The international risk-sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency
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(3) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. The Intrnational Risk-Sharing Puzzle is at Business Cycle and Lower Frequency GIANCARLO CORSETTI, LUCA DEDOLA and FRANCESCA VIANI. EUI Working Paper ECO 2011/16.
(4) This text may be downloaded for personal research purposes only. Any additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copy or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper or other series, the year, and the publisher.. ISSN 1725-6704. © 2011 Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola and Francesca Viani Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy www.eui.eu cadmus.eui.eu.
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(39) . 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4. -0.2. 0. 0.2. 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3. 0 -0.2 -0.4. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. Japan. France. 2. 2. #!/, . 1. V. 2. 1 2 New Zealand. 1. 1. 1 2 Switzerland. Australia. 0 -0.2 -0.4. 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6. -0.2 -0.4. 0.2 0. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2 Denmark. 1. 1. 1. Sweden. Korea. 2. 2. 2. 1 2 Germany. 1. Austria. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4. -0.4. -0.2. 0. -0.2. 0. 0.2. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6. -0.2. 0.2 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. Ireland. Spain. 2. 2. 1. 1 UK. 2. 2. 1 2 Netherlands. 1. 1. Belgium. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. Norway. Italy. Finland. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 10% confidence interval business cycle frequencies. 1. 1. 1. 1. Canada. Note: Horizontal axis measures frequency. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4. 0.2 0 -0.2. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6. -0.4. -0.2. NC6B>8 8DGG:A6I>DCH D; G:A6I>K: 8DCHJBEI>DC 6C9 G:6A :M8=6C<: G6I:H K>H Z K>H I=: /-. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4.
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
(62) . &
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
(64) . %%# , *'( # !(. Australia. Austria. 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Belgium. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. Canada. 0.2 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Switzerland. Denmark 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2 -0.4. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Spain. Finland. 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4. -0.4. -0.6. -0.6 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. France. Germany. 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 10% confidence interval. 1. business cycle frequency. Note: Horizontal axis measures frequency. #!/, NC6B>8 8DGG:A6I>DCH D; G:A6I>K: 8DCHJBEI>DC 6C9 G:6A :M8=6C<: G6I:H K>6 Z K>H I=: /-. .
(65) Ireland. Italy. 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Japan. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. Korea. 0.2. 0 -0.2. 0. -0.4. -0.2. -0.6 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Netherlands. Norway 0.2. 0. 0 -0.2. -0.2. -0.4. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. New Zealand. Sweden 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 0. 1. UK 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 0. 1. 10% confidence interval. business cycle frequency. Note: Horizontal axis measures frequency. #!/, NC6B>8 8DGG:A6I>DCH D; G:A6I>K: 8DCHJBEI>DC 6C9 G:6A :M8=6C<: G6I:H K>6 Z K>H I=: /-. .
(66) Australia. Austria. 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Belgium. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. Canada. 0.4. 0.2. 0.2. 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Switzerland. Denmark. 0.4. 0.2. 0.2 0. 0. -0.2. -0.2 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Spain. Finland. 0.4. 0.5. 0.2 0. 0 -0.2. -0.5. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. France. Germany. 0.4 0.2. 0.2. 0 0. -0.2 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 10% confidence interval. 1. business cycle frequency. Note: Horizontal axis measures frequency. #!/, NC6B>8 8DGG:A6I>DCH D; G:A6I>K: 8DCHJBEI>DC 6C9 G:6A :M8=6C<: G6I:H K>6 Z K>H I=: G:HI D; I=: LDGA9. .
(67) Ireland. Italy 0.2. 0.4. 0 0.2. -0.2. 0. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Japan. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. Korea 0. 0.2. -0.2 0. -0.4. -0.2. -0.6 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. Netherland. Norway. 0.2. 0.2. 0 0 -0.2 -0.4 0. -0.2 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. New Zealand. Sweden. 0.4. 0.2. 0.2 0. 0 -0.2. -0.2 -0.4. -0.4 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 1. UK. US. 0.6 0.4. 0. 0.2. -0.2. 0. -0.4. -0.2 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 10% confidence interval. 1. business cycle frequency. Note: Horizontal axis measures frequency. #!/, NC6B>8 8DGG:A6I>DCH D; G:A6I>K: 8DCHJBEI>DC 6C9 G:6A :M8=6C<: G6I:H K>6 Z K>H I=: G:HI D; I=: LDGA9. .
(68) . & /$# %(( "* %$) % 3 ( $ ) ( ) * ( '+ $/ 0 (% % $* (* %$ * )* %( ,( " ) $ " , "). )/(.,2. JHIG6A>6 JHIG>6 :A<>JB 6C696 -L>IO:GA6C9 :CB6G@ -E6>C >CA6C9 G6C8: !:GB6CN #G:A6C9 #I6AN $6E6C %DG:6 (:I=:GA6C9H (DGL6N (:L 3:6A6C9 -L:9:C /% /-. NC6B>8 8DGG:A6I>DC ,8 , , KH / . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (. KH ,)1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (). DGG:A6I>DCH :FJ6A ID DG H><C6A 8D>CI:<G6I>DC D; I=: H:G>:H >C A:K:AH. .
(69) . %%# , ) "$! $#$"-. .=: LDGA9 :8DCDBN >H HE:8>P:9 6;I:G DGH:II> :I 6A 4 5 #I 8DCH>HIH D; ILD 8DJCIG>:H D; :FJ6A H>O: # 6C9 " 68= 8DJCIGN HE:8>6A>O:H >C DC: INE: D; IG6967A: <DD9 EGD9J8:9 >C 6 CJB7:G D; K6G>:I>:H DG 7G6C9H 9:PC:9 DK:G 6 8DCI>CJJB D; JC>I B6HH G6C9H D; IG6967A: <DD9H 6G: >C9:M:9 7N 6
(70) >C I=: "DB: 8DJCIGN 6C9 5
(71) >C I=: DG:><C 8DJCIGN #C 699>I>DC :68= 8DJCIGN EGD9J8:H 6C 6GG6N D; 9>Y:G:CI>6I:9 CDCIG6967A:H >C9:M:9 7N ;
(72) (DCIG69:9 <DD9H 6G: :>I=:G 8DCHJB:9 DG JH:9 ID B6@: >CI:GB:9>6I: IG6967A: <DD9H 6 6C9 5 6K6>A67A: ID 9DB:HI>8 8DCHJB:GH >GBH EGD9J8>C< IG6967A: 6C9 CDCIG69:9 <DD9H 6G: BDCDEDA>HI>8 HJEEA>:GH D; DC: 7G6C9 D; <DD9H DCAN .=:H: PGBH 8DB7>C: 86E>I6A L>I= 9>Y:G:CI>6I:9 9DB:HI>8 A67DG >CEJIH >C 6 8DCI>CJJB D; JC>I B6HH 68= LDG@:G D88JE>:H 6 ED>CI >C I=>H 8DCI>CJJB 6C9 68IH 6H 6 BDCDEDA>HI>8 HJEEA>:G D; 6 9>Y:G:CI>6I:9 INE: D; A67DG >CEJI ID 6AA PGBH >C I=: 9DB:HI>8 :8DCDBN >GBH DE:G6I>C< >C I=: 9>HIG>7JI>DC H:8IDG 7N 8DCIG6HI 6G: 6HHJB:9 ID DE:G6I: JC9:G E:G;:8I 8DBE:I>I>DC .=:N 7JN IG6967A: <DD9H 6C9 9>HIG>7JI: I=:B ID 8DCHJB:GH JH>C< CDCIG69:9 <DD9H 6H I=: DCAN >CEJI >C EGD9J8I>DC #C I=: 76H:A>C: BD9:A EG>8:H L>AA 7: 6HHJB:9 ID 7: E:G;:8IAN Q:M>7A: A. I:GC6I>K: HE:8>P86I>DCH >C8AJ9: CDB>C6A EG>8: G><>9>I>:H K>6 I=: 6HHJBEI>DC I=6I PGBH ;68: 6 FJ69G6I>8 8DHI D; 69?JHI>C< <DD9HS EG>8:H 1=6I ;DAADLH 9:H8G>7:H I=: H:I JE ;D8JH>C< DC I=: "DB: 8DJCIGN L>I= I=: JC9:GHI6C9>C< I=6I :MEG:HH>DCH H>B>A6G ID I=: DC:H EG:H:CI:9 >C I=: I:MI 6AHD 8=6G68I:G>O: I=: DG:><C :8DC. DBN H G:<6G9H CDI6I>DC K6G>67A:H G:;:GG:9 ID DG:><C PGBH 6C9 =DJH:=DA9H 6G: B6G@:9 L>I= 6C 6HI:G>H@. . $*( $!0( '$!". .=: G:EG:H:CI6I>K: "DB: 6<:CI >C I=: BD9:A B6M>B>O:H I=: :ME:8I:9 K6AJ: D; =:G A>;:I>B: JI>A>IN <>K:C 7N
(73). . ' ' &
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
(75) 8DCHI6CI :A6HI>8>IN D; HJ7HI>IJI>DC 6C9 DCHJBEI>DC D; "DB: 6C9 DG:><C <DD9H 7N I=: "DB: =DJH:=DA9 >H 9:PC:9 6H
(76) .
(77). . . . 6. ;. . 46. . .
(78). . 4; . . 5. . 45. . . .=: ;JAA 8DCHJBEI>DC 76H@:I >C :68= 8DJCIGN >H 9:PC:9 7N I=: ;DAADL>C< - 6<<G:<6IDG & % . 2 2. L=:G: 2 6C9 2 6G: I=: L:><=IH DC I=: 8DCHJBEI>DC D; IG69:9 6C9 CDCIG69:9. <DD9H G:HE:8I>K:AN 6C9 >H I=: 8DCHI6CI :A6HI>8>IN D; HJ7HI>IJI>DC 7:IL::C 6C9 .=: 8DCHJBEI>DC >C9:M D; IG69:9 <DD9H >H <>K:C 7N I=: ;DAADL>C< - 6<<G:<6IDG & % 2 2
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