Appendix A

3.10.1 Country Level Analysis

Generally speaking, Table 3.4 shows a pretty high tendency to peace, although civil war has almost the same probability to remain in war than to move to peace. This latter probability conrms economic literature: if a country is in civil war, it can be trapped into civil war or it can reach peace. It is much more rare to gradually reach peace. Similarly, if a country is peaceful, it is unlikely to experience a war (only 19% probability). This result becomes impressive in the case of political conict, where the likelihood to remain in war is 76% and the likelihood to remain in peace is 88%. Religious conicts, instead, show a completely dierent scenario: if a country is in peace, it has a 63% probability to experience an armed conict, which however, does not break out in a war but remains in a low-prole conict. If, instead, a country is living a civil war for religious purposes, it is trapped into that war, which is a result in line with our current history (where religious conicts are quite widespread in Africa, as well as in the Middle East).

Table 3.36: Count of Overall Transition Probabilitiess at Country Level Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War N

Peace 60.25 20.38 19.38 800

Armed Violence 48.48 33.33 18.18 330

Civil War 43.32 14.99 41.69 367

N.Osservations 801 328 368 1497

As it is clear from tables 3.5 to 3.7, each typology of conict is pretty persistent. This is in line with the economic literature. For instance, we have already seen in the rst chapter (pg.

19) of this dissertation that turbulent countries suer from the so-called Conict Trap. Hence, once a country is in war it faces serious diculty to get out because of several obstacles.

Table 3.37: Count of Transition Probabilitiess at Country Level: Political Conict Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War N

Peace 88.15 10.90 0.95 945

Armed Violence 13.84 82.60 3.56 730

Civil War 8.33 15.97 75.69 144

N.Osservations 946 729 144 1819

Table 3.38: Count of Transition Probabilitiess at Country Level: Religious Conict Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War N

Peace 18.75 62.50 18.75 16

Armed Violence 9.33 88.08 2.59 193

Civil War 10.53 8.77 80.70 57

N.Osservations 27 185 54 266

Table 3.39: Count of Transition Probabilitiess at Country Level: Environmental Conict Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War N

Peace 60.00 40.00 0.00 45

Armed Violence 13.73 81.05 5.23 153

Civil War 6.45 9.68 83.87 62

N.Osservations 20.00 56.92 23.08 260

3.10.2 Ethnic Level Analysis

The following tables present a summary of transitions at ethnic level.

Generally speaking, the transition probabilities do not dier that much from country-level analysis. In fact, as in the previous case, there is an overall tendency to peace even at ethnic level (a little bit more evident in the ethnic level case): if a ethnic group is in peace, it has the same probability (around 16%) to go to armed protests or to civil war. But, if a community is in a violent phase, it is more likely to turn back to peace (almost 50% probability) than to start a war.

One interesting result is what happens when a community is living a civil war. In this case, 34% of communities do not transit and 49% of communities have a transition to peace.

Table 3.40: Overall Count of Transition Probabilities at Ethnic Level Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 67.47 15.72 16.81

Armed Violence 50.53 30.85 18.62

Civil War 49.67 16.59 33.75

Total 60.64 18.74 20.62

Dierences appear when we study in details the dierent roots of conict. For example, the case of religious conict is striking. At country level, we have a tendency to violence. Here, at ethnic level, the tendency is toward peace. If an ethnic group is experiencing an armed conict, it is much more likely to move to peace and remain in peace, than to go to war. At the same time, if an ethnic group has a civil war, it has a 36% probability to remain in war and a 52% to go to peace.

Same situation for the environmental and political case. Excepts for the rst line, in which it seems that when an ethnic group or a country is in peace, both have a very high probability

Table 3.41: Count of Transition Probabilities at Ethnic Level: Religious Conicts Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 72.53 11.48 16.00

Armed Violence 69.39 10.88 19.73

Civil War 60.89 14.22 24.89

N.Osservations 915 155 234

Table 3.42: Count of Transition Probabilities at Ethnic Level: Environmental Conicts Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 66.96 13.64 19.40

Armed Violence 64.93 20.85 14.22

Civil War 52.41 12.05 35.54

N.Osservations 915 207 323

to remain in peace, the other transitions dier a lot. Again, ethnic group are more likely to experience peace, with a small probability of persistence of violence.

Table 3.43: Count of Transition Probabilities at Ethnic Level: Political Conicts Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 68.11 15.09 16.80

Armed Violence 48.76 32.80 18.45

Civil War 46.98 15.20 37.81

N.Osservations 2219 680 800

3.10.3 Non-ethnic Level Analysis

When we count transition probabilities at non-ethnic level (i.e. taking into account organized group not belonging to a specic ethnic group), we observe an overall small tendency to peace, which is more evident in the environmental case (from war there is a 62.50% probability to move to peace). However, the persistence of war is always between 22% and 31%. Clearly, these probabilities are much more smaller compared to the case of country analysis, but at the same time they are more closer to the case of ethnic analysis. Therefore, again, we observe from this rst stage of analysis an evident dierence in results between a macro analysis and a macro-micro analysis.

As we can see from Table 3.12, the overall transition probabilities are similar to the ethnic case.

Table 3.44: Overall Count of Transition Probabilities (non-ethnic) Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 58.30 25.11 16.59

Armed Violence 40.94 37.80 21.26

Civil War 45.10 23.53 31.37

Total 50.44 28.32 21.24

Only the case of religious conicts dier from the ethnic case. In fact, here it seems that non-ethnic groups in peace are equally likely to remain in peace or start to reclaim religious concerns with violence. At the same time, once the armed conict starts, it is more likely to

Table 3.45: Count of Transition Probabilities: Environmental Conicts (non-ethnic) Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 50.00 38.89 11.1

Armed Violence 57.14 14.29 28.57

Civil War 62.50 12.50 25.00

N.Osservations 18 8 6

Table 3.46: Count of Transition Probabilities: Political Conicts (non-ethnic) Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 56.00 26.00 18.00

Armed Violence 41.88 35.04 23.08

Civil War 45.10 23.53 31.37

N.Osservations 207 117 95

occur peace than war and even when a war breaks out, there is a much more bigger probability to reach peace than remain in war.

Table 3.47: Count of Transition Probabilities: Religious Conicts (non-ethnic) Violence Degree Peace Armed Violence Civil War

Peace 40.00 40.00 20.00

Armed Violence 57.14 14.29 28.57

Civil War 55.56 22.22 22.22

N.Osservations 13 7 6

From this rst-step analysis, we infer that when we study in details what specic group do in their territories, we see a bigger tendency to peace than to war. On the contrary, at country level war is more likely to occur.