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Three essays on computational methods for policy making

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❈♦"#♦ ❞✐ ❉♦''♦"❛'♦ ❞✐ "✐❝❡"❝❛

✐♥ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❛

❈✐❝❧♦ ❳❳❳

❚❡#✐ ❞✐ ❘✐❝❡"❝❛

❚❤"❡❡ ❡$$❛②$

♦♥ ❝♦♠♣✉-❛-✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❡-❤♦❞$

❢♦" ♣♦❧✐❝② ♠❛❦✐♥❣

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❘✐♥❣.❛③✐❛♠❡♥*✐

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❈♦♥#❡♥#%

✶ ❊①♣❡❝&❛&✐♦♥+ ❛♥❞ ✉♥❝❡.&❛✐♥&②✿

❆ ❝♦♠♠♦♥✲+♦✉.❝❡ ✐♥❢❡❝&✐♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦. +❡❧❡❝&❡❞ ❊✉.♦♣❡❛♥ ❝♦✉♥&.✐❡+ ✶✼ ✶✳✶ ■♥$%♦❞✉❝$✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽ ✶✳✷ ❚❤❡ %♦❧❡ ♦❢ ❡①♣❡❝$❛$✐♦♥5 ♦♥ ❝♦♥5✉♠♣$✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷ ✶✳✸ ❚❤❡♦%❡$✐❝❛❧ ❢%❛♠❡✇♦%❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺ ✶✳✸✳✶ ❈❛%%♦❧✬5 ❈❙■ ❢%❛♠❡✇♦%❦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺ ✶✳✸✳✷ ❆ ♥❡✇ ❈❙■ ❢%❛♠❡✇♦%❦ ❛❧❧♦✇✐♥❣ ❢♦% ❝❤❛♥❣❡5 ♦❢ ✐♥❛$$❡♥$✐✈❡ ❛❣❡♥$5 ♣%❡❞✐❝$✐♦♥5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼ ✶✳✸✳✸ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ $❤❡ ❈❙■ ❢%❛♠❡✇♦%❦ $♦ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥$ ❡①♣❡❝$❛$✐♦♥5 ✳ ✷✽ ✶✳✹ ❈❙■ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛♥❞ ✧♥❡✇5✲❜❛5❡❞✧ ✉♥❝❡%$❛✐♥$② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✷ ✶✳✺ ❊5$✐♠❛$✐♦♥ 5$%❛$❡❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹ ✶✳✺✳✶ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡$%✐❝ 5$%❛$❡❣② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹ ✶✳✺✳✷ ▼✐❝%♦✲5✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ 5♣❡❝✐✜❝❛$✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✺ ✶✳✻ ❊5$✐♠❛$✐♦♥ ♦✉$♣✉$ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻ ✶✳✻✳✶ ❊❝♦♥♦♠❡$%✐❝ %❡5✉❧$5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✻ ✶✳✻✳✷ ❙✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ %❡5✉❧$5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✵ ✶✳✼ L♦❧✐❝② ❝♦♥5✐❞❡%❛$✐♦♥5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺ ✶✳✼✳✶ ❖✉$♣✉$ ❣❛♣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺ ✶✳✼✳✷ ✧❲❤❛$ ✐❢✧ 5❝❡♥❛%✐♦5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✻ ✶✳✽ ❈♦♥❝❧✉5✐♦♥5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✾ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐❝❡+ ✺✶ ✶✳❆ ❚❡❝❤♥✐❝❛❧ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐① ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶ ✶✳❆✳✶ ❉❡%✐✈❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊Q✉❛$✐♦♥ ✭✶✳✶✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶ ✶✳❆✳✷ ❉❡%✐✈❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊Q✉❛$✐♦♥ ✭✶✳✷✶✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✷ ✶✳❆✳✸ ❉❡%✐✈❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❊Q✉❛$✐♦♥ ✭✶✳✷✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✷ ✶✳❇ ❆❞❞✐$✐♦♥❛❧ ❋✐❣✉%❡5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✹ ✶✳❈ ❙$②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝$5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✺ ✶✳❉ ❆❧$❡%♥❛$✐✈❡ ♠✐❝%♦5✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜%❛$✐♦♥5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻ ✶✳❊ ■❙ ❝✉%✈❡✿ %♦❜✉5$❡55 ❝❤❡❝❦5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✽ ✶✳❊✳✶ ❋✉❧❧② ❜❛❝❦✇❛%❞ ■❙ ❝✉%✈❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✽ ✶✳❊✳✷ ❍♦❞%✐❝❦✲L%❡5❝♦$$ ❋✐❧$❡% ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✵ ✶✳❊✳✸ ❊①$❡♥❞❡❞ ■❙ ❝✉%✈❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✵ ✶✳❋ L♦❧✐❝② ❝♦♥5✐❞❡%❛$✐♦♥5✿ ♠✐❝%♦5✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❞❡$❛✐❧5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷ ✶✳● ❉❛$❛ ❞❡5❝%✐♣$✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸ ✺

(6)

✻ ❈❖◆❚❊◆❚❙ ✷ ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥) ❡①♣❡❝)❛)✐♦♥. ✐♥ ■)❛❧②✿ ❛♥ ❆❣❡♥)✲❜❛.❡❞ ▼♦❞❡❧ ✇✐)❤ ❡❞✉❝❛)✐♦♥ ✻✼ ✷✳✶ ■♥&'♦❞✉❝&✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✽ ✷✳✷ ▼✐❝'♦❞❛&❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✾ ✷✳✸ ❙✉♠♠❛'② 5&❛&✐5&✐❝5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸ ✷✳✹ ❙✐♠✉❧❛&✐♦♥ ❛♣♣'♦❛❝❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✺ ✷✳✺ ❘❡5✉❧&5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻ ✷✳✻ ❈♦♥❝❧✉5✐♦♥5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✾ ❆♣♣❡♥❞✐❝❡. ✽✶ ✷✳❆ ◆✉♠❜❡' ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥&5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✶ ✷✳❇ ❆❧&❡'♥❛&✐✈❡ ✈❛❧✉❡5 ♦❢ β ❛♥❞ γ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✷ ✷✳❈ ❆❧&❡'♥❛&✐✈❡ ❢♦'❡❝❛5&5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✸ ✸ ❆ ?❡♣❧✐❝❛)✐♦♥ ♦❢ A✐♥❞②❝❦✬. ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡.. )♦ ♣❛②✿ ♦♥ )❤❡ .❛❝?✐✜❝❡ ♥❡❡❞❡❞ )♦ ♦❜)❛✐♥ ?❡.✉❧). ✽✺ ✸✳✶ ■♥&'♦❞✉❝&✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✻ ✸✳✷ ❚❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✽ ✸✳✸ ❱❡'✐✜❝❛&✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶ ✸✳✸✳✶ ❘ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶ ✸✳✸✳✷ ❊5&✐♠❛&✐♦♥ ♦❢ &❤❡ ❞✐5♣❧❛❝❡❞ ❣❛♠♠❛ ❞❡♥5✐&② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✶ ✸✳✸✳✸ ❊5&✐♠❛&✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❲✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡55 &♦ K❛② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸ ✸✳✹ ❊①&❡♥5✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✼ ✸✳✺ ❘❡❛♥❛❧②5✐5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✾ ✸✳✺✳✶ ❈♦♥✈❡① ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝&✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✶ ✸✳✺✳✷ ◆♦♥✲❝♦♥❝❛✈❡ ♣❛&&❡'♥ ♦❢ &❡♠♣❡'❛&✉'❡ ✐♥❝'❡❛5❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✻ ✸✳✻ ❉✐5❝✉55✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✼ ✸✳✻✳✶ ❊5&✐♠❛&✐♦♥ ♦❢ &❤❡ ❞❡♥5✐&✐❡5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✵ ✸✳✻✳✷ ❖♥ 5❡♥5✐&✐✈✐&② ❛♥❛❧②5✐5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✵ ✸✳✻✳✸ ❖♥ &❤❡ ✉♣♣❡' ❧✐♠✐&5 ♦❢ ✐♥&❡❣'❛&✐♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶ ✸✳✼ ❈♦♥❝❧✉5✐♦♥5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✸

❆♣♣❡♥❞✐❝❡. ✶✶✺

✸✳❆ ▲♦❣ ✉&✐❧✐&② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✺ ✸✳❇ ❆♥❛❧②&✐❝❛❧ ❞❡'✐✈❛&✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣❛'❛♠❡&❡'5 ♦❢ ❊R✉❛&✐♦♥ ✭✸✳✶✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✻

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▲✐"# ♦❢ ❚❛❜❧❡"

✶ ▲✐#$ ♦❢ #②♠❜♦❧# ❛♥❞ ❛❝/♦♥②♠# ✉#❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣$❡/ ✶ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶ ✷ ▲✐#$ ♦❢ #②♠❜♦❧# ❛♥❞ ❛❝/♦♥②♠# ✉#❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣$❡/ ✷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷ ✸ ▲✐#$ ♦❢ #②♠❜♦❧# ❛♥❞ ❛❝/♦♥②♠# ✉#❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣$❡/ ✸ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷ ✶✳✶ ❊#$✐♠❛$❡# ❢/♦♠ ❆❘❉▲ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❊<✳ ✭✶✳✶✮ ✭❋❘❆✲❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✶✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ●❊❘ ✶✾✾✷<✶✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ■❚❆ ✶✾✾✶<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✹ ✶✳✷ ❊//♦/✲❝♦//❡❝$✐♦♥ ▲♦♥❣ ❘✉♥ ❈♦❡✣❝✐❡♥$# ❊<✳ ✭✶✳✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✹ ✶✳✸ ❆✉①✐❧✐❛/② /❡❣/❡##✐♦♥ ut+4− ut= φ0+ φ1EUtU + ǫt ✭✶✾✽✻<✶✲✷✵✶✻<✶✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵ ✶✳✹ ❯♥✐$ /♦♦$ $❡#$# /❡#✉❧$# ✭✶✾✽✻<✶✲✷✵✶✻<✸✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✶ ✶✳✺ ❯♥♦❜#❡/✈❡❞ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❡#$✐♠❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ ∆4ut ✭✶✾✽✻<✶✲✷✵✶✻<✸✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✶ ✶✳✻ ●▼▼ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ ❊<✳ ✭✶✳✷✺✮ ✭❋❘❆✲■❚❆ ✶✾✽✼<✷✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ●❊❘ ✶✾✽✻<✷✲ ✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ❯❑ ✶✾✽✼<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾ ✶✳✼ ▼✐❝/♦✲#✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜/❛$✐♦♥ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸ ✶✳✽ ❘❛$✐♦ σǫ ❛♥❞ ση ✭❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✳✺✮ $♦ γ ✭❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✳✼✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸ ✶✳✾ ❈♦//❡❧❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ /❡❛❧ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ #✐♠✉❧❛$❡❞ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸ ✶✳✶✵ ❖▲❙ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ $❤❡ ■❙ ❝✉/✈❡ ❊<✳ ✭✶✳✷✾✮ ✭❋/❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✷✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ●❡/♠❛♥② ✶✾✾✶<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ■$❛❧② ✶✾✾✺<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺ ✶✳✶✶ ❙$❛♥❞❛/❞ ❞❡✈✐❛$✐♦♥ ♦❢ $❤❡ ♦✉$♣✉$ ❣❛♣ ✭✷✵✵✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✺◗✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✻ ✶✳❈✳✶❈♦""❡❧❛&✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❖❊❈❉ ❢♦"❡❝❛.&. ❛♥❞ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥&❛❧ "❛&❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✸✮ ✳ ✺✺ ✶✳❉✳✶▼✐❝/♦✲#✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜/❛$✐♦♥ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ❛##✉♠✐♥❣ β = 0.8 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻ ✶✳❉✳✷▼✐❝/♦✲#✐♠✉❧❛$✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜/❛$✐♦♥ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ❛##✉♠✐♥❣ β = 1 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✼ ✶✳❊✳✶❖▲❙ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ $❤❡ ❜❛❝❦✇❛/❞✲❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ ■❙ ❝✉/✈❡ ✭❊<✳ ✶✳✹✼✮ ✭❋/❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✷✲✷✵✶✼<✶✱ ●❡/♠❛♥② ✶✾✾✶<✸✲✷✵✶✼<✶✱ ■$❛❧② ✶✾✾✺<✸✲✷✵✶✼<✶✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾ ✶✳❊✳✷❖▲❙ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ $❤❡ ■❙ ❝✉/✈❡✳ ❈♦♥$❡♠♣♦/❛♥❡♦✉# ❡①♣❡❝$❛$✐♦♥# #♣❧✐$$❡❞ ✐♥ ❧❛❣ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥$ ❛♥❞ ✜/#$ ❞✐✛❡/❡♥❝❡ ✭❊<✳ ✶✳✹✽✮ ✭❋/❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✷✲ ✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ●❡/♠❛♥② ✶✾✾✶<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ■$❛❧② ✶✾✾✺<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✾ ✶✳❊✳✸❖▲❙ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ $❤❡ ■❙ ❝✉/✈❡✱ ✉#✐♥❣ ❍♦❞/✐❝❦✲[/❡#❝♦$$ ✜❧$❡/ ❛# ❞❡$/❡♥❞✲ ✐♥❣ ♦♣$✐♦♥ ✭❊<✳ ✶✳✹✾✮ ✭❋/❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✷✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ●❡/♠❛♥② ✶✾✾✶<✸✲ ✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ■$❛❧② ✶✾✾✺<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✵ ✶✳❊✳✹❖▲❙ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ $❤❡ ❜❛❝❦✇❛/❞✲❧♦♦❦✐♥❣ ■❙ ❝✉/✈❡✱ ✉#✐♥❣ ❍♦❞/✐❝❦✲[/❡#❝♦$$ ✜❧$❡/ ❛# ❞❡$/❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♣$✐♦♥ ✭❊<✳ ✶✳✺✵✮ ✭❋/❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✷✲✷✵✶✼<✶✱ ●❡/♠❛♥② ✶✾✾✶<✸✲✷✵✶✼<✶✱ ■$❛❧② ✶✾✾✺<✸✲✷✵✶✼<✶✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶ ✶✳❊✳✺❖▲❙ ❡#$✐♠❛$❡# ♦❢ $❤❡ ■❙ ❝✉/✈❡ ❊<✳ ✭✶✳✺✶✮ ✭❋/❛♥❝❡ ❛♥❞ ❯❑ ✶✾✾✶<✷✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ●❡/♠❛♥② ✶✾✾✶<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✱ ■$❛❧② ✶✾✾✺<✸✲✷✵✶✻<✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷ ✶✳●✳✶❉❛$❛ ❞❡#❝/✐♣$✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ #♦✉/❝❡# ❢♦/ ❋/❛♥❝❡✱ ●❡/♠❛♥②✱ ■$❛❧② ❛♥❞ $❤❡ ❯♥✐$❡❞ ❑✐♥❣❞♦♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✺ ✷✳✶ ❘❡❣/❡##✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡①♣❡❝$❛$✐♦♥# ♦♥ ❞❡♠♦❣/❛♣❤✐❝ ✈❛/✐❛❜❧❡#✱ ❙❍■❲ ✷✵✶✶ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶ ✼

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✽ ▲■❙❚ ❖❋ ❚❆❇▲❊❙ ✷✳✶ ❙✉♠♠❛(② *+❛+✐*+✐❝* ✭✶✾✾✺1✶✲✷✵✶✼1✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹ ✷✳✷ ❙✉♠♠❛(② *+❛+✐*+✐❝* ♦❢ ✜++❡❞ ✈❛❧✉❡* dMedu,t[•] ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✶✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹ ✷✳✶ ▼✐❝(♦✲*✐♠✉❧❛+✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜(❛+✐♦♥ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻ ✷✳✷ ❙✉♠♠❛(② *+❛+✐*+✐❝* ✲ ❙✐♠✉❧❛+❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❖(✐❣✐♥❛❧ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻ ✷✳✸ ▼✐❝(♦✲*✐♠✉❧❛+✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜(❛+✐♦♥ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✵✽◗✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✽ ✷✳✹ ▼✐❝(♦✲*✐♠✉❧❛+✐♦♥ ❝❛❧✐❜(❛+✐♦♥ ✭✷✵✵✾◗✶✲✷✵✶✷◗✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✽ ✷✳❇✳✶❙❡♥*✐+✐✈✐+② ❛♥❛❧②*✐* ✇✐+❤ ❛❧+❡(♥❛+✐✈❡ ✈❛❧✉❡* ♦❢ β ❛♥❞ γ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✽✷ ✷✳❈✳✶❙✉♠♠❛(② *+❛+✐*+✐❝* ✲ ❈♦((❡❧❛+✐♦♥* ♦❢ *✐♠✉❧❛+❡❞ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡* ✉*✐♥❣ ✽✵ ❜❛+❝❤❡* ♦❢ ✧(❛♥❞♦♠✧ ♣(♦❢❡**✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦(❡❝❛*+* ✇✐+❤ ▲❚❍❙ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✽✸ ✸✳✶ ❲❚O* ✇✐+❤ ❛❧+❡(♥❛+✐✈❡ ♣❛(❛♠❡+❡( ✈❛❧✉❡*✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✻ ✸✳✶❛ ❲❚O* ✇✐+❤ ❛❧+❡(♥❛+✐✈❡ ♣❛(❛♠❡+❡( ✈❛❧✉❡*✱ ■O❈❈ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ❞❛+❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✾ ✸✳✶❜ ❲❚O* ✇✐+❤ ❛❧+❡(♥❛+✐✈❡ ♣❛(❛♠❡+❡( ✈❛❧✉❡*✱ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝+✐♦♥ gt= g0− γ′Tt1.25✶✵✹ ✸✳✶❞ ❲❚O* ✇✐+❤ ❛❧+❡(♥❛+✐✈❡ ♣❛(❛♠❡+❡( ✈❛❧✉❡*✱ *✐❣♠♦✐❞ ♣❛++❡(♥ T′ t = 1+bcaT−(t−H)H + dTH ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✾ ✸✳✷ ❈❛*❡ ✶ ✭❜❛*❡❧✐♥❡✮ ♦❢ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✳✶✳ ❙❡♥*✐+✐✈✐+② ❛♥❛❧②*✐* ♦❢ w∗(0) ✇✐+❤ *❡✈❡(❛❧ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛+✐♦♥* ♦❢ γmax (x10−4) ✭❤♦(✐③♦♥+❛❧ ❛①✐*✮ ❛♥❞ Tmax ✭✈❡(+✐❝❛❧ ❛①✐*✮ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✷ ✸✳✸ ❈❛*❡ ✽ ✭η = 4✱ g0 = 0.01✮ ♦❢ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✳✶✳ ❙❡♥*✐+✐✈✐+② ❛♥❛❧②*✐* ♦❢ w∗(0) ✇✐+❤ *❡✈❡(❛❧ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛+✐♦♥* ♦❢ γmax (x10−4) ✭❤♦(✐③♦♥+❛❧ ❛①✐*✮ ❛♥❞ Tmax ✭✈❡(+✐❝❛❧ ❛①✐*✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✷

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▲✐"# ♦❢ ❋✐❣✉)❡"

✶✳✶ ■♠♣✉❧'❡ ❘❡'♣♦♥'❡ ❣-❛♣❤ ♦❢ ❞✐'♣♦'❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ❝❛♣✐5❛✱ ❝♦♥'✉♠♣5✐♦♥ ♣❡-❝❛♣✐5❛ ❛♥❞ ✐♥✢❛5✐♦♥ 5♦ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥5 ❡①♣❡❝5❛5✐♦♥' ✭✶✾✾✶◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✹✮✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾ ✶✳✷ ❚✐♠❡✲✈❛-②✐♥❣ ❡'5✐♠❛5❡' ♦❢ λ ♦❜5❛✐♥❡❞ ✈✐❛ '5❛5❡ '♣❛❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✹✮ ✸✼ ✶✳✸ ❚✐♠❡✲✈❛-②✐♥❣ ❡'5✐♠❛5❡' ♦❢ (1−λ)β ♦❜5❛✐♥❡❞ ✈✐❛ '5❛5❡ '♣❛❝❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲ ✷✵✶✻◗✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✼ ✶✳✹ ❚✐♠❡✲✈❛-②✐♥❣ ❡'5✐♠❛5❡' ♦❢ λ ✈! H♦❧✐❝② ❯♥❝❡-5❛✐♥5② ■♥❞❡① ✭❊!❯✱ ✐♥✈❡-5❡❞ '❝❛❧❡✮ ✭✶✾✾✼◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✸✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽ ✶✳✺ ❚✐♠❡✲✈❛-②✐♥❣ ❡'5✐♠❛5❡' ♦❢ λ ✈! ●♦♦❣❧❡ ❯♥❝❡-5❛✐♥5② ■♥❞❡① ✭●❯■✱ ✐♥✈❡-5❡❞ '❝❛❧❡✮ ✭✷✵✵✹◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✸✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽ ✶✳✻ ❈♦♥✜❞❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ 5❤❡ ♣-❡''✱ ✷✵✵✵✲✷✵✶✻ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾ ✶✳✼ ❘❡❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠✐❝-♦✲'✐♠✉❧❛5❡❞ '✉-✈❡② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡' ✭❝♦♥'5❛♥5 λ✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✳ ✹✶ ✶✳✽ ❘❡❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠✐❝-♦✲'✐♠✉❧❛5❡❞ '✉-✈❡② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡' ✭5✐♠❡✲✈❛-②✐♥❣ λ✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✹✷ ✶✳✾ ❘♦❧❧✐♥❣ '5❛♥❞❛-❞ ❞❡✈✐❛5✐♦♥ ♦❢ 5❤❡ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥5 ✉♥❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② 5❤❡ ❛❣❡♥5✲ ❜❛'❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✭✐&&✐♥❞❡①✮ ✈! ♣♦❧✐❝② ✉♥❝❡-5❛✐♥5② ✐♥❞❡① ✭❊!❯✮ ✭✶✾✾✼◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✹✹ ✶✳✶✵ ❇❛'❡❧✐♥❡ ❛♥❞ ✧✇❤❛5✲✐❢✧ ✭✇✐5❤ ♣♦❧✐❝② ✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥5❛5✐♦♥✮ ♦✉5♣✉5 ❣❛♣ ✭✷✵✵✺◗✶✲ ✷✵✶✺◗✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✼ ✶✳✶✶ ❇❛'❡❧✐♥❡ ❛♥❞ ✧✇❤❛5✲✐❢✧ ✭✇✐5❤ ♣♦❧✐❝② ✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥5❛5✐♦♥✮ ❤♦✉'❡❤♦❧❞' ❡①♣❡❝5❛✲ 5✐♦♥' ✭✷✵✵✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✺◗✹✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✽ ✶✳❇✳✶◆♦♥✲❡①♣❡'( ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥( ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥0 ✐♥❞❡① ✭❯♥❡♠♣✳ ❊①♣✳ ■♥❞❡①❂EUU t ✮ ✈! ❛❝(✉❛❧ ♣❛0( ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥( ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✭❯♥❡♠✳ *❛,❡ ✲ ❯♥❡♠✳ *❛,❡✭✲✹✮❂∆4ut✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✸✮✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✹ ✶✳❇✳✷❋✉♥❞❛♠❡♥(❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥( '❛(❡ ✭∆4ut∗✮ ✈! ❛❝(✉❛❧ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥( '❛(❡ ✭∆4ut✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✸✮✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✹ ✶✳❈✳✶C'♦❢❡00✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦'❡❝❛0(0 ✭1*♦❢✳ ❋♦*✮ ✈! ✭✉♥♦❜0❡'✈❡❞✮ ❧♦♥❣✲'✉♥ ❞❡(❡'♠✐♥❛♥( ♦❢ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐♥ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥( '❛(❡ ✭▲♦♥❣✲*✉♥ ❯♥♦❜✳ ❈♦♠♣✳✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✸✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✺ ✶✳❉✳✶❘❡❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠✐❝-♦✲'✐♠✉❧❛5❡❞ '✉-✈❡② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡' ✭β = 0.8✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻ ✶✳❉✳✷❘❡❛❧ ❛♥❞ ♠✐❝-♦✲'✐♠✉❧❛5❡❞ '✉-✈❡② ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡' ✭β = 1✮ ✭✶✾✽✻◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✼ ✷✳✶ ❍♦✉'❡❤♦❧❞' ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥5 ❡①♣❡❝5❛5✐♦♥' ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✐♥❞❡①❡' ❜② ❡❞✉❝❛5✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✹ ✷✳✷ ❋✐55❡❞ ✈❛❧✉❡' dMedu,t[•] ❜② ❡❞✉❝❛5✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✻◗✶✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✺ ✷✳✶ ❍♦✉'❡❤♦❧❞' ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥5 ❡①♣❡❝5❛5✐♦♥' ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ❢♦- ▲❚❍❙✱ ❍❙ ❛♥❞ ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✼ ✷✳❆✳✶❍♦✉'❡❤♦❧❞' ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥5 ❡①♣❡❝5❛5✐♦♥' ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✽✶ ✷✳❈✳✶❍✐'5♦❣-❛♠ ♦❢ ❝♦--❡❧❛5✐♦♥' ♦❢ '✐♠✉❧❛5❡❞ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡' ✉'✐♥❣ ✽✵ ❜❛5❝❤❡' ♦❢ ✧-❛♥✲ ❞♦♠✧ ♣-♦❢❡''✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦-❡❝❛'5' ✇✐5❤ ▲❚❍❙ ❜❛❧❛♥❝❡ ✐♥❞❡① ✭✶✾✾✺◗✶✲✷✵✶✼◗✷✮ ✳ ✳ ✽✸ ✾

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✶✵ ▲■❙❚ ❖❋ ❋■●❯❘❊❙ ✸✳✶ ❉✐&'(✐❜✉'✐♦♥ ♦❢ '❡♠♣❡(❛'✉(❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ TH✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✷ ✸✳✸ ❉✐&'(✐❜✉'✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❧♦&& ❢✉♥❝'✐♦♥ ♣❛(❛♠❡'❡( γ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸ ✸✳✹ w∗(0)✱ ❦♥♦✇♥ '❡♠♣❡(❛'✉(❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ T H✱ η = 2✱ g0 = 0.015✱ 0.020✱ 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✹ ✸✳✺ w∗(τ )✱ T H ❛♥❞ γ ✉♥❝❡('❛✐♥✱ η = 1.5, 2✱ g0 = 0.015✱ 0.020✱ 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✳ ✳ ✾✹ ✸✳✻ w∗(3) ✈❡(&✉& η✳ g 0 = 0.020❛♥❞ δ = 0, 0.01 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✺ ✸✳✶❛ ❉✐&'(✐❜✉'✐♦♥ ♦❢ '❡♠♣❡(❛'✉(❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ TH✱ ✷✵✶✹ ❞❛'❛✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✽ ✸✳✺❛ w∗(τ )✱ T H ❛♥❞ γ ✉♥❝❡('❛✐♥✱ η = 1.5, 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ ✷✵✶✹ ❞❛'❛✳ ❖❜&❡(✈❡ '❤❛' ❲❚D ❝❛♥♥♦' ❜❡ ♣❧♦''❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ τ = 0 ❛& θ2014 = 0.42 > 0✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✵ ✸✳✻❛ w∗(3) ✈❡(&✉& η✳ g 0 = 0.020❛♥❞ δ = 0, 0.01✱ ✷✵✶✹ ❞❛'❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✵ ✸✳✹❜ w∗(0)✱ ❦♥♦✇♥ '❡♠♣❡(❛'✉(❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ T H✱ η = 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ ❝♦♥✈❡① ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝'✐♦♥ gt = g0− γ′Tt1.25 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✷ ✸✳✺❜ w∗(τ )✱ T H ❛♥❞ γ ✉♥❝❡('❛✐♥✱ η = 1.5, 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝'✐♦♥ gt = g0− γ′Tt1.25 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✸ ✸✳✻❜ w∗(3) ✈❡(&✉& η✳ g 0 = 0.020❛♥❞ δ = 0, 0.01✱ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝'✐♦♥ gt = g0− γ′Tt1.25✶✵✹ ✸✳✹❝ w∗(0)✱ ❦♥♦✇♥ '❡♠♣❡(❛'✉(❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ T H✱ η = 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝'✐♦♥ gt= g0− γ′Tt1.5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✺ ✸✳✺❝ w∗(τ )✱ T H ❛♥❞ γ ✉♥❝❡('❛✐♥✱ η = 1.5, 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝'✐♦♥ gt = g0− γ′Tt1.5 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✺ ✸✳✷❞ D❛''❡(♥ ❝♦♠♣❛(✐&♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✼ ✸✳✹❞ w∗(0)✱ ❦♥♦✇♥ '❡♠♣❡(❛'✉(❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ T H✱ η = 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ &✐❣♠♦✐❞ ♣❛''❡(♥ T′ t = 1+bcaT−(t−H)H + dTH ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✽ ✸✳✺❞ w∗(τ )✱ T H ❛♥❞ γ ✉♥❝❡('❛✐♥✱ η = 1.5, 2✱ g0 = 0.015, 0.020, 0.025✱ ❛♥❞ δ = 0✱ &✐❣♠♦✐❞ ♣❛''❡(♥ T′ t = 1+bcaT−(t−H)H + dTH ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✽ ✸✳✻❞ w∗(3)✈❡(&✉& η✳ g 0 = 0.020❛♥❞ δ = 0, 0.01✱ &✐❣♠♦✐❞ ♣❛''❡(♥ Tt′ = 1+bcaT−(t−H)H + dTH ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✾

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▲✐"# ♦❢ "②♠❜♦❧"

❚❛❜❧❡ ✶✿ ▲✐)* ♦❢ )②♠❜♦❧) ❛♥❞ ❛❝2♦♥②♠) ✉)❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣*❡2 ✶ ❙②♠❜♦❧ ▼❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋✐2)* ♦❝❝✉22❡♥❝❡ ln(Ct) ❍♦✉)❡❤♦❧❞) ❝♦♥)✉♠♣*✐♦♥ ✭❧♦❣ ♦❢✮ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✷ ln(Yt) ❍♦✉)❡❤♦❧❞) ❞✐)♣♦)❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❝♦♠❡ ✭❧♦❣ ♦❢✮ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✷ πGDP t ■♥✢❛*✐♦♥ 2❛*❡ ✭●❉D ❞❡✢❛*♦2✮ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✼ πP CE t ■♥✢❛*✐♦♥ 2❛*❡ ✭D2✐✈❛*❡ ❈♦♥)✉♠♣*✐♦♥ ❊①♣❡♥❞✐*✉2❡✮ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✷ yt ❖✉*♣✉* ❣❛♣ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✼ it ❙❤♦2*✲*❡2♠ ✐♥*❡2❡)* 2❛*❡ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✼ ut ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥* 2❛*❡ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✸ EUt ❍♦✉)❡❤♦❧❞) ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥* ❊①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥) ■♥❞❡① ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✷ Nt[•] D2♦❢❡))✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦2❡❝❛)*❡2) ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✶ Mt[•] D♦♣✉❧❛*✐♦♥✲♠❡❛♥ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❤♦✉)❡❤♦❧❞) ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥) ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✶ Ei t[•] ❊①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤♦✉)❡❤♦❧❞ i ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✶ ǫt ❉✐)*✉2❜❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ *❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✶ ηt ■♥♥♦✈❛*✐♦♥ ✐♥ *❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✶ λt D2♦❜❛❜✐❧✐*② ♦❢ ❜❡✐♥❣ ✧✐♥❢❡❝*❡❞✧ ❜② *❤❡ ❡①♣❡2* ❢♦2❡❝❛)* ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✶ α ❈♦♥)*❛♥* *❡2♠ ♦❢ *❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♣2♦❝❡)) ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✷ β ❆✉*♦2❡❣2❡))✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥* ♦❢ *❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥*❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♣2♦❝❡)) ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✸✳✷ µ ❋2❛❝*✐♦♥ ♦❢ !✉❜❜♦%♥❧② ♣❡ ✐♠✐ !✐❝ ❤♦✉)❡❤♦❧❞) ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✺✳✷ γ D❛2❛♠❡*❡2 ❞❡*❡2♠✐♥✐♥❣ *❤❡ Q✉❛❧✐*❛*✐✈❡ ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✺✳✷ ❆❝2♦♥②♠ ▼❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋■❘❊ ❋✉❧❧ ■♥❢♦2♠❛*✐♦♥ ❘❛*✐♦♥❛❧ ❊①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✶ ❈❙■ ❈♦♠♠♦♥✲)♦✉2❝❡✲✐♥❢❡❝*✐♦♥ ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✶ ❊D❯ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ D♦❧✐❝② ❯♥❝❡2*❛✐♥*② ■♥❞❡① ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✹ ●❯■ ●♦♦❣❧❡ ❯♥❝❡2*❛✐♥*② ■♥❞❡① ❙❡❝*✐♦♥ ✶✳✹ ✶✶

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✶✷ ▲■❙❚ ❖❋ ❋■●❯❘❊❙ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✷✿ ▲✐*+ ♦❢ *②♠❜♦❧* ❛♥❞ ❛❝3♦♥②♠* ✉*❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣+❡3 ✷ ❙②♠❜♦❧ ▼❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋✐3*+ ♦❝❝✉33❡♥❝❡ Nt[•] <3♦❢❡**✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦3❡❝❛*+❡3* ❡①♣❡❝+❛+✐♦♥ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ Mt[•] <♦♣✉❧❛+✐♦♥✲♠❡❛♥ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♦❢ ❤♦✉*❡❤♦❧❞* ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ Ei t[•] ❊①♣❡❝+❛+✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤♦✉*❡❤♦❧❞ i ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ edu ❊❞✉❝❛+✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧✿ ▲❚❍❙✱ ❍❙ ♦3 ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✸ ISTU edu,t ❍♦✉*❡❤♦❧❞* ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥+ ❊①♣❡❝+❛+✐♦♥* ■♥❞❡① ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✸ ut ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥+ 3❛+❡ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✸ ǫt ❉✐*+✉3❜❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ +❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥+❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ ηt ■♥♥♦✈❛+✐♦♥ ✐♥ +❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥+❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ λedu <3♦❜❛❜✐❧✐+② ♦❢ ❜❡✐♥❣ ✧✐♥❢❡❝+❡❞✧ ❜② +❤❡ ❡①♣❡3+ ❢♦3❡❝❛*+ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ α ❈♦♥*+❛♥+ +❡3♠ ♦❢ +❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥+❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♣3♦❝❡** ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ β ❆✉+♦3❡❣3❡**✐✈❡ ❝♦❡✣❝✐❡♥+ ♦❢ +❤❡ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥+❛❧ ✈❛❧✉❡ ♣3♦❝❡** ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✷ µedu ❋3❛❝+✐♦♥ ♦❢ !✉❜❜♦%♥❧② ♣❡ ✐♠✐ !✐❝ ❤♦✉*❡❤♦❧❞* ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✹ γ <❛3❛♠❡+❡3 ❞❡+❡3♠✐♥✐♥❣ +❤❡ L✉❛❧✐+❛+✐✈❡ ❡①♣❡❝+❛+✐♦♥ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✹ ❆❝3♦♥②♠ ▼❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋✐3*+ ❖❝❝✉33❡♥❝❡ ❈❙■ ❈♦♠♠♦♥✲*♦✉3❝❡✲✐♥❢❡❝+✐♦♥ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✶ ▲❚❍❙ ▲❡ !❤❛♥ ❍✐❣❤ ❙❝❤♦♦❧ ❡❞✉❝❛+✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✸ ❍❙ ❍✐❣❤ ❙❝❤♦♦❧ ❡❞✉❝❛+✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✸ ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ❈♦❧❧❡❣❡ ❞❡❣3❡❡ ♦❢ ❤✐❣❤❡3 ❡❞✉❝❛+✐♦♥ ❧❡✈❡❧ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✷✳✸ ❚❛❜❧❡ ✸✿ ▲✐*+ ♦❢ *②♠❜♦❧* ❛♥❞ ❛❝3♦♥②♠* ✉*❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣+❡3 ✸ ❙②♠❜♦❧ ▼❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋✐3*+ ♦❝❝✉33❡♥❝❡ H ❍♦3✐③♦♥ ♦❢ +❤❡ ❢♦3❡❝❛*+ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ TH ❲❛3♠✐♥❣ ✐♥ ♣❡3✐♦❞ H ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ Tt ❲❛3♠✐♥❣ ✐♥ ♣❡3✐♦❞ t ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ θT ▲♦✇❡3 ❜♦✉♥❞ ♦❢ +❤❡ *✉♣♣♦3+ ♦❢ +❤❡ 3❛♥❞♦♠ ✈❛3✐❛❜❧❡ TH ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ g0 ❈♦♥*+❛♥+ ❣3♦✇+❤ 3❛+❡ ♦❢ ●❉< ✭✇✐+❤ ♥♦ ✇❛3♠✐♥❣✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ gt ●3♦✇+❤ 3❛+❡ ♦❢ ●❉< ✐♥ ♣❡3✐♦❞ t ✭❞❡♣❡♥❞* ♦♥ ✇❛3♠✐♥❣✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ γ ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ♣❛3❛♠❡+❡3 ✭✐♥ ❣3♦✇+❤ 3❛+❡✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ β ❉❛♠❛❣❡ ♣❛3❛♠❡+❡3 ✭✐♥ ❧❡✈❡❧*✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ η ■♥❞❡① ♦❢ 3❡❧❛+✐✈❡ 3✐*❦ ❛✈❡3*✐♦♥ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ δ ❉✐*❝♦✉♥+ 3❛+❡ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ τ ▲❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✇❛3♠✐♥❣ +♦ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❧✐♠✐+ +❤❡ 3❛♥❞♦♠ ✈❛3✐❛❜❧❡ TH +♦ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ w∗(τ ) ❲✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡** +♦ ♣❛② +♦ ❧✐♠✐+ T H +♦ τ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✷ α ❊①♣♦♥❡♥+ ♦❢ +❤❡ ❞❛♠❛❣❡ ❢✉♥❝+✐♦♥ ✭❞❡+❡3♠✐♥❡* ❝♦♥✈❡①✐+②✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✺✳✶ ❆❝3♦♥②♠ ▼❡❛♥✐♥❣ ❋✐3*+ ♦❝❝✉33❡♥❝❡ <✶✷ <✐♥❞②❝❦ ✭✷✵✶✷✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✶ <✵✾ <✐♥❞②❝❦ ✭✷✵✵✾✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✶ ■<❈❈✵✼ ■<❈❈ ❋♦✉3+❤ ❆**❡**♠❡♥+ ✭✷✵✵✼✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✶ ■<❈❈✶✹ ■<❈❈ ❋✐❢+❤ ❆**❡**♠❡♥+ ✭✷✵✶✹✮ ❙❡❝+✐♦♥ ✸✳✶

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■♥"#♦❞✉❝"✐♦♥

✧■❢ ✇❡ %❡&'%✐❝' ♦✉%&❡❧✈❡& '♦ ♠♦❞❡❧& ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ &♦❧✈❡❞ ❛♥❛❧②'✐❝❛❧❧②✱ ✇❡ ✇✐❧❧ ❜❡ ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ❢♦% ♦✉% ♠✉'✉❛❧ ❡♥'❡%'❛✐♥♠❡♥'✱ ♥♦' '♦ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❡ ❡①♣❧❛♥❛'♦%② ♦% ♣%❡❞✐❝'✐✈❡ ♣♦✇❡%✧✳ ❍❛""② ▼✳ ▼❛"❦♦✇✐*③✱ ◆♦❜❡❧ ❧❛✉"❡❛*❡ ❚❤❡ ❛❞✈❡♥* ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉*❡"; ❤❛✈❡ ❡<✉✐♣♣❡❞ "❡;❡❛"❝❤❡" ✐♥ *❤❡ ♠❛❥♦"✐*② ♦❢ ✜❡❧❞;✱ "❛♥❣✐♥❣ ❢"♦♠ ♥❛*✉"❛❧ *♦ ;♦❝✐❛❧ ;❝✐❡♥❝❡;✱ ✇✐*❤ ❡♥❤❛♥❝❡❞ *♦♦❧; *♦ ♣❡"❢♦"♠ *❤❡✐" ✇♦"❦✳ ❋♦❝✉;✐♥❣ ✐♥ ♣❛"*✐❝✉❧❛" ♦♥ *❤❡ ;♦❝✐❛❧ ;❝✐❡♥❝❡;✱ ❧✐❦❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝;✱ ❝♦♠♣✉*❡" ❡;*✐♠❛*✐♦♥ ♦" ;✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥ ♠❛② ♣"♦✈✐❞❡ "❡❧✐❛❜❧❡ "❡;✉❧*; ❜❡②♦♥❞ *❤❡ ♦♥❡; ❛**❛✐♥❛❜❧❡ *❤"♦✉❣❤ *❤❡ ❡❧❡❣❛♥*✱ ❜✉* ❧✐♠✐*❡❞✱ "❛♥❣❡ ♦❢ ❛♥❛❧②*✐❝❛❧❧② *"❛❝*❛❜❧❡ ♠♦❞❡❧; ✭❍❡❧❜✐♥❣✱ ✷✵✶✷✮✳ ❋♦" ❡①❛♠♣❧❡ ❆❣❡♥*✲❇❛;❡❞ ▼♦❞❡❧;✱ ♦" *❤❡ ❝♦""❡;♣♦♥❞✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣✉*❛*✐♦♥❛❧ *❡❝❤♥✐<✉❡ ❦♥♦✇♥ ❛; ▼✉❧*✐✲❆❣❡♥* ❙✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥;✱ ✉;✉❛❧❧② ✐♥✈♦❧✈❡ ❛ ;✉❜;*❛♥*✐❛❧ ❞❡❣"❡❡ ♦❢ ❤❡*❡"♦❣❡♥❡✐*② ❛♥❞ ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❜❛;❡❞ ♦♥ ;✐♠♣❧❡ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦✉"❛❧ ❛;;✉♠♣*✐♦♥;✳ ▼✉❧*✐✲❆❣❡♥* ❙✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥;✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛"❡ ❝♦♠♣✉*❛*✐♦♥❛❧❧② ❞❡♠❛♥❞✐♥❣✱ ♠❛② ❜❡ ❛❜❧❡ *♦ "❡♣"♦❞✉❝❡ ;*②❧✐③❡❞ ❢❛❝*; ;*❛"*✐♥❣ ❢"♦♠ ;✐♠♣❧❡ ♦" ❡✈❡♥ ✐❞❡❛❧✐③❡❞ ❛;;✉♠♣*✐♦♥;✱ ❧✐❦❡ ❤❡✉"✐;*✐❝; ✐♥✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❧✐**❧❡ ✭♦" ♥♦✮ "❛*✐♦♥❛❧✐*②✳ ❚❤❡;❡ ;✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥ "❡;✉❧*; ❛"❡ ;*✐❧❧ ❝♦♠♣❛"❛❜❧❡ ✇✐*❤ ❡♠♣✐"✐❝❛❧ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ✇✐*❤♦✉* *❤❡ ♥❡❡❞ ♦❢ ❛ ❝❧♦;❡❞✲❢♦"♠ ;♦❧✉*✐♦♥ *♦ ❜❡ *❡;*❡❞✳ ❚❤❡ ❛♣♣❛"❡♥*❧② ;✐♠♣❧❡ ✭❝♦♠♣❧❡①✮ ♠❛② ❜❡ "❡✈❡❛❧❡❞ *♦ ❜❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡① ✭;✐♠♣❧❡✮ ✭❊♣;*❡✐♥✱ ✷✵✵✽✮✳ ❙♦♠❡ ♠❛❝"♦✲❧❡✈❡❧ "❡;✉❧*; *❤❛* ❛"❡ ❞✐✣❝✉❧* *♦ ❥✉;*✐❢② ✇✐*❤ ❛ ❘❡♣"❡;❡♥*❛*✐✈❡ ❆❣❡♥* ♠♦❞❡❧ ♠❛② *✉"♥ ♦✉* *♦ ❜❡ "❡❛;♦♥❛❜❧② ✭❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✈✐♥❝✐♥❣❧②✮ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ✇❤❡♥ ❍❡*❡"♦❣❡♥❡♦✉; ❆❣❡♥*; ❛"❡ ❛❧❧♦✇❡❞ ❢♦" ✭;❡❡✱ ❢♦" ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❑"✉;❡❧❧ ❛♥❞ ❙♠✐*❤✱ ✶✾✾✽✮✳ ❆* *❤❡ ✈❡"② ;❛♠❡ *✐♠❡✱ ❡✈❡♥ ♠♦❞❡❧; ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛"❡ ❛♥❛❧②*✐❝❛❧❧② *"❛❝*❛❜❧❡ ❛♥❞ ❢❡❛*✉"✐♥❣ ❝❧❡❛" <✉❛❧✐*❛*✐✈❡ ❡❝♦✲ ♥♦♠✐❝ ✐♥*✉✐*✐♦♥; ♠❛② ❜❡ ❡①*❡♥❞❡❞ ♦" ♠♦❞✐✜❡❞ ✉;✐♥❣ ❝♦♠♣✉*❛*✐♦♥❛❧ ♠❡*❤♦❞;✳ ❚❤❡ ✉;❡ ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉*❛*✐♦♥❛❧ *♦♦❧; ♠❛② ❛❧❧♦✇ *♦ ♦❜*❛✐♥ <✉❛♥*✐*❛*✐✈❡ "❡;✉❧*; *❤❛* ✇♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ✐♠♣♦;;✐❜❧❡ *♦ "❡❛❝❤ ✉;✐♥❣ ✧♣❛♣❡"✲❛♥❞✲♣❡♥❝✐❧✧ ♠❡*❤♦❞; ✭❢♦" ❡①❛♠♣❧❡✱ ❜❡❝❛✉;❡ ;♦♠❡ ❢✉♥❝*✐♦♥; ❛"❡ ♥♦* ❛♥❛❧②*✐❝❛❧❧② ✐♥*❡❣"❛❜❧❡✮ ❛♥❞ ♥♦✇❛❞❛②; *❤✐; ❝❛♥ ❜❡ ❞♦♥❡ "♦✉*✐♥❡❧②✱ ❡✈❡♥ ✐❢ ✐♥ *❤❡ ♣❛;* *❤❡ *❛;❦ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❝♦♥;✐❞❡"❡❞ ❝♦♠♣✉*❛*✐♦♥❛❧❧② *♦♦ ❞❡♠❛♥❞✐♥❣✳ ❖♥❡ ♦❢ *❤❡ ❜❡❛✉*② ♦❢ ❝♦♠♣✉*❡" ;✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥; ✐; *❤❛*✱ ♦♥❝❡ ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇✐*❤ ❣♦♦❞ ❡①♣❧❛♥✉✲ %❛'♦%② ♦% ♣%❡❞✐❝'✐✈❡ ♣♦✇❡% ✐; ❢♦"♠✉❧❛*❡❞✱ *❤✐; *♦♦❧ ✇✐❧❧ ❢❛❝✐❧✐*❛*❡ *❤❡ ❡①♣❧♦"❛*✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣♦❧✐❝② ♦♣*✐♦♥; ❛♥❞ ✧♣❛"❛❧❧❡❧ ✇♦"❧❞;✧✳ ■♥ ❈❤❛♣*❡" ✶✱ ■ ;*❛"* ❢"♦♠ ❛ ❝♦♠♠♦♥✲;♦✉"❝❡✲✐♥❢❡❝*✐♦♥ ✭❈❙■✮ *❤❡♦"❡*✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢"♦♠ ✧▼❛❝"♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥; ♦❢ ❤♦✉;❡❤♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ ♣"♦❢❡;;✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦"❡✲ ❝❛;*❡";✧✱ ❈✳❉✳ ❈❛""♦❧❧✱ ❚❤❡ ◗✉❛%'❡%❧② ❏♦✉%♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝&✱ ✷✵✵✸✳ ■ ✉;❡ ❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛*✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡*"✐❝ ❛♥❞ ;✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥ ;*"❛*❡❣✐❡; *♦ ;*✉❞② *❤❡ ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥ ❢♦"♠❛*✐♦♥ ♣"♦❝❡;; ♦❢ ❊✉"♦♣❡❛♥ ❤♦✉;❡❤♦❧❞;✱ ❢♦❝✉;✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥* ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥;✱ ❛♥❞ ✐*; "♦❧❡ ♦♥ *❤❡ ❛❣❣"❡✲ ❣❛*❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❛❝*✐✈✐*②✳ ■ ✜♥❞ *❤❛* (i) *❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ❝♦♠♠♦♥✲;♦✉"❝❡✲✐♥❢❡❝*✐♦♥ ❢"❛♠❡✇♦"❦ ✐; ;✉♣♣♦"*❡❞ ❜② ❞❛*❛ ♦♥ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥* ❡①♣❡❝*❛*✐♦♥;❀ (ii) ♠✐❝"♦✲;✐♠✉❧❛*✐♦♥ "❡;✉❧*; ❝♦♥✜"♠ *❤❛* *❤❡ ❤②♣♦*❤❡;✐; ♦❢ *❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛"❡ "❡❛;♦♥❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ *❡"♠; ♦❢ "❡♣❧✐❝❛*✐♦♥ ♦❢ *❤❡ ;✉"✈❡② ❞❛*❛ ❢"♦♠ ❊✉"♦♣❡❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✐;;✐♦♥✬; ❈♦♥;✉♠❡" ❙✉"✈❡②❀ (iii) *❤❡ ♣"♦❜❛❜✐❧✐*② ♦❢ ❛❜;♦"❜✐♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✐♥❢♦"♠❛*✐♦♥ ✐; ✭♥❡❣❛*✐✈❡❧②✮ ❝♦""❡❧❛*❡❞ ✇✐*❤ *❤❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ✉♥❝❡"*❛✐♥*② ;♣"❡❛❞ ❜② ♠❡❞✐❛ ❛♥❞ ✶✺

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✶✻ ▲■❙❚ ❖❋ ❋■●❯❘❊❙ "❤❡ ■♥"❡'♥❡"❀ (iv) ❤♦✉+❡❤♦❧❞+ ❡①♣❡❝"❛"✐♦♥+ ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♥♦♥ "'✐✈✐❛❧ '♦❧❡ ✐♥ ❞❡"❡'♠✐♥✐♥❣ ♣'✐✈❛"❡ ❝♦♥+✉♠♣"✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ "❤❡ ♦✉"♣✉" ❣❛♣✳ ■♥ ❈❤❛♣"❡' ✷✱ ■ ❡①"❡♥❞ "❤❡ ❈❙■ ♠♦❞❡❧ '❡✜♥❡❞ ✐♥ ❈❤❛♣"❡' ✶ ✉+✐♥❣ ❛♥ ❆❣❡♥"✲❇❛+❡❞ "❡❝❤✲ ♥✐?✉❡✳ ❚❤❡ ❣♦❛❧ ✐+ "♦ ✉♥❞❡'+"❛♥❞ ✐❢ ❡♠♣✐'✐❝❛❧ ❞❛"❛ ❝♦♥❝❡'♥✐♥❣ ■"❛❧✐❛♥ ❤♦✉+❡❤♦❧❞+ ❡①♣❡❝"❛✲ "✐♦♥+✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛♣♣❡❛' ♣!✐♠❛ ❢❛❝✐❡ ✐''❛"✐♦♥❛❧✱ ❝♦✉❧❞ ❜❡ ❡①♣❧❛✐♥❡❞ ❛++✉♠✐♥❣ "❤❛" ❤♦✉+❡❤♦❧❞+ ❤❛✈❡ ❤❡"❡'♦❣❡♥❡♦✉+ ❡①♣❡❝"❛"✐♦♥+ ❢♦'♠❛"✐♦♥ ♣'♦❝❡++❡+ ❛+ ❛ ❢✉♥❝"✐♦♥ ♦❢ "❤❡✐' ❡❞✉❝❛"✐♦♥✳ ■♥ ❢❛❝"✱ ❛❝❝♦'❞✐♥❣ "♦ ♦"❤❡' +"'❡❛♠+ ♦❢ ❧✐"❡'❛"✉'❡✱ "❤❡ ♠♦'❡ ❡❞✉❝❛"❡❞ ❛'❡ ❛❧+♦ ♠♦'❡ ✐♥❢♦'♠❡❞ ✭▲✉+❛'❞✐ ❛♥❞ ▼✐"❝❤❡❧❧✱ ✷✵✶✶❛✱❜✮✳ ❍❡♥❝❡✱ ❢♦' ♣♦❧✐❝② ♣✉'♣♦+❡+✱ ✐" ✐+ ✐♠♣♦'"❛♥" "♦ ✉♥❞❡'+"❛♥❞ ✐❢ "❤❡'❡ ❛'❡ ❞❡♠♦❣'❛♣❤✐❝ ❣'♦✉♣+ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛'❡ ❧❡++ ❛✇❛'❡ ♦❢ "❤❡ ❛❝"✉❛❧ +"❛"❡ ♦❢ "❤❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠②✱ +✐♥❝❡ "❤❡+❡ ❛'❡ "❤❡ ❣'♦✉♣+ ♠♦'❡ ✐♥ ♥❡❡❞ ❢♦' +♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❡❞✉❝❛"✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦'♠❛"✐♦♥✳ ■♥ ❈❤❛♣"❡' ✸✱ ■ ❝♦♥❞✉❝" ❛ '❡♣❧✐❝❛"✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ ❛ '♦❜✉+"♥❡++ ❛♥❛❧②+✐+✱ ✐♥✈♦❧✈✐♥❣ ❜♦"❤ ♥❡✇ ❞❛"❛ ❛♥❞ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❡①"❡♥+✐♦♥+✱ ♦❢ ✏❯♥❝❡'"❛✐♥ ♦✉"❝♦♠❡+ ❛♥❞ ❝❧✐♠❛"❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ♣♦❧✐❝②✑✱ ❘✳ P✐♥❞②❝❦✱ ❏♦✉!♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♥✈✐!♦♥♠❡♥/❛❧ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝0 ❛♥❞ ▼❛♥❛❣❡♠❡♥/✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❚❤❡ ♣❛♣❡' ✐+ ❝♦♥❝❡'♥❡❞ ✇✐"❤ "❤❡ ❡+"✐♠❛"✐♦♥ ♦❢ "❤❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡++✲"♦✲♣❛② ♦❢ +♦❝✐❡"② "♦ ❛✈♦✐❞ ❝❧✐♠❛"❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✭❛♥❞ '❡✲ ❧❛"❡❞ ❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❞❛♠❛❣❡+✮✳ ❚❤❡ '❡♣❧✐❝❛"✐♦♥ ♣❛'" '❡♣'♦❞✉❝❡+ "❤❡ ♦'✐❣✐♥❛❧ '❡+✉❧"+ ✐♥ ♠❛♥② ✭❛❧"❤♦✉❣❤ ♥♦" ❛❧❧✮ ❝❛+❡+ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✜'♠+ "❤❡ ?✉❛❧✐"② ❛♥❞ ✐♥"❡'♣'❡"❛"✐♦♥ ♦❢ "❤❡ ✇♦'❦✳ ❈♦♥✲ ❝❡'♥✐♥❣ "❤❡ '♦❜✉+"♥❡++ ❛♥❛❧②+✐+✱ ♦♥ "❤❡ ♦♥❡ ❤❛♥❞✱ (i) '❡✲❡+"✐♠❛"✐♥❣ "❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇✐"❤ ♠♦'❡ '❡❝❡♥" ❞❛"❛ ♦♥ ❝❧✐♠❛"❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡✱ "❤❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡++ "♦ ♣❛② ❞♦❡+ ♥♦" ✈❛'② ♠✉❝❤ ✇✐"❤ '❡+♣❡❝" "♦ "❤❡ ♦'✐❣✐♥❛❧ ♣❛♣❡'❀ ♦♥ "❤❡ ♦"❤❡' ❤❛♥❞✱ (ii) ❝❤❛♥❣✐♥❣ "❤❡ ❢✉♥❝"✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦'♠ ♣'♦❞✉❝❡+ ♠✉❝❤ ❜✐❣❣❡' ❛♥❞ ♣♦"❡♥"✐❛❧❧② ♣'♦❜❧❡♠❛"✐❝ ✐♥❝'❡♠❡♥"+ ♦❢ "❤❡ ✇✐❧❧✐♥❣♥❡++ "♦ ♣❛②✳

(17)

❈❤❛♣$❡& ✶

❊①♣❡❝$❛$✐♦♥. ❛♥❞ ✉♥❝❡&$❛✐♥$②✿

❆ ❝♦♠♠♦♥✲.♦✉&❝❡ ✐♥❢❡❝$✐♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦&

.❡❧❡❝$❡❞ ❊✉&♦♣❡❛♥ ❝♦✉♥$&✐❡.

▲✉❝❛ ●❡&♦((♦∗ ❆♥(♦♥✐♦ ,❛&❛❞✐.♦

❆❜"#$❛❝#

❲❡ ♣&❡.❡♥( ❛ ❝♦♠♠♦♥✲.♦✉&❝❡ ✐♥❢❡❝(✐♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦& ❡①♣❧❛✐♥✐♥❣ (❤❡ ❢♦&♠❛(✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥. ❜② ❛❣❡♥(.✳ ❲❡ .(❛&( ❢&♦♠ (❤❡ ❢&❛♠❡✇♦&❦ ♦❢ ✧▼❛❝&♦❡❝♦♥♦♠✐❝ ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥. ♦❢ ❤♦✉.❡❤♦❧❞ ❛♥❞ ♣&♦❢❡..✐♦♥❛❧ ❢♦&❡❝❛.(❡&.✧✱ ❈✳❉✳ ❈❛&&♦❧❧✱ ❚❤❡ ◗✉❛&'❡&❧② ❏♦✉&♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝2✱ ✷✵✵✸✳ ❲❡ ❛✉❣♠❡♥( (❤❡ ♦&✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❢&❛♠❡✇♦&❦ ❛..✉♠✐♥❣ (❤❛( ❛❧.♦ ✉♥✐♥❢♦&♠❡❞ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧. ❛&❡ ❛❜❧❡ (♦ ✉♣❞❛(❡ ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥. ❛❝❝♦&❞✐♥❣ (♦ ❛ ♥❛✐✈❡ ❡❝♦♥♦♠❡(&✐❝ ♣&♦❝❡..✳ ■♥ ❛❞❞✐(✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❡♠♣❤❛.✐③❡ (❤❡ &♦❧❡ ♦❢ (❤❡ ♣❛&❛♠❡(❡& ♠❡❛.✉&✐♥❣ (❤❡ ♣&♦❜❛❜✐❧✐(② ♦❢ ❜❡✐♥❣ ✐♥❢❡❝(❡❞ ✐♥ ❝❛♣(✉&✐♥❣ (❤❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦❢ ❛❣❡♥(.✬ ✉♥❝❡&(❛✐♥(②✳ ❚❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ❢&❛♠❡✇♦&❦ ✐. ❛♣♣❧✐❡❞ (♦ .(✉❞② (❤❡ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥( ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥. ❢♦& ❛ .❡❧❡❝(❡❞ ❣&♦✉♣ ♦❢ ❊✉&♦♣❡❛♥ ❝♦✉♥(&✐❡. ✭❋&❛♥❝❡✱ ●❡&♠❛♥②✱ ■(❛❧② ❛♥❞ (❤❡ ❯❑✮✳ ❖✉& &❡.✉❧(. .❤♦✇ (❤❛(✿ (i) (❤❡ ♥♦✈❡❧ ❢&❛♠❡✇♦&❦ ✐. .✉♣♣♦&(❡❞ ❜② ❞❛(❛ ♦♥ ✉♥❡♠♣❧♦②✲ ♠❡♥( ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥.❀ (ii) ♠✐❝&♦✲.✐♠✉❧❛(✐♦♥ &❡.✉❧(. ❝♦♥✜&♠ (❤❛( (❤❡ ❤②♣♦(❤❡.✐. ♦❢ (❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ ❛&❡ &❡❛.♦♥❛❜❧❡ ✐♥ (❡&♠. ♦❢ &❡♣❧✐❝❛(✐♥❣ (❤❡ .✉&✈❡② ❞❛(❛ ❢&♦♠ ❊✉&♦♣❡❛♥ ❈♦♠♠✐..✐♦♥✬. ❈♦♥✲ .✉♠❡& ❙✉&✈❡②❀ (iii) (❤❡ ♣&♦❜❛❜✐❧✐(② ♦❢ ❜❡✐♥❣ ✐♥❢❡❝(❡❞ ✐. ✭♥❡❣❛(✐✈❡❧②✮ ❝♦&&❡❧❛(❡❞ ✇✐(❤ (❤❡ ✉♥❝❡&(❛✐♥(② .♣&❡❛❞ ❜② ♥❡✇.♣❛♣❡&. ❛♥❞ ❝♦♥✈❡②❡❞ ❜② ■♥(❡&♥❡(❀ (iv) ❤♦✉.❡❤♦❧❞. ❡①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥. ❤❛✈❡ ❛ ♥♦♥ (&✐✈✐❛❧ &♦❧❡ ✐♥ ❞❡(❡&♠✐♥✐♥❣ ♣&✐✈❛(❡ ❝♦♥.✉♠♣(✐♦♥ ❛♥❞ (❤❡ ♦✉(♣✉( ❣❛♣✳

❏❊▲ ❈❖❉❊❙✿ ❉✽✹✱ ❊✷✹

❑❡② ❲♦,❞.✿ ❊①♣❡❝(❛(✐♦♥.✱ ❯♥❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥(✱ ❆❣❡♥(✲❇❛.❡❞ ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣

❉❡♣❛$%♠❡♥% ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝-✱ ❈❛✬ ❋♦-❝❛$✐ ❯♥✐✈❡$-✐%②✱ ✸✵✶✷✶✱ ❱❡♥✐❝❡✱ ■%❛❧② ❧✉❝❛✳❣❡$♦%%♦❅✉♥✐✈❡✳✐%❉❡♣❛$%♠❡♥% ♦❢ ❊❝♦♥♦♠✐❝-✱ ❈❛✬ ❋♦-❝❛$✐ ❯♥✐✈❡$-✐%②✱ ✸✵✶✷✶✱ ❱❡♥✐❝❡✱ ■%❛❧② ❛♥%♦♥✐♦✳♣❛$❛❞✐-♦❅✉♥✐✈❡✳✐%

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