Investigating the correlation between GDP and cancers

UNIVERSITY OF PISA

SANT’ANNA SCHOOL OF ADVANCED STUDIES

DEPARTMENT OF “ECONOMIA E MANAGEMENT”

Master of Science in Economics

INVESTIGATING THE CORRELATION

BETWEEN GDP AND CANCERS

Academic year 2014/2015

SUPERVISOR Prof. Tommaso Luzzati CANDIDATE

Abstract

The increasing morbidity of cancer throughout the world constitutes a major challenge for the coming years: the present study’s aim is to investigate the correlation between economic activity and the spread of cancer in the whole world population. The starting point is a general view on the problem through some descriptive statistics of the phenomenon. Then I will present, through a brief literature review, emerging etiological paradigms of cancer, in order to select variables for the following regression. Next, after a methodological description of the data set, built upon Globocan 2012, World Bank data, United Nations population statistics, and general information on cancer registries, the model will be introduced and the regression run. The variables selected should overcome the problem of international comparison, and it will reckon with increasing diagnostic technology. Lastly, comments and suggestions on further research will be provided.

Contents

1.

Introduction

p. 4

2.

Cancer epidemic: basic facts

p. 6

3.

Emerging paradigm of cancer etiology: from linear

p. 12

SMT to paradigm of complexity

4.

Methodology and analysis

p. 22

I. Introduction of the model

p. 22

II. Cancer and GDP: Dataset and variables description

p. 27

III. All Cancers World Analysis

p. 29

IV. Different time lag of GDP

p. 40

V. Idiosyncratic cancers associated with low and high

income countries: an attempt

p. 46

5.

Conclusions and final remarks

p. 51

6.

Bibliography

p. 53

7.

Appendix A: Results of multivariate regressions,

all cancers analysis (sample of 97 countries)

p. 57

8.

Appendix B: Results of multivariate regressions, lag

analysis

p. 61

9.

Appendix C: Results of multivariate regression,