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(1)EUI Working Papers RSCAS 2008/01. PIERRE WERNER CHAIR PROGRAMME ON MONETARY UNION. Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment. Giancarlo Corsetti, Philippe Martin and Paolo Pesenti.

(2) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES PIERRE WERNER CHAIR PROGRAMME. Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment GIANCARLO CORSETTI, PHILIPPE MARTIN AND PAOLO PESENTI. EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2008/01.

(3) This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). Requests should be addressed directly to the author(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper, or other series, the year and the publisher. The author(s)/editor(s) should inform the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the EUI if the paper will be published elsewhere and also take responsibility for any consequential obligation(s).. ISSN 1028-3625. © 2008 Giancarlo Corsetti, Philippe Martin and Paolo Pesenti Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ http://cadmus.eui.eu.

(4) Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS), directed by Stefano Bartolini since September 2006, is home to a large post-doctoral programme. Created in 1992, it aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research and to promote work on the major issues facing the process of integration and European society. The Centre hosts major research programmes and projects, and a range of working groups and ad hoc initiatives. The research agenda is organised around a set of core themes and is continuously evolving, reflecting the changing agenda of European integration and the expanding membership of the European Union. Details of this and the other research of the Centre can be found on: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Research/ Research publications take the form of Working Papers, Policy Papers, Distinguished Lectures and books. Most of these are also available on the RSCAS website: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ The EUI and the RSCAS are not responsible for the opinion expressed by the author(s). Pierre Werner Chair Programme on Monetary Union The Pierre Werner Chair Programme on Monetary Union, named in memory of Pierre Werner, one of the architects of economic and monetary union, is funded through the generosity of the Luxembourg Government. The principal focus of the programme is economic policy and the political economy of European monetary integration. The programme aims at identifying policy priorities consistent with the new European economic constitution, as well as the factors that can foster economic growth and prosperity in a stable macroeconomic environment at both regional and global levels. For further information: Pierre Werner Chair Programme on Monetary Union Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies European University Institute Via delle Fontanelle, 19 I - 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy E-mail: pwcprog@eui.eu http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Research/Economy/.

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(92) #C DJG BD9:A L>I= BDCDEDA>HI>8 8DBE:I>I>DC 6C9 ADK: ;DG K6G>:IN =DL:K:G I=: :Y:8I D; =DB: 7>6H DC 9:B6C9 >H 8DBE:CH6I:9 ;DG I=: 8G:6I>DC D; C:L K6G>:I>:H >C G:HEDCH: ID 6 IG6CH;:G. L=>8= I=:C 6II:CJ6I:H DG :A>B>C6I:H 6AID<:I=:G I=: C::9 ;DG 6 G:A6I>K: EG>8: 8=6C<:

(93) #C DJG FJ6CI>I6I>K: H>BJA6I>DCH I=: BD9:A >H 86A>7G6I:9 ID /

(94) -

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(99). EUI-WP RSCAS 2008/01 © 2008 Giancarlo Corsetti, Philippe Martin and Paolo Pesenti. 3.

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(104)  E:G8:CI G:HE:8I>K:AN

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(109)  6C9 

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(113)  E:G8:CI 6C9 BJ8= A:HH I=6C >BEDGIH ;GDB 67GD69   E:G8:CI

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(116) )JG 7:C8=B6G@ 86A>7G6I>DC HJ<<:HIH 6 C:<6I>K: 6CHL:G

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(118) #C DI=:G LDG9H I=: :FJ>A>7G>JB BDK:B:CI >C >CI:GC6I>DC6A G:A6I>K: EG>8:H >H D7K>DJHAN 6 ;JC8I>DC D; I=: HE:8>P8 ;:6IJG:H D; B68GD:8DCDB>8 69?JHIB:CI I=:G: 6G: 9>Y:G:CI EDHH>7A: 8DB7>C6I>DCH D; FJ6CI>IN 6C9 EG>8: 69?JHIB:CI I=6I 6G: 8DCH>HI:CI L>I= 6 <>K:C 8DGG:8I>DC >C  DG >CHI6C8: I=:H: P<JG:H 6G: 8DBE6G67A: L>I= :ME:G>B:CIH 7N )7HI;:A9 6C9 ,D<DY  >C L=>8= DJIEJI D; IG6967A:H >H >C8G:6H:9 E6G6B:IG>86AAN 7N  E:G8:CI

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(121) :

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(124) ,:6A :MEDGI <GDLI= 6C9 9:8A>C>C< 8DCHJBEI>DC 6C9 >CK:HIB:CI HEJG 69?JHIB:CI

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(126) #; 6CNI=>C< A6G<: 6C9 E:GH>HI:CI 9:P8>IH >CKDAK: A:HH 9:EG:8>6I>DC I=6C 6K:G6<:

(127) ->B>A6G G:HJAIH 6G: G:EDGI:9 7N G6IOH8=:G. $JK:C6A 6C9 -6GCD  >C 6 I>B: H:G>:H 6C6ANH>H D; I=: /

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(131) Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment. G:A6I>K: L:6AI= 6C9 L:A;6G:

(132) #C DJG H>BJA6I>DCH L=:G: IG6CH;:GH =6K: A6G<: :CIGN :M>I :Y:8IH. I=: R8DBE:I>I>K:C:HH EDH>I>DCS D; I=: G:HI D; I=: LDGA9 9:I:G>DG6I:H HJ7HI6CI>6AAN :K:C I=DJ<= 8=6C<:H >C I=: I:GBH D; IG69: 6C9 G:A6I>K: A67DG 8DHIH 6G: 8DCI6>C:9

(133) .=: 9:<G:: D; :8DCDB>8 Q:M>7>A>IN >C9:M:9 7N I=: 8DHI D; :CIGN 6Y:8IH I=: B6<C>IJ9: D; G:A6I>K: EG>8: BDK:B:CIH 6 =><=:G 8DCK:M>IN D; I=: 8DHI D; EGD9J8I 9>Y:G:CI>6I>DC =6H DCAN 6 B>CDG >BE68I DC :BEADNB:CI 6C9 8DCHJBEI>DC 7JI 8A:6GAN B6<C>P:H G:6A :M8=6C<: G6I: BDK:B:CIH G:A6I>K: ID FJ6CI>IN 69?JHIB:CI

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(136)  E:G8:CI

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(144) -:8I>DC  EG:H:CIH 6 FJ6CI>I6I>K: 6HH:HHB:CI

(145) -:8I>DC  8DC8AJ9:H

(146). .  *($)( &(%"# (, ) * &(%+* ,( * ) $ ("* , &( ) $ * "%" %$%#/. . *(+*+( % * #%". .=: LDGA9 :8DCDBN 8DCH>HIH D; ILD 8DJCIG>:H "DB: 6C9 DG:><C W DG:><C K6G>67A:H 6G: 9:CDI:9 L>I= 6 HI6G

(147) #C :68= 8DJCIGN =DJH:=DA9H 8DCHJB: 6AA K6G>:I>:H D; <DD9H 6K6>A67A: >C I=: B6G@:I 7DI= 9DB:HI>86AAN EGD9J8:9 6C9 >BEDGI:9

(148) .=:N HJEEAN A67DG >C 6 8DBE:I>I>K: B6G@:I ID 9DB:HI>8 PGBH DCAN 7JI DLC 8A6>BH DC PGBHS EGDPIH LDGA9L>9:

(149) .=:G: 6G:  =DJH:=DA9H >C I=: "DB: 8DJCIGN 6C9  =DJH:=DA9H >C I=:. DG:><C 8DJCIGN

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(152) 68= PGB EGD9J8:H 6 H>C<A: <DD9 K6G>:IN 6C9 DE:G6I:H JC9:G 8DC9>I>DCH D; BDCDEDA>HI>8 8DBE:I>I>DC

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(154) .=:G: >H ;G:: :CIGN 7JI PGBH ;68: PM:9 :CIGN 8DHIH ID HI6GI EGD9J8I>DC D; 6 E6GI>8JA6G K6G>:IN

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(156) EUI-WP RSCAS 2008/01 © 2008 Giancarlo Corsetti, Philippe Martin and Paolo Pesenti. 5.

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(158) * 

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(160) * 

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(163) * . >BEDGI 8DBE:I>C< K6G>:I>:H 6G: >C9:M:9 7N % 

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(165) * 

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(167) .=: EGD9J8I>DC ;JC8I>DC D; I=: G:EG:H:CI6I>K: "DB: PGB EGD9J8>C< 6 HE:8>P8 K6G>:IN >H  &   & . '  

(168) 

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(172) .=: >9:6 JC9:GAN>C< DJG HE:8>P86I>DC D; I=: 8DHI ;JC8I>DC >H I=6I 6 =><=:G CJB7:G D; :M>HI>C< K6G>:I>:H DC I=: B6G@:I B6@:H >I BDG: 9>X8JAI ;DG PGBH ID 9>Y:G:CI>6I: I=:>G EGD9J8IH G:A6I>K: ID I=: 8DBE:I>I>DC G6>H>C< I=: 8DHIH D; B6G@:I>C< 6C9 69K:GI>H>C< 6HHD8>6I:9 L>I= I=: >CIGD9J8I>DC D; 6 C:L K6G>:IN DG 7G6C9

(173) .=: E6G6B:I:G  B:6HJG:H I=: H:CH>I>K>IN D; I=:H: 8DHIH ID I=: CJB7:G D; H:8IDG6A K6G>:I>:H

(174) #C 699>I>DC H=>EE>C< <DD9H 67GD69 :CI6>AH IG6CHEDGI6I>DC 8DHIH 9:CDI:9 7N  6C9 :M EG:HH:9 >C JC>IH D; I=: :MEDGI <DD9 W I=JH BD9:AA:9 6H R>8:7:G<S 8DHIH

(175) .=: G:HDJG8: 8DCHIG6>CIH ;DG :68= K6G>:IN D; "DB: <DD9H 6G: I=:G:;DG:  &    & .  &    & .  &          & . . L=:G:  &  >H E:G 86E>I6 8DCHJBEI>DC D; <DD9 & >C I=: "DB: 8DJCIGN &  >H E:G 86E>I6 8DCHJBEI>DC D; <DD9 & 7N I=: G:EG:H:CI6I>K: "DB: G:H>9:CI 6C9   &  >H 8DCHJBEI>DC D; <DD9 & 7N I=: G:EG:H:CI6I>K: DG:><C G:H>9:CI

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(177) Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment. B6G@:I >H  . 

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(180)  H>B>A6G CDI6I>DC =DA9H >C I=:. DG:><C 8DJCIGN

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(186)  . . .

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(189)

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(191) 

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