9H=CB C: *, B9;CH=5H=CBG. CK9J9F :CF

(146) . @5;G H<9F9 5F9 =BGIT7=9BH C6G9FJ5H=CBG @9:H HC 7CB8I7H 5 F5B;9F75IG5@=HM H9GH /9 H<9B 5@@CK ID HC @5;G 5B8 6CH< A95GIF9G G9@97H @5;G /9 BCK OB8 H<5H F5B;9F75IG5@=HM FIBG CB@M =B H<9 8=F97H=CB DF98=7H98 6M H<9 AC89@ F5B;9FBCB75IG5@=HM :FCA H<9 HF589 65@5B79 HC *, ;FCKH< =G F9>97H98 5H G=;B=O75B79 K=H< 5 DJ5@I9 C: F5B;9FBCB75IG5@=HM =B H<9 CDDCG=H9 8=F97H=CB =G BCH F9>97H98 H<9 DJ5@I9 69=B; . CF H<9 9BH=F9

(147) G5AD@9 <CK9J9F 6CH< ! 5B8 +7<K5FN 7F=H9F=5 G9@97H CB@M CB9 @5; F5B;9FBCB75IG5@=HM :FCA H<9 HF589 65@5B79 HC *, ;FCKH< =G F9>97H98 K=H< 5 DJ5@I9 C: . CK9J9F F5B;9FBCB75IG5@=HM =B H<9 CDDCG=H9 8=F97H=CB =G 5@GC F9>97H98 DJ5@I9

(148) . ,C ;=J9 5 F=7<9F EI5BH=H5H=J9 D=7HIF9 K9 5@GC D9F:CFA 5 J5F=5B79 897CADCG=H=CB J5F=5B79 897CADCG=H=CB G<CKG :CF 8=U9F9BH H=A9 <CF=NCBG <CK AI7< C: H<9 J5F=5H=CB =B CB9 J5F=56@9 =G 9LD@5=B98 6M H<9 J5F=5H=CB =B H<9 CH<9F ,<=G =G 5 GH5B85F8 A9H<C8C@C;M :CF =BH9FDF9H=B; .*G $VIH?9DC<@ =;IF9 DCFHF5MG H<9 F9GI@HG :CF H<9 D5GH H<=FHM M95FG !B =;IF9 ACJ9A9BHG =B H<9 -+ HF589 65@5B79 9LD@5=B 5G AI7< 5G C: H<9 J5F=5H=CB =B *, ;FCKH< K=H<=B 5 M95F <CF=NCB CF H<9 9BH=F9

(149) G5AD@9 <CK9J9F H<=G =G CB@M

(150)

(151) ,<IG H<9 F9@5H=CBG<=D 69HK99B H<9 HKC J5F=56@9G G99AG HC <5J9 :IB85A9BH5@@M 7<5B;98 :FCA H<9 OFGH HC H<9 G97CB8 <5@: C: H<9

(152) G5AD@9 ;5=B H<=G A5?9G G9BG9 K<9B J=9K98 :FCA CIF H<9CFM -BH=@ H<F9G<C@8G 5F9 7FCGG98 H<9F9 =G BC F9@5H=CBG<=D 69HK99B HF589 =A65@5B79G 5B8 F9;=CB5@=GA (FCDCG=H=CB

(153)

(154) .

(155) =;IF9 *, FCKH< .5F=5B79 97CADCG=H=CB

(156) 100. % of RTA growth explained by US trade balance. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Number of years ahead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

(157) 5F;I9 H<5H @5F;9F 65FF=9FG HC *, :CFA5H=CB 7CI@8 5=8 KCF@8 HF589 @=69F5@=N5H=CB H<FCI;< H<9 AI@H= @5H9F5@ DFC79GG 'IF H<9CFM =G =B 5;F99A9BH K=H< H<=G GH5H9A9BH CB@M K<9B HF589 =A65@5B79G 5F9 BCH HCC @5F;9 'H<9FK=G9 BC HF589 7CCD9F5H=CB H5?9G D@579 5H 5@@ =B H<9 56G9B79 C: F9;=CB5@=GA.

(158) .

(159) . %##&. %## # %#$#&'#" DD@M=B; 657?K5F8 =B8I7H=CB K9 7CBG=89F OFGH H<9 CIH7CA9 C: *, B9;CH=5H=CBG 5B8 H<9B H<5H C: %, B9;CH=5H=CBG 9@CK =G 7CIBHFM QG D5MCU A5HF=L 8IF=B; *, B9;CH=5H=CBG QG 57H=CBG *9>97H 6CH< 779DH CB@M 779DH CB@M 779DH 6CH<. 'H<9F D@5M9FGQ 57H=CBG

(160)

(161)

(162)

(163)

(164)

(165)

(166)

(167)

(168).

(169)

(170).

(171)

(172)

(173) .

(174)

(175)

(176).

(177)

(178)

(179).

(180)

(181). K<9F9 =H =G =AD@=7=H H<5H K<9B9J9F 5779DHG CF CF 5779DH =H HCC ,<=G :C@@CKG :FCA (

(182) 5B8 ( /<=@9 6M =B=H=5@ =A65@5B79G

(183)

(184) 5B8 :FCA (

(185)

(186) 5B8

(187)

(188) 7CIBHFM =G =B 6=@5H9F5@ 89O7=H 5;5=BGH 5B8 F9;5F8@9GG C: H<9 57H=CBG C: 5B8 5;5=BGH 957< CH<9F ,<IG =FF9GD97H=J9 C: K<9H<9F

(189) CF

(190)

(191) H<9 *,G H<5H 7CIBHFM 5779DHG 5F9 5@K5MG G=;B98 &CK 7CBG=89F H<9 75G9 K<9B

(192)

(193) 5B8

(194)

(195) <C@8 DC=BH

(196) =B (FCDCG=H=CB

(197) ( =B 7CB>IB7H=CB K=H<

(198)

(199) ;=J9G.

(200)

(201)

(202)

(203)

(204)

(205) K<=7< =B HIFB =AD@=9G H<5H

(206)

(207)

(208)

(209)

(210)

(211) $=?9K=G9 ( HC;9H<9F K=H<

(212)

(213) ;=J9G

(214)

(215)

(216)

(217)

(218) 9B79 K<9B 5B8 5779DH H<9B 57<=9J9G A5L= AIA K9@:5F9 :CF 7CIBHFM 5B8 H<9 57H=CB 779DH 6CH< =G CDH=A5@ CK9J9F 6M ( H<9 56CJ9 K9@:5F9 F5B?=B;G 8=F97H@M =AD@M

(219)

(220)

(221)

(222)

(223)

(224)

(225)

(226)

(227) .

(228)

(229)

(230)

(231) ,<9F9:CF9 779DH 6CH< =G QG 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;M = 9 CDH=A5@ F9;5F8@9GG C: K<9H<9F 5B8 5779DH %CF9CJ9F K<9B9J9F =G K=@@=B; HC 5779DH H<9B 6M

(232)

(233) =G 5@GC K=@@=B; HC 5779DH 5G =G 6M ( 9B79 8IF=B; *, B9;CH=5H=CBG 5@@ *,G 5F9 5779DH98 ,<9B 8IF=B; H<9 DF9798=B; %, B9;CH=5H=CBG 7CIBHF=9G :579 H<9 7<C=79 69HK99B =: 5@@ 5779DH H<9 %, 5B8 =: H<9 %, =G F9>97H98 +=B79 6CH< =AD@M KCF@8 :F99 HF589

(234)

(235)

(236)

(237) " 5B8 6M H<9 H=96F95?=B; 5GGIADH=CB H<9 %, =G 5779DH98 6M 5@@ ,<=G DFCJ9G DC=BH

(238) =B (FCDCG=H=CB

(239) &9LH 7CBG=89F H<9 75G9 H<5H :CF 5@@ " K=H< =H <C@8G H<5H DC=BH =B (FCDCG=H=CB

(240) IF=B; *, B9;CH=5H=CBG :CF 957< 7CIBHFM D5=F H<9F9 =G CB9 7CIBHFM " K=H< H<5H F9>97HG H<9 *, F9;5F8@9GG C: CH<9F 7CIBHF=9GQ 57H=CBG 9B79 *, B9;CH=5H=CBG <5J9 5G H<9 CIH7CA9 H H<9 DF9798=B; %, B9;CH=5H=CBG 7CIBHF=9G H<IG 7<CCG9 69HK99B 5B8 9F9 7CIBHFM 79FH5=B@M F9>97HG %, ,<=G :C@@CKG :FCA H<9 :57H H<5H =AD@=9G

(241)

(242)

(243)

(244) 5B8 6M (

(245)

(246)

(247)

(248)

(249)

(250)

(251) GC H<5H 6M

(252)

(253)

(254)

(255) K9 <5J9

(256)

(257) 5B8 7CIBHFM F9>97HG H<9 %, ,<IG H<9 CIH7CA9 C: HF589 B9;CH=5H=CBG =G K<=7< DFCJ9G DC=BH =B (FCDCG=H=CB

(258) =B5@@M K<9B HF589 65@5B79G 8C BCH G5H=G:M H<9 7CB8=H=CBG =B 9=H<9F DC=BH

(259) CF DC=BH C: (FCDCG=H=CB

(260) H<9B BCH 5@@ *,G 5F9 5779DH98 BCF 5F9 5@@ *,G F9>97H98 ,<9 CIH7CA9 =G 9=H<9F CF CF M

(261)

(262) 5B8

(263)

(264) =: 5BM *, =G F9>97H98 H<9B =G F9>97H98 6M 7CIBHFM /<9B =G F9>97H98 =H <C@8G H<5H

(265)

(266)

(267)

(268)

(269)

(270) 5B8 6M (

(271)

(272)

(273)

(274)

(275) .

(276) GC H<5H F9;5F8@9GG C: K<9H<9F 5B8 G=;B 57<=9J9G <=;<9F K9@:5F9 K=H<CIH H<9 %, ,<IG K<9B F9>97HG 5BM *, =H 5@GC F9>97HG H<9 %, !H F9A5=BG HC G<CK H<5H 5@@ H<F99 F9;=CB5@=GH 9EI=@=6F=5 5B8 9L=GH ,<F99 9L5AD@9G GIT79 ,5?9

(277)

(278)

(279) 5B8

(280)

(281) M (

(282)

(283) . 9B79 QG 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;M =G 779DH CB@M +=A=@5F@M =G 5@K5MG 69GH CU F9>97H=B; ,<IG 6M

(284) K9 <5J9 H<5H F9GI@HG /<9B =BGH958

(285)

(286)

(287) 5B8

(288) H<9B QG 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;M =G *9>97H 6CH< 5B8 ;=J9B QG F9GDCBG9 5779DHG 5G 8C9G ,<9F9:CF9 F9GI@HG /<9B

(289)

(290)

(291)

(292) 5B8

(293)

(294) H<9B 6M (

(295)

(296) . 5B8 QG 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;M =G 779DH 6CH< =J9B H<=G 57H=CB QG 69GH F9GDCBG9 =G 779DH CB@M @958=B; HC %## # %#$#&'#" M H<9 (FCC: C: (FCDCG=H=CB

(297) K<9B9J9F 7CIBHFM 5779DHG 5B 5;F99A9BH H<9B GC 8C CH<9F 7CIBHF=9G IFH<9FACF9 6M ( K<9B

(298)

(299)

(300)

(301) H<9B

(302)

(303)

(304)

(305)

(306)

(307) 5B8 H<9F9:CF9 =B H<9 GH5B85F8 5A9 =H =G H<9 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;M :CF HC F9>97H H<9 %, 8IF =B; AI@H=@5H9F5@ B9;CH=5H=CBG IH =B H<9 &C*9;=CB5@=GA 5A9 =G @9:H K=H<

(308)

(309) 5B8 5779DHG H<9 %, ,<=G DFCJ9G DC=BH

(310) +=A=@5F@M 6M (

(311)

(312)

(313)

(314)

(315)

(316) <C@8G :CF H<9 G9HH=B; =B DC=BH 9B79 =B H<9 &C*9;=CB5@=GA 5A9 F9>97HG H<9 %, @958=B; HC IH =B H<9 GH5B85F8 5A9 F9>97HG H<9 %, K<=@9 D@5M=B; 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;M 779DH 8IF=B; *, B9;CH=5H=CBG 9B79 =B H<9 GH5B85F8 5A9 8C9G BCH 7CA9 56CIH ,<=G DFCJ9G DC=BH %## # %#$#&'#" . /9 OFGH DFCJ9 H<9 GH5H9A9BH =B DC=BH

(317) 5B8 GI6G9EI9BH@M H<9 .

(318) GH5H9A9BH =B DC=BH =J9B DC=BHG

(319) 5B8 5BM =B=H=5@ 7CB8=H=CBG

(320)

(321)

(322)

(323)

(324)

(325)

(326) @958 HC CB9 C: H<9 H<F99 9EI=@=6F=IA D5H<G 89G7F=698 =B H<9 GH5H9A9BH C: (FCDCG=H=CB ,<9F9:CF9 H<9G9 9EI=@=6F=IA D5H<G 5F9 H<9 CB@M CB9G H<5H 9L=GH 5B8 (FCDCG=H=CB =G DFCJ9B /9 DFCJ9 DC=BH

(327) 6M G<CK=B; H<5H K<9B

(328)

(329)

(330)

(331)

(332) H<9B 5 :CF ' KCF@8 :F99 HF589 %, 5@K5MG C6H5=BG 6 =B D9F=C8

(333) H<9 %, =G G=;B98 CB@M K<9B =A65@5B79G 5F9 5G =B DC=BH

(334) C: (FCDCG=H=CB

(335) =J9B 5 5B8 6 :CF GA5@@ 9BCI;< OFGH D9F=C8 =A65@5B79G H<9 %, <C@8G :FCA D9F=C8

(336) CBK5F8G CC8 (5H< 5B8 =: =A65@5B79G 5F9 @5F;9F H<9B F9;=CB5@=GA 7CBJ9F;9G HC KCF@8 :F99 HF589 CJ9F H=A9 -;@M (5H< CBG=89F 5 M 5GGIADH=CB " # 5B8 65@5B798 HF589 C6H5=BG :CF ' =J9B ( 5B8

(337)

(338)

(339)

(340)

(341) 7CIBHFM " <5G H<9 :C@@CK=B; K9@:5F9 F5B?=B; CJ9F .

(342)

(343)

(344) . . . .

(345)

(346)

(347)

(348)

(349)

(350)

(351)

(352)

(353)

(354) . K<9F9 GH5B8G :CF H<9 GHFI7HIF9 H<5H =B7@I89G H<9 HKC *,G HC K<=7< 7CIBHFM " 75B 69 D5FH 6IH 9L7@I89G %CF9CJ9F 6M (

(355) 5B8 (.

(356)

(357)

(358)

(359)

(360) =J9B H<=G F5B?=B; 8IF=B; *, B9;CH=5H=CBG 7CIBHFM " 5779DHG 5BM *, H<5H =H <58 BCH DF9J= CIG@M G=;B98 F9;5F8@9GG C: K<9H<9F =G =B :CF79 G H<=G <C@8G HFI9 :CF 5@@ 7CIBHF=9G KCF@8 :F99 HF589 5@K5MG C6H5=BG :CF ' H H<9 D9F=C8 K<9B =G ?BCKB HC 69 H<9 CIH7CA9 C: *, B9;CH=5H=CBG H<9 %, =G 5779DH98 5H H<9 DF9798=B; %, B9;CH=5H=CBG 6M H<9 H=96F95?=B; 5GGIADH=CB &CK 7CBG=89F 6 /<9B OFGH D9F=C8 =A65@5B79G G5H=G:M H<9 7CB8=H=CBG =B DC=BH

(361) C: (FCDC G=H=CB

(362) H<9B 6M H<9 (FCC: C: (FCDCG=H=CB

(363) 5779DH=B; H<9 %, =G H<9 69GH F9GDCBG9 J=9K98 :FCA =BGH5BH5B9CIG K9@:5F9 IH 5@@ GI6G9EI9BH HF589 =A65@5B79G 5F9 GA5@@9F H<5B =B D9F=C8

(364) . 6M

(365)

(366) ,<9F9:CF9 6M (

(367) 5B8 ( =: %, =G CDH=A5@ =B D9F=C8

(368) =H =G CDH=A5@ =B 9J9FM GI6G9EI9BH D9F=C8 HCC /<9B =BGH958 OFGH D9F=C8 =A65@5B79G 8C BCH G5H=G:M H<9G9 7CB8=H=CBG 7CIBHFM =G 69GH CU F9>97H=B; 5H @95GH (FCC: C: (FCDCG=H=CB

(369) %CF9CJ9F @CG9G BC :IHIF9 K9@ :5F9 6M 8C=B; GC M ( =G 5@K5MG 69GH CU 5779DH=B; H<9 *, K=H< 9B79 K<9B. 9J9F 6M

(370)

(371) 5 DC=BH =B H=A9 5FF=J9G K<9B

(372)

(373)

(374)

(375) 7CIBHFM 75B G=;B H<9 *, 5=B=B; =BGH5BH5B9CIG@M 6IH @CG=B; BC K9@:5F9 =B H<9 :IHIF9 7CIBHFM F9>97HG H<9 %, =B D9F=C8

(376) ,<=G 7CAD@9H9G H<9 DFCC: C: DC=BH 6 &9LH K9 DFCJ9 DC=BH M ( 5B8

(377)

(378)

(379)

(380)

(381) K9 5;5=B

(382).

(383) C6H5=B 7CIBHFM "QG K9@:5F9 F5B?=B; CJ9F :CF ' .

(384)

(385)

(386) . . . . .

(387)

(388)

(389)

(390)

(391)

(392)

(393)

(394)

(395)

(396) . CBG=89F H<9 75G9 H<5H H<9F9 =G CB@M CB9 *, CF =BGH5B79 H5?9 .=9K98 :FCA =BGH5BH5B9CIG K9@:5F9 779DH 5B8 779DH 5F9 H<9 8CA=B5BH GHF5H9;=9G :CF 5B8 F9GD97H=J9@M

(397)

(398)

(399)

(400)

(401)

(402)

(403) 5B8

(404)

(405)

(406)

(407)

(408)

(409)

(410)

(411)

(412) 5B8 @=?9K=G9 :CF ,<IG 5779DH =B; 5@@ *,G 5B8 H<9F9:CF9 %, 5H H<9 DF9798=B; %, B9;CH=5H=CBG =G 5 CB9G<CH &5G< EI=@=6F=IA CK9J9F 6CH< 5B8 5F9 KCFG9 CU IB89F H<5B IB89F ,<9F9:CF9 H<9M 7CI@8 D@5M 5 ,=H:CF,5H GHF5H9;M K<9F96M B9=H<9F G=;BG H<9 *, K=H< 5G @CB; 5G H<9 CH<9F 8C9G BCH 8C GC 9=H<9F !: CB9 7CIBHFM G=;BG H<9 *, K=H< H<9B H<9 B9LH D9F=C8 H<9 CH<9F 7CIBHFM G=;BG =H HCC 9B79 =G GIGH5=B56@9 5G @CB; 5G H<9 =BGH5BH5B9CIG ;5=BG :FCA G=;B=B; H<9 *, K=H< ;=J9B H<5H H<9 CH<9F 8C9G BCH 5F9 GA5@@9F H<5B H<9 GI6G9EI9BH @CGG9G :FCA ACJ=B; HC KCF@8 :F99 HF589.

(413)

(414)

(415) . . . . . .

(416)

(417)

(418)

(419)

(420)

(421)

(422)

(423) . ,<IG H<9F9 =G GCA9

(424) GI7< H<5H :CF H<9 58 (5H< =G GIGH5=B56@9 ': 7CIFG9 9J9B :CF H<=G =G BCH H<9 CB@M 9EI=@=6F=IA !: CB9 CF 6CH< D@5M9FG 8C BCH :C@@CK 5 ,=H:CF,5H GHF5H9;M H<9 %, =G G=;B98 ,<=G DFCJ9G DC=BH %## # %#$#&'#" /9 OFGH DFCJ9 H<9 GH5H9A9BH H<5H KCF@8 :F99 HF589 =G H<9 IB=EI9 @CB; FIB 9EI=@=6F=IA /9 8C H<=G 6M G<CK=B; H<5H H<9 5@H9FB5H=J9 GHFI7HIF9G 5F9 BCH GIGH5=B56@9 :CF9J9F

(425) CAD@9H9 BCB7CCD9F5H=CB 'B9 *, ,KC *,G CBG=89F :CF 5BM. 7CIBHFM D5=F "# ' . OFGH M 5B8 =BOB=H9 D9F=C8G ,<9B 6M (

(426) 5B8 (

(427)

(428)

(429)

(430)

(431)

(432)

(433)

(434)

(435)

(436) 5B8 @=?9K=G9 6M K9 <5J9 H<5H

(437)

(438)

(439)

(440)

(441) ' ' ,<9F9 :CF9 =G AIHI5@@M 5779DH98 5B8 &9LH 7CBG=89F !B D5FH=7I@5F 75@@ "QG *, D5FHB9F # 5B8 H<9 CIHG=89F # . /9 B998 HC G<CK H<5H H<9F9 9L=GH

(442)

(443) :CF K<=7< " 5B8 # 5F9 6CH< K=@@=B; HC 5779DH

(444) !: GI7< F95@=N5H=CBG 9L=GH H<9B 6M =BOB=H9 D9F=C8G 5B8 G<C7?G 9J9FM D9F=C8 H<9M K=@@ 5H GCA9 DC=BH 69 F95@=N98. =FGH K9 G<CK H<5H

(445)

(446) :CF K<=7< 7CIBHFM " 5779DHG

(447) M (

(448) .

(449) 5B8 (

(450)

(451)

(452) .

(453)

(454). .

(455) . .

(456)

(457) .

(458)

(459) %CF9CJ9F 6M (

(460) .

(461) .

(462)

(463)

(464) . . . .

(465)

(466) . K<=7< =AD@=9G H<5H 5H 5 ;=J9B DC=BH =B H=A9 '

(467) .

(468)

(469)

(470) . . . . . .

(471)

(472)

(473)

(474)

(475)

(476) . +C H<5H H<9 9LD97H98 ;5=B :FCA 5B 5;F99A9BH =G ACBCHCB=75@@M =B7F95G=B; =B H<9 HF589 GIFD@IG .

(477)

(478)

(479)

(480)

(481)

(482) 9B79

(483)

(484)

(485) &9LH K9 6F=B; =B 7CIBHFM # QG 897=G=CB ( 5B8 ( =AD@M H<5H 5 *, 5@K5MG F5=G9G H<9 >C=BH K9@:5F9 C: HKC 7CIBHF=9G M ( H<9F9 5F9 ;5=BG :FCA HF589 CH<9FK=G9 7CIBHFM " KCI@8 F9>97H 5 *, :CF 5BM /<=@9 6M ( H<CG9 ;5=BG 8C BCH 577FI9 HC H<9 CIHG=89F ,<IG

(486)

(487)