Dataset of Party System Change in Italian Regions. 1995-2015

Dataset of Party System Change in Italian Regions. 1995-2015

Silvia Bolgherini (University of Naples Federico II) Selena Grimaldi (University of Padua)

Codebook 20/06/2017

Description

The dataset provides data on party system change in the 15 Italian Ordinary Statute Regions (OSRs) for the 1995-2015 period. The following 10 indicators are taken into account: Total number of Lists (TL); Number of effective parties in terms of votes (NEPv); Number of effective parties in terms of seats (NEPs); Standard Innovation Rate (SIR), Effective Innovation Rate (EIR); Total electoral Volatility (TV); Total Mergers (TM); Total Splits (TS); Bipolarism Index (BPL);

Bipartitism Index (BPT). The dataset covers the entirely the period of the so-called Italian Second Republic (1992-2013), namely the period following the judicial inquiry Clean Hands, which caused the implosion of the previous party system. Although the end of the Second Republic is still disputed, we consider the electoral earthquake of the 2103 at the national level (Chiaramonte and De Sio 2013; Itanes 2013) to be another turn around as far as party system change is concerned.

Altogether 14 elections are taken into account and grouped in electoral cycles as follows: first cycle 1990 (elections May 6, 1990); second cycle 1995 (April 23, 1995); third cycle 2000 (April 16, 2000 and November 11, 2001); fourth cycle 2005 (April 3, 2005, April 17, 2005 and November 5, 2006);

fifth cycle 2010 (December 14, 2008; March 28, 2010; and October 16, 2011); sixth cycle 2015 (February 24, 2013; November 17, 2013; May 25, 2014; November 23, 2014; and May 31, 2005).

Content

Region: Region where the election was held (in geographical order).

Election date: exact day of the poll.

Election cycle: set of elections that, although differentiated in time due to possible snap elections, corresponds to the same mandate.

Total number of Lists (TL): indicates, from the supply side, the degree of abundance of the electoral offer, that is the sum of all electoral lists running in an election.

Number of effective parties in terms of votes (NEPv): also called effective number of electoral parties, it indicates the relative strength of parties based on their votes share.

Number of effective parties in terms of seats (NEPs): also called effective number of parliamentary parties, it indicates the relative strength of parties based on their seats share.

Standard Innovation Rate (SIR): refers to the total amount of votes obtained by standard new parties per election. Standard new parties are considered those whose labels and symbols have never been used in other past elections in the period under scrutiny.

Effective Innovation Rate (EIR): refers to the total amount of votes obtained by effective new parties per election. Effective new parties are considered, more strictly, only those parties with no clear continuity with pre-existing parties neither organizationally, nor as for identity and leadership features.

Total electoral Volatility (TV): measures party system stability through the aggregated vote change

between two consecutive elections.

Total Mergers (TM): occurs when two or more parties contesting an election at time t become a unique new party at time t+1 and none of its components independently exists at time t+1 consistently with the intention of their permanent integration. Accordingly, parties alliances or cartels are not considered genuine party mergers, as each component still autonomously operates at time t+1.

Total Splits (TS): is the separation of one party at time t in two or more subjects at time t+1, thus forming one or more new parties.

Bipolarism Index (BPL): vote concentration in percentage points on the first two coalitions (or party lists if running alone).

Bipartitism Index (BPT): vote concentration in percentage points on the two most-voted antagonist party lists, that is those belonging to competing coalitions.

Sources

Official electoral data of the Ministry of Interior retrievable at: http://elezionistorico.interno.it/.

Official data of the Regions retrieved from the following regional official websites:

May 31, 2015 elections: Apulia, https://www.elezioni.regione.puglia.it/; for Tuscany, http://www2015.regione.toscana.it/elezioni2015/www/Risultati/09000000.html; for Marche, http://www.elezioni.marche.it/.

May 25, 2014 elections: Abruzzo, http://elezioni.regione.abruzzo.it/risultati-liste.

Methodological criteria

The effective number of parties (NEP) is a concept introduced by Laakso and Taagepera (1979), which provides for an adjusted number of political parties in a country's party system. The idea behind this measure is to count parties and, at the same time, to weight this count by parties’

relative strength. According to Laakso and Taagepera (1979) the effective number of parties is computed by the following formula:

NEP= 1

∑

p_i²

where n is the number of parties with at least one vote (or seat) and p

the square of each party’s proportion of all votes (or parliamentary seats). The proportions are then normalised such that, for example, 50 per cent is 0.5 and 1 per cent is 0.01.

The standard innovation rate (SIR) is a measure introduced by Chiaramonte and Emanuele (2013), which takes into account the total amount of votes obtained by standard new parties per election.

Following these authors, standard new parties are considered those whose labels and symbols have never been used in other past elections in the period under scrutiny (1995-2015; 1990 is included to allow comparison with 1995). Party cartels – either with a unique label and symbol (such as The Olive Tree) or without (such as, e.g. Communist Refoundation Party-European Left-Italian Communists or Republican Party-Labour Federation) – are considered as standard new parties as well, also in cases where an effective new party is a component of the cartel. In Italian regional cartels effective new parties are never more than one per cartel and never the dominant component, hence considering cartels as genuinely new would have overestimate the effective new parties’

weight. For example: the cartel Civic Choice (SC)-Great South-Brothers of Italy (FDI), running in 2013 in Basilicata, had among its components SC, which is an effective new party if taken alone;

nonetheless the cartel is still considered as a standard (and not an effective) new party. Radical

Party has been treated as follows: despite minor changes in the labels of its list, the name of the leader, Marco Pannella, has always been present, thus making the party clearly recognizable and in continuity from an election to another in the whole period under scrutiny. Therefore, this party has been counted as a standard new party only in the 1995 election (2000 election in Abruzzo), because previously it had run with a list where the name of Pannella did not appear.

The effective innovation rate (EIR) has also been introduced by Chiaramonte and Emanuele (2013) and takes into account the total amount of votes obtained by effective new parties per election.

Effective new parties are considered, more strictly, only those parties that do not present a clear continuity with pre-existing parties neither organizationally, nor as for identity and leadership features (Sikk 2005). In our dataset are considered effective new parties all personal lists (with the exception of those including also the name of a party), all civic lists which could not be related to any existing party, as well as the following parties: Act to stop the decline; Civic Choice, Five Star Movement (M5s) in the 2010 cycle in Piedmont, Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Molise and Campania, and in the 2015 cycle in the other 9 regions; IDV and Consumer List in the 2005 cycle;

Liberal Sgarbi in the 2000 cycle; FI in the 1995 cycle.

The index of electoral volatility (TV) has been originally developed by Pedersen (1979). Total volatility (Bartolini 1986) is the aggregate net change of votes for a party list in two consecutive elections of the same type (absolute values) and is measured by summing the differences in percentage points between the votes for a party list in an election and those obtained in the previous election. Volatility is thus a measure of the stability of a party system. Total volatility is measured by the following formula:

TV (t )=

∑

|

|

2

where TV(t) is the total volatility, n is the number of parties in the system, p

(t) and p

(t+1) are the percentages of votes for the i-th party at the times t and t+1, respectively. The index varies between 0 and 100. In measuring volatility the crucial issue is to define when a party can be considered as

‘new’ (Sikk, 2005; Powell and Tucker, 2014) and thus included in the calculation of TV. On this point we have relied on the classic criteria set by Bartolini and Mair (1990: 311–312) regarding mergers and splits of existing parties: when two or more parties merge to form a new party, or when two or more parties merge with an existing party, electoral volatility is computed by subtracting the vote share of the new party from the combined vote share of the merging parties in the election immediately preceding the merger. As well, when a party splits into two or more parties, electoral volatility is computed by subtracting the combined vote share of the new parties from that of the original party in the election immediately preceding the split.

Coherently with our previous definition of innovation rate, we have counted as new parties and

hence with “full volatility”, only the effective new parties, while the votes of standard new parties,

which simply changed their labels between elections, are subtracted to those of the parties in

ideological or leadership continuity in the previous election (for example, between 1995 and 1990

Lombardy League was compared to Northern League (LN); as well, Communist Party (PCI) was

compared to Democratic Party of the Left (PDS) and Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) (or

with Progressivists, where present). Moreover, when a cartel includes one or more parties existing

in the previous election, the comparison has been made between those parties and the cartel, e.g. the

Democrats of the Left (DS), the Italian People’s Party (PPI) and the Democrats were compared to

the cartel The Olive Tree. As for the party families (especially Christian Democrats and Socialists),

in order to cope with the extremely complex re-composition events, when necessary we considered

entire blocks of parties in various combinations. Hence according to each single case, different

blocks formed by Socialist Party-PSI, Social Democratic Party-PSDI, Liberal Party-PLI and

Republican Party-PRI were compared to, for instance, cartels or parties/lists such as Riformist Socialist Party; Pact of the Democrats; Labour Federation; Labour/Socialdemocrats/PRI etc…

The Independent movements of Veneto have been always compared among them, notwithstanding their support to different coalitions in different election cycles. The Other-Movements (i.e. L’Altra Liguria, etc…) have been compared with the radical left parties (PRC, Italian Communists and European Left), as some vote swing analyses suggest that radical-left voters decided to vote for those lists or to abstain (Pedrazzani and Pinto 2015).

The total number of party mergers (TM) is the sum of all party lists deriving from a party merger, that is when two or more parties contesting an election at time t become a unique new party at time t+1 and none of its components independently exists at time t+1, consistently with the intention of their permanent integration (Bolleyer et al. 2016). Accordingly, parties alliances or cartels are not considered genuine party mergers, as each component still autonomously operates at time t+1.

Instead when cartels have been constituent members of a new party, they have been counted in the TM, e.g. in 1998 some components of the cartel Pact of the Democrats (which gathered socialist parties and former Christian democratic parties) and the party Labour Federation (which contested separately the 1995 election in most regions) decided to merge into Italian Democratic Socialists (SDI), whose list ran in the 2000 elections as a new party. In this case the merge has been counted as 1 (from two pre-existing lists) in each region.

In the case of the two major mergers of the Second republic (on the center-right side, Go Italy-FI, National Alliance-AN, Social Alternative, the New Italian Socialist Party and ten other minor lists formed The People of Freedom-PDL in 2009; and on the centre-left side, Democrats of the Left-DS, Daisy and other 6 lists formed Democratic Party-PD in 2007

) they were counted 1 in the TM, despite their many original components. Mergers with a specific regional characterization are rare, counting only two in 20 years and of course only for the concerned region. The first occurred in the Veneto in 2000: two independent-regionalist parties (Marco Polo Front and Veneti of Europe) merged into Veneto Front League; the second was the attempt to form a unique right-wing party in Piedmont in 2014 called United Right by merging New Force (FN), Tricolor Flame (FT) and The Right).

The total number of splits (TS), instead, sums all cases of party separations. Splits are separation of one party at time t in two or more subjects at time t+1, thus forming one or more new parties (Bolleyer et al. 2016; Harmel e Robertson 1985).

For example: the three splits occurred between 1995 and 2000 (Party of the Italian Communists- PdCI decided to split from Communist Refoundation Party-PRC in 1998 and ran as a new party in 2000 elections; United Christian Democrats-CDU split from Christian Democratic Centre/People’s Party-CCD/PPI in 1995 and Union of Democrats for Europe-UDEUR split from CCD in 1999) counted as 1 each in the TS. In counting splits we did not consider the original party in the calculation of TS when it continued to exist, e.g. in Lombardy in 2013 the split of Brothers of Italy (FdI) from People of Freedom (PDL), which continued to exist, counted as 1 in that region in TS.

Differently in 2015 in all the regions the blow up (and following disappearance) of PDL led to three different forces so each was counted as 1 in the calculation of the TS.

Other splits regarded only certain specific regions even though involved national parties (e.g. Lista Tosi in Veneto as a split from Northern League; Lista Pastorino in Liguria as a split from PD;

Popolari-Marche as a split from UDC and Oltre con Fitto in Apulia as a split from PDL) and they

1 Other minor components of the PDL were the People’s Liberals (a splinter group from the UDC), Christian Democracy for the Autonomies, the Pensioners' Party, Liberal Reformers, the Italian Republican Party, the Liberal Democrats, Decide!, Italians in the World, Social Action and the Reformist Socialists. Other minor components of the PD were Southern Democratic Party (centrist); Sardinia Project (social-democratic); European Republicans Movement (social-liberal); Democratic Republicans (social-liberal); Middle Italy (centrist); Reformist Alliance (social- democratic).

counted as 1. Splits with a specific regional feature happened only in Veneto, mainly from the Northern League.

The Bipolarism Index (BPL) indicates the vote concentration in percent points on the first two competing coalitions (or lists in case of non–alliance strategy of one of the two). The index ranges 1 to 100. In the considered time span only in 2015 those two coalitions were not the same in all 15 regions. From 1995 to 2010, despite some changes of labels, the two alternative coalitions have constantly been the centre-right coalition, led by Berlusconi’s party (GO Italy-FI and then People of Freedom-PDL) and the centre-left coalition led by the heirs of the former Communist party (Democratic Party of the Left-PDS then Left Democrats-DS and lately, after the merging with the centrist Daisy, Democratic Party-PD). In 2015 election instead, in Tuscany, Marche, Apulia – after the split of the PDL and the re-birth of FI - the best performing centre-right coalition was not the traditional centre-right Berlusconi-led coalition but instead the one formed by Northern League-LN and Brothers of Italy-FDI in the first two regions and in Apulia it was the coalition guided by the former regional president Raffaele Fitto.

The Bipartitism Index (BPT) indicates the vote concentration (in percent points) on the two most- voted antagonist parties that is those belonging to competing coalitions. The index ranges 1 to 100.

From 1995 to 2010 the first two parties were in almost all regions the right-wing GO Italy-FI (later People of Freedom-PDL) and the heirs of the former Communist Party (Democratic Party of the Left-PDS, then Left Democrats-DS, then the cartel OliveTree, finally Democratic Party-PD). In the 2015 cycle instead the main left-wing party (PD) was computed in the BPT together with different right-wing parties: with PDL in Lazio, Lombardy and Basilicata and with FI in Calabria and Campania; while in other 3 regions (Veneto, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany) with the Northern League-LN, which clearly replaced the role of Berlusconi’s party. In the other 7 regions the second most-voted party was the non-allied M5s.

Personal lists have not been calculated in the BPT index even though in certain cases they were the effective first or second party in a region, i.e. Lista Cacciari in Veneto in 2000, Lista Polverini in Lazio in 2010 and Lista Zaia in Veneto in 2015. Being only these three cases out of 90, for the sake of a higher comparability, we decided to compute instead the vote percent point of the corresponding national party, that is PD, PDL and LN respectively.

For all abovementioned indicators we considered the percent points obtained by parties in the proportional part of the electoral system, that is those gathered by party lists in the constituencies.

As the OSRs have a mixed electoral system, voters can cast two votes on the same ballot, one for the majoritarian part and one for the proportional one. The first is the vote cast for a candidate for the regional presidency, the second is the vote for a party list competing for seats in the legislative assembly (Tronconi 2015).

Notes on single regions (Snap elections, calendar changes and electoral cycles):

Italian OSRs were established in 1970 and until 2000 they voted simultaneously every 5 years.

Since 2001 the electoral calendar started to be staggered due to snap elections. However, most of the regions (14 out of 15) votes simultaneously until 2010, while in 2015 only 7 regions voted at the natural end of legislature: Veneto, Liguria, Tuscany, Marche, Umbria, Campania and Apulia.

Snap elections were held in the following cases (in parenthesis the electoral cycle they were considered in):

Molise: April 16, 2000 elections were declared invalid and snap elections were held on November

11, 2001, thus shifting one year in respect to the common regional schedule; regular elections

followed on November 5, 2006; on October 16, 2011 and on February 24, 2013 In this last case the

judiciary decided the necessity to hold new election because some irregularities had emerged in the collections of signatures regarding the presidential candidate who won the elections in 2011 (Michele Iorio, PDL). (2001 elections: 2000 cycle; 2006 elections: 2005 cycle; 2013 elections:

2015 cycle).

Lombardy: Snap elections were held on February 24, 2013 because of the emergence of corruption scandals concerning the regional government led by Roberto Formigoni (PDL). (2013 elections:

2015 cycle).

Lazio: Snap elections were held on February 24, 2013 because of the emergence of corruption scandals concerning the regional government led by Renata Polverini (PDL). (2013 elections: 2015 cycle).

Basilicata: Snap elections were held on November 17, 2013 because of the emergence of corruption scandals concerning the regional government led by Vito De Filippo (PD). (2013 elections: 2015 cycle).

Piedmont: Snap elections were held on May 25, 2014 because the judiciary found some irregularities in the collections of signatures regarding the presidential candidate who won the elections in 2010 (Roberto Cota, LN). (2014 elections: 2015 cycle).

Abruzzo: Snap election were held on May 25, 2014 because of the emergence of corruption scandals concerning the regional government led by Giovanni Chiodi (PDL). (2014 elections: 2015 cycle).

Emilia-Romagna: Snap elections were held on November 23, 2014 because the President of the Region (Vasco Errani, PD) decided to resign as he was under investigation for fraudulent misrepresentation: he allegedly provided misleading information to the investigating magistrate.

The Statute of Region Emilia-Romagna provides for the mutual forfeit of the President of the Region and the regional Assembly according to the formula simul stabunt vel simul cadent.

Subsequently, Errani was acquitted and declared innocent. (2014 elections: 2015 cycle).

Calabria: Snap elections were held on November 23, 2014 because the President of the Region (Giuseppe Scopelliti, PDL) was sentenced for bribery and corruption for his previous activity as major of Reggio Calabria. The Statute of Region Calabria provides for the mutual forfeit of the President of the Region and the regional Assembly according to the formula simul stabunt vel simul cadent. (2014 elections: 2015 cycle).

Glossary of political parties and lists here mentioned:

Alternativa Sociale, translated as Social Alternative.

AN, Alleanza Nazionale, translated as National Alliance.

CCD, Centro Cristiano Democratico, translated as Christian Democratic Centre.

CDU, Cristiani Democratici Uniti, translated as United Christian Democrats.

Comunisti italiani, translated as Italian Communists.

DCI, Democrazia Cristiana, translated as Christian Democracy.

Destra Unita, translated as United Right.

DL, Democrazia e Libertà-La Margherita, translated as Daisy DS, Democratici di sinistra, translated as the Democrats of the Left.

Fare per fermare il declino, translated as Act to stop the decline.

FdI, Fratelli d’Italia, translated as Brothers of Italy.

Federazione Laburista, translated as Labour Federation.

FI, Forza Italia, translated as Go Italy.

FN Forza Nuova, translated as New Force.

Fronte Marco Polo, translated as Marco Polo Front.

FT, Fiamma Tricolore, translated as Tricolor Flame.

Grande Sud, translated as Great South.

I democratici, translated as the Democrats.

IDV, Italia dei Valori, not translated.

Il Nuovo Psi, translated as the New Italian Socialist Party.

L’Altro (plus the name of the Region), i.e. L’Altra Liguria, etc., translated as The Other- Movements.

L’Ulivo, translated as The Olive Tree.

La Destra, translated as The Right.

Lega Fronte Veneto, translated as Veneto Front League.

Lega Lombarda transalted as Lombardy League.

Liberal Sgarbi (personal list), not translated.

Lista Cacciari (personal list), not translated.

Lista Consumatori, translated as Consumer List Lista Pastorino (personal list) not translated.

Lista Polverini (personal list) not translated.

Lista Tosi (personal list) not translated.

Lista Zaia (personal list) not translated.

LN Lega Nord, translated as Northern League.

M5s, Movimento Cinque Stelle translated as Five Star Movement.

Oltre con Fitto (personal list ), not translated.

Partito Radicale, translated as Radical Party.

Partito Socialista Riformista, translated as Riformist Socialist Party.

Patto dei Democratici, translated as Pact of the Democrats.

PCI, Partito Comunista italiano, transaled as Communist Party PD, Partito Democratico, translated as Democratic Party.

PDL, Il Popolo della Libertà, translated as The People of Freedom.

PDS, Partito democratico della sinistra, translated as, Democratic Party of the Left.

PLI, Partito Liberale italiano, translated as Liberal Party.

Popolari-Marche, not translated.

PPI, Partito popolare italiano, translated as the Italian People’s Party.

PRC, Rifondazione comunista, translated as Communist Refoundation Party.

PRI, Partito Repubblicano italiano, translated as Republican Party.

Progressisti translated as Progressivists.

PSDI, Partito Socialdemocratico italiano, translated as Social Democratic Party.

PSI, Partito Socialista translated as, Socialist Party.

SC, Scelta Civica, translated as Civic Choice.

SDI, Socialisti democratici italiani, translated as Italian Democratic Socialists.

Sinistra Europea, translated as European Left.

Socialdemocratici, translated as Labour/Socialdemocrats.

UDEUR, Unione Democratica per l’Europa, translated as Union of Democrats for Europe.

Veneti d’Europa, translated as Veneti of Europe.

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