The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules
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(2) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules MICHAEL J. ARTIS and LUCA ONORANTE. EUI Working Paper ECO No. 2006/14.
(3) This text may be downloaded freely only for personal academic purposes. Any reproductions, whether in hard copies or electronically, require the consent of the author. If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper, or other series, the year and the publisher. ISSN 1725-6704. © 2006 Michael J. Artis and Luca Onorante Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50016 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy http://www.iue.it/ http://cadmus.iue.it/dspace/index.jsp.
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(158) .
(159) 9:896C 5:D4:A=:?6 E92E E96 &24E :>A@D65 @? 2 ?2EFC2==J AC@4J4=:42= LD42= A@=:4J G6? 7@C E96D6 4@F?EC:6D 9@H6G6C E96 6T64E :D =:>:E65 A@DD:3=6 :?E6CAC6E2E:@? @7 E9:D C6DF=E 4@F=5 36 E92E 7@C >2?J 4@F?EC:6D E96 )E23:=:EJ 2?5 C@HE9 &24E 92D 366? =:EE=6 >@C6 E92? E96 @S4:2=:K2E:@? @? A2A6C @7 A@=:4:6D H9:49 H6C6 2=C625J :? A=246 *9:D 4@?4=FD:@? :D DFAA@CE65 3J 4@>A2C:?8 E96 PD8AQ 4@=F>? H:E9 E96 7@= =@H:?8 4@=F>?D :? 6249 8C2A9 @=F>? PK6C@Q 4@CC6DA@?5:?8 E@ E96 ?6H 8C@HE9 E9C6D9@=5 7@C 2AA=J:?8 E96 6I46AE:@?2= 4:C4F>DE2?46D 4=2FD6 :D 2E =62DE
(160) =@H6C E92? E96 P) &Q 4@=F>? :? 6=8:F> )A2:? 2?5 E96 $6E96C=2?5D 2?5 2E =62DE
(161) 9:896C :? C2?46 @?=J =@?86C E:>6 DA2? 8:G6? E@ 4@CC64E 2 D:EF2 E:@? @7 6I46DD:G6 56L4:E D66>D E@ >@56C2E6=J C65F46 E96 G2C:23:=:EJ @7 E96 4J4=6 :? D6G6C2= 4@F?EC:6D ?2>6=J 6=8:F> 6C>2?J C6646 C2?46 C6=2?5 2?5 E96 $6E96C=2?5D *9:D 492?86 :? E96 &24E D66>D 2D 2 >2EE6C @7 724E E@ :>AC@G6 64@?@>:4 DE23:=:K2E:@? 3J 2G@:5:?8 2? :>>65:2E6 4@CC64E:@? @7 E96 56L4:E 36=@H E96 %? E96 @E96C 92?5 E96 AC@8C6DD:G6 4@CC64E:@? @7 6I46DD:G6 56L4:E 9:89 =:89E65 :? 4@=F>? PAC@8CQ 5@6D ?@E D66> E@ 92G6 C6=6G2?E 6T64ED *9:D >2J 36 5F6 E@ E96 724E E92E 6G6? :? @FC 7C66 >@56=D E96 4@F?EC:6D 2C6 ?6G6C H:==:?8 E@ 8@ 7C@> @?6 J62C E@ E96 @E96C E@ DF49 9:89 56L4:ED E92E 2? :?DE2?E2?6@FD 4@CC64E:@? :D >F49 5:T6C6?E 7C@> 2 AC@8C6DD:G6 @?6 :?2==J E96 :?E6C24E:@? @7 E96 5:T6C6?E >@5:L42E:@?D 92D D@>6 6T64E @?=J :? E2=J )A2:? 2?5 C2?46 H9:49 2C6 2T64E65 3J 2E =62DE @?6 @7 E96 D:?8=6 AC@G:D:@?D 2?JH2J *96 9JA@E96D:D E92E E96 6T64ED @7 5:T6C6?E 2DA64ED @7 E96 C67@C> >2J C6:?7@C46 6249 @E96C 5@6D ?@E D66> E@ 36 4@?LC>65 %G6C2== E96 :>A24E @7 5:T6C6?E CF=6D @? E96 G2C:23:=:EJ @7 8C@HE9 :D BF:E6 C65F465 C@> E9:D C6DF=E :E 7@==@HD E92E E96 >@5:L42E:@?D @7 E96 &24E 2C6 =:<6=J E@ 8:G6 E96 8@G6C?>6?ED @?=J 2 =:>:E65 6IEC2 =66H2J E@ C65F46 E96 G2C:23:=:EJ @7 E96 4J4=6 *9:D 6G:56?46 :D 4@?D:DE6?E H:E9 AC6G:@FD L?5:?8D 68 3J 2=X 2?5 &6C@EE:
(162). @C %
(163). 244@C5:?8 E@ H9:49 E96 4@?DEC2:?ED @7 E96 #22DEC:49E EC62EJ 2?5 E96 ) & 5@ ?@E D66> E@ 92G6 4C62E65 2 AC@4J4=:42= 3:2D :? E96 4@?5F4E @7 LD42= A@=:4:6D *96 6IA=2?2E:@? @7 DF49 2 =:>:E65 :>A24E @7 5:T6C6?E CF=6D :D 62D:=J 7@F?5 :? E96 7@==@H:?8 8C2A9D H9:49 C6A@CE @? E96 2G6C286 56L4:E E92E E96 >@56= D:>F=2E6D F?56C 6249 D6E @7 CF=6D.
(164) .
(165) 56L4:E =6G6=D.
(166) .
(167) 56L4:E =6G6=D C6646 C2?46 2?5 E2=J 2AA62C E@ 36 E96 @?=J 4@F?EC:6D H9@D6 56L4:E H@F=5 ?2EFC2==J 36 9:896C H:E9@FE E96 ) & CF=6D @C E96D6 4@F?EC:6D E96 492?86 @7 E96 E9C6D9@=5 E92E 56L?6D E96 P6I46AE:@?2= 4:C4F>DE2?46DQ E@ 5@6D ?@E >2<6 2 5:T6C6?46 7C@> 4FCC6?E CF=6D H9:=6 @?6 >@C6 J62C E@ 4@CC64E E96 6I46DD:G6 56L4:E :?4C62D6D E96 2G6C286 56L4:E 2?5 2 PAC@8C6DD:G6 2AAC@249Q 7C@> 6I46DD:G6 56L4:E
(168) .
(169) :D 56L?:E6=J E96 >2;@C H62<6?:?8 @7 E96 4FCC6?E LD42= CF=6D 7@C 2== E9C66 4@F?EC:6D @C >@DE @E96C 4@F?EC:6D E96 4FCC6?E D6E @7 CF=6D :7 FD65 E@ E96 >2I:>F> 6IE6?E H@F=5 92G6 C6DF=E65 :? 2 G6CJ D>2== 492?86 4@>A2C65 E@ E96 P?@ &24EQ D46?2C:@ @==@H:?8 E96D6 4@?D:56C2E:@?D :E 42? 36 6IA64E65 E92E 492?86D :? E96 CF=6D @7 E96 &24E 2C6 =:<6=J E@ 92G6 G6CJ =:EE=6 :>A24E @? LD42= A@=:4:6D 2D E96 4FCC6?E CF=6D 2=C625J 8F2C2?E665 2>A=6 >2C8:?D @7 5:D4C6E:@? *96 AC6G:@FD 2?2=JD:D H2D 4@?5F4E65 @G6C >@C6 E92? @?6 64@?@>:4 4J4=6 2?5 :E E96C67@C6 E@@< :?E@ 4@?D:56C2E:@? E96 G2C:23:=:EJ @7 8C@HE9 @H6G6C :? E96 4FCC6?E DE28?2E:?8 64@?@>:4 6?G:C@?>6?E >2?J @7 E96 AC@A@D2=D 7@C C67@C>D @7 E96 &24E 2C6 2:>:?8 2E D9@CE CF? :?4C62D6D :? E96 64@?@>:4 8C@HE9 ? 6G2=F2E:@? @7 E96 5:T6C6?E D46?2C:@D :? C6=2E:G6 E6C>D :? E96 D9@CE CF? 92D 366? :>A=6>6?E65 G:2 D:>F=2E:@?D 4@G6C:?8 2 A6C:@5 @7 J62CD 27E6C E96 6?5 @7 E96 D2>A=6
(170).
(171). *96 6G2=F2E:@? @7 E96 D9@CE CF? 6T64ED @7 E96 5:T6C6?E CF=6D :D :? E9:D 42D6 32D65 @? >62? G2C:23=6D *96 2?2=JD:D 4@?LC>D E96 =@?8 CF? 4@?4=FD:@?D E96 6IEC2 =66H2J :? E96 4@?5F4E @7 LD42= A@=:4:6D :D 6IEC6>6=J =:>:E65 2?5 E96 6T64E @? 8C@HE9 23D@=FE6=J ?68=:8:3=6 =6DD E92? 6IEC2 8C@HE9 A6C J62C 7@C 2== E96 4@F?EC:6D. &%#+) &%). *96 AC6D6?E A2A6C AC@G:56D 2? 2DD6DD>6?E @7 E96 6T64E @7 E96 C67@C> @7 E96 )E23:=:EJ 2?5 C@HE9 &24E @? E96 FC@A62? 64@?@>J D6E @7 DECF4EFC2= ,(D @?6 7@C 6249 6FC@K@?6 4@F?ECJ :D 6DE:>2E65 *96 6DE:>2E65 >@56=D 2C6 FD65 7@C 2DD6DD:?8 E96 A@DD:3=6 6T64E @7 2=E6C?2E:G6 D6ED @7 LD42= CF=6D H:E9 A2CE:4F=2C 2EE6?E:@? E@ E96 )E23:=:EJ 2?5 C@HE9 &24E :? :ED @=5 2?5 C67@C>65 G6CD:@? *96 :?G6DE:82E:@? 9:89=:89ED 2 ?F>36C @7 724ED :D42= A@=:4J 92D ?@E 366? 6T64E:G6=J FD65 2D 2 4@F?E6C 4J4=:42= >24C@ 64@?@>:4 E@@= ?@C :E 92D 925 DEC@?8 AC@4J4=:42= 492C24E6C:DE:4D D:>A=J E96 5:D4C6E:@?2CJ 4@>A@?6?E @7 LD42= A@=:4J D66>D E@ 92G6 366? >2:?=J 2DD:8?65 E@ @3;64E:G6D @E96C E92? DE23:=:K2E:@? *96 @G6C2== 6G:56?46 DF8 86DED E92E LD42= A@=:4J 92D 925 :? E96 D 2 =:>:E65 :7 2?J D>@@E9:?8 6T64E @? E96 4J4=6 *96 C6DEC:4E65 :>AF=D6 C6DA@?D6 7F?4E:@?D 4@?LC> E92E LD42= A@=:4J 92D 86?6C2==J 2 =:>:E65 2?5 2>3:8F@FD 6T64E @? @FEAFE *96 C6DF=ED @7 2 P36DE DE23:=:K:?8 LD42= A@=:4JQ 2C6 5:S4F=E E@ @3E2:? 6G6? 7@C 2 36?6G@=6?E 8@G6C?>6?E 5F6 E@ :?7@C>2E:@?2= 4@?DEC2:?ED @H6G6C E96 P36DE A@=:4JQ 42? 36 2AAC@I:>2E65 3J ?@E FD:?8 5:D4C6E:@?2CJ LD42= A@=:4J 2?5 D:>A=J =6EE:?8 E96 2FE@>2E:4 DE23:=:K6CD H@C< 7C66=J *9:D =2EE6C D@=FE:@? C6BF:C6D 2 4@>A2C2E:G6=J >:?:>2= 2>@F?E @7 :?7@C>2E:@? 2?5 :D =6DD AC@?6 E@ 23FD6 3J A@=:E:4:2?D *96 5J?2>:4 DE@492DE:4 D:>F=2E:@? :D FD65 E@ 2DD6DD E96 6T64E @7 E96 LD42= CF=6D @7 E96 @=5 2?5 E96 C67@C>65 ) &
(172) .
(173) *96 2?2=JD:D :D @G6C2== DFAA@CE:G6 @7 E96 ?6H 4@F?ECJDA64:L4 #65:F> *6C> %3;64E:G6D 7C@> 56L4:E E@ 4=@D6 E@ 32=2?46 @C :? DFCA=FD A@DD:3=J C6=2?5 2?5 )A2:? 4@F=5 36 8:G6? =6DD 56>2?5:?8 E2C86ED H9:=6 E2=J D9@F=5 E2C86E 2 DECF4EFC2= DFCA=FD :? @C56C E@ C65F46 E96 563E C2E:@ %G6C2== E96 4@DE :? E6C>D @7 DE23:=:K2E:@? @7 E96 @=5 CF=6D :? E96 4@CC64E:G6 2C> @7 E96 &24E H2D =:>:E65 A@DD:3=6 :?E6CAC6E2E:@? @7 E9:D C6DF=E 4@F=5 36 E92E 7@C >2?J 4@F?EC:6D E96 )E23:=:EJ 2?5 C@HE9 &24E 92D @S4:2=:K65 @? A2A6C A@=:4:6D H9:49 H6C6 2=C625J :? A=246 FCE96C>@C6 H9:=6 E96 G2C:23:=:EJ @7 E96 4J4=6 :?4C62D65 F?56C E96 ) & CF=6D 7@C D@>6 4@F?EC:6D @E96CD D66> E@ 92G6 36?6LEE65 7C@> E96 9:896C 5:D4:A=:?6 E92E E96 &24E :>A@D65 @? ?2EFC2==J AC@4J4=:42= LD42= A@=:4:6D *96 D:>F=2E:@?D @7 E96 >@5:L42E:@?D @7 E96 4@CC64E:G6 2C> @7 E96 &24E DF8 86DE E92E E96J 2C6 =:<6=J E@ 8:G6 E96 ?2E:@?2= 8@G6C?>6?ED @?=J 2 =:>:E65 255:E:@?2= LD42= 7C665@> *96 >@C6 =6?:6?E E9C6D9@=5 7@C 2AA=J:?8 E96 6I46AE:@?2= 4:C4F>DE2?46D 2?5 E96 AC@8C6DD:G6 CF=6D 7@C 4@CC64E:?8 6I46D D:G6 56L4:ED 2C6 @7 =:EE=6 BF2?E:E2E:G6 :>A@CE2?46 H9:=6 2 =@?86C E:>6 DA2? 8:G6? E@ 4@CC64E 2 D:EF2E:@? @7 6I46DD:G6 56L4:E @?=J >@56C2E6=J 2T64ED LD 42= A@=:4J 2?5 C65F46D E96 G2C:23:=:EJ @7 E96 4J4=6 :? 76H 4@F?EC:6D *96 L?5:?8D 2=D@ DF886DE E92E E96 D46?2C:@D H:E9 E96 2DDF>65 :?E6CAC6E2E:@? @7 E96 ?6H &24E H@F=5 C2:D6 56L4:ED @?=J :? D@>6 @7 E96 9:89 563E 4@F?EC:6D *9:D 6G:56?46 :D 4@?D:DE6?E H:E9 AC6G:@FD L?5:?8D :? E96 =:E6C2EFC6 *96 C6DF=ED @7 E9:D DEF5J D9@F=5 36 :?E6CAC6E65 H:E9 42FE:@? :CDE E96 6D E:>2E:@? @7 E96 >@56= 2DDF>6D E92E 8@G6C?>6?E 3692G:@C 6DE:>2E65 @G6C E96
(174). A6C:@5 42? 36 4@?G6?:6?E=J C6AC6D6?E65 3J 2 F?:BF6 >@56= H:E9 D@>6 5F>>:6D )64@?5 :E :D 2DDF>65 E92E 8@G6C?>6?ED 5@ ?@E 492?86 3692G:@FC2= AC676C6?46D :? E96 #+ 2?5 E92E E96J DEC:4E=J 4@>A=J H:E9 E96 2DDF>65 :?E6C AC6E2E:@? @7 E96 LD42= CF=6D F?56C 2?J 8:G6? D46?2C:@ ? C62=:EJ 2 >@C6 =6?:6?E &24E >2J 36?5 8@G6C?>6?ED E@H2C5D 2 >@C6 C6=2I65 2EE:EF56 @? 56L4:ED *9:C5 EC6?5 8C@HE9 >2J :? E96 7FEFC6 36 =@H6C E92? :? E96 A2DE
(175) J62CD D@ E92E :? DE2?46D H:E9 ?682E:G6 @C 6G6? D:8?:L42?E=J ?682E:G6 8C@HE9 >2J 364@>6 >@C6 7C6BF6?E E92? 6IA64E65 244@C5:?8 E@ E96 6DE:>2E65 >@56=D. . '' % % * (&&* * )* & * ,( # ).
(176) .
(177) . %* /* &% & * $& #. *96 E9C66 =@?8 CF? C6DEC:4E:@?D @? :>A=J E92E. . . . . H96C6 :D E@E2==J <?@H? 2?5 E96 K6C@D @7 E96 2C6 E96 =@?8 CF? C6DEC:4E:@?D *96 C6DEC:4E:@?D 2AA=J E@ E96 EC2?D:E:@? >2EC:I :?2==J E96 ?@C>2=:K2E:@? @7 C6DEC:4E65 C6D:5F2=D :>A=:6D E92E D:?46 @C E96? . ( % ) 0 1 CE:D # 2?5 # FE:
(178). =@D6 E@ 2=2?46 @C :? )FCA=FD &@=:4J #2<6COD F:56 E@ E96 >A=6>6?E2E:@? @7 E96 )E23:=:EJ 2?5 C@HE9 &24E &( :D4FDD:@? &2A6CD
(179) &( :D4FDD:@? &2A6CD 0
(180) 1 CE:D # 2?5 -:?<=6C *96 )E23:=:EJ &24E )2768F2C5:?8 E96 C65:3:=:EJ @7 E96 FC@A62? 6?EC2= 2?< $2E:@?2= ?DE:EFE6 4@?@>:4 (6G:6H 2?F2CJ AA 0 1 2J@F>: * 2?5 :496?8C66?
(181) )9@4<:?8 DA64ED @7 FC@A62? #@?6E2CJ ?E68C2E:@? ? *@CC6D 2?5 :2G2KK: 65D 5;FDE>6?E 2?5 C@HE9 :? E96 FC@A62? #@?6E2CJ +?:@? 2>3C:586 +?:G6CD:EJ &C6DD A
(182)
(183) .
(184)
(185)
(186) 0 1 & G2? 56? $@@C5
(187). *96 D:K6 2?5 C@=6 @7 2FE@>2E:4 LD42= DE23:=:D6CD :? E96 D 2?5 36J@?5 % 4@?@>:4D 6A2CE>6?E -@C<:?8 &2A6CD
(188) % 4@?@>:4D 6A2CE>6?E 0 1 ,@? 286?
(189).
(190) #@C6 8C@HE9 7@C DE23:=:EJ C6M64E:@?D @? LD42= A@=:4:6D :? FC@=2?5 / A2A6CD +?:G6CD:EJ @7 @?? F?6
(191).
(192) . .
(193)
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