DEVELOPMENTS OUTSIDE THE EURO AREA
9.2 In the United States and Japan
(annual percentage changes, unless otherwise indicated)
1. Economic and financial developments
United States
Consumer Unit labour Real GDP Industrial Unemployment Broad 3-month 10-year Exchange Fiscal Gross
price index costs 1) production rate money 2) interbank zero coupon rate 4) deficit (-)/ public
index as a % of deposit government as national surplus (+) debt 5) (manufacturing) labour force rate 3) bond yield; 3) currency as a % of as a % of
(s.a.) end of per euro GDP GDP
period
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2006 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 4.6 5.3 5.20 5.26 1.2556 -2.2 47.8
2007 2.9 2.4 1.9 3.2 4.6 6.3 5.30 4.81 1.3705 -2.8 48.4
2008 3.8 2.2 0.0 -4.4 5.8 7.1 2.93 2.70 1.4708 -6.5 56.3
2009 -0.4 -1.6 -2.6 -10.9 9.3 7.8 0.69 4.17 1.3948 -11.1 67.6
2009 Q2 -1.2 -0.1 -4.1 -14.7 9.3 8.9 0.84 3.95 1.3632 -11.6 62.7
Q3 -1.6 -2.1 -2.7 -10.0 9.6 7.8 0.41 3.61 1.4303 -11.6 65.8
Q4 1.4 -3.4 0.2 -3.7 10.0 5.1 0.27 4.17 1.4779 -11.1 67.6
2010 Q1 2.4 -2.6 2.4 3.9 9.7 1.9 0.26 4.01 1.3829 -10.9 70.7
Q2 1.8 -2.8 3.0 8.4 9.7 1.7 0.44 3.13 1.2708 . .
2010 Apr. 2.2 - - 7.2 9.9 1.6 0.31 3.84 1.3406 - -
May 2.0 - - 9.1 9.7 1.7 0.46 3.52 1.2565 - -
June 1.1 - - 8.8 9.5 1.8 0.54 3.13 1.2209 - -
July 1.2 - - 8.2 9.5 2.0 0.51 3.03 1.2770 - -
Aug. . - - . . . 0.36 2.58 1.2894 - -
Japan
2006 0.2 -0.5 2.0 4.5 4.1 1.0 0.30 1.85 146.02 -1.6 159.9
2007 0.1 -1.0 2.3 2.8 3.8 1.6 0.79 1.70 161.25 -2.4 156.3
2008 1.4 2.6 -1.2 -3.4 4.0 2.1 0.93 1.21 152.45 -2.1 162.2
2009 -1.4 0.4 -5.2 -21.9 5.1 2.7 0.47 1.42 130.34 . .
2009 Q2 -1.0 0.9 -5.9 -27.4 5.1 2.6 0.53 1.41 132.59 . .
Q3 -2.2 1.0 -4.9 -19.4 5.4 2.8 0.40 1.45 133.82 . .
Q4 -2.0 -3.9 -1.3 -4.2 5.2 3.3 0.31 1.42 132.69 . .
2010 Q1 -1.2 -3.1 4.4 27.6 4.9 2.8 0.25 1.48 125.48 . .
Q2 -0.9 . 1.9 21.0 5.2 3.0 0.24 1.18 117.15 . .
2010 Apr. -1.2 - - 25.9 5.1 2.9 0.24 1.37 125.33 - -
May -0.9 - - 20.4 5.2 3.1 0.24 1.37 115.83 - -
June -0.7 - - 17.3 5.3 2.9 0.24 1.18 110.99 - -
July -0.9 - - 14.8 5.2 2.7 0.24 1.13 111.73 - -
Aug. . - - . . . 0.24 1.06 110.04 - -
C39 Real gross domestic product
(annual percentage changes; quarterly data)
C40 Consumer price indices
(annual percentage changes; monthly data)
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 euro area
United States Japan
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4 -2 0 2 4 6 euro area
United States Japan
Sources: National data (columns 1, 2 (United States), 3, 4, 5 (United States), 6, 9 and 10); OECD (column 2 (Japan)); Eurostat (column 5 (Japan), euro area chart data); Reuters (columns 7 and 8); ECB calculations (column 11).
1) Seasonally adjusted. The data for the United States refer to the private non-agricultural business sector.
2) Period averages; M2 for the United States, M2+CDs for Japan.
3) Percentages per annum. For further information on the three-month interbank deposit rate, see Section 4.6.
4) For more information, see Section 8.2.
5) Gross consolidated general government debt (end of period).
6) Data refer to the changing composition of the euro area. For further information, see the General Notes.
6)
C1 Monetary aggregates S 1 2
C2 Counterparts S 1 2
C3 Components of monetary aggregates S 1 3
C4 Components of longer-term fi nancial liabilities S 1 3
C5 Loans to other fi nancial intermediaries and non-fi nancial corporations S 1 4
C6 Loans to households S 1 4
C7 Loans to government S 1 6
C8 Loans to non-euro area residents S 1 6
C9 Total deposits by sector (fi nancial intermediaries) S 1 7
C10 Total deposits and deposits included in M3 by sector (fi nancial intermediaries) S 1 7 C11 Total deposits by sector (non-fi nancial corporations and households) S 1 8 C12 Total deposits and deposits included in M3 by sector (non-fi nancial corporations and households) S 1 8
C13 Deposits by government and non-euro area residents S 1 9
C14 MFI holdings of securities S 2 0
C15 Total outstanding amounts and gross issues of securities other than shares issued by euro area residents S 3 5 C16 Net issues of securities other than shares: seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted S 3 7 C17 Annual growth rates of long-term debt securities, by sector of the issuer, in all currencies combined S 3 8 C18 Annual growth rates of short-term debt securities, by sector of the issuer, in all currencies combined S 3 9
C19 Annual growth rates for quoted shares issued by euro area residents S 4 0
C20 Gross issues of quoted shares by sector of the issuer S 4 1
C21 New deposits with an agreed maturity S 4 3
C22 New loans with a fl oating rate and up to 1 year’s initial rate fi xation S 4 3
C23 Euro area money market rates S 4 4
C24 3-month money market rates S 4 4
C25 Euro area spot yield curves S 4 5
C26 Euro area spot rates and spreads S 4 5
C27 Dow Jones EURO STOXX broad index, Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nikkei 225 S 4 6
C28 Defi cit, borrowing requirement and change in debt S 6 0
C29 Maastricht debt S 6 0
C30 Euro area b.o.p: current account S 6 1
C31 Euro area b.o.p: direct and portfolio investment S 6 1
C32 Euro area b.o.p: goods S 6 2
C33 Euro area b.o.p: services S 6 2
C34 Euro area international investment position S 6 5
C35 Euro area direct and portfolio investment position S 6 5
C36 Main b.o.p. items mirroring developments in MFI net external transactions S 7 0
C37 Effective exchange rates S 7 3
C38 Bilateral exchange rates S 7 3
C39 Real gross domestic product S 7 6
C40 Consumer price indices S 7 6
EURO AREA OVERVIEW
CALCULATION OF GROWTH RATES FOR MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The average growth rate for the quarter ending in month t is calculated as:
a)
where I is the index of adjusted outstanding t amounts as at month t (see also below).
Likewise, for the year ending in month t, the average growth rate is calculated as:
b)
SECTIONS 2.1 TO 2.6
CALCULATION OF TRANSACTIONS
Monthly transactions are calculated from monthly differences in outstanding amounts adjusted for reclassifi cations, other revaluations, exchange rate variations and any other changes which do not arise from transactions.
If L represents the outstanding amount at the end t of month t, C Mt the reclassifi cation adjustment in month t, E Mt the exchange rate adjustment and V Mt the other revaluation adjustments, the transactions F M tin month t are defi ned as:
c)
Similarly, the quarterly transactions F Qt for the quarter ending in month t are defi ned as:
d) FtQ = (Lt – Lt–3) – CtQ – EtQ – VtQ
where Lt-3 is the amount outstanding at the end of month t-3 (the end of the previous quarter)
and, for example, C t is the reclassifi cation adjustment in the quarter ending in month t.
For those quarterly series for which monthly observations are now available (see below), the quarterly transactions can be derived as the sum of the three monthly transactions in the quarter.
CALCULATION OF GROWTH RATES FOR MONTHLY SERIES
Growth rates can be calculated from transactions or from the index of adjusted outstanding amounts. If F Mt and L are defi ned as above, t the index I of adjusted outstanding amounts in t month t is defi ned as:
e)
The base of the index (for the non-seasonally adjusted series) is currently set as December 2006 = 100. Time series for the index of adjusted outstanding amounts are available on the ECB’s website (www.ecb.europa.eu) in the
“Monetary and fi nancial statistics” sub-section of the “Statistics” section.
The annual growth rate a for month t – i.e. the t change in the 12 months ending in month t – can be calculated using either of the following two formulae:
f)
g)
Unless otherwise indicated, the annual growth rates refer to the end of the indicated period.
For example, the annual percentage change for the year 2002 is calculated in g) by dividing the index for December 2002 by the index for December 2001.
−1
⎞
⎠
⎟
⎟⎟
⎟
⎞
⎠
⎟
⎟⎟
⎟
×100 0.5It−12 +
∑
It−i−12 + 0.5It−152 i=1
0.5It +
∑
It−i + 0.5It−32 i=1
⎞
⎠
⎟
⎟⎟
⎟
⎞
⎠
⎟
⎟⎟
⎟
−1 ×100 0.5It +
∑
It−i + 0.5It−1211
i=1
0.5It−12 +
∑
It−i−12 + 0.5It−2411
i=1
FtM = (Lt – Lt–1) – CtM – EtM – VtM
It = It−1 × Ft Lt−1
⎛ M
⎝⎜ ⎞
⎠⎟ 1+
at = Ft−i Lt−1−i
M i=0
⎛
⎝⎜ ⎞
⎠⎟
⎡
⎣⎢ ⎤
⎦⎥ ×100
∏
11 1 + −1at = It It−12
⎛
⎝
⎜ ⎞
⎠
⎟× 100
−1
Growth rates for intra-annual periods can be derived by adapting formula g). For example, the month-on-month growth rate aMt can be calculated as:
h)
Finally, the three-month moving average (centred) for the annual growth rate of M3 is obtained as (at+1 + a + at t-1)/3, where a is defi ned t as in f) or g) above.
CALCULATION OF GROWTH RATES FOR QUARTERLY SERIES
If F Qt and Lt-3 are defi ned as above, the index It of adjusted outstanding amounts for the quarter ending in month t is defi ned as:
i)
The annual growth rate in the four quarters ending in month t (i.e. at) can be calculated using formula g).
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT OF THE EURO AREA MONETARY STATISTICS 1
The approach used is based on multiplicative decomposition using X-12-ARIMA.2 The seasonal adjustment may include a day-of-the-week adjustment, and for some series it is carried out indirectly by means of a linear combination of components. This is the case for M3, which is derived by aggregating the seasonally adjusted series for M1, M2 less M1, and M3 less M2.
The seasonal adjustment procedures are fi rst applied to the index of adjusted outstanding amounts.3 The resulting estimates of seasonal factors are then applied to the levels and to the
adjustments arising from reclassifi cations and revaluations, in turn yielding seasonally adjusted transactions. Seasonal (and trading day) factors are revised at annual intervals or as required.
SECTIONS 3.1 TO 3.5
EQUALITY OF USES AND RESOURCES
In Section 3.1 the data conform to a basic accounting identity. For non-fi nancial transactions, total uses equal total resources for each transaction category. This accounting identity is also refl ected in the fi nancial account – i.e. for each fi nancial instrument category, total transactions in fi nancial assets equal total transactions in liabilities. In the other changes in assets account and the fi nancial balance sheets, total fi nancial assets equal total liabilities for each fi nancial instrument category, with the exception of monetary gold and special drawing rights, which are by defi nition not a liability of any sector.
CALCULATION OF BALANCING ITEMS
The balancing items at the end of each account in Sections 3.1 and 3.2 are computed as follows.
The trade balance equals euro area imports minus exports vis-à-vis the rest of the world for goods and services.
It It−1 at M=⎛ −1
⎝
⎜ ⎞
⎠
⎟×100
It = It−3 ×⎛
⎝
⎜ ⎞
⎠ Lt−3 ⎟
FtQ 1+
For details, see “Seasonal adjustment of monetary aggregates and 1
HICP for the euro area”, ECB (August 2000) and the “Monetary and fi nancial statistics” sub-section of the “Statistics” section of the ECB’s website (www.ecb.europa. eu).
For details, see Findley, D., Monsell, B., Bell, W., Otto, 2
M. and Chen, B. C. (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16, 2, pp.127-152, or
“X-12-ARIMA Reference Manual”, Time Series Staff, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.
For internal purposes, the model-based approach of TRAMO-SEATS is also used. For details of TRAMO-SEATS, see Gomez, V. and Maravall, A. (1996), “Programs TRAMO and SEATS: Instructions for the User”, Banco de España, Working Paper No 9628, Madrid.
It follows that for the seasonally adjusted series, the level of the 3
index for the base period (i.e. December 2001) generally differs from 100, refl ecting the seasonality of that month.
Technical Notes
Net operating surplus and mixed income is defi ned for resident sectors only and is calculated as gross value added (gross domestic product at market prices for the euro area) minus compensation of employees (uses) minus other taxes less subsidies on production (uses) minus consumption of fi xed capital (uses).
Net national income is defi ned for resident sectors only and is computed as net operating surplus and mixed income plus compensation of employees (resources) plus taxes less subsidies on production (resources) plus net property income (resources minus uses).
Net disposable income is also defi ned only for resident sectors and equals net national income plus net current taxes on income and wealth (resources minus uses) plus net social contributions (resources minus uses) plus net social benefi ts other than social transfers in kind (resources minus uses) plus net other current transfers (resources minus uses).
Net saving is defi ned for resident sectors and is calculated as net disposable income plus the net adjustment for the change in the net equity of households in pension fund reserves (resources minus uses) minus fi nal consumption expenditure (uses). For the rest of the world, the current external account is compiled as the trade balance plus all net income (resources minus uses).
Net lending/net borrowing is computed from the capital account as net saving plus net capital transfers (resources minus uses) minus gross capital formation (uses) minus acquisitions less disposals of non-produced non-fi nancial assets (uses) plus consumption of fi xed capital (resources). It can also be calculated in the fi nancial account as total transactions in fi nancial assets minus total transactions in liabilities (also known as changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth) due to transactions). For the household and non-fi nancial corporation sectors, there is a statistical discrepancy between the balancing items computed from the capital account and the fi nancial account.
Changes in net worth (wealth) are calculated as changes in net worth (wealth) due to savings and capital transfers plus other changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth). They currently exclude other changes in non-fi nancial assets owing to the unavailability of data.
Net fi nancial worth (wealth) is calculated as total fi nancial assets minus total liabilities, whereas changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth) are equal to the sum of changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth) due to transactions (lending/net borrowing from the fi nancial account) and other changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth).
Finally, changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth) due to transactions are computed as total transactions in fi nancial assets minus total transactions in liabilities, and other changes in net fi nancial worth (wealth) are calculated as total other changes in fi nancial assets minus total other changes in liabilities.