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(1)

Impact and Implications of the

COVID-19 Pandemic on air quality in Lombardy, Italy

Guido Lanzani, Mauro Mussin, Umberto Dal Santo, Anna Di Leo, Alessandro Marongiu, Giuseppe Fossati, Elisabetta Angelino

ARPA LOMBARDIA

2020 Beijing International Forum for Metropolitan Clean Air and Climate Actions

September 8th, 2020

(2)

Milan, Lombardia, Po Valley: where and how many

• Inhabitants: 10 milion

• Population density:

419inab/km2

Lombardia Region

• Inhabitants: 1,3 milion

• Population

density:7.272inab/km2

City of Milan

– Po Valley: closed by mountains exceeding 2500 m a.s.l. on three sides (highest peaks exceeding 4000 m a.s.l.)

– Meteorological conditions often adverse to air pollution dispersion

Po Valley

• Inhabitants: 24 milion

• Population density:

264 inab/km2

(3)

Milan, Lombardia, Po Valley: where and how many

The «COVID-19 lockdown» in Lombardia and in Italy

22 February - 7 March 2020

• Quarantine in small areas (red zones - 50.000 people):

• Ban of leaving houses except for supplying food and medicines

• Closing of schools in Lombardia

• Progressive closing of schools in Po Valley

• Progressive reduction of unnecessary travel and meeting in Po Valley

8 March –

21 March 2020

• Quarantine of the whole Northern Italy (16 M people)

• Restricting travel from, to or within the affected areas, banning funerals and cultural events, and requiring people to keep at least one meter of distance from one another in public locations

• Commercial and retail businesses except those providing essential services closed down

• Progressive extension of measures to the whole Italy

22 March – 3 May 2020

• Shutting down all not-necessary businesses and industries

(4)

The effects of «lockdown» - pressure factors

Traffic Industrial activities

Energy production

Domestic heating

Agriculture breeding

(5)

The effects of «lockdown» - pressure factors – Traffic

Traffic on road decreased significatively, both in urban areas and on highways:

minus 80% – 90% cars

minus 70% - 80% light duty vehicles

minus 50% - 60% heavy duty vehicles Cars - urban

Air traffic decreased of more than 90%

https://www.arpalombardia.it/sites/DocumentCenter/Docume nts/Aria%20-

%20Relazioni%20approfondimento/report%20stima%20emissi va%20COVID%2019%20lombardia_aprile20.pdf

(6)

The effects of «lockdown» - pressure factors – industry

Energy load decreased of 20% – 30%

(source: Terna https://www.terna.it/it/sistema- elettrico/transparency-report/total-load)

Natural gas used in industry decreased of 20 – 30%

https://www.arpalombardia.it/sites/DocumentCenter/Docume nts/Aria%20-

%20Relazioni%20approfondimento/report%20stima%20emissi va%20COVID%2019%20lombardia_aprile20.pdf

(7)

The effects of «lockdown» - pressure factors – domestic heating

Domestic heating of private houses increased of 3 – 6%

Heating of buildings for commercial and services sectors decreased of 70% – 80%

https://www.arpalombardia.it/sites/DocumentCenter/Docume nts/Aria%20-

%20Relazioni%20approfondimento/report%20stima%20emissi va%20COVID%2019%20lombardia_aprile20.pdf

(8)

The effects of «lockdown» - agriculture

The activities in agriculture and breeding sectors

remained substantially unchanged

(9)

The effects of «lockdown» - emissions

On the base of:

- the emission inventory - the trend of activities during the lockdown we calculated the variation in emissions

First red zones Lockdown Lombardia Full Lockdown

February March

(10)

The effects of «lockdown» - emissions

The reduction of emissions in the strickter lockdown phase was estimated in:

• Around 30 – 40% for NOx

(with a significant contribution from traffic, considering the reduction in flows of about 80% for light vehicles and 50-60% of heavy trade)

• Around 7 - 14% for primary PM10 and VOC

(reduction from traffic and industry partially balanced by increased heating emissions)

• ammonia emissions are not substantially reduced

(considering that agricultural and livestock activities, did not change significantly during the

lockdown the change around 1% due to the reduction in traffic)

(11)

What happened to air quality? The case of NO2

We performed different types of analysis on the base of the data of air quality network

Milano (average 3 stations: Marche Liguria Senato – Daily average NO2

Running 7 Running 7

(12)

What happened to air quality? The case of NO2

Also in the whole Po Valley, NO and NO2 decreased to the lowest values of the period

• NO – 58%,

• NO2 – 38%

in traffic stations

compared to the mean in the period 2016 - 2019

source:

(13)

What happened to air quality? The case of PM10

The trend for PM10 is less evident.

On average, in Po Valley, during lockdown it decreased from 19% in traffic stations and of 15% in background stations

source:

(14)

What happened to air quality? The case of PM10 in Milan

(15)

What happened to air quality? The case of PM10 in Milan

Daily averages

(16)

What happened to air quality? The case of PM10 in Milan

From 17° to 22° of March: secondary PM10 formation

NH3 Daily averages

0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 80,00 90,00 100,00

01-mar-20 02-mar-20 03-mar-20 04-mar-20 05-mar-20 06-mar-20 07-mar-20 08-mar-20 09-mar-20 10-mar-20 11-mar-20 12-mar-20 13-mar-20 14-mar-20 15-mar-20 16-mar-20 17-mar-20 18-mar-20 19-mar-20 20-mar-20 21-mar-20 22-mar-20 23-mar-20 24-mar-20 25-mar-20 26-mar-20 27-mar-20 28-mar-20 29-mar-20

PM10 composition MIlan Senato

ammonium nitrate + ammonium solfate (µg/m³) PM10 (µg/m³)

(17)

What happened to air quality? The case of PM10 in Milan

From 28° to 29° of March: transport of dust from desert

(18)

Conclusions

• The lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic led to a reduction in some pressure factors:

Traffic decreased significatively, industry reduced activities of 1/3rd . Domestic heating increased (slightly) and agriculture remained substantially unchanged

• So, emissions of NOx and other pollutants more directly linked to traffic decreased in a remarkable way. Emissions of other pollutants had had a less pronounced

trend (for the period)

• Consequently, NO2 concentrations decreased in an evident way. PM10, both for the probable increase in primary emissions from wood combustion in domestic heating and for its partially secondary nature, showed a less clear trend

• The unwanted experiment during lockdown has once again confirmed that to

improve air quality it is necessary to act not only sectorialy but on all the sources,

(19)

Preliminary results of the effects of «lockdown» - Emissions

First red zones Lockdown Lombardia Full Lockdown

February March

Thank you for your attention

Riferimenti

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