WEBINAR 11 - Pratiche di Sostenibilità – 20 marzo 2014 – Profilo Climatico locale

Profilo Climatico Locale

Rodica Tomozeiu Lucio Botarelli

[email protected], [email protected] ARPA E-R

Servizio IdroMeteoClima www.arpa.emr.it

webinar 20 Marzo 2014

Observed global climate changes

Increase of the global temperature is more significant from the 90‘s

Decrease of precipitation in

Europe

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

A n o m al ia T m e d

Anomalia di temperatura media annuale

T_globale T_Italia T_Bologna

Anomaly of the yearly mean temperature (vs 1961-1990)

Observed climate variability

(http://www.arpa.emr.it/sim/?clima)

Precipitation anomaly 1991-2008 vs 1961-1990 Temperature anomaly 1991-2008 vs 1961-1990

Observed climate variability

at regional level

Observed climate variability at regional level

-400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

anomalia [mm]

anni Trend= -16mm/10 years

Yearly precipitation (deviation from the avarage 1961-1990)

E-R regional mean

Observed climate variability at regional level

-400,0 -300,0 -200,0 -100,0 0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

mm

anni

Andamento BIC medio annuale su Emilia-Romagna

Yearly climatic water balance (E-R region)

Observed climate variability at regional level

strongest signal during summer

-1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

C°

anni

Scarto medio annuale della Tmed in Emilia-Romagna clima di riferimento 1961-1990

Anomaly of summer Tmax (JJA) E-R regional mean

Increase of 0,5°C/10 years

(from 1986 always over mean climate reference value)

Temperatura massima S. P. Capofiume (pianura BO)

20 22.5 25 27.5 30 32.5 35 37.5 40

01/06/12 06/06/12

11/06/12 16/06/12

21/06/12 26/06/12

01/07/12 06/07/12

11/07/12 16/07/12

21/07/12 26/07/12

31/07/12 05/08/12

10/08/12 15/08/12

20/08/12 25/08/12

30/08/12 giorni

°C

Tmax2012 Tmax2003 Tmax clima giugno

Tmax clima luglio

Tmax clima agosto

Heat waves (>35°C) summer 2012 vs summer 2003 (regional central plan)

Observed climate variability

Progressive decrease of the number of rainy days since late 90s‘

2012 Moving avarage on 5 years

frequency of rainy days during spring-summer (regional central plan)

Observed climate variability

Consecutive dry days, summer 2012

Consecutive dry days, summer 2003

Observed climate variability

at regional level

Summer

climatic water balance 2012 vs 2003

Observed climate variability

at regional level

Soil humidity

2003 2007

2012

Observed climate variability

at regional level

decrease of air relative humidity

Mann-Kendall test significant

Relative humidity (%, year)

summer trend 1987-2012

Observed climate variability at regional level

NDVI

Observed climate variability at regional level

Extending seasonal (warmer autumns) Advance in seasonality (early spring)

Longer growing season (limited by water availability) Warm winters (2006-2007, 2013-2014)

Observed climate variability

Observed climate variability at regional level

severe rains and floods

heat waves and drought heavy snowfalls Increase of extreme events

strong anomalies

Observed climate variability at urban scale

• Decrease of frost days during winter

• Increase of heat waves

• Increase of the consecutive dry days

Ondate di calore (HWD) estive e il valore climatico di riferimento(linea tratteggiata) a Bologna

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 anni

gmax.giorni consecutivi

HWD clima_HWD

Winter temporal variability of frost days- bologna

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years

No.of days

Observed climate variability in Bologna

Heat waves Frost days

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

giorni

anni Andamento temporale del numero massimo di giorni consecutivi senza precipitazione-stagione estiva, Bologna (periodo 1951-2011)

Consecutive dry days

Aim

Climate change scenarios of

seasonal minimum and maximum temperature periods 2021-2050 and 2070-2099

Emission scenario A1B

future climate projections

Emission scenarios

future climate projections

Tools:

 Global Climate Models (GCM);

 Regional Climate models(RCM)

 Statistical Models (DS)

Statistical Downscaling (SD): based on the statistical relationship between local climate variables and large scale atmospheric

variables.

Regional Climate Models (RCM) or Dynamical Downscaling (DD):

nested into the global model

AOGCM

RCM

Developed by ARPA-SIMC

… from CGCMs to RCMs and SDs

Global Continental

Regional

Local

National

Climate projection from global to local

2 4

CORDEX, Brussels 4-7 November 2013

 information at station (or grid point) level;

 derive variables not always available from RCMs/GCM (i.e. extremes);

 SD is simple and computationally inexpensive.

Strengths

Weakness

 need long and homogeneous observational time series for fitting and validating the statistical relationship;

 link between predictors and predictands have to be stable in time…

Statistical downscaling

Solution ?

CCAReg applied to the GCMs

Ensemble Mean (EM)

a) GLOBAL EMISSION SCENARIO

b) GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS

c) STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODELS

d) IMPACT

MODELS

Uncertainty: how to manage it ?

PDFs of climate change

projections of multi-model

ensemble mean (EM)

Tmin

Tmax

DJF

DJF

Climate projections: temperature

winter (DJF) Tmin and Tmax in Northern Italy

2021-2050

Tmin

Tmax

Note:

warming in all seasons with mean values up to 1.8°C

(summer)

significant shits in the tails of the distributions

… other seasons 2021-2050

Tmin

Tmax

Note:

Peak of warming during summer

All the seasons ^2070-2099

Seasonal observational data from 75 stations, over Northern Italy (source (http://www.scia.sinanet.apat.it/);

Daily minimum and maximum temperature from 25 observational stations in Emilia-Romagna region

Period: 1960-2002

Data

3 0 DTmin_DJF (°C) DTmax_JJA(°C)

2021-2050

2070-2099

DTmin_DJF(°C) DTmax_JJA (°C)

Spatial patterns of projected changes in temperature

EM 2021-2050 and 2070-2099, A1B

Projected changes of seasonal frost days (EM) and Ice days 2021-2050 and

2070-2099 Projected changes of seasonal number of

frost days and ice days, 2021-2050 and 2070-2099

What about “cold extremes” in

Emilia-Romagna?

Conclusions

 significant increases are projected to occur in minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy in all seasons, during the period 2021-2050. The Ensemble Mean computed using all runs (8 runs for each season) projects for each season, a change in the mean of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperature around 1.5- 2°C over N-Italy;

 the magnitude of changes is greater to the end of the century, namely for the period 2070-2099, when the mean of the distributions of EM showed an increase around 3°C (mean over all the stations) during winter, spring and autumn;

 the peak of changes is projected to occur during summer

season, for both minimum and maximum temperature, with an

increase in the mean around 4°C (mean over the stations from

N-Italy), with respect to present climate 1961-1990;

…

 the warming is projected to be more intense in the Po Valley, especially to the end of the century;

 the lower and upper tail of the PDFs of minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to shift to warmer values, with increases up to 2°C in lower and up to 6°C;

 a significant decrease of the seasonal number of frost days and winter ice days is projected to occur over Emilia- Romagna, more intense to the end of the century ( for example during spring could disappear).

Conclusions

Thanks for your kind attention