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Stability and Hopf Bifurcation for a Delayed Computer Virus Model with Antidote in Vulnerable System

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Research Article

Stability and Hopf Bifurcation for a Delayed Computer Virus

Model with Antidote in Vulnerable System

Zizhen Zhang,

1

Yougang Wang,

1

and Massimiliano Ferrara

2,3

1School of Management Science and Engineering, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, China

2Department of Law and Economics, Mediterranea University of Reggio Calabria, Via dei Bianchi 2, 89127 Reggio Calabria, Italy 3ICRIOS, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy

Correspondence should be addressed to Zizhen Zhang; zzzhaida@163.com

Received 6 March 2017; Revised 21 May 2017; Accepted 25 May 2017; Published 20 June 2017 Academic Editor: Petko Petkov

Copyright © 2017 Zizhen Zhang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. A delayed computer virus model with antidote in vulnerable system is investigated. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium and existence of Hopf bifurcation are discussed by analyzing the associated characteristic equation. Further, direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions are investigated by using the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to show consistency with the obtained results.

1. Introduction

Applications based on computer networks are becoming more and more popular in our daily life. While bringing convenience to us, computer networks are exposed to var-ious threats [1, 2]. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the spreading law of computer viruses in networks. To this end, many dynamical models describing propagation of computer viruses have been established by scholars at home and abroad. Particularly the classic epidemic models, such as SIRS [3– 5] model, SEIRS model [6], and SEIQRS model [7, 8], are used to investigate the spreading law of computer viruses due to the common feature between the computer virus and the biological virus. Some computer virus models with infectivity in both seizing and latent computers have been also proposed by Yang et al. [9–13].

Recently, Khanh and Huy [14] proposed the following computer virus model with different antidote rates of nodes in vulnerable system considering the immunizations ways and the vulnerabilities of the operating system:

𝑑𝑆 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝐴 − 𝛽𝑆 (𝑡) 𝐿 (𝑡) + 𝜛𝐼 (𝑡) − 𝜀𝑅 (𝑡) − 𝜇𝑆 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝐿 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝛽𝑆 (𝑡) 𝐿 (𝑡) − (𝛿 + 𝛾 + 𝜇) 𝐿 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝐼 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝛾𝐿 (𝑡) − (𝛼 + 𝜇 + 𝜛) 𝐼 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝑅 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝛿𝐿 (𝑡) + 𝛼𝐼 (𝑡) − (𝜇 − 𝜀) 𝑅 (𝑡) , (1)

where 𝑆(𝑡), 𝐿(𝑡), 𝐼(𝑡), and 𝑅(𝑡) are the sizes of susceptible,

exposed, infectious, and recovered nodes at time𝑡,

respec-tively;𝐴 is the constant recruitment of the susceptible nodes;

𝜇 is the same rate at which every node in the states 𝑆(𝑡), 𝐿(𝑡), 𝐼(𝑡), and 𝑅(𝑡) disconnects from the network; 𝜀 is the constant rate at which every susceptible node acquires temporary immunity due to antidote and Khanh and Huy [14] assume

that𝜀 < 𝜇 taking system vulnerability into account; 𝛼, 𝛽, 𝛿,

and𝜛 are the other state transition rates of system (1). Khanh

and Huy [14] studied stability of system (1) and suggested some effective strategies for eliminating viruses.

It is well known that time delays of one type or another have been incorporated into computer virus models due to latent period of virus, temporary immunization period of nodes, or other reasons. Computer virus models with time delay have been investigated extensively in recent years [15–18]. Time delays can play a complicated role in the dynamics of dynamical systems, especially that they can cause Hopf bifurcation phenomenon of the models. In reality,

Volume 2017, Article ID 9360430, 9 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/9360430

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the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation means that the state of computer virus spreading changes from an equilibrium point to a limit cycle, which is not welcomed in networks. Motivated by the work above and considering that it needs a period to reinstall system for the infected nodes in the network, we propose the following system with time delay:

𝑑𝑆 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝐴 − 𝛽𝑆 (𝑡) 𝐿 (𝑡) + 𝜛𝐼 (𝑡 − 𝜏) − 𝜀𝑅 (𝑡) − 𝜇𝑆 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝐿 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝛽𝑆 (𝑡) 𝐿 (𝑡) − (𝛿 + 𝛾 + 𝜇) 𝐿 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝐼 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝛾𝐿 (𝑡) − (𝛼 + 𝜇) 𝐼 (𝑡) − 𝜛𝐼 (𝑡 − 𝜏) , 𝑑𝑅 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 𝛿𝐿 (𝑡) + 𝛼𝐼 (𝑡) − (𝜇 − 𝜀) 𝑅 (𝑡) , (2)

where𝜏 is the time delay due to the period that the infected

nodes use to reinstall system.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 obtains the basic reproduction number of system (2) and discusses local stability of the endemic equilibrium and existence of Hopf bifurcation; Section 3 determines direction of the Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcated periodic solutions; Section 4 covers numerical analysis and simula-tions. Finally, Section 5 summarizes this work.

2. Existence of Hopf Bifurcation

By a direct computation, we get that if𝑅0 = 𝛽𝐴/(𝜇(𝛿 + 𝛾 +

𝜇)) > 1, then system (2) has a unique endemic equilibrium

𝑃(𝑆, 𝐿, 𝐼, 𝑅), where 𝑆 = (𝛿 + 𝛾 + 𝜇)/𝛽, 𝐿= (𝜇 − 𝜀)(𝛼 + 𝜇 + 𝜛)𝐺/(𝛽𝐹), 𝐼∗ = 𝛾(𝜇 − 𝜀)𝐺/(𝛽𝐹), and (𝛼𝛿 + 𝛼𝛾 + 𝛿𝜇 + 𝛿𝜛)𝐺/(𝛽𝐹) with 𝐹 = 𝜇 [𝛼 (𝛿 + 𝛾 + 𝜇 − 𝜀) + 𝛿 (𝜇 + 𝜛) + (𝜇 − 𝜀) (𝛾 + 𝜇 + 𝜛)] , 𝐺 = 𝛽𝐴 − 𝜇 (𝛿 + 𝛾 + 𝜇) , (3)

and𝑅0is the basic reproduction number of system (2).

Based on the leading matrix of system (2) at the endemic

equilibrium 𝑃(𝑆, 𝐿, 𝐼, 𝑅), the characteristic equation

can be obtained as the following form: 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨 𝜆 − 𝛼11 −𝛼12 −𝛽13𝑒−𝜆𝜏 −𝛼14 −𝛼21 𝜆 − 𝛼22 0 0 0 −𝛼32 𝜆 − 𝛼33− 𝛽33𝑒−𝜆𝜏 0 0 −𝛼42 −𝛼43 𝜆 − 𝛼44 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 󵄨󵄨 = 0, (4)

which derives that

𝑀 (𝜆) + 𝑁 (𝜆) 𝑒−𝜆𝜏= 0, (5) where 𝑀 (𝜆) = 𝜆4+ 𝛼3𝜆3+ 𝛼2𝜆2+ 𝛼1𝜆 + 𝛼0, (6) 𝑁 (𝜆) = 𝛽3𝜆3+ 𝛽2𝜆2+ 𝛽1𝜆 + 𝛽0, (7) with 𝛼0= (𝛼11𝛼22− 𝛼12𝛼21) 𝛼33𝛼44 + (𝛼33𝛼42− 𝛼32𝛼43) 𝛼14𝛼21, 𝛼1= (𝛼12𝛼21− 𝛼11𝛼22) (𝛼33+ 𝛼44) − (𝛼11+ 𝛼22) 𝛼33𝛼44− 𝛼14𝛼21𝛼42, 𝛼2= 𝛼11𝛼22− 𝛼12𝛼21+ 𝛼33𝛼44 + (𝛼11+ 𝛼22) (𝛼33+ 𝛼44) , 𝛼3= − (𝛼11+ 𝛼22+ 𝛼33+ 𝛼44) , 𝛽0= (𝛼11𝛼22− 𝛼12𝛼21) 𝛼44𝛽33 + 𝛼21(𝛼14𝛼42𝛽33+ 𝛼32𝛼44𝛽13) , 𝛽1= 𝛽33(𝛼12𝛼21− 𝛼11𝛼22) − 𝛼44𝛽33(𝛼11+ 𝛼22) − 𝛼21𝛼32𝛽13, 𝛽2= 𝛽33(𝛼11+ 𝛼22+ 𝛼44) , 𝛽3= −𝛽33, 𝛼11= −𝛽𝐿− 𝜇, 𝛼12= −𝛽𝑆, 𝛼14= 𝜛, 𝛼21= 𝛽𝐿, 𝛼22= 𝛽𝑆− (𝛿 + 𝛾 + 𝜇) , 𝛼32= 𝛾, 𝛼33= − (𝛼 + 𝜇) , 𝛼42= 𝛿, 𝛼43= 𝛼, 𝛼44= − (𝜇 − 𝜀) , 𝛽13= 𝜛, 𝛽33= −𝜛. (8)

When𝜏 = 0, (5) takes the following form:

𝜆4+ (𝛼3+ 𝛽3) 𝜆3+ (𝛼2+ 𝛽2) 𝜆2+ (𝛼1+ 𝛽1) 𝜆 + 𝛼0

+ 𝛽0= 0. (9)

According to the expressions of𝛼𝑖and𝛽𝑖(𝑖 = 0, 1, 2, 3), we

can get

𝛼0+ 𝛽0= 𝜇 (𝜇 − 𝜀) (𝛼 + 𝜇 + 𝜛) [𝛼 (𝛾 + 𝜇 + 𝛿 − 𝜀)

+ 𝛿 (𝜇 + 𝜛) + (𝜇 − 𝜀) (𝛾 + 𝜇 + 𝜛)] 𝑄,

𝛼1+ 𝛽1= (𝜇 − 𝜀) (𝛼 + 𝜇 + 𝜛) [𝜇 + 2𝜇 (𝜇 − 𝜀 + 𝜛)

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𝛼2+ 𝛽2= 𝛼 (2𝜇 − 𝜀) + (𝜇 − 𝜀) (2𝜇 + 𝜛) + 𝜇 (𝜇 + 𝜛) + (𝜇 − 𝜀) (𝛼 + 𝜇 + 𝜛) (𝛼 + 𝛿 − 𝜀 + 𝛾 + 3𝜇 + 𝜛) 𝑄,

𝛼3+ 𝛽3= 𝛼 + 𝜛 + 3𝜇 − 𝜀 + (𝜇 − 𝜀) (𝛼 + 𝜇 + 𝜛) 𝑄,

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with𝑄 = 𝐺/𝐹 and 𝐹, 𝐺 are specified by (6) and (7),

respec-tively. According to the assumption𝜀 < 𝜇 considering system

vulnerability, we know that𝛼0+ 𝛽0 > 0, 𝛼1+ 𝛽1 > 0, 𝛼2+

𝛽2> 0, and 𝛼3+ 𝛽3> 0. In addition, one can be conclude that

(𝛼1+ 𝛽1) (𝛼2+ 𝛽2) (𝛼3+ 𝛽3) − (𝛼1+ 𝛽1)2

− (𝛼0+ 𝛽0) (𝛼3+ 𝛽3)2> 0 (11)

based on the analysis by Khanh and Huy in [14] when𝑅0 >

1. Therefore, we can conclude that the endemic equilibrium

𝑃(𝑆, 𝐿, 𝐼, 𝑅) is locally stable for 𝑅0> 1 according to the

Routh-Hurwitz criterion.

The time delay is always positive in our physical system. It follows that if instability occurs for a particular value of the

delay𝜏 > 0, a characteristic root of (5) must intersect the

imaginary axis according to Corollary2.4 in [19]. Assume

that (5) has a purely imaginary root𝑖𝜔 (𝜔 > 0). Then, the

following identity must be true

(𝛽1𝜔 − 𝛽3𝜔3) sin 𝜏𝜔 + (𝛽0− 𝛽2𝜔2) cos 𝜏𝜔 = 𝛼2𝜔2− 𝜔4− 𝛼 0, (𝛽1𝜔 − 𝛽3𝜔3) cos 𝜏𝜔 − (𝛽0− 𝛽2𝜔2) sin 𝜏𝜔 = 𝛼3𝜔3− 𝛼1𝜔, (12)

which yields the following equation:

𝜔8+ 𝑝3𝜔6+ 𝑝2𝜔4+ 𝑝1𝜔2+ 𝑝0= 0, (13) where 𝑝0= 𝛼20− 𝛽20, 𝑝1= 𝛼21− 2𝛼0𝛼2− 𝛽12+ 2𝛽0𝛽2, 𝑝2= 𝛼22+ 2𝛼0− 2𝛼1𝛼3+ 2𝛽1𝛽3− 𝛽22, 𝑝3= 𝛼23− 𝛽23− 2𝛼2. (14) Denote𝜔2= V; (13) becomes V4+ 𝑝3V3+ 𝑝2V2+ 𝑝1V + 𝑝0= 0. (15) Define 𝑓 (V) = V4+ 𝑝3V3+ 𝑝2V2+ 𝑝1V + 𝑝0. (16) Thus, 𝑓󸀠(V) = 4V3+ 3𝑝 3V2+ 2𝑝2V + 𝑝1. (17) Set 4V3+ 3𝑝3V2+ 2𝑝2V + 𝑝1= 0. (18)

Let𝑦 = V + 3𝑝3/4. Then, (18) becomes

𝑦3+ 𝑟1𝑦 + 𝑠1= 0, (19) where 𝑟1= 𝑝2 2 − 3 16𝑝32, 𝑠1= 𝑝 3 3 32− 𝑝2𝑝3 8 + 𝑝1. (20) Denote 𝐷 = (𝑠1 2) 2 + (𝑟1 3) 3 , 𝜎 = −1 + √3𝑖 2 , 𝑦1=√−𝑠3 1 2 + √𝐷 +√−𝑠3 21 − √𝐷, 𝑦2=√−𝑠3 1 2 + √𝐷𝜎 +√−𝑠3 21 − √𝐷𝜎2, 𝑦3=√−𝑠3 1 2 + √𝐷𝜎2+√−𝑠3 21 − √𝐷𝜎, V𝑖= 𝑦𝑖−3𝑝3 4 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3. (21)

Discussion about the distribution of the roots of (15) is similar to that in [20]. Thus, we have the following lemma.

Lemma 1. For (15), one has the following:

(i) If𝑝0< 0, (15) has at least one positive root.

(ii) If𝑝0 ≥ 0 and 𝐷 ≥ 0, (15) has positive roots if and only

ifV1> 0 and 𝑓(V1) < 0.

(iii) If𝑝0 ≥ 0 and 𝐷 < 0, (15) has positive roots if and only

if there exists at least oneV ∈ {V1, V2, V3} such that

V∗ > 0 and 𝑓(V) ≤ 0.

In what follows, we assume that(𝐻1)and the coefficients

in𝑓(V) satisfy one of the following conditions in (a)–(c).

(a)𝑝0< 0.

(b)𝑝0≥ 0, 𝐷 ≥ 0, V1> 0, and 𝑓(V1) < 0.

(c)𝑝0 ≥ 0 and 𝐷 < 0, and there exists at least one V

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Suppose that the condition(𝐻1) holds; then (15) has at

least one positive rootV0 such that (13) has a positive root

𝜔0= √V0. Further, we can get

𝜏0= 𝜔1 0arccos{ (𝛽2− 𝛼3𝛽3) 𝜔06+ (𝛼1𝛽3+ 𝛼3𝛽1− 𝛼2𝛽2) 𝜔04+ (𝛼0𝛽2+ 𝛼2𝛽0− 𝛼1𝛽1) 𝜔02− 𝛼0𝛽0 (𝛽1𝜔0− 𝛽3𝜔3 0)2+ (𝛽0− 𝛽2𝜔20)2 } . (22)

Differentiating both sides of (5) with respect to𝜏 yields

[𝑑𝜆 𝑑𝜏] −1 = − 4𝜆3+ 3𝛼3𝜆2+ 2𝛼2𝜆 + 𝛼1 𝜆 (𝜆4+ 𝛼 3𝜆3+ 𝛼2𝜆2+ 𝛼1𝜆 + 𝛼0) +𝜆 (𝛽3𝛽3𝜆2+ 2𝛽2𝜆 + 𝛽1 3𝜆3+ 𝛽2𝜆2+ 𝛽1𝜆 + 𝛽0)− 𝜏 𝜆. (23) Further, we have Re[𝑑𝜆 𝑑𝜏] −1 𝜏=𝜏0 = 𝑓󸀠(V∗∗) (𝛽1𝜔0− 𝛽3𝜔3 0)2+ (𝛽0− 𝛽2𝜔02)2 , (24) where𝑓(V) = V4+ 𝑝3V3+ 𝑝2V2+ 𝑝1V + 𝑝0andV∗∗= 𝜔20.

Obviously, if the condition(𝐻2), 𝑓󸀠(𝜔20) ̸= 0, holds, then

Re[𝑑𝜆/𝑑𝜏]−1𝜏=𝜏0 ̸= 0. Therefore, the transversality condition

is satisfied if (𝐻2), 𝑓󸀠(𝜔02) ̸= 0, holds. According to the

Hopf bifurcation theorem in [21], we can obtain the following results.

Theorem 2. Suppose that conditions (𝐻1) and (𝐻2) hold

for system (2). The endemic equilibrium𝑃(𝑆, 𝐿, 𝐼, 𝑅) is

locally asymptotically stable when𝜏 ∈ [0, 𝜏0) and a Hopf

bifur-cation occurs at the endemic equilibrium 𝑃(𝑆, 𝐿, 𝐼, 𝑅)

when𝜏 = 𝜏0.

3. Properties of the Hopf Bifurcation

Let𝜏 = 𝜏0+ 𝜇, 𝜇 ∈ 𝑅. By the transformation, 𝑥1(𝑡) = 𝑆(𝑡) −

𝑆,𝑥2(𝑡) = 𝐿(𝑡) − 𝐿,𝑥3(𝑡) = 𝐼(𝑡) − 𝐼,𝑥4(𝑡) = 𝑅(𝑡) − 𝑅,

𝑡 → (𝑡/𝜏), and system (2) is equivalent to the following in

𝐶 = 𝐶([−1, 0], 𝑅4):

̇𝑥 (𝑡) = 𝐿𝜇𝑥𝑡+ 𝐹 (𝜇, 𝑥𝑡) , (25)

where𝑥𝑡 = (𝑥1(𝑡), 𝑥2(𝑡), 𝑥3(𝑡), 𝑥4(𝑡))𝑇 = (𝑆, 𝐿, 𝐼, 𝑅)𝑇 ∈ 𝑅4,

𝑥𝑡(𝜃) = 𝑥(𝑡 + 𝜃) ∈ 𝐶, and 𝐿𝜇,𝐹(𝜇, 𝑥𝑡) are defined as follows,

respectively: 𝐿𝜇𝜙 = (𝜏0+ 𝜇) (𝑀𝜙 (0) + 𝑁𝜙 (−1)) , 𝐹 (𝜇, 𝜙) = (𝜏0+ 𝜇) ( −𝛽𝜙1(0) 𝜙2(0) 𝛽𝜙1(0) 𝜙2(0) 0 0 ) , (26) with 𝑀 = ( 𝛼11 𝛼12 0 𝛼14 𝛼21 𝛼22 0 0 0 𝛼32 𝛼33 0 0 𝛼42 𝛼43 𝛼44 ) , 𝑁 = ( 0 0 𝛽13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 𝛽33 0 0 0 0 0 ) . (27)

Thus, there exists a 4 × 4 matrix function whose

com-ponents are functions𝜂(𝜃) of the bounded variation in 𝜃 ∈

[−1, 0] such that 𝐿𝜇𝜙 = ∫0 −1𝑑𝜂 (𝜃, 𝜇) 𝜙 (𝜃) , 𝜙 ∈ 𝐶. (28) In fact, we choose 𝜂 (𝜃, 𝜇) = (𝜏0+ 𝜇) (𝑀𝛿 (𝜃) + 𝑁𝛿 (𝜃 + 1)) . (29) For𝜙 ∈ 𝐶([−1, 0], 𝑅4), define 𝐴 (𝜇) 𝜙 = { { { { { { { 𝑑𝜙 (𝜃) 𝑑𝜃 , −1 ≤ 𝜃 < 0, ∫0 −1𝑑𝜂 (𝜃, 𝜇) 𝜙 (𝜃) , 𝜃 = 0, 𝑅 (𝜇) 𝜙 ={{ { 0, −1 ≤ 𝜃 < 0, 𝐹 (𝜇, 𝜙) , 𝜃 = 0. (30)

Then system (25) is equivalent to

̇𝑥 (𝑡) = 𝐴 (𝜇) 𝑢𝑡+ 𝑅 (𝜇) 𝑢𝑡. (31)

For𝜑 ∈ 𝐶1([0, 1], (𝑅4)∗), we define the adjoint operator 𝐴∗

of𝐴(0) 𝐴∗(𝜑) = { { { { { { { −𝑑𝜑 (𝑠)𝑑𝑠 , 0 < 𝑠 ≤ 1, ∫0 −1𝑑𝜂 𝑇(𝑠, 0) 𝜑 (−𝑠) , 𝑠 = 0, (32)

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and the following bilinear inner product ⟨𝜑 (𝑠) , 𝜙 (𝜃)⟩ = 𝜑 (0) 𝜙 (0) − ∫0 𝜃=−1∫ 𝜃 𝜉=0𝜑 (𝜉 − 𝜃) 𝑑𝜂 (𝜃) 𝜙 (𝜉) 𝑑𝜉, (33) where𝜂(𝜃) = 𝜂(𝜃, 0).

Let𝑞(𝜃) = (1, 𝑞2, 𝑞3, 𝑞4)𝑇𝑒𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝜃be the eigenvector of𝐴(0)

belonging to+𝑖𝜔0𝜏0and𝑞∗(𝑠) = 𝑉(1, 𝑞∗2, 𝑞∗3, 𝑞∗4)𝑒𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝑠be the

eigenvector of𝐴∗(0) belonging to −𝑖𝜔0𝜏0. It is not difficult to

show that 𝑞2=𝑖𝜔𝛼21 0− 𝛼22, 𝑞3= 𝛼32𝑞2 𝑖𝜔0− 𝛼33− 𝛽33𝑒−𝑖𝜏0𝜔0, 𝑞4=𝑖𝜔0− 𝛼11− 𝛼12𝑞2− 𝛽13𝑒−𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝑞3 𝛼14 , 𝑞∗2 = −𝑖𝜔0𝛼+ 𝛼11 21 , 𝑞∗3 = −𝑖𝜔𝛽13𝑒𝑖𝜏0𝜔0+ 𝛼43𝑞3 0+ 𝛼33+ 𝛽33𝑒𝑖𝜏0𝜔0, 𝑞∗4 = −𝑖𝜔𝛼14 0+ 𝛼44. (34)

From (33), we can get

⟨𝑞∗(𝑠) , 𝑞 (𝜃)⟩ = 𝑉 [1 + 𝑞2𝑞∗2+ 𝑞3𝑞∗3+ 𝑞4𝑞∗4 + 𝜏0𝑒−𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝑞 3(𝛽13+ 𝛽33𝑞∗3)] . (35) Then we choose 𝑉 = [1 + 𝑞2𝑞∗2+ 𝑞3𝑞∗3+ 𝑞4𝑞∗4 + 𝜏0𝑒−𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝑞 3(𝛽13+ 𝛽33𝑞∗3)] −1 . (36) such that⟨𝑞∗, 𝑞⟩ = 1.

Next, we compute the coordinates to describe the center

manifold𝐶0at𝜇 = 0. Let 𝑥𝑡be the solutions of (31) when

𝜇 = 0. Define

𝑧 (𝑡) = ⟨𝑞∗, 𝑥𝑡⟩ ,

𝑊 (𝑡, 𝜃) = 𝑥𝑡(𝜃) − 2 Re {𝑧 (𝑡) 𝑞 (𝜃)} .

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On the center manifold𝐶0, we have

𝑊 (𝑡, 𝜃) = 𝑊 (𝑧, 𝑧, 𝜃) = 𝑊20(𝜃)𝑧22 + 𝑊11(𝜃) 𝑧𝑧 + 𝑊02(𝜃)𝑧 2 2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ , (38)

where𝑧 and 𝑧 are local coordinates for center manifold 𝐶0

in the direction of𝑞∗and𝑞∗. We now consider only the real

solution𝑥𝑡∈ 𝐶0of (31), which gives

̇𝑧 = 𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝑧 + 𝑞∗𝐹 (0, 𝑊 (𝑧, 𝑧, 0) + 2 Re {𝑧𝑞 (𝜃)}) = 𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝑧 + 𝑔 (𝑧, 𝑧) , (39) where 𝑔 (𝑧, 𝑧) = 𝑞∗(0) 𝐹0(𝑧, 𝑧) = 𝑔20𝑧2 2 + 𝑔11𝑧𝑧 + 𝑔02 𝑧2 2 + 𝑔21 𝑧2𝑧 2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ . (40) Thus, 𝑔 (𝑧, 𝑧) = 𝑉 (1, 𝑞∗2, 𝑞∗3, 𝑞∗4) (𝐹1(0, 𝑥𝑡) , 𝐹2(0, 𝑥𝑡) , 0, 0)𝑇, (41) where 𝐹1(0, 𝑥𝑡) = −𝛽𝜏0[𝜙1(0) 𝜙2(0)] , 𝐹2(0, 𝑥𝑡) = 𝛽𝜏0[𝜙1(0) 𝜙2(0)] . (42) Since 𝑥𝑡= 𝑊 (𝑧, 𝑧, 𝜃) + 𝑧𝑞 (𝜃) + 𝑧 𝑞 (𝜃) , 𝑞 (𝜃) = (1, 𝑞2, 𝑞3, 𝑞4)𝑇𝑒𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝜃, (43) we have 𝑥𝑡= [ [ [ [ [ [ [ 𝑊(1)(𝑡 + 𝜃) 𝑊(2)(𝑡 + 𝜃) 0 0 ] ] ] ] ] ] ] + 𝑧 [ [ [ [ [ [ 1 𝑞2 𝑞3 𝑞4 ] ] ] ] ] ] 𝑒𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝜃 + 𝑧 [ [ [ [ [ [ 1 𝑞2 𝑞3 𝑞4 ] ] ] ] ] ] 𝑒−𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝜃, 𝜙1(0) = 𝑧 + 𝑧 + 𝑊20(1)(0)𝑧22 + 𝑊11(1)(0) 𝑧𝑧 + 𝑊02(1)𝑧22 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ , 𝜙2(0) = 𝑧𝑞2+ 𝑧 𝑞2+ 𝑊20(2)(0)𝑧2 2 + 𝑊11(2)(0) 𝑧𝑧 + 𝑊02(2)𝑧22 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ , 𝜙3(0) = 𝑧𝑞3+ 𝑧 𝑞3+ 𝑊20(3)(0)𝑧 2 2 + 𝑊11(3)(0) 𝑧𝑧 + 𝑊02(3)𝑧2 2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ ,

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𝜙4(0) = 𝑧𝑞4+ 𝑧 𝑞4+ 𝑊20(4)(0)𝑧2 2 + 𝑊11(4)(0) 𝑧𝑧 + 𝑊02(4)𝑧22 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ . (44) From (40)–(43), we have 𝑔 (𝑧, 𝑧) = 𝑉 (1, 𝑞∗2, 𝑞∗3, 𝑞∗4) × [ [ [ [ [ [ [ 𝑀11𝑧2+ 𝑀 12𝑧𝑧 + 𝑀13𝑧2+ 𝑀14𝑧2𝑧 𝑀21𝑧2+ 𝑀 22𝑧𝑧 + 𝑀23𝑧2+ 𝑀24𝑧2𝑧 0 0 ] ] ] ] ] ] ] + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ , (45) with 𝑀11= −𝛽𝑞2, 𝑀12= −𝛽 (𝑞2+ 𝑞2) , 𝑀13= −𝛽𝑞2, 𝑀14= −𝛽 (𝑊11(1)(0) 𝑞2+1 2𝑊20(1)(0) 𝑞2+ 𝑊11(2)(0) +12𝑊20(2)(0)) , 𝑀21= 𝛽𝑞2, 𝑀22= 𝛽 (𝑞2+ 𝑞2) , 𝑀23= 𝛽𝑞2, 𝑀24= 𝛽 (𝑊(1) 11 (0) 𝑞2+12𝑊20(1)(0) 𝑞2+ 𝑊11(2)(0) +1 2𝑊20(2)(0)) . (46) Therefore, 𝑔 (𝑧, 𝑧) = 𝑉 [(𝑀11+ 𝑞∗2𝑀21) 𝑧2+ (𝑀12+ 𝑞∗2𝑀22) 𝑧𝑧 + (𝑀13+ 𝑞∗2𝑀23) 𝑧2+ (𝑀14+ 𝑞∗2𝑀24) 𝑧2𝑧] + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ . (47)

Thus, from (40) and (47), we can obtain

𝑔20= 2𝜏0𝑉𝛽𝑞2(𝑞∗2 − 1) , 𝑔11= 𝜏0𝑉 (𝑞∗2 − 1) 𝛽 (𝑞2+ 𝑞2) , 𝑔02= 2𝜏0𝑉𝛽𝑞2(𝑞∗2 − 1) , 𝑔21= 2𝛽𝜏0𝑉 (𝑞∗2 − 1) 𝛽 (𝑊11(1)(0) 𝑞2+12𝑊20(1)(0) 𝑞2 + 𝑊11(2)(0) +12𝑊20(2)(0)) . (48)

In order to compute𝑔21, we need to compute𝑊20 and

𝑊11. From (37)-(40), we have ̇ 𝑊 ={{ { 𝐴𝑊 − 2 Re {𝑞∗(0) 𝐹 0𝑞 (𝜃)} , −1 ≤ 𝜃 < 0, 𝐴𝑊 − 2 Re {𝑞∗(0) 𝐹 0𝑞 (𝜃)} + 𝐹0, 𝜃 = 0, = 𝐴𝑊 + 𝐻 (𝑧, 𝑧, 𝜃) , (49) where 𝐻 (𝑧, 𝑧, 𝜃) = 𝐻20(𝜃)𝑧 2 2 + 𝐻11(𝜃)(𝑧𝑧)2 + 𝐻02(𝜃)𝑧 2 2 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ . (50)

From (38), (39), (49), and (50), one can obtain

(2𝑖𝜔0𝜏0− 𝐴) 𝑊20(𝜃) = 𝐻20(𝜃) , (51) 𝐴𝑊11(𝜃) = −𝐻11(𝜃) . (52) Now for𝜃 ∈ [−1, 0), 𝐻 (𝑧, 𝑧, 𝜃) = −2 Re {𝑞∗(0) 𝐹0𝑞 (𝜃)} = − (𝑔20𝑞 (𝜃) + 𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃))𝑧22 − (𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃) + 𝑔02𝑞 (𝜃)) 𝑧𝑧 + ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ , (53)

which on comparing the coefficients with (50) gives

𝐻20(𝜃) = −𝑔20𝑞 (𝜃) − 𝑔02𝑞 (𝜃) , (54)

𝐻11(𝜃) = −𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃) − 𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃) . (55)

From (51), (54), and the definition of𝐴, we have

̇ 𝑊20(𝜃) = 2𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝑊20(𝜃) + 𝑔20𝑞 (𝜃) + 𝑔02𝑞 (𝜃) , ̇ 𝑊11(𝜃) = 𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃) + 𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃) . (56) Thus, 𝑊20(𝜃) = 𝑖𝑔20𝑞 (0) 𝜏0𝜔0 𝑒 𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝜃+𝑖𝑔02𝑞 (0) 3𝜏0𝜔0 𝑒 −𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝜃 + 𝐸1𝑒2𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝜃, (57) 𝑊11(𝜃) = −𝑖𝑔11𝑞 (0) 𝜏0𝜔0 𝑒𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝜃+ 𝑖𝑔11𝑞 (0) 𝜏0𝜔0 𝑒−𝑖𝜏0𝜔0𝜃+ 𝐸2, (58)

where𝐸1 and𝐸2 are constant vectors, to be determined. It

follows from the definition of𝐴, (54), and (55) that

∫0

−1𝑑𝜂 (𝜃) 𝑊20(𝜃) = 2𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝑊20(0) − 𝐻20(0) , (59)

∫0

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where𝜂(𝜃) = 𝜂(0, 𝜃). From (51) and (52), we obtain 𝐻20(0) = −𝑔20𝑞 (𝜃) − 𝑔02𝑞 (0) + (𝑀11, 𝑀21, 0, 0)𝑇, (61) 𝐻11(0) = −𝑔11𝑞 (𝜃) − 𝑔11𝑞 (0) + (𝑀12, 𝑀22, 0, 0)𝑇. (62) Noticing that (𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝐼 − ∫0 −1𝑑𝜂 (𝜃) 𝑒 𝑖𝜔0𝜏0) 𝑞 (0) = 0, (−𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝐼 − ∫0 −1𝑑𝜂 (𝜃) 𝑒 −𝑖𝜔0𝜏0) 𝑞 (0) = 0, (63) and substituting (57) and (61) into (59), we obtain

(2𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝐼 − ∫0 −1𝑑𝜂 (𝜃) 𝑒 2𝑖𝜔0𝜏0𝜃) 𝐸 1= ( −𝛽𝑞2 𝛽𝑞2 0 0 ) . (64)

Therefore, we can obtain

𝐸1= ( 2𝑖𝜔0− 𝛼11 −𝛼12 −𝛽13𝑒−2𝑖𝜏0𝜔0 −𝛼 14 −𝛼21 2𝑖𝜔0− 𝛼22 0 0 0 −𝛼32 2𝑖𝜔0− 𝛼33− 𝛽33𝑒−2𝑖𝜏0𝜔0 0 0 −𝛼42 −𝛼43 2𝑖𝜔0− 𝛼44 ) −1 × ( −𝛽𝑞2 𝛽𝑞2 0 0 ) . (65) Similarly, we have 𝐸2= − ( 𝛼11 𝛼12 𝛽13 𝛼14 𝛼21 𝛼22 0 0 0 𝛼32 𝛼33+ 𝛽33 0 0 𝛼42 𝛼43 𝛼44 ) −1 × ( −2𝛽 Re {𝑞2} 2𝛽 Re {𝑞2} 0 0 ) . (66) Then, we have 𝐶1(0) = 2𝜏𝑖 0𝜔0 (𝑔11𝑔20− 2 󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨𝑔11󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨 2󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨𝑔02󵄨󵄨󵄨󵄨2 3 ) + 𝑔21 2 , 𝜇2= −Re{𝐶1(0)} Re{𝜆󸀠(𝜏0)}, 𝜌2= 2 Re {𝐶1(0)} , 𝑇2= −Im{𝐶1(0)} + 𝜇2Im{𝜆 󸀠(𝜏 0)} 𝜏0𝜔0 . (67)

Thus, the properties of the Hopf bifurcation of system (2) can be stated as follows.

Theorem 3. Direction of the Hopf bifurcation is determined

by 𝜇2: if 𝜇2 > 0 (𝜇2 < 0), then the Hopf bifurcation is

supercritical (subcritical). Stability of the bifurcating periodic

solutions is determined by𝜌2: if𝜌2 > 0 (𝜌2 < 0), then the

bifurcating periodic solutions are stable (unstable). Period of

the bifurcating periodic solutions is determined by𝑇2: if𝑇2 >

0 (𝑇2 < 0), then the period of the bifurcating periodic solutions

increases (decreases).

4. Numerical Simulations

In this section, numerical simulations are presented by taking partial parameters from numerical simulations in [14] and

they are as follows:𝐴 = 1, 𝛽 = 0.35, 𝜛 = 0.8, 𝜀 = 0.15,

𝜇 = 0.35, 𝛾 = 0.05, 𝛼 = 0.35, and 𝛿 = 0.15. Then, the following system can be obtained:

𝑑𝑆 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 1 − 0.35𝑆 (𝑡) 𝐿 (𝑡) + 0.8𝐼 (𝑡 − 𝜏) − 0.15𝑅 (𝑡) − 0.35𝑆 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝐿 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 0.35𝑆 (𝑡) 𝐿 (𝑡) − 0.55𝐿 (𝑡) , 𝑑𝐼 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 0.05𝐿 (𝑡) − 0.7𝐼 (𝑡) − 0.8𝐼 (𝑡 − 𝜏) , 𝑑𝑅 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 = 0.15𝐿 (𝑡) + 0.35𝐼 (𝑡) − 0.2𝑅 (𝑡) . (68)

By virtue of the chosen values of parameters, we can

get 𝑅0 = 1.8182 and the unique endemic equilibrium

𝑃(1.5714, 0.6712, 0.0224, 0.5427). Further, we can verify that

the conditions indicated in Theorem 2 are satisfied. In this

case we can obtain𝜔0 = 0.5209, 𝜏0 = 5.3442, and 𝑓󸀠(𝜔20) =

1.9227 ̸= 0.

Therefore,𝑃(1.5714, 0.6712, 0.0224, 0.5427) is

asymptot-ically stable when 0 < 𝜏 < 𝜏0 = 5.3442 according to

Theorem 2, which can be shown as the numerical simulation in Figure 1. In this case, propagation of the computer viruses can be controlled easily. However, system (68) undergoes a

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1.4 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.6 S(t ) 1.65 1.7 1.75 1.8 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 Time (t)

Figure 1:𝑃is locally asymptotically stable when𝜏 = 5.2482 < 𝜏0= 5.3442 with initial functions “1.55, 0.79, 0.136, 0.75.”

1.351.4 1.45 1.5 1.55 S(t ) 1.651.6 1.7 1.751.8 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 Time (t)

Figure 2:𝑃lose its stability when𝜏 = 6.1752 > 𝜏0= 5.3442 with initial functions “1.55, 0.79, 0.136, 0.75.”

Hopf bifurcation at𝑃(1.5714, 0.6712, 0.0224, 0.5427) when

𝜏 passes through the critical value 𝜏0. This property can

be illustrated by the numerical simulation in Figure 2 and propagation of the computer viruses will be out of control.

In addition, according to (67), we have𝜇2 = 0.8048 > 0,

𝜌2 = −1.2498 < 0, and 𝑇2 = −0.7991 < 0. Thus, we know

that the direction of the Hopf bifurcation at𝜏0is supercritical;

the period of the bifurcating periodic solutions decreases; and the bifurcating periodic solutions are stable. From the viewpoint of biology, if the periodic solutions bifurcating from the Hopf bifurcation are stable, then the susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered nodes in system (68) may coexist in an oscillatory mode. This phenomenon is not welcome in a real network. We regret to say that only supercritical Hopf bifurcation is identified in our numerical case study. However, it should be pointed out that subcritical Hopf bifurcations are quite usual in dynamical systems with time delay, and the existence of an unstable periodic solution makes the dynamics even more intricate, which has been discussed in population dynamics in the literature [22].

It should be also pointed out that we know that onset of the Hopf bifurcation can be postponed by properly increasing

values of the parameters 𝛿, 𝛼, and 𝜇 based on numerical

simulations. In reality, cure rate of the exposed node𝛿 and

cure rate of the infectious nodes can be properly enhanced by updating of antivirus software on nodes; disconnecting rate of

every node𝜇 can be properly increased by the managers of a

real network. Therefore, propagation of the computer viruses

in system (2) can be controlled by timely updating of antivirus software on nodes and timely disconnecting nodes from a real network when the connections are unnecessary.

5. Conclusions

A delayed computer virus model is proposed based on the literature [14] considering that the outbreak of computer virus usually lags. By theoretical analysis, the critical value of the

delay𝜏0where the Hopf bifurcation occurs is obtained and

our results show that the time delay plays an important role in the stability of the considered computer virus model in the present paper.

When the value of the delay 𝜏 < 𝜏0, the endemic

equilibrium of the model is asymptotically stable and the propagation of the computer virus is divinable. However,

when the value of the delay𝜏 > 𝜏0, the endemic equilibrium

of the model will lose its stability and a Hopf bifurcation occurs. In this case, propagation of the computer viruses will be out of control. Therefore, we should postpone occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation by taking some effective measures, such as timely updating of antivirus software on nodes and timely disconnecting nodes from the network when the connections are unnecessary. In addition, properties of the Hopf bifurcation are also investigated by using the normal form theory and center manifold theorem.

Of course, various factors in a real network can affect propagation of the computer viruses. Among them, time delay is important and the present paper thus concentrates on analyzing it. Other network impacts of computer viruses such as network topology, network eigenvalue, and patch forwarding cannot be neglected, and they will be a major emphasis of our future research. Also, stability of the endemic equilibrium and existence of the periodic solutions are

investigated only at the critical value 𝜏0. As stated in the

literature [22], it is an open question yet whether there exists stable endemic equilibrium for even larger time delay. This is the other interesting future research direction for us.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province (no. 1608085QF151, no. 1608085QF145, and no. 1708085MA17).

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