1. This report has been prepared in response to the requests from COP 21 and CMA 21 for the secretariat to prepare a synthesis report on NDCs submitted by Parties. In view of the postponement from 2020 to 2021 of the United Nations Climate Change Conference to be held in Glasgow and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the preparation of NDCs, the secretariat informed Parties that it will publish two editions of the NDC synthesis report: an initial version by 28 February 2021, and the final version before COP 26.
2. This initial version of the report synthesizes information from the 48 NDCs, representing 75 Parties, submitted as at 31 December 2020 as new or updated NDCs in response to paragraphs 23–24 of decision 1/CP.21, or as new NDCs in case the Party’s INDC was not converted automatically in accordance with paragraph 22 of that decision. The NDCs considered for this report account for about 40 per cent of the Parties to the Paris Agreement and about 30 per cent of the global GHG emissions in 2017.
3. The COP and CMA guidance2 on the information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs was used as a framework for synthesizing the relevant information contained in the communicated NDCs, which was supplemented by the synthesis of other information included in the NDCs but not covered by the guidance. The synthesized information is presented for all the represented Parties taken together.
4. Almost all3Parties provided the information necessary to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of their NDCs in accordance with the COP guidance, with many already applying the relevant further CMA guidance.4
5. All Parties provided information on mitigation targets, in particular for 2025 and/or 2030. The mitigation targets range from economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets to strategies, plans and actions for low-emission development. In their new or updated NDCs:
(a) Almost all Parties provided quantified mitigation targets, expressed as clear numerical targets, while a few included strategies, plans and actions as components of their NDCs for which there is no quantifiable information;
(b) Many Parties have strengthened their commitment to reducing or limiting GHG emissions by 2025 and/or 2030, demonstrating increased ambition to address climate change;
(c) More Parties than previously communicated absolute emission reduction targets, with some moving to economy-wide targets, resulting in most Parties having economy-wide NDCs covering all sectors defined in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines;
(d) Parties have increased the coverage of sectors and GHGs: 99.2 per cent of their total GHG emissions are covered compared with 97.8 per cent for the previous NDCs; and all cover CO2 emissions, almost all cover CH4 and N2O emissions, most cover HFC emissions and many cover PFC, SF6 and NF3 emissions.
6. Almost all Parties communicated an NDC implementation period until 2030, while a few others specified an implementation period until 2025 or 2050. Many Parties identified 1 January 2021 as their starting date for NDC implementation; some others indicated that they started implementing their NDC in or before 2020; and a few Parties will start doing so in 2022.
7. Almost all Parties have updated the basis for defining their targets, including reference points and ‘business as usual’ scenarios. Although such updates lead to higher-quality NDCs, for some Parties they lead to significant changes in the estimated emission levels for 2025 and 2030, for reasons other than changes to target levels.
1 Decision 1/CMA.2, para. 10.
2 Decisions 1/CP.21, para. 27; and 4/CMA.1 and annex I.
3 The following terms are used in this report to indicate the percentage of Parties whose NDCs mention particular information: “a few” for less than 10 per cent; “some” for 10–40 per cent; “many” for 41–
70 per cent; “most” for 71–90 per cent; and “almost all” for more than 90 per cent.
4 As footnote 2 above.
8. Almost all Parties provided information on voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, with the share of Parties stating that they plan to or will possibly use at least one type of voluntary cooperation more than doubling since their previous NDCs. At the same time, many more Parties than previously have set qualitative limits on their use of voluntary cooperation for achieving their mitigation targets.
9. The COVID-19 pandemic was mentioned by many Parties, but most of them have not reflected its potential impacts in their NDCs. The longer-term effects of the related changes in national and global GHG emissions will depend on the duration of the pandemic and the nature and scale of recovery measures.
10. Total GHG emission levels resulting from implementation of the targets communicated in the new or updated NDCs are projected to be around 14.04 Gt CO2 eq in 2025 and around 13.67 Gt CO2 eq in 2030,5 which is about 0.3 per cent (38 Mt CO2 eq) lower for 2025 and about 2.8 per cent (398 Mt CO2 eq) lower for 2030 than the total emission levels according to the Parties’ previous NDCs.6
11. The Parties’ total GHG emissions are, on average, estimated to be:
(a) By 2025, 2.0 per cent higher than the 1990 level (13.77 Gt CO2 eq), 2.2 per cent higher than the 2010 level (13.74 Gt CO2 eq) and 0.5 per cent higher than the 2017 level (13.97 Gt CO2 eq);
(b) By 2030, 0.7 per cent lower than in 1990, 0.5 per cent lower than in 2010 and 2.1 per cent lower than in 2017.
12. Considering implementation of only the unconditional elements of the NDCs, the estimates suggest the possibility of the Parties’ emissions peaking before 2030. Considering full implementation of the NDCs, including the conditional elements, projected emission levels for 2030 are lower than current emission levels, implying the possibility of the Parties’
emissions peaking before 2025 or by 2030 at the latest. The implementation of the most conditional elements depends on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; availability of market-based mechanisms; and absorptive capacity of forests and other ecosystems.
13. According to the SR1.5,7 to be consistent with global emission pathways with no or limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C goal, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to decline by about 45 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. For limiting global warming to below 2 °C, CO2 emissions need to decrease by about 25 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070. Deep reductions are required for non-CO2 emissions as well. Thus, the estimated reductions referred to in paragraphs 10–11 above fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement.8
14. In order to provide a clear picture of the combined contribution of NDCs towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2, and towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement, the final version of the NDC synthesis report will include a comparison of the projected total emission levels
5 The estimated total GHG emissions ranged from 13.69 to 14.39 Gt CO2 eq for 2025 and from 13.13 to 14.21 Gt CO2 eq for 2030. The ranges represent the minimum and maximum values resulting from the targets presented and reflect the results of implementation of the unconditional and conditional elements of the NDCs.
6 Unless otherwise noted, for this report, GHG emission levels exclude emissions from forestry and other land use or LULUCF; and GWP values with a 100-year time-horizon from the AR4 have been used. For NDCs that include estimates of GHG emissions using other GWP values (e.g. from the AR2 or AR4), a conversion has been applied. For further information, including on estimation methods and approaches, see addendum 3 to this document.
7 IPCC. 2018. IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, H-O Pörtner, et al. (eds.). Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.
8 As provided for in Article 4, para. 11, of the Paris Agreement.
resulting from implementation of all NDCs with different mitigation scenarios and indicators assessed by the IPCC, including global emission pathways towards the 1.5 and 2 ºC goals.
Providing such information in this initial report was not possible because of the limited number of the NDCs included in the report.
15. According to the new or updated NDCs, per capita GHG emissions are estimated at 6.52 t CO2 eq in 2025 and 6.19 t CO2 eq in 2030, which is 4.7 per cent lower in 2025 and 9.6 per cent lower in 2030 than in 2017.
16. Many Parties provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets for up to and beyond 2050, referring to climate neutrality, carbon neutrality, GHG neutrality or net zero emissions. Mindful of the inherent uncertainty of such long-term estimates, the information indicates that:
(a) The Parties’ collective GHG emission level could be 87–93 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2017;
(b) Their annual per capita emissions are estimated at 0.5–1.0 t CO2 eq for 2050, which is 87–93 per cent lower than for 2017, suggesting that by 2050 these per capita emissions will be within the range implied in the 2 ºC and 1.5 ºC with low overshoot scenarios in the SR1.5.
17. Most Parties explained their approach to NDC preparation and implementation. Some linked their NDCs to their commitment to transitioning to a sustainable and/or low-carbon and resilient economy, taking into account social, environmental and economic factors as well as the SDGs. Many indicated that they have integrated their NDC targets, goals and policies into national legislative, regulatory and planning processes as a means of ensuring implementation.
18. Most Parties highlighted policy coherence and synergies between their mitigation measures9 and development priorities, which include LT-LEDS, the SDGs and, for some, green recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
19. Most Parties referred to formal arrangements in place for stakeholder consultation.
Almost all of them indicated that they conducted consultations and engagement in an inclusive and participatory manner, with some Parties specifically referencing gender-sensitive consultations.
20. Parties are increasingly10 recognizing gender integration as a means to enhance the ambition and effectiveness of their climate action. Most Parties referred to gender in the NDCs and to relevant policies and legislation, or affirmed a general commitment to gender equality. Of the Parties that referenced gender in their previous NDCs, many elaborated more on the topic in their new or updated NDCs. Some included information on how gender had been or was planned to be mainstreamed in NDC implementation.
21. Almost all Parties provided information on using one or more ACE elements to promote implementation of mitigation and adaptation activities, and communicated more clearly and in more detail on general principles, past achievements, future commitments, and needs and gaps in relation to ACE.
22. Some Parties described the role of local communities and the role, situation and rights of indigenous peoples in the context of their NDCs, emphasizing the vulnerabilities of indigenous peoples that are particular to their circumstances.
23. Many Parties included an adaptation component in their NDCs, some of which were designated as adaptation communications. They provided information on vulnerabilities;
adaptation measures, including sectoral actions; contingency measures; and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation.
9 In this report, (domestic) mitigation measures refers to specific policies and actions that contribute to mitigation, including adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits.
10 The share of Parties that referred to gender and consider it a cross-cutting issue in the new or updated NDCs has increased significantly since their previous NDCs.
24. In comparison with the previous NDCs, the adaptation components indicate increased focus on adaptation planning, in particular on NAPs, and include more time-bound quantitative adaptation targets as well as the associated indicator frameworks. Adaptation efforts are being linked with the SDGs, and more specific synergies and co-benefits between adaptation and mitigation were elaborated.
25. In terms of adaptation priorities, according to the NDCs, Parties continue to focus on food security and production; terrestrial and wetland ecosystems; human health; freshwater resources; key economic sectors and services; disaster risk management and early warning;
human habitats and urban areas; coastal areas and sea level rise; ocean ecosystems; and livelihoods and poverty.
26. Almost all Parties outlined domestic mitigation measures as key instruments for achieving mitigation targets in specific priority areas, such as energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, LULUCF and waste.
27. Domestic mitigation measures for renewable energy generation were most frequently mentioned by Parties, followed by measures for energy efficiency improvement. A few Parties communicated quantitative targets for the share (ranging from 13 to 100 per cent) of renewable energy in the electricity mix by 2030; and some of those target shares fall within or above the IPCC range of 47–65 per cent.11
28. Renewable energy generation and shifting to low- or zero-carbon fuels were frequently indicated as being relevant to reducing the carbon intensity of electricity and other fuels, including through increased electrification of the supply and end-use of energy.
Improving energy efficiency and shifting to more efficient modes of transport were often referenced in relation to reducing energy demand. Across all priority mitigation areas, Parties linked measures to the concept of circular economy (i.e. continual use of resources to reduce demand for exploiting new resources, including fossil fuels), including reducing and recycling waste. Carbon pricing was identified as efficiently supporting the move towards decarbonization by putting a price on GHG emissions.
29. Most Parties identified domestic mitigation measures in the LULUCF sector, with some developing country Parties referring to reducing deforestation as a priority with high mitigation potential, including by implementing REDD+ activities.
30. More Parties reported in their new or updated NDCs than in their previous NDCs on mitigation co-benefits of adaptation action and economic diversification plans, including information on specific projects, measures and activities with the resulting co-benefits.
Similarly, more Parties provided information on their consideration of social and economic consequences of response measures, including on just transition and economic diversification.
31. Adaptation actions and economic diversification plans with mitigation co-benefits include climate-smart agriculture, reducing food waste, vertical farming, adapting coastal ecosystems, increasing the share of renewable sources in energy generation, improving energy efficiency, carbon dioxide capture and storage, fuel switch and fuel price reforms in the transport sector, and moving to circular economy for better waste management.
32. Almost all Parties mentioned some or all means of implementation in their NDCs, although the structure and depth of that information varied significantly. While some Parties included a dedicated section on means of implementation or separate sections on finance, technology and/or capacity-building, many mentioned or referred to aspects of means of implementation in other sections of their NDCs.
33. Some Parties provided quantitative estimates of financial support needs for NDC implementation: most provided updates of estimates provided in their previous NDCs and a few provided estimates for the first time. Specific technology needs mentioned were mainly in the areas of agriculture, climate observation and early warning, energy, industry, infrastructure and buildings, transport and water. Capacity-building needs for formulating policy, integrating mitigation and adaptation into sectoral planning processes, accessing
11 The interquartile range of global renewable energy share in electricity generation by 2030 in the modelled emission pathways that limit global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot in the SR1.5.
finance and providing the information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding of NDCs were identified.
34. Some Parties highlighted South–South, triangular or regional cooperation as support mechanisms for NDC implementation, including for specific aspects of financial assistance, capacity-building and technology development and transfer.
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