POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Management Engineering
Master of Sustainable Operations Management and Social
Innovation
Analysis of Electric Vehicles in Italy
Supervisor: Professor Davide Chiaroni
Assistant Supervisor: Martino Bonalumi
Author:
Andrea Vavassori: 876822
1
Un ringraziamento a chi in questi anni mi ha accompagnato in questo percorso, in particolare alla mia famiglia.
Ringrazio anche l’Energy & Strategy Group per avermi dato l’opportunità di lavorare su questo progetto di tesi. Un grazie a Martino Bonalumi che con il suo aiuto mi ha supportato nella stesura.
2 Table of Contents
List of Abbreviations, Acronyms, Symbols and Signs ... 4
List of Figures ... 5 List of Tables ... 8 Abstract ... 11 Executive Summary ... 12 Introduction ... 12 EVSE ... 12 EVs market ... 13
Alternative fuels vehicles in Italian market... 16
Market offer ... 17 E-mobility emissions ... 18 Conclusions ... 21 1. Introduction ... 25 2. Theoretical Introduction ... 27 2.1. E-vehicles Description ... 27
2.2. E-vehicles Supply Equipment (EVSE) Description ... 30
2.2.1. Charging modes ... 30
2.2.2. Connectors ... 31
3. EVSE Analysis ... 34
3.1. Global Overview ... 34
3.2. European overview ... 35
3.2.1. ACEA study: distribution of EV charging points cross the EU ... 36
3.3. Countries’ overview ... 38 3.3.1. Italy ... 40 3.3.2. Norway ... 41 3.3.3. Netherlands ... 42 3.3.4. Sweden ... 43 3.3.5. Germany ... 45 3.3.6. France ... 46
4. Analysis of the EV market ... 47
4.1. Global market ... 47
4.2. European market ... 51
3 4.3. Countries’ overview... 55 4.3.1. Norway ... 56 4.3.2. Netherlands ... 59 4.3.3. Sweden ... 61 4.3.4. Germany ... 62 4.3.5. France ... 64 4.3.6. Italy ... 65
4.3.6.1. CNG & LPG market in Italy ... 68
5. Market Offer Analysis ... 73
5.1. Market offer ... 73
5.2. TCO Analysis ... 82
5.3. Battery Costs Analysis ... 94
6. E-mobility emissions ... 97
6.1. E-mobility environmental impacts ... 97
6.2. Emissions Level of New Registered Cars in Europe ... 98
6.3. EEA Study: EVs Emissions along all the Lifecycle ... 99
Production ... 99
In-use ... 100
End-of-life ... 101
Overall ... 101
6.4. Italy ... 104
6.4.1. Actual emissions analysis ... 105
6.4.2. Future Emissions ... 108
6.5. Overall overview of EVs emissions regarding ... 115
7. Conclusions ... 117
7.1. PEVs and EVSE Final Considerations and Forecasts ... 117
7.1.1. National Electric System Stability ... 119
7.2. Considerations about incentives ... 121
7.3. CO2 emissions analysis ... 122
7.4. Final considerations about Italian market ... 123
4
List of Abbreviations, Acronyms, Symbols and Signs
ICE Internal Combustion Engine HV/HEV Hybrid Vehicle
PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
BEV Battery Electric Vehicle EV Electric Vehicle
PEV Plug-In Electric Vehicle
EVSE Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment FCV Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle
PNire Piano Nazionale infrastrutturale per la ricarica dei veicoli ad energia elettrica % Percent € Euro $ Dollar g gram Kg kilogram Km Kilometre KWh Kilowatt hour GWh Gigawatt hour
CNG Compressed natural gas LPG Liquefied petroleum gas LNG Liquefied natural gas GHG Green House Gases TCO Total Cost of Ownership VAT Value-Added tax
5
List of Figures
Figure i- Number of PEV per Charging Position per each country (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.11)
Figure ii-Passenger electric car stock in major regions and the top-ten EV countries (IEA Source)
(pag.12)
Figure iii-Cars' sales first semester 2018 in Italy by fuel type (Source "LA STAMPA") (pag.13) Figure iv-PEV Market Share in Italy (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
(pag.13)
Figure v-Top 10 alternative fuel vehicles market in EU/EFTA (Source ANFIA) (pag.14) Figure vi-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 11.000 km (pag.16)
Figure vii-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 11.000 km and purchase incentives (pag.16) Figure 1 - Vehicles' types (pag.27)
Figure 2- Charging mode number 1 (pag.30) Figure 3- Charging mode number 2 (pag.30) Figure 4 - Charging mode number 3 (pag.30) Figure 5 - Charging mode number 4 (pag.31)
Figure 6 - Global EV charging outlets, 2010-2017 (Source “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA report)
(pag.34)
Figure 7 - Electric car stock and publicly accessible charging outlets by type and country, 2017 (Source “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA report) (pag.34)
Figure 8 - Ratio of publicly accessible charging outlets per electric car for selected countries (pag.35) Figure 9- Europe (EU+Efta+Turkey): total number of publicly accessible charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.36)
Figure 10 - Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (pag.36)
Figure 11-Charging points in EU (“Electric cars: unrealistic CO2 targets proposed by EU Parliament ignore lack of charging points ”Source ACEA) (pag.37)
Figure 12- Number of PEV per Charging Position per each country (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.38)
6 Figure 13- Italy: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.40)
Figure 14 - Norway: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.41)
Figure 15 - Netherlands: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.42)
Figure 16 - Sweden: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.43)
Figure 17- Germany: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.45)
Figure 18-France: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.46)
Figure 19-Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2013-17 (IEA Source) (pag.48)
Figure 20-Passenger electric car stock in major regions and the top-ten EVI countries (IEA Source)
(pag.49)
Figure 21 - PEV market share in Europe (EU+Efta+Turkey) (%) (pag.52) Figure 22 - Top 10 PEV market share Countries in Europe (%) (pag.52) Figure 23-GDP per capita (EU+EFTA member states) (pag.53)
Figure 24-Market share of electrically chargeable vehicles (EU+EFTA member states) (pag.53) Figure 25-PEV New Registrations in Norway (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.56)
Figure 26-Perceived importance of Norway’s electric car support policies based on survey results (Source “NordicEVOutlook2018”) (pag.58)
Figure 27-PEV New Registrations in Netherlands (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.59)
Figure 28-PEV New Registrations in Sweden (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.61)
Figure 29-PEV New Registrations in Germany (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.62)
7 Figure 30-PEV New Registrations in France (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
(pag.64)
Figure 31-Cars' sales first semester 2018 in Italy by fuel type (Source "LA STAMPA") (pag.65) Figure 32-PEV Market Share in Italy (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
(pag.66)
Figure 33-CNG new registrations in Italy (pag.69)
Figure 34-CNG market in Europe (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.70) Figure 35-Top 10 alternative fuel vehicles market in EU/EFTA (Source ANFIA) (pag.71)
Figure 36 -Number of publicly filling stations in Italy (Source “EAFO, ANSA, Ecomotori”) (pag.73) Figure 37-Cars' sales first semester 2018 in Italy by fuel type (pag.78)
Figure 38-Italian market offer per types of engine (pag.78)
Figure 39-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 11.000 km (pag.87) Figure 40-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 20.000 km (pag.90)
Figure 41-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 11.000 km and purchase incentives (pag.92)
Figure 42-The six models offered on the Italian market with a battery autonomy higher than 200 km
(pag.95)
Figure 43-Forecasts lithium battery pack prices (Source "BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)", 2017) (pag.96)
Figure 44- BEV and ICE pre-tax prices in the U.S. for medium segment price 2010-2030, thousand $ and % (Source "BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)", 2017) (pag.96)
Figure 45-CO2 emissions at local level of the different kinds of vehicles (source RSE, EEA and ISPRA) (pag.100)
Figure 46-Range of life-cycle CO2 emissions for different vehicles and fuel types (pag.104) Figure 17-Mix of energy sources to produce electricity in Italy (2017) (pag.105)
Figure 48-2015 and 2030 sceneries planned by EU for EVs (pag.111)
Figure 49- SEN sceneries for Electricity Generation (Source “Renewable Energy Report 2018” Energy & Strategy Group, Polimi) (pag.112)
8
List of Tables
Table viii-Energy mix of the three sceneries and relative emissions to generate 1 kWh (pag.17) Table ix-CO2 emissions for a vehicle in the three sceneries (pag.17)
Table x-Emissions produced by a BEV in the 3 sceneries (pag.18)
Table xi-Current number of PEVs and number of PEVs forecasted by EU for 2025 and 2030, charging positions and charging positions forecasted by ENEL for 2025 and 2030 (pag.20)
Table 1-Type of connectors and their relative charging modes (pag.31)
Table 2-Number of charging position and Number of PEV per charging position for the main European Countries (pag.38)
Table 3-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Italy) (pag.40) Table 4-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Norway) (pag.41) Table 5-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Netherlands) (pag.42) Table 6-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Sweden) (pag.43) Table 7-Overview of investment cost for chargers in Sweden, USD 2017 (pag.44)
Table 8-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Germany) (pag.45) Table 9-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (France) (pag.46) Table 10-Chinese, American and Japanese EV market evolution (pag.48)
Table 11-Norway incentives (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.57) Table 12-Netherlands incentives (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.60) Table 13- Sweden incentives (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.61) Table 14-Germany incentives (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.63) Table 15-France incentives (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.64) Table 16-Trend of EVs sales in Italy in the last years (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.66)
Table 17-Incentives in Italy (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”) (pag.67) Table 18-Market offer of top 20 automotive industries for type of engine in Italy (pag.75)
9 Table 19-Number of new EV models and % of electric sales announced by automakers for the next future (Source “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA report). FCA goals has been added on the base of the official industrial plan 2018-2022 officialised in June 2018 (pag.77)
Table 20-BEV models offered on the market (pag.80) Table 21-BEV models offered on the market. (pag.81)
Table 22-Costs considered in the TCO computation for the three types of engine, respectively petrol, CNG and electrical. (pag.85)
Table 23-Different charging modalities with the respective percentage of electricity charged (over the total) and the respective fare (11.000 km) (pag.86)
Table 24-TCO results (11.000 km) (pag.87)
Table 25-Costs considered in the TCO computation for the three types of engine, respectively petrol, CNG and electrical (pag.88)
Table 26-Different charging modalities with the respective percentage of electricity charged (over the total) and the respective fare (20.000 km) (pag.89)
Table 27-TCO results (20.000 km) (pag.90)
Table 28-TCO results (11.000 km and purchase incentives) (pag.92)
Table 29-Average New Car Emissions in the selected European Countries (Source Road Traffic Advisory Board, ACEA) (pag.99)
Table 30-Electricity production for single source in Italy (2017) (pag.105)
Table 31-CO2 emissions per kWh for each source 2016 (Bilancio EUROSTAT, 1990-2016)
(pag.107)
Table 32-CO2 emissions per kWh with the actual mix (2017) (pag.107) Table 33-CO2 emissions for a vehicle in Italy (Source ACEA) (pag.108) Table 34-Emissions produced by a BEV in Italy (pag.108)
Table 35-Forecasts for new registrations CO2 emissions (pag.110)
Table 36-Average CO2 Emissions of Circulating Vehicles in 2025 (pag.110) Table 37-Sources Mix 2025 according to SEN (pag.112)
10 Table 39-Forecasted CO2 emissions for a vehicle in Italy in 2025 (pag.113)
Table 40-Emissions produced by a BEV in Italy in 2025 (pag.114)
Table 41-Energy sources mix of Poland (Source “Renewable Energy Report 2018” Energy & Strategy Group, Polimi) (pag.115)
Table 42-CO2 emissions per kWh with the mix of Poland (2018) (pag.115)
Table 43-Emissions produced by a BEV in Italy assuming an energy sources mix like the Polish one
(pag.115)
Table 44- According to 2025 scenery, the number of EVs is forecasted for 2025 (in TOT. column in the sum are considered even the actual circulating EVs and BEVs) (pag.118)
Table 45- According to 2030 scenery, the number of EVs is forecasted for 2030 (in TOT. column in the sum are considered even the actual circulating EVs and BEVs) (pag.119)
Table 46-Current Charging positions and charging positions forecasted by ENEL for 2025 and 2030
11 Abstract
Il raggiungimento di una mobilità sostenibile rappresenta una grande sfida per le attuali e le future generazioni. Sicuramente in questo contesto, tra i nuovi paradigmi emergenti, la mobilità elettrica è una di quelli più interessanti. Infatti può rappresentare una delle principali soluzioni a questi problemi nel settore trasporti, essendo in grado di garantire veicoli ad emissioni zero che limitano i propri impatti ambientali.
Attualmente la mobilità elettrica sta vivendo le prime fasi di sviluppo e per questo motivo sta mostrando alcuni problemi. In particolare in alcuni paesi, e l’Italia ne è un esempio, il mercato della mobilità elettrica ha maggiori difficoltà a decollare.
Si è partiti, dopo una breve introduzione teorica dei veicoli elettrici privati, con uno studio del livello di sviluppo delle infrastrutture di ricarica e del mercato dei veicoli elettrici, prima a livello mondiale, poi Europeo e poi del singolo Paese, concentrandosi sull’Italia. I risultati dell’analisi hanno permesso di avere una panoramica precisa dei mercati dei singoli Paesi e capire le principali differenze che li caratterizzano, in particolare per quanto riguarda il sistema di incentivi. Proprio quest’ultimo si è dimostrato essere una delle principali debolezze del mercato Italiano.
L’analisi è proseguita con lo studio del mercato dell’offerta in Italia, con l’obiettivo di capire il numero di modelli elettrici presenti sul mercato e successivamente di quantificare il differenziale di prezzo presente rispetto alle auto convenzionali. In maniera più dettagliata poi è stata eseguita un’analisi economica dei veicoli elettrici attraverso lo studio del TCO, per comprendere l’effettiva convenienza derivante dall’acquisto di un veicolo elettrico rispetto ad uno tradizionale.
La parte finale è focalizzata sullo studio delle emissioni di CO2 risparmiate con l’introduzione dei veicoli elettrici, tenendo conto anche del mix di fonti energetiche utilizzato per produrre elettricità in diversi scenari energetici.
L’elaborato si conclude con alcune previsioni future sugli EVs e sull’EVSE e con le considerazioni finali.
12
Executive Summary
Introduction
In recent years, e-mobility has been one of the main trends to focus on in the transportation sector. The evolution of new technologies, the fuels’ prices, the sustainability issues, such as the rising number of vehicles on the roads and the consequent rising of global emissions, have brought e-mobility to become a core issue for the contemporary society. New technologies should allow implementing solutions in the e-mobility field able to better satisfy customer needs, overcoming past technical aspects. The continuous growth of fuels’ price is forcing to adopt alternatives in transportation, different from the historical combustion engines. Another influencing factor is the goal to reach a sustainable mobility, with zero emission vehicles that can cross the cities without emitting noise and harmful gasses. In parallel with the transition to renewable resources, that would allow also an electricity production with zero emissions, e-mobility could guarantee an almost total sustainability of transportation. However, until electricity is produced mostly with fossil fuels, one cannot talk about the e-vehicles as a completely zero emission solution.
Currently in order to counter climate change, governments set goals to reduce human impact on the earth and to reach a more sustainable lifestyle. This is the goal of the “2020 climate & energy package” set by the EU, which aims to cut 20% of greenhouse emissions (from 1990 levels), to produce 20% of EU energy from renewables and to improve the energy efficiency by 20%. In this plan, transportation plays a fundamental role, being responsible of 23% of global C02 emissions, responsible almost of the 50% of the energetic consumption arising from oil and responsible of 20% of world energy consumption.
In this sense, e-mobility could represent a potential solution for transportation problems. Nevertheless, it still shows some weaknesses that have to be solved in order to definitely change the market. Problems such as the battery autonomy, the number of recharging points, the charge speed and the price of e-vehicles still represent obstacles to make e-vehicles become a mainstream choice in the automotive market. For this reason in the introduction phase, the e-vehicles will be supported by clear policies of countries who should boost their diffusion at national level.
EVSE
At global level, there has been a constant growth of the number of chargers since 2010, especially of the private slow ones. In parallel, there was also a growth of public slow chargers.
The diffusion of EVs depends strongly on the growth of charging Infrastructures. Therefore, their future success will be influenced by charging infrastructures’ availability. In 2017, private chargers at residences and workplaces were estimated almost 3 million worldwide, while charging outlets on private property for fleets (primarily buses) arrive almost at 366.000 units (mostly in China).
13 A particular focus has to be put on public chargers: indeed, they will be an important component of the EV supply infrastructures. At the moment, most of the publicly accessible chargers are slow charging chargers. Public chargers are the most important ones in order to increase the appeal of EVs allowing drivers to run long distances and to avoid range anxiety.
Passing to countries overview in Europe, in order to have a more significant measure of the diffusion of publicly accessible charging stations, it is useful to put the number of chargers in relation with the number of PEVs.
Figure i- Number of PEV per Charging Position per each country (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
Looking at Italy, if we put in relation the number of chargers with the number of EVs roads, we obtain that for every charger there are almost five EVs. This number is relatively low mainly because the number of EVs in Italy is still low, compared with the other European countries. This confirms once again the Italian delay in the e-mobility sector.
More in detail, Italy has almost doubled the number of its publicly accessible charging stations since 2014, although compared with the other countries this number is still low. There is still a large prevalence of normal chargers, representing almost the 80% of the total.
In Italy there’s a program dedicated to the development of the charging points’ network for the EVs called Pnire, “Piano Nazionale Infrastrutturale per la ricarica dei veicoli ad energia elettrica” (adopted with the Dpcm of the 26th September of 2014). It aims to define specific guidelines targeted to guarantee a unitary development of e-charge at national level.
EVs market
In the last years, the global electric car stock has been expanding rapidly, crossing the 3 million vehicles threshold in 2017, after crossing the 1 million threshold in 2015 and the 2 million mark in
14 2016. It expanded by 56% compared with 2016 (as shown by the figure below). The increase of the last years is largely merit of China: indeed at the present moment it represents the largest electric car stock with 40% of the global total. Europe and USA have contributed in a good part to the increase of the EV market as well and currently they each account for about a quarter of the global total.
Figure ii-Passenger electric car stock in major regions and the top-ten EV countries (IEA Source) Looking at this graph it is possible to observe, despite the high growth of the number of electric vehicles, how the incidence of electric cars on the total stock share is still low. Although China seems to have a high number of electric vehicles (more than 1.2 million), they represent only about 0,2 percent of the total Chinese market. Concerning the USA and Japan, there is even a lower incidence of electric cars compared to China.
In Europe, there is a high gap between the north and the south, concerning the development of e-mobility.
Norway holds the record in Europe, with 176.310 vehicles. It is followed by the United Kingdom (133.670), the Netherlands (119.330), France (118.770) and Germany (109.560).
Moreover, looking at figure above, Norway has the world’s highest share at 6.4% of electric cars in its vehicle stock, data confirming how advanced the status of EVs in this country is. In addition to Norway, in Europe only the Netherlands (1,6%) and Sweden (1,0%) have a stock share of 1% or higher.
ACEA conducted a study in which it puts in evidence the correlation between uptake of electric cars and GDP in the EU. It is possible to understand that the success and the progress of the EV market is influenced in large measure not only by the programme of incentives set by each state (as it will be illustrated in the following section of the thesis), but also by the level of GDP per capita. Indeed the initial expense to sustain for the purchase of the EV is largely higher than the price of a traditional vehicle. This means the customer has to have a good economical initial availability.
15 Passing to analyse Italy, the following graph shows the market situation.
Figure iii-Cars' sales first semester 2018 in Italy by fuel type (Source "LA STAMPA")
Italy once again shows to be in a backwardness phase concerning the EVs: in fact EVs represent only 0,39% of the car sales in the first semester of 2018. The Italian market is still dominated by ICEs. In particular diesel cars represent more than a half of the market (although they have had a decrease of the 6,3%) and petrol cars represent 33,5% (+1,7%) . Hybrid vehicles have had a growth of +31% compared to the previous semester, reaching 6,1% of the total. LPG and CNG represent a good slice of the Italian market, which for these kind of vehicles represents an excellence at European level. Focusing on EVs, the graph illustrates the evolution of the PEVs Italian market.
Figure iv-PEV Market Share in Italy (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
53,80% 33,48%
3,91%
6,13% 2,30% 0,39%
Cars' sales first semester 2018 in Italy by fuel type
16 The first relevant numerical improvements of Italian market are in 2012 when 652 electric cars were registered, representing 0,05% of the market share. Since that moment, the market has a good growth reaching 4.827 units in 2017 and 2018 is going to be even better. The sales at June 2018 are practically double what they were in the same month of 2017 (2.324 units).
Focusing on the incentives, among the countries we analysed, it is clear Italy is the one with the least adequate programme. This lack of support for the customers explains why the Italian e-mobility market has the difficulties previously described. Indeed, in this initial phase of the market, the gap represented by the actual disadvantages of EVs can be compensated only by a smart incentives’ programme planned by the government.
Alternative fuels vehicles in Italian market
Italian market is characterized by a high number of gas vehicles. If we look at the bigger picture, considering the alternative fuel vehicles as the set of vehicles not working with petrol and diesel, we can obtain a wider perspective.
In this way, we include in our analysis, in addition to the EVs, the gas vehicles as well (CNG, LPG and E85), considered eco-friendly. The results we obtain are different from the previous ones, strictly focused on the EV market.
The landscape outlining is the following:
Figure v-Top 10 alternative fuel vehicles market in EU/EFTA (Source ANFIA)
If we look at the graph above, with the new perspective, Italy becomes the new leader of the alternative fuel vehicles market. This result is strongly influenced by the high number of gas vehicles registered.
17 It is evident in this transition phase Italy is betting both on EVs and on alternative fuels vehicles, in particular CNG and LPG cars.
Market offer
In the previous section, EVs market demand was analysed. It was possible to understand how EV market is still backward in Italy. In the 2017, new registrations have represented only 0.25% of the total, while in the first semester of 2018 the new registrations have been improved and have represented 0.39% of the total. The sales at June 2018 (4.353 units) are practically the double of the ones in the same month of 2017 (2.324 units).
However, the low percentage of new registrations might be influenced by the small amount of models offered by car manufacturers. This section aims to evaluate the current models on the market in order to understand the state of the offer.
The result obtained is that on the market are offered 33 PEV models (both BEVs and PHEVs), which does not justify such a low level of sales.
However continuing the analysis, focusing on the existing differential price between conventional models and e-models it is possible to arrive to important considerations.
Indeed, in average there is a price gap of almost 13.000 €. This very high purchase price represents a high barrier for customers.
Analysing more in deep the economic aspect, without stopping only at the purchase price, TCO analysis is conducted on three different models of Golf (petrol, CNG and electric). The costs considered are insurance, fuel consumption, circulation tax and maintenance. In the case of shorter usage (11.000 km) the electric model is not convenient, because the advantages given by the lower maintenance, fuel, circulation tax and insurance costs are not able to compensate the initial expense.
Figure vi-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 11.000 km
€-€10.000 €20.000 €30.000 €40.000 €50.000 €60.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
TCO (11.000 km)
18 Considering the case with initial incentives (equal to 7.500 €) the situation changes. The difference is the purchase price that substantially is discounted of 7.500 €. The situation is the following:
Figure vii-TCO analysis with the hypothesis of 11.000 km and purchase incentives
With this level of incentives, the e-golf becomes convenient starting since the year eight, compared to the TSI model: an acceptable time to repay the initial investment and to gain the first advantages of an EV.
The encouraging data is the fact that the incentives on the purchase are equivalent to a discounted price: in the next future (2025) is expected that the price of an EV will be the same of an ICE, and so the TCO of an EV will be more convenient than one of a traditional car (even without incentives).
E-mobility emissions
At local level, it is evident the EVs do not produce any emissions: not having a combustion engine, there are not exhaust fumes released in the air, which pollute the city. The level of their emissions depends on the source of electricity production.
Therefore, if we suppose the ideal case in which the electricity is only produced by renewables energies, the emissions level of these cars would be equal to zero.
It will be analysed the level of savings in terms of CO2 that will be reached with the introduction of EVs forecasted in different scenarios. This will be analysed on the base of the actual mix of energy sources and then on the base of the future possible scenarios. 2025 scenario will be assumed on the basis of SEN (Strategia Energetica Nazionale).
For each scenario, CO2 amount generated to produce 1 kWh is computed (according to ISPRA data):
Case 1 (2018) Case 2 (2025 SEN) Case 3 (Poland)
Natural gas 45 % 51,4 % 5 % €-€5.000 €10.000 €15.000 €20.000 €25.000 €30.000 €35.000 €40.000 €45.000 €50.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
TCO (11.000 km)
19
Coal 12 % 0 % 77 %
Oil 6 % 1,4 % 3 %
Renewable energies 37% 47,2 % 15 %
gCO2/kWh 305,8 gCO2/kWh 196,6 gCO2/kWh 724,5 gCO2/kWh
Table viii-Energy mix of the three sceneries and relative emissions to generate 1 kWh
For each of these three scenarios, it is computed the amount of CO2 saved with the introduction of a certain level of EVs: current registrations are considered for case 1 and case 3, while registrations forecasted by EU are considered for case 2 (15%).
For each scenery, it is necessary to know the average CO2 emissions of the circulating cars’ fleet in order to calculate the savings coming from the introduction of EVs.
In the following tables there are the results:
Scenery 1 (2017) Scenery 2 (2025) Scenery 3
(Poland)
Average CO2 Emissions of New Registered Vehicles (NEW)
113,4 gCO2/km 90 gCO2/km 113,4 gCO2/km
Average CO2 Emissions of Circulating Vehicles (OLD)
183 gCO2/km 147,65 gCO2/km 183 gCO2/km
Average Mileage of an Italian Car
11.000 km/year 11.000 km/year 11.000 km/year
Total CO2 Emissions in a Year of an Old Vehicles (183 gCO2/km)
2 tonsCO2/year 1,625 tonsCO2/year 2 tonsCO2/year
Total CO2 Emissions in a Year of a New Vehicles (113.4 gCO2/km)
1,25 tonsCO2/year 0,990 tonsCO2/year 1,25
tonsCO2/year
Table ix-CO2 emissions for a vehicle in the three sceneries
With the scenery forecasted for 2025 according to the targets imposed by EU, CO2 emissions of the new registrations has to decrease. Indeed, starting from 2021 the new cars registered must generate a CO2 level lower than 95 gCO2/km, a level forecasted to decrease to 90 gCO2/km within 2025. This
20 new vehicles go to make younger cars fleet and reduce the average emissions, which decrease to 147,65 gCO2/km.
BEV emissions are calculated in the following table:
BEV Emissions Scenery 1 (2017) BEV Emissions Scenery 2 (2025) BEV Emissions Scenery 3 (Poland)
CO2 Emissions of an EV 0 gCO2/km 0 gCO2/km 0 gCO2/km
Fuel Consumption 6,7 km/kWh 6,7 km/kWh 6,7 km/kWh
CO2 Emissions to Produce 1 kWh
305,8 gCO2/kWh 196,6 gCO2/kWh 724,5 gCO2/kWh
Average Mileage of an Italian Car
11.000 km/year 11.000 km/year 11.000 km/year
Total CO2 Emissions in a Year 0,5 tons/year 0,320 tons/year 1,255 tons/year Table x-Emissions produced by a BEV in the 3 sceneries
Consider scenery 1 and BEVs registrations in 2017 in Italy, which number to 1.930 units (Source EAFO), the total amount of CO2 emissions saved is equal:
- to 2.895 tons/year (assuming a substitution of an old vehicle with average emissions of 183 gCO2/km)
- to 1.450 tons/year (assuming the registration of a BEV instead of a new ICE vehicle with average emissions of 113.4 gCO2/km)
If we consider scenery 2, assuming the sceneries planned by EU and assuming the renovation rate constant, the number of EVs introduced in 2025 are 173.772 BEVs and 115.848 PHEVs. The firsts represent the 60% of EVs, while the seconds represent the 40 % of EVs.
Multiplying the number of BEVs for the number of emissions of each BEV, which we calculated before, we obtain:
- 59.607 tons/year produced by BEVs (considering the CO2 emitted to generated the
electricity)
Consider the BEVs registrations forecasted for 2025 in Italy, the total amount of CO2 emissions saved is equal:
21 - to 223.298 tons/year (assuming a substitution of an old vehicle with average emissions of 147,65 gCO2/km)
- to 112.952 tons/year (assuming the registration of a BEV instead of a new ICE vehicle with average emissions of 90 gCO2/km)
The savings in terms of CO2 per car decreases due the renovation of the car fleet along the years, but the CO2 benefits increase thanks to the growth of registered EVs. With this percentage of BEVs introduced, CO2 savings start to be in the order of the hundreds thousands, beginning to show a significant impact on the reduction of CO2.
Scenery 3 assumes Italy has the same energy mix of Poland, which is a country significantly characterized by electricity generation from carbon fossil fuels.
Looking at the results to produce 1 kWh, it is clear the huge impact the use of coal has on the emissions. Currently one kWh produced in Poland generates 418 gCO2 more than one produced in Italy (equal to 305,8 gCO2/km).
Therefore applying this level of emissions to produce 1 kWh the convenience to use a BEV decreases and even it becomes more pollutant than a conventional one.
Indeed, in a year keeping in consideration the data computed above, the production of CO2 for a BEV is equal to 1.255 tons, higher than the 1.25 produced by a new vehicles with average emissions of 113,4 gCO2/km (2018).
This last extreme case highlights the fact e-mobility cannot be considered the absolute solution to face the emissions problems if it is not helped by a clean energy policy, which aims to the decarbonisation of the power generation sector. It is useless boosting the market to introduce EVs but in parallel produce energy mainly from sources of carbon fossil origin.
Conclusions
PEVs and EVSE Final Considerations and Forecasts: The first observation that analysis have
highlighted is the state of backwardness of the Italian market compared to the most important European countries. At June 2018 the EVs new registrations have been equal to 0,39% of the total new registrations while they represent only the 0,035% of the current cars fleet in Italy.
The backwardness shown from the difficulties of EVs diffusion, is reflected also in the current inadequacy of the charging infrastructures. The public charging stations number of Italy, among the countries analysed, is the lowest one. Moreover, the most part of the public stations is represented by slow chargers that guarantee charging times on the order of hours that cannot satisfy the needs of drivers in the long journeys.
22 In the following table are illustrated the two sceneries in which is estimated the number of circulating EVs according to the two sceneries and the number of charging stations according the forecasts of ENEL. 2018 2025 2030 #PEVS 17.570 1.207.111 3.523.991 # PEVs/Charging Positions 5,31 40 100 Total # Charging Positions 3.124 25.000 30.000
Table xi-Current number of PEVs and number of PEVs forecasted by EU for 2025 and 2030, charging positions and charging positions forecasted by ENEL for 2025 and 2030
With this number of forecasted BEVs some considerations are made also for the national electric system and its stability. Each BEV consumes in average 1640 kWh in a year.
Considering the actual number of BEVs in Italy, which numbers to 9.300 units (data updated to June 2018), their total demand of electricity is equal to 15,25 GWh, a consumption equivalent to that of 5.650 families. In Italy the total demand of electricity counts for 322 TWh, so it means that the EVs demand corresponds only to 0,0047%, while considering the Italian production equal to 288 TWh, EVs consumptions are equivalent to 0,0053%.
Considering the forecasts made in the previous paragraph, we are able to analyse the electricity demand required by the introduction in the next future of EVs, in particular BEVs.
Keeping always in consideration the previous levels of consumptions, it is possible to say that in the first scenery (2025), the total electricity required by 652.674 circulating BEVs running 11.000 km yearly is equal to 1,1 TWh. Therefore comparing to the total current demand (322 TWh), it would be equivalent to 0,35 %, while comparing to the Italian production forecasted in 2025 (292 TWh) it would be equivalent to 0,38%.
Passing to the analysis of 2030 scenery the number of BEVs is going to grow and consequently even the request of electricity for the mobility sector. Assuming the data previously computed, the forecasted BEVs for 2030 are 2.193.450 and the total electricity they require is equal to 3,6 TWh. This level is equivalent to 1,1 % of the current demand (322 TWh) and to 1,2% of the production forecasted for 2030 scenery (304 TWh).
The two levels of additional electricity forecasted for 2025 and 2030 should not represent such a big obstacle for the stability of the national electric system.
23
Considerations about incentives: Reaching the targets imposed by EU for 2025 and 2030 seems
very difficult, almost impossible, especially keeping in consideration the actual system of incentives. Indeed nowadays in Italy, direct incentives for the purchase do not exist, with the exception of some realities such as Bolzano province. There is only the exemption of the circulation tax, and some local incentives such as free parking, no ZTL…
Analysing TCO it is emerged that, although along all the life cycle a BEV does not result so much inconvenient as resulted only from the purchase price analysis, the price still has a relevant incidence. The only case that makes convenient the purchase of an electric car is the one in which there is an initial incentive equal to 7.500 €, which makes competitive an EV with a conventional car. This result confirms the importance of incentives in this initial phase of the market, in which the price of EVs is still elevate. According to Bloomberg, in 2024- 2025 EV price will become equivalent to the price of a conventional one and so the scenery highlighted by the TCO of this last case would be real (the decrease of the purchase price would be equivalent to an incentive).
CO2 emissions analysis: The personal analysis has been conducted on the in-use phase with the
scope to demonstrate that to evaluate real EVs emissions, it is fundamental consider the emissions generated even to produce electricity depending from the energy mix used.
It is clear that if to produce energy, carbon fossil sources are mainly used, especially coal, the emissions globally generated are higher than those created by conventional ICE vehicles (case three). From the study, it is emerged that looking only at in-use phase, with the current energy mix of Italy, a BEV can guarantee CO2 savings. Further benefits would come from the achievement of 2025 SEN scenery, which forecast a growth of the renewables energies.
It is obvious that with the actual diffusion level of BEVs the advantages are limited; only with a diffusion on large scale of EVs we could obtain significant benefits.
The sustainability of the transportation sector will be reached in parallel with the decarbonisation of the energy generation sector. This correlation is what it is emerged and confirmed by the analysis conducted.
Final considerations about Italian market: It is highlighted an important peculiarity of the Italian
market, which differentiates Italy from all the other countries. Indeed Italy has a good part of its cars fleet (almost the 8%) composed by alternative fuel vehicles (especially CNG and LPG cars), which make the country the leader of this kind of vehicle in Europe.
If we zoom out the perspective, considering the alternative fuel vehicles as the set of vehicles not working with petrol and diesel, we can obtain a wider point of view. Substantially, we consider in this category mainly EVs, HV, LPG and CNG vehicles. If we look at the European landscape with
24 this new perspective, Italy becomes the new leader in the registrations, in particular thanks to gas vehicles.
It is possible to conclude that Italy is trying to develop in parallel with the diffusion of e-mobility also the diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles. It is possible to compare in the role of gas vehicles in this phase to the one covered by PHEVs and HVs. The diffusion of LNG use could be a further improvement of this kind of fuel, representing a future mainstream even for heavy vehicles and maritime transport.
Moreover, in the future with the development of biomethan on large scale, gas vehicles could represent a real option for a complete achievement of a sustainable mobility.
It is evident e-mobility will play a fundamental role in the future and it will be core if we want to reach a sustainable and zero emission mobility. However, it is equally evident that there are other ways to keep in consideration to reach this objective. Differentiate the strategies could be the key to solve some current problems and to lighten the responsibilities of e-mobility, that in any case will play the main role.
Another consideration equally evident is the strong linkage between the energy sector and the transportation one. The sustainability progresses of the second will depend mainly from the ones obtained in the next future by the first. This is clear enough.
25
1. Introduction
Mobility can be defined as the “movement of individuals or groups from place to place” and it has always represented a crucial issue in the human history. It has always been one of the main factors deeply characterizing society and people’s lifestyle . Just think how the recent improvements in transportation, in terms of efficiency and speed, have changed society compared to the past: nowadays the world is extremely connected thanks to the movements’ ease.
Especially mobility has been a field characterized by many innovations along the years and currently one of them is surely the electrification of vehicles, called e-mobility. This solution allows to substitute internal combustion engines with zero emissions and no-noise electrical engines. This represents a clear change in the automotive industry, which historically has gone hand in hand with combustion engines and consequently with the oil industry.
In recent years, e-mobility has been one of the main trends to focus on in the transportation sector. The evolution of new technologies, the fuels’ prices, the sustainability issues, such as the rising number of vehicles on the roads and the consequent rising of global emissions, have brought e-mobility to become a core issue for the contemporary society. New technologies should allow implementing solutions in the e-mobility field able to better satisfy customer needs, overcoming past technical aspects. The continuous growth of fuels’ price is forcing to adopt alternatives in transportation, different from the historical combustion engines. Another influencing factor is the goal to reach a sustainable mobility, with zero emission vehicles that can cross the cities without emitting noise and harmful gasses. In parallel with the transition to renewable resources, that would allow also an electricity production with zero emissions, e-mobility could guarantee an almost total sustainability of transportation. However, until electricity is produced mostly with fossil fuels, one cannot talk about the e-vehicles as a completely zero emission solution.
Currently in order to counter climate change, governments set goals to reduce human impact on the earth and to reach a more sustainable lifestyle. This is the goal of the “2020 climate & energy package” set by the EU, which aims to cut 20% of greenhouse emissions (from 1990 levels), to produce 20% of EU energy from renewables and to improve the energy efficiency by 20%. In this plan, transportation plays a fundamental role, being responsible of 23% of global C02 emissions, responsible almost of the 50% of the energetic consumption arising from oil and responsible of 20% of world energy consumption.
In this sense, e-mobility could represent a potential solution for transportation problems. Nevertheless, it still shows some weaknesses that have to be solved in order to definitely change the
26 market. Problems such as the battery autonomy, the number of recharging points, the charge speed and the price of e-vehicles still represent obstacles to make e-vehicles become a mainstream choice in the automotive market. For this reason in the introduction phase, the e-vehicles will be supported by clear policies of countries who should boost their diffusion at national level.
E- Mobility represents a light for the future, but it still has to be explored deeply to understand how to fully exploit its potential and how to overcome its actual limits and weaknesses. As it was previously mentioned, the optimal solution will be reached when there will be a complete (or almost total) transition to renewable energies and the consequent decarbonisation across the whole life cycle.
27
2. Theoretical Introduction
2.1. E-vehicles Description
In order to start to talk about e-mobility, it is necessary to make a clarification among the different types of existing vehicles.
Figure 1 - Vehicles' types
The first type represents the classic vehicle with an internal combustion engine, the actual mainstream choice in the market. It guarantees high performances, an accessible list price and a wide range of models sold on the market. The main problems are the growing fuel price to power these vehicles and the high levels of emissions produced by this kind of engines, currently a crucial issue for the cities. The second type represents vehicles having both electrical and internal combustion propulsion/traction. Therefore, these vehicles have two engines, one electrical and one petrol/diesel fuelled. The electrical engine begins to work when the vehicle starts, thanks to the batteries’ energy and it gives the power necessary to reach low speeds. After reaching a certain speed and when higher power is needed, the petrol engine starts to work. This solution, due the presence of the two engines, allows to reach higher performances than the classical ICE. At the same time, hybrid vehicles allow to save fuel and to partially reduce emissions. Not being a plug-in car, the battery of HV cannot be charged from the electricity network. The battery of a HV is charged in two ways: transforming the energy usually wasted in braking or during the deceleration phase; transforming into electricity the energy generated by the petrol engine when the battery charge level is under a certain threshold. This kind of system is typically adopted by companies such as Toyota Motor Company, which leads global sales for this kind of vehicles.
28 The third type of vehicle is a Parallel Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle. It is a hybrid car, with two different engines, such as the one previously described. The difference is that the battery can be charged even from the electricity network. This allows to have batteries with higher capacity than those of the normal HV, with greater autonomies in electric mode (almost 50 km). To charge the battery from the electricity network, a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle uses the same connectors and the same charging infrastructures as the pure electric vehicles. Moreover the battery, such as in a HV, is also charged transforming into electricity the energy usually wasted in braking phase. PHEVs often are parallel Plug-In vehicles, with the two different engines operating in parallel; both give traction to the car, on their own or in combination. The ICE works mainly only when the vehicle requires a maximum efficiency. In this way there is an emissions’ reduction. The advantage of this type of vehicle is that it is perfect to be used on short distances (in electric modality), but at the same time, due to its hybrid nature, it can be used on larger distances then pure electric vehicles. The market offers a good range of choices, especially for high level cars.
The fourth type of vehicle is a particular kind of PHEV, identified by the term EREV (Extended-Range Electric Vehicles). In these hybrid cars, the internal combustion engine is used only to generate electricity to charge the battery. Therefore, the traction is generated solely by the electric engine. These cars are also called Series Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles to be distinguished from the parallel ones, previously described. Substantially they are electric cars using a combustion engine to extend their travelling capacity. Indeed, these cars are chosen by people who want an electric car but they don’t trust their autonomy. The main problem is that, due to the additional engine, the EREVs are more expensive than the pure electrical vehicles.
The last type of vehicle is the pure electric car, also called Electric Vehicle (EV) or Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV). It is characterized by the absence of an internal combustion engine; so the vehicle traction is given only by the electric engine using the energy stored in the traction battery. The most used batteries in electric vehicles are lithium ion batteries Ion) and lithium polymers batteries (Li-Po). The battery is charged using the electricity network, in particular through the charging stations, which could provide alternating current or direct current. As the hybrid models previously described, the battery is charged transforming into electricity the energy usually wasted in braking phase as well. This mechanism allows enhancing the vehicle autonomy, which depends mainly from the traction battery capacity. This represents one of the main problems associated to EVs together with the speed charge. On the other hand, EVs represent the best possible solution in terms of emissions, being zero emission cars. At the moment, the market does not offer a wide range of models with this kind of engine configuration, although the market in the last few years is growing. Indeed several automotive
29 industries are planning to enlarge their pure electric vehicles offer. For example, Volkswagen is going to produce three million of electric vehicles within 2025 and commercialising eighty new electric models.
30 2.2. E-vehicles Supply Equipment (EVSE) Description
2.2.1. Charging modes
It is possible to identify four different charging modes, three in alternating current and one in direct current. These four modes are defined by the standard IEC 61851-1 of 2010.
Figure 2- Charging mode number 1
Mode 1: it is a direct connection between the EV and the outlet. There is not a control box. Normally
this charging mode is not used to load cars, but only for light vehicles such as scooters, little vehicles and bicycles. This allows low charges in alternating current with a charging time of 6-8 h and it needs a power of 3-7 kW.
Figure 3- Charging mode number 2
Mode 2: in this case on the cable there is a control box (called PWM), a device guaranteeing safety
conditions during the charging phase. It is possible to use outlets supporting 32 A of electricity and 250 V single phase or 480 V three-phases. It needs a power of 3-7 kW. This kind of outlet, such as the previous one, allows only slow charge in alternating current.
Figure 4 - Charging mode number 3
Mode 3: there is a charging controller inside the station and connected to the vehicle charger. A PWM
31 current, and it needs a power of 3-22 kW. With this kind of mode, it is possible to make slow (6-8 h), quick (1-2 h) and fast (20-30 min) charge.
Figure 5 - Charging mode number 4
Mode 4: with this system, the charge is made in direct current and at 200 A - 400 V. It is able to
make fast charge (10-15 min). It needs a power higher than 22 kW.
2.2.2. Connectors
Each connector is used to charge vehicles with a specific mode.
Charging Modes
Connector Mode 1 Mode 2 – Mode 3 Mode 4
Shuko Type 1 Type 2 Type 3A Type 3C CHAdeMO CCS Combo
Table 1-Type of connectors and their relative charging modes
Below the different types of connectors are described.
Shuko: it is the traditional domestic outlet, used to charge vehicles in mode 1.
Type 1 – Yazaki: single phase, two
pilot contacts, max 32A - 230V -7,4 kW, it is only on the vehicle.
32
Type 2 – Mennekes: single/three
phases, two pilot contacts, max 32A – 230V/400V, it is both on the vehicle and on charging stations.
Type 3A – Scame: single phase, one
pilot contact, max 16A – 230V, it is used only for light vehicles.
Type 3C – Scame: single/three phases,
two pilot contacts, max 32A/ 63A – 230V/400V, it is only on charging stations.
CHAdeMO: it is the most diffused
standard in the world for the fast charging in direct current. Vehicles using this system have two connectors: CHAdeMO for fast charging in DC and a connector for charging in AC.
Combo CCS: the standard CCS
(Combined Charging System) is a single connector, present on the vehicle, which allows both the fast charging in DC and the slow one in AC. It is realised starting from the Type 2 connector.
33
Tesla SC: the Tesla Supercharger is a system of
480-volt DC fast-charging station. Each Supercharger is set at 120 kW but it can reach 145 kW. The charging stations can charge a 85 kWh battery up to 80% in 40 minutes and up to 100% in 75 minutes. Tesla used the standardized IEC 62196 Type 2 connector for its cars and it is the only manufacturer offering a DC charge with this standard.
34
3. EVSE Analysis
3.1. Global Overview
Figure 6 - Global EV charging outlets, 2010-2017 (Source “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA report)
The graphic in figure 6 represents an overview about global charging outlets. It is possible to see a constant growth of the number of chargers since 2010, especially of the private slow ones. In parallel, there was also a growth of public slow chargers.
The diffusion of EVs depends strongly on the growth of charging Infrastructures. Therefore, their future success will be influenced by charging infrastructures’ availability. In 2017, private chargers at residences and workplaces were estimated almost 3 million worldwide, while charging outlets on private property for fleets (primarily buses) arrive almost at 366.000 units (mostly in China).
Figure 7 - Electric car stock and publicly accessible charging outlets by type and country, 2017 (Source “Global EV Outlook 2018”, IEA report)
A particular focus has to be put on public chargers: indeed they will be an important component of the EV supply infrastructures. At the moment, most of the publicly accessible chargers are slow
35 charging chargers. Public chargers are the most important ones in order to increase the appeal of EVs allowing drivers to run long distances and to avoid range anxiety. Moreover, these kind of chargers are especially important in urban environments due to land availability constraints, such as in densely populated cities.
Figure 8 - Ratio of publicly accessible charging outlets per electric car for selected countries
As shown by the figure above, the largest electric car stock is held by China and the US. China holds the record concerning the number of publicly accessible charging stations as well, both for the slow chargers and the fast ones. The high number of fast chargers in China is due to the low level of private EVs in favour of the higher utilisation rate of non-private vehicles, such as government fleets and taxis, more dependent on fast charging to fulfil their daily trips.
Japan maintains the level of the slow chargers and fast ones almost constant, both at the same level of electric car stock.
Norway, holding the market with the highest electric car sales share globally in 2017, shows at the contrary a low number of publicly accessible charging stations. Indeed, according to IEA survey results, Norwegian EVs owners prefer private home charging.
Netherlands shows the highest ratio at global level between EVSE and the number of electric cars. It is already able to reach and to overcome the EU 2020 target.
In general, it is not simple explaining the differences about the trend of charging stations in relation with EVs one across the countries. Indeed the EVs market is still in the early stages and so the market dynamics are not clear yet.
3.2. European overview
In the following picture, moving to a more detailed perspective, it is possible to look at the general overview of public charging stations at European level. The charging stations are subdivided in five typologies (normal charge, type – 2AC, CHAdeMO, CCS, Tesla SC) and analysed numerically for each category.
36
Figure 9- Europe (EU+Efta+Turkey): total number of publicly accessible charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
Normal Charge Type – 2AC CHAdeMO CCS Tesla SC
118.668 4.998 6.211 5.504 2.996
85,8% 3,6% 4,4% 4,0% 2,2%
Figure 10 - Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage
Looking at the graph it’s easy to see there has been a significant growth of the total number of charging stations since 2010. From 3.200 normal charging stations, it has grown to almost 140.000 charging stations (comprehending the different charging modes). Most of the charging stations are still normal chargers (<22kW) that represent the 85% of the total, followed by the CHAdeMO, CCS and Type – 2AC chargers. Tesla Superchargers represent a niche market, whose diffusion is heterogeneous among the European country.
The as-is situation can be considered a good starting point, especially considering the situation of almost ten years ago. The main problem is that most of the charging points is still composed by slow chargers, which represent a big constraint for long journeys.
3.2.1. ACEA study: distribution of EV charging points cross the EU
Narrowing down to the EU, it is possible to exploit the ACEA study, to make some considerations about the number of charging stations in relation with the goals set by the EU. The EU proposal to set the target of 15% of EVs within 2025 and a target of 30% within the 2030 seems to be not realistic. Indeed, there is a severe lack and an unbalanced distribution of charging points in the EU, which is putting consumers off buying electric cars.
37
Figure 11-Charging points in EU (“Electric cars: unrealistic CO2 targets proposed by EU Parliament ignore lack of charging points ”Source ACEA)
A new study (conducted by ACEA) provides a much-needed reality check for the Parliament, showing that the CO2 targets proposed by some MEPs are simply unattainable given these issues with infrastructure.
Today, there are 100.000 charging points for electric vehicles in the EU. At least two million will be needed by 2025, according to conservative estimates by the European Commission. That means there should be, at a very minimum, a twenty-fold increase within the next seven years (Source ACEA). According to Erik Jonaert (ACEA Secretary General), the EU needs to be aware that without radical actions by the member states, the CO2 reduction goals can not be reached. Given the actual situation end the actual efforts of the single countries, ACEA is concerned that the 30% CO2 reduction proposed by the European Commission is overly challenging.
The Parliament is now proposing even more aggressive CO2 targets, setting a 50% reduction goal. However, according to EU Climate Action Commissioner Cañete, a 50% reduction target would require 700.000 new charging points for electric cars to be installed every year from now on. This would mean a total of 8.4 million new charging points over the next 12 years, 84 times more than today. This clearly represents an unrealistic goal.
Another interesting consideration coming out from the recent ACEA study is the geographical concentration of the charging points. Indeed, 76% of the charging points in EU are concentrated in just four countries which cover only 27% of the EU’s total surface area (Netherlands, Germany,
38 France and UK). There are some countries with a very low number of charging points, such as Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, Latvia and Malta, which in total only reach up to 452 charging stations. In conclusion, it is possible to deduct two things from the study: the future CO2 reductions depend on greater sales of EVs, which in their turn depend on a dense network of charging infrastructures. ACEA suggests the EU to include in its policies a mid-term reality check to assess the availability of an adequate number of charging points, allowing the targets to be adapted accordingly.
In the following section the situation of the single countries will be analysed more in detailed.
3.3. Countries’ overview
To have a more significant measure of the diffusion of publicly accessible charging stations, it is useful to put the number of chargers in relation with the number of PEVs. In this way, it is possible to understand if the number of public chargers is effectively adequate to the number of the EVs present on the country’s roads. In this perspective is possible to notice, for example, the case of Norway, whose index is influenced by the high number of circulating EVs.
Figure 12- Number of PEV per Charging Position per each country (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
Country Norway Sweden France Germany Italy Netherland
s Number of Charging Position 10.884 5.236 16.426 25.431 3.124 34.832 Number of PEV per 18,76 11,46 8,35 6,1 5,31 3,66
39
Charging Position
Table 2-Number of charging position and Number of PEV per Charging position for the main European Countries
40 3.3.1. Italy
Figure 13- Italy: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
Normal Charge Type – 2AC CHAdeMO CCS Tesla SC
2.582 84 124 106 228
82,7% 2,6% 4,0% 3,4% 7,3%
Table 3-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Italy)
Italy has almost doubled the number of its publicly accessible charging stations since 2014, although compared with the other countries this number is still low. There is still a large prevalence of normal chargers, representing almost the 80% of the total. Although Tesla Superchargers represent a niche market, in Italy they are quite widespread . Indeed, they represent almost the 10% of the total number at European level, while the normal chargers represent only the 2% at European level. CHAdeMO and CCS chargers are found a bit under the European level (almost half a percentage point), while Type-2AC is almost one percentage point under the European level.
If we put in relation the number of chargers with the number of EVs present on Italian roads, we obtain that for every charger there are almost five EVs. This number is relatively low mainly because the number of EVs in Italy is still low, compared with the other European countries. This confirms once again the Italian delay in the e-mobility sector. Therefore, if in the future the number of EVs circulating on Italian roads will grow, the infrastructure will have to grow.
In Italy there’s a program dedicated to the development of the charging points’ network for the EVs called Pnire, “Piano Nazionale Infrastrutturale per la ricarica dei veicoli ad energia elettrica” (adopted with the Dpcm of the 26th September of 2014). It aims to define specific guidelines targeted to
41 guarantee a unitary development of e-charge at national level, keeping in consideration the different needs of the distinct areas. The needs for each area are evaluated in terms of the actual traffic congestion profiles, the local air pollution criticalities and the development of the urban and extra urban roads network.
Recently the Pnire has been updated. The Italian Ministry of Infrastructures agreed to a program with the Regions to develop the charging points’ network according with European goals (Gazzetta Ufficiale 20/06/2018). The program plans Regions’ investments of 72,2 million euro, to which the Ministry adds a co-financing of 27,7 millions of euro aimed to realize “Piano Nazionale Infrastrutturale per la ricarica dei veicoli ad energia elettrica”. Lombardy will receive the largest amount of resources (to its 14,4 million euro of investments will correspond a Ministry co-financing of 4,3 million euro). The project presented by the Regions has to guarantee that co-financing quote represents:
- 35% of the project value for slow/fast chargers (the charging station must have at least one outlet with 22 kW power)
- 50% of the project value for quick chargers or domestic ones 3.3.2. Norway
Figure 14 - Norway: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
Normal Charge Type – 2AC CHAdeMO CCS Tesla SC
8.617 0 922 877 420
42
Table 4-Number of charging stations per type and respective percentage (Norway)
Norway represents the main market for e-mobility in Europe, so it is interesting and fundamental to analyse. In Norway, the growth of the number of chargers has been quite constant since 2010. As we previously said, the number of public chargers in Norway is still low in relation with the number of circulating EVs. In fact, if the Norwegian EVs represent 18% in the European market, the public chargers represent only 8%. This happens because Norway has aimed to spread the private chargers and so they are largely available. Compared to the rest of Europe, Norway has focused its efforts on the diffusion of CHAdeMO and CCS chargers (reaching almost a level of 8%) while it has completely avoided installing Type – 2AC chargers.
The main policies (from IEA Nordic EV Outlook 2018) adopted by the Norwegian government to boost the creation of new charging stations are:
- for parking lots and parking areas of new buildings, a minimum amount of 6% has to be allocated to electric cars.
- the 2018 budget allocated to housing associations for installing chargers doubles the 2017 budget to NOK 20 million (USD 2.4 million).
3.3.3. Netherlands
Figure 15 - Netherlands: total number of charging positions (Source “eafo, European Alternative Fuel Observatory”)
Normal Charge Type – 2AC CHAdeMO CCS Tesla SC
34.021 0 333 323 42
98% 0% 1% 0,9% 0,1%
