The sclerosis of regional electricity intensities in Italy: anaggregate and sectoral analysis

Working Paper Series Department of Economics

University of Verona

The sclerosis of regional electricity intensities in Italy: an aggregate and sectoral analysis

Andrea Vaona

WP Number: 18 May 2012

U n iv e rs it y o f V e ro n a

V ia d e ll'a rt ig lie r e 1 9

3 7 1 2 9 V e r o n a

E m a il: a n d re a .v a o n a @ u n iv r .it

K ie l In s tit u te f o r t h e W o r ld E c o n o m y

T h e c o n v e rg e n c e o f re g io n a l e le c t ric ity in t e n s it ie s

in It a ly is s t u d ie d o v e r t h e p e rio d f ro m 1 9 9 7 to

2 0 0 7 . W e s t re s s t h e im p o rt a n c e o f t h e s ta t is t ic a l

s ig n if ic a n c e o f t h e re s u lts , w h ic h p o in t t o a n

im p re s s iv e s c le ro s is o f t h e g e o g ra p h ic d is t ri b u tio n

o f t h e v a ria b le u n d e r s c r u t in y . A s h iftM s h a re

a n a ly s is p o in ts to t h e im p o rt a n c e o f re g io n

s p e c ific e ffe c t s . P o lic y im p lic a t io n s a re d is c u s s e d .

c o n s u m p t io n o v e r o u t p u t ( e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y ) a n d r e s id e n t ia l e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d

d is p la y a n y t e n d e n c y t o c o n v e r g e a t t h e r e g io n a l le v e l in It a ly f r o m 1 9 9 7 t o 2 0 0 7 . S p e c if ic a lly w e

c o n s id e r t h e 2 0 N U T S 2 It a lia n r e g io n s 1 . In s o d o in g w e s h if t t h e f o c u s o f t h e lit e r a t u r e t o w a r d s a

n u m b e r o f u n e x p lo r e d d ir e c t io n s .

F ir s t , w e c o n s id e r a f in e r le v e l o f g e o g r a p h ic d is a g g r e g a t io n , w h ic h h a s r e c e n t ly r e c e iv e d a

c o n s id e r a b le a t t e n t io n b y p o lic y m a k e r s p r o m o t in g a lo w c a r b o n e c o n o m y . B o t h t h e A s s e m b ly o f

E u r o p e a n R e g io n s a n d t h e O E C D h ig h lig h t e d t h a t t h e s u b  n a t io n a l le v e l p la y s a k e y r o le in t u r n in g

p o lit ic a l E u r o p e a n a n d n a t io n a l c o m m it m e n t s in t o c o n c r e t e a c t io n a n d in d e t e r m in in g t h e a c t u a l

m ix o f f u e ls n e e d e d t o e n s u r e e n e r g y s e c u r it y a n d s u st a in a b le e c o n o m ic g r o w t h (A s s e m b ly o f

E u r o p e a n R e g io n s , 2 0 1 0 ; O E C D L E E D , 2 0 1 2 ).

R e g a r d in g It a ly , t h e n a t io n a l la w 1 3 / 2 0 0 9 s h a r e d t h e E u r o p e a n t a r g e t s f o r t h e p r o d u c t io n o f

r e n e w a b le e n e r g y in d iff e r e n t p r o p o rt io n s a m o n g t h e It a lia n r e g io n s ( C o la n g e lo , 2 0 1 1 ). A s a

c o n s e q u e n c e , b y 2 0 1 0 a ll t h e It a lia n r e g io n s a p p r o v e d R e g io n a l E n e r g e t ic / E n v ir o n m e n t a l P la n s ,

d e v is in g t h e ir s t r a t e g ie s t o f o s t e r e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y a n d t h e u s e o f t h e a v a ila b le a n d m o s t

c o n v e n ie n t r e n e w a b le e n e r g y s o u r c e s .

In a d d it io n , f o c u s in g o n r e g io n a l d a t a is in t e r e s t in g b e c a u s e s u s t a in a b le e n e r g y p r o d u c t io n a n d

c o n s u m p t io n a r e in c r e a s in g ly r e g a r d e d b y t h e E u r o p e a n r e g io n a l p o lic y a s c r u c ia l s t r a t e g ie s t o

f o st e r t h e d e v e lo p m e n t o f la g g in g r e g io n s (e .g . S t r e im ik ie n e e t a l., 2 0 0 5 ; K le v a s a n d A n t in u c c i,

2 0 0 4 ) . F o r in st a n c e It a lia n S o u t h e r n r e g io n s , t r a d it io n a lly c h a r a c t e r is e d b y d e v e lo p m e n t p r o b le m s ,

r e c e iv e d s ig n if ic a n t e c o n o m ic t r a n s f e r s f r o m t h e E U , t h r o u g h t h e a p p r o v a l o f R e g io n a l O p e r a t io n a l

1 N U T S is t h e F r e n c h a c ro n y m fo r N o m e n c la t u r e o f T e r rito ria l U n its fo r S ta t is t ic s u s e d b y E u ro s ta t . In t h is

2 0 1 1 , p . 1 0 5 ) .

O u r s e c o n d u n e x p lo r e d d ir e c t io n is t h a t w e c o n s id e r a t t h e s u b Ð n a t io n a l le v e l a d iff e r e n t c o u n t ry

t h a n t h e U S Ð w h ic h w e r e t h e f o c u s o f m o s t p r e v io u s st u d ie s in t h e f ie ld Ð n a m e ly It a ly . A s st r e s s e d

a ls o b y B a st ia n e lli ( 2 0 0 6 ) a n d V a o n a (2 0 1 2 ), a d o p t in g a n It a lia n d a t a s e t is in t e r e st in g b e c a u s e it

c a n w e ll r e p r e s e n t t h e c h a lle n g e s f a c in g c o u n t r ie s , s u c h a s B e lg iu m , G r e e c e , L u x e m b o u r g ,

P o rt u g a l, S p a in a n d o t h e r s t h a t c o n s id e r a b ly d e p e n d o n e n e r g y im p o rt s .

U n d e r a m e t h o d o lo g ic a l p o in t o f v ie w , w e g iv e m o r e im p o rt a n c e t h a n p r e v io u s c o n t r ib u t io n s t o

a s s e s s in g t h e st a t ist ic a l s ig n if ic a n c e o f h ig h lig h t e d d e v e lo p m e n t s a n d w e a ls o a d o p t a s h if t Ðs h a r e

a n a ly s is a f t e r E s t e b a n (2 0 0 0 ) .

T h e r e s t o f t h is p a p e r is s t r u c t u r e d a s f o llo w s . T h e n e x t s e c t io n is d e v o t e d t o t h e lit e r a t u r e r e v ie w ,

w h e r e w e in c lu d e s t u d ie s a n a ly z in g s im ila r v a r ia b le s t o o u r s . T h e n o u r d a t a a n d m e t h o d s a r e

illu s t r a t e d , f o llo w e d b y o u r r e s u lt s . T h e la s t s e c t io n c o n c lu d e s a ls o d r a w in g p o lic y im p lic a t io n s .

C o n v e r g e n c e a n a ly s e s h a v e b e e n r e c e n t ly s p r e a d in g f r o m e c o n o m ic g r o w t h s t u d ie s (B a r r o , 1 9 9 1 )

t o e n e r g y is s u e s , s u c h a s C O 2 e m is s io n s (A ld y , 2 0 0 6 , 2 0 0 7 ; R o m e r o ÐA v ila , 2 0 0 8 ) a n d e n e r g y

in t e n s it y (M ie ln ik a n d G o ld e m b e r g , 2 0 0 0 ; C o r n illie a n d F a n k h a u s e r , 2 0 0 4 ; M a r k a n d y a e t a l., 2 0 0 6 ;

E z c u r r a , 2 0 0 7 ). T h is is b e c a u s e t h e s e is s u e s c a n h a v e im p o rt a n t im p lic a t io n s f o r b o t h p o lic ie s a n d

f u t u r e e n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n f o r e c a s t s .

A g r e a t e r d e g r e e o f s im ila r it y b e t w e e n d e v e lo p in g a n d d e v e lo p e d c o u n t r ie s r e g a r d in g e m is s io n s

m a y s o f t e n t h e o p p o s it io n o f t h e f o r m e r o n e s a g a in s t e m is s io n c a p s . A s im ila r p a t t e r n r e g a r d in g

e n e r g y in t e n s it y a ls o s ig n a ls a n in c r e a s e in e n e r g y p r o d u c t iv it y in d e v e lo p in g c o u n t r ie s . A c a v e a t is

w a r r a n t e d t h o u g h . T h e c o n n e c t io n b e t w e e n e n e r g y in t e n s it y a n d e ff ic ie n c y is a c o m p le x o n e a n d it

a c t iv it ie s , r e s o u r c e e n d o w m e n t , p o p u la t io n d e n s it y a n d c lim a t e (C o r n illie a n d F a n k h a u s e r , 2 0 0 4 ).

T h e r e f o r e , o n e c a n a t b e s t e x p e c t c o n v e r g e n c e in e n e r g y in t e n s it y t o b e c o n d it io n a l o n s u c h

f a c t o r s . H o w e v e r , e p is o d e s o f m a r k e d c o n v e r g e n c e a m o n g c o u n t r ie s w e r e in t e r p r e t e d a s r e s u lt o f

e f f ic ie n c y g a in s o n t h e v e ry b a s is o f t h e ir s iz e .

T h e in t e r e st in e n e r g y in t e n s it y is a ls o m o t iv a t e d b y it s im p o rt a n c e in f o r e c a s t in g f u t u r e e n e r g y

c o n s u m p t io n , t h o u g h k e e p in g in m in d t h a t , o n c e a g a in , t h e m e c h a n is m s a t st a k e c a n b e c o m p le x .

A c c o r d in g t o t h e J e v o n 's p a r a d o x , in c r e a s e s in e n e r g y in t e n s it y c a n g o h a n d in h a n d w it h in c r e a s e s ,

a n d n o t d e c r e a s e s , in e n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n (H e r r in g , 2 0 0 6 ) .

A s u b üs t r e a m o f lit e r a t u r e r e c e n t ly f o c u s e d o n e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y , w h ic h is o f t e n m e a s u r e d in

d if f e r e n t w a y s . U s u a lly t h e r a t io b e t w e e n e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n a n d o u t p u t is a d o p t e d , b u t f o r

t h e r e s id e n t ia l s e c t o r v a r io u s in d ic a t o r s w e r e p r o p o s e d (S c h ip p e r e t a l., 2 0 0 1 ), t h e m o s t p o p u la r

b e in g e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d .

E le c t r ic it y is im p o rt a n t u n d e r s e v e r a l r e s p e c t s . U n d e r a n h ist o r ic a l p o in t o f v ie w , it p la y e d a n

im p o rt a n t r o le in t h e s o üc a lle d " S e c o n d In d u st r ia l R e v o lu t io n " a n d in e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n t in

g e n e r a l (R o s e n b e r g , 1 9 9 8 ) . A c c o r d in g t o C le v e la n d e t a l. (1 9 8 4 ) a n d K a u f m a n n (1 9 9 2 ), t h e s h if t

f r o m c o a l t o o il a n d f r o m o il t o e le c t r ic it y c a n e x p la in t h e d e c r e a s e in e n e r g y in t e n s it y in F r a n c e ,

G e r m a n y , t h e U K a n d t h e U S f r o m t h e s e c o n d w o r ld w a r t o t h e la t e 1 9 8 0 s . F u rt h e r m o r e , in 2 0 0 9

e le c t r ic it y g e n e r a t io n a n d h e a t p r o d u c e d 4 1 % o f g lo b a l C O 2 e m is s io n s (IE A , 2 0 1 1 ) .

T h e c o m p le x it y a n d t h e r e le v a n c e o f t h e is s u e s a t s t a k e s p u r r e d a n in c r e a s in g lit e r a t u r e in t h e

f ie ld . L id d le (2 0 0 9 ) p e rf o r m s b o t h a n a g g r e g a t e a n d a s e c t o r a l a n a ly s e s o f a s a m p le o f IE A / O E C D

c o u n t r ie s o v e r 3 5 ü 4 5 y e a r s . H is f in d in g s a r e t h a t t h e r e w a s a le s s d r a m a t ic c o n v e r g e n c e in

m o d a l o n e . F in a lly c o u n t r ie s c o u ld b e d iv id e d in t o t h r e e g r o u p s o n t h e b a s is o f t h e g r o w t h r a t e o f

t h e ir r e s id e n t ia l e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y . V e r b r u g g e n (2 0 0 6 ) f in d s a n e g a t iv e r e la t io n b e t w e e n e n e r g y

in t e n s it y a n d e n e r g y p r ic e s , t h o u g h o n ly r e g a r d in g o n e y e a r , 1 9 9 7 , in 1 4 O E C D c o u n t r ie s .

A ls o d a t a s e t s a t t h e s u b 2n a t io n a l le v e l w e r e c o n s id e r e d , t h o u g h m a in ly f o r t h e U S . S a ilo r a n d

M u ñ o z ( 1 9 9 7 ) a s s e s s e s t h e lin k b e t w e e n e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n a n d c lim a t e in e ig h t U S S t a t e s ,

a ft e r a c c o u n t in g f o r t h e ir p o p u la t io n s iz e .

A c c o r d in g t o H o r o w it z ( 2 0 0 7 ), e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y p r o g r a m s r e d u c e d e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y in

in d u s t r ia l, r e s id e n t ia l a n d c o m m e r c ia l s e c t o r s in t h e U S . A s im ila r e ff e c t w a s n o t ic e d f o r e le c t r ic it y

c o n s u m p t io n in t h e in d u st r ia l a n d c o m m e r c ia l s e c t o r s , b u t n o t f o r t h e r e s id e n t ia l o n e , w h e r e

e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n in c r e a s e d . T h e r e f o r e J e v o n s ' p a r a d o x w a s c o n f ir m e d in t h e la s t c a s e b u t

n o t in t h e t w o f ir s t o n e s .

B y a d o p t in g p a n e l d a t a e c o n o m e t r ic s t e c h n iq u e s , A r o o n r u e n g s a w a t e t a l. (2 0 1 2 ) s h o w s t h a t

r e s id e n t ia l b u ild in g c o d e s d e c r e a s e d p e r c a p it a r e s id e n t ia l e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n in t h o s e U S

S t a t e s e x p e r ie n c in g a s ig n if ic a n t a m o u n t o f n e w c o n s t r u c t io n .

H o r o w it z (2 0 0 8 ) u s e s e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y m e a s u r e s in U S S t a t e s t o s h o w t h a t it is n o t p o s s ib le t o

e m p ir ic a lly o b s e rv e e n e r g y e f f ic ie n c y e n c o u r a g e d t h r o u g h p u b lic p o lic ie s o n t h e b a s is t h a t " W h a t

さｷ ざ"I;ﾐ"HW"Iﾗ ﾐ WSが" ｴ; "さﾏｷｪｴ "ｴ; W"HWWﾐざ"I;ﾐﾐﾗ ゎく

C e b u la (2 0 1 0 , 2 0 1 2 ) f o c u s o n f a c t o r s d r iv in g e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d in U S S t a t e s f r o m

2 0 0 1 t o 2 0 0 5 b y r e s o rt in g t o a p a n e l 2 S L S e s t im a t o r . It is f o u n d t h e r e t h a t e le c t r ic it y p e r

r e s id e n t ia l c u s t o m e r c a n b e e x p la in e d b y t h e a n n u a l n u m b e r o f c o o lin g d e g r e e d a y s , r e a l p e r

c a p it a p e r s o n a l d is p o s a b le in c o m e , t h e r e a l u n it p r ic e o f n a t u r a l g a s a n d p e a k s u m m e r e le c t r ic it y

g e n e r a t in g c a p a c it y 2 a ll w it h p o s it iv e s ig n s . E le c t r ic it y p e r r e s id e n t ia l c u s t o m e r is a n e g a t iv e

h e a t in g , a s w e ll a s t h e d e g r e e t o w h ic h e a c h s t a t e h a s p u r s u e d e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y p o lic ie s . C e b u la

( 2 0 1 3 ) s h ift s in s t e a d t h e a t t e n t io n t o p e r c u s t o m e r c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s t r ia l c o n s u m p t io n o f

e le c t r ic it y a c r o s s U S S t a t e s . T h e p e r io d o f o b s e rv a t io n a n d t h e a d o p t e d e s t im a t io n m e t h o d o lo g y

a r e t h e s a m e a s in C e b u la ( 2 0 1 0 , 2 0 1 2 ). P e r c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s t r ia l c u s t o m e r e le c t r ic it y

c o n s u m p t io n t u r n s o u t t o b e a n in c r e a s in g f u n c t io n o f t h e a n n u a l n u m b e r o f c o o lin g d e g r e e d a y s ,

p e r c a p it a r e a l d is p o s a b le in c o m e a n d t h e p e a k s u m m e r e le c t r ic it y g e n e r a t in g c a p a c it y .

C o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s t r ia l c u s t o m e r e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n in s t e a d d e c r e a s e s w it h t h e a v e r a g e

r e a l u n it p r ic e o f e le c t r ic it y t o c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s t r ia l e n t e r p r is e s a n d t h e d e g r e e o f e a c h s t a t e 's

c o m m it m e n t t o e n e r g y e f f ic ie n c y p r o g r a m m e s . A s a c o n s e q u e n c e p u b lic p o lic ie s t o p r o m o t e

e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y h a v e t h e c h a n c e t o r e d u c e c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s t r ia l e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n .

O n e s t u d y t h a t c o n s id e r s n o n ‡U S d a t a is In g le s i‡ L o t z a n d B lig n a u t (2 0 1 2 ). T h e y f o c u s o n S o u t h

A f r ic a a n d t h e y f in d t h a t in c r e a s e s in e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y a f f e c t e d o n ly p a rt o f t h e e c o n o m y a n d

t h e y c o u ld n o t o f f s e t t h e in c r e a s e in e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n d r iv e n b y o u t p u t g r o w t h a n d

s t r u c t u r a l c h a n g e f r o m 1 9 9 3 t o 2 0 0 6 .

A ll in a ll it is s a f e t o c o n c lu d e t h a t t h e r e le v a n t lit e r a t u r e m a in ly f o c u s e d o n t h e U S a n d o n a c o a r s e

le v e l o f d is a g g r e g a t io n . In f a c e o f t h e r e c e n t d e v e lo p m e n t s o f e n e r g y p o lic y , t h is is d is a p p o in t in g .

W e a im a t f illin g t h e s e g a p in t h e n e x t s e c t io n s o f t h is st u d y .

W e c o m p u t e e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it ie s d iff e r e n t ly f o r p r o d u c t iv e a n d r e s id e n t ia l a c t iv it ie s . In t h e f ir st

c a s e , w e s t a rt c o n s id e r in g t h e r a t io s b e t w e e n e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n a n d , f ir s t , G D P a n d , t h e n , f o r

t h e s a k e o f r o b u s t n e s s , v a lu e a d d e d a t b a s e p r ic e s f o r t h e w h o le e c o n o m y . It is f u rt h e r p o s s ib le

t h e n t o b r e a k d o w n t h e r a t io b e t w e e n e le c t r ic it y a n d v a lu e a d d e d f o r a g r ic u lt u r a l, in d u st r y a n d

h e a d , s im ila r ly t o , f o r in st a n c e , H o r o w it z (2 0 0 7 ) a n d L id d le ( 2 0 0 9 ) .

T h e d a t a o n e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n c a n b e d o w n lo a d e d f r o m t h e w e b s it e o f t h e It a lia n e n e r g y

t r a n s m is s io n g r id o p e r a t o r , T e r n a S .p .a . ( h t t p :/ / w w w .t e r n a .it / d e f a u lt / h o m e _ e n / e le c t r ic _ s y st e m /

s t a t is t ic a l_ d a t a .a s p x ). T h e d a t a o n G D P , v a lu e a d d e d a n d p o p u la t io n a r e f r o m t h e r e g io n a l

a c c o u n t s a n d d e m o g r a p h ic s t a t is t ic s p r o d u c e d b y t h e It a lia n n a t io n a l s t a t is t ic a l o f f ic e ( IS T A T ) a n d

t h e y a r e a v a ila b le f r o m it s w e b s it e . E le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n is m e a s u r e d in G W h , w h ile G D P a n d

v a lu e a d d e d in m illio n s o f 2 0 0 0 E u r o s .

U n d e r a m e t h o d o lo g ic a l p o in t o f v ie w w e p a rt ly b u ild o n L id d le ( 2 0 0 9 ) , b u t w e g iv e m o r e w e ig h t t o

a s s e s s in g t h e s t a t is t ic a l s ig n if ic a n c e o f o u r r e s u lt s . T h e r e f o r e , w e d o n o t o n ly t r a c k t h e c h a n g e o f

t h e c o e f f ic ie n t o f v a r ia t io n , K , a c r o s s r e g io n s o v e r t im e , b u t w e a ls o c o m p u t e it s 9 5 % c o n f id e n c e

in t e rv a l,

N^{, b y m a k in g u s e o f t h e f o r m u la p r o p o s e d b y V a n g e l (1 9 9 6 )}

Õ Õ Ö Ô Ä Ä

Å

? Ã N

2 1

, t K t K

( 1 )

w h e r e

1

2 025 . 0 , 1

1 ? ^/ /

t

e

ⁿ n

,

1

2 975 . 0 , 1

2 ? ^/ /

t

e

ⁿ n

, n is t h e n u m b e r o f o b s e rv a t io n s a n d e

⁴

^{d e n o t e s t h e c h iÉ}

s q u a r e d d is t r ib u t io n . W e in t e r p r e t a d e c r e a s e in t h e p o in t e s t im a t e s o f t h e c o e f f ic ie n t o f v a r ia t io n

a s s ig n o f c o n v e r g e n c e o n ly if t h e y f a ll o u t s id e t h e 9 5 % c o n f id e n c e in t e rv a l o f t h e f ir st p e r io d o f

o b s e r v a t io n .

A s a s e c o n d st e p t o a s s e s s c o n v e r g e n c e o f r e g io n a l e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it ie s a n d r e s id e n t ia l

c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d w e im p le m e n t K o lm o g o r o v É S m ir n o v t e st s o f t h e d is t r ib u t io n s o f t h e ir

d e m e a n e d v a lu e s in 2 0 0 0 a n d in 2 0 0 7 . W e c o n s id e r t h e s e s p e c if ic y e a r s t o c o n t r o l f o r p o s s ib le

d if f e r e n c e s in t h e s e d is t r ib u t io n s o n ly if t e s t s r e j e c t t h e n u ll o f t h e ir e q u a lit y .

F o llo w in g B o y le a n d M c C a rt h y (1 9 9 7 ) , L id d le ( 2 0 0 9 ) a ls o p r o p o s e s t o c h e c k w h e t h e r t h e r a n k s o f

t h e u n it s o f o b s e rv a t io n c h a n g e o v e r t im e , b y s t u d y in g a n in d e x o f r a n k c o n c o r d a n c e t h a t r a n g e s

f r o m z e r o t o o n e

] _

] ^{( 2 * ) it AR ( I )} _i ⁽ ₀ _ ^{) i 0}

Variance

I AR I

AR

Variance

-

i

?

( 2 )

w h e r e

I it

AR ) (

^{is t h e r a n k o f r e g io n i's e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y in y e a r t a n d}

AR ( I ) _{i 0}

^{is t h e r a n k o f}

r e g io n i's e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y in t h e in it ia l y e a r o f o b s e rv a t io n .

W e f u rt h e r t e s t f o r c o n v e r g e n c e b y r e s o rt in g t o p a n e l d a t a e c o n o m e t r ic s . W e r e g r e s s t h e lo g o f

r e g io n a l in t e n s it y o n r e g io n s p e c if ic c o n s t a n t s a n d t im e t r e n d s . In o t h e r w o r d s , w e a d o p t a n

u n p o o le d f ix e d e f f e c t s e s t im a t o r . W e a ls o c h e c k f o r b o t h s e r ia l a n d c r o s s ù r e g io n c o r r e la t io n t h a n k s

r e s p e c t iv e ly t o t h e D u r b in W a t s o n (D W ) st a t is t ic p r o p o s e d b y B h a r g a v a e t a l. ( 1 9 8 2 ) a n d a

B r e u s c h ù P a g a n t e s t f o r in d e p e n d e n t e q u a t io n s . W e f in a lly r u n a n F ùt e s t f o r p o o la b ilit y o f t h e

r e g io n s p e c if ic c o e f f ic ie n t s , w h ic h , if n o t r e je c t e d , w ill im p ly t h a t It a lia n r e g io n a l e le c t r ic it y

in t e n s it ie s w e r e c o n v e r g in g t o w a r d s t h e s a m e t im e p a t h d u r in g t h e p e r io d o f o b s e rv a t io n .

W e n e x t m o v e b e y o n d t h e m e t h o d s u s e d b y L id d le (2 0 0 9 ) t o p e rf o r m a s h if t ù s h a r e a n a ly s is o n t h e

f o o t s t e p s o f E st e b a n (2 0 0 0 ). O u r a im h e r e is t o d is e n t a n g le w h e t h e r r e g io n a l d iff e r e n c e s in

e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y a r e d u e t o t h e ir in d u s t ry m ix , t o r e g io n ù s p e c if ic in t e n s it y d if f e r e n t ia ls o r t o a n

a llo c a t iv e c o m p o n e n t ù w h ic h g iv e s a n in d ic a t io n a b o u t t h e e f f ic ie n c y o f a r e g io n in a llo c a t in g

r e s o u r c e s a c r o s s d if f e r e n t in d u st r ia l s e c t o r s . S p e c if ic a lly , E s t e b a n ( 2 0 0 0 ) s h o w s t h a t

x i -x

⁼ oⁱ⁺ rⁱ⁺ c^{i ( 3 )}

w h e r e

x i -x

^{is t h e d if f e r e n t ia l o f e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y in r e g io n i w it h r e s p e c t t o it s n a t io n a l v a lu e ,}

* +

 ^/

?

j

j j j i

i p p x

o ^{is t h e in d u s t r y $m ix c o m p o n e n t ,}

^? _Â * ^/ +

j

j j j i

i x x p

r ^{is t h e r e g io n $ w id e}

in t e n s it y d iff e r e n t ia l c o m p o n e n t ,

* +* + _Â ^{/ / ?}

j

j j i j j i

i x x p p

c ^{is t h e a llo c a t iv e c o m p o n e n t , j is a n}

in d u s t ry in d e x ,

j

p

^{is t h e s h a r e o f in d u s t ry j in t o t a l o u t p u t a t t h e n a t io n a l le v e l, w h ile}

p _i ^j

^{r e f e r s t o}

r e g io n i. F in a lly

j

x i

^{is e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y in in d u st ry j in r e g io n i. T h e in d u s t ry m ix c o m p o n e n t is}

o b t a in e d b y k e e p in g e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y f ix e d a t it s n a t io n a l le v e l. V ic e v e r s a in t h e r e g io n 4w id e

in t e n s it y d iff e r e n t ia l c o m p o n e n t , t h e in d u s t r ia l s t r u c t u r e is k e p t e q u a l t o t h e n a t io n a l o n e . T h e

a llo c a t iv e c o m p o n e n t , in s t e a d , o ff e r s a m e a s u r e o f t h e t e n d e n c y o f r e g io n 4w id e in t e n s it y

d if f e r e n t ia ls a n d in d u st ry m ix e ff e c t s t o g o h a n d in h a n d . B y m a k in g u s e o f b a s ic s t a t ist ic s , o n e c a n

d e c o m p o s e t h e v a r ia n c e o f x i$x in t h e v a r ia n c e s a n d c o v a r ia n c e s o f it s c o m p o n e n t s .

W e a ls o d o u b le 4c h e c k o u r r e s u lt s b y c o m p a r in g t h e e x p la n a t o ry p o w e r o f t h r e e e c o n o m e t r ic

m o d e ls

x _i -x

^{= a}

_o

^{+ b}

_o

oⁱ⁺ g

o

^,i

" " " " " "

*6+

x _i -x

^{= a}

_r

^{+ b}

_r

rⁱ⁺ g

r

^,i

" " " " " "

*7+

x i -x

^{= a}

c

^{+ b}

c

cⁱ⁺ g

c

^,i

" " " " " "

*8+

w h e r e a k , b k f o r k = o.r.c"^{a r e c o e f f ic ie n t s t o b e e s t im a t e d a n d} g"^{d e n o t e s e r r o r s . T h e s e la s t t w o}

a n a ly s e s a r e c a r r ie d o u t f o r e a c h y e a r o f o b s e rv a t io n .

F ig u r e 1 s h o w s t h a t a ll o u r e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y m e a s u r e s t r e n d e d u p w a r d o v e r t h e p e r io d o f

o b s e r v a t io n in It a ly . T h is is p a rt ic u la r ly w o r ry in g b e c a u s e It a ly is a n e t im p o rt e r o f e n e r g y ,

e le c t r ic it y g e n e r a t io n is t h e f ir s t s o u r c e o f C O 2 e m is s io n s a n d b e c a u s e it w a s c o m m o n t o a ll t h e

s e rv ic e s a c t iv it ie s , b u t it is a ls o t r u e t h a t it w a s lo w e r t h e r e in 1 9 9 7 2 . T h e s e w o r ry in g t r e n d s s t r e s s

t h e im p o rt a n c e o f t h e o b je c t o f o u r r e s e a r c h .

C o n s id e r in g t h e c o e ff ic ie n t o f v a r ia t io n o f o u r e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y m e a s u r e s , t h e r e a p p e a r s a n

im p r e s s iv e la c k o f c o n v e r g e n c e a m o n g It a lia n r e g io n s (F ig u r e 2 ) . O n ly f o r s e rv ic e s a c t iv it ie s it

m a r g in a lly f a lls b e lo w t h e 9 5 % c o n f id e n c e in t e rv a l o f t h e f ir s t y e a r o f o b s e rv a t io n . In m o s t o f t h e

c a s e s , t h e r e d o e s n o t e v e n a p p e a r a d o w n w a r d t r e n d in t h e p o in t e s t im a t e s . A s im ila r s c le r o s is o f

t h e d is t r ib u t io n o f r e g io n a l e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y c a n b e d e t e c t e d st u d y in g t h e

i ^{c o e f f ic ie n t , w h ic h}

d o e s n o t f a ll b y a g r e a t e x t e n t b e t w e e n 1 9 9 7 a n d 2 0 0 7 (F ig u r e 3 ).

In a d d it io n , t h e K o lm o g o r o v sS m ir n o v t e s t a lw a y s a c c e p t s t h e n u ll o f e q u a lit y o f d is t r ib u t io n

f u n c t io n s in 2 0 0 0 a n d 2 0 0 7 , r e t u r n in g a p sv a lu e o f 0 .9 7 f o r a ll e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y m e a s u r e s e x c e p t

f o r s e rv ic e s a c t iv it ie s , f o r w h ic h t h e p sv a lu e w a s 0 .7 5 . F o r e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d t h e p s

v a lu e o f t h e t e s t w a s 0 .5 7 3 .

R e g r e s s in g t h e lo g o f e it h e r e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y o r e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d o n r e g io n s

s p e c if ic t im e t r e n d s le a d s t o s im ila r c o n c lu s io n s (T a b le s 1 a n d 2 ) . F ir s t , t h e B r e u s c h sP a g a n t e st f o r

in d e p e n d e n t e q u a t io n s d o e s n o t r e j e c t t h e n u ll o f in d e p e n d e n c e . A ll t h e p sv a lu e s a r e 1 a n d t h e c h i

s q u a r e s w it h 1 9 0 d e g r e e s o f f r e e d o m a r e a ll e q u a l t o 0 . D W s t a t is t ic s a r e a ll s a f e ly b e lo w t h e

c r it ic a l v a lu e s r e p o rt e d f o r a s im ila r s a m p le s iz e t o o u r s in B h a r g a v a e t a l. ( 1 9 8 2 )4 . T h e F st e st f o r

p o o la b ilit y s t r o n g ly r e je c t s t h e n u ll o f e q u a lit y o f t h e c o e ff ic ie n t s . It a p p e a r s t h e r e f o r e c le a r t h a t

r e g io n a l e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it ie s a n d c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d w e r e o n s t a t is t ic a lly d if f e r e n t p a t h s ,

2 It w a s e q u a lto 0 .1 5 G W h p e r m illio n o f E u ro s in 2 0 0 0 p r ic e s in a g ric u lt u ra l a c t iv it ie s , 0 .4 6 in in d u s t ria la c t iv it ie s a n d

0 .0 8 in s e rv ic e s . R e s id e n t ia l e le c t ric ity c o n s u m p t io n w a s e q u a lto 1 .0 3 M W h p e r h e a d .

3 It w a s p o s s ib le to o b ta in s im ila r re s u lts ru n n in g a K ru s k a l©W a llis t e s t fo r t h e e q u a lity o f t h e p o p u la t io n s f ro m w h ic h

s a m p le s a re e x t ra c t e d . T h e p ©v a lu e s w e re 0 .9 8 fo r e le c t ric ity c o n s u m p t io n o v e r G D P , 0 .9 6 fo r e le c t ric ity c o n s u m p t io n

o v e r v a lu e a d d e d , 0 .9 3 fo r e le c t ric ity in t e n s ity in a g r ic u lt u ra l a c t iv it ie s, 0 .9 6 fo r e le c t ric ity in t e n s ity in in d u st ria l

a c t iv it ie s, 0 .7 4 fo r s e rv ic e s , a n d 0 .8 9 fo r re s id e n t ia l e le c t ric ity c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d .

d a t a a s it s R 2 is e q u a l t o 0 .9 9 f o r a ll t h e c a s e s c o n s id e r e d in T a b le s 1 a n d 2 .

B y p r o je c t in g e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y a n d r e s id e n t ia l e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d o n a m a p o f t h e

2 0 It a lia n N U T S 2 r e g io n s , o n e c a n n o t f in d a s im p le N o rt h ÜS o u t h d iv id e a n d t h e e m e r g in g p a t t e r n

c h a n g e s c o n s id e r in g a g r ic u lt u r e , in d u st ry a n d s e rv ic e s s e p a r a t e ly (F ig u r e s 4 a n d 5 ) . T h e r e f o r e

t h e s e v a r ia b le s d o n o t s im p ly r e f le c t t h e e it h e r d u a lis t ic o r t r ia d ic n a t u r e o f t h e It a lia n e c o n o m y

t h a t w a s e x t e n s iv e ly in v e s t ig a t e d in t h e r e le v a n t p a s t lit e r a t u r e ( s e e , f o r in s t a n c e , B a g n a s c o , 1 9 7 7

a n d M a u r o , 2 0 0 4 ) .

It is t h e r e f o r e in t e r e s t in g t o u n d e r s t a n d w h e t h e r t h is p a t t e r n is d u e t o t h e in d u s t ry m ix e s o f t h e

r e g io n s , t o r e g io n Üw id e in t e n s it y e ff e c t s o r t o a llo c a t iv e f a c t o r s . T h e s h if t Ü s h a r e a n a ly s is a f t e r

E s t e b a n ( 2 0 0 0 ) p r o v id e s v e ry s t a b le r e s u lt s a c r o s s t im e (T a b le 3 ) . T h e b u lk o f t h e v a r ia n c e o f

r e g io n a l e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y d if f e r e n t ia ls c a n b e a t t r ib u t e d t o r e g io n Ü w id e in t e n s it y e f f e c t s , w h ic h

h o w e v e r t e n d t o b e o f f s e t b y t h e ir n e g a t iv e c o r r e la t io n w it h a llo c a t iv e f a c t o r s . In o t h e r t e r m s , t h e

in d u s t ry m ix t e n d s t o p la y a m in o r r o le h o ld in g e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y e f f e c t s f ix e d . R e g io n s w it h h ig h

e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y t e n d t o h a v e t h is f e a t u r e in a g r ic u lt u r a l, in d u s t ry a n d s e rv ic e a c t iv it ie s .

H o w e v e r , t h is t r e n d is m it ig a t e d b y t h e f a c t t h a t r e g io n s w it h h ig h e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y a r e b e t t e r

a b le t o a llo c a t e r e s o u r c e s a c r o s s d if f e r e n t s e c t o r s . T h e s e r e s u lt s a r e c o n f ir m e d b y e s t im a t in g

e q u a t io n s (4 ) , (5 ) a n d (6 ) . T a b le 4 s h o w s t h a t t h e h ig h e s t R 2 c a n b e o b t a in e d f o r e q u a t io n s ( 4 ) a n d

( 5 ). H o w e v e r , t h e p o in t e s t im a t e s o f b

r

^{is p o s it iv e a n d s ig n if ic a n t a n d t h e o n e o f b}

c

^{is n e g a t iv e a n d}

s ig n if ic a n t .

T h e p r e s e n t p a p e r a n a ly s e s t h e d y n a m ic s o f r e g io n a l e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it ie s a n d e le c t r ic it y

c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d in It a ly f r o m 1 9 9 7 t o 2 0 0 7 a n d it r e a c h e s a n u m b e r o f d if f e r e n t r e s u lt s . F ir s t

o b s e r v a t io n , w h ic h is n o t a n e g lig ib le g r o w t h r a t e . S e c o n d , t h e d is t r ib u t io n o f r e g io n a l in t e n s it ie s

d is p la y e d a c o n s id e r a b le s t a b ilit y o v e r t im e . T h ir d , it is n o t p o s s ib le t o s u m m a r iz e t h e r e g io n a l

d iff e r e n c e s e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it ie s b y m a k in g r e f e r e n c e t o s im p le g e o g r a p h ic p a rt it io n s p r o p o s e d in

t h e p a st f o r t h e It a lia n e c o n o m y . A s h if t  s h a r e a n a ly s is d o w n p la y s t h e r o le o f t h e in d u s t ry m ix a n d

s t r e s s e s t h e o n e o f r e g io n  w id e e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y d if f e r e n t ia ls .

T h is la s t r e s u lt is e v e n m o r e im p o rt a n t c o n s id e r in g t h a t f a c t o r s t h a t c a n h a v e a lo n g t e r m im p a c t

o n e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y  s u c h a s t h o s e h ig h lig h t e d b y C o r n illie a n d F a n k h a u s e r ( 2 0 0 4 ) a n d lis t e d

a b o v e in o u r lit e r a t u r e r e v ie w  c a n d is p la y le s s v a r ia b ilit y a c r o s s r e g io n s t h a n a c r o s s c o u n t r ie s .

A ll o f t h is le a d s t o c o n c lu d e t h a t t h e r e c e n t a t t e n t io n o f p o lic y m a k e r s o n t h e r e g io n a l le v e l in t h e

t r a n s it io n t o w a r d s a lo w  c a r b o n e c o n o m y is w e ll s u it e d . If r e g io n a l d is p a r it ie s in e le c t r ic it y

in t e n s it ie s a r e s o s t u b b o r n , t h e r e g io n a l le v e l is a n a p p r o p r ia t e o n e w h e r e t o in t e rv e n e , a ll t h e

m o r e t h a t r e g io n a l in d u s t ry m ix e s o n ly a p p e a r t o h a v e a m in o r r o le .

E le c t r ic it y g e n e r a t io n is o n e o f t h e m a in s o u r c e s o f C O 2 e m is s io n s b e c a u s e it m a in ly r e lie s o n f o s s il

f u e ls . T h e f a c t t h a t e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y a n d r e s id e n t ia l e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d t r e n d e d

u p w a r d d u r in g t h e p e r io d o f o b s e rv a t io n s t r e s s e s t h e n e e d t o p r o m o t e m o r e e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y a n d

r e n e w a b le e n e r g y g e n e r a t io n t o r e d u c e e m is s io n s .

E n e r g y e f f ic ie n c y m e a s u r e s c a n a s s u m e d if f e r e n t f o r m s , s u c h a s r e b a t e s o n e n e r g y e f f ic ie n t

a p p lia n c e s o r e f f ic ie n t a ir c o n d it io n e r s ; t a x c r e d it s o n in s t a llin g e f f ic ie n t w in d o w s o r u p g r a d in g

b u ild in g s h e lls ; e d u c a t io n a n d t r a in in g p r o g r a m s o f f e r e d b y u t ilit ie s , s u c h a s s u b s id iz e d c o n t r a c t o r

t r a in in g o n t h e m o s t s u it a b le in st a lla t io n o f e n e r g y e f f ic ie n t m e a s u r e s (L im e r ic k a n d G e lle r , 2 0 0 7 ,

B e r ry 2 0 0 8 ).

g r e e n g r o w t h o n t h e b a s is o f v a r io u s r e g io n a l c a s e s t u d ie s . A p illa r o f t h is s t r a t e g y is s u p p o rt in g

t h e d if f u s io n o f s u s t a in a b le t e c h n o lo g ie s , p r a c t ic e s a n d p r o c e s s e s , t h a n k s t o a s t r e n g t h e n e d

c o lla b o r a t io n b e t w e e n f ir m s , g o v e r n m e n t , c o u n c ils a n d h o u s e h o ld s a t t h e lo c a l le v e l. L o c a l

p la n n in g s h o u ld a ls o f o c u s o n g r e e n is s u e s e s p e c ia lly r e g a r d in g t h e r e g u la t o ry p o w e r o f lo c a l

a u t h o r it ie s b o t h o n t h e c o n s t r u c t io n in d u s t ry a n d o n st a n d a r d s f o r e n e r g y u s e . It is n e c e s s a ry n o t

t o n e g le c t t h a t p u b lic p o lic ie s t o b e e f f e c t iv e n e e d s t o b e c o h e r e n t a n d b a s e d o n a a u t h o r it a t iv e

b u t n o t a u t h o r it a r ia n le a d e r s h ip , a b le t o p r o m o t e p a rt n e r s h ip s b e t w e e n g o v e r n m e n t , in d u s t r ie s

a n d c o m m u n it ie s (W ü s t e n h a g e n e t a l., 2 0 0 7 ) . S u c h p a rt n e r s h ip s c a n a ls o h e lp t o o v e r c o m e t h e

f in a n c ia l c o n s t r a in t s o ft e n h a m p e r in g t h e m a j o r in v e s t m e n t s n e e d e d f o r a t r a n s it io n t o a lo w @

c a r b o n e c o n o m y in t e r m s o f in f r a st r u c t u r e s , t e c h n o lo g y a n d h u m a n c a p it a l a c c u m u la t io n .

A ld y , J ., 2 0 0 6 , P e r c a p it a c a r b o n d io x id e e m is s io n s : c o n v e r g e n c e o r d iv e r g e n c e ? E n v ir o n m e n t a l

a n d R e s o u r c e E c o n o m ic s , 3 3 , 5 3 3 @5 5 5 .

A ld y , J o s e p h E ., 2 0 0 7 , D iv e r g e n c e in S t a t e @ L e v e l p e r C a p it a C a r b o n D io x id e E m is s io n s , L a n d

E c o n o m ic s , 8 3 , 3 5 3 @ 3 6 9 .

A r o o n r u e n g s a w a t A n in , M a x im ilia n A u ff h a m m e r , a n d A la n H . S a n s t a d , 2 0 1 2 . " T h e Im p a c t o f S t a t e

L e v e l B u ild in g C o d e s o n R e s id e n t ia l E le c t r ic it y C o n s u m p t io n ," T h e E n e r g y J o u r n a l, In t e r n a t io n a l

A s s o c ia t io n f o r E n e r g y E c o n o m ic s , v o l. 0 (N u m b e r 1 ) .

A s s e m b ly o f E u r o p e a n R e g io n s ( 2 0 1 0 ) , S u s t a in a b le e n e r g y p o lic ie s in E u r o p e a n R e g io n s , A s s e m b ly

o f E u r o p e a n R e g io n s , C o m m it t e e o n E c o n o m y a n d R e g io n a l D e v e lo p m e n t , S t r a s b o u r g , A p r il 2 0 1 0 ,

h t t p :/ / w w w .a e r .e u / f ile a d m in / u s e r_ u p lo a d / M a in Is s u e s / E n e r g y / f in a l@E T U D E @ E N .p d f

B a g n a s c o , A . ( 1 9 7 7 ) , T r e It a lie [T h r e e It a lie s ] , Il M u lin o , B o lo g n a .

E c o n o m ic s , 1 0 6 , 4 0 7 ‡ 4 4 3 .

0; ｷ;ﾐWﾉﾉｷが"Eく"ふヲヰヰヶぶが"];" ﾗﾉｷ ｷI;"WﾐW ｪW ｷI;"SWﾉﾉげ⁄ﾐｷﾗﾐW"; ﾗ W;"W"ﾉ;" ｷ ; ｷﾗﾐW"SWﾉﾉげN ;ﾉｷ;が"];"

c o m u n it à in t e r n a z io n a le , 6 1 , p p . 4 4 3 ‡4 6 8 .

B e r r y , D a v id (2 0 0 8 ) T h e im p a c t o f e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y p r o g r a m s o n t h e g r o w t h o f e le c t r ic it y s a le s ,

E n e r g y P o lic y , V o lu m e 3 6 , Is s u e 9 , S e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , P a g e s 3 6 2 0 ‡ 3 6 2 5 , IS S N 0 3 0 1 ‡ 4 2 1 5 ,

1 0 .1 0 1 6 / j.e n p o l.2 0 0 8 .0 6 .0 1 1 .

B h a r g a v a , A ., L . F r a n z in i, a n d W . N a r e n d r a n a t h a n . 1 9 8 2 . S e r ia l c o r r e la t io n a n d t h e f ix e d e f f e c t s

m o d e l. R e v ie w o f E c o n o m ic S t u d ie s 4 9 : 5 3 3 ‡5 4 9 .

B o y le , G .E ., M c C a rt h y , T .G ., 1 9 9 7 . A s im p le m e a s u r e o f b e t a ‡ c o n v e r g e n c e . O x f o r d B u lle t in o f

E c o n o m ic s a n d S t a t is t ic s 5 9 ( 2 ), 2 5 7

に^{2 6 4 .}

C e b u la , R ic h a r d (2 0 1 0 ) R e c e n t e v id e n c e o n d e t e r m in a n t s o f p e r r e s id e n t ia l c u s t o m e r e le c t r ic it y

c o n s u m p t io n in t h e U .S . : 2 0 0 1 ‡ 2 0 0 5 , J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m ic s a n d F in a n c e , 1 ‡1 2 ,

h t t p :/ / d x .d o i.o r g / 1 0 .1 0 0 7 / s 1 2 1 9 7 ‡0 1 0 ‡9 1 5 9 ‡2

C e b u la , R ic h a r d (2 0 1 2 ) U S r e s id e n t ia l e le c t r ic it y c o n s u m p t io n : t h e e f f e c t o f s t a t e s ' p u r s u it o f

e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y p o lic ie s , A p p lie d E c o n o m ic s L e t t e r s , 1 9 , 1 4 9 9 ‡1 5 0 3 .

C e b u la R ic h a r d J . ( 2 0 1 3 ) , D e t e r m in a n t s o f p e r c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s t r ia l c u s t o m e r e le c t r ic it y

c o n s u m p t io n in t h e U n it e d S t a t e s f o r t h e p e r io d 2 0 0 1 t o 2 0 0 5 , A p p lie d E c o n o m ic s L e t t e r s , 2 0 , 1 1 4 ‡

1 1 8 .

C le v e la n d , C ., C o s t a n z a , R ., H a ll, C ., K a u f m a n n , R ., 1 9 8 4 . E n e r g y a n d t h e U S e c o n o m y : a b io p h y s ic a l

p e r s p e c t iv e . S c ie n c e 2 2 5 , 8 8 0

に^{8 8 9 .}

s u i c a m b ia m e n t i c lim a t ic i, E N E A , R o m e .

C o r n illie J a n a n d S a m u e l F a n k h a u s e r (2 0 0 4 ) T h e e n e r g y in t e n s it y o f t r a n s it io n c o u n t r ie s , E n e r g y

E c o n o m ic s 2 6 , 2 8 3

に^{2 9 5 .}

E s t e b a n , J . (2 0 0 0 ), R e g io n a l c o n v e r g e n c e in E u r o p e a n d t h e in d u st ry m ix : a s h if t s h a r e a n a ly s is ,

R e g io n a l S c ie n c e a n d U r b a n E c o n o m ic s , 3 5 3 ç3 6 4 .

E z c u r r a , R ., 2 0 0 7 . D is t r ib u t io n d y n a m ic s o f e n e r g y in t e n s it ie s : a c r o s s ç c o u n t ry a n a ly s is . E n e r g y

P o lic y 3 5 , 5 2 5 4

に^{5 2 5 9 .}

H e r r in g , H . ( 2 0 0 6 ) . " C o n f r o n t in g J e v o n s ' p a r a d o x : d o e s p r o m o t in g e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y s a v e e n e r g y ? " ,

In t e r n a t io n a l A s s o c ia t io n f o r E n e r g y E c o n o m ic s N e w s le t t e r , 1 5 , 1 4 ç1 5 .

H o r o w it z M a rv in J ., 2 0 0 7 . " C h a n g e s in E le c t r ic it y D e m a n d in t h e U n it e d S t a t e s f r o m t h e 1 9 7 0 s t o

2 0 0 3 ," T h e E n e r g y J o u r n a l, In t e r n a t io n a l A s s o c ia t io n f o r E n e r g y E c o n o m ic s , v o l. 2 8 (3 ), p a g e s 9 3 ç

1 2 0 .

H o r o w it z , M a rv in (2 0 0 8 ) " T h e t r o u b le w it h e n e r g y e ff ic ie n c y in d e x e s : la a r it m e t ic n o n e o p in io n e " ,

E n e r g y E f f ic ie n c y , 1 9 9 ç 2 1 0 , 1 , h t t p :/ / d x .d o i.o r g / 1 0 .1 0 0 7 / s 1 2 0 5 3 ç 0 0 8 ç9 0 1 5 ç9 .

IE A , 2 0 1 1 , C O 2 E m is s io n s f r o m F u e l C o m b u s t io n : H ig h lig h t s , In t e r n a t io n a l E n e r g y A g e n c y .

In g le s iç L o t z R o u la

が"Y;ﾏW "dく"0ﾉｷｪﾐ; が"}ﾗ ｴ"#a ｷI;げ "WﾉWI ｷIｷ "Iﾗﾐ ﾏ ｷﾗﾐぎ"#" WI ﾗ ;ﾉ"

d e c o m p o s it io n a n a ly s is , A p p lie d E n e r g y , V o lu m e 8 8 , Is s u e 1 2 , D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 1 , P a g e s 4 7 7 9 ç4 7 8 4 ,

IS S N 0 3 0 6 ç2 6 1 9 , 1 0 .1 0 1 6 / j .a p e n e r g y .2 0 1 1 .0 6 .0 1 8 .

L im e r ic k , P ., G e lle r , H ., 2 0 0 7 . W h a t E v e r y W e s t e r n e r S h o u ld K n o w A b o u t E n e r g y E f f ic ie n c y a n d

C o n s e rv a t io n . B o u ld e r , C O : C e n t e r o f t h e A m e r ic a n W e s t a n d S o u t h w e s t E n e r g y E ff ic ie n c y P r o j e c t .

s u b s t it u t io n a n d t e c h n ic a l c h a n g e . E c o lo g ic a l E c o n o m ic s 6 (1 ) , 3 5

に^{5 6 .}

K le v a s V . & M . A n t in u c c i ( 2 0 0 4 ) In t e g r a t io n o f n a t io n a l a n d r e g io n a l e n e r g y d e v e lo p m e n t

p r o g r a m s in B a lt ic S t a t e s . E n e r g y P o lic y , 3 2 (3 ) , 3 4 5 ) 3 5 5 .

L id d le , B r a n t le y ( 2 0 0 8 ) , E le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y c o n v e r g e n c e in IE A / O E C D c o u n t r ie s : A g g r e g a t e a n d

s e c t o r a l a n a ly s is , E n e r g y P o lic y 3 7 1 4 7 0

に^{1 4 7 8 .}

M a r k a n d y a , A ., P e d r o s o ) G a lin a t o , A ., S t r e im ik ie n e , D ., 2 0 0 6 . E n e r g y in t e n s it y in t r a n s it io n

e c o n o m ie s : is t h e r e c o n v e r g e n c e t o w a r d s t h e E U a v e r a g e ? E n e r g y E c o n o m ic s 2 8 , 1 2 1

に^{1 4 5 .}

M a u r o L u c ia n o , T h e m a c r o e c o n o m ic s o f It a ly : a r e g io n a l p e r s p e c t iv e , J o u r n a l o f P o lic y M o d e lin g ,

V o lu m e 2 6 , Is s u e s 8

に^{9 , D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 4 , P a g e s 9 2 7 )9 4 4 , IS S N 0 1 6 1 ) 8 9 3 8 ,}

1 0 .1 0 1 6 / j.j p o lm o d .2 0 0 4 .0 6 .0 0 1 .

M ie ln ik , O ., G o ld e m b e r g , J ., 2 0 0 0 . C o n v e r g in g t o a c o m m o n p a t t e r n o f e n e r g y u s e in d e v e lo p in g

a n d in d u st r ia liz e d c o u n t r ie s . E n e r g y P o lic y 2 8 , 5 0 3

に^{5 0 8 .}

O E C D )L E E D (2 0 1 2 ), E n a b lin g lo c a l g r e e n g r o w t h , O E C D .

R o m e r o )A v ila , D ., 2 0 0 8 , C o n v e r g e n c e in c a r b o n ) d io x id e e m is s io n s a m o n g in d u s t r ia l c o u n t r ie s

r e v is it e d , E n e r g y E c o n o m ic s , 3 0 , 2 2 6 5 ) 2 2 8 2 .

R o s e n b e r g , N ., 1 9 9 8 . T h e r o le o f e le c t r ic it y in in d u s t r ia l d e v e lo p m e n t . E n e r g y J o u r n a l 1 9 (2 ), 7

に^{2 5 .}

S a ilo r D a v id J . a n d J .R ic a r d o M u ñ o z , S e n s it iv it y o f e le c t r ic it y a n d n a t u r a l g a s c o n s u m p t io n t o

c lim a t e in t h e U .S .A .

ね^{M e t h o d o lo g y a n d r e s u lt s f o r e ig h t s t a t e s , E n e r g y , V o lu m e 2 2 , Is s u e 1 0 ,}

O c t o b e r 1 9 9 7 , P a g e s 9 8 7 ) 9 9 8 , IS S N 0 3 6 0 ) 5 4 4 2 , 1 0 .1 0 1 6 / S 0 3 6 0 )5 4 4 2 (9 7 ) 0 0 0 3 4 )0 .

e m is s io n s : e x p la in in g t h e e n e r g y e c o n o m y lin k . A n n u a l R e v ie w o f E n e r g y a n d E n v ir o n m e n t 2 6 , 4 9

に

8 1

S t r e im ik ie n e , D . e t a l., U s e o f E U st r u c t u r a l f u n d s f o r s u s t a in a b le e n e r g y d e v e lo p m e n t in n e w E U

m e m b e r s t a t e s , R e n e w a b le a n d S u s t a in a b le E n e r g y R e v ie w s , 1 1 ,6 ( 2 0 0 7 ) p p .1 1 6 7 k1 1 8 7 .

V a n g e l, M a r k G . ( 1 9 9 6 ) , C o n f id e n c e In t e rv a ls f o r a N o r m a l C o e ff ic ie n t o f V a r ia t io n , T h e A m e r ic a n

S t a t ist ic ia n , V o l. 5 0 , N o . 1 , p p . 2 1 k2 6 .

V a o n a , A . (2 0 1 2 ), G r a n g e r n o n k c a u s a lit y t e s t s b e t w e e n ( n o n )r e n e w a b le e n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n a n d

o u t p u t in It a ly s in c e 1 8 6 1 : t h e (ir )r e le v a n c e o f s t r u c t u r a l b r e a k s , E n e r g y p o lic y , V o lu m e 4 5 , P a g e s

2 2 6

ｎ^{2 3 6 .}

V e r b r u g g e n , A v ie l ( 2 0 0 6 ) E le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y b a c k s t o p le v e l t o m e e t s u st a in a b le b a c k s t o p s u p p ly

t e c h n o lo g ie s , E n e r g y P o lic y , V o lu m e 3 4 , p p . 1 3 1 0 k1 3 1 7 , 1 0 .1 0 1 6 / j .e n p o l.2 0 0 5 .1 2 .0 0 7 .

W ü s t e n h a g e n , R ., M . W o ls in k , M . J . B u r e r (2 0 0 7 ) S o c ia l a c c e p t a n c e o f r e n e w a b le e n e r g y

in n o v a t io n : A n in t r o d u c t io n t o t h e c o n c e p t , E n e r g y P o lic y 3 5 , 2 6 8 3 k2 6 9 1 .

e le c t ric it y in t e n s ity b y s e c t o r in It a ly , 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 7  d a ta n o rm a liz e d to 1 9 9 7 .

N o t e : in t h is fig u re w e d o n o t c o n s id e r t h e ra tio b e t w e e n e le c t ric ity c o n s u m p t io n a n d v a lu e a d d e d fo r t h e

w h o le e c o n o m y a s it b a s ic a lly o v e r la p s w it h t h e o n e o f e le c t ric it y c o n s u m p io n o v e r G D P .

0 .91

1 .1

1 .2

1 .3

1 .4 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

E le ct ric it y / G D P

R e s id e n t ia l E le ct ric ity / P o p u la t io n

E le ct ric it y / V a lu e A d d e d (A g r ic u lt u r e )

E le ct ric it y / V a lu e A d d e d (In d u st ry )

E le ct ric it y / V a lu e A d d e d (S e rv ic e s )

Ð 2 0 0 7

E le c t ric it y c o n s u m p t io n o v e r v a lu e a d d e d (w h o le

e c o n o m y ) E le c t ric ity c o n s u m p tio n o v e r G D P (w h o le e c o n o m y )

E le c t ric it y in te n s it y Ð A g ric u lt u re E le c t ric it y in t e n s ity Ð In d u s t ry a c tiv it ie s

E le c t ric it y in te n s it y Ð S e rv ic e s R e s id e n t ia l e le c t ric ity c o n s u m p tio n p e r h e a d

N o t e s : c o n t in u o u s lin e s d e n o t e p o in t e s tim a te s a n d d a s h e d lin e s 9 5 % c o n fid e n c e in t e rv a ls c o m p u te d a ft e r

V a n g e l ( 1 9 9 6 ) . D o tt e d lin e s in t h e F ig u re fo r S e rv ic e s d e n o t e t h e 9 5 % p e r c e n t c o n fid e n c e in te rv a l o f t h e

firs t y e a r o f o b s e rv a t io n .

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 20 02 200 3 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 0 .2

0.2 5

0 .3

0.3 5

0 .4

0.4 5 1997 1998 1999 2000 200 1 2002 2003 2004 200 5 2006 2007

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 20 02 200 3 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

0 .7

0 .8 1997 19 98 1999 200 0 2 00 1 200 2 2 003 200 4 2 005 200 6 2 007

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.13

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.2 1

0.23

0.25 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 20 02 200 3 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 0.0 7

0.0 9

0.11

0.13

0.15

0.17

0.19

0.2 1

0.2 3 1997 1998 1999 2000 200 1 2002 2003 2004 200 5 2006 2007

2 0 0 7 E le c t ric it y c o n s u m p t io n o v e r v a lu e a d d e d a n d G D P (w h o le

e c o n o m y )

E le c t ric it y in t e n s ity fo r v a rio u s s e c to rs

R e s id e n t ia l e le c t ric it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d

0 .9 6

0 .9 6 5

0 .9 7

0 .9 7 5

0 .9 8

0 .9 8 5

0 .9 9

0 .9 9 5

1

1 .0 0 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

G a m m a in d ex (valu e ad d ed )

G a m m a in d e x (G D P )

0 .8

0 .8 5

0 .9

0 .9 51

1 .0 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

G a m m a in d ex fo r

in d u stria la ctiv ities

G a m m a in d ex fo r

agricu ltu rala ctivities

G a m m a in d ex fo r

se rvices

0 .9 7

0 .9 7 5

0 .9 8

0 .9 8 5

0 .9 9

0 .9 9 5

1

1 .0 0 5

1 .0 1 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7

W h o le e c o n o m y In d u s t ry

S e rv ic e s A g ric u lt u re

N o t e s : t h e b la c k c o lo r d e n o te s t h e u p p e r 3 3 % o f t h e d is t rib u t io n , t h e g re y o n e t h e m id d le 3 3 % a n d re g io n s

in w h it e a re i n t h e lo w e r 3 3 % . T h e n u m b e r o f re g io n s in e a c h in t e rv a l o f t h e d is t rib u t io n is in p a re n t h e s e s

a n d t h e lim it v a lu e s o f t h e in t e rv a ls in b ra c k e t s .

N o t e s : t h e b la c k c o lo r d e n o te s t h e u p p e r 3 3 % o f t h e d is t rib u t io n , t h e g re y o n e t h e m id d le 3 3 % a n d re g io n s

in w h it e a re i n t h e lo w e r 3 3 % . T h e n u m b e r o f re g io n s i n e a c h in te rv a l o f t h e d is t rib u tio n is in p a re n t h e s e s

a n d t h e lim it v a lu e s o f t h e in t e rv a ls in b ra c k e t s .

M e t h o d : R o b u s t O L S . N u m b e r o f o b s e rv a tio n s : 2 2 0 .

N o te s : t h e D u r b in W a t s o n s t a t is tic is t h e o n e p ro p o s e d b y B h a rg a v a e t a l. ( 1 9 8 2 )

co eff. p äv a lu e co eff. p äv alu e co eff. p äv a lu e co eff. p äv alu e co eff. p äv a lu e co eff. p äv alu e co eff. p äv a lu e co eff. p äv alu e co eff. p äv a lu e co eff. p äv alu e

A b ru zzi î1 .58 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .4 5 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î2 .57 0 .00 0.0 5 0.0 0 î0 .61 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .24 î2 .38 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

B a silicata î1 .61 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î1 .51 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î2 .08 0 .00 0.0 1 0.4 3 î0 .55 0 .00 0.0 3 0 .00 î2 .71 0.00 0.0 5 0 .00

C a la b ria î2 .29 0 .00 0.0 1 0.04 î2 .18 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 3 î2 .30 0 .00 î0.0 3 0.0 0 î1 .09 0 .00 î0.0 3 0 .05 î2 .64 0.00 0.04 0 .00

C a m p an ia î2 .12 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î2 .00 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î2 .39 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î0 .97 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .03 î2 .63 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

E m ilia äR o m ag n a î1 .80 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .69 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .50 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î0 .98 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .01 î2 .4 6 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

Friu liäV en e zia G iu lia î1 .32 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .22 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .90 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î0 .31 0 .00 0.0 2 0 .00 î2 .32 0.00 0.0 2 0 .00

La zio î2 .30 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î2 .19 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .79 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .31 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .00 î2 .57 0.00 0.0 2 0 .00

L

ig u ria î2 .00 0 .00 0.0 0 0.74 î1 .89 0 .00 0.0 0 0.7 7 î2 .91 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î0 .88 0 .00 î0.0 2 0 .00 î2 .36 0.00 0.0 2 0 .00

Lo m b a rd ia î1 .68 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .58 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .76 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î0 .83 0 .00 0.0 0 0 .18 î2 .59 0.00 0.04 0 .00

M arch e î1 .93 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .81 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î2 .22 0 .00 0.0 5 0.0 0 î1 .12 0 .00 0.0 2 0 .00 î2 .4 9 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

M o lise î1 .71 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î1 .60 0 .00 0.0 3 0.0 0 î2 .31 0 .00 0.0 3 0.2 1 î0 .58 0 .00 0.0 3 0 .00 î2 .69 0.00 0.0 5 0 .00

P iem o nte î1 .58 0 .00 0.0 0 0.0 0 î1 .4 7 0 .00 0.0 0 0.0 0 î2 .23 0 .00 0.04 0.0 0 î0 .71 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .00 î2 .52 0.00 0.0 2 0 .00

P ug lia î1 .60 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .4 8 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .73 0 .00 0.0 2 0.1 8 î0 .30 0 .00 0.0 0 0 .23 î2 .64 0.00 0.04 0 .00

S ard eg n a î1 .15 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .02 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .89 0 .00 0.04 0.0 0 0 .44 0 .00 0.0 0 0 .93 î2 .59 0.00 0.0 5 0 .00

S icilia î1 .81 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .68 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î2 .01 0 .00 0.0 2 0.1 0 î0 .4 5 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .05 î2 .59 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

T o scan a î1 .72 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .61 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î2 .06 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î0 .76 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .04 î2 .4 5 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

T re ntin o A lto äA d

ig e î1 .82 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .69 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .60 0 .00 0.0 1 0.2 2 î0 .79 0 .00 0.0 0 0 .94 î2 .34 0.00 0.04 0 .00

U m b ria î1 .30 0 .00 0.0 0 0.2 6 î1 .19 0 .00 0.0 0 0.1 8 î1 .75 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î0 .16 0 .00 0.0 0 0 .36 î2 .54 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

V alle d 'A o sta î1 .63 0 .00 0.0 2 0.0 0 î1 .38 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î2 .4 2 0 .00 0.0 1 0.3 8 î0 .4 1 0 .00 0.0 0 0 .22 î2 .07 0.00 0.0 2 0 .00

V en eto î1 .63 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .52 0 .00 0.0 1 0.0 0 î1 .84 0 .00 0.04 0.0 0 î0 .82 0 .00 0.0 1 0 .06 î2 .4 8 0.00 0.0 3 0 .00

R 2

D W ästatisitc

P o o lab ility

Fp äv a lu e

df1

df2 0 .99 0 .99 0 .99

C o n stant T im e tre n d C o n stant T im e tre n d C o n stant T im e tre n d C o n stant T im e tre n d C o n stant

14 2 2.73 134 8 .20

E le ctricity co n su m ptio n ov e r G D P E lectricity co n su m ptio n ov erv alu e ad d e d E le ctricity inten sity in A g ricu ltu re 1 .4 51 .091 .780.9 70.9 7 T im e tren d

Ele ctricity inten sity in In d u stry E le ctricity inte n sity in Se rv ice s

0.9 9 0.9 9

18 0

38

0.0 0 18 0

38

0.0 0 1 80

38

0 .00

11 0.9 2

18 0

38

0 .00

21 8.0 9 18 0

38

0 .00

92 9.0 2

re g io n s 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 7 .

M e t h o d : R o b u s t O L S . N u m b e r o f o b s e rv a t io n s : 2 2 0 .

c o e ff . p Bv a lu e c o e f f . p B v a lu e

A b ru z z i 6 .7 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0

B a s ilic a t a 6 .5 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0

C a la b ria 6 .8 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0

C a m p a n ia 6 .8 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

E m ilia B R o m a g n a 7 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

F riu liBV e n e z ia G iu lia 6 .9 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

L a z io 7 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

L ig u ria 7 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

L o m b a rd ia 6 .9 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

M a rc h e 6 .8 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

M o lis e 6 .6 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0

P ie m o n t e 6 .9 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

P u g lia 6 .7 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

S a rd e g n a 7 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0

S ic ilia 6 .9 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

T o s c a n a 6 .9 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

T re n tin o A lto BA d ig e 6 .9 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

U m b ria 6 .8 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

V a lle d 'A o s ta 7 .3 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .2 1

V e n e to 6 .9 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0

R 2

D W B s t a t is it c

P o o la b ilit y

Fp B v a lu e

d f 1

d f 2 0 .9 9

R e s id e n tia l e le c t ric it y c o n s u m p t io n p e r h e a d

C o n s ta n t T im e t re n d

1 8 0

0 .0 0

3 8

1 .4 0

3 8 6 .3 4

N o t e s :

o

i

^{is t h e in d u s t r y œ m ix c o m p o n e n t o f e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y ,} r

_i

^{is t h e r e g io n œw id e in t e n s it y d if f e r e n t ia l c o m p o n e n t ,}

c _i

^{is t h e a llo c a t iv e}

c o m p o n e n t o f e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y , x i is e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y in r e g io n i.

v a r( i)/ v a r (x i) v a r( i)/ v a r(x i) v a r( i)/ v a r(x i) 2 c o v ( i, i)/ v a r(x i) 2 c o v ( i, i)/ v a r (x i) 2 c o v ( i, i)/ v a r(x i)

1 9 9 7 0 .1 6 1 .5 6 0 .1 3 Ç 0 .1 2 Ç 0 .7 5 0 .0 3

1 9 9 8 0 .1 8 1 .6 5 0 .1 6 Ç 0 .1 6 Ç 0 .8 8 0 .0 4

1 9 9 9 0 .1 7 1 .7 0 0 .1 7 Ç 0 .1 4 Ç 0 .9 3 0 .0 3

2 0 0 0 0 .1 7 1 .7 3 0 .1 6 Ç 0 .1 4 Ç 0 .9 5 0 .0 3

2 0 0 1 0 .1 6 1 .6 3 0 .1 4 Ç 0 .1 0 Ç 0 .8 4 0 .0 2

2 0 0 2 0 .1 3 1 .3 2 0 .0 7 0 .0 2 Ç 0 .5 2 Ç 0 .0 2

2 0 0 3 0 .1 3 1 .3 2 0 .0 8 0 .0 3 Ç 0 .5 3 Ç 0 .0 2

2 0 0 4 0 .1 3 1 .3 1 0 .0 7 0 .0 2 Ç 0 .5 0 Ç 0 .0 2

2 0 0 5 0 .1 3 1 .3 7 0 .0 8 0 .0 0 Ç 0 .5 6 Ç 0 .0 2

2 0 0 6 0 .1 3 1 .5 8 0 .1 3 Ç 0 .0 6 Ç 0 .7 8 0 .0 1

2 0 0 7 0 .1 3 1 .4 1 0 .0 9 Ç 0 .0 3 Ç 0 .5 9 Ç 0 .0 1

M E A N 0 .1 5 1 .5 0 0 .1 1 Ç 0 .0 6 Ç 0 .7 1 0 .0 1

N o t e : w e f o c u s o n t h e y e a r s 1 9 9 7 , 2 0 0 0 , 2 0 0 3 a n d 2 0 0 6 f o r s a k e o f b r e v it y . R e s u lt s in o t h e r y e a r s a r e v e ry s im ila r t o t h o s e s e t o u t in t h e p r e s e n t

T a b le . T h e n u m b e r o f o b s e r v a t io n s is 2 0 f o r a ll t h e m o d e ls .

o

i

^{is t h e in d u s t r y m ix c o m p o n e n t o f e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y ,} r

_i

^{is t h e r e g io n  w id e}

in t e n s it y d iff e r e n t ia l c o m p o n e n t ,

c i

^{is t h e a llo c a t iv e c o m p o n e n t o f e le c t r ic it y in t e n s it y .}

a b R 2 a b R 2 a b R 2

c o e f f . 0 .0 2 0 .7 0 . 0 .0 1 0 .7 1 0 .0 1 . 1 .8 3

p 3v a lu e 0 .1 4 0 .2 2 0 .5 5 0 .0 0 0 .4 8 0 .0 2

c o e f f . 0 .0 2 0 .6 8 . 0 .0 1 0 .6 8 0 .0 1 . 1 .8 2

p 3v a lu e 0 .2 2 0 .2 3 0 .5 5 0 .0 0 0 .5 9 0 .0 0

c o e f f . 0 .0 2 1 .0 2 . 0 .0 1 0 .8 0 0 .0 1 . 2 .6 7

p 3v a lu e 0 .1 1 0 .1 1 0 .6 6 0 .0 0 0 .1 9 0 .0 0

c o e f f . 0 .0 3 0 .7 9 . 0 .0 1 0 .7 3 0 .0 1 . 2 .0 5

p 3v a lu e 0 .1 2 0 .2 3 0 .7 0 0 .0 0 0 .3 0 0 .0 0

1 9 9 7

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 6 0 .0 3 0 .7 9

0 .8 0

0 .8 5

0 .8 4 0 .4 0

0 .5 2

0 .5 1

0 .5 0

M o d e l M o d e l M o d e l

0 .0 3

0 .0 3

0 .0 9