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Cooperative investment, access, and uncertainty

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(1)RSCAS 2016/61 Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Florence School of Regulation. Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini and Steffen Hoernig.

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(3) European University Institute Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Florence School of Regulation. Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini and Steffen Hoernig. EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2016/61.

(4) This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper, or other series, the year and the publisher.. ISSN 1028-3625. © Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini and Steffen Hoernig, 2016 Printed in Italy, November 2016 European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ www.eui.eu cadmus.eui.eu.

(5) Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS), created in 1992 and directed by Professor Brigid Laffan, aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research on the major issues facing the process of European integration, European societies and Europe’s place in 21st century global politics. The Centre is home to a large post-doctoral programme and hosts major research programmes, projects and data sets, in addition to a range of working groups and ad hoc initiatives. The research agenda is organised around a set of core themes and is continuously evolving, reflecting the changing agenda of European integration, the expanding membership of the European Union, developments in Europe’s neighbourhood and the wider world. Details of the research of the Centre can be found on: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Research/ Research publications take the form of Working Papers, Policy Papers, and e-books. Most of these are also available on the RSCAS website: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ The EUI and the RSCAS are not responsible for the opinions expressed by the author(s).. Florence School of Regulation The Florence School of Regulation (FSR) is a partnership between the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI), the Council of the European Energy Regulators (CEER) and the Independent Regulators Group (IRG). Moreover, as part of the EUI, the FSR works closely with the European Commission. The objectives of the FSR are to promote informed discussions on key policy issues, through workshops and seminars, to provide state-of-the-art training for practitioners (from European Commission, National Regulators and private companies), to produce analytical and empirical researches about regulated sectors, to network, and to exchange documents and ideas. At present, its scope is focused on the regulation of Energy (electricity and gas markets), of Communications & Media, and of Transport. This series of working papers aims at disseminating the work of scholars and practitioners on current regulatory issues. For further information Florence School of Regulation Transport Area Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies European University Institute Via delle Fontanelle 19 I-50014 Fiesole (FI) Tel.: +39 055 4685 795 Fax: +39 055 4685 755 E-mail: fsr.transport@eui.eu Web: www.eui.eu/DepartmentsAndCentres/RobertSchumanCentre/Research/Programmes/FlorenceSchoolR egulation.aspx.

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(7) Abstract This paper compares the impacts of traditional one-way access obligations and the new regulatory scheme of co-investment on the roll-out of network infrastructures. We show that compulsory access leads to smaller roll-out, first because it reduces the returns from investment, and second because in the presence of uncertainty it provides access seekers with an option whose exercise hurts investors. Co-investment without access obligations leads to risk sharing and eliminates the access option, implying highest network coverage. Allowing for access on top of co-investment actually decreases welfare if the access price is low.. Keywords Co-investment; Access obligations; Next generation networks; Uncertainty JEL Classification: L96; L51.

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(46)

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(48) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. D85 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5 =1I 25 B57E<1D54 1>4 G5 1>1<IJ5 D85 5R53D ?6 CE38 1335CC ?2<971D9?>C ?> 9>F5CD=5>D 9>35>D9F5C. ,85 B5CD ?6 D85 @1@5B 9C ?B71>9J54 1C 6?<<?GC "> +53D9?>  G5 C5D ?ED ?EB =?45<9>7 6B1=5G?B; 1>4 3?=@1B5 D85 3?F5B175 5AE9<92B91 E>45B D85 D8B55 B57E<1D?BI B579=5C @EB5 1335CC @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC "> +53D9?>  G5 CDE4I D85 9=@13D ?6 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI ?> 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5 3?F5B175 9> D85 D8B55 B579=5C +53D9?>  3?>3<E45C. . (( +'(*(

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(50) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. 1>4 KB=  B5C@53D9F5<I 6?B 1 79F5> 1335CC 381B75  C5D 2I D85 B57E<1D?B /5 1CCE=5 D81D D85 5>DB1>D =1;5C @?C9D9F5 4E?@?<I @B?KDC E@ D? 1 =1H9=E= 1335CC @B935 

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(55) 

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(57) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. %!" ,"' 77B571D5 C?391< G5<61B5 9C 79F5> 2I D85 <?31< CEB@<EC 9> 3?F5B54 =1B;5DC =9>EC D85 D?D1< 9>F5CD=5>D 3?CD D81D 9C.   .          "D 9C 3<51B D81D D85 B57E<1D?B 6135C 1 3?=@<931D54 DB145 ?R G85> DBI9>7 D? C5D D85 1335CC 381B75 1D D85 C?391< ?@D9=E= (> D85 ?>5 81>4 1 89785B 1335CC 381B75 <514C D? 1 <1B75B 3?F5B175 ?B 4I>1=93 25>5KDC   2ED ?> D85 ?D85B 9D B54E35C D85 <?31< CD1D93 25>5KDC  . . *'

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(65) 

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(67).

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(72)  

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(74) . (> D85 ?D85B 81>4 96 1 3? 9>F5CD=5>D ?@D9?> 9C 9>DB?4E354 ?> D?@ ?6 1> 5H9CD9>7 1335CC ?2<971D9?> D?D1< 3?F5B175 453B51C5C 96 D85 6?<<?G9>7 3?>49D9?> 8?<4C                . .  .

(75) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. ?>49D9?>   8?<4C 6?B 1335CC 381B75C CEQ395>D<I 3<?C5 D? 3?CD 2531EC5 ?6 3?>D9>E9DI 1>4   1D    G5 81F5        D   

(76)   D89C 3?>49D9?> 253?=5C      G8938 1<C? 8?<4C E><5CC C5BF935C 1B5 F5BI 49R5B5>D91D54. CCE=5 D81D D85B5 9C 1D =?CD ?>5 1335CC 381B75  G85B5 ?>49D9?>   8?<4C G9D8 5AE1<9DI. ,85> 59D85B D85B5 9C 1 D8B5C8?<4 F1<E5 

(77) 

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(79)    ,85> 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 9>3B51C5C D?D1< 3?F5B175 96 1>4 ?><I 96 C5BF935C 1B5 CEQ395>D<I 49R5B5>D91D54 

(80) 

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(82)                         .   

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(84) 

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(87) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. *579=5. E?@?<I 3?F5B175. ,?D1< 3?F5B175.  .  . .     . )EB5 1335CC )EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D. ? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC       .       . "  AE9<92B9E= 3?F5B175 9> D85 D8B55 B579=5C

(88) %!$+()#$) ,!) ((  &*' (( ?B     G5 31> B5GB9D5 D85 G5<61B5 9> D85 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC B579=5 1C                     . ?B     G5 81F5 6B?=       1>4 D85 613D D81D G5<61B5 9C CD9<< 9>3B51C9>7 9> 3?F5B175 1D   

(89) D81D.       .         ,8EC        1>4        6?B 1<<    ">DB?4E39>7 3? 9>F5CD=5>D ?> D?@ ?6 5H9CD9>7 1335CC @B?F9C9?>C 9>3B51C5C C?391< G5<61B5 ,89C 9>3B51C5 9> G5<61B5 CD5=C 6B?= C81B54 1335CC 1D 3?CD 9> 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 1B51C @<EC @?D5>D91<<I 1 89785B D?D1< 3?F5B175 96     ,8EC @EB5 1335CC 9C 4?=9>1D54 2I 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC 6?B 5138 <5F5< ?6 D85 1335CC 381B75  1>4 D85B56?B5 5F5> =?B5 C? 1D D85 B5C@53D9F5 ?@D9=1< 1335CC 381B75C. "D 9C 1<C? 9>D5B5CD9>7 D? 3?=@1B5 D85 <5F5< ?6 1335CC 381B75C D81D G?E<4 25 38?C5> 2I D85 B57E<1D?B ?B C9=@<939DI 1CCE=5 D81D D85 C?391<<I ?@D9=1< 1335CC 381B75  E>45B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC <95C 25<?G   9 5  D?D1< 3?F5B175 9> 2?D8 31C5C 9C 5AE1< D?   "> D89C 31C5 D85 C?391<<I ?@D9=1< 1335CC 381B75 E>45B @EB5 1335CC   9C CDB93D<I <?G5B D81>     C9>35 D85 D5B=        9C 9>3B51C9>7 9>  D     B19C9>7 D85 1335CC. 381B75 9>3B51C5C D85 3?CD 9>F5CD=5>D 1B51 2I <?G5B9>7 ?@@?BDE>9DI 3?CDC 1D D85 C1=5 D9=5

(90) %5D     

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(92)   +9>35

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(94) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. D89C 9>3B51C5C D85 G5<61B5 719> 6B?= =?F9>7 D? 3? 9>F5CD=5>D. +9>35 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC 4?=9>1D5C @EB5 1335CC G5 >?G :ECD 81F5 D? 3?=@1B5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC D? @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D D? 45D5B=9>5 D85 @B565BB54 B57E<1D?BI B579=5.

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(96)     . ,8EC 96 D85 B57E<1D?B C5DC D85 )*-$'& 1335CC @B935 E>45B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC 9> @B9>39@<5 9>DB?4E39>7 1335CC ?F5B @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 31>>?D <?G5B G5<61B5 +D9<< 9D 9C @?CC92<5 D81D D85 1335CC @B935 =ECD 25 C5D C? 8978 D81D >? 1335CC G9<< 25 45=1>454 ,85B56?B5 9D 9C CD9<< 1 EC56E< 5H5B39C5 D? 3?=@1B5 G5<61B5 1D C@539K3 >?> ?@D9=1< 1335CC @B935 <5F5<C. ?>C945B KBCD 1> 1335CC @B935 C? <?G D81D D?D1< 3?F5B175 E>45B 1335CC 61<<C 25<?G @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3?F5B175 9 5   

(97)   ?B   

(98)   1>4 1<C? D81D 

(99)  9=@<I9>7 D81D   

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(102) 

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(106)  1>4 6?B 1335CC 381B75C 8978 5>?E78 CE38 D81D D?D1< 3?F5B175 E>45B 1335CC 5H3554C D85 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3?F 5B175 9 5      F5> 9> D89C 31C5 9D E>3<51B G85D85B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC 31> CDB93D<I 4?=9>1D5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D /5 31> 9>4554 B5GB9D5  1C 6?<<?GC       .                                          . . . . . G85B5      6?B       ,85B56?B5 1449>7 1335CC ?> D?@ ?6 3? 9>F5CD=5>D. 9>3B51C5C CD1D93 5Q395>3I 9> =?>?@?<I 1B51C 2ED 1D D85 3?CD ?6 <?G5B CD1D93 5Q395>3I 9> ?D85B 1B51C 4E5 D? 1 <?G5B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3?F5B175 1>4 <?G5B D?D1< 3?F5B175. /5 CE==1B9J5 D89C 1>1<IC9C G9D8 D85 6?<<?G9>7 @B?@?C9D9?> '%&%(!)!%$  )$(/ ,-' (- 0$-#  ,, &02, )'$(- , *.+  ,, ( &,) 0 %&2 )'$(- , *.+ )$(/ ,-' (- - -# )*-$'&  ,, #+"  ! -#  ,, #+" $, &)0    

(107)   )+ $! , +/$ , + ,.4$ (-&2 $5 + (-$-    

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(109) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. . #$ $')!$).. /85> ?@5B1D?BC 9>F5CD 9> 1 >5G 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5 D85I =1I 6135 E>35BD19>DI 12?ED D85 45=1>4 6?B D85 C5BF935C CE@@?BD54 2I D85 >5G >5DG?B; "> D89C C53D9?> G5 1>1<IJ5 8?G D85 49R5B5>D B57E<1D?BI B579=5C 1B5 1R53D54 G85> D85B5 9C CE38 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI. /5 1CCE=5 D81D 45=1>4 9C E>35BD19> 1 (-  G85> KB=C =1;5 D859B 9>F5CD=5>D 1>4 ?B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 4539C9?>C !?G5F5B 1335CC @B?F945C 1> ?@D9?> D? KB=  G8938 9>CD514 ?6 3? 9>F5CD9>7 31> G19D 6?B 45=1>4 D? 25 B51<9J54 256?B5 1C;9>7 6?B 1335CC  ?B=1<<I G5 3?>C945B D81D D85 @B?KDC 9>DB?4E354 12?F5 1B5 =51CEB54 @5B E>9D =1CC ?6 3?>CE=5BC 2ED D81D D85 45=1>4 <5F5<  9C E>35BD19> 1 (- /5 1CCE=5 D81D  9C E>96?B=<I 49CDB92ED54 ?F5B      G9D8    ,85 5H@53D54 <5F5< ?6 45=1>4 9C D85>    1>4  9C 9DC F1B91>35 !5>35 G5 9>D5B@B5D  1C D85 457B55 ?6 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI. EBD85B=?B5 G5 1CCE=5 D81D E>45B 1335CC KB= 1>4 KB=  =1;5 <?31< @B?KDC D81D 1B5 D85 49R5B5>35 25DG55> 1 7B?CC @B?KD 1>4 1> 9>D5B3?>>53D9?> KH54 3?CD 9 5  D85 9>3E=25>D =1;5C 1 >5D @B?KD       9> 4E?@?<I 1B51C 6?B 1 45=1>4 <5F5<  1>4 D85 5>DB1>D 1 >5D       @B?KD      B?= 1> 1 (- @5BC@53D9F5 D859B 5H@53D54 @B?KDC 1B5 D85> .        G85B5    1>4   B5@B5C5>D D85 4E?@?<I @B?KDC ?6 KB=    1>4         1>4 1>4 KB=  B5C@53D9F5<I 9> D85 21C5<9>5 =?45< 9>1<<I G5 45K>5    .       . /9D8 D85C5 1CCE=@D9?>C 1C G5 G9<< C55 D85 5>DB1>D 4?5C >?D 1C; 6?B 1335CC 96 D85 <5F5< ?6. 45=1>4 DEB>C ?ED D? 25 D?? <?G. . /5 12CDB13D 1G1I 6B?= 1449D9?>1< 381>>5<C D81D =1I 1R53D 9>F5CD=5>D 4539C9?>C E>45B E>35BD19>DI CE38 1C B9C; 1F5BC9?> ?6 KB=C ?B 3B549D @B?F945BC ,85C5 =1B;5D 651DEB5C G?E<4 1<C? 61F?EB 3? 9>F5CD=5>D ?F5B 1335CC @B?F9C9?>.  +55 D85 9<<ECDB1D9F5 =?45< 9> D85 @@5>49H G85B5 G5 9>DB?4E35 CE38 9>D5B3?>>53D9?> 3?CDC CCE=9>7 D81D D85 9>3E=25>D 9>3EBC D85 C1=5 KH54 9>D5B3?>>53D9?> 3?CD 1C D85 5>DB1>D 5>CEB5C D81D D85 DG? KB=C ?2D19> CI==5DB93 @B?KDC G85>  . .

(110) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. . *'

(111) %$+()#$). +9>35 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 9C 4539454 1 (-  256?B5 45=1>4 9C B51<9J54 D85 1>1<IC9C 9C D85 C1=5 1C 9> D85 =19> =?45< 9B=  453945C D? 3? 9>F5CD 9> 1> 1B51  96 1>4 ?><I 96.          .      ?D85BG9C5 D85 5>DB1>D G?E<4 >5F5B 3? 9>F5CD 9B=  /5 1CCE=5 D81D      D85> 3? 9>F5CDC 9> 1B51  96 1>4 ?><I 96      . "> 5AE9<92B9E= D85 9>3E=25>D 45@<?IC 9DC >5DG?B; E@ D? D85 1B51      1>4 D85 5>DB1>D 3? 9>F5CDC 9> D85 1B51C.    ,85B56?B5 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI 4?5C >?D 1R53D D85 3?F5B175 5AE9<92B9E= E>45B @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D. . *' ((. $)'$)/( !(!%$ C 1 25>38=1B; KBCD 1CCE=5 D81D KB=  1C;C 6?B 1335CC  !)+ 45 =1>4 9C B51<9J54 9B=  1C;C 6?B 1335CC 9> 1<< D85 1B51C 3?F5B54 2I KB= 96 1>4 ?><I 96  

(112)   ?==9D          /5 1CCE=5 D81D D89C 3?>49D9?> 9C >?D C1D9CK54 9 5  . D9>7 D? 1335CC 9C >?D 1 F912<5 ?@D9?> 1 (-  1>4 1335CC G9<< 25 B5AE5CD54 ?><I 96 D85 45=1>4 45>C9DI DEB>C ?ED D? 25 CEQ395>D<I 8978 1 *),- ,89C 1CCE=@D9?> 31@DEB5C D85 9451 D81D D85 1335CC ?2<971D9?> @B?F945C D85 5>DB1>D G9D8 1> 1335CC ?@D9?>  '?G 1CCE=5 D81D KB=  31> 1C; 6?B 1335CC !- + 45=1>4 9C B51<9J54 9B=  D85> 1C;C.     B?= ?EB 1CCE=@D9?> 6?B 1335CC 96 1>4 ?><I 96       D81D 9C       

(113)   G5 81F5     /5 1CCE=5 6EBD85B=?B5 D81D 

(114)   D81D 9C 1335CC. 9C @B?KD12<5 9> D85 8978 CD1D5C ?6 45=1>4 +9>35    453B51C5C 9> D85 1335CC 381B75  D85 5>DBI D8B5C8?<4  9>3B51C5C 9> D85 <1DD5B. . '?D5 D81D ?EB 1CCE=@D9?>C         B5AE9B5 D81D  . .

(115) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. ,85  1 (-  @B?2129<9DI ?6 5>DBI 9C D85> 79F5> 2I.  . . . .      . . . ,85B56?B5 1 89785B 1335CC 381B75 =1;5C 5>DBI <5CC <9;5<I G85B51C 1 89785B 457B55 ?6 E>35B D19>DI =1;5C 5>DBI =?B5 <9;5<I. $*#$)/( !(!%$ /85> 9D =1;5C 9DC 9>F5CD=5>D 4539C9?> KB= LC 5H@53D54 @B?KD ?6 3?F5B9>7 D85 1B51C    9C              G9D8 .   . . . . .   .  . . . .       .   1>4         

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(117)       . . G85B5 D85 9>5AE1<9DI 6?<<?GC 6B?=        

(118)  1>4     =?B5 E>35BD19>DI =1;5C 5>DBI =?B5 <9;5<I 1>4 85>35 453B51C5C D85 G5978D ?6 =?>?@?<I ?ED3?=5C. ,85B56?B5 1 89785B 1=?E>D ?6 B9C; B54E35C 9>F5CD=5>D 9>35>D9F5C E>45B 1335CC E5 D? D85 5H5B39C5 ?6 D85 1335CC ?@D9?> 2I D85 5>DB1>D D85 B5DEB>C 6B?= 25DD5B ?ED3?=5C 1B5 3EBD19<54. .

(119) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. G89<5 G?BC5 ?ED3?=5C 3?>D9>E5 D? 25 CE@@?BD54 2I D85 9>3E=25>D ?><I B?= 1 B57E<1D?BI F95G@?9>D D89C =1;5C 3? 9>F5CD=5>D =?B5 @B565B12<5 B5<1D9F5 D? @EB5 1335CC G85> 45=1>4 9C 8978<I E>35BD19> 9 5   9C 8978. .

(120) %!$+()#$) ,!) ((. ,? 133?E>D 6?B 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI G5 =?496I D85 D9=9>7 9> D85 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC B579=5 1C 6?<<?GC 9BCD KB= 453945C ?> D85 1B51C G85B5 9D G9<< 9>F5CD +53?>4 KB=  453945C G85B5 9D G9<< 3? 9>F5CD ,89B4 45=1>4 9C B51<9J54 ?EBD8 KB=  453945C G85B5 9D G9<< 1C; 6?B 1335CC 9>1<<I KB=C 3?=@5D5 9> <?31< =1B;5DC 1>4 @B?KDC 1B5 B51<9J54. $)'$)/( (( !(!%$ D +D175  D85 <5F5< ?6 45=1>4 9C ;>?G> 1>4 KB=  31> 1C; 6?B 1335CC 9> 1>I 3?F5B54 1B51 CCE=5 D81D KB= 81C 3?F5B54 D85 1B51C    1>4 D81D KB=  81C 4539454 D? 3? 9>F5CD E@ D? 1B51    "6     KB=  81C 3? 9>F5CD54 9> 1<< 3?F5B54 1B51C C? 9D 4?5C >?D 1C; 6?B 1335CC 1>IG85B5 "6 

(121)   KB=  1C;C 6?B 1335CC 9> D85 1B51C    96 1>4 ?><I 96   . $)'$)/( %!$+()#$) !(!%$ D +D175  KB= 81C 3?F5B54 D85 1B51C    2ED D85 <5F5< ?6 45=1>4 9C >?D I5D ;>?G> 9B=  81C DG? 38?935C 9> 5138 1B51       "D 31> 3? 9>F5CD G9D8 KB=  ?2D19>9>7 1> 5H@53D54 @B?KD ?6     .  "D 31> G19D 1>4 <1D5B 1C; 6?B 1335CC "> D89C 31C5 9D G9<< <1D5B 1C; 6?B 1335CC 96 1>4 ?><I 45=1>4 9C 8978 5>?E78 9 5     1>4 9DC 5H@53D54 @B?KD 9C .   . . . . . .  .    .   . . 9B=  3? 9>F5CDC 9> 1B51  96 1>4 ?><I          D81D 9C 96 1>4 ?><I 96                 ,85B56?B5 D85 1335CC ?@D9?> 9>DB?4E35C 1> ?@@?BDE>9DI.  ,85 5>DB1>D G?E<4 81F5 >? 9>D5B5CD D? 3?==9D >?D D? 5>D5B 1B51  C9>35 1 *),- G85> 45=1>4 9C B51<9J54 9D G9<< 25 @B?KD12<5 D? 5>D5B 9> D85 8978 CD1D5C ?6 45=1>4. 

(122).

(123) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. 3?CD 6?B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G8938 B54E35C D85 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3?F5B175 3?=@1B54 D? D85 @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D B579=5 ,85 89785B     D85 89785B D85 ?@@?BDE>9DI 3?CD 1>4 D85 <?G5B D85 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3?F5B175   . $*#$)/( !(!%$ /5 >?G DEB> D? D85 KBCD CD175 G85B5 KB= 453945C ?> D?D1< 3?F5B175 "6      KB=  G9<< 3? 9>F5CD 5F5BIG85B5 1>4 KB= LC 5H@53D54 @B?KDC 1B5           . ,85 =1H9=E= ?> D89C 2B1>38 ?6 KB= LC @B?KD 9C ?2D19>54 1D.      "6      KB=  3? 9>F5CDC E@ D? 1B51    1>4 1C;C 6?B 1335CC 9> D85 B5=19>9>7 1B51C 96 1>4 ?><I 96    9B= LC 5H@53D54 @B?KDC 1B5 D85>.   .                         . ,85 ( ?> D89C 2B1>38 ?6 D85 9>3E=25>DLC @B?KD 81C D85 9>D5B9?B C?<ED9?>     9 5 . 9D 9C 5AE1< D? D85 3?F5B175 G9D8 1335CC 2ED G9D8?ED 3? 9>F5CD=5>D ,89C 9C D85 ?@D9=E= ?> D89C 2B1>38 96 1>4 ?><I 96      . "6       D85 9>3E=25>D 9>F5CDC E@ D?   1>4 D85 5>DB1>D 3? 9>F5CDC E@ D?.    

(124)     1C;9>7 6?B 1335CC 9> D85 B5=19>9>7 3?F5B54 1B51C B?=  G5 81F5  D81D 9C D?D1< 3?F5B175 453B51C5C G9D8 D85 457B55 ?6 E>35BD19>DI. "6  

(125)    D85 9>3E=25>D 9>F5CDC E@ D?    1>4 D85 5>DB1>D 3? 9>F5CDC 9> 1<<. 3?F5B54 1B51C /5 K>4 D81D.              

(126)  .       C9>35 

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(128) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. -#  "+. )! .( +-$(-2 )$(/ ,-' (- )/ +" $, $(, (,$-$/ -) .( +-$(-2 .( + *.+. )$(/ ,-' (- .-  + , , 0$-# .( +-$(-2 .( + )$(/ ,-' (- 0$-#  ,, ?B D85 21C5<9>5 =?45< G5 C8?G54 D81D D?D1< 3?F5B175 9C 89785B E>45B @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D D81> E>45B @EB5 1335CC ?B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D G9D8 1335CC C55 )B?@?C9D9?> 1>4 )B?@?C9D9?> . /85> D85B5 9C 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI D85 49R5B5>35 9> D?D1< 3?F5B175 9>3B51C5C G9D8 D85 457B55 ?6 E>35BD19>DI ,? D85 5HD5>D D81D D85 B57E<1D?B 61F?BC 9>F5CD=5>D 1 8978 457B55 ?6 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI D85> =1;5C D85 @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D B579=5 =?B5 45C9B12<5 3?=@1B54 D? D85 ?D85B B579=5C. .

(129) %$"*(!%$(. ">F5CD=5>DC 9> >5G 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5C 1B5 3BE391< 9> >5DG?B; 9>4ECDB95C 1C G5<< 1C D85 @B5C5B F1D9?> ?6 1 3?=@5D9D9F5 5>F9B?>=5>D 2ED D85 @B5C5>35 ?6 G8?<5C1<5 B57E<1D9?> 9>D5B65B5C G9D8 9>F5CD=5>D 9>35>D9F5C +?=5 >1D9?>1< B57E<1D?BC 81F5 9>DB?4E354 C@539K3 ?2<971D9?>C D? 3? 9>F5CD 9> @<135 ?6 ?B ?> D?@ ?6 CD1>41B4 1335CC ?2<971D9?>C /5 81F5 CDE4954 D85 B?<5 ?6 CE38 1> ?2<971D9?> D? 1<<?G 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 1>4 9DC 9>D5B@<1I G9D8 1335CC ?2<971D9?>C 9> 1 C5DD9>7 G85B5 1> 9>3E=25>D 9>F5CDC 9> 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5 3?F5B175 1>4 1> 5>DB1>D 31> EC5 D85 9>3E=25>DLC 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5 F91 1335CC 1>4 ?B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D. /5 81F5 C8?G> D81D 3? 9>F5CD=5>D @5B6?B=C 25DD5B 9> D5B=C ?6 D?D1< 3?F5B175 D81> D85 CD1>41B4 1335CC B579=5 (R5B9>7 1335CC D? D85 5>DB1>D D?? <514C D? 2?D8 <?G5B D?D1< 3?F5B175 1>4 <?G5B 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 3?F5B175 2531EC5 D85 1335CC ?@D9?> 3?>CD9DED5C 1> ?@@?BDE>9DI 3?CD D81D =1;5C 3? 9>F5CD=5>D <5CC 1DDB13D9F5 +D1BD9>7 6B?= 1 CD1>41B4 1335CC B579=5 G5<61B5 9C CDB93D<I 9>3B51C54 96 1 3? 9>F5CD=5>D ?2<971D9?> 9C 14454 ?> D85 ?D85B 81>4 1449>7 1335CC D? 3? 9>F5CD=5>D B54E35C G5<61B5 96 D85 1335CC @B935 9C B5<1D9F5<I <?G ,8EC E><5CC D85 B57E<1D?B 9C G9<<9>7 D? C5D 1 @?D5>D91<<I F5BI 8978 1335CC @B935 @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D <514C D? 89785B G5<61B5. /5 81F5 1<C? 3?>C945B54 D85 9=@13D ?6 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI ?> 9>6B1CDBE3DEB5 3?F5B175 1>4 C8?G> D81D D?D1< 3?F5B175 9C 9>C5>C9D9F5 D? D85 457B55 ?6 E>35BD19>DI E>45B @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D .

(130) Cooperative Investment, Access, and Uncertainty. G85B51C 9> D85 CD1>41B4 1335CC B579=5 1>4 G9D8 2?D8 1335CC 1>4 3? 9>F5CD=5>D D?D1< 3?F5B175 453B51C5C G9D8 D85 457B55 ?6 E>35BD19>DI B?= 1 @?<93I @5BC@53D9F5 ?EB B5CE<DC D85B56?B5 CE775CD D81D 1 @EB5 3? 9>F5CD=5>D B579=5 C8?E<4 25 @B565BB54 D? 1 @EB5 1335CC B579=5 ?B 1 B579=5 G9D8 3? 9>F5CD=5>D 1>4 1335CC 9> @1BD93E<1B G85> 45=1>4 E>35BD19>DI 9C 8978. EBD85B B5C51B38 G9<< 5H@<?B5 D85 5R53DC ?6 1CI==5DB95C 25DG55> 3? 9>F5CD?BC 9 5  9>3E= 25>3I 5R53DC 1>4 D85 38?935 ?6 BE<5C 6?B C81B9>7 9>F5CD=5>D 3?CDC 1>4 1335CC @B?KDC DG? 9>D5B5CD9>7 AE5CD9?>C D81D G5 81F5 >?D 3?>C945B54 9> D89C @1@5B. '$( ?EBB51E &  1=29>9   1>4 ?S 71> ) 

(131)  335CC )B939>7 ?=@5D9D9?> 1>4 "> 35>D9F5C D? &97B1D5 6B?= M(<4N D? M'5GN ,538>?<?7I  (- +(-$)(& ).+(& )! (.,-+$& +"($3-$)( 

(132)    . ?EBB51E &  1>4 ?S 71> ) 

(133)

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(135)

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(138)  B?1421>4 *57E<1D?BI +DB1D57I FC "=@<5=5>D1D9?> 9> %1D9> =5B931 1>4 -  &1B38. 4LC@B5=?>D   1>4 #13AE5=9>    ??@5B1D9F5 1>4 '?>3??@5B1D9F5 * 9> E?@?<I G9D8 +@9<<?F5BC  ' +$( )()'$  /$ 0   . .

(139) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. ?B?C T 

(140)

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(142)

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(144)

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(147)

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(149)  

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(153)

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(157)

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(159)   BD93<5 . .

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(161)    

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(163) . .   G9D8 

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(173) Marc Bourreau, Carlo Cambini, Steffen Hoernig. /5 1<C? 1CCE=5 D81D  9C CEQ395>D<I 8978 CE38 D81D 

(174)   

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(180)

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(185) 

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(187) 

(188)   999  

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(190)     . .

(191) Author contacts:. Marc Bourreau Telecom ParisTech Department of Economics and Social Sciences, and CREST-LEI Paris Email: marc.bourreau@telecom-paristech.fr. Carlo Cambini Politecnico di Torino, DIGEP Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24 I-10129 Torino. EUI - Florence School of Regulation Email: carlo.cambini@polito.it Steffen Hoernig Nova School of Business and Economics Universidade Nova de Lisboa Campus de Campolide 1099-032 Lisbon Portugal Email: shoernig@novasbe.pt.

(192)

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