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DOES DEFLATION METHOD MATTER FOR PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES? Gi orgi o Garau P at ri zi o Lecca Luci a Sc hi rru

WORKING PAPERS

2 0 0 9 / 0 1 C O N T R I B U T I D I R I C E R C A C R E N O S

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I l C R E N o S è u n c e n t r o d i r i c e r c a i s t i t u i t o n e l 1 9 9 3 c h e f a c a p o a l l e U n i v e r s i t à d i C a g l i a r i e S a s s a r i e d è a t t u a l m e n t e d i r e t t o d a S t e f a n o U s a i . I l C R E N o S s i p r o p o n e d i c o n t r i b u i r e a m i g l i o r a r e l e c o n o s c e n z e s u l d i v a r i o e c o n o m i c o t r a a r e e i n t e g r a t e e d i f o r n i r e u t i l i i n d i c a z i o n i d i i n t e r v e n t o . P a r t i c o l a r e a t t e n z i o n e è d e d i c a t a a l r u o l o s v o l t o d a l l e i s t i t u z i o n i , d a l p r o g r e s s o t e c n o l o g i c o e d a l l a d i f f u s i o n e d e l l ’ i n n o v a z i o n e n e l p r o c e s s o d i c o n v e r g e n z a o d i v e r g e n z a t r a a r e e e c o n o m i c h e . I l C R E N o S s i p r o p o n e i n o l t r e d i s t u d i a r e l a c o m p a t i b i l i t à f r a t a l i p r o c e s s i e l a s a l v a g u a r d i a d e l l e r i s o r s e a m b i e n t a l i , s i a g l o b a l i s i a l o c a l i . P e r s v o l g e r e l a s u a a t t i v i t à d i r i c e r c a , i l C R E N o S c o l l a b o r a c o n c e n t r i d i r i c e r c a e u n i v e r s i t à n a z i o n a l i e d i n t e r n a z i o n a l i ; è a t t i v o n e l l ’ o r g a n i z z a r e c o n f e r e n z e a d a l t o c o n t e n u t o s c i e n t i f i c o , s e m i n a r i e a l t r e a t t i v i t à d i n a t u r a f o r m a t i v a ; t i e n e a g g i o r n a t e u n a s e r i e d i b a n c h e d a t i e h a u n a s u a c o l l a n a d i p u b b l i c a z i o n i . w w w . c r e n o s . i t i n f o @ c r e n o s . i t C R E NOS – CA G L I A R I VI A SA N GI O R G I O 1 2 , I - 0 9 1 0 0 CA G L I A R I, IT A L I A T E L. + 3 9 - 0 7 0 - 6 7 5 6 4 0 6 ; F A X + 3 9 - 0 7 0 - 6 7 5 6 4 0 2 C R E NOS - SA S S A R I VI A TO R R E TO N D A 3 4 , I - 0 7 1 0 0 SA S S A R I, IT A L I A T E L. + 3 9 - 0 7 9 - 2 0 1 7 3 0 1 ; F A X + 3 9 - 0 7 9 - 2 0 1 7 3 1 2 T i t o l o : D O E S D E F L A T I O N M E T H O D M A T T E R F O R P R O D U C T I V I T Y M E A S U R E S ? I S B N : 9 7 8 - 8 8 - 8 4 6 7 - 5 0 4 - 0 P r i m a E d i z i o n e : M a r z o 2 0 0 9 © CUEC 2009 V i a I s M i r r i o n i s , 1 0 9 1 2 3 C a g l i a r i T e l . / F a x 0 7 0 2 9 1 2 0 1 w w w . c u e c . i t

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1

Does deflation method matter for productivity

measures?

Giorgio Garau

University of Sassari and CRENoS Patrizio Lecca *

Lucia Schirru**

Abstract

In this paper, we disagree on the opportunity to use the double deflation method to produce an equilibrating system of account at a constant price. In fact, by relaxing such a condition, by means of the single deflation method, we obtain a measure of purchasing power transfer that can be decomposed in productivity and market distortion. Results are presented for the evolution of the Italian economy for the periods 1995-2002.

Keywords: National Account, Prices Index, Total Factor Productivity, Input Output.

JEL Classification: C67, L16, O41. 1.

Introduction

At the present, the national statistic institutes prefer to pursue the manageable double deflation approach producing as a result an equilibrating system of accounts at constant prices. The main intention of this paper is, instead, to provide a comprehensive framework to support the idea according to which a constant price system of account is in nature imbalance.

Whilst double deflation is consistent with the balancing rule, some objections arise if we consider that relative price change might reflect change in productivity. Indeed, when the purpose is an account system at constant prices the application of the usual methods might hide some important processes that the analysis of constant prices figures would al-

*University of Cagliari and Strathclyde Business School (Scotland, UK). **University of Sassari.

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low, as e.g. the effect of technical progress. In the main body of this pa-per, we attempt to justify our thesis using several contributions that im-plicitly or exim-plicitly sustain this view. In doing so, we also pay attention to the complementarities between constant prices measures and produc-tivity transfers among agents. As far as we know, the economic literature has often treated separately the technical change generation from the dis-tribution of productivity gains among economic agents. We begin with the seminal Fontela’s (1989) work that set up the distributional rule of productivity gains in the input output context, ending up with an exten-sion that identify a measure of surplus called Purchasing Power Transfer (PPT) originally developed by Garau (1996). This measure is given by the productivity gains and the market surplus generated by extra-profit con-dition derived from rental position detained by agents. Such a decompo-sition is very useful from our point of view since it would provide in-formation about the degree of non-competitiveness in different markets.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In the next section we deal with some basic concepts of constant price measures in the National Accounts and in section 3, we show the drawbacks of using the double deflation method. In section 4 we compute and understand Fontela’s model of Total Factor Productivity Surplus (TFPS) with an application to the case of Italy, while in section 5, the theoretical explanation of the PPT comes with the explanation of the results we have obtained. Finally, some concluding remarks close the discussion.

2. Basic concepts of constant price measures in the National Account

The Handbook on Price and Volume Measures in National Account (European Commission, 2001) defines a constant price system of ac-counts as an economic situation for a particular year, expressed in the price of another year. A system of account, either in constant or current prices, should respect the accounting constraint, that is to say, total sup-ply and total use should be equal for each product and for each industry. Such an accounting constraint is considered by the Handbook as an im-portant advantage because it allows comparison and consistency among different estimates.

Three methods are available to produce a system of account at cur-rent prices: the revaluation method, the quantity extrapolation method, and the

deflation method. Whilst the first two are based on quantity indexes, the

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The revaluation method consists in collecting direct physical quantities and values using base year prices. This approach, albeit very powerful and meaningful, is very demanding because it requires direct observation of physical quantities. Actually, it is especially adopted for agricultural products and for goods produced for own final use. In the quantity

ex-trapolation method a quantity indicator obtained by a quantity index is used

to update the base year value. The deflation approach is recommended by the SNA93 and ESA95 to develop constant-price transactions for a ho-mogenous good or service. It means to divide each period’s current price values with appropriate price indexes. This approach, unlike the others, is very straightforward and furthermore it allows for an easier adjustment to account for quality changes. Indeed, the two methods based on quan-tity index might improperly allocate quality changes to changes in price and as it has been pointed out in ESA95 the changes in characteristics have to be recorded as changes in quantities and not as changes in prices.

The SNA requires the use of two separated approach to produce con-stant price measures for the value of final goods and services: the

expendi-ture approach and the output or double deflation approach. According to the

first one, for each component of the final demand, constant price meas-ures are separately produced. The second one, instead, consists in deter-mining constant price measures separately for gross output and interme-diate inputs for each industry in the economy. So the GDP can be seen from the expenditure side as the aggregated constant price measures of the final demand, whilst from the output side it can be seen as the differ-ence between gross output and intermediate inputs1.

Although the SNA recommend deriving constant price estimates from both sides (output and expenditure) official statistics usually report only the result obtained from the production side. This is because the GDP calculated from the output side is often different from the one cal-culated from the expenditure side.

The SNA advise the use of alternative methods when the data re-quired for constant price estimates of both output and intermediate con-sumption are not available. Such methods might be single deflation or single extrapolation.

1 In addition to the expenditure and output approach the GDP at constant prices can also be obtained from an income side approach. However, when we move into a constant prices context only output and expenditure measures can be used since the income measure of GDP would re-quire a direct observation of its components, both labour income and operative surplus. While the former is, to some extent, directly observable, the latter is usually determined as a residual.

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Single deflation means to deflate the value added at current prices us-ing directly the producer price index which measures the price-changes of the output. The extrapolation method is based on indicators that re-flect the movements in the volume changes of the industries inputs. Such inputs might be employment, labour-inputs, intermediate con-sumption or total inputs (weighted average of labour and intermediate inputs). Basically, the value added of the previous period is multiplied by an extrapolator indicator. This technique is mainly used to deflate value added in the financial sector and in the non-tradable sector.

An alternative method to the ones proposed by the SNA93 has been formalized in Durand (1994). Starting from the property that the real value-added of commodities delivered to final demand must be equal to the sum of the real values added by industries, he produces a value added matrix, industries x commodities, whose sum in row give the value added of the final demand while the sum in column gives the value added by industries. This allows for consistency between the value added seen from the side of expenditure (final demand) and the value added seen from the side of output (or production). Firstly, Durand obtains the value added matrix in current prices and then by deflating each column of the matrix by the corresponding commodity price he obtains the value added matrix at constant prices. So, each cell of the value-added matrix represents the contribution of a specific industry to the real value-added of a given commodity.

In recent literature, a quite interesting method to derive constant price measures has appeared. This method developed by Rampa (2008) begins with the assumption that the constant price estimates reported in the official statistics, such as the chained real value added time series and price and quantity indexes are not very accurate. Quantity and price in-dexes are not consistent with each other for certain periods or sectors and the real value added series is not as smooth as expected. Thus, Rampa (2008) proposes a subjective weighted least square estimation (SWLS) for the deflation of a yearly series of current price IO table for Italy.

3. Double deflation and productivity analysis

The double deflation method albeit widely used has been strongly criti-cized in the economic literature as it provides a measure of the net out-put of industries only under extremely restrictive assumptions. This method is in fact feasible only for constant price estimates which are

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ditive, such as those calculated using a fixed-base price index. Further-more, the use of the double deflation could hide some important process behind economic growth such as technical progress.

Although the double deflation allows one to produce an equilibrating system of account even at constant prices, we argue that such a con-straint might produce some important disadvantages. While the use of such a method can be accepted in current prices, some doubts arise as to whether a constant price measure has to be constructed. Essentially, we disagree on the requirement to produce an equilibrating system of ac-count when we move into a constant prices framework since we believe that we might lose some important effects concerning economic growth such as efficiency, rent spillovers and all those elements that may con-cern disembodied technical change.

A single deflation procedure, instead, would allow one to determine a measure of productivity gains (Flexner, 1959, Fontela, 1989, Babeau, 1994 and Garau, 1996) and to understand the generating process of eco-nomic growth.

Furthermore, the use of a constant price method not only gives us the opportunity to obtain information about the internal generation process of productivity but also the external determinant of growth that are be-hind the effect of change in the terms of trade, if, of course, proper in-dex prices are used to deflate imports and exports. This would yield quite interesting result since the literature on economic growth has now rec-ognized the role of knowledge spillovers as the most important driving forces behind economic growth. As knowledge is incorporated in com-modities, trade with high technological countries means high quality and sophisticated inputs (either intermediate or capital goods), that improve efficiency and in turn the competition among regions. Such a potential finding has been identified in Flexner’s original paper (1959) and esti-mates of external rent spillovers may be found for the Swiss economy in Antille and Fontela, (2003).

Let us suppose to have for a given period t:  and, ,  and, ,  and, ,  and, ,  and, ,  and,  ; the matrix of intermediates flows, a vec-tor of labour income, the capital return, the import flows, the final de-mand and export dede-mand respectively in current and constant prices. According to the accounting constraint both the following equations must hold:

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 +  +  +  =  +  +  ( 1 )  +  +  +  =  +  +  (1a ) where is a unit vector. Now, as we cannot observe , the value added ( + ) must be of course obtained as a residual. However if we were able to deflate every single item of EQ. (1) including  or at least to find a proper deflator for the value added as a whole, it would be quite plau-sible that the equilibrating relationship represented in EQ. (1a) does not hold.

As pointed out by Flexner (1959) even though we were able to remove all the statistical discrepancies due to calculation and statistical approxi-mations, EQ. (1a) would be inadequate to represent constant price rela-tionship since whenever productivity change arises between base year values and current values, this must be reflected in a balancing item in EQ. (1a).

Accordingly, we may argue that a well defined system of account may provide a measure of productivity resulting from the difference between the amount of goods produced and the amount of inputs of production used. Such a measure will take positive value only if the quantity varia-tion of the output is greater than the variavaria-tion of all inputs. Therefore, the relationship in EQ. (1a) must not hold and the balancing term has a precise economic meaning, which is called by Fontela (1989), Total Fac-tor Productivity Surplus (TFPS):

 ∙ +  +  +  +  =  +  +  ( 1a′)

4. The transfer of productivity gains

Fontela (1989) calls the differences between output and inputs, both measured at constant prices, TFPS:

, = !,",#∙ $,", " − !",,#∙ $",, " ( 2 )

where , corresponds to the amount of real resource flows be-tween time t and time 0, $,", is the flow of output of sector i towards sector j and !,",# is the market price to its base year value.

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Since ' !" ,",∙ $,",= ' !" ",,∙ $",,, the expression (2) can be re-written in terms of price variations as follows (Fontela, 1989):

,= − $,",∙ (!,", "

− !,",#) + $",,∙ (!",, "

− !",,#) ( 2.1 )

Whereas EQ. (2) measures the creation of TFPS using the index num-ber approach, EQ. (2.1) can be interpreted as a distributional rule of TFPS. As it is self-evident such a distribution depends on the price varia-tions of outputs (first element on the right hand-side) and inputs (second element on the right hand-side) and can be transposed into the tradi-tional IO context if the entire accounting system in current and constant price is available. For a given period, t, the following definition of TFPS can be considered:

 = ) + *

+ *+ *+ − ( + *+ *) ( 3 )

where - is a unit vector, [/,"] =  − , *[/1] =  − , *[/2] =  −  , *[/3] =  − , *[/4] =  −  and *[/5] =  −  .

By considering a given year t:

• /," > 0, it means that industry j is transferring surplus to the

in-dustry i,; and the reverse applies when /,"< 0, that is to say, in-dustry j is paying relatively less for the inputs provided by inin-dustry i. Particularly interesting is the net industry contribution: /9,=

' /" ",− ' /" ,". When /9, > 0, industry i is transferring surplus

to the rest of the economy more than it is gaining from all other sectors.

• Industry i is transferring surplus to its primary inputs when, /2

and /1, are positive.

• When the price of commodity is falling, industries are transferring additional surplus to consumers making /4 < 0

• From the trade side, we have an inflow of productivity gains from the Rest of the World when /5 > 0 and /3 < 0. And, the re-verse applies when /5 < 0 and /3 > 0. Then we can com-pute, as in Fontela et al. (2003), the net outflow /3− /5 > 0 or net inflow in the opposite situation, /3− /5 < 0.

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4.1 The distribution process of the TFP surpluses: the case of Italy for the period

1995-2002. The analysis of the TFPS is carried out for the period

1995-2002 for the Italian economy. The index prices are shown in Table 1. In-dex prices for consumption, production, imports and exports are sup-plied by ISTAT (2008a) whilst index price for labour, capital and invest-ment are deflators obtained from the Italian System of National Accounts (ISTAT, 2008b). The symmetric Italian Input-Output, is ob-tained from the Make and Use Table for the year 2002, published by ISTAT (2008c).

The results are shown in Table 2. From the last column of this table, we see that the total amount of TFPS is negative, meaning that in the pe-riod 1995–2002, the Italian economy is not able to generate TFP gains and also to create an available surplus to be transferred through a reduc-tion in sales prices to the consumers and investors.

The figures also show that the rate of return of one factors of produc-tion, paradoxically increases albeit inefficiency in production (negative innovation gains). Indeed, the rate of return to capital raises whilst the real wage rate fall, reflecting that production activities are transferring TFPS to capital and absorbing TFPS from labour. These results, we be-lieve, are the consequences of the national labour market reform under-taken in 1993 (Income Policy Agreement) which has generated a high la-bour-capital conflict ending up giving advantage to capital and increase the labour market flexibility2 and so leading to reduce the bargaining power of workers and the purchasing power of wages.

2 The work of Devicienti et al. (2007) shows that, after the national labour market reform, wages became more flexible since they are now more responsive to local unemployment. Before the re-form wages were set within a centralized bargaining with automatic indexation of wages to the real inflation. The reform has, instead, introduced a new bargaining system. The centralized bar-gaining process still remains in order to set the industry wide national wage, but with indexation to the Government’s target inflation (which is always lower than the real inflation). The addi-tional wage distributed to the workers (or the top up component) is now set according to the firm and regional conditions.

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T A B L E 1 P ri c e I n d e x 2 0 0 2 b a se 1 0 0= 19 9 5 P ro d u ct io n C o n su m p ti o n E xp o rt Im p o rt In v e st m e n t C a p it a l La b o u r A g ri co lt u re , fo re st ry a n d f is h in g 1 0 9 .6 0 1 0 9 .6 0 1 1 9 .6 7 8 8 .6 2 1 .1 8 1 .0 6 1 .1 3 M in in g a n d Q u a rr y in g 1 1 1 .9 0 1 1 1 .9 0 1 0 4 .9 3 1 6 9 .9 4 0 .9 6 1 .3 4 1 .2 7 M a n u fa ct u re o f fo o d p ro d u ct s, b e v e ra g e s a n d t a b a cc o 1 0 9 .3 0 1 1 7 .2 8 1 0 8 .0 2 9 7 .2 8 1 .0 5 1 .2 0 1 .1 8 M a n u fa ct u re o f te xt il e s a n d w e a ri n g a p p a re a l 1 0 9 .6 0 1 2 0 .8 0 1 1 5 .8 0 1 1 3 .0 0 0 .9 6 1 .0 7 1 .2 5 M a n u fa ct u re o f le a th e r a n d r e la te d p ro d u ct s 1 1 6 .4 0 1 2 6 .8 0 1 4 1 .3 4 1 1 8 .4 3 1 .4 3 1 .0 9 1 .2 9 M a n u fa ct u re o f w o o d a n d w o o d p ro d u ct s 1 0 4 .1 0 1 0 4 .1 0 9 5 .6 4 9 5 .8 7 1 .3 2 1 .0 3 1 .3 6 M a n u fa ct u re o f p a p e r a n d p a p e r p ro d u ct s 9 5 .3 0 9 5 .3 0 9 3 .4 8 7 5 .9 9 1 .2 6 1 .3 8 1 .2 2 M a n u fa ct u re o f p ri n ti n g a n d r e p ro d u ct io n o f re co rd e d m e d ia 1 1 8 .2 0 1 1 8 .2 0 9 3 .4 8 7 5 .9 9 1 .2 6 1 .3 8 1 .1 6 M a n u fa ct u re o f co k e a n d r e fi n e d p e tr o e lu m p ro d u ct s 1 1 7 .0 0 1 1 7 .0 0 1 9 8 .7 5 1 6 6 .2 4 1 .1 3 1 .3 0 1 .2 7 M a n u fa ct u re o f ch e m ic a ls a n d p h a rm a ce u ti ca l 1 0 7 .6 0 1 0 7 .6 0 9 0 .4 7 9 3 .5 8 1 .2 0 1 .1 0 1 .2 7 M a n u fa ct u re o f ru b b e r a n d p la st ic p ro d u ct s 1 0 5 .6 0 1 0 5 .6 0 9 6 .5 1 9 5 .4 4 1 .1 7 1 .1 8 1 .2 5 M a n u fa ct u re o f o th e r n o n -m e ta ll ic m in e ra l p ro d u ct s 1 1 9 .8 0 1 1 9 .8 0 1 0 7 .0 7 1 0 6 .3 5 1 .4 5 1 .1 9 1 .1 9 M a n u fa ct u re o f fa b ri ca te d m e ta l p ro d u ct s, e xc e p t m a ch in e ry a n d e q u ip m e n t 1 0 3 .4 0 1 0 3 .4 0 9 2 .1 4 8 8 .4 7 1 .4 2 1 .1 3 1 .2 2 M a n u fa ct u re o f m a ch in e ry a n d e q u ip m e n t 1 1 3 .3 0 1 1 3 .3 0 1 1 6 .1 4 1 2 0 .0 7 0 .9 9 1 .1 3 1 .2 5 M a n u fa ct u re o f e le tr ic a l e q u ip m e n t 1 0 3 .3 0 1 0 3 .3 0 1 0 6 .9 8 1 0 6 .5 4 1 .1 4 1 .2 8 1 .2 1 M a n u fa ct u re o f tr a n sp o rt e q u ip m e n t 1 1 3 .0 0 1 1 3 .0 0 1 1 1 .6 9 1 1 7 .6 1 0 .8 4 1 .0 9 1 .2 0 O th e r m a n u fa ct u ri n g 1 1 5 .3 0 1 1 5 .3 0 1 1 3 .4 5 1 1 1 .4 8 1 .1 6 1 .1 0 1 .3 2 E le ct ri ci ty , G a s a n d w a te r su p p ly 1 2 6 .1 0 1 2 6 .1 0 1 2 6 .1 0 8 2 .7 2 1 .0 6 1 .1 6 0 .9 9 C o n st ru ct io n 1 1 6 .4 8 1 1 6 .4 8 1 1 6 .4 8 9 7 .2 8 2 .1 5 1 .2 6 1 .1 7 W h o le sa le a n d R e ta il t ra d e ; R e p a ir o f M o to r v e h ic le s a n d m o to rc y cl e s 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .5 2 1 .3 0 1 .3 8 A cc o m o d a ti o n a n d f o o d s e v ic e a ct iv it ie s 1 2 6 .8 0 1 2 6 .8 0 1 2 6 .8 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .6 4 1 .3 5 1 .3 8 T ra n sp o ra ti o n a n d s to ra g e 1 1 3 .3 0 1 1 3 .3 0 1 1 3 .3 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .2 9 1 .3 3 1 .1 6 F in a n ci a l a n d I n su ra n ce a ct iv it ie s 1 5 8 .9 4 1 5 8 .9 4 1 5 8 .9 4 9 7 .2 8 1 .0 6 1 .0 7 1 .0 9 R e a l e st a te a ct iv it y 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .1 2 1 .1 4 0 .9 0 S ci e n ti fi c re se a rc h a n d d e v e lo p m e n t 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .1 2 1 .1 4 1 .4 1 Le g a l, a cc o u n ti n g , m a n a g m e n t a n d o th e r p ro fe ss io n a l a ct iv it ie s 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .1 2 1 .1 4 1 .1 7 P u b li c a d m in is tr a ti o n a n d d e fe n ce ; C o m p u ls o ry s o ci a l se cu ri ty 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 1 1 8 .8 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .3 6 1 .1 3 1 .0 3 E d u ca ti o n 1 1 9 .5 0 1 1 9 .5 0 1 1 9 .5 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .4 2 1 .2 8 1 .0 0 H u m a n h e a lt s e rv ic e s 1 2 1 .3 0 1 2 1 .3 0 1 2 1 .3 0 9 7 .2 8 1 .6 6 1 .2 2 1 .1 0 O th e r se rv ic e a ct iv it ie s 1 1 5 .3 4 1 1 5 .3 4 1 1 5 .3 4 9 7 .2 8 1 .9 1 1 .3 3 1 .2 0

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gains innovation spillovers from the Rest of the World (ROW). How-ever, the capacity of the Italian economy to gain from terms of trade im-provement is not able to offset the negative and domestic productivity performance. This gives us a picture of an economic system where con-sumers (Government and Households) and investors have to give up part (or all) of their TFPS to pay a high price for consumption and capi-tal goods, respectively.

From a sectoral investigation we understand that Mining and Quarrying and Manufacture of Transport Equipment are those sectors able to generate the highest TFP gains. However, these sectors act a different distribution process of the TFPS.

Mining and Quarrying is able to distribute just a minimum part of its TFP

gains since in this sector the rate of return to capital and the real wage rate increase, and its position with the rest of the world is weak. Indeed, we see that about 77% of the TFPS is absorbed by the rest of the world through an increase in the cost of imports (144, is the price index). Fur-thermore, the overall position with respect to the ROW is negative. Sub-stantially, under the period in analysis, this sector has suffered of nega-tive term of trade with the results of a net outflow of TFP surpluses (8084).

With regards to Manufacture of Transport Equipment, the total surplus available for distribution (10550) is greater than the innovation gains generated (10393). This is happening because Manufacture of Transport Equipment, is not only able to generate TFP surpluses but, at the same time, is also able to lower its cost through a reduction in the overall cost of primary inputs (22) and take advantage of positive spillovers from im-ports. On the other hand, the distribution process gives advantages to more investors (9415) and the ROW (1570) by a fall in the price of capi-tal goods and exports, respectively.

The worst performance in term of innovation gains is coming from

Construction and Financial and Insurance Activities. In the former sector, not

only the TFPS is negative (49380) but also there is a net transfer of pur-chasing power toward primary inputs which is going to advantage only capital. Albeit the net benefit from the ROW is positive, this is not able to cover the rise in the price of value added and the negative TFPS, meaning that Construction is a sector that has a strong rental position in the market, absorbing as a consequence TFP surpluses from the final

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T A B L E 2 . T h e d is tr ib u ti o n o f T F P s u rp lu se s in I ta ly , 1 9 9 5 -2 0 0 2 ; v a lu es i n m il li o n s o f E u ro s Ag ric olt ur e, fo re str y a nd fi sh in g Min in g a nd Q ua rry in g Ma nu fa ctu re o f f oo d p ro du cts , b ev er ag es a nd ta ba cc o Ma nu fa ctu re o f t ex til es a nd w ea rin g a pp ar ea l Ma nu fa ctu re o f l ea th er a nd re la te d p ro du cts Ma nu fa ctu re o f w oo d a nd w oo d p ro du cts Ma nu fa ctu re o f p ap er a nd p ap er p ro du cts Ma nu fa ctu re o f p rin tin g a nd re pr od uc tio n o f r ec or de d m ed ia Ma nu fa ctu re o f c ok e a nd re fin ed p etr oe lu m pr od uc ts Ma nu fa ctu re o f c he mic als a nd p ha rm ac eu tic al Ma nu fa ctu re o f r ub be r a nd p la sti c p ro du cts Ma nu fa ctu re o f o th er n on -m eta lli c m in er al pr od uc ts Ma nu fa ctu re o f f ab ric ate d m eta l p ro du cts , e xc ep t m ac hin er y nt me ip qu d e an Ma nu fa ctu re o f m ac hin er y a nd e qu ip me nt Ma nu fa ctu re o f e le tri ca l e qu ip me nt Ma nu fa ct ur e o f t ra ns po rt e qu ip me nt Ot he r m an ufa ctu rin g Ele ctr ic ity , G as a nd w ate r s up ply Co ns tru cti on Wh ole sa le a nd R eta il tra de ; R ep air o f M oto r v eh ic le s a nd s le yc rc to mo Ac co mo da tio n a nd fo od s ev ic e a cti vit ie s Tr an sp or ati on a nd s to ra ge Fin an cia l a nd In su ra nc e a cti vit ie s Re al es ta te a cti vit y Sc ie nti fic re se ar ch a nd d ev elo pm en t Le ga l, ac co un tin g, ma na gm en t a nd o th er p ro fe ss io na l es iti tiv ac Pu bli c a dm in is tra tio n a nd d efe nc e; Co mp uls or y s oc ia l y rit cu se Ed uc ati on Hu ma n h ea lt se rv ic es Ot he r s er vic e a cti vit ie s To ta l To ta l T FP S [a ] -2 61 8 10 51 2 -1 70 3 -6 96 -3 07 0 98 3 30 20 -3 74 -1 68 33 10 33 55 -2 95 66 20 57 80 54 82 10 39 3 -6 73 -6 38 2 -4 93 80 43 17 -3 19 5 91 83 -2 55 02 -7 01 1 15 54 -4 40 7 -9 17 8 -8 95 0 -5 40 6 19 87 -6 25 13 Lo w er in g( -) /in cr ea si ng r( +) th e co st o f p rim ar y in pu ts {b = [b 1+ b2 +b 3] } -2 90 8 47 9 27 1 -4 94 -6 9 -7 9 66 7 75 8 23 7 83 30 9 13 2 17 2 49 8 11 97 -2 2 10 9 -1 42 8 20 18 14 23 2 56 58 48 05 -4 75 7 -5 70 3 22 76 -1 92 1 -8 45 7 -8 29 0 -2 34 2 13 64 -1 20 5 La bo ur [b 1] -3 88 10 8 -9 72 4 33 1 35 7 91 -8 8 78 62 8 32 5 51 72 0 10 15 37 4 17 4 64 0 -1 18 7 -1 27 66 14 28 30 -6 11 -2 47 3 -6 93 26 56 -3 29 -7 64 9 -8 99 4 -3 04 1 45 8 -7 41 4 C ap ita l [ b2 ] -2 52 3 37 1 28 2 -1 22 3 -4 02 -4 37 57 4 84 4 14 8 -5 53 -1 8 74 -5 56 -5 24 81 8 -1 98 -5 33 -2 63 21 34 75 90 28 25 53 84 -2 31 3 -5 01 9 -3 83 -1 60 9 -8 44 69 6 67 1 89 4 59 10 N et T ax es [b 3] 3 1 -2 5 1 1 2 1 10 8 2 7 9 6 4 3 2 22 12 28 4 32 29 9 3 16 36 7 29 11 29 9 -0 .7 7 P os iti ve /N eg at iv e sp ill ov er s fro m Im po rt [c ] 3 0 3 1 -8 08 4 3 9 8 9 6 2 4 -2 3 7 8 3 3 1 9 4 4 9 3 -1 5 5 4 93 81 1 3 2 4 3 2 9 82 18 -3 6 4 3 8 0 1 13 6 2 6 6 8 2 0 8 0 1 4 5 1 8 6 1 2 4 8 9 9 4 7 1 2 2 8 5 7 3 1 8 1 5 0 2 2 0 3 0 6 36 13 8 To ta l a va ila bl e fo r d is tri bu tio n {a +[ -b ]+ c} 33 21 19 49 20 16 42 2 -3 02 4 18 46 55 47 -6 39 -1 95 9 12 60 8 43 69 -9 8 14 66 5 49 19 80 86 10 55 0 -5 17 -4 13 4 -5 13 19 -8 46 4 -7 99 2 68 67 -1 97 98 -7 9 -1 49 -6 71 -7 21 -6 37 -3 06 3 92 9 -2 51 71 D is tri bu tio n P ro ce ss Lo w er in g (+ ) o r i nc re as in g (-) p ric es fo r i nt er m ed ia te in pu ts [d ] 25 47 17 98 54 0 49 7 -3 83 14 70 37 69 -1 02 5 -8 44 28 99 19 19 -9 10 98 32 -3 00 5 32 58 -1 32 4 -1 54 2 -3 02 4 -1 68 2 -2 81 7 -3 11 8 42 76 -1 19 09 28 7 -6 06 -7 77 -5 3 14 2 -6 77 46 1 0 Lo w er in g( +) o r i nc re as in g( -) p ric es fo r c on su m er s [e ] 83 4 0 33 1 -7 00 -6 03 13 1 68 8 -1 2 11 7 17 69 30 4 -2 9 18 0 18 6 13 67 88 9 27 0 -1 09 3 85 -1 04 4 -4 87 3 23 44 -6 94 5 -6 91 -5 1 -5 2 -6 68 -7 78 -2 38 6 81 2 -9 62 0 Lo w er in g (+ ) o r i nc re as in g (-) p ric es fo r i nv es to rs [f ] -1 90 -1 24 14 2 -2 -6 8 -1 -1 6 18 -3 5 -7 8 -1 26 2 69 04 10 37 94 15 13 1 0 -4 97 26 -4 45 4 0 -2 91 0 34 6 51 8 21 5 0 0 0 -3 64 -3 75 68 Lo w er in g (+ ) o r i nc re as in g( -) th e pr ic e of e xp or t [ g] -5 9 59 12 69 48 3 -2 03 6 31 3 10 91 41 4 -1 25 0 79 43 21 41 91 9 59 14 83 5 24 24 15 70 62 4 -1 7 5 -1 49 -1 53 9 -9 44 -2 1 -1 1 -5 7 0 0 0 19 22 01 7 To ta l d is tri bu tio n {d +e +f +g } 33 21 19 49 20 16 42 2 -3 02 4 18 46 55 47 -6 39 -1 95 9 12 60 8 43 69 -9 8 14 66 5 49 19 80 86 10 55 0 -5 17 -4 13 4 -5 13 19 -8 46 4 -7 99 2 68 67 -1 97 98 -7 9 -1 49 -6 71 -7 21 -6 37 -3 06 3 92 9 -2 51 71 N et o ut flo w (-)/i nf lo w (+ ) { c-g} 30 90 -8 14 4 27 20 14 1 20 13 47 0 21 03 79 -3 04 14 38 -8 17 -5 90 23 03 -1 19 9 13 78 -1 43 4 -3 58 83 7 75 15 99 86 2 19 51 18 90 12 50 58 4 18 72 0 22 1 28 7 14 12 1

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tion in the cost of primary inputs and positive external spillover from imports. Nevertheless, the total surplus available for distribution still re-main negative (19798) with the consequences that consumers and inves-tors have to pay a high price for consumption and capital goods, respec-tively.

If we just consider the net outflow or inflow of TFP surpluses, the best performance is experienced by Agricultural, Forestry and Fishing, for which we have a total net inflow of TFP gains (3090). Indeed, the related price index for imports is equal to 75.10 while the price index for export is 101.41 with an improvement of the terms of trade. On the contrary, the worst external performance is for Mining and Quarrying that experience a deterioration of the terms of trade (import price index is equal to 144.08 while the export price index is 88.92).

5. The purchasing power transfer (PPT)

In EQ. (2.1), the computation of the TFPS is obtained through market prices. We may decompose the market price p;,<, as follows:

!,",#= !,",#∗ + !,",#∗∗

where !,",#∗ , is the price we would have if the agents present in the mar-ket were not able to gain from rental positions. It means a situation where the prices of all sectors adjust to their productivity and the rate of productivity growth is the same in all sectors. That is to say, a situation in which extra profits are zero and there is not modification of relative prices. !,",#∗∗ , is instead an index of market bias, that identify the presence of extra-profits and those agents that are in the position to gains from market imperfection.

Substituting the definition of market price in EQ. (2.1), we have that:

,= − $,",)!,",− !,",#∗ − !,",#∗∗ + + $",,)!",,− !",,#− !",,#∗∗ + "

"

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13

Furthermore, with some simple adjustment, the EQ. (4) can be re-written ascribing to the TFPS and to the following decomposition the meaning of a measure of Purchasing Power Transfer (PPT):

,= − $,",)!,",− !,",#∗∗ + " ?@@@@@@@A@@@@@@@B C + $,",!,",#∗ " ?@@@A@@@B D + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗∗ + " ?@@@@@@A@@@@@@B E − $",,!",,#∗ " ?@@@A@@@B F (5)

The market price indexes, !,", allow us, through EQ. (2.1), to compute the overall purchasing power transfers (PPT). With the decomposition process, in EQ. (5), we can distinguish the technological performance of each sector (TFP), that is to say, the difference between the terms 4 and 2 on the right side of EQ. 5, and a measure of the alteration of the natu-ral market mechanisms, given by difference between terms 3 and 1 on the right side of EQ. 5.

With regards to the TFP component, the difference between real out-puts and real inout-puts should be computed using ideal price index or prices consistent with the neoclassical framework (Wolf, 1985 and 1989). This measure reflects the welfare gains of innovations that allow sector i, to increase its outputs faster than its inputs between time 0 and t, if

' $" ,",!,",#∗ − ' $" ",,!",,#∗  > 0.

The market component of the PPT decomposition is given by (1) and (3): HIJ15K LJ!2L/ = − $,",)!,",− !,",#∗∗ + " ?@@@@@@A@@@@@@B C + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗∗ + " ?@@@@@@A@@@@@@B E

The difference between these two terms can be interpreted as redistribu-tion among the different economic agents of the market power gener-ated through changes of the prices of inputs and outputs. If !,", <

!,",#∗∗ then the industry is losing bargaining power and it is transferring

part of its purchasing power to its customers (intermediate producers or final users) by supplying its products at a lower relative price. Accord-ingly, the relative price of output of an industry decrease and the term (1)

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will become positive. If !",, > !",,#∗∗ , the industry is transferring part of its purchasing power to its suppliers since is paying relatively more for its intermediate and primary inputs. This means that the term (3) will be-come negative.

With regards to the computation of the measure of TFP in EQ. (5), we adopt Divisia price indexes or their discrete approximation given by Tornqvist (or Translog) chain index:

!"∗= M NJ," C J,"#O C DPQR,STUQR,SVW 9UD XC

where J are the inputs prices, (n intermediate inputs and 2 primary in-puts) and Y# (YC) are input shares, at constant prices, per unit of output for the two periods (the first, 1 and the last, 0). If current price values are deflated by their Törnqvist price index, the relative transfers reflect the effects of technical change. Indeed, in the neoclassical perfect competi-tion context, it is recommended for consistency to use Tornqvist-Divisia indexes for the measurement of TFP (Wolff, 1989 and Fontela, 1994).

In order to compute the total measure of PPT, we should also calculate the Market Surplus (MS) through the distortionary price !",,#∗∗ . However, we do not have such price index. Then, in order to compute the MS component of EQ. 5, we can use the definition of the market price seen above, )!,",#− !,",#∗ = !,",#∗∗ +. This also means that MS can be easily obtained as residual.

According to EQ. 5, if PPT;,\> 0, the sector i is transferring purchas-ing power to the rest of the economy, through a reduction in the market power and an increase in TFP. While if PPT;,\ < 0 the sector i is absorb-ing resources from the rest of the economy. We may distabsorb-inguish differ-ent situations: ,> 0, ] ^ ^ ^ _ ^ ^ ^ `a− $,",)!,",− !,",#∗∗ + " + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗∗+ " b > 0 ; a $,",!,",#∗ " − $",,!",,#∗ " b > 0 d1e a− $,",)!,",− !,",#∗∗ + " + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗∗+ " b > 0 ; a $,",!,",#∗ " − $",,!",,#∗ " b < 0 d2e a− $,",)!,",− !,",#∗∗ + " + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗∗+ " b < 0 ; a $,",!,",#∗ " − $",,!",,#∗ " b > 0 d3e f

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15

In d1e sector i is distributing purchasing power through an increase in ef-ficiency (TFP>0) and through a reduction in their market power, MS>0. Basically, the market is imposing to sell their goods to a lower relative price. For case d2e, the PPT is positive although the generic sector i is experiencing loss of efficiency (TFP<0). Indeed, the negative productiv-ity impact is totally offset by an increase in the transfer of purchasing power to the rest of the economy through a loss of market power. In d3e, the capacity to transfer purchasing power of sector i is partially off-set by negative market imperfections meaning that the market conditions allow this sector to absorb resources from the rest of the economy. However, the net transfer of purchasing power is positive.

For the case of PPT<0, we can have:

,< 0, ] ^ ^ ^ _ ^ ^ ^ `a− $,",)!,",− !,",#∗ + " + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗ + " b < 0 ; a $,",!,",#∗∗ " − $",,!",,#∗∗ " b < 0 d1′e a− $,",)!,",− !,",#∗ + " + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗ + " b > 0 ; a $,",!,",#∗∗ " − $",,!",,#∗∗ " b < 0 d2′e a− $,",)!,",− !,",#∗ + " + $",,)!",,− !",,#∗ + " b < 0 ; a $,",!,",#∗∗ " − $",,!",,#∗∗ " b > 0 d3′e f

Considering the situation d1′e, the sector absorbs purchasing power from the rest of the economy because of negative productivity and favourable market distortion. For d2′e, the reduction of the market power is not enough to cover the negative impact in term of productivity. In the last situation d3′e, the sector i, overall, absorb resources from the other sec-tors. Here, essentially, the appropriations of purchasing power through the exploitation of their rental position overwhelm the capacity to gener-ate TFP.

5.1. TFP and Market surpluses in Italy, for the period 1995-2002. The results of the operations are presented in Table 3. The first column is the differ-ence between terms (2) and (4) of EQ. (5), whilst the second one is the difference between the terms (1) and (3) of the same equation. The last column is the total effect.

With regards to the manufacturing sectors, the best performance in terms of TFP is in the Manufacture of Fabricated Metal Products and in the Manufacture of Chemicals and Pharmaceutical. Manufacture of Fabricated Metal

Products, is not only able to increase its productivity but also to increase

the overall PPT, through a reduction of its market surplus (MS>0), meaning that it is giving up purchasing power to the rest of the system.

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On the contrary, for Manufacture of Chemicals and Pharmaceutical, the capac-ity to generate productivcapac-ity is partially offset by an increase of its market power.

What is interesting is the position of the Manufacture of Machinery and

Equipment, and Manufacture of Transport Equipment that lose productivity

but, at the same time, give up part of their market power allowing the system to regain PPT.

The manufacturing sectors that, more than other, experience an in-crease in its market power, is the Manufacture of Coke and Refined Petroleum Products. Its strong market position overwhelms the capacity to transfer purchasing power in terms of TFP.

From the side of services it is worth noting that some public services such as Public Administration and Defense, Education and Human Health

Ser-vices, albeit the real outputs is greater than the real inputs, the

distortio-nary market conditions prevent a redistribution through a favorable change in prices.

Also for Electricity, Gas and Water supply, we have the same kind of situa-tion. By and large, it follows that an increase in TFP in a given sector of the economy is not necessarily leading to a decrease of its relative market prices, nor a decrease in its market power. Since our analysis takes in consideration the period 1995-2002, it is quite possible that we are not able to capture the effect of the liberalization of the electricity supply that started in Italy at the beginning of 2000. Two years (2000-02) may not be enough to produce positive effect. From a liberalization policy we would expect not only an increase in TFP, but also a transfer of purchas-ing power to the rest of the system, given that a more competitive mar-ket in energy supply should lead to a decrease in its relative price change.

Construction and Financial activities not only have negative performance in

terms of productivity but they also increase their purchasing power by increasing their relative price.

In conclusion, we can say that the capacity to generate productivity does not automatically produce downward pressure on relative prices. There is not a mechanics process according to which positive innovation gains corresponds to an increase in the purchasing power of workers or capitalists, nor to a transfer of resources to consumers. Indeed, the total PPT available for distribution depends on the rule of distribution that in turn is the result of the structure of different markets. Prices in the mar-ket might be different from the ones we would expect in a perfect com-petitive market. So an industry may adjust its selling price increasing its purchasing power that is to say, enlarging the gap between the actual

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17

market price and the ideal price. The same might occurs for instance in the market of labour or capital. Specifically, it is the combination of the degree of distortion in the market that determines the rule of distribution of the PPT.

Table 3 Total Factor Productivity and Market Surpluses in Italy, 1995-2002, in millions of Euros

6. Conclusion

In this paper we have highlighted the importance of adopting a single de-flation method as the necessary approach to produce a system of eco-nomic account at constant price that is in equilibrium only if it accounts for productivity gains. Furthermore, with a well-defined system of ac-count at constant price, we are able to produce a productivity model that

TFP MS PPT=TFPS

Agricolture, forestry and fishing 4182 -6800 -2618

Mining and Quarrying -11495 22007 10512

Manufacture of food products, beverages and tabacco 547 -2249 -1703

Manufacture of textiles and wearing appareal -153 -543 -696

Manufacture of leather and related products -665 -2405 -3070

Manufacture of wood and wood products 717 266 983

Manufacture of paper and paper products 2239 781 3020

Manufacture of printing and reproduction of recorded media -135 -239 -374 Manufacture of coke and refined petroelum products 2776 -2944 -168

Manufacture of chemicals and pharmaceutical 4727 -1417 3310

Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 432 2922 3355

Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 287 -582 -295 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 5933 687 6620

Manufacture of machinery and equipment -2468 8249 5780

Manufacture of eletrical equipment -507 5989 5482

Manufacture of transport equipment -3827 14220 10393

Other manufacturing 22 -695 -673

Electricity, Gas and water supply 3699 -10081 -6382

Construction -2425 -46955 -49380

Wholesale and Retail trade; Repair of Motor vehicles and motorcycles -16472 20789 4317

Accomodation and food sevice activities -6010 2815 -3195

Transporation and storage -4399 13581 9183

Financial and Insurance activities -1034 -24467 -25502

Real estate activity 2808 -9819 -7011

Scientific research and development -2402 3955 1554

Legal, accounting, managment and other professional activities 658 -5066 -4407 Public administration and defence; Compulsory social security 7172 -16350 -9178

Education 6858 -15808 -8950

Human healt services 905 -6311 -5406

Other service activities -1747 3734 1987

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allows one to understand the distribution of purchasing power among agents.

Such a model could be very helpful for policy makers, since it gives a picture of the inter-industry diffusion and distribution of the welfare gains of innovations, that might be used to reorient economic priorities and managing the process of price adjustment when, for instance, the industrial policy take the form of selective subsidies. Indeed, public in-vestment in a give sector might not produce the expected positive out-come if this industry does not transfer part of its purchasing power to the rest of the system. So, selective subsidies can be oriented to correct-ing distortions or imperfections in the market mechanism or addressed towards those progressive sectors that have a sufficiently high rate of in-novation and operate, transferring massive welfare gains to the rest of the economy.

In our point of view, there is also scope for further development. Spe-cifically, the analysis of the distributional rule of the TFPS can also be in-tegrated in the Leontief multiplier in order to capture the impact of the policy in terms of distributions of innovation gains. Yet a cost-linkage function can be constructed in order to improve our understanding of the mechanism of price adjustment.

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08/22 F a b i o C e r i na , S a uv e ur G i a n n o ni “P o l l u ti o n A d v e r se T o u r i st s a nd G r o w t h”

08/21 C a r i n a H i r sc h ,G i ov a n n i S ul i s “Schooling, Production Structure and Growth: An Empirical Analysis on Italian Regions”

08/20 F a b i o C er i na , F r a nc esc o M ur ed d u “ Ag gl o m e r a ti o n a nd G r ow t h wi t h E nd og e n ou s Ex pe d i t u r e S ha r e s ” 08/19 D i m i t r i P a o li n i “ S c r e e ni n g a nd s ho r t – te r m c o n tr a c t s” 08/18 Ma ss i m o D e l G a t t o , A d r i a na D i L i b er t o a nd C a r m el o P e t r a g l i a “ Me a su r i ng P r o d u c ti v i ty ” 08/17 E d oa r d o Ot r a nt o “ Id e n ti f y i n g F i na nc i a l T i m e S e r i e s wi t h S i m i l a r D y na m i c C ond i ti o na l C or r e l a t i o n ” 08/16 R i na ld o B r a u, R a ffa e le D or o nz o , C a r lo V . F i o r i o a nd M a s s i m o F l o r i o “ G a s I nd u s tr y R e f or m s a nd C o ns u m e r s ’ P r i c e s i n t he Eu r o pe a n U ni o n : a n E m p i r i c a l A na l y si s ” 08/15 Ol i v i er o A . C a r b o ni “ T he Ef f e c t o f R & D S u b si d i e s o n P r i v a te R & D : E v i d e nc e f r om I ta l i a n Ma nu f a c tu r i n g D a t a ” 08/15 Ol i v i er o A . C a r b o ni “T he Ef f e c t s of G a r l et t o “ G e tt i n g ou t of th e c a r . An i n s ti t u ti o na l / e v ol u ti o na r y a p p r oa c h to s u s ta i n a b l e tr a n sp or t p ol i c i e s" 08/14 G e r a r d o Ma r l et t o “ G e tt i n g ou t of t he c a r . A n i n s ti tu t i o na l / e v ol u ti o na r y a p pr oa c h t o su s ta i na b l e tr a n sp or t p ol i c i e s" 08/13 F r a nc e sc o L i s i , E d oa r d o Ot r a nt o, “ C l u ste r i n g Mu tu a l F u nd s by R e tu r n a nd R i s k L e v e l s ” 08/12 A d r i a na D i L i b er t o , F r a nc e sc o P i g l i a r u, P i er g i or g i o C h el uc c i , “I nte r n a t i o n a l T F P D y na m i c s a nd H u m a n C a pi ta l S t oc k s: a P a ne l D a t a A na l y s i s , 1 9 6 0 - 2 0 0 3” 08/11 G i org i o G a r a u, P a t r i z i o L ec c a , “ I m pa c t A na l y si s of R e g i o na l K n o wl e d ge S u b si d y : a C G E A p pr oa c h” 08/10 E d oa r d o O t r a nt o , “A s se t Al l oc a t i o n U si n g F l e x i bl e D y n a m i c C or r e l a ti o n M o d e l s w i t h R e g i m e S wi tc hi n g” 08/09 C o nc et t a Me nd o li c c h i o , D i m i t r i P a o li n i , Ti t o P i et r a , “I n v e st m e nt s I n Ed u c a t i o n I n A T w o - S e c to r , R a nd om Ma tc hi ng Ec on o m y ” 08/08 S t ef a n o U sa i , “ I n no v a t i v e P e r f or m a nc e of O e c d R e g i o n s” 08/07 C o nc et t a Me nd o li c c h i o , Ti t o P i e t r a , D i m i t r i P a o li ni , “H u m a n C a pi ta l P ol i c i e s i n a S ta t i c , T w o- S e c t or Ec o n om y w i t h I m pe r f e c t Ma r k e t s” 08/06 V a n i a S t a t z u, E l i s a b e t t a S t r a z z er a , “ A pa ne l d a ta a na l y s i s of e l e c tr i c c o n su m p ti o n s i n t he r e si d e n ti a l se c t or ” 08/05 Ma r c o P i t z a l i s , I sa b el la S u l i s , M a r i a n o P or c u , “ D i f f e r e nc e s of C u l t u r a l C a p i t a l a m o n g S tu d e n t s i n T r a n si ti o n t o U n i v e r si ty . S om e F i r s t S u r v e y Ev i d e nc e s” 08/04 I sa b el la S ul i s , M a r i a n o P o r c u , “As se s si n g the Ef f e c t i v e ne ss o f a S t oc ha st i c R e gr e s si o n Im pu t a ti o n Me t h od f o r O r d e r e d C a t e g or i c a l D a t a ” 08/03 Ma n u el e B i c e g o , E nr i c o G r o s s o , E d o a r d o O t r a nt o , “R e c o g ni z i ng a nd F or e c a s ti ng the S i g n of F i n a nc i a l L oc a l T r e nd s U s i ng H i d d e n Ma r k o v M od e l s”

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Finito di stampare nel mese di Marzo 2009 Presso Editoria&Stampa

Zona Industriale Predda Niedda str. n. 10 – Tel. 079.262236 – Fax 079.262221

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