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The structure and methodology of international debt statistics

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EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE

EUROPEAN POLICY UNIT

G PAPER No. 88/346

Ór

AND METHODOLOGY >N&L DEBT STATISTICS

Q *

^ / b y

ifìsio ESPA

BADIA FIESOLANA, SAN D O M EN ICO (F I )

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research

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T h i s p a p e r s h o u l d not be r e p r o d u c e d in w h o l e or i w i t h o u t p r i o r p e r a i s s i o n of t h e a u t h o r (c) E f i s i o E spa P r i n t e d in I t a l y in J u n e 1988 E u r o p e a n U n i v e r s i t y I n s t i t u t e Badi a Fi e s o l a n a 1 - 5 0 0 1 6 S a n D o m e n i c o (Fi) I t a l y n p art © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research

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T he E u r o p e a n P o l i c y U n i t

T he E u r o p e a n P o l i c y U n i t at the E u r o p e a n U n i v e r s i t y

I n s t i t u t e was c r e a t e d to f u r t h e r t h r e e m a i n goals. First, to

c o n t i n u e the d e v e l o p m e n t of the E u r o p e a n U n i v e r s i t y I n s t i t u t e as a f o r u m f or cri t i c a l d i s c u s s i o n of key i t e m s on t he C o m m u n i t y ag e n d a . S e c o n d , to e n h a n c e the d o c u m e n t a t i o n a v a i l a b l e to s c h o l a r s of E u r o p e a n a f f a i r s . Third, to s p o n s o r i n d i v i d u a l r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s on t o p i c s of c u r r e n t i n t e r e s t to the E u r o p e a n C o m m u n i t i e s . B oth as i n - d e p t h b a c k g r o u n d s t u d i e s and as p o l i c y a n a l y s e s in t h e i r own r ight, t h e s e p r o j e c t s s h o u l d p r o v e v a l u a b l e to C o m m u n i t y p o l i c y - m a k i n g . T h i s p a p e r is an o u t c o m e of the p r o j e c t on the L a t i n A m e r i c a n e c o n o m i e s s p o n s o r e d by the E u r o p e a n P o l i c y Unit.

A l t h o u g h k e e p i n g total r e s p o n s i b i l i t y for r e m a i n i n g e r r o r s and

o m i s s i o n s the a u t h o r w i s h e s to t h a n k p r o f e s s o r M a r c e l l o de C e c c o

who s u g g e s t e d t he u n d e r t a k i n g of t h i s w o r k and w i t h w h o m the

s t r u c t u r e of t his p a p e r w as d i s c u s s e d . T h a n k s are a lso due to

G i u s e p p e Conti w ho m a d e s e v e r a l s u g g e s t i o n s u p o n a f i r s t d r a f t of

the work, F r a n c o B i s c o n t i n , R e n z o D a v i d d i , G i o v a n n i Ferri,

E u g e n i o G a i o t t i , P e t e r K e n n e a l y and L i v i o T o r n e t t a .

F u r t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t the w o r k of the E u r o p e a n

P o l i c y U n i t can be o b t a i n e d f r o m the D i r e c t o r , at the E u r o p e a n

U n i v e r s i t y I n s t i t u t e in F l o r e n c e . © The Author(s). European University Institute. Digitised version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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■ • © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research

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Contents Introduction Part 1 .

1. An estimate of the total gross debt.

2. A distinction between public and private sources of external funds.

3. Specifications concerning the different nature of the recipient in the borrowing country.

4. Details on the different financial instruments through which external funds have been received by the borrowing country.

5. Details on the maturity structure of the debt.

6. Details on the service of the debt and on its future projections.

7. Specifications on disbursed and undisbursed credits and on commitments.

8. Details concerning flow aggregates and in particular net flows.

9. Information on interest rates (in connection with external indebtedness) and terms of commitments.

10.Information on debt restructurings.

11. A 'Lending Country to Borrowing Country' matrix of external indebtedness.

12. A measure of capital flight.

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research

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Part 2

1. The different reporting systems. 2. The country classifications.

3. The major central banks' statistics concerning banking indebtedness.

4. The problem of exchange rates fluctuations. Tables

Appendix

1. The suggested scheme - Argentina. 2. The ‘banking m a t r i x 1 - Argentina. References © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research

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I n t r o d u c t i o n 1

A n y o n e i n t e r e s t e d in g e ne ra l i n f o rm at io n a n d s t a t i s t i c s c o n c e r n i n g the f o re ig n debt of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and, in pa rt ic ul ar , li ab i l i t i e s towards in te rn at io na l p r i v a t e banks, is i m m e di at el y s u r p r i s e d by the huge a v a i l a b i l i t y of da ta and reports r e g u l a r l y p u b l i s h e d bo th by p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e

i n st it ut io ns - the W o r l d Bank (WB), the I n t e r n a t i o n a l

M o n e t a r y Fund (IMF), the Bank for In te r n a t i o n a l S e t t l e m e n t s (BIS), the O r g a n i z a t i o n for E c o n o m i c C o - o p e r a t i o n and

De ve l o p m e n t (OECD), the ma j o r ce nt ra l banks, se veral

n a t i on al sources, the M o r g a n Guaranty, an d A m e r i c a n E x pr es s bein g the ma jo r b o di es p r o v i d i n g these figures.

It goes w i t h o u t sa yi ng that all thes e v a r i o u s s o u r c e s of in fo r m a t i o n use d i f f e r e n t p r o c e d u r e s to co l l e c t the d a t a and d i ff er en t st at i s t i c a l m e t h o d o l o g i e s in e l a b o r a t i n g and

p u b l i s h i n g them. Th is has led, amon g other things, to the

f o ll ow in g three outcomes:

1) D i ff er en t es ti m a t e s of the same ag gr eg at e, so me t i m e s

1. T w o a r t i cl es have b e e n impo rt an t for the d r a f t i n g of

this article: 'Foreign L e nd in g by Bank s - A g u i d e to

in te r n a t i o n a l a n d U.S. st at is ti cs ', by R o d n e y H. Mills, F e de ra l R e s e r v e B u l l e t i n , Vol. 72, no. 10, O c t o b e r 1986 and M e a s u r i n g D e v e l o p i n g Countries' Exte rn al De bt - A g u i d e to the m a i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l so ur ce s of in fo rm at io n' , by R a ch el We av in g, F i n a n c e & D e v e l o p m e n t , M a r c h 1987. A f t e r th is pa pe r was c o m p l e t e d we we re in fo rm ed of a recent O E C D p u b l i c a t i o n , E x t e r n a l Debt S t a t i s t i c s , Paris, 1988, m a d e by a g r o u p of

BIS, IMF, OECD, W o r l d Bank s t a t is ti ci an s, c o n c e r n i n g

me th od o l o g i e s , c o v e r a g e a n d m a n y ot he r p r o b l e m s of fo re ig n debt statistics. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research

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of a too ex ce s s i v e size ;

2) D i ff er en t c r i t er ia in p r e s e n t i n g the same

a g g r e g a t e J ;

3) Di f f e r e n t d e gr ee of c o m p l e t e n e s s a n d time c o ve ra ge in the data set-up.

Co ns eq ue nt ly , in orde r to get a c o m p l e t e and d e t a i l e d s t a t is ti ca l p i c t u r e of the exte rn al debt si tu a t i o n one has

to m a k e use of so urces s o me ti me s on ly ve ry lo os el y

c o m p a r a b l e an d c o m p a t i b l e wi th ea ch other. As a result we are left wi th a s o l u t i o n wh i c h consists, firstly, in tr yi ng to es ta b l i s h as p r e c i s e l y as p o s s i b l e the m o s t impo rt an t f e at ur es to w h i c h a set of st at is ti cs on the fo re ig n debt

s h ou ld c o r r e s p o n d and, secondly, in lo ok in g for the best

a v a i l a b l e fi gures that can fit those features.

This ar ticle, wh i c h will focus on the st ru c t u r e and

m e t h o d o l o g y of o f fi ci al s t a t is ti ca l so ur ce s and mo re

p r e c i s e l y o n the da ta s u p p l i e d by i n t e r n at io na l

inst it ut io ns a n d na ti on al central banks, is o r g a n i s e d in the

fo ll ow in g way: in the first part we will look for

de fi n i t i o n s of the 'ideal' r e q u i r e m e n t s for a set of

d e b t / b a n k i n g statistics, i.e. what is mo st n e e d e d in orde r to have the m o s t c o m p l e t e d e s c r i p t i o n of a co u n t r y ' s

ex te rn al in de btedness; at the same time thos e re qu ir e m e n t s

will be c o n f r o n t e d with the c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e o f fi ci al 23 2

2. T h e IMF, the W o r l d Bank, the OECD, ea ch offer a

d i ff er en t e s t i m a t e of total e x t e rn al de bt of d e v e l o p i n g c o un tr ie s in 1986: b e tw ee n the IMF re su lt ($916 billion) a n d the O E C D on e ($991 billion) there is "a d i f f e r e n c e of some $75 bi l l i o n that is n e ar ly four times the a m ou nt of financial su pp or t for h e a v i l y i n d e bt ed c o u n t r i e s e n v i s a g e d under the Bake r Plan", R. We aving, "Measu ri ng D e ve lo pi ng ', op. cit., p. 16.

3. For instance, the Wo r l d Bank an d the O E C D c o ns id er

"government s u p p o r t e d e x po rt credits' as b e l o n g i n g to d i ff er en t categories. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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i n t e r n a t i o n a l data that mi g h t sa ti sf y them. In the s e c o n d pa rt we wi ll o u tl in e the way da ta are c o l l e c t e d th r o u g h the

re po r t i n g sy stems of the in te r n a t i o n a l in st it u t i o n s

m e n t i o n e d in this re se ar ch a n d we wi ll s u b s e q u e n t l y ex a m i n e some p r o b l e m s ar is in g in the in t e r p r e t a t i o n of data c a u s e d

by f l u c t u a t i n g e x c h an ge rates; f i na ll y ce nt ra l banks'

s t a t i s t i c s a n d the va ri ou s co un t r i e s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n c r i t e r i a will be d i s c u s s e d in the c o n c l u d i n g sections.

T h r o u g h o u t this pape r the s t r u c t u r e of in te r n a t i o n a l debt d a t a wi ll be c l a r i f i e d wi th the h e l p of s c he me s r e p r o d u c i n g the basi c f e a t ur es of the ta bl es p u b l i s h e d in the s e ve ra l reports here analyzed; all d a t a wi ll be r e f e r r e d to Ar ge nt in a. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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Pa rt 1.

4

E x t e r n a l debt co u n t r y tables s h ou ld be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by the fo ll o w i n g feat ur es in order to of fe r a soun d basis for e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s and further st at i s t i c a l el ab oration:

1. An e s t i m a t e of the total gross d e b t .

S u c h an e s t i m a t e is s y s t e m a t i c a l l y do ne on an an nu al basi s by:

a) the W o r l d Bank (W o r l d Debt T a bl es - WB/WDT) for 109

d e v e l o p i n g co u n t r i e s (1986-87 edition); the ag gr e g a t e in the W B /W DT is d e f i n e d "as the sum of p u b l i c l o n g - t e r m d e b t , pr iv at e n o n - q u a r a n t e e d l o n g - t e r m d e b t , s h o r t - t e r m debt an d

the us e of IMF c r e d i t " (WB/WDT, 1986-87 edition, p.

x x x v i ) ( T a b l e no. I ) ; 45

4. M e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y 'area' co u n t r y t a bl es sh ou ld not di ff er s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m the 'single' c o un tr y ta bl es a l t h o u g h in this ar t i c l e the focus will be m o s t l y on the si ng le c o u n t r y statistics. T h e r e f o r e we will m a k e a d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n the two types of ta bles on ly w h e n n e c e s s a r y to stress some features either of the area or the s i ng le c o un tr y scheme. On the d i f f e r e n c e s in co u n t r y c l a s s i f i c a t i o n b e tw ee n the va ri ou s sources, see Se ct io n 2 in the s e c o n d part of this a r t i c l e .

5. A c c o r d i n g to W o r l d Bank defi ni ti on s, p u b l i c l o n g - t e r m

debt is "an ex te rn al o b l i g a t i o n of a p u bl ic debtor,

incl ud in g the na ti on al government, a p o l i t i c a l s u b d i v i s i o n (or an a g e n c y of either), an d a u t o n o m o u s p u bl ic bodies", whil e the p u b l i c l y g u a r a n t e e d debt [which c o n s t i t u t e s a

single a g g r e g a t e wi th the public' debt in the W B / W D T

figures] is "an ex te rn al o b l i g a t i o n of a p r i v a t e de btor that is g u a r a n t e e d for repayment by a p u b l i c entity"; p r i v a t e non g u a r a n t e e d debt is d e fi ne d as "an e x te rn al o b l i g a t i o n of a p r iv at e de btor that is not g u a r a n t e e d by a p u b l i c entity". Debt r e pa ya bl e in local c u r r en cy and d i r e c t i n v e st me nt s are e x c l u d e d fr om these a g g r e g a t e s wh il e s h o r t - t e r m de bt is c o n s i d e r e d as "debt that has an o r i g i n a l m a t u r i t y of one year or less" (all these q u o t a t i o n s are fr om WB/WDT, 1986-87 edition, p.xxxvi). © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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b) the OECD, wh os e s u rv ey (Fi na n c i n g and E x t e r n a l Debt of D e v e l o p i n g Co un t r i e s - O E C D / F E D C ) cover the d a t a of 134 c o un tr ie s (1986 survey, p u b l i s h e d in 1987); the O E C D figure, a l t h o u g h qu i t e d i ff er en t in its d e t a i l e d d i s a g g r e g a t i o n s fr om the W o r l d B a nk 's one (see table no. 2), is as w e l l the result of the s u m of l o n g - t e r m debt (divided in tu rn in O E C D co un t r i e s a n d ca pi ta l markets, mu lt i l a t e r a l , n o n - O E C D c r e d it or countries) s h o r t - t e r m debt an d IMF credit.

c) the IMF (W o r l d E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k - IMF/WEO) w h i c h

p u b l i s h e s a st at i s t i c o n gros s exte rn al debt r e f e r r e d bo th to the d e v e l o p i n g co un t r i e s as a wh o l e a n d to s e ve ra l g e o g r a p h i c or e c o n o m i c a l l y d e fi ne d ar e a s (Table no. 3). In these ta bl es the total de bt is c o n s i d e r e d as re su l t i n g fr om the s u m of s h o r t - t e r m a n d l o n g - t e r m debt d i v i d e d in t u r n in u n g u a r a n t e e d a n d g u a r a n t e e d debt. The debt o w e d to the IMF is e x c l u d e d fr om the st at i s t i c s as a note to the t a bl es in the W E O ma ke s clear. None of the offi ci al i n s t i t u t i o n s m a k e s an e s t i m a t e of total net debt, a m e a s u r e that w o u l d g r e a t l y c o n t r i b u t e to have a m o r e re al is ti c p i c t u r e of a c o u n t r y ' s indebtedness. Fi gu re s p u b l i s h e d by the C e n t r a l I n t e l l i g e n c e A g e n c y of the U n i t e d St at es in its H a n d b o o k of E c o n o m i c St at i s t i c s (CIA/HES) a n d by the E c o n o m i c C o m m i s s i o n for E u ro pe of the U n i t e d N a ti on s in the E c o n o m i c S u r v e y of E u ro pe a r e the on ly exception. Th es e tota l net d e b t da ta (Net H a r d - or C o n v e r t i b l e - C u r r e n c y Debt) are h o we ve r r e fe rr ed o n l y to Ea s t e r n E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s a n d the S o vi et U n i o n 6 .

6. T h e U N / E S E fi gures are o b t a i n e d s u b t r a c t i n g E a s t e r n

as sets at BIS repo rt in g banks fr om the gr o s s de bt

st at is ti cs . It is a l s o w o r t h a d d i n g that the C I A / H E S

p u b l i s h e s its es ti m a t e s on total gr os s debt for some

d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n cl ud in g all m a j o r bo rr ow er s; th e r e f o r e four di f f e r e n t total gr o s s de bt s t a t i s t i c s are a v a i l a b l e for a c e rt ai n nu mb er of countries. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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A c h oi ce be t w e e n the three figures c r u c i a l l y d e p e n d s on the d i s a g g r e g a t i o n of the m a i n a g gr eg at e that best se rv es the s p e c if ic p u r p o s e s of the a n a l ys is (for example, if m o r e em ph as is has to be p l a c e d on the p u bl ic or p r i v a t e n a tu re of the debtor, then the W B / W D T ag gr e g a t e - w h i c h ca rr ie s this d i s t i n c t i o n - wi ll be chosen).

2. A D i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n P u bl ic and P r i v a t e S o ur ce s of E x t e rn al F u n d s , the former d i vi de d in turn b e t w e e n fo r e i g n go ve rnments, i n t e r n at io na l (or m u l t i l at er al ) i n s t i t u t i o n s and othe r forms of " o f f i c i a l / o f f i c i a l l y su pp or te d" (in the

OE CD terminology) financing, the latter d i s a g g r e g a t e d in

p r iv at e fo reign banks, in te r n a t i o n a l bo nd m a r k e t s and other p r iv at e so urces (e.g., n o n g u a r a n t e e d su pp li er credits). Th is i n f o rm at io n is relevant for at least two reasons:

a. the c h an gi ng ratio of of fi ci al and p r i v a t e e x t e r n a l fi na nc in g can be an i n d i c a t i o n of d e c r e a s i n g w i l l i n g n e s s by the fo re ig n pr i v a t e sector to finance the c o u n t r y ' s economy; and, in any case,

b. the k n ow le dg e of the a b s o l u t e v a lu es of fo re ig n

pu bl ic and pr i v a t e funds and their e v o l u t i o n t h ro ug h time (together w i t h other i n di ca to rs a n d ratios) is e s s e n t i a l in order to a s se ss the r e l a ti ve seri ou sn es s of the co u n t r y ' s

ex ternal debt situation. It is clear that an e x c e s s i v e

gr ow th of fo re ig n p r i v a t e debt re quires the a n a l y s i s to take into ac co un t both p r o b l e m s c o nc er ni ng fu tu re r e pa ym en t and the s u s t a i n a b i l i t y in the year s to come of the same pa ce in pr i v a t e e x t e rn al fi na nc e growth.

T h e di st i n c t i o n c a n be found bo th in the W B / W D T and in the O E C D / F E D C ; however, the f o ll ow in g re se rv a t i o n s apply:

a) in the W B / W D T the o f f i c i a l / p r i v a t e o r i g i n of ex te rn al f i na nc in g c o n c e r n s o n l y the l o n g - t e r m s u bs et of data w h er ea s in the O E C D / F E D C a d i s t i n c t i o n is a l s o m a d e in © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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the s h o r t - t e r m se ct io n b e tw ee n funds c o mi ng fr om p r i v a t e banks on one h a n d and export cr ed it s on the other; this last a g g r e g a t e is in ge ne ra l c o n s i d e r e d by the O E C D s t a t i s t i c i a n s

as ha ving "official" n a tu re give n the role of final

gu a r a n t o r p l a y e d by the g o ve rn me nt of the c r ed it or bank; p r i v a t e non g u a r a n t e e d ex po rt cr ed it s are i n c l u d e d by the O E C D / F E D C in the (private) b a nk in g claims;

b) in the W D T wh er e the fu nd a m e n t a l s u b d i v i s i o n is be t w e e n "public and p u b l i c l y gu ar a n t e e d " and "p ri va te n o n g ua ra nt ee d" l o n g - t e r m debt, mo st c o u n t r y ta bl es do not give the d i s t i n c t i o n be t w e e n o f f i c i a l and p r i v a t e s o ur ce of e x te rn al p r iv at e n o n g u a r a n t e e d debt. T h e o n l y c o u n t r i e s for wh i c h the d e ta il is o f f e r e d are B r a z i l (for 19 80 -8 3 only), Ch i l e (1980-81 only), the D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c (1980 onwa rd s) , H o n d u r a s (id), M a u r i t i u s (some fi gures only), P a k i s t a n (id), P a r a g u a y (id), Thailand.

The O E C D figures se em t h er ef or e m o r e c o m p l e t e a l t h o u g h if one has to p a y mo re a t t e n t i o n to the p u b l i c n a t u r e of the recipient in the bo rr o w i n g c o un tr y the W B d a t a can be m o r e useful gi v e n the de tail to w h i c h the d i s t i n c t i o n b e tw ee n of fi ci al and p r iv at e so ur ce s of e x t e r n a l f i n a n c i n g is ca rr ie d (a nu mb er of ag gr egates, in cl u d i n g di sb ur s e m e n t s ,

comm it me nt s, debt o u t s t a n d i n g and di sb ur se d, are

7

c h a r a c t e r i z e d by this dist in ct io n) . It s h ou ld a l s o be 7

7. It is w o r t h s p ec if yi ng he re that in the WB /WDT, "debt

fr om o f f i ci al cr ed i t o r s comprises:

a. loans fr om in te r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s ( m u l t i la te ra l loans) [...];

b. loans fr om go ve r n m e n t s (bilateral loans) [...] and

their a g e n ci es (including ce nt ra l banks) a n d loan s fr om

a u t o n o m o u s bodies;

debt f r o m p r i v a t e cr ed i t o r s comprises: (Footnote continues on next page)

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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ad de d that in the W B / W D T there are some d i f f e r e n c e s in the b r e a k d o w n of ea ch su b- se ct or of the 'public' pa rt c o m p a r e d to the ones in the 'private' section; this can be se en fr om table no. 4. O n l y stock da ta are a v a i l a b l e w i t h this type of b r e a k d o w n .

It is al so w o r t h repo rt in g that the IMF "p ub li sh es data on the ex te rn al f i na nc in g and de bt of g o v e r n m e n t s in its

O

G o v e r n m e n t F i na nc e S t at is ti cs Y e a r b o o k " , IMF/GFY.

3. Sp ec if i c a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the di ff e r e n t na ture of the

recipient in the b o r r o w i n g c o u n t r y (public sector and

p r iv at e sector, the latter i n cl ud in g the b a nk in g s y s t e m and other p r i v a t e bodies). The p o s s i b i l i t y of b u i l d i n g time series base d on this d i s t i n c t i o n is re le va nt for a nu mb er of reasons. O n e of them is that it m a y be impo rt an t to u n d e r s t a n d the di ff e r e n t p a t t e r n s (if any, of course) of na ti on al e c o n om ic se ctors in b o r r o w i n g a b r o a d d u ri ng the va ri ou s ph as es of the b u s i ne ss cycle; an other re as on is the

p o s s i b i l i t y of ha ving mo re i n f o r m a t i o n on the future

repayment of the debt. It is clear that the n a t i on al p u bl ic sector coul d in p r i n c i p l e have m o r e i n s t ru me nt s at its *

(Footnote co nt i n u e d fr om p r e v i o u s page)

a. loans fr om suppliers: cr e d i t s from m a n u f a c t u r e r s ,

exporters, or other s u pp li er s of goods;

b. loans fr om f i na nc ia l markets: loans from p r i v a t e banks

and other p r iv at e f i na nc ia l in stitutions, an d p u b l i c l y

issued and p r i v a t e l y p l a c e d bond s or similar instruments; c. loans fr om other sources: e x t e r n a l l i a b i l i t i e s cr e a t e d th rough na t i o n a l i z a t i o n and u n c l a s s i f i e d de bt to p r i v a t e

creditors. [As it can be seen fr om table no. 4] for pr i v a t e

no ng u a r a n t e e d debt, c o n t r a c t u a l o b l i g a t i o n s of a di r e c t - invest me nt e n t e r p r i s e to a fo r e i g n p a re nt c o m p a n y or its af fi l i a t e are show n s e p a r a t e l y w h e n these da ta are reported"

(WB/WDT, 1986-87 ed., p. xxxvii).

8. R. Weaving, M e a s u r i n g De ve lo pi ng , op. cit., p. 18.

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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d i s p os al in facing payments' d i f f i c u l t i e s th an p r iv at e a g en ts not g u a r a n t e e d by the government.

The c o u n t r y tables in the O E C D / F E D C do not c a r r y such a d i s t i n c t i o n w h er ea s the da ta in the W B / W D T a l l o w to d i s t i n g u i s h b e tw ee n the p u b l i c / p u b l i c l y g u a r a n t e e d l o n g - t e r m debt fr om the pr i v a t e n o n g u a r a n t e e d one. T h e r e f o r e we do not kn ow fr om the W B / W D T the exact am ount of e x t e r n a l fu nd s that are c h a n n e l l e d to the p r i v a t e sector i n c l u s i v e of the p u b l i c l y g u a r a n t e e d part (which w o u l d g i v e the total debt c o n t r a c t e d by the na ti on al p r i v a t e sector) a n d m a y b e mo re im po r t a n t l y we do not ha ve a further s u b d i v i s i o n of the bo rr o w i n g p r i v a t e sector in ba n k s and non ba n k s for inst an ce or in even m o r e d e t a i l e d da ta sets. N e v e r t h e l e s s the W o r l d Bank fi gu re s (whose fr eq u e n c y is annual) are of i n v a l u a b l e u t il it y for the researcher.

The IMF (In te r n a t i o n a l F i na nc ia l S t a t i s t i c s , IMF/IFS), the BIS (I n t e r n at io na l Ba n k i n g D e v e l o p m e n t s , B I S / I B D and I n t e r n at io na l Ba nk in g and F i na nc ia l M a r k e t D e v e l o p m e n t s ,

B I S / I B F M D ) p u b l i s h data that link for ea ch c o u n t r y the cr ed it s a l l o w e d by the fo re ig n ba nk in g s y s t e m (d efined in two di ff e r e n t ways, however) to the d i f f e r e n t s e c t i o n s of 9

9. Both BIS p u b l i c a t i o n s ca r r y the ta bl es m e n t i o n e d in the text in a d d i t i o n to othe r i n t e r n at io na l b a n k i n g data. The d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the two st at i s t i c a l a n n e x e s (when co nf r o n t i n g the B I S / I B D J a n u a r y 1987 a n d the B I S / I B F M D Oc to be r 1987 issues) on ly c o n s is ts in the p u b l i c a t i o n of two di ff e r e n t tables: the E x t e r n a l P o s i t i o n s in E C U s of B a n k s in Indivi du al R e p o r t i n g Co un t r i e s p r e s e n t e d in the B I S / I B F M D an d the In te r n a t i o n a l A s s e t s a n d L i a b i l i t i e s of Ba nk s by N a t i o n a l i t y of O w n e r s h i p a v a i l a b l e in the BI S/IBD. F r o m now

on the i n di ca ti on B I S / I B F M D wi ll a l s o cove r the ta bl es

p r e s e n t e d in the BIS/IBD. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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the bo rr o w i n g c o u n t r y ' s e c o n o m y . 10 11 (Table no. 5)

T h e IM F/IFS (in the m o nt hl y issue a n d in the yearbook)

make a d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n c r o s s - b o r d e r i n te rb an k funds (classified bo th in "claims by r e si de nc e of le nd in g bank" and "lia bi li ti es by r e si de nc e of b o r r o w i n g bank") on one hand a n d "c ro ss -b or de r bank credit to n o n - b a n k s " (classified by resi de nc e of b o r r o w e r and by r e si de nc e of le nd in g bank) on the o t h e r . 11The s t at is ti cs w h i c h can be m o r e u s ef ul for an e s ti ma te of any d e bt or co u n t r y ' s total e x p o s i t i o n to the fo reign ba nk in g s y s t e m are ob vi o u s l y the c r o s s - b o r d e r i n t e r ­ bank l i a b il it ie s by r e si de nc e of b o r r o w i n g bank and the c r os s- bo rd er bank cr ed it to no n - b a n k s by r e si de nc e of borr ow er whos e s u m ca n be taken as an a p p r o x i m a t i o n of a

co untry (or area) e x t e r n a l ba nk in g debt. However, wh il e the

time series c o n c e r n i n g the first a g g r e g a t e can be

r e c o n s tr uc te d s t a r ti ng as earl y as 1975, the first da ta for

the s e co nd one start in 1981. Thes e IMF s e ri es a l l o w to

build a net a g g r e g a t e data by s i m p l y s u b t r a c t i n g the st at is ti cs on de bt or countries' a s se ts (in the tables cr os s-

border interbank c l a i m s by r e si de nc e of le nding bank and

cros s- bo rd er bank c r ed it to no nb an ks by re si d e n c e of lending

b a n k ) from their liabilities. It is n e c e s s a r y a l s o to add

that b a nk in g d e p o s i t s f r o m the fo re ig n n o n b a n k sector and from the d o m e s t i c no nb an k sector to the fo r e i g n b a nk in g

10. B o t h so ur ce s u s e however the 'residence' or

'territorial' c r i t e r i o n in a l t e r n a t i v e to the n a t i o n a l i t y of

bank o w n e r s h i p one, that is to say, "the da ta cover the

fo reign as se ts and li ab i l i t i e s of b a nk in g o f f i c e s in a give n set of c o un tr ie s i r r e s p e c t i v e of the n a t i o n a l i t y of their ow ne rship", R. H. Mi ll s, F o re ig n L e nd in g by Banks, op. cit., p. 684.

11. A d e t a i l e d and p r e c i s e e x p o s i t i o n of the In te r n a t i o n a l Ba nk in g S t at is ti cs (IBS) in the IM F/ IF S c a n be fo un d in The Fu nd 's I n t e r n at io na l B a nk in g S t at is ti cs by J o s l i n L a n d e l l - M i l l s , Wash in gt on , IMF, 1986 and, m u c h m o r e c o i n c i s e l y in Se ct io n 4 of the I n t r o d u c t i o n to the IFS (both the m o n t h l y

and the a n nu al edit io n) . The F u n d has i n i t i a t e d the

p u b l i c a t i o n of its in te r n a t i o n a l b a nk in g s t a t i s t i c s in 1984. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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sector sh ould be taken into account. Ho wever, it is c o mm on p r a c t i c e to ex c l u d e b a nk in g d e p o si ts f r o m the c a l c u l a t i o n of ex te rn al debt d e sp it e be in g an e x te rn al liability.

The BIS pu bl i s h e s in its B I S / I B F M D q u a r t e r l y data c o nc er ni ng the "external po si t i o n s of all re p o r t i n g banks

vi s- a - v i s i n di vi du al co un tr ie s" , w i t h the further

d i s t i n c t i o n of the b o r r o w e r ' s ec o n o m y in all s e ct or s and n o n- ba nk s e c t o r s , w h i c h of co urse a l lo ws to k n o w the si ze of ba nk in g funds that go fr om the BIS' re po r t i n g bank s to the ba n k i n g sect io ns of ea ch de bt or c o u n t r y ' s e c o n o m y (see table no. 6). M o r e o v e r the BIS q u a r t e r l y p u b l i c a t i o n in cl ud es an e s ti ma te of "e xc ha ng e rate a d j u s t e d ch an ge s" of b o t h a s s e t s and l i a b il it ie s for ea ch bo rr o w i n g c o u n t r y or g r o u p of

countries; this is p o s s i b l e be ca us e "almost all r e po rt in g

c o un tr ie s s u pp ly the BIS w i t h in fo r m a t i o n o n the c u r r e n c y 12

co mp o s i t i o n of their claims" . The a d j u s t e d a s s e t s c h an ge s s t at is ti cs c o n s t i t u t e an a p p r o x i m a t i o n of n e w flows of le nding goin g fr om the BIS repo rt in g c o u n t r i e s to v a ri ou s borrowers. The B I S c o l l ec ts the data f r o m the s u b m i s s i o n s of its re po rt in g c o u n t r i e s 1213 14 whic h m e a n s that the c o v e r a g e of the fo reign lending, ho we ve r large, is less c o m p l e t e than

14

the IMF's one . O n l y stock data are a v a i l a b l e for this type

12. R. H. Mills, F o r e i g n Le nd in g by Banks, op. cit., p. 685. 13. T h e r e po rt in g co un t r i e s are at the moment, a c c o r d i n g to

the last BIS report (October 1987): the follow in g: A u s t r i a -

De n m a r k - I r e l a n d (since D e c e mb er 1977) Belg iu m, Canada,

Luxembourg, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, F i n l a n d - N o r w a y -

Spain (Dec. 1983), Sweden, Sw it ze rl an d, the Ne t h e r l a n d s ,

U n i t e d Kingdom, U n i t e d St at es and the o f f s h o r e centres:

Bahamas, Bahrain, C a y m a n Islands, H o n g Kong, N e t h e r l a n d s

Antilles, S i ng ap or e (Dec. 1983, as a group). T h e b r a n c h e s of

US ba nk s in P a n a m a are included. E x ce pt w h e n n o t e d the

c o un tr ie s were r e po rt er s b e fo re 1975.

14. The IM F/IFS in te r n a t i o n a l b a nk in g s t a t i s t i c s d a t a are c o ll ec te d f r o m 31 majo r i n t e r n at io na l b a n k i n g c e n t e r s and from fo re ig n a s se ts a n d l i a b il it ie s of d e p o s i t ba nk s in almost 140 countries. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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of s t at is ti cs w h i c h m o r e o v e r are not d i s a g g r e g a t e d into short and long term.

The BIS p u b l i s h e s a l s o a s e m i - a n n u a l series. The M a t u r i t y D i s t r i b u t i o n of In te rn at io na l Bank L e nd in g - B I S / M D I B ), wh er e the da ta c o n c e r n i n g the " p os it io ns of all reporting bank s on c o un tr ie s o u ts id e the r e po rt in g area" are c l as si fi ed bo th a c c o r d i n g to the m a t u r i t y of the o u t s t a n d i n g claims and m o r e im po r t a n t l y here to a s u b d i v i s i o n of each

bo rrower in four sectors: banks, p u bl ic sector, no n- ba nk

pr iv at e sector a n d u n a l l o c a t e d (Table no. 7). D i f f e r e n c e s in

cl as s i f y i n g re po rt in g b a n k s 15a n d in the s t a t is ti ca l

g a th er in g of the data lead in the two BIS p u b l i c a t i o n s to d i ff er en t es t i m a t e s of the total c l ai ms that the BIS

15. T h e m a i n d i f f e r e n c e is the shift f r o m the 'territorial'

cr i t e r i o n to the "nat io na li ty of bank ownership' one; as

Mills clarifies: "after the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the BIS

semian nu al series, it b e c a m e i n c r e a s i n g l y e v id en t that its ut il it y for bank su pe r v i s i o n w o u l d be far gr eater if all reporting co un t r i e s reported, as the U n i t e d St at es d i d [in the Fe de ra l Fi na n c i a l In st it u t i o n s E x a m i n a t i o n Co un c i l ' s

Co un tr y E x p o su re L e nd in g S u r v e y ] , on a w o r l d w i d e

c o n s o l i d a t e d basis. Such a sw it ch in m e t h o d w o u l d not

gr e a t l y af fe ct the ex te nt of the co ve ra ge , si nc e the

repo rt in g banks' fo re ig n a f f i l i a t e s lay a l m o s t w h o l l y w i th in the existing, t e r r i t o r i a l l y d e f i n e d r e po rt in g ar ea to be gi n

with. However, ce nt ra l bank s a n d othe r ba nk su pe r v i s o r s

n e ed ed to kn ow the cl ai ms of their own c o m m e r c i a l banks on p a rt ic ul ar de bt or s in their totality, not o n l y at d o m e s t i c offices. In cons eq ue nc e, se ve ra l r e po rt in g c o u n t r i e s sh if te d

to c o n s o l i d a t e d r e po rt in g by D e ce mb er 1983, a n d the

remainder d i d so by De ce mb er 1984", F o r e i g n L e n d i n g by Banks, op. cit., p. 687. See a l s o Part 2. S e ct io n 3. of this w o r k . © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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r e po rt in g banks have on b o r r o w i n g c o u n t r i e s . 16

4. De ta il s of the di f f e r e n t f i na nc ia l in st r u m e n t s th rough whic h ex te rn al funds have been r e c e i v e d by the bo r r o w i n g c o u n t r y .

T h i s me an s d i s t i n g u i s h i n g b e t w e e n ba nk loans (short and

long term), issues of bonds, e x po rt cr e d i t s

(non-g u a r a n t e e d ) , suppliers' credits, othe r forms of tr ad e-

related cr ed it s and in a d d i t i o n a b r e a k d o w n of the

o f f i c i a l / o f f i c i a l l y s u p p o r t e d f i n a n c i n g in: IMF credit, Wo r l d Bank and In te r n a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t A s s o c i a t i o n (IDA)

funds, g u a r a n t e e d forms of p r i v a t e f i n a n c i n g (e.g., e x po rt credits), bi la t e r a l and other m u l t i l a t e r a l financing.

Th is b r e a k d o w n o v e r l a p s some wh at the d i s t i n c t i o n ba se d on the p u b l i c / p r i v a t e n a tu re of the le nd in g i n s t i t u t i o n s and it c a n be c o n s i d e r e d as a further, ne ce ss ar y, s p e c i f i c a t i o n of that di st in ct io n. As we sp ec i f i e d in se c t i o n 2., the W B / W D T ma ke a d i s t i n c t i o n for ea ch de bt or b e t w e e n funds co mi ng from o f fi ci al c r ed it or s ( d i s a g g r e g a t e d in M u l t i l a t e r a l - W B an d IDA - and Bi la te ra l) a n d p r i v a t e c r ed it or s (divided in s u pp li er s and f i na nc ia l m a rk et s) .

However, this d i s a g g r e g a t e d in fo rmation, a l r e a d y too

general, is a v a i l a b l e only for "p ublic an d p u b l i c l y

g u a r a n t e e d l o n g - t e r m debt". As in the ca se se en in s e ct io n 2. no d i s a g g r e g a t e d in fo r m a t i o n is a v a i l a b l e for the

16. Mo re ov er , in the BIS/MDIB, "l oa ns are c l a s s i f i e d

a c c o r d i n g to the time r e ma in in g to m a t u r i t y rather than by their o r ig in al m a tu ri ty " and "bank le nd in g is d e f i n e d to in clude not o n l y c r o s s - b o r d e r cl ai ms but a l s o c l a i m s a g a i n s t re si de nt s in no n- l o c a l c u r r e n c y (e.g., c l ai ms of f o re ig n b r an ch es of US ba nk s in US dollars)", R. W e a v in g, M e a s u r i n g De ve lo pi ng , op. cit., p. 17. For a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n on the d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n BIS q u a r t e r l y and s e m i a n n u a l reports, see R.H. Mills, F o r e i g n L e n d i n g by Banks, op. cit., p. 687. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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m a j o r i t y of bo rr o w e r s on the "private n o n - g u a r a n t e e d l o n g ­ term" side. M o r e o v e r the s h o r t - t e r m a g g r e g a t e is not

di sa g g r e g a t e d in any way. In fo r m a t i o n on the use of IMF

credit is a v a i l a b l e in the WB/WDT, e x p r e s s e d in US do l l a r s (and not in SDRs as in the IMF tables) . O n l y stock da ta are published.

The O E C D c o u n t r y ta bl es in the FE DC s h o w a hi gh er d i s a g g r e g a t i o n bo th in the se c t i o n d e v o t e d to the p r iv at e lo ng - t e r m debt - d i v i d e d in banks, bond s a n d othe r p r i v a t e -

and in the one c o n c e r n i n g the s h o r t - t e r m debt, split in

banks and ex po rt credits. Ho we ve r for this last a g g r e g a t e we are not give n the relative pr op o r t i o n s of the g u a r a n t e e d and n o n g u a r a n t e e d pa r t s of the f i na nc in g (Table no. 8).

The "public" se ct io n of the O E C D / F E D C d a t a d i s t i n g u i s h e s 17 b e tw ee n m u l t i l a t e r a l financing, o f f i c i a l ex po rt cr e d i t s ,

g u a r a n t e e d supp li er credits, g u a r a n t e e d ba nk credits,

offi ci al de ve l o p m e n t a s s i s t a n c e and IMF credit. The

OE CD / F E D C pu bl i s h e s in this case o n l y stock data.

A new O E C D p u bl ic at io n, a v a i l a b l e fr om J a n u a r y 1987 (Ex te rn al Debt S t at is ti cs : The Debt a n d Ot h e r E x t e rn al Li ab il it ie s of De ve lo pi ng , C M E A a n d ce r t a i n Ot h e r Co un t r i e s

18

and T e r r i t o r i e s , OE CD /E DS ) gives a s o m e wh at di ff e r e n t 1718

17. Incl ud ed pr i v a t e ex port cr e d i t s g u a r a n t e e d by the government. Da ta on o f f i c i a l / o f f i c i a l l y g u a r a n t e e d ex po rt cr edits come fr om the Be r n e Union, or I n t e r n a t i o n a l U n i o n of Export Cr edit a n d I n ve st me nt Insurers, w h i c h has "39 m e m b e r or ga n i z a t i o n s in 31 countr ie s, i n cl ud in g mo st of the majo r indust ri al co un tr ie s" ; the Bern e U n i o n p u b l i s h e s a q u a r t e r l y report "d is tr i b u t e d o n l y to its m e m b e r s [which] c o ve rs members' total e x p o su re to 40 countr ie s, in cl u d i n g s e l e c t e d d e v e l o p i n g co un t r i e s and m o s t co un t r i e s of E a s t e r n Europe", R. We aving, M e a s u r i n g Deve lo pi ng , op. cit., p. 18.

18. D e f i n i t i o n s a n d d e t a i l e d s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of the data p r e s e n t e d are m a d e a v a i l a b l e in the s e c o n d pa rt of the st at is ti ca l report. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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p r e s e n t a t i o n of the debt da ta s u b d i v i s i o n in d i f f e r e n t financial i n s t ru me nt s (Table no. 9). Th es e are d i v i d e d in D e v e lo pm en t Assi st an ce , no n- b a n k i n g trade cl ai ms (total and long-term), other ba nk in g c l ai ms (total a n d long-term), n o n ­ banking se ct or d e p o s i t s (which are not p a r t of the ex te rn al debt), m u l t i l a t e r a l cl ai ms (divided in c o n c e s s i o n a l and non- co ne s s i o n a l conditions, other c l ai ms a n d IMF credit). The

an nu al data, a v a i l a b l e for 1984 and 1985 (year end) can be

of so me u t i l i t y be ca us e of the e x p o s i t i o n of the s e ri es on

depo si ts c o mi ng fr om the fo re ig n n o n - b a n k i n g se ct or

(available however ev en in the IM F/ IF S w i t h a larger time span sinc e the series on " c r o s s -b or de r bank d e p o s i t s of no nb an ks by resi de nc e of bo r r o w i n g bank" star t at least fr om 1981).

T h e B I S / O E C D ' s St at is ti cs on E x t e rn al I n d e b t e d n e s s (BIS-

OECD/SEI) re ports s e m i a n n u a l l y for 159 c o u n t r i e s a

'breakdown by borr ow er of ba nk and t r a d e - r e l a t e d non- ba nk short an d long term ex te rn al c l ai ms of the r e po rt in g

countries' (Table no. 10). The fi gu re s gi ve n for the

ex ternal bank cl ai ms are the total and the p o r t i o n of identi fi ed g u a r a n t e e d cl ai ms d e fi ne d as 't r a d e - r e l a t e d ba nk claims under o f fi ci al insu ra nc e or g u a r a n t e e 1 (B I S - O E C D / S E I , Ju ly 1987, p. 8). Th e data us ed are stoc k data.

In its F i na nc ia l S t at is ti cs M o n t h l y - I n t e r n a t i o n a l M a rk et s (OECD/FSM) the O E C D p r o v i d e s i n f o r m a t i o n on mo nthly, qu ar te rl y, a n nu al flow figures c o n c e r n i n g the 'fu nd s r a i s e d on the in te r n a t i o n a l m a r k e t s ' by a l m o s t 100 c o u n t r i e s

in cl ud ed all majo r bo rr o w e r s (Tables no. 11 a n d no. 12).

This time series, w h i c h is a v a i l a b l e at least fr om 1972 w i t h 19

annual da ta , is then br ok en do wn into six subparts: 19

19. For a r e c o n s t r u c t i o n of the time s e ri es s t a r t i n g in 1972 see O E CD /F SM , no. 8, A u g u s t 1984. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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i n t e r n at io na l issues of bonds, tr ad i t i o n a l fo re ig n issues of bonds, sp ec ia l p l a c e m e n t of bonds, in te r n a t i o n a l

m e di um - and l o n g - t e r m bank loans, other i n t e r n at io na l

m e di um - and l o n g - t e r m facilities, f o re ig n m e d i u m - a n d long- 20

te rm bank loans . The O E C D M e t h o d o l o g i c a l S u pp le me nt

however warns that "i nt er n a t i o n a l b o r r o w i n g st at i s t i c s do not re late to fo re ig n de bt c o n c e p t s and, therefore, pr o v i d e

only p a rt ia l i n d i ca ti on s of ch a n g e s in the ex te rn al

inde bt ed ne ss of countries"; this is b e c a u s e "OECD da ta refer to gros s of fe r i n g s fl o a t e d on the m a r k e t d u r i n g a gi v e n

21

period". Moreover, "OECD da ta cover o n l y loans that have

been p u bl ic iz ed ", they "do not in clude loans w i t h a m a t u r i t y

up to one year", th ey refer to c o m m i t m e n t s m a d e by the

lenders at the time the lo an was si gned" (therefore "no

i n f o rm at io n is a v a i l a b l e as to the a c t u a l d r a w i n g s of the loans"), they "relate to gr o s s c o m m i t m e n t s [and] bo r r o w e r s ma y u s e such lines of c r ed it for r e pa yi ng othe r o u t s t a n d i n g

debts an d/or for r e f i na nc in g o p e r a t i o n s [and] "in these

instances neither the gros s nor the net debt e x p o s u r e of the 22

bo rr ow er increases as a result of the o p er at io n" D e sp it e 23

these rese rv at io ns these O E C D se ri es are still ab le to ca pture the basi c fe at ur es of m a i n tr en ds in i n t e r n at io na l capital m a rk et s (in p a r t i c u l a r the s h i f t i n g from the use of 20212223

20. For d e t a i l e d d e f i n i t i o n s of these a g g r e g a t e s see OECD, M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Supplement, 1985, pp. 11-17.

21. W h i c h me an s that the da ta "relev an ce as debt in di ca to rs is li mi te d insofar as no in fo r m a t i o n is a v a i l a b l e on other factors de te r m i n i n g c h an ge s in b o r r o w e r ' s b o n d e d debt, re pa ym en ts of o u t s t a n d i n g bonds in pa rt i c u l a r " (OECD, M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Supplement, op. cit.,p. 15).

22. OECD, M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Supplement, op. cit., p 15.

23. A n ot he r p r o b l e m raises fr om the fact that "a nu mb er of m e d i u m - t e r m bank loans (c la ss if ie d as ’othe r i n t e r n at io na l

facilities' are a r r a n g e d to back up ot h e r m e a n s of

financing. T o the e x te nt that these la tter b o r r o w i n g s are co vered in debt statistics, the i n c l u s i o n of bank lo an data woul d gi ve rise to s i g n i f i c a n t d o u b l e co un ti ng ", OECD, M e t h o d o l o g i c a l Su pp lement, op. cit., p. 15.

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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bank loans to the issuing of bonds an d vi ce ve rs a) in ever y c o un tr y' s b o r r o w i n g activity. A n o t h e r O E C D pu bl ic a t i o n , the q u a r t e r l y Fi na n c i a l M a rk et T r en ds (O E C D / F M T ) gi ve s d e t a i l e d info rm at io n on i n t e r n at io na l and fo r e i q n bo nd o f f e r i n g s in 24 the in te r n a t i o n a l ma r k e t s . Th e s e O E C D / F M T d a t a can c o n t r i b u t e to c l a r i f y m o r e in d e t a i l p r e s e n t and pa st t e nd en ci es w i t h i n the c a pi ta l ma rkets. I n f o r m a t i o n on some d e v e l o p i n g co u n t r i e s w h o issue their bond s in the m a r k e t s is p r o v i d e d a l t h o u g h the lack of p r e s e n t a t i o n of s p ec if ic co un tr y tables ma ke s the c o n s t r u c t i o n of s i g n i f i c a n t time series a di ff i c u l t exercise.

5. De ta il s on the m a t u r i t y s t r u c t u r e of the d e b t .

In a s s e s s i n g future s o l v e n c y of an i n d e b t e d country, k n ow le dg e of de bt m a t u r i t i e s is es se nt ia l. It o b v i o u s l y make s a great d i f f e r e n c e to m a n a g e or ev en s i m p l y to an a l y z e si tu at io ns wh e r e the am ou nt of the debt is m o s t l y to be

repaid in less than a year or s i t u a t i o n s wh e r e the

re pa ym en ts are l i nk ed to larger debt ma tu r i t i e s . 24

24. T h e s e are the most important tables p u b l i s h e d in the O E C D / F M T wh ic h c a n give mo re in fo r m a t i o n on e x t e r n a l debt issues: I n t e r n at io na l and F o re iq n Bo nd O f f e r i n g s (d ivided by all issues, in te r n a t i o n a l issues by currency, f o r e i g n issues

by market). Ea r l y R e p a y m e n t s of Bond s (by c u r r e n c y of

de no mination, by type of security, by c o u n t r y of issue).

Ex te rn al Bo nd O f f e r i n g s (with a d e t a i l e d list of bo rr ow er s) , the M a rk et for Stra ig ht Bonds (by b o r r o w e r s a n d c u r r en ci es ), the M a rk et for F l o a t i n g - R a t e Is su es (by b o r r o w e r s and cu rr en ci es ), E q u i t y - R e l a t e d Bond s (by b o r r o w e r s and curr en ci es ). E x t e r n a l Do ll ar Bond Is su es (by b o r r ow er s) , M e d i u m - T e r m B o r r o w i n g F a c i l i t i e s (by b o rr ow er s, d i v i d e d in O E C D a n d N o n - O E C D areas), In te r n a t i o n a l S y n d i c a t e d C r e d i t s by Major Bo r r o w i n g C o u n t r i e s (divided in OECD, L D C s , E a st er n Europe), E u r o - C o m m e r c i a l Paper P r o g r a m m e and othe r d e t a i l e d tables on bond issues d e n o m i n a t e d in yen, DM, Ster li ng , ECU.

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In this se ct io n we ha ve ag a i n to m a k e a d i s t i n c t i o n

b e tw ee n s t at is ti cs on debt and on i n t e r n a t i o n a l bank

lending. As far as the latter is concer ne d, the best

anal ys is is by far the one p u b l i s h e d by the B I S / M D I B (see table no. 7). This s e m i a n n u a l report in cl ud es a b r e a k d o w n of

25

BIS' re po rt in g banks' cl ai ms v i s - a - v i s a nu mb er of

g e o g r a p h i c area s d i s a g g r e g a t e d in turn in si ng le c o un tr y

,. 26

f i g u r e s .

The BIS p u b l i c a t i o n d i vi de s bank c l ai ms in three

ca te go ri es ac co r d i n g to their d i f f e r e n t m a t u ri ti es : up to

and incl ud in g one y e a r , over one year up to two y e a r s , over

two y e a r s ; in a d d i t i o n there is a l s o an e s t i m a t e of u n a l l o c a t e d funds. Th e r e are two types of da ta p r e s e n t e d in two di f f e r e n t tables for ea ch of the thre e m e n t i o n e d categories: one in p e r c e n t a g e of the total a s s e t s a n d the

other in a b so lu te va lu e (US dollars). The se ries c a n be

traced back to D e c e mb er 1977 a l t h o u g h some series

27 d e f i ni ti on s ch an ge in Dec. 1983 and in 1984.

In the O E C D / F E D C it is p o s s i b l e to find s t a t i s t i c s for each d e v e l o p i n g c o un tr y c o n c e r n i n g f o re ig n p r i v a t e bank

lending in the l o n g - t e r m a n d in the sh or t- te rm . The BIS

report is mo re d e t a i l e d in terms of m a t u r i t y b r e a k d o w n but both the O E C D and the BIS da ta are ab le to ca p t u r e a broa d range of bank loans g i v e n the large te rr i t o r i a l coverage. 252627

25. Again: the G10 co un t r i e s pl us Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, a n d fo re ig n a f f i l i a t e s of the banks in these countries.

26. D e v e l o p e d c o un tr ie s o u t s i d e the r e po rt in g area (e.g.

Australia, Greece, Norway, Portugal, Turkey,

Y u g o s l a v i a ) ,Ea s t e r n E u r o p e , O P E C c o u n t r i e s , N o n - O P E C de ve lo pi ng c o un tr ie s (further d i v i d e d in L a t i n A m e r i c a , M i dd le E a s t , A f r i c a , As ia ); in a mo re d e t a i l e d table the BIS report p r e s e n t s a l s o a "m em o r a n d u m item' c o n c e r n i n g the of fs ho re b a nk in g c e n t r e s .

27. Some part s of M D I B ta bl es a r e r e p r o d u c e d in the IMF's I n te rn at io na l C a pi ta l Markets, O c c a s i o n a l Paper, no. 43.

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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T h e IM F/ IF S IBS do not ma ke any d i s t i n c t i o n on the 28

m a t u r i t y st ru c t u r e of bank lending.

As far as fl ow da ta are co n c e r n e d (that is, n e w am ou nt s of bank lending), the O E C D / F S M p u b l i s h e s a g g r e g a t e d a t a on m e d i u m a n d l o n g - t e r m fo re ig n a n d in te r n a t i o n a l ba nk loans. No d a t a are a v a i l a b l e in this b u l l e t i n on s h o r t - t e r m l e n d i n g .

A d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n lo ng - t e r m a n d s h o r t - t e r m ex te rn al gross debt is m a d e by the O E C D in its ex ce l l e n t FEDC. However, wh i l e the l o n g - t e r m part i n cl ud es a gr e a t v a r i e t y of items (not o n l y thos e who are by d e f i n i t i o n l o n g - t e r m assets like ODA, m u l t i l a t e r a l aid financing, see table no. 8) the s h o r t - t e r m part is s i mp ly d i v i d e d b e t w e e n 'banks' and 'export credits'. In the O E C D tables the d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n long a n d s h o r t - t e r m debt starts in 1982. B e f o r e that time

29 only l o n g - t e r m da ta we re av a i l a b l e in the FEDC.

The O E C D / E D S (see table no. 9) g i v e a d i ff er en t

p r e s e n t a t i o n of the debt ag gr eg at es d i v i d e d a c c o r d i n g to the m a t u r i t y of the debt itself. The FEDC s i n g l e c o u n t r y tables are s u b s t i t u t e d by e n d - of -y ea r ta bl es re p o r t i n g a list of all d e v e l o p i n g countr ie s; it is give n for ea ch c o u n t r y a series of i n f o r m a t i o n s on: ODA, g u a r a n t e e d bank claims, de po si ts of the fo r e i g n n o n - b a n k i n g sector, m u l t i l a t e r a l 2829

28. In some IM F/ IF S c o un tr y tables (e.g. Brazil, Mexico) it

is ho we ve r p o s s i b l e to have i n f o r m a t i o n s on the l o n g - t e r m fo re ig n b o r r o w i n g of thos e se ctors of the e c o n o m y d i v i d e d ac co r d i n g to the IMF c r i t e r i a (Deposit a n d Sa vi ng s Ba nk s or C o mm er ci al Banks, etc.).

29. Th e i n t r o d u c t i o n of s t at is ti cs o n s h o r t - t e r m debt was part of the g e ne ra l r e a s se ss me nt of the O E C D tables. As

al re ad y noted, c o m p a r i s o n b e tw ee n the se ri es b e fo re and

after the ch a n g e s is in some cases a l m o s t i m po ss ib le a n d in ge neral has to be ma de w i t h great caution.

© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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claims, other claims, use of IMF cr ed it (expressed in US dollars) and, mo st i m p o r t a n t l y for our p u r p o s e s in this section, on no n- b a n k i n g c o mm er ci al c l a i m s and o n other [than the g u a r a n t e e d ones] b a nk in g claims. For these two se ri es of data we are al so gi ve n the l o n g - t e r m p o r t i o n bein g t h er ef or e able to ca lc u l a t e the s h o r t - t e r m part. At this m o me nt only the stock da ta re fe rr ed to the end of D e ce mb er 1984 a n d end of Dece mb er 1985 are available.

D e s p i t e the u s e f u l n e s s that th es e last O E C D s t at is ti cs have a n d in p a r t i c u l a r the p o s s i b i l i t y of a qu ic k an nual c r o s s - c o u n t r y co mp arison, the O E C D / F E D C si ng le c o un tr y tables s y st em seems m o r e apt to h e l p the researcher ne ed in g

info rm at io ns on ex te rn al debt matu ri ty . S u b- to ta ls on the

long- and s h o r t - t e r m debt are for in st an ce gi ve n in each co un tr y table and the FE DC l o n g - t e r m s e ct io n give s more de tails than the c o r r e s p o n d i n g pa rt of the EDS; moreover, the FE DC 's se rv ic e p a y m e n t s s e ct io n d i s t i n g u i s h e s the l o n g ­ term fi gure from the c a l c u l a t i o n of the total a l l o w i n g ther ef or e a m e a s u r e at least of the s h o r t - t e r m debt service.

The W B / W D T d i f f e r e n t i a t e total l o n g - t e r m debt fr om total s h o r t - t e r m debt but no other i n f o r m a t i o n is o f fe re d on the

c o m p o s i t i o n of the latter. Incide nt al ly , due to the

di ff e r e n t re po rt in g systems, O E C D and W o r l d Bank s h o r t - t e r m ©

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data sh ow m o r e of te n than not s i g n if ic an t d i f f e r e n c e s and the same thing can be said of lo n g - t e r m e s t i m a t e s . 30

O n e a d v a n t a g e of the W B / W D T s h o r t - t e r m d a t a is that the

series are a v a i l a b l e at least from 1978, a bit earlier

ther ef or e than the O E C D / F E D C series. A n o t h e r us ef ul

i n f o rm at io n w h i c h is p o s s i b l e to ga th er fr om the W B / W D T is the a n nu al s e ri es on the av e r a g e m a t u r i t y of new c o m m i t m e n t s (for m o r e on this poin t see se ct io n 8.); this da ta a r e gi v e n for all c r e d i t o r s a n d for o f f i ci al a n d p r i v a t e c r e d i t o r s as w e l l .

6. De t a i l s on the se rv ic e of the debt a n d on its future p r o j e c t i o n s .

The W B / W D T and the O E C D / F E D C d e vo te s e ct io ns of their an nu al c o u n t r y (and area) tables to de bt s e r v i c e st at is ti cs . Bo th so ur ce s gi ve a re levant a m ou nt of an i n f o r m a t i o n wh ic h is fu nd a m e n t a l in c a r e f u l l y e x am in in g the a c t u a l s o l v e n c y of a c o u n t r y a n d the c o n s e q u e n t p r o b l e m s for the fo re ig n c r e d i t o r s .

Th e W B / W D T tables p u b l i s h this type of s t a t i s t i c s usin g the W D T f u n d am en ta l d i s t i n c t i o n be t w e e n 'public and p u b l i c l y g u a r a n t e e d 1 and 'private n o n g u a r a n t e e d 1 l o n g - t e r m d e b t 1;

30. Th is is an e x am pl e from the O E C D / F E D C and the W B / W D T series: Ar ge n t i n a (Sh o r t - T e r m Debt, US$ M i l l i o n s ) 1982 1983 1984 1985 WB /W DT 16,521 8,076 8,644 5,953 O E C D / F E D C 12,857 13,832 12,577 7,973 © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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each of these two s e c t io ns then p r e s e n t s a s e ri es of data co nc er ni ng the fo ll o w i n g ag gr eg at es : p r i n c i p a l r e p a y m e n t s ,

interest p a y m e n t s , total debt s e r v i c e . F u rt he rm or e, these

three s e ri es are d i v i d e d in O f f i c i a l C r e d i t o r s [M ultilateral

(IBRD-IDA), Bilateral] and P r iv at e C r e d i t o r s [Suppliers,

F i na nc ia l Markets] (see tabl e no. 13). M o r e o v e r the W B / W D T gives d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on Net Fl o w s (or Net Lending) and Net T r a n s f e r s .^ T h e W B / W D T p u b l i s h a l s o for ea ch d e v e l o p i n g co un tr y its p r o j e c t i o n s on fu tu re de bt se r v i c e payments. Even these se ri es are d i s t i n g u i s h e d in a 'public' a n d a 'private' part w i t h ea ch se c t i o n fu rther d i s a g g r e g a t e d in p r in ci pa l and in terest f u tu re payments.

Th is is ov er al l a n o u t s t a n d i n g a m ou nt of i n f o r m a t i o n the use of wh ic h c e r t a i n l y goes b e y o n d the scop e of this section. Th er e are ho we ve r two p r o b l e m s w i t h the W B / W D T

series: first of all no in fo r m a t i o n is gi v e n on the am ou nt

of s h o r t - t e r m debt se r v i c e and secondly, as a l r e a d y note d in

p r e v io us sections, in mo st c o u n t r y ta bl es the figures

related to 'private n o n g u a r a n t e e d d e b t 1 are not as c o mp le te as in the ' p u b l i c 1 section.

Data p u b l i s h e d in the O E C D / F E D C of fe r i n st ea d some info rm at io n on s h o r t - t e r m debt se r v i c e p a y m e n t s and in pa rt ic ul ar on the a m o u n t of in te re st p a y m e n t s do ne ev er y

32

year by the b o r r o w i n g country. M o re ov er , in fo r m a t i o n is given on a m o r t i za ti on , l o n g - t e r m d e b t , interest, l o n g - t e r m

31. T h e former d e f i n e d as

repayments' an d the latter

minu s the su m of p r i n c i p a l minu s total debt service' x x x v i i ) . 32. Th is se ri es b e gi ns term debt. 'd is bu rs em en ts mi n u s pr in c i p a l i d e n t i f i e d as ' d i s bu rs em en ts and in te re st pa ym en ts , that is (WB/WDT, 19 86 -8 7 edition, p. in 1982 like all O E C D d a t a on sh or t-© The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

(29)

debt and on r e pa ym en ts re la te d to IMF credit. T h e s u m of thes e last three a g g r e g a t e s plus the inte re st on s h o r t - t e r m debt give s the total se rv ic e p a ym en ts (i nc lu de d IMF credit) aggregate. (Table no. 14)

T h e O E C D / F E D C d i s a g g r e g a t e s l o n g - t e r m de bt s e r v i c e data ev en in an ot he r wa y that reprod uc es the 'Gross Debt' c o u n t r y table structure: p a y m e n t s to O E C D c o u n t r i e s a n d ca pi ta l m a r k e t s [ODA, O f f i c i a l / O f f . supported. F i n a n c i a l Ma rk et s, Ot he r Private], M u l t i l a t e r a l , N o n - O E C D C r e d i t o r C o un tr ie s. This d i s a g g r e g a t i o n is not ca r r i e d to the po i n t of in cl u d i n g

for ea ch s u bs ec to r da ta on 'amortization' or 'interest

payments' an d th er e f o r e in this re sp ec t W o r l d Bank

34

s t at is ti cs can be c o n s i d e r e d m o r e us eful. Then, in this as in other cases seen before, one source of da ta do es not ne ce s s a r i l y e x c l u d e the other; if a c h o i c e is to be m a d e it de p e n d s bo th on wh at d a t a ha ve been u s e d in e s t i m a t i n g total gros s debt or its d i s a g g r e g a t e d i n f o r m a t i o n s a n d o n the qu e s t i o n s one w i s h e s to address."^5

Finally, the IM F/ WE O (October 1987 ed,), in its table

D e v e l o p i n g Co un tr ie s: E x t e rn al Debt an d De bt Service, 1979-

8 8 , in cludes an e s t i m a t e of se rvice p a y m e n t s for 1988

a l t h o u g h the e x e r c i s e is c a rr ie d out for the d e v e l o p i n g c o un tr ie s as a w h o l e a n d for some g e o g r a p h i c and e c o n o m i c 333435

33

33. The W o r l d Bank does not pu b l i s h the s e ri es on IMF c r ed it re pa ym en ts w h i c h are of co ur se a v a i l a b l e in m a n y IMF p u bl ic at io ns , in p a r t i c u l a r in the S u p p l e m e n t on Fund A c c o u n t s (p ub li sh ed in 1984, w i t h se ri es d a t i n g ba ck to the 1947 -1 95 2 pe riod) a n d in the an nu al and m o n t h l y IFS.

34. M o r e o v e r T h e O E C D / F E D C does not g i v e a n y e s t i m a t e of Net Flows, Net T r a n s f e r s a n d on p r o j e c t e d l o n g - t e r m debt s e r v i c e . 35. For instance, i n f o r m a t i o n on s h o r t - t e r m de bt s e rv ic e p a ym en ts can be c r uc ia l in c o r r e c t l y e s t i m a t i n g the d e b t / s e r v i c e ra ti os a n d in that case o n l y O E C D d a t a c a n be of some help. © The Author(s). European University Institute. version produced by the EUI Library in 2020. Available Open Access on Cadmus, European University Institute Research Repository.

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