NATIONAL INVENTORY IN THE FRAMEWORKOF THE UNFCCC/KYOTO PROTOCOL AS A TOOLFOR PLANNING MITIGATION MEASURES TO BE INCLUDEDIN RURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN ITALY

1. I ntroductIon

As part of national and international com­

mitments, Parties have to communicate an­

nually to the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) the National greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. GHG

– L’Italia Forestale e Montana / Italian Journal of Forest and Mountain Environments 67 (2): 179-186, 2012 © 2012 Accademia Italiana di Scienze Forestali doi: 10.4129/ifm.2012.2.05

As part of national and international commitments, Parties have to communicate annually to the secretariat of the UNFCCC the National greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. Methodologies used for the preparation of the Italian GHG inventory follows the IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories as requested by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Between 1990 and 2009 total GHG emissions have decreased by 5.4%. The trend 1990-2009 for the agricultural sector shows a decrease of 15.1%, while the LULUCF is responsible for 94.7 Mt of CO2 removals from the atmosphere in 2009.

From 1990 to 2009, total removals in CO

equivalent increase by 53.2%. Future trends indicate a reduction of agricultural GHG emissions of 4% by 2020 respect to 2009, and an increase of removals of 13% for the LULUCF sector. The role of agriculture in climate change mitigation has been emphasised in the last years, and the Health Check reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will probably have a relevant contribution. The National GHG inventory may be seen as a useful tool to plan and verify mitigation measures to be included in rural development strategies. Monitoring and evaluation of the different actions under the RDPs will be fundamental to assess the contribution of climate change mitigation measures into the trend scenario.

Key words: climate change; mitigation; forest; agriculture; rural development.

Parole chiave: cambiamento climatico; mitigazione; foresta; agricoltura; sviluppo rurale.

Citation ­ c óndor R.D., V Itullo M., 2012 – National inventory in the framework of the UNFCCC/

Kyoto Protocol as a tool for planning mitigation measures to be included in rural development strategies in Italy. L’Italia Forestale e Montana, 67 (2): 179­186. http://dx.doi.org/10.4129/

ifm.2012.2.05

ROCÍO DÁNICA CÓNDOR (*) (°) ­ MARINA VITULLO (*)

NATIONAL INVENTORY IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNFCCC/KYOTO PROTOCOL AS A TOOL FOR PLANNING MITIGATION MEASURES TO BE INCLUDED

IN RURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN ITALY

(*) Servizio monitoraggio e prevenzione degli impatti sull’atmosfera (AMB­MPA), Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA). Via V. Brancati 48, 00144 Rome, Italy.

(°) Corresponding author; [email protected]

inventory submissions, for Annex I Parties, consisting of the National Inventory Report (NIR) and Common Reporting Format (CRF), are annually reviewed with a resulting review report

. Reporting should be in line with the guidelines for national inventories from

1

The last review report from Italy is available: http://

unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/

inventory_review_reports/items/5687.php

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Besides, the legal basis of the compilation of European Community’s GHG inventory is Decision 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament (11/02/2004) and of the council, concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. This decision establishes a mechanism designed to monitor in Member States all anthropogenic GHG emissions (including removal by sinks), evaluate progress made in this field to ensure compliance with the Community’s commitments concerning emissions and their removal, implement the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, and ensure that information reported by the Community to the UNFCCC Secretariat is complete, accurate, consistent, transparent and comparable.

Greenhouse gas emission projections, which include mitigation policies and measures, are also part of international commitments and reporting. Information on how countries are implementing policies and measures is periodically presented through the National Communication reports to the UNFCCC.

This report also includes information regarding national circumstances, vulnerability assessment, financial resources and transfer of technology, and education, and training. Up to now, Annex I Parties from the Convention were requested to submit the Fifth National Communication to the secretariat by 1 January 2010. Italy has already presented this national report to the UNFCCC (MATTM, 2009;

ISPRA, 2009). At the end of March 2011 the Italian National Communication was subjected to a review process with experts from the UNFCCC and soon the review report will be available

. In addition, each two years, at European level, Member States should provide data related to policies and measures, and projected GHG emissions, to be reported under Article 3(2) of the Monitoring Mechanism Decision (Decision 280/2004/EC)

2

The review report for the Fifth National Communication will be available in: http://unfccc.int/national_reports/

annex_i_natcom/idr_reports/items/2711.php

and elaborated in Articles 8, 9 and 10 of the Implementing Provisions (Decision 2005/166/

EC) and UNFCCC reporting guidelines for national communications (FCCC/CP/1999/7).

Italy has presented the last report under this provision on May 2011.

1.1. Greenhouse gas mitigation measures in Italy On 1st June 2002, Italy ratified the Kyoto Protocol with the law n.120 of 01/06/2002. The ratification law also prescribed the preparation of a National Action Plan to reduce GHG emissions, adopted by the Interministerial Committee for Economic Planning (CIPE) on 19

December (CIPE deliberation 123/2002), which establishes an inter­Ministerial Technical Committee (CTE). The main task of CTE is to monitor the emissions trend, the status of the implementation of the policies and measures identified in the overall national strategy, and to identify the potential further measures to meet the Kyoto Protocol target, if needed. In 2009, the CIPE through its deliberation n.

16/2009, decided to enhance the institutional framework through the reconstitution of CTE at level of general director, and its integration with representatives of the Prime Minister office. CIPE deliberation defined for the agriculture sector two GHG mitigation measures: the first considers the reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils, and the second includes the reduction of methane emissions from manure management (MATTM, 2009).

1.2. Rural development and climate change The role of agriculture in climate change mitigation has been emphasised in the last years, where the Health Check reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will probably have a relevant contribution. This reform is distinguished by a gradual shift from a financial support linked to production towards decoupled direct aids, by strengthening the rural development policy, and by increasing the integration of environmental considerations.

The I Pillar links direct payments for farmers

to their respect of environmental laws, where

incentives for intensive production have

been reduced. The II Pillar indicates that from 1 January 2010 (Council Regulation EC 74/2009), Member States shall provide in their Rural Development Programmes (RDPs), in accordance with their specific needs and further specified in the national strategy plans: climate change, renewable energies, water management, biodiversity, measures accompanying restructuring of the dairy sector, innovation priorities. From the climate change perspective, main GHG emission reduction activities are predominantly or exclusively supported by two rural development measures:

farm modernisation (code 121) and agri­

environment (code 214). Some activities support the modernisation of farms through energy efficient equipment and buildings, and promoting biogas production (e uropean

c ommIssIon , 2009).

A report prepared in the framework of the Italian Rural Network has assessed qualitatively the contribution of RDPs in terms of climate change targets (MIPAAF, 2008; MIPAAF, 2009). By the end of 2009 updated information on the regional contribution of GHG mitigation potential was expected from RDPs.

Based on these developments, a study have assessed, quantitatively ex­ante and ex­post, the impact of the Health Check reform in the Italian RDPs. The analysis of RDPs and GHG mitigation targets confirms a moderate impact of activated measures on reduction of methane emissions from manure management through measure code 121 and under code 214. For this last code, it is expected a high impact on the reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from actions oriented to reduce the nitrogen surplus (c óndor et al., 2012). In this context, the reporting and monitoring of rural development agri­environmental indicators such as the gross nitrogen balance (GNB) will be essential to verify GHG and ammonia mitigation targets.

The objective of this paper is to underline the role of the national GHG inventory as a tool to quantify emission levels, to verify the compliance of national emission ceilings and reduction commitments, and planning GHG mitigation measures.

2. m ethodologIes

The National GHG emission inventory is communicated according to the guidelines provided by the UNFCCC and the European Union’s Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism, following international guidelines (IPCC, 1997; IPCC, 2000; IPCC, 2003; IPCC, 2006; EMEP/CORINAIR, 2007; EMEP/

EEA, 2009). The inventory is updated annually in order to reflect revisions and impro­

vements in methodology and availability of new information. Recalculations are applied retrospectively to earlier years, accounting for any difference in previously published data.

The annual NIR reports detailed information on emission figures, methodologies, emission factors and main parameters (ISPRA, 2011).

Emission estimates include the six direct GHG under the Kyoto Protocol (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride) that contribute directly to climate change owing to their positive radiative forcing effect, and four indirect greenhouse gases (nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, non­methane volatile organic compounds, sulphur dioxide).

Emission estimates cover the following sectors:

– energy;

– industrial processes;

– solvent and other product use;

– agriculture;

– land use, Land use change and Forestry (LULUCF);

– waste.

In the framework of Rural Development, agriculture and LULUCF sectors are relevant.

According to the IPCC National GHG inventory guidelines for the agriculture sector, methane (CH

) and nitrous oxide (N

O) emissions should be reported. Enteric fermentation, manure management, rice cultivation, agriculture soils and field burning of agriculture residues are the estimated emission sources. LULUCF sector includes estimations of carbon dioxide (CO

) removals and CO

, CH

and N

O emissions from forest land, cropland, grassland, wetlands and settlements.

Emissions and removals are estimated for each

category and each further subcategories ‘land remaining land e land converting to land’.

The methodologies used to estimate emissions and removals, in the framework of the national GHG inventory, are consistent with those utilised for emission projections from agriculture and LULUCF sectors; in particular, projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 have been estimated with the same models used for the preparation of the national GHG emission inventory submitted in 2011, following recommendations from the UNFCCC (FCCC/

CP/1999/7) and the Monitoring Mechanism Decision implementing provisions. Two scenarios are requested: ‘with existing measures’

projection has to include implemented and adopted policies and measures, and ‘with additional measures’ projection has to include planned policies and measures. Emission projections have to be consistent with the last national GHG inventory data for the preceding years.

For the agriculture sector, activity data from 2010 was collected from official statistics reported by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), while, for 2015 and 2020, data is consistent with information used for GAINS/

RAINS Italy projections. For the LULUCF sector, activity data were collected from National Forestry Inventories (concerning Forest land category) and from national

statistics published by ISTAT, as far concern other categories (MATTM, 2009).

3. r esults and dIscussIon

Total GHG emissions, in CO

equivalent, excluding emissions and removals of carbon dioxide (CO

) from LULUCF sector, decreased by 5.4% between 1990 and 2009 (from 519 to 491 millions of CO

equivalent tons), whereas the national Kyoto target is a reduction of 6.5%

as compared to the base year levels by the period 2008­2012. The most important greenhouse gas, CO

, which accounted for 85% of total emissions in CO

equivalent in 2009, showed a decrease by 4.3% between 1990 and 2009. CH

and N

O emissions were equal to 7.6% and 5.7%, respectively, of the total CO

equivalent greenhouse gas emissions in 2009. Both gases showed a decrease from 1990 to 2009, equal to 14.3% and 25.3%, respectively. The major contribution to the national GHG emissions is the energy sector (82.8%) followed by the agriculture (7.0%) and industrial processes (6.1%) sectors (ISPRA, 2011) (Table 1). The contribution of GHG from agriculture in Italy is below the European average which is 10.2%

for the EU­15 (EEA, 2011).

The agriculture sector was responsible for 34.48 Mt of CO

equivalent in 2009. This

Table 1 – Greenhouse gas emissions and removals in CO

equivalent (Gg CO

eq).

GHG SOURCE AND 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

SINK CATEGORIES base year

CO

equivalent (Gg)

1. Energy 418,545 431,380 450,764 473,538 468,311 458,519 450,802 406,743 2. Industrial Processes 37,673 35,111 35,315 41,108 36,590 37,144 34,286 29,940 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 2,455 2,235 2,302 2,139 2,141 2,104 1,998 1,862 4. Agriculture 40,623 40,435 40,044 37,289 36,695 37,311 35,950 34,481 5. LULUCF ­61,795 ­79,924 ­78,891 ­90,542 ­96,965 ­73,310 ­92,828 ­94,671 6. Waste 19,861 20,790 23,215 20,819 20,175 19,491 18,713 18,094

7. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Total (including LULUCF) 457,362 450,027 472,749 484,351 466,947 481,259 448,921 396,449

Total (excluding LULUCF) 519,157 529,951 551,640 574,893 563,911 554,569 541,749 491,120

Source: ISPRA (2011).

sector has been the dominant national source for CH

and N

O emissions, sharing 41% and 69%, respectively. In 2009, CH

and N

O emissions from agriculture have decreased by 11.4% and 17.9%, respectively (ISPRA, 2011).

The trend of GHGs from 1990 to 2009 shows a decrease of 15.1% which was mostly due to the reduction of CH

emissions from enteric fermentation (­11.5%), which account for 31% of sectoral emissions, and to the decrease of N

O from agricultural soils (­20.6%), which accounts for 45% of agricultural GHG emissions. Main drivers are the reduction in the number of animals, use of fertilisers and agricultural production (Figure 1). Market interventions (I Pillar) from the CAP such as the milk quota had influenced the reduction in the number of dairy cattle (EEA, 2011). In Italy the number of dairy cows has increased by 29% from 2,641,755 heads in 1990 to 1,878,421 heads, and the production of milk has increased from a national average of 4210 kg head

year

in 1990 to 6336 kg head

year

in 2009. Between 1990­2009 the use of synthetic N­fertilizers have been reduced

Figure 1 – National GHG emissions from the agriculture sector from 1990 to 2009.

by 37%, and by 17% and 25% between 2007/2008 and 2008/2009, respectively. The reduction on the use of N­fertilisers has mainly been driven by the cost of fertilisers and the cost of agricultural products (p erellI , 2007).

To be also highlighted that the amount of biogas from animal manure has increased from 1.3 GWh to 88.4 GWh from 1991 to 2009

; as a result, in the last years, the recovery of biogas has contributed with GHG emissions reductions (c óndor et al., 2008; MATTM, 2009; ISPRA, 2011).

LULUCF is responsible for 94.7 Mt of CO

removals from the atmosphere in 2009 (Figure 2). From 1990 to 2009 total removals in CO

equivalent increase of 53.2%; CO

accounts for more than 99% of total emissions and removals of the sector (ISPRA, 2011).

Forest land removals share 65% of total CO

2009 LULUCF emissions and removals.

In particular, the living biomass removals

3

http://www.terna.it/default/Home/SISTEMA_

ELETTRICO/statistiche/dati_statistici.aspx

Source: ISPRA (2011).

represent 50%, while the removals from dead organic matter and soils stand for 8% and 42% of total 2009 forest land CO

removals, respectively. The key driver for the rise in removals is the increase in CO

removals from forest land remaining forest land. Cropland removals share 12.1% of total CO

LULUCF emissions and removals; in particular the living biomass removals represent 97%, while the emissions and removals from soils stand for 3%

of total cropland CO

emissions and removals.

Between 1990­2009 mean Grassland emissions share 13.6% of absolute CO

LULUCF emissions and removals, in particular, the living biomass emissions represent 7%, while the removals from dead organic matter pool share for 3% and removals from soils stand for 91%

of absolute total grassland CO

emissions and removals (ISPRA, 2011). In 2009, at European level, the LULUCF sector accounted for 298 Mt CO

equivalent, an increase by 27%

compared to 1990. Italy (31.8%), France (22.5%), Sweden (14.0%), Finland (13.6) and Spain (9.6%) are the largest contributors to the

LULUCF sector for EU­15. If considering the Forestland category, the greatest contribution to removals for EU­15 was given by France (23.4%), Italy (20.9%), Finland (15.3%) and Sweden (14.2%) (EEA, 2011).

Concerning future trends in GHG emissions and removals, given the current national circumstances for the agriculture and LULUCF sectors, the following mitigation measures have been taken into account. Two GHG mitigation measures for the agriculture sector (rational use of synthetic N­fertiliser and recovery of biogas from animal manure) have been included in the trend scenario (‘with existing measures’).

For the LULUCF sector a business as usual scenario has been taken into account, as no additional measures are planned in the sector.

The main drivers for projections estimations are activity data linked to the LULUCF sector; in particular, given the decision about the elected activities under Article 3.4 of Kyoto Protocol,

“Forest Land” activity data constitute the key variables to project removals by sinks. Key drivers have been identified in:

Figure 2 – National GHG emissions from the LULUCF sector from 1990 to 2009.

Source: ISPRA (2011).

a) forest management: assessment of forest area for the period 2009­2020 was made through data extrapolation, starting from the consolidated time series 1990­2009;

b) afforestation/reforestation: area has been defined following the positive trend individuated in the period 1990­2009;

c) harvested area, burned area by forest fires:

data extrapolation was made, from the available time series.

According to emission projections for the agriculture it is expected a reduction of GHG emissions of 4% by 2020 compared with emission level in 2009, and an increase of 13% of removals is expected for the LULUCF sector, mainly due to the increase of removals in Forest land category.

4. c onclusIons

The National GHG inventory allows to quantify emission levels by sector and to identify main sources; to verify the compliance with national emission ceilings, and verify reduction commitments undertaken in different international contexts; to develop abatement strategies and to identify priorities through cost­

effective analysis and integrated modelling, and to provide comparable indicators accessible to the public.

In this framework, the National GHG emission inventory may be also seen as a useful tool for planning climate change mitigation measures to be included in Rural Development strategies. Monitoring and evaluation of the different actions under the I and II Pillar of the CAP will be fundamental to assess the contribution of climate change mitigation measures into the trend scenario. In particular, GHG mitigation measures, included in RDPs, such as the reduction of nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils for the agriculture sector, and carbon dioxide removals from afforestation and reforestation measures for the LULUCF sector, will be important to monitor and assess in order to verify climate change targets under the Health Check reform and future Rural Development commitments.

RIASSUNTO

Inventario nazionale delle emissioni nel quadro della Convenzione sui cambiamenti climatici / Protocollo di

Kyoto come strumento per pianificare misure di mitigazione da includere nelle strategie

di sviluppo rurale in Italia

Come previsto dagli impegni nazionali e internaziona­

li, le Parti devono comunicare annualmente alla segre­

teria dell’UNFCCC gli inventari nazionali dei gas serra (GHG) di emissione antropica secondo fonti e prelievi da serbatoi di GHG non controllati dal protocollo di Montreal. Le metodologie utilizzate per la preparazio­

ne dell’inventario italiano dei GHG segue le linee guida dell’IPCC per gli Inventari Nazionali dei GHG come richiesto da UNFCCC e dal Protocollo di Kyoto. Tra il 1990 e il 2009 le emissioni totali di GHG sono diminu­

ite del 5,4%. Il trend 1990­2009 per il settore agricolo mostra un decremento del 15,1%, mentre la categoria LULUCF è responsabile della rimozione di 94,7 Mt di CO

dall’atmosfera nel 2009. Dal 1990 al 2009, il pre­

lievo totale di CO

equivalente è cresciuto del 53,2%.

I trend futuri indicano entro il 2020 una riduzione del 4% delle emissioni di GHG di origine agricola rispet­

to al 2009, e un incremento di prelievi del 13% per il settore LULUCF. Il ruolo dell’agricoltura nella miti­

gazione del cambiamento climatico è stato enfatizzato negli ultimi anni, e la riforma dell’Health Check della Politica Agricola Comune (PAC) fornirà probabilmen­

te un importante contributo. L’inventario nazionale dei GHG potrebbe essere visto come uno strumento utile per pianificare e verificare le misure di mitigazione che devono essere incluse nelle strategie di sviluppo rurale.

Il monitoraggio e la valutazione delle differenti azioni previste dai Programmi di Sviluppo Rurale saranno fon­

damentali per definire il contributo delle misure per la mitigazione del cambiamento climatico negli scenari di tendenza proposti.

REFERENCES

c óndor r.d., c rIstofaro e., d e l auretIs r., 2008 – Agricoltura: inventario nazionale delle emissioni e disaggregazione provinciale. Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA). Rapporti ISPRA 85/2008. Rome, Italy. URL: http://www.

isprambiente.gov.it/site/it­IT/Pubblicazioni/Rapporti/

Documenti/rapporto_85_2008.html

c óndor r.d., V Itullo m., g audIoso d., c olaIezzI

m., 2012 – The contribution of Rural Development Programmes to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in Italy. In: Leal Filho W. (ed.), Climate Change and the Sustainable Management of Water Resources. Springer Verlag, Berlin. Part 3, p. 367­387. http://dx.doi.

org/10.1007/978­3­642­22266­5_23

EEA, 2011 – Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2009 and inventory report 2011 Submission to the UNFCCC Secretariat. European Environment Agency (EEA). Technical report 2/2011.

Copenhagen, Denmark.

EMEP/CORINAIR, 2007 – Atmospheric Emission

Inventory Guidebook. European Environment Agency

(EEA). Technical report No 16/2007. Copenhagen, Denmark.

EMEP/EEA, 2009 – Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Guidebook. European Environment Agency (EEA).

Technical report No 9/2009.Copenhagen, Denmark.

e uropean c ommIssIon , 2009 – Commission staff working document. The role of European agriculture in climate change mitigation. SEC(2009) 1093 final.

IPCC, 1997 – Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories.

Three volumes: Reference Manual, Reporting Manual, Reporting Guidelines and Workbook. IPCC/OECD/

IEA. IPCC WG1 Technical Support Unit, Hadley Centre, Meteorological Centre, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK.

IPCC, 2000 – Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.

IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Technical Support Unit, Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan.

IPCC, 2003 – Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land- Use Change and Forestry. IPCC Technical Support Unit, Kanagawa, Japan.

IPCC, 2006 – 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T. and Tanabe K.

(eds.). Published: IGES, Japan.

ISPRA, 2009 – 2009 Italy Climate Policy Progress Report.

Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA). Rapporti ISPRA 104/2010.

Rome, Italy. URL: http://www.isprambiente.gov.

it/site/it­IT/Pubblicazioni/Rapporti/Documenti/

rapporto_104_2010.html

ISPRA, 2011 – Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990- 2009. National Inventory Report 2011. Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA). Rapporti 139/2011. URL: http://www.

isprambiente.gov.it/site/it­IT/Pubblicazioni/

Rapporti/Documenti/rapporto_139_2011.html MATTM, 2009 – Fifth National Communication under the

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Italy.

November 2009. URL: http://unfccc.int/resource/

docs/natc/ita_nc5.pdf

MIPAAF, 2008 – Il contributo dei piani di sviluppo rurale e della condizionalità alla mitigazione dei cambiamenti climatici e al loro adattamento. Rete Rurale Nazionale (RRN) 2007­2013 Italia. November 2008.

MIPAAF, 2009 – Analisi dei PSR sulle nuove sfide del Health Check. Rete Rurale Nazionale (RRN) 2007­2013 Italia. Settembre 2009.

p erellI M., 2007 – Prezzi dei prodotti agricoli e

fertilizzazione. Fertilizzanti, 9 (3): 10­13.