ALTERNARIA SPORES IN EMILIA-ROMAGNA, NORTHERN ITALY:
CURRENT DIFFUSION AND TRENDS Stefano Marchesi
Arpae Emilia-Romagna,
Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna
Technical Direction
Regional Center for environment, prevention and health
http://pollen.utulsa.edu
http://website.nbm-mnb.ca
http://www.crec.ifas.ufl.edu
OUTLINE
Daily concentrations of Alternaria spores in Emilia-Romagna
Introduction of synthetic indicators (from daily airborne concentrations to annual values)
Characterization of Alternaria spore
production period (geographical analysis)
Temporal trends of Alternaria indicators
(statistical analysis)
Aerobiological network in Emilia-Romagna
PC1 PC1
PR2 PR2
RE1
RE1 MO1MO1
FE1 FE1
BO1 BO1
PERIOD: 1999-2017
BO1
BO1 RA3RA3
FO3 FO3 FO2
FO2 FO1 FO1
ALTERNARIA
400 600
800 PEAK VALUE
SPORE INDEX daily concentrations annual season
seasonal indicators (synthetic)
reference period: 1999 - 2017
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0 200
PEAK DATE
END DATE START DATE
SEASON LENGTH (START-END) SEVERITY
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
LATITUDE
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 19-Jun
2-Jun
1-Jun 29-May
26-May
11-Jun
4-Jun
StartDate
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
LONGITUDE
LATITUDE
FO1 FO2
FO3 4-Jun
26-May 26-May
25-May
reference period: 1999 - 2017
LG:
LG: --0.610.61 MI: 0.42**
MI: 0.42**
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
LATITUDE
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 10-Oct
19-Oct
16-Oct 6-Oct
17-Oct
9-Oct
21-Oct
EndDate
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
LONGITUDE
LATITUDE
FO1 FO2
FO3 21-Oct
17-Oct 17-Oct
11-Oct
reference period: 1999 - 2017
LG: 0.20 LG: 0.20 MI: 0.02 MI: 0.02
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
LATITUDE
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 5-Sep
4-Sep
30-Aug 14-Aug
27-Aug
10-Sep
14-Aug
PeakDate
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
LONGITUDE
LATITUDE
FO1 FO2
FO3 10-Aug
16-Jul
14-Aug
reference period: 1999 - 2017
LG:
LG: --0.68*0.68*
MI: 0.52**
MI: 0.52**
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
LATITUDE
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 1162
1305
1023 701
273
1210
367
PeakValue
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
LONGITUDE
LATITUDE
FO1 FO2
FO3 367
559 482
632
reference period: 1999 - 2017
LG:
LG: --0.600.60 MI: 0.44**
MI: 0.44**
MEASURE OF THE MONOTONIC TREND
KENDALL τ COEFFICIENT COMPARISON BETWEEN EACH VALUE AND THE NEXT ONE
SUM OF CONCORDANT AND DISCORDANT TERMS
COEFFICIENT VALUE IN THE RANGE (-1, +1)
THEIL-SEN ESTIMATOR
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
LATITUDE
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 -0.38
-0.26
-0.21 -0.08
0.15
-0.36
-0.07
Kendall tau (StartDate)
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
LONGITUDE
LATITUDE
FO1 FO2
FO3 -0.07
-0.33 -0.26
-0.14
reference period: 1999 - 2017
AVRG TAU:
AVRG TAU: --0.190.19 THEIL
THEIL--SEN: SEN: --0.230.23
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
LATITUDE
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 0.37
0.32
0.15 -0.01
0.37
0.43
0.42
Kendall tau (EndDate)
SEASON LENGTH SEASON LENGTH THEIL
THEIL--SEN: +0.92*SEN: +0.92*
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
LONGITUDE
LATITUDE
FO1 FO2
FO3 0.42
0.06 0.26
0.11
reference period: 1999 - 2017
AVRG TAU: 0.25 AVRG TAU: 0.25 THEIL
THEIL--SEN: +0.625*SEN: +0.625*
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
Latitude [°]
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 0.11
-0.13
-0.24 -0.07
-0.15
-0.06
-0.31
Kendall tau (PeakDate)
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
Longitude [°]
Latitude [°]
FO1 FO2
FO3 -0.31
-0.15 0.13
0.15
reference period: 1999 - 2017
AVRG TAU:
AVRG TAU: --0.070.07 THEIL
THEIL--SEN: SEN: --0.820.82
44.5 45.0
ALTERNARIA
Latitude [°]
PC1
PR2
RE1 M O1
BO1
FE1
RA3 -0.20
-0.27
-0.32 -0.03
-0.24
-0.26
-0.59
Kendall tau (PeakValue)
9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5
44.0
Longitude [°]
Latitude [°]
FO1 FO2
FO3 -0.59
0.04 0.07
-0.09
reference period: 1999 - 2017
AVRG TAU:
AVRG TAU: --0.190.19 THEIL
THEIL--SEN: SEN: --10.5110.51
Concluding remarks Concluding remarks
Analysis of Alternaria spores distribution in 10 monitoring stations Alternaria spores are present during a large portion of the year in Emilia-Romagna (4,5 months, from end-May to mid-October)
Very significant spatial auto-correlation for pollen production indicators; significant also for some phenological indicators
Amount of Alternaria spores is slightly decreasing on average, but trends are significant only locally
The length of Alternaria season shows a significant increase during recent years (approximately 1 d/year) mainly due to a significant delay in the ending date, but also to a starting date significant advance
