Interest rate spreads between Italy and Germany : 1995-1997
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(2) All rights reserved. No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form without permission of the author.. c °1999 M. D'Amato and B. Pistoresi Printed in Italy in March 1999 European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I-50016 San Domenico (FI) Italy.
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(97) 6 Eht| UL*4? c 7rRof+ EtiUL?_ UL*4? @?_ 7Rf+ E|h_ UL* 4? Ai |h@?t|Lh) tLU! |L 7Rf+ @t @ ?** igiU| L? |i L|ih |L 43 Dw. wkh hqg ri Qryhpehu 4<<9/ Lwdo| uhmrlqhg wkh HUP iroorzlqj d irxu |hdu devhqfh1 Rxu uhvxowv duh urexvw zlwk uhvshfw wr wklv fkdqjh ri uhjlph1 Lq sduwlfx0 odu/ wkh frlqwhjudwlqj yhfwru dqg wkh zhdn h{rjhqhlw| vwuxfwxuh/ dv uhvwulfwhg lq K8/ fdqqrw eh uhmhfwhg e| wkh gdwd zkhq hvwlpdwhg rq wkh vxevdpsohv fryhulqj shulrgv= Mdq<80Rww<9 +S ydoxh+"7 , @ 3=8,/ Mdq<90Qry<9 +S ydoxh+"7 , @ 3=8,/ Qry<90Rww<: +S ydoxh+"7 , @ 3=6,1 Ghwdlohg uhvxowv duh dydlodeoh rq uhtxhvw1 44 Wklv dssurdfk lv xvhg iru h{dpsoh e| Fdqryd dqg Gh Qlfror* +4<<:,= % Li wkh lqqrydwlrqv lq wkh uhgxfhg irup v|vwhp duh xqfruuhodwhg/ doo wkh lghqwlfdwlrq vfkhphv zklfk lpsrvh uhvwulfwlrqv rq wkh frqwhpsrudqhrxv lpsdfw ri vkrfnv zloo surgxfh wkh vdph wkh uhvxowv1 Lq wkh ohvv h{wuhph fdvh zkhuh lqqrydwlrqv duh ri wkh uhgxfhg irup v|vwhp duh qhduo| xqfruuhodwhg uhvxowv zloo eh txdolwdwlyh urexvw wr dowhuqdwlyh lghqwlfdwlrqv vfkhphv zklfk lpsrvh uhvwulfwlrqv rq wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{ ri wkh vkrfnv%1 Vhh dovr Fdqryd +4<<8e, iru d glvfxvvlrq ri wklv srlqw1. D.
(98) @h@M*it ? |i L|ih @?_ 7Rf+ t Tih4@?i?|*) @giU|i_ M) tLU!t |L 7rRof+ @?_ _6
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(100) 6 t ?U@?}i_ ML| ? |i tLh| @?_ *L?} h? i? 7Rf+ @?_ 7rRof+ @hi tLU!i_ 4T*)?} |@| |i @h@M*i t ?L| Bh@?}ih U@ti_ M) |i L|ih @h@M*it |? |i t)t|i4 @t @*hi@_) |it|i_ ? tiU|L?
(101)
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(104) 6 @i @ t4*@h t@Ti OLiihc |iti hitTL?tit @hi ?L| _i?|U@* Ai _gihi?Ui Mi|ii? |i |L hitTL?tit t}}it|t @ ^|i ?|ihit|?} ?|ih Thi|@|L? @?_ @**Lt t |L @__hitt |i TL?| h@ti_ MiuLhi L? |i ?@|hi Lu |i tLhUi Lu |i hi_U|L? Lu |i tThi@_ E_Lt)?Uh@|U ihtt ?|ih ?@|L?@* Wu |i _)?@4U hitTL?tit ihi UL4T*i|i*) _i?|U@*c i tL*_ @i ?uihhi_ |@| @?) tLU! |L |i ?|ih?@|L?@* ?|ihit| h@|i @giU|i_ |i |L|@* tThi@_ L?*) |hL} |i i U@?}i h@|i u@U|Lh W? L|ih Lh_tc t?Ui |i _gihi?Ui 7Rf+ 7rRof+ ' (- i L*_ }i| |i hit*| |@| |i tLU!t |L |i ?|ih?@|L?@* ?|ihit| h@|i L*_ ?L| @giU| |i _iu@*| ht! L? W|@*@? ML?_t h@|it `i }i| |i LTTLt|i hit*|G |i igiU|t Lu |i ?|ih?@|L?@* tLU!t @hi ?L| |L|@**) U@T|hi_ M) U@?}it ? |i i TiU|@|L?t i4ML_i_ ? |i U@?}it Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i u@U|Lh W?t|i@_c ? Lh _@|@ |i _gihi?Ui ? |i _)?@4U t@Ti Lu |i ?|ihit| h@|i tThi@_ @?_ ?|ihit| h@|i tThi@_ L? t@T UL?|h@U|t t}}it|t |@| @ tLU! ? |i ,hLTi@? *ii* Lu |i tLh| |ih4 ?|ihit| h@|i 4L_it |i W|@*@? _iu@*| ht! u@U|Lh |@| hitTL?_t |L |t tLU! @t T*L||i_ ? 6}hi
(105) t @ UL?U*tL?c |i _iu@*| ht! _)?@4Ut ? W|@*) _h?} |i TihL_ ?_ih @?@*)tt t _hi? ?L| L?*) M) @ UL?|h) tTiUU UL4TL?i?| EUhi_M*|) }@? c M| @*tL M) @? ?|ih?@|L?@* UL4TL?i?| S.
(106) 6?@**)c | t Lh| ?L|U?} |@| |i *L?} h? @*i Lu |i tLU! |L 7rRof+ t 44i_@|i*) hi iU|i_ L?i |L L?i ? |i *L?} h? @*i Lu 7Rf+. e. L?U*tL?t. At T@Tih t|_it |i _i|ih4?@?|t Lu |i |L|@* ?|ihit| h@|i tThi@_ L? }Lih?4i?| ML?_t Mi|ii? W|@*) @?_ Bih4@?) L? |i TihL_ bbD bb. Ai t@* ?ULihi_ ?|ihit| h@|i T@h|) UL?_|L? _Lit ?L| L*_ ? |i TihL_ UL?t_ihi_ At i^*Mh4 UL?_|L? Mi|ii? f)i@ht A N# tThi@_c tThi@_ L? t@T UL?|h@U|t WAw#, hi iU|?} |i Uhhi?U) ht! E@*tL _i?i_ @t i U@?}i h@|i u@U|Lh @?_ _iu@*| ht! E@*tL _i?i_ UL?|h) ht!c 4@?*) _i |L |i } W|@*@? _iM| 4t| Mi @}4i?|i_ M) Bih4@? tLh| |ih4 ?|ihit| h@|i Ai 4T*ti hitTL?ti @?@*)tt TihuLh4i_ t}}it|t |@| |i *ii* Lu |i tLh| |ih4 Bih4@? ?|ihit| h@|i Tih4@?i?|*) @giU|t ML| |i i U@?}i h@|i u@U|Lh @?_ |i _iu@*| ht! u@U|Lh Ai 4T*U@|L? Lu |t hit*| t |@| |i hi_U|L? Lu |i tThi@_ ? |i TihL_ t|_i_ @t _i ML| |L Uhi_M*|) }@?t @?_ |L u@Lh@M*i _)?@4Ut ? |i Bih4@? ?|ihit| h@|i U hi_Ui_ ML| |i i U@?}i h@|i |ih4 @?_ |i _iu@*| ht! |ih4. ..
(107) +,6,+,,5 @4TMi**c avc @?_ 5**ihc +a EbH. c L?|i}h@|L? @?_ Ait|t Lu hiti?| V@*i L_i*tc aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c bDc fS
(108) fHH @?_ ihhL?c Ebb c |u@**t @?_ TTLh|?|itG `@| @UhL iUL?L4t|t 5L*_ k?L @ML| N?| +LL|c a *@?U@h_ : 6tihc i_t ,+ @UhLiUL?L4U ??@*tc @4Mh_}ic GWA hittc e2f @?L@ 6c EbbD@ c V+ 4L_i*tc ? @UhLiUL?L4i|hUtc i_|i_ M) OLLih k#c k*ih U@_i4U M*tiht EbbDM c V+ 5TiUU@|L?c ,t|4@|L?c Ait|?} @?_ 6LhiU@t| ?}c ? it@h@? Oc @?_ `U!i?tc O@?_MLL! Lu TT*i_ ,UL?L4i|hUtc
(109) SD #i UL*L< B Ebb. c 5|LU! hi|h?tc |ih4 t|hU|hic ? @|L? @?_ hi@* @U||)G @? ?|ih?@|L?@* TihtTiU|ic @|ih@* _ #tUttL?i ? b2c #T@h|4i?|L ,UL?L4@ L*|U@c N?iht|@< _ L_i?@ @TLh@*i B @?_ ||t c Ebb. c #L4it|U @?_ , |ih?@* 6@U |Lht ? W?|ihit| +@|i #i|ih4?@|L?c TT*i_ 6?@?U@* ,UL?L4Utc .c eSDe. LUh@?ic a EbHH c OL } t |i +@?_L4 `@*! ? Bqc aLh ?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c fbc 2e2SD #LLh?U!c ac @?_ Oi?_h)c # Ebbe c U64* Hf ? W?|ih@U |i ,UL?L4i|hU L_i**?} Lu #)?@4U 5)t|i4c W?|ih?@|L?@* AL4tL? M*t?} 6@4@c , 6c @?_ *ttc + EbH. c Ai W?uLh4@|L? ? wL?} @|h|) 6Lh@h_ +@|itc 4ihU@? ,UL?L4U +iic ..c SHfSb2 6@ihLc c B@@33c 6 @?_ 5T@i?|@c wc Ebb. c O} vi*_tG Ai 5Thi@_ L? Bih4@? W?|ihit| +@|itc ,UL?L4U aLh?@*cf.c bDSbHD BLL_?c k @?_ Bhi??itc Aa Ebbe c +i@* W?|ihit| +@|i ,^@* 3@|L? @?_ |i W?|i}h@|L? Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?U@* @h!i|tc aLh?@* Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* L?i) @?_ 6?@?Uic
(110) c f.2e H.
(111) aL@?ti?c 5 Ebb c ,t|4@|L? @?_ O)TL|itt Ait|?} Lu L? |i}h@|?} ViU|Lht ? B@tt@? ViU|Lh |Lhi}hitti L_i*tc ,UL?L4i| hU@c Dbc DDDHf k@|t4Mht B @?_ **ih 5 c Ebb
(112) c W?|ihit| +@|i w?!@}it |? ,hLTi@? L?i|@h) 5)t|i4G 6h|ih ?@*)ttc L?i)c hi_| @?_ @?!?} 2Dc T....b t|ih@*_wi?4c Ebb2 c L|i | 6h@U|*it Lu |i t)4T |L|U #t|hM|L? Lu |i @ 44 w!i*LL_ L?|i}h@|L? +@?! Ait| 5|@|t|UtG 6Lh @titc uLh_ **i|? Lu ,UL?L4Ut @?_ 5|@|t|Utc DeG eS.2 t|Lhitc Ebb. c +@_U N?|@hi i ihtt|i?3@G w< ?@*t N? @h@|@ _i**i 6*||@3L? ,UL?L4Uic +t|@ _ L*|U@ ,UL?L4U@c wjjjVWWc D2 +i4ihtc O , Ebb2 c L4T@htL?t Lu Ait|t uLh *|@h@|i L ?|i}h@|L?c 5|@|t|U@* @Tihtc
(113)
(114) c
(115)
(116) D
(117)
(118) b 5i}i*?c EbbS c Ai f )i@h WAw%#, t@T tThi@_ i^*M h4G |i it|4@|i Lu @ UL?|i}h@|?} iU|Lhc ? 54*@|L? @?_ 6Lhi U@t| Lu |i W|@*@? vi*_ 5Thi@_c @U!}hL?_ @Tihtc 5iT|i4Mih bbSc #i|tUi @?! +iti@hUc *@? 5i@c B Ebb2 c i?U4@h!?} |i , TiU|@|L?t O)TL|itt Lu |i W?|ihit| +@|i Aih4 5|hU|hiG ? ?@*)tt Lu L?|i}h@|L? ViU|Lhtc aLh?@* Lu t?itt : ,UL?L4U 5|@|t|Utc fc
(119) c
(120) e.
(121) SS ALt@|Lc EbbS c i@th?} ,N i TiU|@|L?t i4ML_i_ ? |i f )i@h AN# tThi@_c ? 54*@|L? @?_ 6LhiU@t| Lu |i W|@*@? vi*_ 5Thi@_c @U!}hL?_ @Tihtc 5iT|i4Mih bbSc #i|tUi @?! +iti@hUc *@?. b.
(122) 13 12 11 btp10y. 10. bund10y. 9 8 7 6. 250. 300. 350. 400. 450. 500. 550. 600. 650. 700. 750. 6}hi G wL?} |ih4 ?|ihit| h@|it. 2f. 800. 850. 900. 950.
(123) 13. 12. 11 lit10y. dm10y. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6 250. 300. 350. 400. 450. 500. 550. 600. 650. 700. 750. 6}hi 2G 5Lh| |ih4 ?|ihit| h@|it. 2. 800. 850. 900. 950.
(124) Response to One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of DM3M to DM3M. Response of DM3M to SWSPR10Y. Response of DM3M to SPR10Y. 0.06. 0.06. 0.06. 0.04. 0.04. 0.04. 0.02. 0.02. 0.02. 0.00. 0.00. 0.00. -0.02. -0.02 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. -0.02 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. Response of SWSPR10Y to DM3M. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. Response of SWSPR10Y to SWSPR10Y. Response of SWSPR10Y to SPR10Y. 0.10. 0.10. 0.10. 0.08. 0.08. 0.08. 0.06. 0.06. 0.06. 0.04. 0.04. 0.04. 0.02. 0.02. 0.02. 0.00. 0.00. 0.00. -0.02. -0.02 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. -0.02 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. Response of SPR10Y to DM3M. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. Response of SPR10Y to SWSPR10Y. Response of SPR10Y to SPR10Y. 0.10. 0.10. 0.10. 0.08. 0.08. 0.08. 0.06. 0.06. 0.06. 0.04. 0.04. 0.04. 0.02. 0.02. 0.02. 0.00. 0.00. 0.00. -0.02. -0.02 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. -0.02 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30. 6}hi
(125) G W4T*ti +itTL?ti 6?U|L?t. 22. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30.
(126) Response to One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of DM3M to DM3M. Response of DM3M to DR. 0.06. 0.06. 0.04. 0.04. 0.02. 0.02. 0.00. 0.00. -0.02. -0.02 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 5. Response of DR to DM3M. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 25. 30. Response of DR to DR. 0.08. 0.08. 0.06. 0.06. 0.04. 0.04. 0.02. 0.02. 0.00. 0.00. -0.02. -0.02 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 5. 10. 15. 20. 6}hi eG W4T*ti +itTL?ti 6?U|L?t. 2
(127).
(128)
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