• Non ci sono risultati.

Controlling inflation in a cointergrated vector autoregressive model with an application to us data

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Condividi "Controlling inflation in a cointergrated vector autoregressive model with an application to us data"

Copied!
53
0
0

Testo completo

(1),N+, NWV,+5WAv W5AWANA, #,+A,A 6 ,W5. ,NW `Lh!?} @Tih , L 2ff%2. L?|hL**?} W?@|L? ? @ L?|i}h@|i_ ViU|Lh |Lhi}hitti L_i* | @? TT*U@|L? |L N5 #@|@ 7ƒijA cNBAtjA @?_ lB|BiAB ctj,t. #W 6W,5wc 5 #,W E6W.

(2) ** h}|t hitihi_ L T@h| Lu |t T@Tih 4@) Mi hiThL_Ui_ ? @?) uLh4 |L| Tih4ttL? Lu |i @|Lh. U 2ff 5 aL@?ti? @?_ k ati*t h?|i_ ? W|@*) ? 6iMh@h) 2ff ,hLTi@? N?iht|) W?t|||i @_@ 6itL*@?@ WDffS 5@? #L4i?UL E6W W|@*).

(3) L?|hL**?} ?@|L? ? @ UL?|i}h@|i_ iU|Lh @|Lhi}hitti 4L_i* | @? @TT*U@|L? |L N5 _@|@ 5ƒhi? aL@?ti? @?_ k@|@h?@ ati*t #iT@h|4i?| Lu ,UL?L4Ut ,hLTi@? N?iht|) W?t|||i @_@ 6itL*@?@ DffS 5@? #L4i?UL _ 6itL*i E6W W|@*) a@?@h) 2ff Devwudfw Wkh qrwlrqv ri lqvwuxphqw/ lqwhuphgldwh wdujhw dqg qdo wdujhw duh ghqhg lq wkh frqwh{w ri wkh frlqwhjudwhg YDU1 D wdujhw ydul0 deoh lv vdlg wr eh frqwuroodeoh li lw fdq eh pdgh vwdwlrqdu| durxqg d ghvluhg wdujhw ydoxh e| xvlqj wkh lqvwuxphqw1 Wklv fdq eh h{0 suhvvhg dv d frqglwlrq rq wkh orqj0uxq lpsdfw pdwul{1 Dsso|lqj d frqwuro uxoh wr lqwhuyhqh lq wkh pdunhw fkdqjhv wkh g|qdplfv ri wkh surfhvv dqg wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh qhz frqwuroohg surfhvv kdyh wr eh ghulyhg1 Wkh wkhruhwlfdo uhvxowv duh dssolhg wr XV prqhwdu| gdwd rq d gdlo| dqg prqwko| edvlv1 Wkh hpslulfdo uhvxowv gr qrw surylgh vxssruw iru wkh zlgho| khog eholhi wkdw wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn fdq eulqj XV FSL lqdwlrq grzq e| lqfuhdvlqj wkh ihghudo ixqgv udwh1 Nh|zrugv= Lqdwlrq Wdujhw/ Prqhwdu| Lqvwuxphqwv/ Frqwuro Uxohv MHO Fodvvlfdwlrq= F6/ H8.

(4) . W?|hL_U|L?. L?i|@h) TL*U) hi@U|L? h*it @i hiUi?|*) LM|@?i_ @ *L| Lu @||i?|L? Ai Lh}?@* _i@c €ht| t}}it|i_ M) A@)*Lh Ebb

(5) c @t |L _itUhMi @ Ui? |h@* M@?!<t TL*U) _iUtL?t M) @ t4T*i h*i |@| @ttLU@|i_ U@?}it ? |i 4L?i|@h) ?t|h4i?| | |i _tUhiT@?U) Mi|ii? |i |@h}i| @h@M*i @?_ |t _ithi_ @*i @?_ | |i t|@|i Lu |i iUL?L4) t44@h3i_ M) tL4i !i) 4@UhLiUL?L4U @h@M*it 6h|ih _ii*LT4i?|t @i ?U*_i_ _gihi?| 4L_i*t @?_ @TThL@Uit EuLh@h_ *LL!?} h@|L?@* i TiU|@|L?t ihtt @_@T|i i TiU|@|L?tc 4UhL uL?_@|L?t ihtt ?L tU uL?_@ |L?tc tii uLh i @4T*i |i UL**iU|i_ T@Tiht ? A@)*Lh Ebbbc *@h_@c B@* @?_ Bih|*ih EbbH @?_ hiuihi?Uit |ihi? Lt| Lu |i @TT*U@|L?t UL?|@? |i uL**L?} i*i4i?|tG @ uLh4*@|L? Lu @ 4L?i|@h) TL*U) h*i uLh |i Ui?|h@* M@?!c it|4@|L? Lu @ 4L_i* uLh |i iUL?L4) Et@**) @ V+c _ih@|L?t Lu |i 4T*U@|L?t Lu |i ThLTLti_ h*ic @?_ €?@**) @? ?it|}@|L? u 4L?i|@h) @|Lh|it @i uL**Li_ |i t}}it|i_ h*i W? }i?ih@*c |i T@Tiht _L ?L| @t! ?_ih U UL?_|L?t |i *|4@|i |@h}i|tc Lh |i }L@* @h@M*itc U@? Mi UL?|hL**i_ }i? |i ?t|h4i?|t @?_ |i 4iU@?t4t Lu |i iUL?L4) At t |i ThTLti Lu |i Thiti?| T@Tih Ai _@}h@4 ? A@M*i  **t|h@|it |i hi*@|L? Mi|ii? 4L?i|@h) ?t|h4i?|tc ?|ih4i_@|i @?_ €?@* |@h}i|t ELh }L@*t Ai Ui?|h@* M@?! U@?}it |i ?t|h4i?|t ? Lh_ih |L ?i?Ui |i }L@* @h@M*it @ tL4i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|t 6Lh i @4T*ic @ Ui?|h@* M@?!ih 4@) U@?}i |i hitihi hi^hi4i?|t Lu |i Th@|i M@?!t E^@?||) UL?|hL* |L ?i?Ui |i *ii* Lu 4L?i) t|LU! ? |i iUL?L4)c ?_ih |i @tt4T|L? |@| E |ihi t @ _hiU| hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? |i *ii* Lu 4L?i) t|LU! @?_ |i ThUi *ii* @?_ E |i *ii* Lu U@t@|L? }Lit uhL4 4L?i) t|LU! |L ThUit *|ih?@|i*)c @ Ui?|h@* M@?!ih 4@) U@?}i |i _tUL?| h@|i E_hiU| ThUi UL?|hL* Lh i?}@}i ? LTi? 4@h!i| LTih@|L?t E?_hiU| ThUi UL?|hL* ?_ih |i @tt4T|L? |@| |t ** ?i?Ui |i 4@h!i| ?|ihit| h@|itc @?_ ii?|@**) @}}hi}@|i _i4@?_ EB# }hL| @?_ 4L?i) _i4@?_ E4L?i) t|LU! .

(6) A@M*i G ,*i4i?|t Lu 4L?i|@h) TL*U) Lqvwuxphqwv=. Lqwhuphgldwh Wdujhwv. Ilqdo Wdujhwv.  Uhvhuyh uhtxluhphqwv rq sulydwh edqnv. $  Prqh| Vwrfn. $  Lqdwlrq Udwh. $  Pdunhw Lqwhuhvw. $  JGS Jurzwk.  Fhqwudo edqn lqwhuhvw udwhv.  Rshq pdunhw rshudwlrqv  Lqwhuyhqwlrqv lq wkh. Udwhv. $  H{fkdqjh udwhv. iruhljq fxuuhqf| pdunhw. $  Sxufkdvlqj Srzhu Sdulw|. W? Th@U|Ui |i |4i | |@!it uLh @ TL*U) ?|ihi?|L? |L ?i?Ui |i €?@* |@h}i| @t }i?ih@**) Mii? uL?_ |L Mi *L?} @?_ _U*| |L Thi_U|c ihi@t |i hitTL?ti Lu @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| t 4Lhi 44i_@|i @?_c |ihiuLhic i@tih |L it|4@|i i4ThU@**) LhiLihc |i ?|ihi?|L?t |@!i T*@Ui L? @ _@*) M@ttc M| |i ?@|L? h@|ic |i |@h}i| @h@M*ic t L?*) 4i@thi_ L? @ 4L?|*) M@tt Oi?Uic |i _hiU| i@*@|L? Lu |i €?@* 4T@U| Lu @ 4L?i|@h) ?|ihi?|L? L? |i }L@* @h@M*i t Lu|i? _U*| iU@ti Lu |t |i @ttitt4i?| Lu 4L?i|@h) TL*U) @t Lu|i? Mii? M@ti_ L? 4L_i*t UL?|@??} ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|t @?_ }L@* @h@M*itc M| ?L| ?iUitt@h*) |i ?t|h4i?| @h@M*it Ai T@Tih _i4L?t|h@|it |@| |t U@? t|** Mi @ @*_ ThLUi_hi u |i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| U@? Mi UL?|hL**i_ M) |i Ui?|h@* M@?! @|Lh|it @?_ u | UL?|i}h@|it | |i €?@* |@h}i| Ai i4ThU@* @TT*U@|L?c U t M@ti_ L? N5 _@|@c @TThL@Uit |i i4ThU@* @ttitt4i?| Lu |i TL*U) UL?|hL* ThLM*i4 ? |L *ii*tG W? |i €ht| t|iT i i @4?i i|ih |i 6i_ih@* +itihi @?! t @M*i |L UL?|hL* |i tLh||ih4 4@h!i| h@|i Eihi |i

(7) 4L?|t |M** h@|i t?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @t @? ?t|h4i?| W? |i tiUL?_ t|iT i i @4?i i|ih |i |M** h@|i U@? Mi UL?t_ihi_ @? @TThLTh@|i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|c _i€?i_ @t Mi?} UL?|i}h@|i_ | ?L?3ihL ULiUi?|t | |i €?@* |@h}i|c |i ?@|L? h@|i  M@tU @tt4T|L? ihi t |@| |i V+ 4L_i* t U@T@M*i Lu t@|t u@U|Lh*) _itUhM?} |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i _@|@ @?_ |@| |i i^@|L?t uLh 2.

(8) |i @h@M*it |@| @hi ?L| tMiU| |L ?|ihi?|L? hi4@? |i t@4i MiuLhi @t @u|ih |i ?|ihi?|L? W? tU @ 4L_i* i t@) |@| @ |@h}i| @h@M*i t UL?|hL**@M*i u | U@? Mi 4@_i t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ @ }i? 4i@? Atc uLh @ ?L?t|@|L?@h) |@h}i| @h@M*i i @?| |L @Uii ML| t|@|L?@h|) @?_ |i _ithi_ 4i@? 6Lh i@ti Lu i TLt|L?c |i }i?ih@* |iLh) uLh @TT*)?} @ *?i@h UL? |hL* h*i t }i? ? |i TTi?_ c ihi@t |i 4@? M*! Lu |i T@Tih _tUttit @ t4T*i h*i |@| @TTi@ht ?@|h@* uLh |i UL?|i}h@|i_ V+ 4L_i*t i UL?t_ih ihi Ai UL?|hL* ThLM*i4 t uLh4*@|i_ ? 5iU|L? 2G  uLh4@* _i€?|L? Lu @? ?t|h4i?|c @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|c @?_ @ €?@* |@h}i| t }i? @?_ @ ?@|h@* UL?|hL* h*i t uLh4*@|i_ |@| i T*L|t |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i V+ ThLUitt 5iU|L?

(9) _ihit |i ThLTih|it Lu |i UL?|hL**i_ ThLUittc i |i ThLUitt |@| @htit @t @ UL?ti^i?Ui Lu @TT*)?} |i _ihi_ UL?|hL* h*i @** |i |4i Ai i4ThU@* **t|h@|L? t _tUtti_ ? 5iU|L?t e @?_ D Ai UL? _|L? uLh UL?|hL**@M*|) Lu @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| t UiU!i_ ? 5iU|L? e t?} _@*) LMtih@|L?t Lu |i N5 ui_ih@* |@h}i| h@|ic |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i

(10) @?_ S 4L?|t |hi@th) M** h@|it 5iU|L? D ?it|}@|it i|ih |i 6i_ih@* +itihi @?! U@? UL?|hL* |i ?@|L? h@|ic }i? |i it|4@|i_ hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? |i ?t|h4i?|t @?_ |i ?|ih4i_ @|i |@h}i|t @?_ |i |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 Lu |i 4@UhLiUL?L4) Ai *@||ih t _itUhMi_ M) @ V+ Lu hi@* 4L?i)c L|T|c ?@|L? h@|ic |i f )i@ht ML?_ h@|ic |i

(11) @?_ S 4L?|t |hi@th) M** h@|itc |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|ic @?_ |i ui_ih@* |@h}i| h@|i 5iU|L? S UL?U*_it W? TTi?_  |i hit*|t L? |i }i?ih@* *?i@h UL?|hL* h*i @hi }i? @?_ TTi?_  UL?|@?t @hLt }h@Tt Lu |i _@|@. 2. #i€?|L? Lu |i UL?|hL* ThLM*i4. `i @tt4i |@| |i |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 Lu |i iUL?L4) U@? Mi _itUhMi_ M) |i UL?|i}h@|i_ V+E! 4L_i* }i? ? |i ihhLh ULhhiU|L?

(12).

(13) uLh4G . . {%|   ' kEq %|3  4 E|    > n. &3 [. K E{%|3   n 0| c | ' c    c Ac. '. E ihi %| t R_4i?tL?@*c k @?_ q @hi R  o Lu h@?! oc K t R  Rc  t R   @?_ 4 ' q   Ai ihhLht @hi _ | 4i@? 3ihL @?_ @h@?Ui l AL t4T*u) ?L|@|L? ? |t tiU|L? |i M@tU _i€?|L?t @hi ?|hL _Ui_ uLh |i UL?|i}h@|i_ V+E 4L_i* |L| |hi?_c i uLh K ' f uLh @** c  ' f Ai i^@|L? E |i? MiUL4it {%| ' kEq  %|3  > n 0| c. E2. U _i€?it @ UL?|i}h@|i_ UE ThLUitt u @?_ L?*) u |i T@h@4i|iht t@|tu) |i hit|hU|L? E

(14)  me}EUo n q  km c |@| tc |i i}i?@*it Lu Uo n q  k @i @MtL*|i @*i *itt |@? L?i W? |t U@ti |i ThLUitt t hiThiti?|i_ @t %| ' . | [. 0 n +| n  n kEq  k3 >c. '. ihi  _iTi?_t L? ?|@* @*it Eq   ' fc +| t t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? 3ihL @?_ i?Ui q  %| ' q  +| n> t t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? >c @?_ |i *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h t   ' qz Ekz qz 3 kz ' UR  kEq  k3 q  c. Ee. ihi kz t @ R  ER  o 4@|h Lu u** h@?!c tL |@| k kz ' f Wu k ' f EtL |@| |ihi t ?L i^*Mh4 ihhLh ULhhiU|L? |i? kz ' UR Ei R @|L?L4Lt t|LU@t|U |hi?_t ? |i _@|@c @?_ u k ' UR Ei %|  UEf |i? kz ' f E?L t|LU@t|U |hi?_t ? |i _@|@ L?_|L? E

(15)  4T*it  |@| q  k @t u** h@?!c @?_ |t t i^@*i?| |L mkz qz m 9' fc tL |@|   t i** _i€?i_ 5?Ui q %| t @ V+E ThLUitt | ULiUi?| 4@|h EUo n q  kc |i UL?_|L? uLh t|@|L?@h|) E

(16)  h*it L| ?| hLL|t @?_ e.

(17) Z|. . . ZW.  k  . ? rREqz  %| ?? ?  ?   V  k  k ??    ?      ?? ?   ?  V  k ?   ? ? ?  S| ?? ?   ? ? kz ' 0       ? ?  ?  ??  ?  ? ! -|.    %S|o   |" . 6}hi G | |i TL?| %| ' E-| c Z|  |i ThLUitt t 4Li_ |L %S|o M) | U@?}?} |i ?L4?@* ?|ihit| h@|i -|  Wu |i ihhLht ihi t|Ui_ Lgc |i ThLUitt L*_ 4Li uhL4 |t TLt|L? @*L?} |i _hiU|L? Lu k |L @ TL?| ihi ?@|L? Z| ' Z W  i T*Lti hLL|tc tii aL@?ti? EbbSc AiLhi4 e2 uLh ThLLut `i _i€?i |i @||h@U|Lh ti| M) i%mq  % ' >j ' kEq  k3 > n rREqz . ED. 6}hi  **t|h@|it |i @_t|4i?| _)?@4Ut Lu |i ThLUittc U uLh |i t4T*i V+E @hi }i? M) |i iU|Lht k 5?Ui |i) TL?| |L@h_t |i @||h@U|Lh ti|c |i ThLUitt t T**i_ |L@h_t |i *@||ih | @ uLhUi |@| _iTi?_t L? |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i _t|@?Ui q  %|  > Atc uLh TL?|t L? |i @||h@U|Lh ti| |i uLhUi t 3ihL @?_ |ihi t ?L |i?_i?U) |L 4Li @@)c @?_ tU TL?|t @hi U@**i_ i^*Mh4 TL?|t Lh t|i@_) S|  t|@|i TL?|t Ai UL44L? |hi?_t kz ' 0 Tt |i ThLUitt @*L?} |i @||h@U|Lh ti| @?_ }i?ih@|i |i ?L?t|@|L?@h) Mi@Lh Lu |i ThLUitt Ai tL*|L? Lu E2 | ?|@* @*i %f U@? @*tL Mi h||i? @t |3 [ %| ' EU? n kq  %f n EU? n kq   E0|3  k>  |. 'f. D. ES.

(18) Ai uL**L?} hit*| t M@ti_ L? ESG wi44@  6Lh |i UE ThLUitt %| }i? M) E2 |i i TiU|@|L? .E%| m%f  UL?ih}it |L %" ' *4 .E%| m%f  ' %f n kEq  k3 >c |<". |i *L?}h? i TiU|i_ @*ic U t @ TL?| ? |i @||h@U|Lh ti| hLLu 6hL4 |i hi*@|L?t   EUR n kq  | ' kz @?_ q  EUR n kq  | ' EUo n q  k| q  kz. | uL**Lt uhL4 ES |@|   %| m%f  ' kz %f c .Ekz. .Eq  %| m%f  ' EUo n q  k| q  %f  $ . S". 'f EUo. S|3. 'f EUo. n q  k q  k>. n q  k q  k> ' >. Oi?Uic t?} Ee i €?_ .E%| m%f  ' qz Ekz qz 3 .Ekz %| m%f nkEq  k3 .Eq  %| m%f  $ %f nkEq  k3 > iU@ti q  %" ' q  E%f n kEq  k3 > ' >c | uL**Lt |@| %" t ? |i @||h@U|Lh ti| EDc i t @? i^*Mh4c Lh t|i@_) t|@|i TL?| `i t@) |@| |i TLt|L? %f @4t @| |i *L?}h? i TiU|@|L? %"  5ii @*tL hLi|| Ebb.c h?i@ @?_ aL?_i@ Ebbbc @?_ i_? @?_ LtUL? E2fff. Ai uL**L?} _i€?|L?t @hi ?ii_i_ uLh |i _tUttL? Lu UL?|hL* |iLh) ? |ih4t Lu ?t|h4i?|tc ?|ih4i_@|i @?_ *|4@|i |@h}i|tG #i€?|L?  E W?t|h4i?| @h@M*it @ %| c E@ ER6 @i |i ThLTih|) |@| i U@? U@?}i |i4 M) @? ?|ihi?|L?c tL |@| |i @*i @ %| t hiT*@Ui_ M) @ %| n c uLh @?)  5 -6  S.

(19) E 6?@* Lh *|4@|i |@h}i| @h@M*it K %| c EK ER  6 @hi |i @h @M*it i L*_ *!i |L 4@!i t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? KW c |i _ithi_ |@h}i| @*i Ai |@h}i| tT@Ui t }i? M) |i TLt|L?t % U t@|tu) i%mK % ' KW j E W?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| @h@M*it S %| c ES ER6 @hi @h@M*it |@| @hi UL?|i}h@|i_ | |i €?@* |@h}i| K %| c tL |@| |ihi i t|t @ t|@|L?@h) hi*@|L? S %| n K %| ihi |i 4@|h  E6  6 @t u** h@?! u|ih @? ?|ihi?|L? |@| U@?}it |i Uhhi?| @*i Lu @ %| |L @ %| n  |i UL?|hL**i_ @*i Lu |i ThLUitt %| MiUL4itG %S|o 7z @z %S|o 7@ %S|o 7z @z%| n @7E@ %| n  ' %| n @ 7c | ' @ | n@ | ' @ ihi @ 7 ' @E@ @3 @?_ @ 7z t t4*@h*) _i€?i_ W? Th@U|Ui |i ?|ih i?|L?  ** _iTi?_ L? Uhhi?| @?_ *@}}i_ @*it Lu |i ThLUitt W| t @ 4@Lh @tt4T|L? ? |t T@Tih |@| u |i t@4i ?|ihi?|L? h*i t @TT*i_ @| @** |4i TL?|t |i i^@|L?t E ** }i?ih@|i @ ?i ThLUitt %?e |@!?} ?|L @UUL?| |i ?|ihi?|L?t M| L|ihti *i@?} |i T@ | h@4i|iht Lu |i 4L_i* ?U@?}i_ 6Lh @ _tUttL? Lu |i ?i ThLUitt tii 5iU|L?

(20)  #i€?|L? 2  ti| Lu |@h}i| @h@M*it K %| | |@h}i| @*i KW t UL?|hL* *@M*i M) |i ?|ihi?|L? @ %| @?_ |i UL?|hL* h*i EVc Vf  uc M) ?|ihi??} @| @** |4i TL?|t t?} %S|o 7EV %|  Vf c | ' %| n @ |i ?i ThLUitt @t |i ThLTih|) |@| |i |@h}i|c K %?e c MiUL4it t|@|L? | W @h) | 4i@? K  Atc |i igiU| Lu UL?|hL**?} @ ?L?t|@|L?@h) @h@M*i t T@h|*) |L hi4Li |i ?L?t|@|L?@h|) @?_ T@h|*) |L }i | |i _ithi_ 4i@? t @ t4T*i i @4T*i UL?t_ih @ V+ Lu ?@|L? h@|ic ?|ihit| h@|ic @?_ L|T| }@Tc %| ' EZ| c -| c E+  +W |  ..

(21) Ai Ui?|h@* M@?! @?|t |L @Uii @ _ithi_ ?@|L? h@|ic Z W ' 2Ic t?} |i ?|ihit| h@|i @t @? ?t|h4i?| W? |t U@ti K ' Ec fc fc @ ' Efc c f @?_ |i TLt|L?t ? |i |@h}i| tT@Ui |@| t@|tu) K %| ' KW @hi }i? M) Z| ' 2I  t4T*i UL?|hL* h*i t |L hiT*@Ui @ %| ' -| M) -| nc @?_ |i ThLM *i4 t L |L ULLti  ' V %|  Vf tL |@| K %| ' Z| MiUL4it t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ 2I ? |i ?i ThLUitt W? TTi?_  i _ihi ? AiLhi4 D @ ?iUitt@h) UL?_|L? uLh 4@!?} @ ?L?t|@|L?@h) |@h}i| @h@M*i t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ @ _ithi_ @*i M@ti_ L? @ }i?ih@* h*i  ' V %|  Vf  Oihi i uLUt L? |i _ih@|L? Lu @ t4T*i UL?|hL* h*i uLh @ ti| Lu ?L?t|@|L?@h) |@h}i|t | @ ?@|h@* ?|ihThi|@|L? hi*@|i_ |L |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i ThLUitt Ai _i@c **t|h@|i_ ? 6}hi c t |L 4Li |i ThLUitt |L @ UL? |hL**i_ TLt|L? %S|o | M) ULLt?} |i ?|ihi?|L?  tU |@|c u |i ihhLht ihi t|Ui_ Lgc |i ThLUitt %|n c  ' c 2c    c t|@h|?} @| %S|o | c L*_ UL?|?i |L@h_t @ TL?| ? |i |@h}i| tT@Ui A@| tc i ULLti  tL |@|  3  KW ' K E%S|o 7 n kEq  k3 >c | n kEq k > ' K EE%| n @. E.. tii wi44@  6Lh |i i^@|L?t |L @i @ tL*|L? uLh c |i uL**L?} UL?_|L? o@?&EK @ ' 6 EH @t |L Mi t@|t€i_ At _i€?it |i UL?_|L? uLh UL?|hL**@M*|)c tii AiLhi4 D ihi |i ThiUti hit*| t uLh4*@|i_ Wu mK @m 9' fc i^@|L? E. U@? Mi tL*i_ uLh  Uc t?} Eec }it t |i UL?|hL* h*i @7 ' @ 7EK 7@3 EKW  K kEq  k3 >  K %| . Eb. ' @EK @3 dKW  K %| n K kEq  k3 Eq  %|  >o Ai ?|ihi?|L? Eb ?ii_i_ |L T| |i ThLUitt L? |i h}| |h@U! _iTi?_t L? H.

(22)  KW  K %| c U t |i LMtihi_ _tUhiT@?U) Mi|ii? |i @*i Lu |i |@h}i| @h@M*i K %| @?_ |t _ithi_ |@h}i| @*i KW c  q  %|  >c U 4i@thit |i _i@|L? uhL4 t|i@_) t|@|i @| |i |4i Lu |i ?|ihi?|L? Wu |i iUL?L4) t ? t|i@_) t|@|ic @t _i€?i_ M) |i @||h@U|Lh ti| iq % ' >jc |i? |i _tUhiT@?U) Mi|ii? |i |@h}i| @?_ |i |@h}i| @*i _i|ih4?it |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i ?iUitt@h) ?|ihi?|L? | u |i iUL? L4) t @@) uhL4 t|i@_) t|@|ic |i? |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i t|i@_) t|@|i ihhLh @*tL @giU|t |i t3i Lu |i ?|ihi?|L? . L?|hL**@M*|) t _i€?i_ M) @ UL?_|L? L? |i i*i4i?|t Lu |i *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h c tii Eec U t _i€?i_ M) |i Lh|L}L?@* UL4 T*i4i?|t Lu k @?_ q AihiuLhic @ t|@|L?@h) @h@M*ic U t @ *?i@h UL4M?@|L? Lu q  %| c U@??L| Mi UL?|hL**i_ M) |t h*i W? |i t4T*i U@ti Lu L?i |@h}i| @?_ L?i ?t|h4i?|c UL?_|L? EH hi^hit |@| |i *L?}h? 4T@U| Lu @ tLU! E@? ?|ihi?|L? |L |i ?t|h4i?| @h@M*i L? |i |@h }i| @h@M*i 4t| ?L| Mi 3ihL AihiuLhic UL?|hL**@M*|) t ?UL?tt|i?| | *L?}h? ?i|h@*|) Lu |@h}i| |L ?t|h4i?| AL t44@h3ic i @i tii? |@| u mK @m 9' f | t TLttM*i |L _i€?i @ ?@|h@* UL?|hL* h*i M)  3 W    3  %S|o | ' %| n @EK @ dEK  K %|  n K kEq k Eq %|  >o. Ef. Ai h*i t UL?t|hU|i_ tL |@| |i TLt|L? %S|o | @4t @| |i |@h}i| @*ic |@| tc tL |@|  3 W K E%S|o | n kEq k > ' K . 6}hi 2 tLt L |i TL?| %| t 4Li_ M) |i 4L?i|@h) @ |Lh|it L?|L |i _L||i_ *?i ?Ui |ihic |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i ThLUitt ** |@!i | |L@h_t |i TL?| L? |i @||h@U|Lh ti| _i€?i_ M) |i _ithi_ |@h}i| @*i Z W c ThL_i_ | t 4Li_ M) |i Ui?|h@* M@?! |L |i _L||i_ *?i @| @** |4i TL?|t b.

(23)  %|3 a. . Z|. . . a a %S|o.   a |  a  C a    %|   & %      %S|o % ( %?e      |n % |n   ?     k   & ??   ?e  ?     %|n2? # i%mq  % ' >j   T ?     ??  ZW  V  k ??      # ?    V   ?? k  ? k  ?   ? ?? i@ E% n kEq  k3 > ' @W j ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ! -|. 6}hi 2G Ai TL?| %| t 4Li_ M) |i Ui?|h@* M@?! |L %S|o | c @?_ |i i^@|L?t }i?ih@|i |i TL?| %?e |n c U ? @ V+E2 4L_i* t M@ti_ S|o TL? %| @?_ %|  At TL?| t 4Li_ |L %S|o |n c @?_ |i i^@|L?t }i?ih@|i S|o S|o %?e |n2 uhL4 %|n @?_ %| . f.

(24)

(25). Ai ?i ThLUitt. ) @TT*)?} UL?|hL* h*i Ef |i ?t|h4i?| @h@M*i t 4Li_ |L @ ?i TLt|L?c %S|o | c uhL4 U |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i ThLUitt ii?|@**) ** Mh?} |i |@h}i| @h@M*i |L |i _ithi_ @*ic KW c }i? |@| |i ihhLht ihi t|Ui_ Lg |c t?Ui |i ThLUitt t tMiU| |L ?i _t|hM@?Uitc |i ThLUitt %|n c E ' c 2c    ** _hu| @@) uhL4 %S|o @?_ @t |L Mi | MhL}| M@U! |L @ ?i TLt|L? U @4t @| @ TL?|c uLh U KW t @Uii_ Atc |i @MLi UL?|hL* h*i @t |L Mi ti_ @| i@U TL?| Lu |4ic |ihiM) }i?ih@|?} @ ?i ThLUitt 6Lh |t ThLUitt |i |@h}i| @h@M*i MiUL4it t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ |i |@h}i| @*ic @t tL? Mi*Lc ThL_i_ |i UL?|hL**@M*|) UL?_|L? EH t t@|t€i_ Ai ThLLu Lu |t 4@? hit*| t }i? uLh @ }i?ih@* *?i@h UL?|hL* h*i Lu |i uLh4  ' V %|  Vf ? AiLhi4 D ? TTi?_  6Lh i@ti Lu i TLt|L? i uLUt ihi L? |i hit*| uLh |i tTiU@* U@ti Efc M| i? ?ii_i_ i ** hiuih |L tL4i Lu |i 4@? hit*|t ? TTi?_  `i €ht| }i @ hit*| uLh |i t4T*i 4L_i* E2 @?_ |i? uLh 4L_i* E LhL**@h) 2 tt4i |@| E |i UE ThLUitt %| t }i? M) {%| ' kEq  %|3  > n 0| c E mK @m 9' fc tii Eec @?_ E |i UL?|hL* h*i  3 W    3  %S|o | ' %| n @EK @ EK  K %| n K kEq k Eq %|  >. t @TT*i_ @| @** |4i TL?|t Ai? |i ?i ThLUitt %?e t @? UE UL? | |i}h@|i_ V+E ThLUitt | UL?|i}h@|?} tT@Ui tTEqc K @?_ @_t|4i?| tT@Ui tTEkc @ W| uL**Lt |@| E q  %?e t t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? >c E | K %?e t t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? KW c @?_ E K %?e t |i ?Lti | | | W   3 4i@? K  K kEq k > hLLu Ai hit*| uL**Lt uhL4 AiLhi4 D ? TTi?_ c M) ULLt?} V ' EK 7@3 K c @?_ Vf ' EK 7 @3 EKW  K kEq  k3 >c .

(26) tL |@| V t@|t€it |i hi*@|L?t V k ' fc U6 n V @7 ' f t t|@|L?@h) Oi?Uic |i UL?_|L? uLh t|@M*|) Eb t t@|t€i_ @?_ q  %?e |  ?e  3  | 4i@? >c @?_ V %| ' EK 7 @ K %| t |i ?Lti @hL?_ Vf ' EK 7@3 EKW  K kEq  k3 > 6hL4 Ee ?L|i |@| ' K %?e  K kEq  k3 q  %?e  K %?e | | | t t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? >c K %?e t t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ KW  iU@ti q  %?e | | W? TTi?_  | t tL? |@| |i UL?|hL* h*i V %|  Vf 4@!it V %| t|@|L?@h) AihiuLhic i UL*_ t4T*) ULLti V ' K |L 4@!i K %| t|@|L?@h)c M| |i hit*|t t4T*u) UL?t_ih@M*) u V k ' f 5?Ui q  %| t t|@|L?@h) ? |i UL?|hL**i_ ThLUittc |i ULUi Lu V ' K n q1c uLh tL4i 1c L*_ @*tL 4@!i K %| t|@|L?@h) AihiuLhic i ULLti @ 1 tL |@| V k ' K k n 1  q  k ' fc U }it 1  ' K kEq  k3 @?_ V ' K  K kEq  k3 q  ' K  u|ih ?Lh4@*3@|L? |t t ThiUti*) h*i Ef ? UE ThLUitt %| }i? M) E @t @ *?i@h |hi?_ | `i _i€?i K ' UR . &3 [.  K c @?_  ' qz Ekz Kqz 3 kz . '. `i @TT*) h*i Ef |L |i _i|hi?_i_ t|@U!i_ ThLUittc tii AiLhi4 S ? TTi?_  AiLhi4

(27) Wu E |i UE ThLUitt %| t }i? M) |i V+E& 4L_i* Ec E mK @m 9' fc @?_ E i @TT*) |i hiUhti*) _i€?i_ UL?|hL* h*i S&3 ?e  3  ?e S|o %S|o ' %  @EK @ K dE%  |  | | | ' K E%|3  E|  o 7 n@EK @3 EKW  K EUR  Kq>. E. @| @** |4i TL?|tc @?_ |i ?i ThLUitt t _i€?i_ M) %?e |n. '. %S|o |. n. kEq  %S|o |. .  4 |  > n. &3 [ '. 2. K E{%S|o |n3   n 0|n c. E2.

(28) S|o  |i? |i t|@U!i_ ThLUitt E%?e c %S|o | |3 c    c %|3&n  t @ UL?|i}h@|i_ V+E ThLUitt | q  %?e @?_ K %?e |hi?_ t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ > n 4 | @?_ KW n | | S S|o K | LhiLih K E%?e  &3 | ' K %|3  t |i ?Lti @hL?_ |t 4i@?. W| t tL4i|4it UL?i?i?| |L hih|i |i UL?|hL* h*i @t @ u?U|L? Lu |i i^*Mh4 ihhLhtc q  %?e c _i@|L? Lu |@h}i| uhL4 _ithi_ |@h}i|c | @?_ €?@**) |i _gihi?Uit Lu |i ThLUittG ?e %S|o  @EK @3 dK E%?e  |  KW | ' %| | 7  %?e  4 |  > n K  S&3 K E%?e  %S|o  o nK EK  UR qEq | | |3 ' E

(29) . hLLu At hit*| uL**Lt uhL4 AiLhi4 Sc M) |i ULUi @3 K c V ' EK 7 @3 K K3 c  ' 2c    c & V ' EK 7 @?_. 7 Vf ' EK 7 @3 EKW  K EUR  Kq>. iU@ti k V ' fc @?_ V ' V K3 c  ' 2c    c &  ' fc tii E

(30) e 6h|ih4Lhi V @ 7 ' U6 c @?_ i?Ui | uL**Lt |@| V  k . K. E%?e |. . &3 [. K %S|o |3 . '. t @ |i ?Lti ThLUitt @hL?_ |t 4i@? Ai tiUL?_ i ThittL? uLh |i UL?|hL* h*i t tii? @t uL**Lt 6hL4 S dE%?e  |  &3 K E%S|o  E|  o | ' S&3 |3?e ?e ' KE%|  | n  ' K E%|  %S|o |3   @?_ |i hi*@|L? 7  n UR K ' EK  UR  n UR ' EK  UR qq i €?_ |@| 7 K KE%?e  |  EKW  K EUR  Kq> | 7  E%?e  |  > n K E%?e  |  KW  ' K EK  UR qEq | | 

(31).

(32) L**iU|?} |i |ih4t i €?_ |i i ThittL? E

(33)  L|i |@| %?e t ?L| ?iUitt@h*) @ V+ ThLUittc @t | t |i t|@U!i_ | ThLUitt |@| @t |t ThLTih|) Ai hL*i Lu |i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| t }i? ? hLTLt|L? e Wu S %| t @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| @?_ S %| t UL?|hL**@M*i M) |i ?t|h4i?| @ %| c |i? |i €?@* |@h}i| t UL?|hL**@M*i M) @ %|  hLLu wi| KW Mi |i _ithi_ |@h}i| uLh K %|  iU@ti K %| n S %| t t|@|L?@h) | tL4i 4i@? 6c t@)c |i? | uL**Lt uhL4 AiLhi4 D |@| K %?e n S %?e t @*tL t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? 6 AihiuLhi S %| t | | UL?|hL**@M*i @?_ i ULLti |L UL?|hL* | tL |@| t MiUL4it t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? 6  KW  W| uL**Lt |@| K %?e ' 3 dEK %?e n S %?e   S %?e o | | | | t t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ 3 d6  E6  KW o ' KW . e.  _@*) 4L_i* uLh N5 _@|@. Ai |iLhi|U@* hit*|t ? 5iU|L? 2 @?_

(34) _i4L?t|h@|i_ |@| @ TL*U) UL? |hL* ThLM*i4 U@? Mi @TThL@Ui_ ? |L t|iTtG W? |i €ht| t|iT i ?ii_ |L it|@M*t UL?|hL**@M*|) Lu @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| M) |i @@*@M*i ? t|h4i?|t @?_ ? |i tiUL?_ t|iT UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| @?_ |i €?@* |@h}i| `i? |iti UL?_|L?t @hi t@|t€i_ i U@? _ihi @? @_i^@|i ?@|L? UL?|hL* h*i @t @ u?U|L? Lu E |i _tUhiT @?U) Mi|ii? |i @U|@* @?_ _ithi_ |@h}i|c E |i _ti^*Mh4 ihhLht 4 Doo hpslulfdo uhvxowv erwk lq wkh gdlo| dqg wkh prqwko| prgho kdyh ehhq fdofxodwhg. xvlqj wkh vriwzduh surjudp FDWV lq UDWV +Kdqvhq dqg Mxvholxv/ 4<<7,1 Vrph ri wkh judskv kdyh ehhq surgxfhg lq JlyhZlq +Grruqln dqg Khqgu|/ 4<<;,1. e.

(35) uhL4 |i iUL?L4)_i t|i@_)t|@|i hi*@|L?tc @?_ E |i €?@* 4T@U| Lu |i U@?}i ? |i ?t|h4i?| L? ?@|L? Ai €ht| T@h| Lu |i i4ThU@* @?@*)tt hiTLh|i_ Mi*L _i@*t | |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? |i 4L?i|@h) ?t|h4i?| @?_ |i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|tc ihi@t |i @?@*)tt Lu |i E?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|t @?_ |i €?@* |@h}i|t @?_ L |i) @hi hi*@|i_ |L |i t|@|i Lu |i iUL?L4) t Thiti?|i_ ? 5iU|L? D Ai ThTLti Lu |i _@*) @?@*)tt t €ht| |L UiU! i|ih |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @t U*Lti*) uL**Li_ |i ui_ih@* |@h}i| h@|i U t ti| M) |i 6i_ @ti_ L? hLTLt|L? e i |i? ?it|}@|i i|ih |i 6i_ @t Mii? @M*i |L UL?|hL* |i tLh||ih4 4@h!i| h@|itc ihi |i |hii @?_ t 4L?|t |hi@th) M** h@|itc t?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i Ai _@*) @?@*)tt t M@ti_ L? |i _@|@ iU|Lh %| ' dA o}| c 8 s| c -

(36) | c -S| oc ihi A o}| t |i |@h}i| h@|i ti| M) |i 6i_ih@* +itihi @?!c 8 s| t |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|ic -

(37) | t |i |hii 4L?|t @?_ -S| |i t 4L?|t |M** h@|ic @?_ | ' bbSff2c    c bbbf

(38) 2Sc @ |L|@* Lu H2e _@*) LMtih@|L?t ** _@|@ tihit @hi uhL4 |i _@|@M@ti ,UL`? Ai }h@Tt Lu |i @h@M*it @hi }i? ? TTi?_ c 6}hit Hc bc @?_ f *|L} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i t ?L| _hiU|*) _i|ih4?i_ M) |i 6i_ |i ih) U*Lti ULhhitTL?_i?Ui Lu |i |L }h@Tt ? T@?i* E@ U*i@h*) _i4L?t|h@|it |@| uLh Th@U|U@* ThTLtit | U@? Mi @tt4i_ ti| M) |i 6i_ Ai hi4@??} T@?i*t EM @?_ EU tL i@U Lu |i |M** h@|it hi*@|i |L |i |@h}i| h@|i 5?Ui |i |@h}i| h@|i @t }i?ih@**) Mii? L? @ }ih *ii* |@? |i |hi@th) M** h@|itc |i }h@Tt @i Mii? 4i@? @_t|i_ |L u@U*|@|i @ UL4T@htL? 6}hi H tLt |@| |i |@h}i| h@|i _Lit ?L| t@|tu) |i t|LU@t|U @tt4T|L?t ?_ih*)?} |i V+ 4L_i* W| tc |ihiuLhic |hi@|i_ @t @? i L}i?Lt @h@M*i @?_ 4L_i* E t 4L_€i_ @UULh_?}*)G. . {+| ' kEq %|3 >n. &3 [. K {%|3 nf {5| nx(| n0| c | ' c    c Ac Ee. '. ihi %| ' d+| c 5| oc 5| ' A o}| c +| ' d8 s| c -

(39) | c -S| oc @?_ (| t @ iU|Lh Lu _44) @h@M*it D.

(40) A@M*i 2G ttTiU€U@|L? |it|tc U@h@U|iht|U hLL|tc @?_ i@! i L}i?i|) uLh |i _@*) _@|@ N?@h@|i |it|tG {-

(41) | {-S| {8 s| +OE2 2f. D. bS aE2 See .S

(42) D2

(43) t!i?itt f ff

(44) f2H i Uitt !h|Ltt S

(45)

(46) fb

(47) ff j 0  ff ff

(48) H ff

(49) . f2H 2 + f2e fD fSD Ai |h@Ui |it| Dfe

(50) b e E

(51) D. Ai

(52) *@h}it| hLL|t Lu |i ThLUitt o ' 2 Ait| Lu i@! i L}i?i|) uLh o ' 2 G 2fbD E2 ' Sf. e. f .. E2f. Eb. fb fH H.. eSf. L_i* tTiU€U@|L?. *|L}i|ih t |ii? _44it ihi ?ii_i_ |L @UUL?| uLh i |h@Lh_?@h) tLU!t ?i?U?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i |M** h@|it Ai) @hi @t uL**LtG (| ' d(Sc (e2c (e

(53) c (U2Hc (ebc (UDbc (.2c (H.c (2DDc (

(54) Sc (

(55) Hfc (UeS

(56) c (Db.c (.fSc (U.

(57) c (.SDoc ihi (% t @?    fc fc c fc fc    4T*ti _44) _itUhM?} @ Tih4@?i?| tLU! @| LMtih@|L? | ' % @?_ (U% t @?    fc fc c c fc fc    _44) _itUhM?} @ |h@?t|Lh) tLU! @| LMtih@|L? | ' %  V+E2 ThL_Ui_ |i uL**L?} 4ttTiU€U@|L? |it|tG Ai 4* |@h@|i w |it| uLh €ht| Lh_ih hit_@* @|LULhhi*@|L?c _t|hM|i_ @t 2 Ebc }@i @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu Sf @?_ |i ?** Lu ?L @|LULhhi*@|L? @t @UUiT|i_ | @ R@*i Lu f.e Ai 4*|@h@|i ?Lh4@*|) |it| 2 ES @t t|hL?}*) hiiU|i_ M@ti_ L? @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu eeeD Ai ?@h@|i |it| @*it @hic |ihiuLhic @__|L?@**) hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i 2c |L}i|ih | |i |h@Ui |it|tc |i hLL|t Lu |i V+ ThLUitt @?_ i@! i L}i?i|) |it| Lu |i @h@M*it S.

(58) W| @TTi@ht |@| |i hit_@*t i M| t}?€U@?| +O igiU|t @?_ |@| |i t|hL?} hiiU|L? Lu ?Lh4@*|) t _i |L i Uitt !h|Ltt M| ?L| |L t!i?itt 5?Ui |i it|4@|L? hit*|t @hi }i?ih@**) 4L_ih@|i*) hLMt| |L +O igiU|t EO@?ti? @?_ +@Mi!c bbH @?_ i Uitt !h|Ltt EBL?3@*Lc bbe EM| ?L| t!i?itt i ** _thi}@h_ |i ?L??Lh4@*|) ThLM*i4 ihi Ai |h@Ui |it| t UL?tt|i?| | o ' 2 At ULUi *i@it @ u@h*) *@h}i hLL| Efb ? |i 4L_i*c ?_U@|?} |@| |i @_t|4i?| |L |i tiUL?_ UL?|i}h@|L? iU|Lh t *!i*) |L Mi ^|i t*L At t UL?€h4i_ M) |i k2 ULiUi?|t ? A@M*i

(59) @?_ |i }h@T Lu q2 %| ? 6}hi

(60)  Ai |it|t Lu i@! i L}i?i|) uLh |i *L?}h? T@h@4i|iht tL |@| ?L?i Lu |i @h@M*it U@? Mi UL?t_ihi_ i@!*) i L}i?Lt @?_ |@| |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i t @_t|?} 4U 4Lhi t|hL?}*) |@? |i |hi@th) M** h@|it. e2. Ai _@*) hit*|t. W? A@M*i

(61) i hiTLh| @? _i?|€i_ t|hU|hi Lu |i |L *L?}h? hi*@|L?tc 5} q  %| c @?_ |ih ULhhitTL?_?} tLh|h? @_t|4i?| T@h@4i|ihtc k ?€U@?| ULiUi?|t @hi ? ML*_ u@Ui Ai |it| Lu |i |L Lih_i?|u)?} hit|hU|L?t EaL@?ti? @?_ ati*tc bbec _t|hM|i_ @t 2 E2c ThL_Ui_ @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu 22 @?_ |i hit|hU|L?t U@? Mi @UUiT|i_ | @ R@*i Lu f

(62) D __|L?@* hit|hU|L?t ? |i uLh4 Lu @ ?| ULiUi?| L? 8 s| ? q  }@i @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu .eH E2 E

(63) c R@*i ffS @?_ t4*@h*) L? -S| ? q  @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu HSS E2 E

(64) c R@*i ff

(65)  W4TLt?} ?| ULi Ui?|t L? ML| hi*@|L?tc i |i |it| i|ih |i |L tThi@_tc 8 s| A o}| @?_ -

(66) |  -S| c tT@? |i UL?|i}h@|L? tT@Uic @t hiiU|i_ M@ti_ L? @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu eDH E2 Eec R@*i ff 54*@h hit*|t ihi @*tL LM|@?i_ ? |i 4L?|*) 4L_i*c i?Ui |i ULiUi?|t @hi *iu| ?hit|hU|i_ Ai €ht| UL?|i}h@|L? hi*@|L? UL?€h4t |i t@* 4ThittL? uhL4 |i }h@Tt ? TTi?_ c 6}hi fc T@?i* E@c |@| |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @t Mii? U*Lti*) |h@U!?} |i |@h}i| h@|i ti| M) |i 6i_ Ai k

(67)  ULiUi?| tLt |@| ii? L? @ _@*) M@tt |i @_t|4i?| |L |i |@h}i| h@|i t ih) u@t| |c 4Lhi ?|ihit|?}*)c |i |M** h@|it @h_*) hi@U| @| @** |L _i@|L?t uhL4 |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i hi*@|L?G k  @?_ k 2 @hi ..

(68) A@M*i

(69) G ? Lih_i?|€i_ hiThiti?|@|L? Lu |i UL?|i}h@|?} tT@Ui uLh |i _@*) _@|@ E5}?€U@?| @*it ? ML*_u@Ui L?|i}h@|L? iU|Lht q _t|4i?| ULiUi?|t k w0ydoxhv lq eudfnhwv. w0ydoxhv lq eudfnhwv. V@h -

(70) |. q u ff. q 2u ,^ f {-

(71) |. -S|. ff. fH. {-S|. ff. ffe. 8 s|. fb2. ff {8 s|. fbf. ff. A o}| L?t|@?|. {-

(72) |. E3

(73) H

(74) . E322. f. ff. feS. fDD. E3

(75) H. k u k 2u fff ffD Ef2. E2f. E2eH. E2H. E2e. Ef. E32S. 5Lh|h? @_t|4i?| ULiUi?|t K f {-

(76) |3 {-S|3 {8 s|3 {A o}|3 {A o}| ffD ffe ff ff2 f

(77) E. Efb. E2f. {-S|. ff. ff. ff. f

(78) fff. {8 s|. fSf. f.S. ff. f

(79) f.b. Ef

(80) . E2S. Ef2. E

(81) 2. E2b. EfD. Ef2. E. Ef

(82) . E2f. Eff. E2. U*Lti |L 3ihLc |L} MLh_ih*?i t}?€U@?| uLh |i t 4L?|t |hi@th) M** h@|it2  Ai tiUL?_ UL?|i}h@|L? hi*@|L? _itUhMit @ <4L_€i_< )i*_ }@T Mi|ii? |i

(83) @?_ |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|it L| @hi @_t|?} |L |t hi*@|L? E|L} ?L| ih) t|hL?}*) tLc ihi@t |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i t ?L| `i ?|ihThi| |i hit*|t @t tL4ic M| ?L| ih) t|hL?}c i_i?Ui Lu 4@h!i| @_t|4i?| Mi|ii? |i |hi@th) M** h@|it E@t |i i TiU|@|L?t< )TL|itt L*_ Thi_U|

(84) 5 Wkh. uhvlgxdo fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh ihghudo ixqgv udwh dqg wkh wzr pdunhw udwhv duh 31336 dqg 3134:/ uhvshfwlyho|/ zklfk vwuhqjkwhqv wklv uhvxow1 6 Wkh uhvxowv iurp wkh prqwko| prgho edvhg rq dq h{whqghg lqirupdwlrq vhw/ vxj0 jhvw wkdw wkh suhvhqw lqirupdwlrq vhw pd| qrw eh vxflhqw wr surylgh d frpsohwh. H.

(85) 2. ecm1. 1 0 -1 -2 0. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. 700. 800. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. 700. 800. ecm2. .2. 0. -.2. 0. 100. 6}hi

(86) G Ai }h@Tt Lu |i |L _i?|€i_ UL?|i}h@|L? hi*@|L?t Lu A@M*i

(87) uLh |i _@*) _@|@ *|L} |i it|4@|it Lu k _i4L?t|h@|i_ 4L_it| hi@U|L? @4L?} |i 4@h!i| h@|it |L |i *L?}h? hi*@|L?t q  %| c |i it|4@|it Lu K @?_ f hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i

(88) 4@) t|** UL?|@? 4TLh|@?| tLh|h? igiU|t Ai

(89) 4L?|t |M** h@|i tii4t |L @i Mii? @giU|i_ M) |i Uhhi?| U@?}i ? |i |@h}i| h@|i @?_ |i *@}}i_ U@?}i ? |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i M| |i igiU|t @hi 4L_it| @?_ L?*) MLh_ih*?i t}?€U@?| Ai S 4L?|t |M** h@|i t 4Lhi t}?€U@?|*) @giU|i_ M) |i *@}}i_ ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i 6h|ih4Lhic |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @t hi@U|i_ ^|i t|hL?}*) |L |i *@}}i_ U@?}i ? |i )i*_ }@T At t UL?€h4i_ ? |i 4L?|*) 4L_i* `i|ih |i |M** h@|it U@? Mi UL?|hL**i_ Lh ?L| t?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @t @? ?t|h4i?| _iTi?_t L? |i |@h}i|%?t|h4i?| i*i4i?|t Lu |i *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h  Ai it|4@|i_  4@|h t hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i e |L}i|ih | kz c qz ' qz Ekz Kqz 3 c @?_ l `| o ' 2 UL?|i}h@|L? ghvfulswlrq ri wkh whup vwuxfwxuh1. b.

(90) A@M*i eG Ai 4@|h @?_ |i UL44L? |hi?_t kz @?_ |i @ttLU@|i_ i}|t qhz ' qz Ekz Kqz 3 uLh |i _@*) _@|@ h Ai  4@|h kz l qhz 0 -

(91) 0 -S 0 8 s -

(92) | feD fD2 ff fH. fD2 ff

(93) H2 E2D. -S| 8 s|. fD

(94) E2D. E

(95) D. fSf ff E

(96) D. ff

(97) ffe E2D. E

(98) . E

(99) D. E

(100) . fff E

(101) . ff. fSf. fS. ff

(102) .2. ff2. ffe. fff

(103). ff.. f2H2.  hi*@|L?tc |ihi t t| L?i UL44L? t|LU@t|U |hi?_c kz P|' 0  c ihi 0  ' d 0-

(104) c 0 -S c 0 8 s o. Ai it|4@|i Lu kz tLt |@| |i t|LU@t|U |hi?_ t _i|ih4?i_ 4@?*) M) U4*@|i_ tLU!t |L |i |L |hi@th) M** h@|it Ai it|4@|i Lu qhz tLt |@| |i |hi@th) M** h@|it @hi ?i?Ui_ M) |t |hi?_ ? |i t@4i ThLTLh|L? @t |i UL?|i}h@|L? ULiUi?|t ? A@M*i

(105)  Ai ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i t ?L| @giU|i_ M) |i t|LU@t|U |hi?_ ? |i |hi@th) M** h@|itc M| t|hL?}*) @giU|i_ M) |i i@!*) i L}i?Lt |@h}i| h@|i @t tL? ? A@M*i

(106)  Ai it|4@|it Lu |i  4@|h UL?€h4 |i @MLi ?|ihThi|@|L?G ?i|ih -

(107) | c ?Lh -S| L*_ Mi UL?|hL**@M*i @UULh_?} |L UL?_|L? EHc t?Ui |i) ML| @TTi@h |L Mi *L}h? ?i|h@* | hitTiU| |L 8 s|  At |i) U@??L| tihi @t U@?__@|it uLh ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|tc tii #i€?|L? c ii? |L} |i) 4@) UL?|i}h@|i | ?@|L? `i @i tLi_ @MLi |@| |i UL?_|L? uLh UL?|hL**@M*|) Lu |i |hii 4L?|t |M** h@|i @t ?L| t@|t€i_ M@ti_ L? |i _@*) @?@*)tt @?_ |i i4ThU@* @?@*)tt UL*_ t|LT |ihi iU@ti Lu |i t|hL?} ThLh Mi*iu ? |i 6i_<t @M*|) |L UL?|hL* ?@|L? i @ic ?iih|i*ittc UL?|?i_ |i @?@*)tt M@ti_ L? 4L?|*) _@|@ @?_ }i @ u@h*) _i|@*i_ ?|ihThi|@ |L? Lu |i i4ThU@* hit*|t 2f.

(108) D. Ai 4L?|*) N5 4L_i*. W? |i tiUL?_ *ii* Lu |i @?@*)tt |i _L4it|U 4L?i|@h) |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 _itUhMit L U@?}it ? |i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i|tc |hi?_ @_t|i_ 4L?i) E6  6W  @?_ |i tLh||ih4 ?|ihit| h@|i E-r c _)?@4 U@**) @giU| |i _L4it|U iUL?L4) |hL} |i tMti^i?| @_t|4i?| Lu *L?}|ih4 ?|ihit| h@|it E-, c |i L|T| }@T E++ W c @?_ €?@**) ?@|L? h@|i E{R Ai uL**L?} t4T*i _@}h@4 tihit @t @? **t|h@|L?G e?|o@, K@?& En En E3 E3 E3 $ 6  6W -r $ -, $ +  +W $ {R ?|ihi?|L?t G ED ** uLh @h@M*it uhL4 |i _@*) @?@*)tt @hi @@*@M*i L? @ 4L?|*) M@tt t|@h|?} uhL4 }t| bHD `i |ihiuLhi !iiT |i ThiLt @h@M*it ? |i 4L_i* @?_ i |i?_ | | uLh ?i @h@M*itc 6  Rc hi@* 4L?i) t|LU! ? *L}t E

(109) c + hi@* B#e ? *L}tc f |i f )i@ht ML?_ h@|ic @?_ |i €?@* |@h}i| @h@M*ic {R 4L?|*) W ?@|L? h@|i E{ *?  U `i @TT*) |i V+ 4L_i* E |L |i uL**L?} i}| @h@M*it %| ' d6  Rc +c {Rc -

(110) c -Sc fc 8 sc A o}o| c ihi -

(111) c -Sc 8 sc @?_ A o} @hi 4L?|*) @ih@}it Lu _@*) LMtih@|L?t Ai ?L4?@* ?|ihit| h@|it @i Mii? |h@?tuLh4i_ |L 4L?|*) h@|it @?_ __i_ M) ff |L 4@!i |i4 UL4T@h@M*i | 4L?|*) ?@|L? Ai t@4T*i t uhL4 bHDGH |L bbbG2c UL?tt|?} Lu S

(112) 4L?|*) LMtih@|L?t Bh@Tt Lu |i 4L?|*) _@|@ @hi }i? ? TTi?_ c 6}hit b @?_ f. D. L_i* tTiU€U@|L?. Ai |@h}i| h@|i ? TTi?_ c 6}hi f *LL!t 4Lhi *!i @ t|LU@t|U ThLUitt @u|ih @}}hi}@|L? iU@ti @ 4L_i* uLh |i |@h}i| h@|i 4}| UL?|@? ?uLh4@|L? L? L |i 6i_ @t ti| |t |@h}i| @t @ hitTL?ti |L 7 Wkh. prqwko| JGS ydoxhv kdyh ehhq lqwhusrodwhg iurp txduwhuo| gdwd xvlqj wkh surfhgxuh lqwhusrodwh1vfu lq UDWV/ Hvwlpd/ dvvxplqj d udqgrp zdon . guliw prgho1. 2.

(113) U@?}?} 4@h!i| UL?_|L?tc i L? @? 4T*U| TL*U) h*ic | @t Mii? ?U*_i_ @t @ t)t|i4 @h@M*i ? |i V+ 4L_i* D Ahii _44it ihi ?ii_i_ |L @UUL?| uLh |i uL**L?} ?|ihi? |L?tG. (| ' d(HSf

(114) c (HS2c (H.oc. ihi (%%c ++ _itUhMit @ Tih4@?i?| 4T*ti _44) |L |i t)t|i4 @| |4i b )) Ai hit*|t ? A@M*i D @hi M@ti_ L? @ V+E2 4L_i* Ai 4* |@h@|i w |it| uLh €ht| Lh_ih hit_@* @|LULhhi*@|L?c _t|hM|i_ @t 2 ESec }@i @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu Hf @?_ @t @UUiT|i_ | @ R@*i Lu ff. Ai 4*|@h@|i ?Lh4@*|) |it| 2 ES @t hiiU|i_ M@ti_ L? @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu H.. A@M*i D hiTLh| @__|L?@**) ?@h@|i 4ttTiU€U@|L? |it|t uLh hit_@* +O igiU|t @?_ ?Lh4@*|)c @t i** @t |h@Ui |it|tc |i hLL|t Lu |i V+ ThLUitt @?_ i@! i L}i?i|) |it|t Ai |h@Ui |it| t} }it|t uLh UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L?t @?_c i?Uic uLh UL44L? |hi?_t `| |i ULUi Lu o ' e |i 4L_*t Lu |i *@h}it| t|@|L?@h) hLL| t fb ? |i 4L_i* W| @TTi@ht |@| |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|i @?_ |i f )i@ht ML?_ h@|i ?__@**) U@? Mi @tt4i_ i@!*) i L}i?Lt uLh |i *L?}h? T@h@4i |iht qc ihi@t |i

(115) 4L?|t |M** h@|i t @ MLh_ih*?i U@ti Ai |it| Lu L?| i L}i?i|) Lu |i €ht| |L }@i @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu bf : 2fbD EH @?_ @ R@*i Lu f

(116) ec ihi@t |i |it| |@| @** |hii @hi L?|*) i L}i?Lt @t t|hL?}*) hiiU|i_ M@ti_ L? @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu D

(117) f : 2fbD E2 @?_ @ R@*i Lu fff. D2. Ai 4L?|*) hit*|t. UULh_?} |L #i€?|L?  @ ?iUitt@h) UL?_|L? uLh UL?|hL**@M*|) Lu @ €?@* |@h}i| |hL} |i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| t UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| @?_ |i €?@* |@h}i| Lhi }i?ih@**)c UL?|i}h@|L? 8 Dv. d vhqvlwlylw| fkhfn wkh zkroh dqdo|vlv zdv grqh zlwk wkh wdujhw udwh dv dq h{rjhqrxv yduldeoh1 Vlqfh wkh pdlq frqfoxvlrqv uhpdlqhg xqdowhuhg/ zh uhsruw rqo| wkh uhvxowv ri wkh ixoo v|vwhp dqdo|vlv1. 22.

(118) A@M*i DG ttTiU€U@|L? |it|tc U@h@U|iht|U hLL|tc @?_ i@! i L}i?i|) uLh |i 4L?|*) _@|@ Xqly1 whvwv= DUFK+5, M10E1+5,. j 0  ff. U2 Wudfh whvw=. {6|. {+|. {2 R|. {-

(119) |. {-S|. 419 319 3159 31:8. 315 71; 3148 3199. 314 91< 3146 31:3. 4816 619 3134 317<. 41; 313 3134 3175.

(120)

(121) D. EH2. 2

(122) e. EeS. DS. bH. ED. Wkh urrwv= 413 413 413 Whvw ri zhdn h{rjhqhlw| iru o ' e G 2 Ee ' bD 5818 5:19 7315. D2. {f|. {8 s|. {A o}|. 314 31; 3135 316:. 514 413 3134 319:. 461: 6313 3134 3185. 2e. .

(123). EH.. ES

(124) . Ee2. E2D. E2. 413. 31<4. 31;3. 31;3. 3176. ;19. 51:. 713. 631<. 5614. ThLTih|it Mi|ii? ?t|h4i?|tc ?|ih4i_@|i @?_ €?@* |@h}i|t UL?|@? 4TLh|@?| ?uLh4@|L? L? |i 4L?i|@h) |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 **t |h@|i_ ? A@M*i  AihiuLhic i €ht| |it| UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? ?@|L? h@|i @?_ i@U Lu |i ?|ihit| h@|it @?_ |i? Mi|ii? |i ?|ihit| h@|it hi*@|i |L i@U L|ih ** )TL|itit K  KD ? A@M*i S @hi Lu |i uLh4 q ' iMc jc i |i) |it| hit|hU|L?t L? @ t?}*i iU|Lh @?_ *i@i |i L|ih iU|Lht ?hit|hU|i_ EaL@?ti? @?_ ati*tc bb2 , UiT| uLh KD c M |it|t i|ih |L @h@M*it @hi UL?|i}h@|i_ Ec @c ihi @ t uhii*) it|4@|i_ Wu |ihi i t|t UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? T@ht Lu @h@M*itc |t ThLUi_hi tL*_ €?_ | Ai )TL|itit K  KD @hi |it|t Lu UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? |i ?@|L? h@|i @?_ i@U Lu |i ?|ihit| h@|it Aihi t i@! i_i?Ui |@| ?@|L? h@|i t UL?|i}h@|i_ Ec fe | |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i ELh |i |@h}i| h@|i 4L?} |i hi4@??} )TL|itit KS KD c UL?|i}h@|L? t L?*) uL?_ ? KD U _itUhMit |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i |@h}i| h@|i 5|@|L?@h|) t @UUiT|i_ | @ R@*i Lu fbH Ai it|4@|i_ ULiUi?| Mi|ii? |i

(125) @?_ S 4L?|t |M** h@|it ? KS t U*Lti |L ?|)c M| |i tThi@_ t ?iih|i*itt uL?_ |L Mi ?L?t|@|L?@h) 5ii @*tL |i }h@T ? T@?i* EU Lu 6}hi e 2

(126).

(127) 1.5. (a). Ffs rate-3M tbill rate. 1.5. (b). Ffs rate-6M tbill rate. 1. 1. .5. .5. 0 0 -.5 1990 (c). 1995. 1990. 6M tbill rate-3M tbill rate. .5. (d). 1995. 10yBond rate-6M tbill rate. 3. .25. 2. 0. 1. -.25 1990. 1995. 1990. 1995. 6}hi eG Ai }h@Tt Lu |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? E@ |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i

(128) 4L?|t |M** h@|ic EM |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|ic EU |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|i @?_ |i

(129) 4L?|t |M** h@|ic @?_ E_ |i f )i@ht ML?_ h@|i @?_ |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|i. 2e.

(130) A@M*i SG Ait|?} T@hti UL?|i}h@|L? ThLTih|it p0s | {R U

(131) US E43 Ii Wuj M 3 3 4 03176 3 3 3 3 M2 3 3 4 3 03178 3 3 3 M

(132) 3 3 4 3 3 03189 3 3 Me 3 3 4 3 3 3 0316: 3 MD 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 0316: MS 3 3 3 4 04137 3 3 3 M. 3 3 3 4 3 04189 3 3 MH 3 3 3 4 3 3 031;4 3 Mb 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 031;4 Mf 3 3 3 3 4 03199 3 3 M 3 3 3 3 4 3 031:; 3 M2 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 031:< M

(133) 3 3 3 3 3 4 03186 Me 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 03186 MD 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 04. L?|*) _@|@ 2 Ev s1ydo1 4417+7,. 3135. 4418+7,. 3135. 4;1;+7,. 3133. ;1<+7,. 3139. ;18+7,. 313:. 4<17+7,. 3133. 5918+7,. 3133. 5315+7,. 3133. 5314+7,. 3133. 5915+7,. 3133. 4818+7,. 3133. 481;+7,. 3133. 561<+7,. 3133. 561;+7,. 3133. 31;4+8,. 31<;. *|L} t|@|L?@h|) Lu |i ?|ihit| h@|i tThi@_ t Lu T@h|U*@h ?|ihit|c | t ?L| ?iUitt@h) |L |it| |t )TL|itt t?Ui |i *itt hit|hU|i )TL|itt Lu UL?|i}h@|L? Ec @ @t @*hi@_) hiiU|i_ ? K  Ke  W? 6}hi e |i }h@Tt Lu |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ i@U Lu |i |M** h@|it @hi }i? ? T@?i* E@ @?_ EMc Mi|ii? |i

(134) @?_ S 4L?|t |M** h@|it ? T@?i* EU @?_ ? T@?i* E_ Mi|ii? |i f )i@ht ML?_ h@|i @?_ |i S 4L?| |M** h@|i *|L} |i ?|ihit| h@|it tii4 |L 4Li |L}i|ih ih) U*Lti*)c @t **t|h@|i_ M) |i }h@Tt ? 6}hi b ? TTi?_ c |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? |i4c ?iih|i*ittc _Lit ?L| tii4 |L Mi t}?€U@?|*) 4i@? hiih|?} Ai TL*U) h*i ? AiLhi4 S _i€?it |i ?iUitt@h) ?|ihi?|L? |L Mi @ u?U|L? Lu |i _tUhiT@?U) Mi|ii? |i @U|@* @?_ |i _ithi_ |@h}i| @*i @?_ Lu |i i^*Mh4 ihhLht ? |i iUL?L4)c @t 4i@thi_ M) |i UL?|i}h@|L? hi*@|L?t q  %|  A@M*i . hiTLh| @? _i?|€i_ t|hU 2D.

(135) .001. ecm1. 005 0 005 025. 1990. 1995. 1990. 1995. 1990. 1995. 1990. 1995. ecm2. 0 025. .005. ecm3. 0 .005. .001. ecm4. 0 .001. 6}hi DG Ai }h@Tt Lu |i uLh _i?|€i_ UL?|i}h@|L? hi*@|L?t ? A@M*i . uLh |i 4L?|*) _@|@ |hi Lu |i UL?|i}h@|?} iU|Lht q @?_ |ih ULhhitTL?_?} tLh|h? @_t|4i?| T@h@4i|iht k  5}?€U@?| ULiUi?|t @hi ? ML*_ u@Ui Ai H Lih_i?|u)?} hit|hU|L?t }@i @ |it| t|@|t|U Lu D.Dc U UL4 T@hi_ |L 2fbD EH ' DD U@? Mi @UUiT|i_ | @ R@*i Lu fSH Bh@Tt Lu |i uLh UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L?t @hi }i? ? 6}hi D Ai t|@M* |) Lu |i 4L_i* T@h@4i|iht @i Mii? UiU!i_ M) |i hiUhti |it| ThLUi_hit _tUtti_ ? EO@?ti? @?_ aL@?ti?c bbb Ai hiUhti*) U@*U*@|i_ bDI UL?€_i?Ui ti|t @hL?_ q | UL?|@?i_ qA @?_ qA uLh @** | ' A ' bbGSc    c A ' bbbG2 Ai hiUhti*) U@*U*@|i_ ULiUi?|t Lu q @?_ k tLi_ hi4@h!@M*i UL?t|@?U) Ai €ht| UL?|i}h@|L? hi*@|L? ULhhitTL?_t |L KD ? A@M*i S Ai @_t|4i?| ULiUi?|tc k c tL |@| ML| |i |@h}i| h@|i @?_ |i 6i_ h@|i @hi @_t|?} |L |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i |@h}i| h@|ic M| |i *@||ih 4Lhi t|hL?}*) tL L|i @*tL |@| ?@|L? 2S.

(136) A@M*i .G  u**) _i?|€i_ hiThiti?|@|L? Lu |i UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L?t uLh |i 4L?|*) 4L_i* L?|i}h@|L? iU|Lht q w0ydoxhv lq eudfnhwv. 6|. q u ff. q 2u ff. +|. ff. ff. {R|. ff. ff. f. ff. -

(137) |. ff. f. ff. ee. -S|. ff. e. ff. 2Se. f|. ff. fD. fe

(138). ff. V@h. 8 s| A o}| Ahi?_. q

(139) u fffe E.. E2f. ffe2 ff2 E3ee. E3HbS E3b.. q eu fff2. E3

(140) . f ff ff f ff ff ff ff ffff _t|4i?| ULiUi?|t k. E3eb. EDf. E3HH. ff f ffff. w0ydoxhv lq eudfnhwv. ,^ {6|. k  k 2 fHf .D Efe. EeD. k

(141) f2

(142). k e e2.. {+|. fbS. 

(143) Sf. f.S. e.. 

(144) . 2.S. fbS. fee. {-

(145) |. f.. ff. ff2. ffS. {-S|. f2f. f22. ff2.  ffD. {f|. ff. fH. ffe Eb. E3fD. {8 s|. feH. fe.. ff2. f2f. {A o}|. f2b. fb. ff. f2f. {2 R|. EfH. E

(146) . E.. E3H E3ff. EDe. E2S. E.. ED. Ef. E. E3f.. E2b. Efb. 2.. Efb. EDf. E3.e. EH Ee. ED Ef. Ee E2D. E3fb E3. E3fH. ffe. E3ee E3

(147) S.

(148) t ?L| t}?€U@?|*) @_t|?} |L |t hi*@|L?c ?Lh t @?) Lu |i 4@h!i| _i|ih4?i_ ?|ihit| h@|it Ai tiUL?_ hi*@|L? t @ L4L}i?iLt hi*@|L? Mi|ii? |i |hii 4@h!i| h@|itc |i

(149) @?_ S 4L?|t |M** h@|it @?_ |i f )i@ht ML?_ h@|i -

(150)  -S ' feE-S  f n r|@|SJ6Rc ?_U@|?} |@| |i ?L?t|@|L?@h|) Lu |i |M** tThi@_ t hi*@|i_ |L |i ?L?t|@|L?@h|) Lu |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? |i ML?_ h@|i @?_ |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|i Ai @_t|4i?| ULiUi?|tc k2 c tL |@| |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i |i?_ |L }L T @?_ 4L?i) t|LU! UL?|h@U| i? -

(151) t @MLi |i t|i@_) t|@|i @*i At L*_ Mi UL?tt|i?| | |i 6i_ U@t?} @ UL?|h@U|L? ? 4L?i) t|LU! ? Lh_ih |L ?Uhi@ti |i 8 s h@|i @t @ hitTL?ti |L @ 4@h!i| ?Uhi@ti ? |i tLh| |M** h@|i Ai |h_ hi*@|L? tii4t |L UL?|@? i*i4i?|t Lu @? U7 Uhi @?_ @ **Tt Uhi hi*@|L? E+ |oe?_ ' ffE6R|oe?_fEf{Rn

(152) e{Rnr|@|SJ6R Ahi?_@_t|i_ hi@* B# t TLt|i*) hi*@|i_ |L hi@* |hi?_@_t|i_ 4

(153) c ?i}@|i*) |L hi@* *L?}|ih4 ?|ihit| h@|i E|i U7 Uhi igiU| @?_ TLt |i*) |L |i ?@|L? h@|i E|i **Tt Uhi igiU| L| hi@* B# @?_ ?@|L? h@|i @hi i^*Mh4 ihhLh ULhhiU|?} |L |t hi*@|L? Ai uLh| hi*@|L? 4}| Mi ?|ihThi|i_ @t @? 4T*U| h*i uLh |i |@h}i| h@|i |o} ' 2-S n eE-S  -

(154)  n ff2E+  |oe?_  fff2E6  R  |oe?_ n  ?_U@|?} |@| |i |@h}i| h@|i @t uL**Li_ |i S 4L?|t |M** h@|i M| L? @ 2fI }ih *ii*c @t Mii? TLt|i*) hi*@|i_ |L L|T| }@Tc @?_ TLt|i*) |L |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? |i S @?_

(155) 4L?|t |M** h@|it Ai ?i}@|i ULiUi?| |L |hi?_@_t|i_ 4L?i) t|LU! t *!i*) |L _itUhMi |i 4L?i|@h) UL?|h@U|L? igiU| @ttLU@|i_ | @? ?Uhi@ti ? Ui?|h@* M@?! ?|ihit| h@|it Ai tLh|h? @_t|4i?| ULiUi?|tc ke c tL |@| ML| |i |@h}i| h@|i @?_ |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @hi t}?€U@?|*) 2H.

(156) A@M*i HG Ai *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h  uLh |i 4L?|*) _@|@ E|@*it ? Mh@U!i|t 06 0+ 0{R 0-

(157) 0-S 0f 08 s 0A o} 6|

(158) b 

(159)  D

(160) D eS. eb. 2f2 DH2 E

(161) 2. +| {R|. fH. E22. 22. E2H. E2f. .. 2

(162) H. EH. Ef. Eb. E. E

(163) . f. f2. 2. -

(164) |. ffe. fe. fe. f. -S|. ff

(165). f2. f

(166). fff. ff. 8 s|. ffe. A o}|. ffe. E2. Eff. E E. E32

(167) . 2Df .b. Eef. E

(168) . f2. Efe. Ef2. f|. ff. E3fD. E32H. fD. E2. He. bS. E

(169) . fb. E2e. fD. E2b. Ee. 2eS. f22 f. fbf. f.. 2

(170) 2. ffb ff. fHf. ffe. fD. ff

(171). f. f

(172) . ff2. fb. fb. 22. 2ff. ffe feS. fH. fb. fb. H. be. ffD fe.. fH. E2

(173) . E2. Ef2. E2.. E2H. E2f Eb. Ef. E2

(174)  E2e. Ef2. EfS EfS. E3fD EfS EfS. E. E

(175)  Ee Eff. Ef Ef. ED. Ef. E3fe E3f2 E

(176) S. Ef Ef. Ef2 Ef2 E. EfH Efb. Ee. E

(177) . Ef. ED ED. Qrwh= Wkh odujh frhflhqwv wr lqwhuhvw udwhv lq wkh uvw wzr urzv duh gxh wr wkh gdwd wudqvirupdwlrq ghvfulehg dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri Vhfwlrq 91. @_t|?} |L |t hi*@|L? W? |i tLh| h? ML| hi@* ?UL4i @?_ hi@* 4L?i) t|LU! hi@U| TLt|i*)  E?L| hiTLh|i_ ihi ihi Ai tLh|h? @_t|4i?| igiU|t ? K. @*|L}i|ih t4@** @?_ 4Lt|*) ?t}?€U@?| Ai ?@|L? h@|i @t t}?u U@?|*) @_t|?} |L |i *@}}i_ U@?}i Lu hi@* 4L?i) t|LU! EM| ?i}@ |i*)-c Lu S 4L?|t |M** h@|i E?i}@|i*)c @?_ Lu |i *L?}|ih4 ML?_ h@|i ETLt|i*) w@}}i_ U@?}it Lu L|T| }@T @_ TLt|i igiU|t L? itti?|@**) @** |i ?|ihit| h@|it w@}}i_ U@?}it Lu |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @?_ |i |@h}i| h@|i @_ ?L t}?€U@?| igiU|t L? @?) Lu |i @h@M*it `i|ih ?@|L? t UL?|hL**@M*i Lh ?L| t UhU@**) _iTi?_i?| L? Ai |i *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h c  A@M*i H hiTLh|t |i it|4@|i_  UL?_|L? |@| ?@|L? U@? Mi UL?|hL**i_ M) |i 6i_ Et?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i t |@| S

(178) . 9' f ELhc MiU@ti Lu |i t|hL?} UL?|i}h@|L? Mi |ii? 8 | @?_ A o}c S

(179) H 9' f ? |i  4@|h  L| ULiUi?|t @hi TLt|i E@}@?t| |i ThLh Mi*iu Lu @ ?i}@|i 4T@U| L? ?@|L? ? |i *L?} h?c M| L?*) |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i S

(180) . t t}?€U@?| ? A@M*i H 2b.

(181) Ai @MLi hit*|t t}}it| |@| tLU!t |L |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @i Th4@h*) @_ @ ULt|Tt igiU| L? ?@|L? Ai |L ?i}@|i i*i4i?|t ? |i ?@|L? hLc S

(182) e @?_ S

(183) D c ULhhitTL?_?} |L |i |M** h@|itc @hi ?L| t}?€U@?|*) _gihi?| uhL4 3ihL Ai 4Lt| t}?€U@?| *L?}h? 4T@U| L? ?@|L? t uhL4 tLU!t |L |i L|T| }@Tc TLttM*) t}?u)?} @ <_i4@?_ T**< igiU| L? ?@|L? Oi?Uic |i _i*) i*_ Mi*iu |@| |i 6i_ U@? Mh?} N5 W ?@|L? _L? M) ?Uhi@t?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i _Lit ?L| LM|@? i4ThU@* tTTLh|. D

(184). 54*@|?} |i ?i ThLUitt. t @? i @4T*i Lu |i igiU| Lu h*i E

(185)  L? |i @h@M*it ? |i iUL?L4)c i @i ti_ |i it|4@|i_ T@h@4i|iht @?_ hit_@*t uhL4 |i V+ 4L_i* Lu |t tiU|L? |L }i?ih@|i |i ThLUitt %?e M@ti_ L? E2G | S|o  {%S|o n x( |n n 0 |n  %?e Eq  %S|o  n K |n ' %| n k | > |. `|L| ?|ihi?|L?t |i ThLUitt %| L*_ Mi }i?ih@|i_ M)G  {%| n x( |n n 0 |n  %|n ' %| n k Eq  %|  >  n K ?e ) tM|h@U|?} %|n uhL4 %?e |n i €?_ @? i ThittL? uLh %|n ? |ih4t Lu %|n c %| c {%| c %S|o @?_ {%S|o }i? M)G | | S|o. %?e q  E%S|o |n ' %|n n EUR n k |  %|  n K {E%|  %| c. U |L}i|ih | E

(186)  ?e q  q 3 Eq  %?e  >  UR qE 3 dK %?e %S|o  @EK @  KW n K E K  | ' %| | |  ?e S|o nK  K E%|  %|3 o. U@? Mi ti_ |L _ihi |i ?i ThLUitt Ai ?|ihi?|L?c }i? M) |i ?e _gihi?Ui @ E%S|o c t }h@Ti_ ? 6}hi S |L}i|ih | |i 6i_ |  %| ih@* 6?_t h@|i Ai @__|L?@* ?|ihi?|L?t ?ii_i_ |L 4@!i ?@|L? t|@|L?@h) @hi ih) t4@** ?_ii_ Ai _ihi_ ?|ihi?|L?t @?_ |i LM tihi_ V+ hit_@*t @hi ?i}@|i*) ULhhi*@|i_ t}}it|?} |@| |i uLh4ih UL4Thti @ t4@** ?i}@|i ULhhiU|L? Lu |i @U|@* <tLU!t< |L |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i

(187) f.

(188) 0.0096. INTERVENTION FED_FUNDS_RATE. 0.0080. 0.0064. 0.0048. 0.0032. 0.0016. 0.0000. -0.0016 1986. 1988. 1990. 1992. 1994. 1996. 1998. 6}hi SG Bh@Tt Lu |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i E_L||i_ *?i @?_ |i _ihi_ ?|ihi?|L?tc 8 s|S|o  8 s|?e EtL*_ *?i iU@ti |i *L?}h? 4T@U| Lu Tih4@?i?| tLU!t |L |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i @t t}?€U@?| E|L} TLt|ic ?@|L? t UL?|hL**@M*i ) @TT*)?} |i UL?|hL* h*i E

(189) c ?@|L? L*_ @i MiUL4i t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ @ |@h}i| 4i@? Lu 2I @t **t|h@|i_ ? 6}hi . OLiihc |i _gihi?Ui Mi|ii? |i <?i UL?|hL**i_< ?@|L? h@|i @?_ |i LMtihi_ ?@|L? t ?L| ih) *@h}i ? |t TihL_. S. L?U*tL?t. @ti_ L? |i UL?|i}h@|i_ V+ 4L_i* |t T@Tih @t _ihi_ @ t4T*i TL*U) UL?|hL* h*i hi*@|i_ |L |i _tUhiT@?U) Mi|ii? |i @U|@* @?_ _ithi_ @*i Lu |i |@h}i| @h@M*ic @?_ |L |i i^*Mh4 ihhLht ? |i iUL?L4) @t _itUhMi_ M) |i UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L?t Ai hit*|t @hi }i? uLh |i U@ti i? |i ?4Mih Lu |@h}i|t @hi |i t@4i @t |i ?4

(190) .

(191) 0.064. ANNUAL_INFL ANNUAL_INFL_NEW. 0.056. 0.048. 0.040. 0.032. 0.024. 0.016. 0.008. 0.000 1987. 1989. 1991. 1993. 1995. 1997. 6}hi .G ??@* ?@|L? EtL*_ *?i @?_ |i ?i @??@* ?@|L? E_L| |i_ *?ic t?} |i UL?|hL* h*i E

(192)  @| @** |4i TL?|t.

(193) 2.

(194) Mih Lu ?t|h4i?|t @?_ i? |i LMiU|i t |L U@?}i @ }i? ThLUitt |L @ t|@|L?@h) ThLUitt | @ 4i@? }i? M) |i _ithi_ |@h}i| @*i `i? |i UL?|hL* h*i t @TT*i_ @| @** |4i TL?|t |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i |@h}i| @h@M*i U@?}i @t @ hit*| Lu ?|ihi??} ? |i 4@h!i|c M| |i T@h@4i|iht Lu |i L|ih i^@|L?t Lu |i 4L_i* _L ?L| U@?}i Ai ?i ThLUitt t t|** }i?ih@|i_ M) @ V+ 4L_i* ? U |i |@h}i| @h@M*i t ?L t|@|L?@h) @hL?_ |i |@h}i| @*i At hit*| L*_t ?_ih UL?|hL* *@M*|)c i Thitti_ @t @ UL?_|L? L? |i i*i4i?|t Lu |i *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h  Ai |iLhi|U@* hit*|t ihi @TT*i_ |L N5 4L?i|@h) _@|@ W? |i TihL_ i @4?i_ |i 4Lt| 4TLh|@?| ?t|h4i?| ti_ M) |i 6i_ih@* +itihi @?! @t LTi? 4@h!i| LTih@|L?t | |i ThTLti Lu U@?}?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i |L 4@!i | uL**L |i 6i_<t |@h}i| h@|i tt4?} |@| |t €ht| UL?|hL* LTih@|L? Lh!t i** E@t | LMLt*) _Litc t|@?_@h_ |iLh) @tt4it |@| @? ?|ihi?|L? |L |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i €ht| U@?}it |i tLh||ih4 4@h!i| h@|itc |i? |i *L?}|ih4 4@h!i| h@|it @?_c €?@**)c @ |i |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 Lu |i iUL?L4)c |i €?@* |@h}i| E|i }L@* @h@M*i ? |i _ithi_ _hiU|L? Ai igiU|i?itt Lu 4L?i|@h) TL*U) t |t _iTi?_i?| L? |ihi Mi?} @? i T*L|@M*i hi*@|L?tT uhL4 |i ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| @ |i 4@UhLiUL?L4U |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 |L |i €?@* |@h}i|c |i ?@|L? h@|i Ai i4ThU@* @ttitt4i?| @t _L?i ? |L t|iTtG W? |i €ht| t|iT |i UL?|hL**@M*|) Lu @? ?|ih4i_@|i |@h}i| E|i

(195) 4L?|t |M** h@|i M) |i 6i_ @t i @4?i_ M@ti_ L? _@*) _@|@ W? |i tiUL?_ t|iT |i |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@?t4 uhL4 |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i |L tLh||ih4 4@h!i| h@|it @?_ uhL4 |i *@||ih |L |i 4@UhLiUL?L4) @?_ |i ?@|L? h@|i @t it|4@|i_ M@ti_ L? 4L?|*) _@|@ W? ML| t|iTt |i U*@4 |@| ?@|L? U@? Mi UL?|hL**i_ M) |i 6i_ih@* +itihi @?! ?Uhi@t?} |i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|i __ ?L| hiUii i4ThU@* tTTLh| t?} |i _i€?|L?t @?_ 4L_i**?} uh@4iLh! _tUtti_ ihi Ahii 4TLh|@?| UL?_|L?t ?ii_i_ uLh tLh||ih4 ?|ihit| h@|i UL? |hL* |L Lh! @t _ithi_ __ ?L| hiUii i4ThU@* tTTLh| ? |i _@|@G  Ai 6tih T@h|)c U @tt4it |@| i TiU|i_ ?@|L? t _i|ih

(196)

(197).

(198) 4??} ?L4?@* ?|ihit| h@|it @?_ |@| hi@* ?|ihit| h@|i t UL?t|@?| Lh t|@|L?@h)  Ai i TiU|@|L?t )TL|itt Lu ?|ihit| h@|itc U @tt4it |@| |i tThi@_ Mi|ii? ?|ihit| h@|it Lu _gihi?| 4@|h|it tL*_ Mi t|@|L?@h) @?_ UL?ti^i?|*) |@| L?i UL44L? |hi?_ t _h?} |i ?|ihit| h@|it  Ai *?! Mi|ii? ?|ihit| h@|it Lu _gihi?| 4@|h|)c |@| t @t t4i_ |L h? uhL4 |i tLh| h@|it ti| M) |i Ui?|h@* M@?! |L |i *L?}|ih4 4@h!i| h@|it L?i Lu |i ?L4?@* ?|ihit| h@|it E|i ui_ih@* u?_t h@|ic |i

(199) @?_ S 4L?|t |hi@th) M** h@|itc @?_ |i f )i@ht }Lih?4i?| ML?_ h@|i @TTi@hi_ UL?|i}h@|i_ | W ?@|L? h@|i EU ?_ih i@! @tt4T|L?t Lu h@|L?@* @}i?|t tL*_ Mi UL?|i}h@|i_ | i TiU|i_ ? @|L? L?tt|i?| | |t Eati*tc bbb i uL?_ |@| |i tThi@_t ihi ?L| T@hti t|@|L?@h)c ?_U@|?} 4Lhi |@? L?i UL44L? |hi?_ ? |i |ih4 t|hU|hi Lu |t TihL_ iih|i*ittc L4L}i?i|) Mi|ii? |i 4@h!i| h@|it @t @UUiT|i_ _i4L?t|h@|?} |i U*Lti *?!t Mi|ii? ?L4 ?@* 4@h!i| h@|it 6?@**)c |i *?! @t uhL4 |i *L?}|ih4 ML?_ h@|i |L |i tLh|ih i?_ Lu |i |ih4 t|hU|hic @t _i€?i_ M) |i i@! i L }i?i|) |it|t @?_ |i it|4@|i_ @_t|4i?| _)?@4Utc @?_ ?L| |i L|ih @) @hL?_ At t UL?tt|i?| | |i hit*|t ? ati*t @?_ @U#L? @*_ E2fff@c 2fffM ihi _L4it|U @?_ uLhi}? |h@?t4ttL? igiU|t L? ?@|L?c ?|ihit| h@|itc @?_ hi@* i U@?}i h@|it ihi ?it|}@|i_ 5iih@* L|ih i4ThU@* t|_it M@ti_ L? ,hLTi@? _@|@ @i t4 *@h*) uL?_ 4L?i|@h) igiU|t L? ?@|L? |L Mi ?i}*}M*i ? |i *@t| _iU@_it Lu ?Uhi@ti_ }*LM@*3@|L? @?_ U@T|@* *Mih@*3@|L? Eati*tc bbH *tLc |i hL*i Lu ?@|L?@h) i TiU|@|L?t @?_ |ih igiU| L? uLh @h_ E@}i UL?|h@U|tc @?_ Lu i Uitt @}}hi}@|i _i4@?_ uLh _i4@?_T** ?@|L? tii4 |L @i MiUL4i *itt t}?€U@?| Eati*tc 2fff AihiuLhic Ui?|h@* M@?!t tii4 |L Th4@h*) @i U@ti_ ULt|Tt ?@|L? i? ? Uhi@t?} ?|ihit| h@|it |L UhM ?@|L?@h) i TiU|@|L?t @?_ |L _iUhi@ti _i4@?_T** igiU|t L? ?@|L?

(200) e.

(201) .. +iuihi?Uit. jaAc  BAa + NtWNA E2fffG i |LL*t uLh |i _)?@4U @?@*)tt Lu UL?|i}h@|i_ V+ 4L_i*tc #T@h|4i?|L _ ,UL?L4U@ i hL _3L?ic L*|iU?UL _ *@?L iULThLTL*4|%L4i%+LUULLtUL? iAjBc  BAa , cNAajB EbbbG wL?}h? U@t@*|) | @? @TT*U@|L? |L ?|ih?@|L?@* *?!t Mi|ii? *L?}|ih4 ?|ihit| h@|itc  uLh_ **i|? Lu ,UL?L4Ut @?_ 5|@|t|Utc Sc DeDDSH ,BiaBc +c a DB,e BAa  Dji|,ji EbbHG L?i|@h) TL* U) h*it ? Th@U|Ui 5L4i ?|ih?@|L?@* i_i?Uic ,hLTi@? ,UL?L4U +iic e2c f

(202)

(203) fS. $NNiA"c a BAa #6 QjAai+ EbbHc Bi`? ? ?|ihu@Ui |L i4ThU@* 4L_i**?}c A4Mih*@!i L?t*|@?|t .WNbAc EbbbG BL|i?Mh}G O@?ti? @?_ @h|?iht c iUL?UL4 DNA5B,Nc a EbbeG 6i @*|ih?@|i 4i|L_t Lu it|4@|?} *L?} h? i^*Mh4 hi*@|L?tTtc aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUtc Sfc 2f

(204) 2

(205)

(206)  QBAtjAc O BAa 5 cNBAtjA EbbbG 5L4i |it|t uLh T@h@4i|ih UL?t|@?U) ? |i UL?|i}h@|i_ V+c ,UL?L4i|hUt aLh?@*c 2c

(207) fS

(208)

(209)

(210)  QBAtjAc O BAa k ctj,t EbbeG A5 ? +A5c @? @* |L L?|i}h@|L? ?@*)tt Lu A4i 5ihit ,@?t|L?G ,5AWc it|4@UL4 QBAtjAc , BAa  -BOj" EbbHG 5|@|L?@h|) @?_ @t)4T |L|Ut Lu 4*|@h@|i +O |4i tihit | @? @TT*U@|L? |L hLMt|?itt Lu UL?|i}h@|L? @?@*)ttc #iT@h|4i?| Lu AiLhi|U@* 5|@|t|Utc N?ih t|) Lu LTi?@}i?c t|@|!_!%h@Mi!% cNBAtjAe 7 EbbSG w!i*LL_M@ti_ W?uihi?Ui ? L?|i}h@|i_ ViU|Lh |Lhi}hitti L_i*t  uLh_G  uLh_ N?iht|) hitt cNBAtjAe 7 BAa ctj,te l Ebb2G Ait|?} t|hU|h@* ) TL|itit ? @ 4*|@h@|i UL?|i}h@|L? @?@*)tt Lu |i    @?_ |i NW uLh Nkc aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUt D

(211) c 22ee

(212) D.

(213) cNBAtjAe 7 BAa ctj,te l EbbeG W_i?|€U@|L? Lu |i *L?}h? @?_ |i tLh|h? t|hU|hi ? @TT*U@|L? |L |i W5w 4L_i*c aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4i|hUtc S

(214) c .

(215) S ctj,tc k EbbHG @?}?} 4L?i|@h) |h@?t4ttL? 4iU@ ?t4t |? |i ,Nc ,4ThU@* ,UL?L4Utc 2

(216) c eDDeH ctj,tc k EbbbG L_i*t @?_ hi*@|L?t ? iUL?L4Ut @?_ iUL?L4i|hUtc aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4U i|L_L*L})c Sc 2Db2bf ctj,tc k E2fffG ,UL?L4U @tTiU|t Lu L??} |i ,NG +i iU|L?t @u|ih |i #@?t ?Lc #iT@h|4i?| Lu ,UL?L4Utc N?iht|) Lu LTi?@}i?c iUL?!%L!L! ctj,te l BAa - BW$NAB,a E2fff@G W?|ih?@|L?@* T@h |) hi*@|L?tTt Mi|ii? Bih4@?) @?_ |i N?|i_ 5|@|itG @ L?| 4L_ i**?} @TThL@Uc 5M4||i_ uLh TM*U@|L?c iUL?!%L!L! ctj,te l BAa - BW$NAB,a E2fffMG W?|ihit| h@|i @?_ ThUi *?!@}it Mi|ii? |i N5 @?_ a@T@?G ,_i?Ui uhL4 |i TLt| hi||L? `LL_t TihL_c 5M4||i_ uLh TM*U@|L?c iUL?!%L!L! ijt|NAc  a BAa  + B}BA EbH2G Ai AiLh) Lu ,UL ?L4U L*U)c 5|@|Ut @?_ #)?@4Ut @4Mh_}iG @4Mh_}i N?iht|) hitt iNj||c A Ebb.G 5Lh| h? _)?@4Ut ? UL?|i}h@|i_ t)t |i4tc  uLh_ **i|? Lu ,UL?L4Ut @?_ 5|@|t|Utc Dbc efDe22 CB+,Nic a Ebb

(217) G #tUhi|L? ihtt TL*U) h*it ? Th@U|Uic @h?i}i+LUit|ih L?uihi?Ui 5ihit L? M*U L*U)c

(218) bc bD2e CB+,Nic a Ei_ EbbbG L?i|@h) L*U) +*it U@}LG N? iht|) Lu U@}L hitt.

(219) S.

(220) . TTi?_ G w?i@h UL?|hL* h*it. Ai ThTLti Lu |t TTi?_ t |L Thiti?| @ 4Lhi }i?ih@* uLh4*@|L? Lu |i t4T*i *?i@h UL?|hL* h*i _tUtti_ ? |i 4@? M*! Lu |i T@Tih TT*U@|L?t Lu UL?|hL* |iLh) ? iUL?L4Ut @i Mii? i |i?ti*) |hi@|i_ uLh t|@|L?@h) _@|@c tii uLh i @4T*i hit|L? @?_ @}@? EbH2c M| ?L| ? |i UL?|i | Lu UL?|i}h@|i_ V+ 4L_i*t AihiuLhic |i hit*|t ihi @hi @*4Lt| i U*ti*) _ihi_ uLh |i *@||ih 4L_i*t Ai }i?ih@* LMiU|i t |L U@?}i tL4i |@h}i| @h@M*it tL |@| |i) MiUL4i t|@|L?@h) | |i 4i@? }i? M) |i _ithi_ |@h}i| @*it Ai hit*|t @hi _ihi_ uLh |i U@ti i? |i ?4Mih Lu |@h}i|t t |i t@4i @t |i ?4Mih Lu ?t|h4i?|t ) @TT*)?} |i UL?|hL* h*i @| @** TL?|t Lu |4i |i _)?@4Ut Lu |i ThLUitt U@?}i @?_ i ?ii_ |L _ihi |i ThLTih|it Lu |i ThLUitt hit*|?} uhL4 |i ?i 4L_i* Ai 4@? hit*| t }i? ? 5iU|L? c AiLhi4 Dc uLh |i UL?|hL* Lu @ ?L?t|@|L?@h) ThLUitt | L?i *@} @?_ ?L |hi?_c @?_ i |i?_i_ ? 5iU|L? 2 |L @ ThLUitt | tiih@* *@}t @?_ @ |hi?_ 6?@**)c ? 5iU|L? 

(221) i }i |i hit*|t uLh L |L U@?}i |i 4i@? Lu @ t|@|L?@h) |@h}i| @h@M*i |L MiUL4i |i _ithi_ |@h}i| @*i. .  }i?ih@* *?i@h UL?|hL* h*i. `i @tt4i ihi |@| |i t4T*i V+E 4L_i* E2 _itUhMit |i 4@UhLi UL?L4) @?_ _i€?i @ }i?ih@* *?i@h UL?|hL* h*i uhL4 @ R  6 4@|h Vc @?_ @? 6 iU|Lh Vf M) 7EV %|  Vf  %S|o | ' %| n @ `i? @TT*)?} |i h*i @| @** |4i TL?|t i Uhi@|i @ ?i 4L_i* U }i?ih@|it |i ?i ThLUitt %?e  @ti_ L? %?e |i Ui?|h@* M@?! ULLtit | | @? ?|ihi?|L? }i? M) |i UL?|hL* h*i %S|o 7V %?e  @7Vf  | ' EUR n @ |

(222) .. ES.

(223) Ai 4@h!i| L? |i L|ih @?_ }i?ih@|it |i ?i | @*i Lu |i ?i ThLUitt M@ti_ L? 4L_i* E2  S|o %?e |n ' EUR n kq %|  k> n 0|n . E.. `i |i? ThLi AiLhi4 D Wu %| t }i? M) |i 4L_i* {%| ' kEq  %|3  > n 0| @?_ i @TT*) |i UL?|hL* h*i %S|o 7EV %|  Vf c | ' %| n @. EH. @| @** |4i TL?|tc |i? |i ?i ThLUitt %?e t }i? M) @ V+E 4L_i* | Ai ?i ThLUitt t @? UE ThLUitt | Eo n 6_4i?tL?@* UL? |i}h@|?} tT@Ui rREqc V @?_ @_t|4i?| tT@Ui rREkc @c u @?_ L?*) u         U n q k EU n q kq @ 7 o o   e} Eb  V k U6 n V EUR n kq  7@  W? |t U@ti. mV @m 9' f. E2f. t t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? E> c Vf  @?_ @ *L?}h? 4T@U| @?_ Eqc V %?e | 4@|h }i? M)  ?e '   @EV @3 V  E2 t V+E | ULiUi?| 4@|h U6 nV @7 Oi?Uic Wu V k ' fc |i? V %?e | | t |i ?Lti @hL?_ Vf u @?_ L?*) u U6 n V @ 7 ' f. E22. Atc M) @__?} @ 7EV %|  Vf  |L |i ThLUitt @| @** |4i TL?|t i hi4Li 6 ?| hLL|tc u UL?_|L? Eb t t@|t€i_ At UL?_|L? h*it L| i T*Lti hLL|tc ?L| L?*) Lu |i ?i UL4M?@|L?t V %?e M| @*tL | uLh q  %?e  W| t |ihiuLhi ?ii_i_ uLh |i ?i ThLUitt Eqc V %?e |L Mi | |

(224) H.

(225) t|@|L?@h) W? T@h|U*@hc u i ULLti V k ' fc |i hit*|t t4T*u) UL? t_ih@M*)c @?_ |i ThLUitt V %?e MiUL4it @|Lhi}hitti @?_ ?_ih E22 | ii? |i ?Lti Wu V k ' fc |i t|@|L?@h) hLL|t Lu |i Lh}?@* ThLUitt @hi @*tL hLL|t Lu |i ?i ThLUitt Ai 4TLh|@?| ?iUitt@h) UL?_|L? uLh @Ui?} t|@|L?@h|) Lu |i @h@M*i V %| t }i? M) mV @m 9' fc tii E2f Atc ? |i i @4T*i ? 5iU|L? 2 i U@? 4@!i |i ?L?t|@|L?@h) ?@|L? h@|i Z| t|@|L?@h) t?} |i ?|ihit| h@|i -| @t @? ?t|h4i?| ThL_i_ |i hi*i@?| i*i4i?| Lu |i  4@|h t ?L?3ihLG Zc- 9' f hLLu 5Mt|||?} ES ?|L E. i _ihi |i i^@|L? uLh |i ?i ThLUitt  7V %?e  @7Vf   k> n 0|n %?e |n ' EUR n kq EEUR n @ |. Lh.   @ {%?e |n ' Ekc EUR n kq 7. q  %?e > |  ?e V %|  Vf.  n 0|n c. E2

(226) . U _i€?i @ V+E 4L_i* uLh %?e  L?_|L? E

(227)  uLh |i ThLUitt |L | Mi @ UL?|i}h@|i_ UE ThLUitt t }i? M) Eb Wu Eb t t@|t€i_ |i?     q k EUo n q  kq  @      7  V kEq  k3 q  @m ' mq  kmmV @m  V k V EUR n kq  @  ' mq kmmV @ t ?L?3ihLc U ThLit E2f Wu UL?_|L? Eb L*_t |ihi @hi 6 n o UL?|i}h@|?} iU|Lht Eqc V @?_ |i @_t|4i?| ULiUi?|t @i U@?}i_ |L k?e ' Ekc EUR n kq  7@ Oi?Uic. rREk?e  ' rREkc @. Wu V k ' fc UL?_|L? Eb t4T*€it |L         U n q k EU n q kq @ 7 o o  c e}    f U6 n V @7

(228) b.

(229) U t i^@*i?| |L me}EUo n q  km  @?_ me}EU6 n V @7m  *|T*)?} E2

(230)  M) V c uLh U V k ' fc i €?_ @? i^@|L? uLh V %?e G |  V {%?e 7EV %?e  Vf  n V 0|n c |n ' V @ |. U tLt |@| V %?e t @ V+E ThLUitt Wu ? @__|L? V @ 7 ' U6 c | | t |i ?Lti @hL?_ |t 4i@? AL _ihi |i ?i 4@|h  ?e i €ht| U@*U*@|i 3      2 q  EUR n kq  7 @ qk ' V k V EUR n kq  7@ 2 22 ihi  2 2 22. ' Eq  k3 n Eq  k3 q  EUR n kq  7@EV 7@3 V k Eq  k3 ' EV 7@3 V k Eq  k3 '  Eq  k3 q  EUR n kq  7 @EV 7@3 ' EV 7@3. @?_ |i? €?_  . ?e. . ' UR  Ekc EUR n kq 7 @. q k V k. q  EUR n kq  7 @ V EUR n kq  7@. 3 Eqc V. U hi_Uit |L |i i ThittL? }i? ? E2. 2.  4L_i* | tiih@* *@}t @?_ @ *?i@h |hi?_. i | i @TT*) |i 4@? hit*| ? AiLhi4 D |L @ 4L_i* | 4Lhi *@}t @?_ @ *?i@h |hi?_ `i @**L |i UL?|hL* h*i |L _iTi?_ L? _i@|L?t uhL4 |hi?_ Lu Uhhi?| @?_ *@}}i_ LMtih@|L?tG %S|o |. & [ ' %| n @7E V E%|3n  E|   n   Vf  '. ef.

(231) W| t UL?i?i?| |L ?|hL_Ui |i t|@U!i_ ThLUitt AL !iiT ?L|@|L? t4T*i i @tt4i ihi |@| & '

(232) @?_ _i€?i 4 3 4 3 3 4 > %|  | 0| %| ' C %|3  E|   D c 0| ' C f D c >  ' C f Dc E2e %|32  E|  2 f f @?_ h|i E @t @? ihhLh ULhhiU|L? 4L_i* ? UL4T@?L? uLh4. ihi. { %| ' k  Eq %|3  >  n 0| c. E2D. 4 3 4 k K K2 kz k  ' C f UR f D c k  z ' C K kz D c f f UR K2 kz. E2S. 4 3 4 f qz q UR q ' C f UR UR D c qz ' C qz D  f f UR qz. E2.. 3. 3. `i €?_.     k z EUR  K  K2 qz ' kz Kqz c qz ' kz. U uLh @? UE ThLUitt @t u** h@?!c EaL@?ti? bbSc AiLhi4 e2 6?@**)c i €?_ |i *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h 3. 4 3 4 UR UR   3  kz  z ' C UR D  C K D c  ' qz E qz  k UR K2. E2H.   ' qz EkzKqz 3 kz . E2b. ihi. `i ?L _i€?i |i i |i?_i_ ?t|h4i?|c |@h}i| @?_ UL?|hL* 4@|hUit 3 4 3 4 4 V K @  ' C V2 D c @  ' C f D c K ' C f D c V f f V

(233) 3. @?_ uLh4*@|i |i }i?ih@* hit*| uLh 4L_i* E e.

(234) AiLhi4 S Wu E %| t @ V+E& ThLUitt }i? M) E @?_ E i @TT*) |i hiUhti*) _i€?i_ UL?|hL* h*i %S|o |. '. %?e |. n. @7V E%?e |. &3 [  | n @7E Vn E%S|o |3  E|    Vf c E

(235) f '. @| @** |4i TL?|tc @?_ E |i ?i ThLUitt t _i€?i_ M) |i i^@|L?t %?e |n. ' EUR n kq. . %S|o |. .  k4 |  k> n. &3 [. K E{%S|o |n3   n 0|n c. ' S|o  c %S|o |i? |i t|@U!i_ ThLUitt E%?e | |3 c    c %|3&n  t }i? M) @ V+E 4L_i*. Ai t|@U!i_ ThLUitt t @? UE ThLUitt | o n 6 UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L?t u @?_ L?*) u        3      U n q k  EU n q k   q @  E @ @   o o e}   E

(236)   V k  U6 n V   EUR n k  q  @E@ @ 3  W? |t U@ti. mV @m 9' f. E

(237) 2.  4 |  > @?_ V E%?e  |  Vf @hi t|@|L?@h) | 4i@? 3ihL @?_ q  %?e | | S& Oihi EV ' ' V  Ai t|@U!i_ ThLUitt @t @ *L?}h? 4T@U| 4@|h }i? M) 3 3 4 4 UR UR E UR F E K F  F E E F  3  E

(238)

(239)  E  F E  @EV @ V  E F  C  D C D  UR K&3  ' fc Lh i^@*i?|*) Wu V k   ' V EUR c K c    c K&3 c k V ' fc V. E

(240) e. S  S|o  n &3 7 |i? V %?e | '2 V %|3n t @ V+E | ULiUi?| 4@|h U6 nV @ 6h|ih4Lhic u U6 n V @7 ' fc E

(241) D S  S|o n &3 |i? V %?e | '2 V %|3n t |i ?Lti @hL?_ |t 4i@? e2.

Riferimenti

Documenti correlati

En liant Francfort à la figure de Charlemagne, le propos de cette brève présentation sera d’approfondir l’hypothèse émise par Robert Folz lorsqu’il passait en revue

Come spesso accade, è Heinrich Heine a cogliere con lo sguardo più acuto le contraddizioni im- plicite nella modernizzazione realizzata attraverso la tecnica, quando, nelle pagine

A novel deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) is proposed in this paper based on a nonlinear regression model to map the interaction force and the sEMG signals. By combin-

- anche per quanto riguarda la capacità di condurre in totale autonomia un espe- rimento seguendo la metodologia scientifica e di sviluppare ragionamenti con le modalità tipiche

Controversy&amp;mapping&amp;is&amp;a&amp;teaching&amp;and&amp;research&amp;method&amp;derived&amp;from&amp;the&amp;Science&amp;and&amp;

In the second step, the available cloud resources and their management policy are considered. As costs are dictated by the usage of resources in time and volume, the number of VMs

Numerical results on large-scale quadratic problems arising in the training of support vector machines show the effectiveness of an implemented decomposition scheme derived from

tibiotalar joint, the anterior, medial and lateral compartments of the ankle tendons, the mid-tarsal joints, MTP and IP joints, and the interdigital web space.. B Prone with the