Economic parameters in the evaluation studies focusing on building energy efficiency : a review of the underlying rationale, data sources, and assumptions

(1)

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Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.

The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling

Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor

temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast

I. Andrić

a,b,c

_{*, A. Pina}

a

_{, P. Ferrão}

a

_{, J. Fournier}

b

_{., B. Lacarrière}

c

_{, O. Le Corre}

c a_{IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal}

b_{Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France}

c_{Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France}

Abstract

District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the

greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat

sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,

prolonging the investment return period.

The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand

forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665

buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district

renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were

compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.

The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications

(the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation

scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered).

The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the

decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and

renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the

coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and

improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and

Cooling.

Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.

10.1016/j.egypro.2018.11.179

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect

Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18,

19–21 September 2018, Athens, Greece

Economic parameters in the evaluation studies focusing on

building energy efficiency: a review of the underlying

rationale, data sources, and assumptions

Sergio Copiello

a

_*

a_{IUAV University of Venice, Dorsoduro 2206, 30123 Venice, Italy}

Abstract

A growing literature has highlighted the variables and parameters that most affect the technical feasibility and the

economic viability of the measures meant to improve building energy efficiency. This paper discusses the results of a

literature review, which focuses on the studies that deal with three economic parameters: the price to be paid for the

energy supply, the energy inflation rate, and the discount rate used to convert future cash flows to a present value,

namely, an upfront lump-sum equivalent. A specific co-occurrence analysis of terms is performed on the titles and

abstracts of the examined documents. The representation of the results allows recognizing several significant clusters

and network relationships. Moreover, that literature review enables to identify two well-established research strands.

The first involves the relationship between energy prices and the profitability of efficiency-related investments. The

second research branch points at the pivotal role played by the discount rate when evaluating the investments in

energy-efficient measures.

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

)

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,

Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.

Keywords: Building energy efficiency; Energy price; Inflation rate; Discount rate

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 041 257 1387; fax: +39 041 257 2424. E-mail address: copiello@iuav.it

10.1016/j.egypro.2018.11.179

© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

)

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,

Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.

1876-6102

ScienceDirect

Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18,

19–21 September 2018, Athens, Greece

Economic parameters in the evaluation studies focusing on

building energy efficiency: a review of the underlying

rationale, data sources, and assumptions

Sergio Copiello

a

_*

Abstract

A growing literature has highlighted the variables and parameters that most affect the technical feasibility and the

economic viability of the measures meant to improve building energy efficiency. This paper discusses the results of a

literature review, which focuses on the studies that deal with three economic parameters: the price to be paid for the

energy supply, the energy inflation rate, and the discount rate used to convert future cash flows to a present value,

namely, an upfront lump-sum equivalent. A specific co-occurrence analysis of terms is performed on the titles and

abstracts of the examined documents. The representation of the results allows recognizing several significant clusters

and network relationships. Moreover, that literature review enables to identify two well-established research strands.

The first involves the relationship between energy prices and the profitability of efficiency-related investments. The

second research branch points at the pivotal role played by the discount rate when evaluating the investments in

energy-efficient measures.

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

)

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,

Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.

2 Sergio Copiello / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

1. Introduction

The issue of building energy efficiency has gained interest during the last years and, more broadly, over a time

span of four decades or so [

1] (Fig. 1

). Energy efficiency is a prominent topic on the agenda due to the need of taking

fuel consumptions under control and reducing their environmental impact. Under this framework, the construction

sector plays a pivotal role because buildings largely contribute to primary energy demand and consumption, as well

as to greenhouse gas emissions [

2-4]. Concerning the evaluation of the measures aiming at improving building energy

efficiency, a growing literature is available. The results of several field studies, although sometimes conflicting, have

the merit of having highlighted the variables and parameters that most affect the technical feasibility and the economic

viability of those measures. As far as the latter is concerned, a summary list of the most influential parameters should

include, at least, the following items [

1,5]: contingent and long-term geo-climatic conditions [6,7]; building type and

physical characteristics of the constructions [

8,9]; consumers’ preferences and occupants’ behavior [10-13]; prices of

energy supply and their changes over time [

14-16]; investment costs to be incurred and the corresponding expected

return and payback time [

17-19].

Fig. 1. Growing interest for building energy efficiency (source: Google Ngram Viewer).

This paper aims to present the results of a systematic literature review, with regard to the studies that use economic

parameters to assess the feasibility of energy efficiency measure in the building industry. The literature review

purposely focuses on the following three economic parameters: the price to be paid for the energy supply; the inflation

rate, especially as far as energy sources are concerned; the discount rate used to convert future values to present values,

so to calculate the upfront lump-sum equivalent of the expected cash flows.

The structure of this paper is as follows. The next section describes the source used to gather information and the

method followed to identify the relevant literature. The subsequent paragraph provides an overview of the results,

with specific reference to these issues: topics addressed in the studies, data sources, and estimated values or

assumptions as far as the economic parameters are concerned. A further part of the text is devoted to identify and

discuss two main, well-established research strands: the role played by energy prices in techno-economic evaluations

is the former, the prominence of the discount rate in the same evaluations is the latter. Finally, the last section draws

the conclusions.

2. Method

The literature review discussed in this study is based on bibliographic research, which has been performed using

the indexing and abstracting database Scopus, provided by Elsevier. Although some limitations and other issues are

known to affect the selected source [

20-23], it has been chosen due to its wider coverage in comparison to others such

(2)

Sergio Copiello / Energy Procedia 157 (2019) 180–192 181

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect

Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18,

19–21 September 2018, Athens, Greece

Economic parameters in the evaluation studies focusing on

building energy efficiency: a review of the underlying

rationale, data sources, and assumptions

Sergio Copiello

a

_*

Abstract

A growing literature has highlighted the variables and parameters that most affect the technical feasibility and the

economic viability of the measures meant to improve building energy efficiency. This paper discusses the results of a

literature review, which focuses on the studies that deal with three economic parameters: the price to be paid for the

energy supply, the energy inflation rate, and the discount rate used to convert future cash flows to a present value,

namely, an upfront lump-sum equivalent. A specific co-occurrence analysis of terms is performed on the titles and

abstracts of the examined documents. The representation of the results allows recognizing several significant clusters

and network relationships. Moreover, that literature review enables to identify two well-established research strands.

The first involves the relationship between energy prices and the profitability of efficiency-related investments. The

second research branch points at the pivotal role played by the discount rate when evaluating the investments in

energy-efficient measures.

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

)

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,

Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.

ScienceDirect

Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy, Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18,

19–21 September 2018, Athens, Greece

Economic parameters in the evaluation studies focusing on

building energy efficiency: a review of the underlying

rationale, data sources, and assumptions

Sergio Copiello

a

_*

Abstract

A growing literature has highlighted the variables and parameters that most affect the technical feasibility and the

economic viability of the measures meant to improve building energy efficiency. This paper discusses the results of a

literature review, which focuses on the studies that deal with three economic parameters: the price to be paid for the

energy supply, the energy inflation rate, and the discount rate used to convert future cash flows to a present value,

namely, an upfront lump-sum equivalent. A specific co-occurrence analysis of terms is performed on the titles and

abstracts of the examined documents. The representation of the results allows recognizing several significant clusters

and network relationships. Moreover, that literature review enables to identify two well-established research strands.

The first involves the relationship between energy prices and the profitability of efficiency-related investments. The

second research branch points at the pivotal role played by the discount rate when evaluating the investments in

energy-efficient measures.

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

)

Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Technologies and Materials for Renewable Energy,

Environment and Sustainability, TMREES18.

2 Sergio Copiello / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

1. Introduction

The issue of building energy efficiency has gained interest during the last years and, more broadly, over a time

span of four decades or so [

1] (Fig. 1

). Energy efficiency is a prominent topic on the agenda due to the need of taking

fuel consumptions under control and reducing their environmental impact. Under this framework, the construction

sector plays a pivotal role because buildings largely contribute to primary energy demand and consumption, as well

as to greenhouse gas emissions [

2-4]. Concerning the evaluation of the measures aiming at improving building energy

efficiency, a growing literature is available. The results of several field studies, although sometimes conflicting, have

the merit of having highlighted the variables and parameters that most affect the technical feasibility and the economic

viability of those measures. As far as the latter is concerned, a summary list of the most influential parameters should

include, at least, the following items [

1,5]: contingent and long-term geo-climatic conditions [6,7]; building type and

physical characteristics of the constructions [

8,9]; consumers’ preferences and occupants’ behavior [10-13]; prices of

energy supply and their changes over time [

14-16]; investment costs to be incurred and the corresponding expected

return and payback time [

17-19].

Fig. 1. Growing interest for building energy efficiency (source: Google Ngram Viewer).

This paper aims to present the results of a systematic literature review, with regard to the studies that use economic

parameters to assess the feasibility of energy efficiency measure in the building industry. The literature review

purposely focuses on the following three economic parameters: the price to be paid for the energy supply; the inflation

rate, especially as far as energy sources are concerned; the discount rate used to convert future values to present values,

so to calculate the upfront lump-sum equivalent of the expected cash flows.

The structure of this paper is as follows. The next section describes the source used to gather information and the

method followed to identify the relevant literature. The subsequent paragraph provides an overview of the results,

with specific reference to these issues: topics addressed in the studies, data sources, and estimated values or

assumptions as far as the economic parameters are concerned. A further part of the text is devoted to identify and

discuss two main, well-established research strands: the role played by energy prices in techno-economic evaluations

is the former, the prominence of the discount rate in the same evaluations is the latter. Finally, the last section draws

the conclusions.

2. Method

The literature review discussed in this study is based on bibliographic research, which has been performed using

the indexing and abstracting database Scopus, provided by Elsevier. Although some limitations and other issues are

known to affect the selected source [

20-23], it has been chosen due to its wider coverage in comparison to others such

(3)

that constitute the focus of this study - namely, energy price, energy inflation rate, and discount rate - the search string

used here is as follows:



( ALL ( “Building energy efficiency” ) AND TITLE-ABS-KEY ( “Energy price” ) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY (

“Inflation rate” ) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY ( “Discount rate” ) ).

In other words, a general key expression (“building energy efficiency”) is adopted to define the boundaries of the

analysis. That key is used to search all the abstracting database fields. In addition, three specific expressions (“energy

price”, “inflation rate”, and “discount rate”) are adopted to refine the search within titles, abstracts, and keywords.

The search returns a result of 65 published items. That number does not reflect the whole amount of studies that,

somehow, make use of the three analyzed parameters. Indeed, several other indexed documents base their analysis on

economic parameters without explicitly reporting them in the abstract or among the keywords. As a case in point, let

us consider that searching for the three key expressions (“energy price”, “inflation rate”, and “discount rate”) in all

the abstracting database fields - without limiting the search to titles, abstracts, and keywords - would produce 188

results. However, I take into account the 65 results of the search string mentioned above relying on the assumption

that mentioning an economic parameter in the abstract or among the keywords reveals that it takes on high significance

in the research work and the related publication.

It deserves mentioning a partial overlap of the results (

Fig. 2

). Although most of the analyzed studies deal only

with the parameter of the energy price or, in a subordinate position, exclusively with the discount rate, a certain number

of publications consider two parameters (i.e., the energy supply cost and the discount rate, or the energy inflation rate

and, again, the discount rate). Other few studies present empirical applications, if not even theoretical reflections,

which involve all the three parameters considered here.

Fig. 2. Summary of the bibliographic search in Scopus.

The items are characterized by a publication window of about two decades, from 1996 to 2018. However, only two

articles date back to the late nineties, while all the other documents have been published after the year 2007. What is

more, nearly 70% of the documents have been authored during the last five years. Concerning the publication venue,

the results are mostly journal articles (72%) and conference papers (23%), while only three (5%) are book chapters.

As far as the publication outlets are concerned, the journal Energy and Buildings hosts nine articles, eight other papers

have been published in Energy Policy, and five each in Energy and Journal of Cleaner Production.

3. Summary of the results

Tables 1 to 4

summarize the results (in chronological order) by reporting, for each study, the publication venue,

the economic parameter(s) considered, and the synthetic description of the topic. Besides, the number of citations (as

of April 2018) is meant to act as a proxy of the attention gained, although a low number of citations is likely to

characterize the studies published in the last couple of years. In absolute terms, the most cited study is that authored

by Newell, Jaffe, and Stavins (test of the Hicks’s induced innovation hypothesis on energy-using consumer durables),

published in 1999 in The Quarterly Journal of Economics [

28]. Other highly-cited documents are those by Zhao, Li,

and Ma (decomposition analysis of urban energy consumptions in China) and by Kumbaroğlu and Madlener

(evaluation of optimal retrofit investment options using Monte Carlo simulation), both published in 2012 [

37,38]. Out

of the 65 analyzed studies, nine are not included in the tables due to their limited relevance, namely, the fact that they

only incidentally deal with at least one of the economic parameters which this study focuses on.

Table 1. Summary of the results (first part). Economic parameter Year First author and

reference Venue (1) Energy price Inflation rate Discount rate Topic Citations 1996 Levine, M.D.

[27] ja x Gap between energy prices and the full costs of energy production due to subsidies, which disincentive investments in energy efficiency

7 1999 Newell, R.G.

[28] ja x The relationship between product innovation and energy price in the field of energy-using consumer durables

377 2008 Scott, M.J. [29] ja x Net savings of the US building energy efficiency

programs considering UN IPCC warming scenarios (reduced need for heating and increase in space cooling demand)

12

2009 Cao, J. [30] ja x Influence of the energy price on the economic viability of a retrofit measure, showing that contradictions affect China’s energy price system

9 2009 Wu, Y. [31] cp x Energy prices are among the parameters to consider for

the building energy management to be effective and efficient

2 2010 Parfomak, P.W.

[32] bc x Policies need to address the energy price risks: uncertainty about future energy prices hinders the assumption of investment decisions about building efficiency

0

2010 Zwettler, G.

[33] cp x Energy costs are among the parameter considered in an optimization software meant to assist the design of energy efficient buildings

2 2011 Jeong, J. [34] ja x Heating energy usage patterns in the light of the

substitute/complementary relationship between gas and electricity and according to energy price and household characteristics

13

2011 Ouyang, J. [14] ja x x x Life cycle cost analysis on the upgrade of aging residential buildings in China, it is shown that growing energy prices and subsidies do not lead to a satisfactory economic viability

19

2011 Parfomak, P.W.

[35] bc x [see above the item 2010, Parfomak, P.W.] 0

2012 Haney, A.B.

[36] bc x International comparisons of demand-side management strategies and policies to improve energy efficiency, and their relationships with energy prices

6 2012 Zhao, X. [37] ja x Decomposition of China’s residential energy use,

showing that consumptions are shifting towards a more energy-intensive model and price reforms contribute to energy savings

83

(4)

that constitute the focus of this study - namely, energy price, energy inflation rate, and discount rate - the search string

used here is as follows:



( ALL ( “Building energy efficiency” ) AND TITLE-ABS-KEY ( “Energy price” ) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY (

“Inflation rate” ) OR TITLE-ABS-KEY ( “Discount rate” ) ).

In other words, a general key expression (“building energy efficiency”) is adopted to define the boundaries of the

analysis. That key is used to search all the abstracting database fields. In addition, three specific expressions (“energy

price”, “inflation rate”, and “discount rate”) are adopted to refine the search within titles, abstracts, and keywords.

The search returns a result of 65 published items. That number does not reflect the whole amount of studies that,

somehow, make use of the three analyzed parameters. Indeed, several other indexed documents base their analysis on

economic parameters without explicitly reporting them in the abstract or among the keywords. As a case in point, let

us consider that searching for the three key expressions (“energy price”, “inflation rate”, and “discount rate”) in all

the abstracting database fields - without limiting the search to titles, abstracts, and keywords - would produce 188

results. However, I take into account the 65 results of the search string mentioned above relying on the assumption

that mentioning an economic parameter in the abstract or among the keywords reveals that it takes on high significance

in the research work and the related publication.

It deserves mentioning a partial overlap of the results (

Fig. 2

). Although most of the analyzed studies deal only

with the parameter of the energy price or, in a subordinate position, exclusively with the discount rate, a certain number

of publications consider two parameters (i.e., the energy supply cost and the discount rate, or the energy inflation rate

and, again, the discount rate). Other few studies present empirical applications, if not even theoretical reflections,

which involve all the three parameters considered here.

Fig. 2. Summary of the bibliographic search in Scopus.

The items are characterized by a publication window of about two decades, from 1996 to 2018. However, only two

articles date back to the late nineties, while all the other documents have been published after the year 2007. What is

more, nearly 70% of the documents have been authored during the last five years. Concerning the publication venue,

the results are mostly journal articles (72%) and conference papers (23%), while only three (5%) are book chapters.

As far as the publication outlets are concerned, the journal Energy and Buildings hosts nine articles, eight other papers

have been published in Energy Policy, and five each in Energy and Journal of Cleaner Production.

3. Summary of the results

Tables 1 to 4

summarize the results (in chronological order) by reporting, for each study, the publication venue,

the economic parameter(s) considered, and the synthetic description of the topic. Besides, the number of citations (as

of April 2018) is meant to act as a proxy of the attention gained, although a low number of citations is likely to

characterize the studies published in the last couple of years. In absolute terms, the most cited study is that authored

by Newell, Jaffe, and Stavins (test of the Hicks’s induced innovation hypothesis on energy-using consumer durables),

published in 1999 in The Quarterly Journal of Economics [

28]. Other highly-cited documents are those by Zhao, Li,

and Ma (decomposition analysis of urban energy consumptions in China) and by Kumbaroğlu and Madlener

(evaluation of optimal retrofit investment options using Monte Carlo simulation), both published in 2012 [

37,38]. Out

of the 65 analyzed studies, nine are not included in the tables due to their limited relevance, namely, the fact that they

only incidentally deal with at least one of the economic parameters which this study focuses on.

Table 1. Summary of the results (first part). Economic parameter Year First author and

reference Venue (1) Energy price Inflation rate Discount rate Topic Citations 1996 Levine, M.D.

[27] ja x Gap between energy prices and the full costs of energy production due to subsidies, which disincentive investments in energy efficiency

7 1999 Newell, R.G.

[28] ja x The relationship between product innovation and energy price in the field of energy-using consumer durables

377 2008 Scott, M.J. [29] ja x Net savings of the US building energy efficiency

programs considering UN IPCC warming scenarios (reduced need for heating and increase in space cooling demand)

12

2009 Cao, J. [30] ja x Influence of the energy price on the economic viability of a retrofit measure, showing that contradictions affect China’s energy price system

9 2009 Wu, Y. [31] cp x Energy prices are among the parameters to consider for

the building energy management to be effective and efficient

2 2010 Parfomak, P.W.

[32] bc x Policies need to address the energy price risks: uncertainty about future energy prices hinders the assumption of investment decisions about building efficiency

0

2010 Zwettler, G.

[33] cp x Energy costs are among the parameter considered in an optimization software meant to assist the design of energy efficient buildings

2 2011 Jeong, J. [34] ja x Heating energy usage patterns in the light of the

substitute/complementary relationship between gas and electricity and according to energy price and household characteristics

13

2011 Ouyang, J. [14] ja x x x Life cycle cost analysis on the upgrade of aging residential buildings in China, it is shown that growing energy prices and subsidies do not lead to a satisfactory economic viability

19

2011 Parfomak, P.W.

[35] bc x [see above the item 2010, Parfomak, P.W.] 0

2012 Haney, A.B.

[36] bc x International comparisons of demand-side management strategies and policies to improve energy efficiency, and their relationships with energy prices

6 2012 Zhao, X. [37] ja x Decomposition of China’s residential energy use,

showing that consumptions are shifting towards a more energy-intensive model and price reforms contribute to energy savings

83

(5)

Table 2. Summary of the results (second part). Economic parameter Year First author and

reference Venue (1) Energy price Inflation rate Discount rate Topic Citations 2012 Kumbaroglu, G.

[38] ja x x Case study of building retrofit addressing uncertainty in energy prices through Monte Carlo simulation, showing that their changes significantly affect the profitability of the investments

66

2013 Cajias, M. [39] ja x Financial performance of German housing: energy efficiency affects tenant decisions (0.76 Eur/m2 higher rent) and the performance of investor portfolios (up to 3.15% higher return)

30

2013 Cox, M. [40] ja x Revision of the projected investments in energy-efficient equipment and related energy consumptions in the US according to different levels of the discount rate

16

2013 Egging, R. [41] ja x Discussion on the drivers and uncertainties in the recent and future energy market trends, especially as far as energy prices are concerned

6 2014 Wu, W. [42] ja x Techno-economic analysis of a combined heat supply

system, linking heating period, energy price, and payback period

11 2014 Deng, Q. [43] ja x Analysis and discussion of a simulation-based decision

model to design contract period in the field of Energy Performance Contracting

17 2014 Yan, X. [44] ja x x Techno-economic analysis of energy storage systems:

the sensitivity analysis reveals that the discount rate has the largest influence on the viability of the analyzed systems

20

2014 Qian, D. [45] ja x x Development of a revenue-sharing bargaining model within Energy Performance Contracting and analysis of the impacts of energy prices and risk-adjusted discount rates

16

2014 Bonakdar, F.

[46] ja x x Analysis of the cost-optimum level of renovation in a multi-story residential building according to different discount rates and energy prices

19 2014 Adika, C.O.

[47] ja x Approach to the development of an automated appliance scheduling system for household energy management including expected energy prices

81 2015 Guo, L. [48] cp x Optimization methodology to minimize the energy cost

under energy price uncertainty: random price changes with a known underlying distribution

2 2015 Wu, L. [49] ja x Environmental, economic analysis of a water supply

facility incorporating climate externalities: a higher discount rate counteracts the effectiveness of the carbon cost factor

8

2015 Lin, B. [50] ja x Analysis of building energy consumptions and building energy efficiency in light of urbanization process and energy price trends

32 2015 Deng, Q. [51] ja x x x Energy cost savings model, meant to improve Energy

Performance Contracting, which accounts for energy price fluctuation using Monte Carlo simulation

14 2015 Deng, Q. [52] ja x Simulation-based model to maximize the facility

owner’s profit and satisfy the ESCo’s expected rate of return

7 (1) ja: journal article; cp: conference paper; bc: book chapter.

Table 3. Summary of the results (third part). Economic parameter Year First author Venue

(1) Energy price Inflation rate Discount rate Topic Citations 2015 Lin, B. [53] ja x Analysis of the substitution relationship between each

input factor including energy in China’s food industry, showing that a direct rebound effect partially offsets energy savings

4

2016 Lin, B. [54] ja x Analysis of energy rebound effect in China’s light industry considering the effects of energy prices on energy consumptions

11 2016 Roshchanka, V.

[55] ja x Feedbacks about the use of Energy Performance Contracts and the development of the ESCos’ business model in the Russian Federation

4 2016 Liu, X. [56] ja x Model meant to determine the optimal value of the

discount rate that enables to take emissions under controls in building procurement contracts

0 2016 Ameer, B. [57] ja x x Impact of heavily subsidized energy prices for the

residential building sector in Kuwait: need to increase the electricity price to improve energy savings and efficiency in building

8

2016 Good, N. [58] ja x Techno-economic framework for the assessment of business cases of low carbon technologies, with a focus on multiple energy systems and vectors

19 2016 Krarti, M. [59] ja x x Analysis of the cost-effectiveness potential of net-zero

energy residential buildings in the Middle East and North Africa region, which is found to strongly depends on energy prices

11

2016 Brandão de Vasconcelos, A. [60]

ja x Cost-optimal analysis of several refurbishment

scenarios accounting for different discount rate using sensitivity analysis

3 2016 Liu, H. [61] ja x Analysis of the impacts of technological advancement

on energy consumption in China’s building industry in light of the direct rebound effect

6 2016 He, L. [62] ja x Analysis to test the hypothesis that the relative energy

price and not the absolute one is the most important to explain energy consumptions

1 2017 Miezis, M. [63] cp x Algorithm for model predictive control (MPC) in

multi-family buildings, including energy prices as constraints, with application to a case study in Latvia

3 2017 Copiello, S. [1] ja x Review of the paradoxes affecting the research topics

focusing on building energy efficiency, one of which relates to the relationship between investments and energy prices

14

2017 Khabdullin, A.

[64] cp x Analysis of the possible use of electricity as a source for district heating systems considering electricity price in comparison with heat energy price

0 2017 Krarti, M. [65] ja x x Evaluation of economic and environmental impacts of

energy efficiency programs for new and existing buildings in Saudi Arabia under conditions of highly subsidized energy prices

1

2017 Weeber, M.

[66] cp x Overview and discussion of opportunities, risks, and trends associated with the topic of energy flexibility in a context of fluctuating energy prices

0 2017 Simona, P.L.

[67] cp x Study on increasing energy efficiency in collective residential buildings by acting on their thermal insulation

(6)