La liquidita' globale aiuta le previsioni d'inflazione?
Testo completo
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12) .
(13). . ! .
(14) "# " $%&'()%*+,. -- )''./)'0'.
(15) ,QGLFH . ,QWURGX]LRQHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. . 'RHVJOREDOOLTXLGLW\KHOSWRIRUHFDVW86LQIODWLRQ"ಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ 0RGHOOLGLSUHYLVLRQHQXRYHHYHFFKLHSURSRVWHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ /ಬDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ $QDOLVLHGLVFXVVLRQHGHOODUREXVWH]]DGHLULVXOWDWLಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ $. /ಬLQIRUPD]LRQHGHOODFRPSRQHQWHJOREDOHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. %. 7UDVIRUPD]LRQLDOWHUQDWLYHGHOOಬLQGLFHGLSUH]]RಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. & $OWULULQRPDWLPRGHOOLSHUODSUHYLVLRQHGHOOಬLQIOD]LRQHಹಹಹSDJ ' %UHDNVWUXWWXUDOLHVHOH]LRQHGHOFDPSLRQHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ (. 5HJRODRHFFH]LRQHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. . 'DWLHPRGHOOLSUHYLVLYLಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. . &RPSRQHQWHJOREDOH9VFRPSRQHQWHLQWHUQDLQIOD]LRQHVWDWXQLWHQVHಹಹಹಹSDJ $QDOLVLGHOODVWDELOLW¢ಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ 1XRYDVHOH]LRQHGHOFDPSLRQHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. . &RPSRQHQWHJOREDOH9VFRPSRQHQWHLQWHUQDLQIOD]LRQHLQJOHVHಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ $QDOLVLGHOODVWDELOLW¢ಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ 1XRYDVHOH]LRQHGHOFDPSLRQHಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. . 'LVFXVVLRQHHDQDOLVLGHLULVXOWDWLಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ 0RGHOORJOREDOHDFRQIURQWR86$YV8.ಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. . &RQFOXVLRQLಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ $SSHQGLFH$ಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ %LEOLRJUDILDಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹಹSDJ. 2.
(16) ,QWURGX]LRQH &RPH VXJJHULWR GD $QWRQHOOR 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 3DROR 6XULFR QHO UHFHQWH SDVVDWR FDUDWWHUL]]DWR GD XQಬLQIOD]LRQH EDVVD H VWDELOH QHOOD JUDQ SDUWH GHL SDHVL VYLOXSSDWL L ULFHUFDWRUL JOL VWXGLRVL GHO PRQGR DFFDGHPLFR H OH LVWLWX]LRQL SROLWLFKH KDQQR DYXWR PROWH GLIILFROW¢ QHOOಬLQGLYLGXDUH XQ LQGLFDWRUH HIILFDFH SHU SRWHU HIIHWWXDUH SUHYLVLRQL DFFXUDWH GHO OLYHOORIXWXURGHLSUH]]L 9LVWD OಬLPSRUWDQ]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH SHU LO VXFFHVVR GHOOD SROLWLFD PRQHWDULD PROWLHVSHUWLGHOVHWWRUHKDQQRLQGDJDWRLOUDSSRUWRGLOXQJRSHULRGRWUDRIIHUWDGLPRQHWDH OಬLQIOD]LRQH/XFDV
(17) DGHVHPSLRDQDOL]]DOHLPSOLFD]LRQLGHOODWHRULDTXDQWLWDWLYDGHOOD PRQHWD GRFXPHQWDQGR FRPH XQ FDPELR QHO WDVVR GL FUHVFLWD GHOOಬDJJUHJDWR PRQHWDULR SURGXFHXQXJXDOYDULD]LRQHGHOWDVVRGಬLQIOD]LRQHHGHOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHQRPLQDOH /D FRUUHOD]LRQH WUD FUHVFLWD GL PRQHWD H WDVVR GಬLQIOD]LRQH YLHQH XOWHULRUPHQWH LQYHVWLJDWD GD %HQDWL
(18) DQDOL]]DQGR OH VHULH VWRULFKH GHJOL LQGLFL LQIODWWLYL H GHJOL DJJUHJDWL PRQHWDULSHUOHSULQFLSDOLHFRQRPLHVYLOXSSDWHGLPRVWUDHPSLULFDPHQWHLOUDSSRUWRGLOXQJR SHULRGRHVLVWHQWHWUDOHGXHYDULDELOL 1RQ VRUSUHQGH TXLQGL FKH OD %DQFD &HQWUDOH (XURSHD XWLOL]]L LO FRQWUROOR VXOOಬRIIHUWD GL PRQHWDFRPHSLODVWURGHOODVXDVWUDWHJLDGLVWDELOL]]D]LRQHGHLSUH]]L 7XWWDYLD QHO UHFHQWHSDVVDWR DOFXQL VWXGLRVL WUD FXL *DO® HG DOWUL
(19) KDQQR PHVVR LQ GLVFXVVLRQHLOFRQWHQXWRLQIRUPDWLYRGHOODPRQHWDQD]LRQDOHSHUODSUHYLVLRQHGHOOಬLQIOD]LRQH LQWHUQD 4XHVWD RSLQLRQH WURYD VYLOXSSL QHOOಬDQDOLVL GL 5RJRII
(20) LO TXDOH GLPRVWUD FKH L WDVVL GಬLQIOD]LRQH LQ FHUWH HFRQRPLH LQGXVWULDOL]]DWH FRQGLYLGRQR XQD VLJQLILFDWLYD FRPSRQHQWH LQWHUQD]LRQDOHFRPXQH,PSRUWDQWLFDPELDPHQWLGHLWDVVLGಬLQIOD]LRQHLQWHUQD]LRQDOLSRVVRQR TXLQGLULIOHWWHUHYDULD]LRQLGHOODOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORJOREDOH /D FUHVFLWD PRQHWDULD LQWHUQD]LRQDOH SX´ DOORUD HVVHUH XWLOL]]DWD SHU OD SUHYLVLRQH GHOOಬLQIOD]LRQHLQWHUQD 6HJXHQGROHLQGLFD]LRQLHPSLULFKHHPHUVHQHOOHDQDOLVLGHJOLVWXGLRVLGHOVHWWRUH$QWRQHOOR 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 3DROR 6XULFR KDQQR DQDOL]]DWR LO SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR GHOOD OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR JOREDOHPLVXUDWDFRPHODPHGLDVHPSOLFHGHLWDVVLGLFUHVFLWDGHOOಬDJJUHJDWRPRQHWDULRSHU OH HFRQRPLH GHO * RWWHQHQGR XQಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL GL LQIOD]LRQH VXSHULRUH ULVSHWWRDLPRGHOOLSUHGLWWLYLWUDGL]LRQDOPHQWHXVDWL 3.
(21) 3DUWHQGR GDO ODYRUR GL 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 6XULFR TXHVWD WHVL GL ODXUHD YXROH ULVSRQGHUH DOOD VHJXHQWH GRPDQGD LO FRQWHQXWR LQIRUPDWLYR GHO GHQDUR ª DQFRUD ULIOHVVR QHOOಬDJJUHJDWR PRQHWDULRQD]LRQDOHRSSXUHVLªWUDVIHULWRLQPLVXUHGLOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOH" 3HU FRQGXUUH LO FRQIURQWR HPSLULFR GHOOಬDFFXUDWH]]D SUHGLWWLYD SHU OಬLQIOD]LRQH WUD OD FRPSRQHQWH PRQHWDULD LQWHUQD]LRQDOH H TXHOOD GRPHVWLFD XWLOL]]R FRPH LQGLFDWRUH GHOOD OLTXLGLW¢LOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVH GLEUHYHHGLOXQJRWHUPLQH
(22) VRVWLWXHQGRORDOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWD GHOODPRQHWD 1HOOಬDQDOLVL VXFFHVVLYD KR TXLQGL YDOXWDWR LO SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR PDUJLQDOH GL XQD PLVXUD GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH H LO SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR PDUJLQDOH GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH GRPHVWLFR SHU OಬLQIOD]LRQH GHJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL HG KR HVWHVR OD VWHVVD YHULILFD HPSLULFD DG XQಬDOWUD HFRQRPLDGHO*Oಬ,QJKLOWHUUD 5LVXOWD FKH LO PRGHOOR SUHGLWWLYR EDVDWR VXO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH FDOFRODWR DQFKಬHVVR FRPH PHGLD VHPSOLFH GHL WDVVL GಬLQWHUHVVH SHU L SDHVL GHO * SURGXFH SUHYLVLRQL GL LQIOD]LRQHPROWRSL»SUHFLVHULVSHWWRDOPRGHOOREDVDWRVXOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHLQWHUQR ,ULVXOWDWLVRQRUREXVWLDPLVXUHDOWHUQDWLYHGLLQIOD]LRQH /DPLDDQDOLVLSURFHGHLQTXHVWRRUGLQH ·. QHOODVH]LRQHSUHVHQWROಬLQGDJLQHFRQGRWWDGD'ಬ$JRVWLQRH6XULFR. ·. QHOOD VH]LRQH LOOXVWUR L GDWL L PRGHOOL GL SUHYLVLRQH HG L SDUDPHWUL XWLOL]]DWL SHU YDOXWDUHOಬDFFXUDWH]]D. ·. QHOOD VH]LRQH H SUHVHQWR L ULVXOWDWL RWWHQXWL ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH SHU OಬHFRQRPLD VWDWXQLWHQVHHGLQJOHVH. ·. QHOOD VH]LRQH GLVFXWR TXDQWR RWWHQXWR HPSLULFDPHQWH H DQDOL]]R OD UREXVWH]]D GHLULVXOWDWL. 4.
(23) 'RHVJOREDOOLTXLGLW\KHOSWRIRUHFDVW86LQIODWLRQ" ,QTXHVWRFDSLWRORSUHVHQWRLOODYRURVYROWRGD$QWRQHOOR'ಬ$JRVWLQRH3DROR6XULFR
(24). 0RGHOOLGLSUHYLVLRQHQXRYHHYHFFKLHSURSRVWH 1HO FRUVR GHJOL XOWLPL YHQWL DQQL OH GLQDPLFKH GHOO LQIOD]LRQH VRQR GLYHQWDWH SL» VLQFURQL]]DWH DSDUWLUHGDOOD ILQH GHJOL DQQL ಬGLYHUVLSDHVL KDQQRFRQGLYLVR HVSHULHQ]H VLPLOLFRQLQIOD]LRQHEDVVDHVWDELOH %DUVN\ H .LOLDQ
(25) RIIURQR XQD VSLHJD]LRQH PRQHWDULD GHOOD JUDQGH VWDJIOD]LRQH PRVWUDQGRFKHODOLTXLGLW¢PRQGLDOHªVWDWDIRUWHPHQWHFRUUHODWDFRQODSROLWLFDPRQHWDULDH O LQIOD]LRQHGHJOL6WDWL8QLWLGXUDQWHJOLDQQLಫ6HJXHQGRODVWHVVRSULQFLSLR5RJRII
(26) VRVWLHQH FKH XQ PLJOLRUDPHQWR GHOOH SROLWLFKH PRQHWDULH LQ WXWWR LO PRQGR ª VWDWR XQR GHL GULYHUSL»VLJQLILFDWLYLGHOJUDQGHPRGHUD]LRQH &LVRQRGLYHUVLFDQDOLDWWUDYHUVRLTXDOLODOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOHSX´DYHUHXQLPSDWWR VXOOD IXWXUD LQIOD]LRQH LQWHUQD DG HVHPSLR XQ FDQDOH GL WUDVPLVVLRQH RSHUD DWWUDYHUVR L WHUPLQLGHOORVFDPELR 6HLOWDVVRGLFDPELRQRQVXSHUDSLHQDPHQWHO DXPHQWRGHLSUH]]L GHOOHLPSRUWD]LRQLGLEHQLLQWHUPHGLHILQDOLOHLPSUHVHQD]LRQDOLVLWURYHUDQQRDGDIIURQWDUH FRVWLSL»HOHYDWLHGLFRQVXPDWRULDFKLHGHUHVDODULSL»HOHYDWLDVHJXLWRGHOGHWHULRUDPHQWR GHOORURSRWHUHG DFTXLVWR3HUORVWHVVRPRWLYRO DIIOXVVRGLFDSLWDOLGDOO HVWHURFKHQRQª VHJXLWRGDXQDYDOXWD]LRQHVXIILFLHQWHGHOWDVVRGLFDPELRSX´LQIOXHQ]DUHO HYROX]LRQHGHL SUH]]LVXOPHUFDWRLQWHUQR /ಬREELHWWLYRGHOODYRURUHDOL]]DWRGD'ಬ$JRVWLQRH6XULFRªTXHOORGLLQGLYLGXDUHXQQXRYR PRGR SHU SUHYHGHUH L PRYLPHQWL IXWXUL GHL SUH]]L LQWHUQL FROOHJDQGR OಬLQIOD]LRQH FRQ OD OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH SLXWWRVWR FKH TXDQWLILFDUH LO FRQWULEXWR UHODWLYR GHL GLYHUVL PHFFDQLVPLGLWUDVPLVVLRQH $WDOILQHKDQQRYDOXWDWRLOSRWHUHSUHGLWWLYRPDUJLQDOHGLXQDPLVXUDGHOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWD JOREDOHGHOODPRQHWDHLOSRWHUHSUHGLWWLYRPDUJLQDOHGHOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWDGRPHVWLFRGHOOD PRQHWDSHUOಬLQIOD]LRQHGHJOL6WDWL8QLWL ,GXHHFRQRPLVWLKDQQRXWLOL]]DWRWUHPLVXUHGLLQIOD]LRQHHSHURJQLPLVXUDKDQQRSUHYLVWR LOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWDGHOOಬLQIOD]LRQHGHOO KWULPHVWUHDQQXDOL]]DWR Ɏ ൌ ሾ െ ሿ ή . ͶͲͲ
(27) . 5.
(28) XWLOL]]DQGRWUHGLYHUVHVSHFLILFD]LRQL
(29). Ɏȁ ൌ Ƚͳ Ⱦͳ ή ሺሻ˭ ɂͳǡ ǡ. SUHYLVLRQLGLLQIOD]LRQHEDVDWHHVFOXVLYDPHQWHVXOULWDUGRGHOODSULPD GLIIHUHQ]DGHOO LQGLFHGHLSUH]]L
(30). Ɏȁ ൌ ˞ʹ Ⱦʹ ή ሺሻ˭ ɀʹ ή ሺሻ ɂʹǡ . ODVSHFLILFD$5YLHQHDXPHQWDWDDJJLXQJHQGRLOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWDGHOOD PRQHWDQHJOL6WDWL8QLWL
(31). ˭ȁ ൌ ˞͵ ˟͵ ή ሺሻ˭ ɀ͵ ή ሺሻ ˢ͵ǡ . ODVSHFLILFD$5ªDXPHQWDWDFRQOಬDJJLXQWDGLXQDPLVXUDGHOWDVVRGL FUHVFLWDGHOODPRQHWDQHOOHHFRQRPLHGHO* . 9LVWR FKH OH GHILQL]LRQL YDULDQR GD XQ SDHVH DOO DOWUR KDQQR VHOH]LRQDWR JOL DJJUHJDWL PRQHWDUL FKH VRQR SL» VLPLOL LQ WHUPLQL GL FRPSRVL]LRQH 0 SHU LO 5HJQR 8QLWR 0 SHU O ,WDOLD H OD )UDQFLD H 0 SHU WXWWL JOL DOWUL SDHVL/ LQIOD]LRQH YLHQH PLVXUDWD FRPH ORJ GLIIHUHQ]DGHO&RQVXPHU3ULFH,QGH[ &3,
(32) GHO3HUVRQDO&RQVXPSWLRQ([SHQGLWXUH'HIODWRU 3&('
(33) HGHO*'3GHIODWRU *'3'
(34) . . Figura_1 : liquidità globale e livello dei prezzi a differenti frequenze 6.
(35) ,JUDILFLLQ)LJXUDBVLULIHULVFRQRDXQWULPHVWUHHDXQRGXHHWUHDQQLGLLQIOD]LRQH LQWHUHVVDQWHQRWDUHFKHLSLFFKLHOHGHSUHVVLRQLGHOODOLTXLGLW¢JOREDOHVHPSUHSUHFHGHUHL SLFFKL H OH GHSUHVVLRQL GHO WDVVR G LQIOD]LRQH QHJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL4XHVWD FRUUHOD]LRQH ª SL»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
(36) ª LO SDUDPHWUR SHU YDOXWDUH O DFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL ͳ. ͳ Ͳͳ ሺǡ ǡ ሻ ൌ ሺɎ ෝǡȁ െ Ɏ ሻʹ ͳ െ Ͳ ͳ ൌ Ͳ. RVVLDOಬHUURUHTXDGUDWLFRPHGLRWUDLOWHPSRWHW GRYHืWืWK
(37) SHU ODYDULDELOHLDOOಬRUL]RQWHKXWLOL]]DQGRLOPRGHOORP . . /ಬDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQL ,O PRGHOOR $5 ULVWUHWWR ª XVDWR FRPH SDUDPHWUR GL ULIHULPHQWR H TXLQGL L VXRL 06)(V LQ FRUVLYRVRQRHVSUHVVLLQWHUPLQLDVVROXWL,ULVXOWDWLSHUJOLDOWULPRGHOOLVRQRSUHVHQWDWLFRPH 06)(. UHODWLYL. DO. 06)(. GHO. PRGHOOR. $5. LQ. TXDQWR. PRGHOOR. DQQLGDWR. *OL DVWHULVFKL LQGLFDQR LO ULILXWR GHOO LSRWHVL QXOOD FKH LO 06)( GHO PRGHOOR $5 ªXJXDOHDO06)(GHOPRGHOORQRQULVWUHWWR ,O WHVW VWDWLVWLFR VL EDVD VXO 06)() SURSRVWR GD &ODUN H 0F&UDFNHQ
(38) SHU PRGHOOL QLGLILFDWL4XHVWR WHVW KD XQD GLVWULEX]LRQH DVLQWRWLFD QRQ VWDQGDUG DSSURVVLPDELOH FRQ XQ HVSHULPHQWRGLERRWVWUDSFRQULSHWL]LRQL 7.
(39) Tabella 2.1: Relative MSFEs - 1990Q1:2006Q2 Orizzonte USA. 1. 4. 6. 8. CPI. AR. 2,38. 0,95. 0,85. 0,87. 0,85. 0,84. US money growth Global liquidity Global liquidity pc. 1,04 0,97 1,13 0,95* 1,00 1,06 PCE DEFLATOR. 1,07 0,69*** 0,84**. 1,12 0,55*** 0,71**. 1,15 0,44*** 0,64**. 1,29 0,33*** 0,58**. AR. 0,91. 0,65. 0,74. 0,84. 0,98. US money growth Global liquidity Global liquidity pc. 1,01 1,02 0,94* 0,69*** 0,95** 0,77*** PIL DEFLATOR. 1,11 0,60*** 0,62***. 1,13 0,56*** 0,55***. 1,12 0,47*** 0,48***. 1,18 0,47*** 0,42***. AR. 0,53. 0,30. 0,37. 0,43. 0,49. 0,54. US money growth Global liquidity Global liquidity pc. 1,16 0,93*** 0,85***. 1,47 0,82*** 0,81**. 1,38 0,66*** 0,74***. 1,44 0,55*** 0,66***. 1,41 0,50*** 0,56**. 1,47 0,52*** 0,48***. 0,64. 10. 12. Nota: Il test utilizzato per il confronto è quello proposto da Clark e McCracken e gli asterischi indicano che il MSFE del modello senza restrizioni è statisticamente diverso (e più preciso) rispetto al MSFE del parametro di riferimento (modello AR) ai livelli di significatività del 1% (* * *), del 5% (**) e del 10% (*).. (PHUJRQRXQDVHULHGLULVXOWDWLLQWHUHVVDQWLLQ7DEHOODODFUHVFLWDGHOO RIIHUWDGLPRQHWD VWDWXQLWHQVHQRQKDDOFXQFRQWHQXWRLQIRUPDWLYRSHUO LQIOD]LRQHIXWXUDGHJOL6WDWL8QLWLFRPH HYLGHQ]LDWRQHOODVHFRQGDULJDGLRJQLSDQQHOORQHOODTXDOHL06)(VUHODWLYLVRQRVXSHULRULD XQR FRQ OಬXQLFD LQVLJQLILFDQWH
(40) HFFH]LRQH GHO &3, D RUL]]RQWL/D OLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH DO FRQWUDULRKDXQIRUWHSRWHUHSUHGLWWLYRPDUJLQDOHSHUO LQIOD]LRQHOHSUHYLVLRQLSURGRWWHVRQR PROWR SL» SUHFLVH ULVSHWWR DOOH SUHYLVLRQL GHO PRGHOOR DXWRUHJUHVVLYR SHU WXWWL JOL RUL]]RQWL ROWUHXQDQQR/ XOWLPDULJDGLRJQLSDQQHOORSUHVHQWHLQ7DEHOODPRVWUDLULVXOWDWLGLXQD PLVXUD DOWHUQDWLYD GL OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH ULFDYDWD GDOOಬDQDOLVL GLQDPLFD GHL FRPSRQHQWLSULQFLSDOL SF
(41) , ULVXOWDWL YDOJRQR SHU WXWWH OH PLVXUH GL LQIOD]LRQH H VRQR UREXVWL DQFKH XWLOL]]DQGR LO FDPSLRQHGLVWLPD 8.
(42) . $QDOLVLHGLVFXVVLRQHGHOODUREXVWH]]DGHLULVXOWDWL . 2.3-A. L’informazione della componente globale 6H OD OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH FDWWXUD XQ DXWHQWLFR PHFFDQLVPR LQWHUQD]LRQDOH OH SUHVWD]LRQL GL SUHYLVLRQH RWWHQXWH GD 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 6XULFR QRQ GRYUHEEHUR HVVHUH FROOHJDWHDOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWDGHOODPRQHWDLQXQRVSHFLILFRSDHVHGHO* *OLDXWRULLQGDJDQRTXHVWDLSRWHVLFDOFRODQGRL06)(VUHODWLYLGHLVHWWHFDVLSRVVLELOLDO PRGHOOR$5YLHQHDJJLXQWDODPLVXUDGHOODOLTXLGLW¢JOREDOHFKHHVFOXGHDWXUQRLOWDVVR GLFUHVFLWDGLPRQHWDGLXQDGHOOHHFRQRPLHGHO* /H PLVXUH GL OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH VXOOD EDVH GHL VHWWH JUXSSL GL VHL SDHVL PDQWHQJRQR LO YDQWDJJLR GL SUHYLVLRQH ULVSHWWR DO WDVVR GL FUHVFLWD GHOOD PRQHWD VWDWXQLWHQVH H TXLQGL ULYHODQR FKH LO SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR PDUJLQDOH GHOOD OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOHSHUO LQIOD]LRQHGHJOL6WDWL8QLWLSURYLHQHGDXQDHIIHWWLYDFRPSRQHQWHJOREDOH /H SUHYLVLRQL VXOOD EDVH GHOOD OLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH VRQR DQFKH PROWR SL» DFFXUDWH GHOOH SUHYLVLRQLVXOODEDVHGLXQDPLVXUDGHOO LQIOD]LRQHDOLYHOORPRQGLDOH/ LQIOD]LRQHJOREDOH ªFRVWUXLWDFRPHPHGLDVHPSOLFHGHLWDVVLGLLQIOD]LRQHGHLSDHVLDSSDUWHQHQWLDO* /H FRQFOXVLRQL GHL GXH HFRQRPLVWL QRQ YDULDQR QHSSXUH DXPHQWDQGR LO PRGHOOR GL OLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH FRQ OD ORJGLIIHUHQ]D GHO 7UDGH :HLJKWHG 86 GROODU ,QGH[ EDVDWR VXO WDVVR GL FDPELR QRPLQDOH DQ]L LQ DOFXQH RFFDVLRQL YLHQH DGGLULWWXUD PLJOLRUDWD OಬDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLG. 2.3-B. Trasformazioni alternative dell’indice di prezzo 4XDQGRJOL RELHWWLYL VRQRL PRYLPHQWL GL EUHYH SHULRGR OಬHFRQRPHWULFR SX´ WURYDUH SL» FRQYHQLHQWH SUHYHGHUH LO FDPELDPHQWR GHO WDVVR G LQIOD]LRQH ˭ െ ˭ FRQ K FKH UDSSUHVHQWD JOL RUL]]RQWL GL SUHYLVLRQH $QDOLVL GHJOL DXWRUL ULYHODQR FKH Q« OD OLTXLGLW¢. LQWHUQD Q« OD OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH KDQQR XQ SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR PDUJLQDOH SHU L FDPELDPHQWLGಬLQIOD]LRQHQHJOL6WDWL8QLWL 8OWHULRULFRQWUROOLGLVROLGLW¢SRUWDQR'ಬ$JRVWLQRH6XULFRDVRVWLWXLUHODFUHVFLWDGLPRQHWD QHOOಬHTXD]LRQHGLSUHYLVLRQHFRQLFDPELDPHQWLQHOODFUHVFLWDGLGHQDURHFRQODFUHVFLWD GLPRQHWDPHQRLVROGLGLLQIOD]LRQH/HGXHQXRYHHVSOLFDWLYHKDQQRDQFKHಬHVVHVFDUVR SRWHUHSUHGLWWLYRQHLFRQIURQWLGHLPXWDPHQWLGಬLQIOD]LRQH86$ 9.
(43) 2.3-C. Modelli alternativi per la previsione dell’inflazione /D FXUYD GL 3KLOOLSV ª XQ WDVVHOOR LPSRUWDQWH QHOOD PRGHUQD WHRULD PDFURHFRQRPLFD 6RWWROLQHDQGR OD FRUUHOD]LRQH HVLVWHQWH WUD OಬLQIOD]LRQH H OD YHUD H SURSULD DWWLYLW¢ HFRQRPLFDJOLDXWRULSUHYHGRQRLOWDVVRGLLQIOD]LRQHFRPH ˭ȁ ൌ ˞Ͷ ˟Ͷ ή ሺሻ˭ ɀͶ ή ሺሻ˩ ˢͶǡ
(44) . GRYHߤ ݐUDSSUHVHQWDLOWDVVRGLFUHVFLWDGHOODGLVRFFXSD]LRQH. 8QD YLVLRQH SL» DJQRVWLFD VXO SURFHVVR GL LQIOD]LRQH ª VWDWD SURSRVWD GD 6WRFN H :DWVRQ
(45) GLPRVWUDQGR FKH XQ PRGHOOR ,0$
(46) IRUQLVFH XQD GHVFUL]LRQH UDJLRQHYROH VXOOಬDQGDPHQWR GHOOಬLQIOD]LRQH VWDWXQLWHQVH 6HFRQGR LO PRGHOOR ,0$
(47) OಬLQIOD]LRQHHYROYHFRPH
(48) . ˭ െ ˭ ൌ ሺͳ െ ˥ሻ . GRYH˥ªSRVLWLYRH ªVHULDOPHQWHLQFRUUHODWRFRQPHGLD]HUR. 6ROR SHU LO PRGHOOR ,0$
(49) WHVWDQR OಬLSRWHVL GL XJXDOH DFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL FRQIURQWDQGRORFRQLOPRGHOOR$5WUDPLWHLOWHVWSURSRVWRGD'LHEROGH0DULDQR
(50) PHQWUHSHUODFXUYDGL3KLOOLSVXWLOL]]DQRLOWHVWSUHVHQWDWRGD&ODUNH0F&UDFNHQ
(51) SHUPRGHOOLQLGLILFDWL , ULVXOWDWL LQ WDEHOOD PRVWUDQR SHUIRUPDQFH SUHGLWWLYH ORQWDQH GDOOH SUHVWD]LRQL DQDOL]]DWHLQ7DEHOODVXOODEDVHGHOODOLTXLGLW¢JOREDOH . . Tabella 2.2: MSFEs – 1990:1 2006:2 - modelli alternativi 1. 4. 6. 8. 0,95 1.13 1.04 1.06 1.19°° PCE DEFLATOR. 0,85. 0,87. 0,85. 0,84. Phillips curve IMA(1,1). 1,01 1.26°°°. 1,03 1.26°°°. 1,04 1.29°°°. 1,02 1.31°°°. AR. 0,91. 0,64. 0,65. 0,74. 0,84. 0,98. Phillips curve IMA(1,1). 1,01 0.96* 0,91 0,93°° PIL DEFLATOR. 1,03 0,92°°. 1,06 0,88°°. 1,10 0,84°°. 1,09 0.76°°. orizzonte. 10. 12. CPI AR. 2,38. AR. 0,53 0,30 0,37 0,43 0,49 0,54 Phillips curve 1,12 0,96 1,06 1,12 1,15 1,13 IMA(1,1) 1.19 1.09° 1.06° 1.02° 1.00 0,92 --------------------------------------------------------------Nota: vedi Tabella 2.1. I cerchietti indicano il rifiuto dell’ipotesi nulla di uguale accuratezza delle previsioni con il modello auto regressivo tramite il test di Diebold e Mariano ai livelli di significatività del 1%(ooo), 5% (oo), 10% (o).. 10.
(52) 2.3-D. Break strutturali e selezione del campione 1HOOD ORUR DQDOLVL VXOOD JUDQGH LQIOD]LRQH ಯ'R :H 5HDOO\ .QRZ WKDW 2LO &DXVHG WKH *UHDW 6WDJIODWLRQ" $ 0RQHWDU\ $OWHUQDWLYHರ %DUVN\ H .LOLDQ VRVWHQJRQR FKH OಬHVSDQVLRQHPRQHWDULDGHLSULPLDQQLಬQRQRVWDQWHODVXDRULJLQHQHJOL6WDWL8QLWLIX DPSOLILFDWD GDO IXQ]LRQDPHQWR GHO VLVWHPD PRQHWDULR LQWHUQD]LRQDOH H QRWDQR FRPH DXPHQWLGLOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOHVLDQRVWDWLVHJXLWLGDLPSHQQDWHLQIOD]LRQLVWLFKHVLD QHJOL86$FKHQHOPRQGR 6RWWROLQHDQGR OD SUHVHQ]D GL XQ EUHDN VWUXWWXUDOH QHO 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 6XULFR DQDOL]]DQROHSUHYLVLRQLDQFKHSHULOSHULRGRXWLOL]]DQGRFRPHFDPSLRQH GLVWLPDLOSHULRGR ,OSHULRGRSULPDGHOªDVVRFLDWRFRQXQEDVVRJUDGRGLVWDELOLW¢PDFURHFRQRPLFD QRQFK« FRQ XQPLQRU JUDGR GL LQWHJUD]LRQH QHLPHUFDWL EHL EHQL H GHL FDSLWDOL 4XHVWD PLQRUH LQWHJUD]LRQH LQ WHUPLQL GL VFDPEL FRPPHUFLDOL H IOXVVL GL FDSLWDOH UHQGRQR OಬLPSDWWRGHOODOLTXLGLW¢JOREDOHSL»OLPLWDWRVXOOಬLQIOD]LRQHLQWHUQDSUH . Tabella 2.3: Relative MSFEs – 1970:1 1984:4 orizzonte. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. CPI AR. 6,73. 8,73. 9,49. 9,27. 8,63. US money growth Global liquidity Global liquidity pc. 1,02 1,07 1,02 0,98 1,03 1,02 PCE DEFLATOR. 7,40. 1,04 0,92* 0,96. 0,95 0,86** 0,87*. 0,89* 0,84** 0,82**. 0,85** 0,87* 0,85*. AR. 2,38. 4,80. 5,09. 5,01. 4,75. US money growth Global liquidity Global liquidity pc. 1,04 1,07 1,04 0,99 1,05 1,04 PIL DEFLATOR. 1,03 0,97 1,00. 0,98 0,91* 0,93*. 0,90* 0,85** 0,84*. 0,89* 0,88* 0,87*. AR. 2,92. 4,23. 4,13. 4,02. 3,52. 4,10. 3,90. US money growth 1,11 1,21 1,09 1,00 0,98 1,03 Global liquidity 1,05 1,09 0,92 0,70** 0,62*** 0,74** Global liquidity pc 1,05 1,21 1,04 0,86* 0,74** 0,81* ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: vedi Tabella 2.1. 11.
(53) 1HOODWDEHOODLOGHIODWRUHGHO3,/ULYHODFKHODOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOHKDXQSRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR PDUJLQDOH PDJJLRUH DOOD FUHVFLWD PRQHWDULD GHJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL GDOOಬRWWDYR RUL]]RQWH LQ SRL PHQWUH SHU OH DOWUH PLVXUH GL LQIOD]LRQH OH SUHYLVLRQL VXOOD EDVH GL OLTXLGLW¢LQWHUQDHJOREDOHDSSDLRQRXJXDOPHQWHDFFXUDWH6RORDWULPHVWULLQDYDQWLOH SUHYLVLRQLVXOODEDVHGLOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOHVRQRSL»DFFXUDWH 2.3-E. Regola o eccezione , GXH HFRQRPLVWL SURYDQR LQILQH D YDOXWDUH VH L ULVXOWDWL RWWHQXWL SHU OಬLQIOD]LRQH VWDWXQLWHQVHVRQRODUHJRODROಬHFFH]LRQHDOOಬLQWHUQRGHOOHHFRQRPLHGHO*3HUJOLDOWUL SDHVL WURYDQR FKH OD OLTXLGLW¢ D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH KD XQ SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR SHU O LQIOD]LRQH LQWHUQD VROR TXDQGR DQFKH OD OLTXLGLW¢ VXO PHUFDWR LQWHUQR KD XQ SRWHUH SUHGLWWLYR 4XHVWDGLIIHUHQ]DªGRYXWDDFRQGL]LRQLIDYRUHYROLVLDSHUJOLVFDPELGLEHQLFKHSHUJOL DIIOXVVL GL FDSLWDOH H DOOD GLQDPLFD GHO WDVVR VL FDPELR FKH UHQGRQR LO PHFFDQLVPR GL WUDVPLVVLRQHGHJOLVKRFNLQWHUQD]LRQDOLVXOOಬHFRQRPLDGHJOL6WDWL8QLWLGLYHUVRGDTXHOOR GHOOHDOWUHHFRQRPLHGHO* . 12.
(54) 'DWLHPRGHOOLSUHYLVLYL 1HOOD WHRULD TXDQWLWDWLYD GHOOD PRQHWD VL GHILQLVFH OಬHTXD]LRQH GಬHTXLOLEULR GHO PHUFDWR PRQHWDULR WUD RIIHUWD H GRPDQGD GL PRQHWD > 06 / < L
(55) @ QRWD FRPH /0 FKH LQGLFD TXDOHGHYHHVVHUHLOWDVVRGLLQWHUHVVH>L@SHULQGXUUHJOLLQGLYLGXLDGHWHQHUHODTXDQWLW¢GL PRQHWDFKHOD%DQFD&HQWUDOHRIIUH>FLRª06@ /D GRPDQGD GL PRQHWD >/ <L
(56) @ GLSHQGH GDO UHGGLWR QRPLQDOH ><@ HG ª LQYHUVDPHQWH FRUUHODWD DO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH FKH HVVHQGR GHWHUPLQDWR GDOOಬXJXDJOLDQ]D WUD RIIHUWD H GRPDQGDGLPRQHWDSX´TXLQGLHVVHUHLQIOXHQ]DWRGDYDULD]LRQLGHOOಬRIIHUWDGLGHQDURGD SDUWHGHOOD%DQFD&HQWUDOH 1HOಯ7UDWWDWRVXOIXQ]LRQDPHQWRGHOOಬ8QLRQHHXURSHDರYLHQHVRWWROLQHDWRFRPHLQYLUW»GHO VXR PRQRSROLR OD EDQFD FHQWUDOH ª LQ JUDGR GL JHVWLUH OD VLWXD]LRQH GL OLTXLGLW¢ QHO PHUFDWRPRQHWDULRLQIOXHQ]DQGRLWDVVLGLLQWHUHVVH$QFKH:RRGIRUG
(57) GLVFXWHHG DQDOL]]D DPSOLDPHQWH LO UXROR GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH QHOOD SROLWLFD PRQHWDULD SHU OD GHWHUPLQD]LRQH GHO OLYHOOR GHL SUH]]L VRWWROLQHDQGR FRPH OD GHILQL]LRQH GL WDOH WDVVR LQIOXLVFHVXOOLYHOORGHOOಬDJJUHJDWRPRQHWDULRHYLFHYHUVD 4XDQGRLWDVVLGLLQWHUHVVHVRQRHOHYDWLGLYHQWDSL»FRVWRVRSUHQGHUHLQSUHVWLWRGHQDUR HG LO ULVSDUPLR GLYHQWD XQಬRS]LRQH LQWHUHVVDQWH9LFHYHUVD TXDQGR L WDVVL GL LQWHUHVVH VRQR EDVVL DXPHQWD OD FRQYHQLHQ]D GHL SUHVWLWL FRQ XQ FRQVHJXHQWH DXPHQWR GHOOD OLTXLGLW¢QD]LRQDOH ,OWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHªTXLQGLXQSHUQRLPSRUWDQWHSHUOಬHTXLOLEULRPRQHWDULR 'DXQODWRODFUHVFLWDGHOOಬRIIHUWDGLPRQHWDLQIOXHQ]DLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHFKHULSRUWDFRV® OD GRPDQGD GL PRQHWD QHO SXQWR GಬHTXLOLEULR PHQWUH VH DYYHQJRQR FDPELDPHQWL QHOOD TXDQWLW¢GHVLGHUDWDGLPRQHWDDFDXVDGLYDULD]LRQLGHOUHGGLWRQRPLQDOHPRGLILFDQGRLO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH OD %DQFD &HQWUDOH SX´ ULSRUWDUH OD TXDQWLW¢ RIIHUWD GL PRQHWD YHUVR OD VLWXD]LRQHGಬHTXLOLEULR &DPELDPHQWL GHOOಬRIIHUWD GL PRQHWD IDQQR YDULDUH OಬLQIOD]LRQH DWWHVD FKH D VXD YROWD LQIOXHQ]DLOWDVVRGLಬLQWHUHVVHDWWUDYHUVROಬHIIHWWRGL)LVKHU>L U( ˭
(58) @ 'DWD OD VWUHWWD FRUUHOD]LRQH WUD RIIHUWD GL PRQHWD H WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH SHU YHULILFDUH HPSLULFDPHQWH OಬDLXWR GDWR GDOOD OLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH DOOH SUHYLVLRQL GಬLQIOD]LRQH SRVVR VRVWLWXLUH LO WDVVR GL FUHVFLWD GHOOD PRQHWD HG XWLOL]]DUH FRPH LQGLFDWRUH GHOODVLWXD]LRQH PRQHWDULDLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVH /D VRVWLWX]LRQH GHOOD YDULDELOH HVSOLFDWLYD QDVFH DQFKH GDOOಬHVWUHPD GLIILFROW¢ GL UHSHULPHQWRGHLGDWLUHODWLYLDJOLDJJUHJDWLPRQHWDULQD]LRQDOL 2UD JLXVWLILFDWD OD VRVWLWX]LRQH GHOOಬDJJUHJDWR PRQHWDULR FRQ LO WDVVR GಫLQWHUHVVH PL FRQFHQWUR VXOOಬ RELHWWLYR SULQFLSDOH GL TXHVWR ODYRUR GLPRVWUDUH VH OಬLQIRUPD]LRQH 13.
(59) FRQWHQXWDQHOODOLTXLGLW¢JOREDOHPLJOLRUDOಬDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLGಬLQIOD]LRQHSHUJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL FRPH PRVWUDWR GD 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 6XULFR H YHULILFDUH VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH VH LO PRGHOORJOREDOHSURGXFHULVXOWDWLVLPLOLDQFKHSHUOಬ,QJKLOWHUUD $WDOILQHKRUHSHULWROHVHULHVWRULFKHGHLWDVVLGಬLQWHUHVVHDEUHYHHDOXQJRWHUPLQHSHU OHHFRQRPLHGHO*HOHVHULHGHJOLLQGLFLGHLSUH]]LSHUJOL6WDWL8QLWLHOD*UDQ%UHWDJQD GDOGDWDEDVHGHO2(&' 2UJDQLVDWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW
(60) SHU FRQIURQWDUH OD SUHFLVLRQH GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL GಬLQIOD]LRQH WUD WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH D EUHYH H D OXQJR WHUPLQH
(61) FDOFRODWR FRPH PHGLD VHPSOLFH GHL WDVVL GಬLQWHUHVVH GHOOH HFRQRPLH GHO * H LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH GRPHVWLFR D EUHYH H D OXQJR WHUPLQH
(62) SHU OಬHFRQRPLDVWDWXQLWHQVHHLQJOHVH /H VHULH GHL WDVVL GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH D EUHYH H D OXQJR WHUPLQH VRQR UDSSUHVHQWDWH LQVLHPH FRQ OH WUH PLVXUH GಬLQIOD]LRQH GRPHVWLFD LQ )LJXUDB SHU JOL 6WDWL 8QLWL HG Q )LJXUDBSHUOಬ,QJKLOWHUUD *OLLQGLFLGHLSUH]]LXWLOL]]DWLVRQRLO&RQVXPHU3ULFH,QGH[ &3,
(63) LO3HUVRQDO&RQVXPSWLRQ ([SHQGLWXUH 'HIODWRU 3&('
(64) H LO *'3 GHIODWRU *'3'
(65) &RQVLGHUDQGR TXLQGL TXHVWL WUH LQGLFLSHURJQXQRKRSUHYLVWRLOWDVVRGಬLQIOD]LRQHGHOO KWULPHVWUHDQQXDOL]]DWR ݄ ߨݐ݄ ൌ ሾ݈ݐ݄ܲ݃ െ ݈ ݐܲ݃ሿ ή. . ͶͲͲ
(66) ݄. XWLOL]]DQGRGXHGLYHUVHVSHFLILFD]LRQLSHULOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHDEUHYHWHUPLQH
(67). ݅݊ ݊ݎ݁ݐሺܶܤሻ. ݄ ߨݐ݄ȁݐ ൌ ߙͳ ߚͳ ή ሺܮሻߨ ݐ ߛͳ ή ሺܮሻ݅ݐ. ߝͳǡݐ݄ . $O WHUPLQH DXWRUHJUHVVLYR EDVDWD VXO ULWDUGR GHOOD SULPD GLIIHUHQ]D GL SUH]]RªDJJLXQWRLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHLQWHUQR .
(68). ݈݃ ݈ܾ݁ܽሺܶܤሻ. ݄ ߨݐ݄ȁݐ ൌ ߙʹ ߚʹ ή ሺܮሻߨ ݐ ߛʹ ή ሺܮሻ݅ݐ. ߝʹǡݐ݄ . $OWHUPLQHDXWRUHJUHVVLYRªDJJLXQWRLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOH (GXHVSHFLILFD]LRQLSHULOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHDOXQJRWHUPLQH
(69). ݄ ߨݐ݄ȁݐ ൌ ߙ͵ ߚ͵ ή ሺܮሻߨ ݐ ߛ͵ ή ሺܮሻ݅݊ݎ݁ݐ݊݅ݐ. ሺܶܮሻ. ߝͳǡݐ݄ . ݈݃ ݈ܾ݁ܽሺܶܮሻ. ߝͶǡݐ݄ . $O WHUPLQH DXWRUHJUHVVLYR EDVDWD VXO ULWDUGR GHOOD SULPD GLIIHUHQ]D GL SUH]]RªDJJLXQWRLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHLQWHUQR .
(70). ݄ ߨݐ݄ȁݐ ൌ ߙͶ ߚͶ ή ሺܮሻߨ ݐ ߛͶ ή ሺܮሻ݅ݐ. $OWHUPLQHDXWRUHJUHVVLYRªDJJLXQWRLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOH 14.
(71) Prime differenze del livello dei prezzi. Quarte differenze del livello dei prezzi. Ottave differenze del livello dei prezzi. Dodicesime differenze del livello dei prezzi. Figura_2 : grafici del tasso d’interesse globale a breve (ST) e a lungo termine (LT) con diverse log differenze del livello dei prezzi (A per CPI , B per PFCE e C per deflatore del PIL) per l’economia statunitense.. 15.
(72) Prime differenze del livello dei prezzi. Quarte differenze del livello dei prezzi. Ottave differenze del livello dei prezzi. Dodicesime differenze del livello dei prezzi. Figura_3 : grafici del tasso d’interesse globale a breve (ST) e a lungo termine (LT) con diverse log differenze del livello dei prezzi (A per CPI , B per PFCE e C per deflatore del PIL) per economia inglese.. . 16.
(73) /HVWLPHVRQRRWWHQXWHWUDPLWHLOPHWRGRGHL0LQLPL4XDGUDWL2UGLQDULHYLVWDODSUHVHQ]D GL DXWRFRUUHOD]LRQH HG HWHURVFKHGDVWLFLW¢ GHL UHVLGXL FKH DXPHQWD DO FUHVFHUH GHJOL RUL]]RQWL GL SUHYLVLRQH XWLOL]]R OD FRUUH]LRQH GHOOD PDWULFH GL YDULDQ]DFRYDULDQ]D SURSRVWDGD1HZH\:HVWSHUPDQWHQHUHOಬHIILFLHQ]DGHOOHVWLPH /D PLD DQDOLVL IRUPDOH XWLOL]]D OD VWHVVD PHWULFD GL FRQIURQWR GHILQLWD GD 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 6XULFR SHU VWXGLDUH OH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH (VHJXR TXLQGL XQD SUHYLVLRQH IXRUL GDO FDPSLRQHGLVWLPDSHUFLDVFXQDVSHFLILFD]LRQHDGRJQLRUL]]RQWHWHPSRUDOHK HWULPHVWUL ,OPLRFDPSLRQHGLVWLPDLQL]LDQHOSULPRWULPHVWUHGHOHWHUPLQDQHOTXDUWRWULPHVWUH GHOPHQWUHOHSUHYLVLRQLIXRULGDOFDPSLRQHGLVWLPDKDQQRLQL]LRQHOSULPRWULPHVWUH GHOHILQLVFRQRQHOVHFRQGRWULPHVWUHGHO 3HU YDOXWDUH O DFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL DGRWWR OR VWHVVR SDUDPHWUR XWLOL]]DWR GD 'ಬ$JRVWLQRH6XULFRSRVWRSHU´VRWWRUDGLFHTXDGUDWDLO5RRW0HDQ6TXDUH(UURU Ͳͳ ሺǡ ǡ ሻ. ͳ. ͳ ൌඩ ሺɎ ෝǡȁ െ Ɏ ሻʹ ͳ െ Ͳ ͳ ൌ Ͳ. 2VVLDODUDGLFHGHOOಬHUURUHTXDGUDWLFRPHGLRWUDLOWHPSRWHW GRYHืWืW K
(74) SHUODYDULDELOHLDOOಬRUL]RQWHKXWLOL]]DQGRLOPRGHOORP 17.
(75) &RPSRQHQWH JOREDOH 9V FRPSRQHQWH LQWHUQD LQIOD]LRQH VWDWXQLWHQVH ,Q TXHVWR SDUDJUDIR PL RFFXSR GL YDOXWDUH OಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL GHL TXDWWUR PRGHOOL
(76) ದ
(77) QHO FDVR VWDWXQLWHQVH FRQIURQWDQGR L 506(V SURGRWWL GDOOH VSHFLILFD]LRQL ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH GHL WDVVL GL EUHYH H OXQJR SHULRGR QHO FDVR LQWHUQR H JOREDOH &RPH WHVW SHU LO FRQIURQWR GHOOಬDFFXUDWH]]D SUHGLWWLYD XWLOL]]R OD YHUVLRQH SURSRVWD GD 'LHEROGH0DULDQR
(78) SHUPRGHOOLQRQDQQLGDWL,ULVXOWDWLVRQRULSRUWDWLLQ7DEHOOD HLQ7DEHOODVXOODEDVHGLWUHPLVXUHDOWHUQDWLYHGಬLQIOD]LRQH . Tabella 4.1: RMSEs – 1990:1 2006:2 86$(campione di stima 1980:1 1989:4). 2UL]]RQWL. &3,. . . . . . . 86$VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH . . . . . . 86$VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rr. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . 86$VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: per il confronto dell’accuratezza predittiva utilizzo il test proposto da Diebold e Mariano (1995) per modelli non annidati. I cerchietti indicano che il MSFE del modello con il tasso d’interesse globale è statisticamente differente (e più accurato) rispetto al MSFE del modello con il tasso d’interesse interno ai livelli di significatività del 1% (°°°), 5% (°°) e 10% (°).. 2VVHUYDQGRLULVXOWDWLRWWHQXWLLQ7DEHOODVLQRWDFRPHLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHGL EUHYH SHULRGR QRQ DXPHQWD OಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL GL LQIOD]LRQH ULVSHWWR DO WDVVR LQWHUQRDGHFFH]LRQHGHOSULPRWULPHVWUHLQDYDQWLSHULO&3,HSHULO3)&(. 1. Vedi Appendice_A. 18.
(79) Tabella 4.2: RMSEs – 1990:1 2006:2 86$(campione di stima 1980:1 1989:4). 2UL]]RQWL. &3,. . . . . . . 86$ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . rrr rrr rrr rrr rrr. . . . . . . . 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH . . . . . . 86$ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr rrr. rrr. rrr. rrr . . . . . . . . PIL deflator. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. USA long-term interest rate. 0,76. 7. 16,23. 27,45. 36,07. 49,93. Global long-term interest rate. 0,71°°°. 5,74°°°. 15,48°°°. 30,31. 42,17. 67,09. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1 $O FRQWUDULR GDOOD 7DEHOOD HPHUJRQR LQYHFH ULVXOWDWL LQWHUHVVDQWL LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOHGLOXQJRSHULRGRKDXQFRQWHQXWRLQIRUPDWLYRPDJJLRUHSHUOಬLQIOD]LRQHIXWXUDGHJOL 6WDWL8QLWLDGHFFH]LRQHGHOGHIODWRUHGHO3,/DSDUWLUHGDWULPHVWULLQDYDQWLDO3)&(D WULPHVWULHDO&3,DWULPHVWUHLQDYDQWL. 19.
(80) $QDOLVLGHOODVWDELOLW¢ 3HUWXWWLJOLRUL]]RQWLWHPSRUDOLXWLOL]]DWLKRYHULILFDWRODVWDELOLW¢SHULOFDPSLRQHGLVWLPD GHL PRGHOOL GL SUHYLVLRQH
(81)
(82) WUDPLWH OD VWLPD GHL FRHIILFLHQWL ULFRUVLYLODVWLPDGHLUHVLGXLULFRUVLYLHGLWHVWGL&XVXP &XVXPWHVWSHUODVWDELOLW¢GHL SDUDPHWULH&XVXPRIVTXDUHWHVWSHUODVWDELOLW¢GHOODYDULDQ]D
(83) 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD L FRHIILFLHQWL OD VWLPD ULFRUVLYD ULPDQH DOOಬLQWHUQR GHJOL LQWHUYDOOL GL FRQILGHQ]DPHQWUHLUHVLGXLULFRUVLYLIXRULHVFRQRGDOOHEDQGHGLFRQILGHQ]DVHJQDODQGROD SUHVHQ]D GL LQVWDELOLW¢ FKH D VHFRQGD GHO PRGHOOR H GHJOL RUL]]RQWL WHPSRUDOL GL SUHYLVLRQHLQGLFDXQSXQWRGLURWWXUDFKHYDULDQHOSHULRGR ,OWHVWGL&XVXPDSSRJJLDOಬLSRWHVLGLVWDELOLW¢GHLSDUDPHWULDGRJQLPRGHOORHRUL]]RQWH WHPSRUDOHPHQWUHLO&XVXPRIVTXDUHWHVWHYLGHQ]LDLQVWDELOLW¢LQYDULDQ]D8VFHQGRGDOOH EDQGHGLFRQILGHQ]DQHOSHULRGRದVRSUDWWXWWRSHULPRGHOOLGDRUL]]RQWLLQ SRL LO &XVXP RI VTXDUH WHVW HYLGHQ]LD TXLQGL TXDQWR HPHUVR GDOOಬDQDOLVL GHL UHVLGXL ULFRUVLYL $QFKH LO &KRZ %UHDNSRLQW 7HVW ULILXWD OಬLSRWHVL QXOOD GL VWDELOLW¢ VWUXWWXUDOH DO OLYHOOR GL VLJQLILFDWLYLW¢ GHO SHU OH GDWH FRPSUHVH QHO SHULRGR ದ H VRWWROLQHD OD SUHVHQ]DGLXQSXQWRGLURWWXUDFRPHVXJJHULWRQHOOಬLQGDJLQHGL'ಬ$JRVWLQRH6XULFRQHO SDUDJUDIR' . 1XRYDVHOH]LRQHGHOFDPSLRQH $OOD OXFH GHOOಬDQDOLVL VYROWD DO SXQWR SUHFHGHQWHSURYR D PRGLILFDUH LO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD VHOH]LRQDQGR LO SHULRGR FKH YD GDO SULPR WULPHVWUH DO TXDUWR WULPHVWUH GHO PHQWUH SHU OH SUHYLVLRQL IXRUL GDO FDPSLRQH KDQQR LQL]LR LO SULPR WULPHVWUH GHO H ILQLVFRQRQHOTXDUWRWULPHVWUHGHO ,ULVXOWDWLVRQRULSRUWDWLLQ7DEHOODH 20.
(84) Tabella 4.3: RMSEs - 2000:1 2009:4 86$( campione di stima 1988:1 1999:4 ). 2UL]]RQWL. &3,. . . . . . . 86$VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH. . . . . . . 86$VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . 86$VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1. Tabella 4.4: RMSEs – 2000:1 2009:4 86$( campione di stima 1988:1 1999:4 ). 2UL]]RQWL. &3,. . . . . . . 86$ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr. rrr. rrr. rrr. rrr. r. . . . . . . . 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH. . . . . . . 86$ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr. rrr. rrr. rrr. rrr. rrr. . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . 86$ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . *OREDOORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr. rr. rrr. rrr. rrr. . -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1 . 21.
(85) 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD OಬLQIRUPD]LRQH FRQWHQXWD QHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH GL EUHYH SHULRGR GDOOD 7DEHOOD QRQ ULVXOWDQR FDPELDPHQWL VLJQLILFDWLYL ULVSHWWR DL ULVXOWDWL LOOXVWUDWL LQ 7DEHOOD VRWWROLQHDQGR DQFRUD XQD YROWD LO PDJJLRU SRWHUH SUHYLVLYR GHOOD FRPSRQHQWH LQWHUQD 9HGLDPR SHU´ FRPH LO FDPELDPHQWR GHO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD KD SURGRWWR 506(V GHFLVDPHQWH LQIHULRUL D TXHOOL LQ 7DEHOOD PRVWUDQGR XQ PLJOLRU DGDWWDPHQWRGHLPRGHOOLSUHGLWWLYLDOODVLWXD]LRQHUHDOH $QFKH LQ 7DEHOOD VL QRWD XQD YLVLELOH ULGX]LRQH GHL 506(V D FRQIURQWR FRQ L YDORUL ULSRUWDWL LQ 7DEHOOD ROWUH DG HVVHUH SL» HYLGHQWH LO SRWHUH SUHYLVLYR GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHGLOXQJRSHULRGRDOFRQIURQWRGLTXHOORLQWHUQRDTXDOXQTXHRUL]]RQWH WHPSRUDOH &RQ LO QXRYR FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD OಬDQDOLVL SHU L PRGHOOL SUHYLVLYL
(86) ದ
(87) ULYHOD TXDOFKH VLQWRPR GL LQVWDELOLW¢ GHL SDUDPHWUL WUDPLWH LO &XVXP WHVW VRSUDWWXWWR SHU L PRGHOOL SUHYLVLYL GD RUL]]RQWL WHPSRUDOL LQ SRL PHQWUH OD VWLPD ULFRUVLYD GHL SDUDPHWUL QRQSUHVHQWDSUREOHPL ,O &XVXP RI VTXDUH WHVW ULYHOD LQYHFH XQD FRQVLGHUHYROH ULGX]LRQH GHOOಬLQVWDELOLW¢ LQ YDULDQ]D ULVSHWWR DO FDPSLRQH HYLGHQWH DQFKH GDO JUDILFR GHL UHVLGXL ULFRUVLYLFKHULGXFRQRODYDULDELOLW¢DOOಬLQWHUQRGHJOLLQWHUYDOOLGLFRQILGHQ]D 5LPDQHFRPXQTXHHYLGHQWHXQFDPELDPHQWRWUDODSULPDHODVHFRQGDPHW¢GHJOLDQQL ಬVRWWROLQHDWRDQFKHGDOULILXWRGHOOಬLSRWHVLQXOODFRQLOWHVWGL&KRZSHUOಬDQQRFKH SX´HVVHUHGRYXWRDOOಬDQQXQFLRGHOODIXWXUDQDVFLWDGLXQDPRQHWDXQLFD HXURSHDHDOOD JXHUUDGHL%DOFDQLFKHKDYLVWROಬLPSHJQRGHOOಬ2QXHGHOOD1DWRQHOSHULRGRFRPSUHVRWUD LOH 8WLOL]]DQGRSHU´FRPHFDPSLRQHGLVWLPDLOSHULRGRWHPSRUDOHSRVWDVVRFLDWRDGXQ SL»DOWRJUDGRGLLQWHJUD]LRQHGHLPHUFDWLQD]LRQDOLFKHIDYRULVFHJOLVFDPELFRPPHUFLDOL HLIOXVVLGLFDSLWDOLOಬLPSDWWRGHOODFRPSRQHQWHJOREDOHULVXOWDPROWRSL»VLJQLILFDWLYRSHUOH SUHYLVLRQLLQIOD]LRQLVWLFKHGHJOL6WDWL8QLWL . 22.
(88) &RPSRQHQWH JOREDOH 9V FRPSRQHQWH LQWHUQD LQIOD]LRQH LQJOHVH 1HOSDUDJUDIRSUHFHGHQWHKRDQDOL]]DWRL506(VSURGRWWLGDLTXDWWURPRGHOOL
(89) ದ
(90) QHO SUHYHGHUH OಬLQIOD]LRQH GHJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL RUD HVHJXR LQYHFH OD VWHVVD SURFHGXUD DOODUJDQGR OD VSHULPHQWD]LRQH GHO PRGHOOR JOREDOH DOOH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH SHU OಬHFRQRPLDLQJOHVH. Tabella 5.1: RMSEs - 1990:1 2006:2 8.( campione di stima 1980:1 1989:4 ). 2UL]]RQWL. 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH. . . . . . . 8.VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . 8.VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH rrr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1 $QFKH SHU OಬLQIOD]LRQH LQJOHVH QRWLDPR FKH OHSUHYLVLRQL VXOODEDVHGHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH LQWHUQR GL EUHYH SHULRGR VRQR SL» DFFXUDWH , ULVXOWDWL LQ 7DEHOOD VRWWROLQHDQR FRPH OಬLQIRUPD]LRQHSUHVHQWHQHOODFRPSRQHQWHJOREDOHGLEUHYHSHULRGRVLDPHQRVLJQLILFDWLYD GL TXHOOD DSSRUWDWD GDOOD FRPSRQHQWH LQWHUQD DG HFFH]LRQH GHO GHIODWRUH GHO 3,/ D WULPHVWULLQDYDQWL . Tabella 5.2: RMSEs - 1990:1 2006:2 8.( campione di stima 1980:1 1989:4 ). 2UL]]RQWL. 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH. . . . . . . 8.ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. rrr . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . 8.ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/ORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH rrr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1 2. Per quanto riguarda l’economia inglese, la serie dell’indice dei prezzi al consumo (CPI) inizia nel primo trimestre del 1988, perché in precedenza per misurare l’indice dei prezzi in Gran Bretagna veniva usato solo il Retail Price Index (RPI). Da quell’anno gli anglosassoni si sono adeguati al sistema internazionale, affiancando all’utilizzo del RPI anche l’uso del CPI per misurare il livello dei prezzi. Non viene quindi preso in considerazione per il campione di stima 1980:1 1989:4.. 23.
(91) $ GLIIHUHQ]D GL TXDQWR RVVHUYDWR SHU JOL 6WDWL 8QLWL LQ 7DEHOOD OಬDQDOLVL IRUPDOH LOOXVWUDWD LQ 7DEHOOD PRVWUD FKH LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH LQWHUQR GL OXQJR SHULRGR KD XQ FRQWHQXWRLQIRUPDWLYRPDJJLRUHULVSHWWRDOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHGLOXQJRSHULRGRSHU OHSUHYLVLRQLGಬLQIOD]LRQHGHOOಬ,QJKLOWHUUDDGHFFH]LRQHGHOSULPRWULPHVWUHLQDYDQWL . $QDOLVLGHOODVWDELOLW¢ $QFKHSHULOFDVRLQJOHVHKRYHULILFDWRODVWDELOLW¢SHULOFDPSLRQHGLVWLPD GHLPRGHOOLGLSUHYLVLRQH
(92)
(93) WUDPLWHODVWLPDGHLFRHIILFLHQWLULFRUVLYLODVWLPDGHL UHVLGXLULFRUVLYLHGLWHVWGL&XVXP &XVXPWHVWSHUODVWDELOLW¢GHLSDUDPHWULH&XVXPRI VTXDUHWHVWSHUODVWDELOLW¢GHOODYDULDQ]D
(94) /DVWLPDULFRUVLYDGHLFRHIILFHQWLULPDQHDOOಬLQWHUQRGHJOLLQWHUYDOOLGLFRQILGHQ]DPHQWUHL UHVLGXL ULFRUVLYL IXRULHVFRQR OLPLWDWDPHQWH GDOOH EDQGH GL FRQILGHQ]D VHJQDODQGR FRPXQTXH TXDOFKH SUREOHPD GL LQVWDELOLW¢ VRSUDWWXWWR SHU RUL]]RQWL WHPSRUDOL DOWUH L GXH DQQL ,OWHVWGL&XVXPULILXWDOಬLSRWHVLGLVWDELOLW¢GHLSDUDPHWULSHUWXWWLLPRGHOOLDSDUWLUHGD WULPHVWUL LQ DYDQWL ,O &XVXP RI VTXDUH WHVW HYLGHQ]LD LQYHFH LQVWDELOLW¢ LQ YDULDQ]D VRSUDWWXWWRSHULPRGHOOLGDRUL]]RQWLLQSRL(QWUDPELLWHVWGL&XVXPWHQGRQRDGXVFLUH GDOOHEDQGHGLFRQILGHQ]DQHOSHULRGRದ 7UDPLWH LO &KRZ %UHDNSRLQW 7HVW KR TXLQGL YHULILFDWR OD SUHVHQ]D GL XQ SXQWR GL URWWXUD VWUXWWXUDOHOಬLSRWHVLQXOODGLVWDELOLW¢YLHQHULILXWDWDDOOLYHOORGLVLJQLILFDWLYLW¢GHOSHUOH GDWHFRPSUHVHQHOSHULRGRದ . 1XRYDVHOH]LRQHGHOFDPSLRQH 8WLOL]]DQGR L ULVXOWDWL HPHUVL GDL WHVW HIIHWWXDWL VXO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD LOOXVWUDWL QHO SUHFHGHQWH SDUDJUDIR DSSDUH FKLDUR DQFKH SHU OಬHFRQRPLD LQJOHVH OD SUHVHQ]DGLXQSXQWRGLURWWXUDQHOODVWDELOLW¢PDFURHFRQRPLFDQHOSHULRGRದ 3URYR TXLQGL D FDPELDUH LO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD SHU UHQGHUOR SL» VWDELOH XWLOL]]DQGR LO SHULRGRFRPSUHVRWUDLOSULPRWULPHVWUHGHOHGLOTXDUWRWULPHVWUHGHO,QL]LROH SUHYLVLRQLIXRULGDOFDPSLRQHQHOSULPRWULPHVWUHGHOHOHILQLVFRQHOTXDUWRWULPHVWUH GHO. 24.
(95) &RQTXHVWRQXRYRFDPSLRQHGLVWLPDSRVVRYDOXWDUHOHSUHYLVLRQLDQFKHSHUOಬLQGLFHGHL SUH]]L DO FRQVXPR SHU Oಬ,QJKLOWHUUD GDWR FKH OD VHULH VWRULFD SL» DJJLRUQDWD GL TXHVWR LQGLFH LQFRQWUDWD QHO GDWDEDVH 2(&' SHU LO SDHVH DQJORVDVVRQH LQL]LD SURSULR LO SULPR WULPHVWUHGHO/ಬDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLGಬLQIOD]LRQHYDOXWDWDWUDPLWHL506(Vª SUHVHQWDWDLQ7DEHOODH. Tabella 5.3: RMSEs - 2000:1 2009:4 8.( campione di stima 1988:1 1999:4 ). 2UL]]RQWL. &3,. . . . . . . 8.VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH . . . . . . 8.VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . 8.VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH. . . . . . . */2%$/VKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWH rrr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1. Tabella 5.4: RMSEs - 2000:1 2009:4 8.( campione di stima 1988:1 1999:4 ). 2UL]]RQWL. &3,. . . . . . . XNLQWHUHVWUDWHV/7. . . . . . . JOREDOLQWHUHVWUDWHV/7. rrr rrr rrr rrr rrr rrr. . . . . . . . 3ULYDWHILQDOFRQVXPSWLRQH[SHQGLWXUH . . . . . . XNLQWHUHVWUDWHV/7. . . . . . . JOREDOLQWHUHVWUDWHV/7. rrr rrr rrr rrr rrr rrr. . . . . . . . 3,/GHIODWRU. . . . . . . XNLQWHUHVWUDWHV/7. . . . . . . JOREDOLQWHUHVWUDWHV/7 rrr rrr rrr rrr rrr -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Note: guarda Tabella 4.1 25.
(96) ,Q7DEHOODWURYLDPRL506(VSURGRWWLGDOOHSUHYLVLRQLVXOODEDVHGHOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVH LQWHUQR H JOREDOH GL EUHYH SHULRGR ,O FDPELDPHQWR GHO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD ODVFLD FRPXQTXHLQDOWHUDWHOHFRQFOXVLRQLWUDWWHGDOOD7DEHOODRVVLDOಬLQIRUPD]LRQHDSSRUWDWD GDOOD FRPSRQHQWH JOREDOH QRQ PLJOLRUD OಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH LQJOHVL 3UHYLVLRQL IXRUL GDO FDPSLRQH VXOOD EDVH GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH GL OXQJR SHULRGR ULVXOWDQR LQYHFH SL» DFFXUDWH XWLOL]]DQGR LO QXRYR FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD FRPH LOOXVWUDWR LQ 7DEHOODGRYHL506(VSURGRWWLGDOODFRPSRQHQWHJOREDOHULVXOWDQRVLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH LQIHULRULSHUWXWWHOHPLVXUHGಬLQIOD]LRQHHSHURJQLRUL]]RQWHWHPSRUDOHDGHFFH]LRQHGHO GHIODWRUHGHO3,/DWULPHVWULLQDYDQWL &RPH SHU OH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH GHJOL 6WDWL 8QLWL YHGL SDUDJUDIR %
(97) OಬLPSDWWR GHOOD FRPSRQHQWH JOREDOH ULVXOWD PROWR SL» VLJQLILFDWLYR SHU OH SUHYLVLRQL GಬLQIOD]LRQH LQJOHVL XWLOL]]DQGR FRPH FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD LO SHULRGR WHPSRUDOH SRVW ULVSHWWR D TXDQWRDYYLHQHXVDQGRLOFDPSLRQHGLVWLPD &RQ LO QXRYR SHULRGR GL VWLPD OಬDQDOLVL GHOOD VWDELOLW¢ SHU L PRGHOOL SUHYLVLYL
(98) ದ
(99) WUDPLWHLO&XVXPRIVTXDUHWHVWULYHODXQDULGX]LRQHGHOOಬLQVWDELOLW¢LQYDULDQ]DULVSHWWR DO FDPSLRQHHYLGHQWHDQFKHGDOJUDILFRGHLUHVLGXLULFRUVLYLFKHLQUDULFDVL ROWUHSDVVDQRJOLLQWHUYDOOLVWDELOLWLFRPHOLPLWH /D VWLPD ULFRUVLYD GHL SDUDPHWUL QRQ IXRULHVFH PDL GDOOH EDQGH GL FRQILGHQ]D PHQWUH OಬLQVWDELOLW¢ GHL SDUDPHWUL ULYHODWD GDO &XVXP WHVW GLPLQXLVFH ULPDQHQGR HYLGHQWH VRSUDWWXWWRSHULPRGHOOLGDRUL]]RQWLWHPSRUDOLLQSRL $QFKH SHU Oಬ,QJKLOWHUUD LO &KRZ %UHDNSRLQW 7HVW VHJQDOD FDPELDPHQWL VWUXWWXUDOL WUD OD SULPD H OD VHFRQGD PHW¢ GHO ULILXWDQGR OಬLSRWHVL QXOOD SHU OH GDWH FRPSUHVH WUD LO ದ 3HU OಬHFRQRPLD LQJOHVH TXHVWR SXQWR GL URWWXUD ULVXOWD SL» HYLGHQWH HG XQD SRVVLELOH VSLHJD]LRQH SX´ HVVHUH GDWD GDO GLUHWWR FRLQYROJLPHQWR QHL QXRYL DFFRUGL HFRQRPLFL H PRQHWDULVWDELOLWLLQ(XURSDFRQLO7UDWWDWRGL0DDVWULFKWQHOSHUQRQGLPHQWLFDUHOD JXHUUD GHL %DOFDQL FKH KD WHQXWR VRWWR DJLWD]LRQH L SDHVL HXURSHL H JOL RUJDQLVPL LQWHUQD]LRQOLGXUDQWHLOSHULRGRದ 26.
(100) 'LVFXVVLRQHHDQDOLVLGHLULVXOWDWL 5LFRUGR FKH LO PLR RELHWWLYR QRQ ª SURSRUUH XQ QXRYR PRGHOOR SUHGLWWLYR VXOOD EDVH GHO WDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHFKHSHUPHWWDSUHYLVLRQLLQIOD]LRQLVWLFKHPDJJLRUPHQWHDFFXUDWH PD VROR GLPRVWUDUH VH OD FRPSRQHQWH PRQHWDULD LQWHUQD]LRQDOH DLXWD OH SUHYLVLRQL D FRQIURQWR FRQ OD FRPSRQHQWH LQWHUQD FKH ª VHPSUH VWDWD FRQVLGHUDWD FRPH OD SULPD UHVSRQVDELOHGHOPRYLPHQWRGHLSUH]]LIXWXUL +R TXLQGL ELVRJQR GL DQDOL]]DUH L ULVXOWDWL RWWHQXWL LQ PHULWR DO FRQWULEXWR GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH ULVSHWWR D TXHOOR GRPHVWLFR QHOOH SUHYLVLRQL GಬLQIOD]LRQH SHU JOL 6WDWL 8QLWLHSHUOಬ,QJKLOWHUUD ·. 3HU JOL 6WDWL 8QLWL Gಬ$PHULFD XWLOL]]DQGR LO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD FRPSUHVR WUD LO SULPR WULPHVWUH GHO HG LO TXDUWR WULPHVWUH GHO LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH GL EUHYH SHULRGR DXPHQWD OಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL ULVSHWWR DO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH LQWHUQRVRORQHOGHLFDVL DXPHQWDODSUHFLVLRQHGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLDGXQWULPHVWUH LQDYDQWLQHO3)&(HQHO&3,
(101) PHQWUHLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHGLOXQJRSHULRGR PLJOLRUDOHSUHYLVLRQLQHOGHLFDVL DXPHQWDODSUHFLVLRQHGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLGDD RUL]]RQWL SHU LO 3)&( GD D RUL]]RQWL SHU LO GHIODWRUH GHO 3,/ H GD D RUL]]RQWLSHULO&3,
(102) 6HXWLOL]]RFRPH FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD LO SHULRGR SRVW RVVLDGDO SULPR WULPHVWUH GHO DO TXDUWR WULPHVWUH GHO DVVRFLDWR FRQ XQ SL» DOWR JUDGR GL LQWHJUD]LRQH GHL PHUFDWL GHL EHQL H GHL FDSLWDOL RWWHQJR GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL SL» VRGGLVIDFHQWL 6LD LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH D EUHYH FKH D OXQJR WHUPLQH SURGXFRQR FRPXQTXH 506(V PROWR LQIHULRUL D TXHOOL FKH VL RWWHQJRQR FRQ LO SUHFHGHQWH FDPSLRQHGLVWLPD ,O WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH GL EUHYH SHULRGR QRQ SRUWD D SUHYLVLRQL SL» DFFXUDWH D FRQIURQWRFRQTXHOORLQWHUQRPHQWUHLQYHFHTXHOORGLOXQJRJHQHUDSUHYLVLRQLPROWR SL»DFFXUDWHULVSHWWRDTXHOOHULFDYDWHVXOODEDVHGHOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHGRPHVWLFRQHO GHLFDVL 27.
(103) ·. $QDOL]]DQGR OಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH SHU Oಬ,QJKLOWHUUD FRQ LO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD QRWLDPR FKH LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH VLD GL EUHYH FKH GL OXQJR SHULRGR
(104) QRQ PLJOLRUD OD SUHFLVLRQH D FRQIURQWR FRQ LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH GRPHVWLFR /ಬLQIRUPD]LRQH DSSRUWDWD GDOOD FRPSRQHQWH JOREDOH DLXWD OH SUHYLVLRQLVRORSHUXQWULPHVWUHLQDYDQWL /H SUHYLVLRQL RWWHQXWH GDO FDPSLRQH GL VWLPD SRVW GLYHQWDQR LQYHFH SL» LQWHUHVVDQWL ,O WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH GL EUHYH SHULRGR ULVXOWD VHPSUH PHQR VLJQLILFDWLYR DL ILQL SUHYLVLYL GL TXHOOR LQWHUQR 9LFHYHUVD OH SUHYLVLRQL VXOOD EDVH GHO WDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHGLOXQJRSHULRGRDQFKHVHSURGXFRQR506(VVXSHULRULD TXHOORGLEUHYHSHULRGRULVXOWDQRSL»DFFXUDWHQHOGHLFDVL . /ಬDQDOLVL VXOOH SUHYLVLRQL LQIOD]LRQLVWLFKH SHU OಬHFRQRPLD VWDWXQLWHQVH HG LQJOHVH KD GLPRVWUDWRFKHQHOSHULRGRVXFFHVVLYRDOLOOLYHOORGHLSUH]]LULVXOWDSL»VHQVLELOHD PRGLILFD]LRQLGHOODOLTXLGLW¢JOREDOHGLVSRQLELOH /D IRUWH LQWHJUD]LRQH GHJOLVFDPEL FRPPHUFLDOLLQWHUQD]LRQDOL H OD FUHVFHQWH GLSHQGHQ]D GHL SDHVL JOL XQL GDJOL DOWUL GHILQLWR LQHFRQRPLDFRPH LO IHQRPHQR GHOOD JOREDOL]]D]LRQH ILQDQ]LDULD FKH VL ª YHULILFDWD GDOOD VHFRQGD PHW¢ GHO LQ PROWL SDHVL LQGXVWULDOL]]DWLKDFRPHHIIHWWRSULQFLSDOHXQDGHFLVDFRQYHUJHQ]DHFRQRPLFD ,QIDWWL QHO FRUVR GHJOL XOWLPL YHQWL DQQL OH GLQDPLFKH GHOO LQIOD]LRQH VRQR GLYHQWDWH SL» VLQFURQL]]DWH H GLYHUVL SDHVL KDQQR FRQGLYLVR HVSHULHQ]H VLPLOL FRQ LQIOD]LRQH EDVVD H VWDELOHDSDUWLUHGDOO LQL]LRGHO ,OIHQRPHQRGHOODJOREDOL]]D]LRQHILQDQ]LDULDªTXLQGLLOPRWLYRSULQFLSDOHFKHKDIDYRULWR OಬHVSDQGHUVLVXVFDODLQWHUQD]LRQDOHGLFHUWLPHFFDQLVPLGLWUDVPLVVLRQHPDFURHFRQRPLFL FKH ILQR D TXHVWR PRPHQWR VRQR VWDWL SRFR SUHVL LQ FRQVLGHUD]LRQH GDOOD OHWWHUDWXUD HFRQRPLFD 5LVXOWDFKLDURGXQTXHFKHXWLOL]]DQGRLOFDPSLRQHGLVWLPDSRVWVLULHVFHPHJOLRD FDWWXUDUH LO FRQWHQXWR LQIRUPDWLYR GHO GHQDUR FKH QRQ ª SL» ULIOHVVR QHJOL DJJUHJDWL QD]LRQDOLPDSLXWWRVWRVLªLQFDUQDWRLQPLVXUHGLOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOH 28.
(105) 0RGHOORJOREDOHDFRQIURQWR86$YV8. &RQIURQWDQGRRUDLULVXOWDWLRWWHQXWLSHUOHGXHHFRQRPLHSUHVHLQFRQVLGHUD]LRQHSRVVR DIIHUPDUH FKH LO PRGHOOR SUHGLWWLYR JOREDOH VL DGDWWD PHJOLR DOOD UHDOH VLWXD]LRQH HFRQRPLFRILQDQ]LDULD GHJOL 6WDWL XQLWL WXWWDYLD OH SUHYLVLRQL HIIHWWXDWH VXOOD EDVH GHOOD FRPSRQHQWH JOREDOH GL OXQJR SHULRGR ULVXOWDQR DQFKH SHU Oಬ,QJKLOWHUUD SL» DFFXUDWH GL TXHOOHRWWHQXWHVXOODEDVHGHOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHLQWHUQR4XHVWRPLJOLRUDGDWWDPHQWRSX´ HVVHUH GRYXWR DG XQ GLYHUVR JUDGR GಬDSHUWXUD GHO PHUFDWR VWDWXQLWHQVH DOOಬHFRQRPD LQWHUQD]LRQDOHFKHUHQGHLOOLYHOORGHLSUH]]LSL»VHQVLELOHDOOHPRGLILFD]LRQLGHOODOLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH &RQVLGHUDQGR OD GLYHUVD VWUXWWXUD HFRQRPLFRILQDQ]LDULD GHL SDHVL SUHVL LQ HVDPH FKH SX´ ULGXUUH OಬHIIHWWR GHOOH YDULD]LRQL GL OLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH VXO OLYHOOR GHL SUH]]L ULPDQH FRPXQTXH HYLGHQWH SHU HQWUDPEH OH HFRQRPLH OD PLJOLRU DFFXUDWH]]D GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOHDOXQJRWHUPLQHULVSHWWRDTXHOORLQWHUQRQHOSUHYHGHUHLPRYLPHQWLGHO WDVVRGಬLQIOD]LRQHGRPHVWLFR 29.
(106) &RQFOXVLRQL /ಬDQDOLVLHIIHWWXDWDLQTXHVWDWHVLSRQHOಬDFFHQWRVXOGHWHULRUDPHQWRGHLFODVVLFLDVVXQWLGHOOD WHRULDHFRQRPLFD(VVLYDFLOODQRLQXQPRQGRLQFXLOಬLQWHJUD]LRQHHFRQRPLFDHILQDQ]LDULDª VHPSUHSL»XQIHQRPHQRJOREDOHFKHSHUPHWWHLOWUDVPHWWHUVLGLPHFFDQLVPLLQWHUQD]LRQDOL FKHYROHQWLRQROHQWLLQIOXHQ]DQROHHFRQRPLHQD]LRQDOLGHLSDHVLGHO*HQRQVROR 'RSR DYHU FRQIURQWDWR OH SUHYLVLRQL GಬLQIOD]LRQH RWWHQXWH VXOOD EDVH GHO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH FRQ TXHOOH SURGRWWH GDOOಬLQGLFDWRUH PRQHWDULR LQWHUQR L GDWL PL SHUPHWWRQR GL DIIHUPDUHFKHODFRPSRQHQWHJOREDOHFRQWLHQHLQIRUPD]LRQLXWLOLSHUSUHYHGHUHLPRYLPHQWL IXWXULGHLSUH]]LSHUJOL6WDWL8QLWLHGLQPLQRUPLVXUDDQFKHSHUOಬ,QJKLOWHUUD , PLHL ULVXOWDWL DSSRJJLDQR TXLQGL TXDQWR GLPRVWUDWR GD 'ಬ$JRVWLQR H 6XULFR LO FRQWHQXWR LQIRUPDWLYR GHO GHQDUR QRQ ª SL» ULIOHVVR QHJOL DJJUHJDWL QD]LRQDOL PD SLXWWRVWR VL ª LQFDUQDWRLQPLVXUHGLOLTXLGLW¢DOLYHOORPRQGLDOH /ಬDQDOLVLHPSLULFDVLDQHOFDVRVWDWXQLWHQVHFKHLQTXHOORLQJOHVHULYHODXQSRWHUHSUHGLWWLYR VXSHULRUH SHU LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH JOREDOH ULVSHWWR D TXHOOR GRPHVWLFR VH SUHQGLDPR LQ FRQVLGHUD]LRQH FRPH LQGLFDWRUH PRQHWDULR LO WDVVR GಬLQWHUHVVH GL OXQJR SHULRGR PHQWUH ULVXOWDLQIHULRUHVHXWLOL]]LDPRLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHGLEUHYHSHULRGR /DPDJJLRUDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLGಬLQIOD]LRQHVXOODEDVHGHOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOH GLOXQJRSHULRGRULVSHWWRDTXHOODSURGRWWDGDOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHGRPHVWLFRGLOXQJRSHULRGR SX´ HVVHUH VSLHJDWD GDOOD FRUUHOD]LRQH HVLVWHQWH WUD TXDQWLW¢ GL PRQHWD HG LQIOD]LRQH PRGLILFD]LRQL GHOOಬRIIHUWD GL PRQHWD GD SDUWH GHOOಬDXWRULW¢ GL SROLWLFD PRQHWDULD LQIOXHQ]DQR GLUHWWDPHQWHLWDVVLGಬLQWHUHVVHDEUHYHFKHSRUWDQRODGRPDQGDGRPHVWLFDGLPRQHWDQHO SXQWR GಬHTXLOLEULR JOL HIIHWWL YHQJRQR SRL WUDVPHVVL QHO OXQJR SHULRGR DL WDVVL D SL» OXQJD VFDGHQ]DDWWUDYHUVROHDVSHWWDWLYHGHJOLLQYHVWLWRULVXOOಬDQGDPHQWRGHOVLVWHPDHFRQRPLFR 9DULD]LRQL GHOOD OLTXLGLW¢ JOREDOH VL ULIOHWWRQR TXLQGL QHO OXQJR SHULRGR VLD VXO WDVVR GಬLQIOD]LRQHGRPHVWLFRFKHVXLWDVVLGಬLQWHUHVVHDOXQJRWHUPLQH. 30.
(107) $SSHQGLFH$ 7HVW SHU FRPSDUDUH OಬDFFXUDWH]]D SUHGLWWLYD SURSRVWR GD 'LHEROG H 0DULDQR
(108) ͳ ʹ ሼ ሽLQGLFDOHVHULHGHOODTXDOHHIIHWWXROHSUHYLVLRQLPHQWUHȁ Hȁ LQGLFDQRGXHSUHYLVLRQL. GLݐݕഝ EDVDWHVX,W. ͳ 3HUHVHPSLRȁ GHQRWDODVHULHGLSUHYLVLRQLEDVDWDVXOPRGHOORFRQLOWDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHLQWHUQR. ʹ >VSHFLILFD]LRQL
(109) H
(110) @PHQWUHȁ GHQRWDODVHULHGLSUHYLVLRQLEDVDWHVXOPRGHOORFRQLO. WDVVRGಬLQWHUHVVHJOREDOH>VSHFLILFD]LRQL
(111) H
(112) @. *OLHUURULGLSUHYLVLRQHSHULGXHPRGHOOLVRQR ͳ ɂͳȁ ൌ െ ȁ ʹ ʹ ɂȁ ൌ െ ȁ . $VVXPHQGRFKHOHSUHYLVLRQLSHUKSDVVLLQDYDQWLVLDQRFDOFRODWHSHUW Wಹ7SHUXQWRWDOHGL 7OHVHULHGHJOLHUURULGLSUHYLVLRQHVRQR. . ൛ɂͳȁ ൟ Ͳ . ൛ɂʹȁ ൟ Ͳ. 3RLFK« OH SUHYLVLRQL SHU KSDVVL DYDQWL XWLOL]]DQR GDWL FKH VL VRYUDSSRQJRQR JOL HUURUL GL . . SUHYLVLRQH൛ɂͳȁ ൟ H൛ɂͳȁ ൟ VDUDQQRVHULDOPHQWHFRUUHODWL Ͳ. Ͳ. /ಬDFFXUDWH]]DGLRJQLSUHYLVLRQHªPLVXUDWDGDXQDSDUWLFRODUHIXQ]LRQHGLSHUGLW¢ ൫ ǡ ȁ ൯ ൌ ൫ɂȁ ൯ǡ. /HIXQ]LRQLGLSHUGLWDSRVVRQRHVVHUH ·. ൌ ͳǡʹ ʹ. )XQ]LRQL GL SHUGLWD TXDGUDWLFD ൫ɂȁ ൯ ൌ ൫ɂȁ ൯ SHU YDOXWDUH OಬDFFXUDWH]]D GHOOD. SUHYLVLRQLVHXVLDPRLO0HDQ6TXDUH)RUHFDVW(UURU 06)(
(113) ·. )XQ]LRQLGLSHUGLWDDVVROXWD൫ɂȁ ൯ ൌ หˢȁ หSHUYDOXWDUHOಬDFFXUDWH]]DGHOOD. SUHYLVLRQHVHXVLDPRLO5RRW0HDQ6TXDUH(UURU 506(
(114) . 3HUGHWHUPLQDUHVHXQPRGHOORSUHGLFHPHJOLRGLXQDOWURVLSX´YHULILFDUHOಬLSRWHVLQXOOD &RQWUROಬLSRWHVLDOWHUQDWLYD. +ൣ൫ɂͳȁ ൯൧ ൌ ൣ൫ɂʹȁ ൯൧. $
(115) RSSXUH $
(116). +ൣ൫ɂͳȁ ൯൧ ് ൣ൫ɂʹȁ ൯൧. +ൣ൫ɂͳȁ ൯൧ ൣ൫ɂʹȁ ൯൧. 31.
(117) ,OWHVWSURSRVWRGD'LHEROGH0DULDQRVLEDVDVXOGLIIHUHQ]LDOHGLSHUGLWD ൌ ൫ɂͳȁ ൯ െ ൫ɂʹȁ ൯. /DVWDWLVWLFDWHVWYDTXLQGLDYHULILFDUHOಬLSRWHVLQXOOD. +ܧሾ݀ ݐሿ ൌ Ͳ ,OWHVWGL'LHEROGH0DULDQRªܵ. ൌ. ቌ. ݀ത. ݀ഥ ܸܴܮ ൘ ቍ ܶͲ. ͳൗ ʹ. . GRYH ܶ. ͳ ݀ ൌ ݀ ݐ ܶͲ . ݐൌͲ ݐ. ܸܴ݀ܮത ൌ ߛͲ ʹ ߛ݆ ǡ ߛ݆ ൌ ܿݒሺ݀ ݐǡ ݀ݐെ݆ ሻ ݆ ൌͳ. ݀ത ªXQDVWLPDFRQVLVWHQWHGHOODYDULDQ]DDVLQWRWLFD GLOXQJRSHULRGR
(118) ඥܶͲ ݀ҧ Hܸܴܮ. 8VLDPR OD YDULDQ]D GL OXQJR SHULRGR SHUFK« OD VHULH GHL GLIIHUHQ]LDOL GL SHUGLWD ሼ݀ ݐሽܶ ͲݐVRQR VHULDOPHQWHFRUUHODWLSHUK!. 'LHEROG H 0DULDQR KDQQR SRL GLPRVWUDWR FKH OD VWDWLVWLFD 6 VRWWR OಬLSRWHVL QXOOD VL GLVWULEXLVFH DVLQWRWLFDPHQWHFRPHXQD1RUPDOHGLPHGLD]HURHYDULDQ]DXQR ܵ ̱ܰ ܣሺͲǡͳሻ. 6LULILXWHU¢TXLQGLOಬLSRWHVLQXOODDXQOLYHOORGLFRQILGHQ]DߙǡVH $
(119) $
(120). ȁܵȁ ܼͳെߙ VHOಬLSRWHVLDOWHUQDWLYDªGLWLSRELODWHUDOH ʹ. ܵ ܼͳെߙ VHOಬLSRWHVLDOWHUQDWLYDªGLWLSRXQLODWHUDOH. 32.
(121) %LEOLRJUDILD >@ %DUVN\ 5REHUW % DQG /XW] .LOLDQ
(122) ಯ'R ZH 5HDOO\ .QRZ WKDW 2LO &DXVHG WKH *UHDW 6WDJIODWLRQ"$0RQHWDU\$OWHUQDWLYHರ1%(50DFURHFRQRPLFV$QQXDOLQ%%HUQDQNHDQG.5RJRII HGV
(123) SS >@ %HQDWL /XFD
(124) ಯ/RQJUXQ (YLGHQFH RQ 0RQH\ *URZWK DQG ,QIODWLRQರ (XURSHDQ &HQWUDO %DQN PLPHR >@ &ODUN 7RGG DQG 0LFKDHO : 0F&UDFNHQ
(125) ಯ(YDOXDWLQJ 'LUHFW 0XOWL6WHS )RUHFDVWVರ (FRQRPHWULF5HYLHZVSS >@ 'ಬ$JRVWLQR $QWRQHOOR 6XULFR 3DROR
(126) ಯ'RHV *OREDO /LTXLGLW\ +HOS WR )RUHFDVW 86 ,QIODWLRQರ -RXUQDORI0RQH\&UHGLWDQG%DQNLQJ9ROXPH1XPEHUVSS >@ 'LHEROG)UDQFLV;DQG560DULDQR
(127) ಯ&RPSDULQJ3UHGLFWLYH$FFXUDF\ರ-RXUQDORI%XVLQHVV DQG(FRQRPLF6WDWLVWLFV >@ *DO¯ -RUGL 6WHIDQ *HUODFK -XOLR 5RWHPEHUJ +DUDOG 8KOLJ DQG 0LFKDHO :RRGIRUG
(128) ಯ7KH 0RQHWDU\3ROLF\6WUDWHJ\RIWKH(&%5HFRQVLGHUHG0RQLWRULQJWKH(XURSHDQ&HQWUDO%DQNರ&(35 /RQGRQ >@ /XFDV5REHUW(MU
(129) ಯ7ZR,OOXVWUDWLRQVRIWKH4XDQWLW\7KHRU\RI0RQH\ರ$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF 5HYLHZSS >@ 0DQNLZ1*UHJRU\
(130) ಯ0DFURHFRQRPLDrHGL]LRQHರ=DQLFKHOOLHGLWRUH >@ 5RJRII .HQQHWK
(131) ಯ*OREDOL]DWLRQ DQG *OREDO 'LVLQIODWLRQರ SUHVHQWHG DW -DFNVRQ +ROH FRQIHUHQFHRQಫ0RQHWDU\3ROLF\DQG8QFHUWDLQW\$GDSWLQJWRD&KDQJLQJ(FRQRP\ಬ)HGHUDO5HVHUYH %DQNRI.DQVDV&LW\ >@ 6WRFN -DPHV DQG 0DUN :DWVRQ
(132) ಯ:K\ +DV 86 ,QIODWLRQ %HFRPH +DUGHU WR )RUHFDVWV"ರ -RXUQDORI0RQH\&UHGLWDQG%DQNLQJIRUWKFRPLQJ >@ 9HUEHHN0DUQR
(133) ಯ(FRQRPHWULDrHGL]LRQHರ=DQLFKHOOLHGLWRUH >@ :RRGIRUG 0LFKDHO
(134) ಯ,QWHUHVW DQG 3ULFHV )RXQGDWLRQV RI D 7KHRU\ RI 0RQHWDU\ 3ROLF\ರ 3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV . /ಬDQDOLVL HFRQRPHWULD GHL GDWL ª VWDWD HVHJXLWD WUDPLWH LO VRIWZDUH (YLHZV HG LO GDWDEDVH XWLOL]]DWRSHUOಬLQGDJLQHªGLVSRQLELOHVXOVLWRGHO2(&' KWWSO\VDQGHUVRXUFHRHFGRUJ
(135) . 33.
(136)
Documenti correlati
L'Ufficio è responsabile di tutte le fasi del ciclo del progetto che garantiscono la realizzazione degli obiettivi dei programmi preparati dalle direzioni generali
aperto al pubblico per rispondere alle domande sull’UE, per dare consulenza e assistenza sui diritti dei cittadini europei e per permettere l’accesso gratuito ai documenti
proteggere le banconote e le monete in euro contro la contraffazione e le relative frodi , sostenendo e integrando le iniziative avviate dagli Stati membri e assistendo le
400 - Entrate per l’erogazione del rimborso ai partiti e movimenti politici in relazione alle spese elettorali sostenute per il rinnovo della Ca- mera dei deputati (articolo 1
400 - Entrate per l’erogazione del rimborso ai partiti e movimenti politici in relazione alle spese elettorali sostenute per il rinnovo della Ca- mera dei deputati (articolo 1
La politica tedesca, precisando di parlare a titolo personale, ha detto a Bruxelles che è ora di «av- viare una discussione a livello Ue» sull’obbligo vaccinale, dato che il 33%
La garanzia può essere rilasciata per finanziamenti di importo non superiore al 25 per cento dei ricavi del sog- getto beneficiario come risultante dall’ultimo bilancio depositato
Ma già ora, in autunno, a causa della meteorologia così fluttuante si assiste a tantissimi casi di sindromi simil-influenzali (in- fluenza-like illness, ILI) dovuti agli altri