Development of monitoring and GIS systems to assess distribution and diffusion of D. suzukii

Advances and prospects on monitoring and modeling of Drosophila suzukii in Europe

Wädenswil, Switzerland 26-27 March 2013 COST-Action FA 1104 Meeting – WG3 Crop Protection

to assess distribution and diffusion

of D. suzukii

Alessandro Cini, UPMC, FEM &

Gianfranco Anfora, FEM

What’s going on in Trentino?

-MONITORING IN TRENTINO

-Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) alberto.grassi@fmach.it

What’s going to happen in the future?

-MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino)

-Markus Neteler, Duccio Rocchini, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) markus.neteler@fmach.it

Where did the pest arrive and spread?

-TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION

-Alessio Papini, Ugo Santuososso (Univ. of Florence) cini.ales@gmail.com

What’s going on in Trentino?

-MONITORING IN TRENTINO

-Alberto Grassi, Gianfranco Anfora (FEM, Trento) alberto.grassi@fmach.it

Apple vinegar Seasonal dynamics of D. suzukii captures in Trentino

APRIL APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

# A D U LT S / TR A P / W EE K

Winter Winter-Spring Summer

Mean daily temp. (°C) – San Michele

Why a reduced population growth in 2012?

Mass trapping (about 50000 traps) Sanitation procedures

Better tuned used of chemicals

a- PREVENTION AND CONTROL PROCEDURES b- CLIMATE

b a

- Lower Temperatures - Fewer precipitations Total Rain (mm) 21- Dec/ 20 March 2010 308 2011 215,4 2012 50,2

CLIMATE –

winter

Possible increase in mortality of

OVERWINTERING individuals

 High mortality of spontaneous

blueberry plants in the wild (blueberry is a summer host of SWD)

25 March: 260260 DD DD

(First activity of OW females)

1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD)

25 March: 260260 DD DD

(First activity of OW females)

1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD)  A strong stimulus for adults to leave overwintering

site and exit the diapause.

Confirmation of movements in the lowlands

CLIMATE –

Winter/Spring

Week # Date Catches

9 27/2-4/3 1♀

12 19-25/3 1♀

13 26/3-1/4 3♀ + 2♂ 14 2-8/4 6♀ + 6♂

25 March: 260260 DD DD

(First activity of OW females)

1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and during March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD)

 A strong stimulus for adults to leave

overwintering site and exit the diapause.

CLIMATE –

Winter/Spring

2) Rapid drop of temp.  slow down of DD accumulation

Interference with already active individuals ?  Relevant decrease in cherries prodution (both

cultivated and spontaneous) ca 60%.

25 March: 260260 DD DD

(First activity of OW females)

1) Exceptionally warm climate in the second half of February and whole March (the warmest March since 1921)  Accumulation of Degree-Day (DD)

 Likely, a strong stimulus for adults to leave

overwrintering site and exit the diapause.

CLIMATE –

Winter/Spring

2) Rapid drop-down of temp  slow down of DD accumulation

Interference with already active individuals ?  Relevant decrease in cherries prodution (both

cultivated and spontaneous) ca 60%.

Effects on first generations development?

Mean # adults/trap/week on cherries (July- weeks 26-31)

26 27 28 29 30 31 tot

2011 0 0,6 0,7 2,6 6,4 27 37

2012 0 0 0,4 0,15 0,95 7,12 8,6

- Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD?

- Increase in average temperatures

- Higher max temp. in 2012 - Reduced precipitations

S. MICHELE (205 m)

PERGINE (475 m) YEAR °C WEEK °C WEEK

2010 32.5 33 32.1 33

2011 35.7 33 34.8 33

2012 36.5 34 36.2 34

- Stasis in population growth: a critical period for SWD?

Stasis in population growth:

A critical period for SWD?

FATTORI CLIMATICI –

estate

- Increase in average temperatures

- Higher max temp in 2012 - Reduced precipitations

S. MICHELE (205 m)

PERGINE (475 m) YEAR °C WEEK °C WEEK

2010 32.5 33 32.1 33

2011 35.7 33 34.8 33

2012 36.5 34 36.2 34

Reduction in available males for mating?

Reduction in reproduction

Reduced pop. growth & reduced infestations?

Winter Winter-Spring Summer

Mean daily temp. (°C) – San Michele

Colder & drier Precocious activation

followed by unusual late cold climate

Higher max Temp.

Summer matings OW

OW / First generations

«DROSKIDRINK» in RED BOTTLES: A HIGH-PERFORMANCE TRAP

77 TRAPS 29700 ADULTS CAUGHT 386 ADULTS/TRAP 55 TRAPS 62100 ADULTS

CAUGHT 1129 ADULTS/TRAP

DROSKIDRINK APPLE VINEGAR

APRIL APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC.

# A D U LS T / TR A P / W EE K

What’s going on in Trentino?

-MONITORING IN TRENTINO

What’s going to happen in the future?

MODIS satellite sensor derived LST maps microclimatic

characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated

meteorological station data.

Reconstructed daily land surface temperature (LST) data from satellites have been successfully used to predict areas of short term invasion of the invasive

species [e.g. tiger mosquito, Neteler et al., 2011; Roiz et al., 2011)

Land Surface Temperature (LST) maps allow

temperature-based indicators to be derived in a GIS framework.

We coupled information from DD models (Damus 2009, Coop 2010)

with Modis derived LSt map with a GIS approach.

To build predictive model with high resolution at the local geographic scale - First egg laying; first emergence…

FIRST EGG LAYING BY FEMALES

Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map

FIRST ADULTS EMERGENCE

Field data from 2011 show good overal fit with the produced map

2012

What’s going on in Trentino?

-MONITORING IN TRENTINO

What’s going to happen in the future?

-MODELLING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino)

Where did the pest arrive and spread?

Tracking the origin of introduction in Europe

Calabria et al. 2012 Cini et al. 2012

-Understanding the introduction pathways

-preventing new/recurrent colonization

Simultaneous reports from Italy and Spain

Geographic profiling:

a new technique to identify the probable spreading center

The Geographic Profiling function generates a

surface where each pixel has a different priority score indicating the optimal search pattern for the sources of invasive species (Stevenson et al. 2012).

Gp outperforms traditional techniques to find source population of invasive species

Geoprofiling approach

Parameters: from Stevenson et al. 2012

Python program Geoprof1_3.py

Data:

C. Baroffio, A. Escudero + published reports and papers

(e.g. Calabria et al., 2012, Suss & Costanzi 2011 …)

Spatial resolution: Heterogeneity in

reports  not possible to use GPS data  standardized using a 30X30 km grid. One point per cell.

Temporal resolution:

we used presence data for years from 2008 to 2010 and 2008 to 2011. Before 2010 too few data to

produced reliable results, after 2012 too much data: high monitoring campaign in some but not all

region. The early post invasion period is crucial.

More than 70 locations (2008-2010) and more than 100 (2008-2011)

20082010 distribution

Variation in algorithm parameters changes the area but not the localization

20082011 distribution

Again, slightly different area but same localization

Only those countries where SWD is reported. e.g. China, Thailand,

Propagule pressure

(tons of potentially infested hosts imported) is higher in France

What’s going on in Trentino?

-MONITORING IN TRENTINO

-Importance of climate; support for modelling, new trap protocol

What’s going to happen in the future?

-MODELING IN TRENTINO (but not only in Trentino)

-GIS based predictive model can be reliable, but should be

implemented

Where did the pest arrive and spread?

-TRACKING THE ORIGIN/S OF THE INVASION

- France as origin of spread?  prioritizing investigation areas for population genetics