The price-price Phillips curve in small open economies andmonetary unions

Working Paper Series Department of Economics

University of Verona

The price-price Phillips curve in small open economies and monetary unions

Andrea Vaona

WP Number: 6 April 2011

+96 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 :? ∆>2== ≅Α6?

64≅?≅>:6∆ 2?5 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?∆

A?5Χ62 −2≅?2

,?:Γ6Χ∆:Εϑ ≅7 −6Χ≅?2 (D6Α2ΧΕ>6?Ε ≅7 E4≅?≅>:4 ∗4:6?46∆), −:2 56==Ο2ΧΕ:8=:6Χ6 19, 37129 −6Χ≅?2, Ε2=ϑ. E->2:=: 2?5Χ62.Γ2≅?2@Φ?:ΓΧ.:Ε. ∋9≅?6:

+390458028537

∀:6= ?∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 7≅Χ Ε96 .≅Χ=5 E4≅?≅>ϑ

+96 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 :? ∆>2== ≅Α6?

64≅?≅>:6∆ 2?5 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?∆

Ab∗+)ac+

+9:∆ Α2Α6Χ 6ΙΕ6?5∆ Ε96 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆ / Α2ΧΕ:2==ϑ 252ΑΕ:Γ6 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6, ≅Ε96ΧΗ:∆6 <?≅Η? 2∆ ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6, 7Χ≅> 2 4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ 4≅?Ε6ΙΕ Ε≅ 2? ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ ≅?6 Η:Ε9 3≅Ε9 4≅>>≅5:Εϑ ΕΧ256 2?5 42Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ. .6 2=∆≅ 4≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 42∆6 ≅7 2 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅? (2 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ) Η:Ε9 ΕΗ≅ >6>36Χ ∆Ε2Ε6∆ (Χ68:≅?∆). &Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε 2=Ε6Χ∆ Ε96 ∆=≅Α6

≅7 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 :? 2? 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆ Η2ϑ 2?5 :Ε >2<6∆ :Ε∆ Α≅∆:Ε:≅? 2 7Φ?4- Ε:≅? ≅7 Ε96 492?86 ≅7 7≅Χ6:8? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ Ε≅≅. &Α6?:?8 Ε96 42Α:Ε2= 244≅Φ?Ε, 27Ε6Χ

≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 ≅?6, 5≅6∆ ?≅Ε 2Ρ64Ε Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6. .:Ε9:? 2 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?, Ε96 =:?< 36ΕΗ66? Ε96 ∆:Κ6 ≅7 2 Χ68:≅? 2?5 :Ε∆ Η6:89Ε :? Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆

4ΦΧΓ6 92∆ 2? a priori 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆ ∆:8?. &?46 Χ6∆≅ΧΕ:?8 Ε≅ Α=2Φ∆:3=6 ?Φ>6Χ:42=

∆:>Φ=2Ε:≅?∆, 64≅?≅>:4 ≅Α6??6∆∆ Χ65Φ46∆ Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅. )682Χ5:?8 2 >≅?- 6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?, 288Χ682Ε6 :?Μ2Ε:≅? :∆ >≅Χ6 2Ρ64Ε65 3ϑ Χ68:≅?2= Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε 5ϑ?2>:4∆ Ε96 8Χ62Ε6Χ :∆ Ε96 Η6:89Ε ≅7 Ε96 Χ68:≅? :? 288Χ682Ε6 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 2?5 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ.

Ke0.∋)d∗: 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆, Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε, ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6, :?Μ2Ε:≅?, 252ΑΕ:Γ6 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆

JEL c∃a∗∗∀1ca+∀∋& c∋de∗: E3, E20, E40, E50.

1 I&+)∋d,c+∀∋&

? Χ646?Ε ϑ62Χ∆, Ε96 25Γ2?46 ≅7 8=≅32=:Κ2Ε:≅? 244ΧΦ65 64≅?≅>:∆Ε∆Ο:?Ε6Χ6∆Ε :?

Ε96 6Ρ64Ε ≅7 ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 42Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ ≅? Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, ?2>6=ϑ Ε96 Χ2Ε:≅ 36ΕΗ66? Ε≅Ε2= ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ =≅∆∆6∆ (≅Χ :?4Χ62∆6∆ :? Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6) 2?5 Ε96 492?86 :? ΕΧ6?5 :?Μ2Ε:≅? ≅Γ6Χ Ε96 4≅ΦΧ∆6 ≅7 2 5:∆:?Μ2Ε:≅?.

D2?:6=∆ 2?5 −2? H≅≅∆6 (2009, 2010) 92Γ6 Χ646?Ε=ϑ ≅Ρ6Χ65 Χ6Γ:6Η∆ ≅7 Ε96 Χ6=6Γ2?Ε =:Ε6Χ2ΕΦΧ6. ∋2Ε9-3Χ62<:?8 Α2Α6Χ∆ Η6Χ6 )≅>6Χ (1993), #2?6 (1997) 2?5 ∀2ΧΧ2∆ (1999). +96 ΛΧ∆Ε 4≅?ΕΧ:3ΦΕ:≅? :?Ε6ΧΑΧ6Ε65 2 ?682Ε:Γ6 4Χ≅∆∆- 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ Χ6=2Ε:≅?∆9:Α 36ΕΗ66? ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 Ε96 :?Μ2Ε:≅? Χ2Ε6 2∆ Ε96

≅ΦΕ4≅>6 ≅7 Χ65Φ465 82:?∆ 7≅Χ :?Μ2Ε:≅?2Χϑ Α≅=:4ϑ>2<:?8 Χ6∆Φ=Ε:?8 7Χ≅> ?682- Ε:Γ6 Ε6Χ>∆-≅7-ΕΧ256 6Ρ64Ε∆ ≅7 5≅>6∆Ε:4 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 6ΙΑ2?∆:≅?∆ . +96 ∆64≅?5 4≅?ΕΧ:- 3ΦΕ:≅? ∆ΕΧ6∆∆65 Ε92Ε :?Μ2Ε:≅? ∆ΦΧΑΧ:∆6∆ 42? 92Γ6 2 ∆>2==6Χ :>Α24Ε ≅? Α≅Ε6?Ε:2=

≅ΦΕΑΦΕ ≅?46 2==≅Η:?8 7≅Χ ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆, ΕΧ2565 2?5 ?≅?-ΕΧ2565 8≅≅5∆, :>- Α6Χ764Ε 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:≅? 2?5 ∆Ε:4<ϑ ΑΧ:46∆. F:?2==ϑ, 244≅Χ5:?8 Ε≅ ∀2ΧΧ2∆ (1999), Η286 :?56Ι2Ε:≅? 5:∆4≅ΦΧ286∆ ∆≅7Ε >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Α≅=:4:6∆ ≅?46 ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε.

&? Ε96 7≅≅Ε∆Ε6Α∆ ≅7 #2?6 (1997), :>Α6Χ764Ε 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:≅? 2?5 ΑΧ:46/Η286

∆Ε:4<:?6∆∆ 92Γ6 366? <6ϑ :?8Χ65:6?Ε∆ ≅7 >≅56=∆ ΕΧϑ:?8 Ε≅ 6ΙΑ=2:? 9≅Η 3≅Ε9 ΕΧ256 2?5 42Α:Ε2= ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2Ρ64Ε Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6, ∆Φ49 2∆ Ε9≅∆6 ΑΧ≅Α≅∆65 3ϑ DΦ42 2?5 −2?H≅≅∆6 (2000), D2?:6=∆ 2?5 −2?H≅≅∆6 (2006, 2009, 2010),

#≅Φ?82?:, )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2001), )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002) 2?5 )2Κ:? 2?5

#≅Φ?82?: (2005). &7Ε6? Ε96∆6 >≅56=∆ ΑΧ≅5Φ465 2 Α≅∆:Ε:Γ6 4≅??64Ε:≅? 36ΕΗ66?

64≅?≅>:4 ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅. +9:∆ Χ6∆Φ=Ε :∆ Χ64≅?4:=65 Η:Ε9 Ε96 ∆Εϑ=:Κ65 724Ε Ε92Ε 8=≅32=:Κ2Ε:≅? Χ65Φ465 :?Μ2Ε:≅? 3ϑ 2Χ8Φ:?8 Ε92Ε :Ε 2=∆≅

492?865 Ε96 3692Γ:≅Χ ≅7 46?ΕΧ2= 32?<∆, 3ϑ :?4Χ62∆:?8 Ε96 Η6:89Ε ≅7 :?Μ2Ε:≅?

≅? Α≅=:4ϑ>2<6Χ∆Ο=≅∆∆ 7Φ?4Ε:≅?. ? 2 ∆:>:=2Χ Η2ϑ, 244≅Χ5:?8 Ε≅ GΧΦ36? 2?5

∃4#6≅5 (2002, 2004), Ε96 8Χ62Ε6Χ :∆ 42Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ, Ε96 >≅Χ6 46?ΕΧ2= 32?<∆

2Χ6 4≅>>:ΕΕ65 Ε≅ =≅Η :?Μ2Ε:≅?.

&? Ε96 6>Α:Χ:42= ∆:56 ≅7 Ε96 =:Ε6Χ2ΕΦΧ6, +6>Α=6 (2002) ΒΦ6∆Ε:≅?65 Ε96 Χ≅3Φ∆Ε?6∆∆ ≅7 2 ?682Ε:Γ6 4≅ΧΧ6=2Ε:≅? 36ΕΗ66? ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅.

F≅==≅Η:?8 Ε9:∆ 4≅?ΕΧ:3ΦΕ:≅?, D2?:6=∆ 6Ε 2=. (2005) 2?5 D2?:6=∆ 2?5 −2? H≅≅∆6 (2009) 7≅Φ?5 ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆ Ε≅ 92Γ6 2 Α≅∆:Ε:Γ6 4≅6Θ 4:6?Ε :? 2 Χ68Χ6∆∆:≅?

6ΙΑ=2:?:?8 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅ :? 58 5:∆:?Μ2Ε:≅?2Χϑ Α6Χ:≅5∆ :? Γ2Χ:≅Φ∆ &ECD 4≅Φ?ΕΧ:6∆ 7Χ≅> 1960 Ε9≅Χ≅Φ89 Ε96 1980∆, ≅?46 :?4=Φ5:?8 2? :?Ε6Χ24Ε:≅? Ε6Χ>

36ΕΗ66? :Ε 2?5 46?ΕΧ2= 32?< :?56Α6?56?46 (CB ). H≅Η6Γ6Χ, Ε96 >2Χ8:?2=

6Ρ64Ε ≅7 ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2Ε Ε96 2Γ6Χ286 Γ2=Φ6 ≅7 Ε96:Χ CB :?56Ι :∆ Γ6Χϑ 4=≅∆6 Ε≅

Κ6Χ≅. FΦΧΕ96Χ>≅Χ6, Η96? 244≅Φ?Ε:?8 ?≅Ε ≅?=ϑ 7≅Χ CB , 3ΦΕ 2=∆≅ 7≅Χ 6Ι492?86 Χ2Ε6 Α2∆∆-Ε9Χ≅Φ89, 8Χ62Ε6Χ ≅Α6??6∆∆ 92∆ 2? 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆ 6Ρ64Ε ≅? Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅ (D2?:6=∆ 2?5 −2?H≅≅∆6, 2010). ∗ΕΦ5ϑ:?8 2 ∆2>Α=6 ≅7 91 4≅Φ?ΕΧ:6∆ 7Χ≅>

1985 Ε≅ 2004, B25:?86Χ (2009) ΑΧ≅Γ:565 6>Α:Χ:42= ∆ΦΑΑ≅ΧΕ 7≅Χ Ε96 Χ62∆≅?:?8 Φ?56Χ=ϑ:?8 D2?:6=∆ 2?5 −2?H≅≅∆6 (2006, 2010) 2?5 )2Κ:? 2?5 #≅Φ?82?:

(2005), 3ΦΕ ?≅Ε Η96? 7≅4Φ∆:?8 ≅? &ECD 4≅Φ?ΕΧ:6∆ ≅?=ϑ.

+9:∆ 5632Ε6 Η2∆ 2=∆≅ >2Χ<65 3ϑ Ε96 ΑΧ6∆6?46 ≅7 ∆<6ΑΕ:42= 4≅?ΕΧ:3ΦΕ:≅?∆

Ε≅≅. +6ΧΧ2 (1998) 2?5 B=62?6ϑ (1999) ∆Φ886∆Ε65 Ε96 ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆-:?Μ2Ε:≅?

Χ6=2Ε:≅?∆9:Α Ε≅ 36 Χ6∆Α64Ε:Γ6=ϑ :==Φ∆≅Χϑ 2?5 Φ?∆Ε23=6 24Χ≅∆∆ Ε:>6. B2== (2006) ΒΦ6∆Ε:≅?65 2Ε 2== Ε96 6Ι:∆Ε6?46 ≅7 2 =:?< 36ΕΗ66? 64≅?≅>:4 ≅Α6??6∆∆ ≅? ≅?6

∆:56 2?5 6:Ε96Χ Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅ ≅Χ :?Μ2Ε:≅? ≅? Ε96 ≅Ε96Χ :? Ε96 ,∗. &?

Ε96 Ε96≅Χ6Ε:42= ∆:56, C2Γ6=22Χ∆ (2009) 492==6?865 Ε96 Ε6?6Ε Ε92Ε 46?ΕΧ2= 32?<∆

>:89Ε 36 >≅Χ6 4≅>>:ΕΕ65 Ε≅ =≅Η :?Μ2Ε:≅? :? >≅Χ6 ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>:6∆, ≅?46 5Χ≅ΑΑ:?8 Ε96 ∆>2== ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ 2∆∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅? 2?5 56Λ?:?8 :?4Χ62∆:?8 ≅Α6?-

?6∆∆ 2∆ 6:Ε96Χ 2 72== ≅7 ΕΧ256 4≅∆Ε∆ ≅Χ 2 564Χ62∆6 :? >≅?≅Α≅=ϑ Α≅Η6Χ. F:?2==ϑ, B≅Η5=6Χ (2009) 7≅Φ?5 :? 2 ∆2>Α=6 ≅7 41 4≅Φ?ΕΧ:6∆ ΧΦ??:?8 7Χ≅> 1981 Ε≅ 1998 2 Η62< ?682Ε:Γ6 4≅ΧΧ6=2Ε:≅? ≅7 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅∆ Η:Ε9 ≅Α6??6∆∆, Η9:49 :∆ ?≅Ε 2Ρ64Ε65 3ϑ Ε96 <:?5 ≅7 6Ι492?86 Χ2Ε6 Χ68:>6 :? Α=246.

G:Γ6? Ε9:∆ ∆Ε2Ε6 ≅7 Ε96 2ΧΕ, ?6Η Ε96≅Χ6Ε:42= >≅56=∆ 42? 9:89=:89Ε 7ΦΧ- Ε96Χ 492??6=∆ Ε9Χ≅Φ89 Η9:49 ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 42Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ 42? 2Ρ64Ε Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅. +9:∆ :∆ Ε96 492==6?86 Ε96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε Α2Α6Χ Η≅Φ=5 =:<6 Ε≅

>66Ε. ∗Α64:Λ42==ϑ, 3Φ:=5:?8 ≅? C2>Α36== (2006, 20082 2?5 20083), C2>Α36==

(20102) Χ646?Ε=ϑ ΑΧ≅Α≅∆65 2? 2=Ε6Χ?2Ε:Γ6 56Χ:Γ2Ε:≅? ≅7 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 Ε≅

Ε96 %6Η-∀6ϑ?6∆:2? 2?5 ∆Ε:4<ϑ :?7≅Χ>2Ε:≅? ≅?6∆, 3ϑ 25≅ΑΕ:?8 2? 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ

Η286∆ >≅56= Η:Ε9 :>Α6Χ764Ε :?7≅Χ>2Ε:≅?. +9:∆ ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 Η2∆ ?2>65 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6. +96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε Α2Α6Χ 6ΙΕ6?5∆ Ε96 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 7Χ≅> 2 4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ 4≅?Ε6ΙΕ Ε≅ 2? ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ ≅?6. A∆ 2 4≅?∆6ΒΦ6?46, :Ε ∆Ε2ϑ∆ Ε≅ C2>Α36== (20102) 2∆ )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002) ∆Ε2ϑ∆

Ε≅ .≅≅57≅Χ5 (2003).

? ≅Χ56Χ Ε≅ 244≅>Α=:∆9 Ε9:∆ Ε2∆< Η6 :?∆6ΧΕ C2>Α36==Ο∆ >≅56= Η:Ε9:? 2?

:?Ε6ΧΕ6>Α≅Χ2= ≅ΑΕ:>:Κ2Ε:≅? 7Χ2>6Η≅Χ<, 3ϑ 5Χ2Η:?8 Ε96≅Χ6Ε:42= :?∆:89Ε∆ 2=∆≅

7Χ≅> D2?Ε9:?6 2?5 ∀ΦΧ>2?? (2004) 2?5 &3∆Ε76=5 2?5 )≅8≅Ρ (1996). ? ∆≅

5≅:?8 Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002), Η6 42? 9:89=:89Ε 7ΦΧΕ96Χ Ε96≅- Χ6Ε:42= >6492?:∆>∆ Ε92Ε 42? ≅Ρ6Χ 2? :?ΕΦ:Ε:≅? 7≅Χ Ε96 6Ι:∆Ε6?46 ≅7 2 ∋9:==:Α∆

4ΦΧΓ6 2?5 9≅Η :Ε :∆ 2Ρ64Ε65 3ϑ ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 2?5 42Α:Ε2= 244≅Φ?Ε∆. +96∆6

>6492?:∆>∆ 2Χ6 5:∆4Φ∆∆65 36=≅Η. .92Ε :∆ >≅Χ6, Η6 4≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 42∆6 ≅7 2 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ (≅Χ ≅Ε96ΧΗ:∆6 2 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?) 4≅>Α≅∆65 ≅7 ΕΗ≅ Χ68:≅?∆ (>6>36Χ

∆Ε2Ε6∆) 2?5 Η6 56Χ:Γ6 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 7≅Χ Ε9:∆ 42∆6 2∆ Η6==. &ΦΧ ΑΦΧΑ≅∆6 96Χ6 :∆ Ε≅ Φ?56Χ∆Ε2?5 Η96Ε96Χ Ε96 =2Χ86Χ :∆ 2 Χ68:≅?, Ε96 8Χ62Ε6Χ :∆ :Ε∆ Η6:89Ε :? Ε96 288Χ682Ε6 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6. +96Χ67≅Χ6, Ε96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε 4≅?ΕΧ:3ΦΕ:≅? :∆ 2=∆≅

Ε2?86?Ε:2= Ε≅ Ε96 ∆ΕΧ62> ≅7 =:Ε6Χ2ΕΦΧ6 ≅Χ:8:?2Ε65 3ϑ B6?:8?≅ (2004), B66Ε∆>2 2?5 !6?∆6? (2005) 2?5 #≅>32Χ5≅ (2006), Η9≅∆6 >2:? Ε2Χ86Ε 9≅Η6Γ6Χ :∆ ?≅Ε 6ΙΑ=2:?:?8 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, Χ2Ε96Χ ∆ΕΦ5ϑ:?8 Ε96 4≅?5Φ4Ε ≅7 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ 2?5 Λ∆42= Α≅=:4:6∆ :? 2 4ΦΧΧ6?4ϑ Φ?:≅? Φ?56Χ 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε 2∆∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅?∆ Χ682Χ5:?8 Ε96 64≅?≅>:4 ∆ΕΧΦ4ΕΦΧ6 ≅7 Ε96 >6>36Χ ∆Ε2Ε6∆. #2∆Ε 3ΦΕ ?≅Ε =62∆Ε, Η6 ΑΧ≅Α≅∆6 2?

2=Ε6Χ?2Ε:Γ6 2?5 ∆:>Α=6Χ ΑΧ≅465ΦΧ6 Ε≅ 56Χ:Γ6 Ε96 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6.

+96 Χ6∆Ε ≅7 Ε9:∆ Α2Α6Χ :∆ ∆ΕΧΦ4ΕΦΧ65 2∆ 7≅==≅Η∆. F:Χ∆Ε Ε96 >≅56= :∆ :?ΕΧ≅- 5Φ465. A7Ε6ΧΗ2Χ5∆, Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε ≅7 Ε96 64≅?≅>ϑ :∆ ≅Α6?65, 7≅==≅Η65 3ϑ Ε96 42Α:Ε2= ≅?6. .6 Ε96? 4≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 42∆6 ≅7 Ε96 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅? 2?5

≅Ρ6Χ ∆≅>6 ?Φ>6Χ:42= Χ6∆Φ=Ε∆. +96 =2∆Ε ∆64Ε:≅? ∆Φ>>2Χ:Κ6∆ ≅ΦΧ Λ?5:?8∆. +96 AΑΑ6?5:Ι :==Φ∆ΕΧ2Ε6∆ ≅ΦΧ ∆≅=ΦΕ:≅? ΑΧ≅465ΦΧ6.

2 T!e %∋de∃

2.1 T!e !∋,∗e!∋∃d∗2()∋b∃e% a&d +!e ∋−e)&%e&+ b,d- e+ c∋&∗+)a∀&+

.6 7≅==≅Η D2?Ε9:?6 2?5 ∀ΦΧ>2?? (2004), 3ϑ ∆ΦΑΑ≅∆:?8 Ε96 5≅>6∆Ε:4 64≅?-

≅>ϑ Ε≅ 36 Α≅ΑΦ=2Ε65 3ϑ 2 4≅?Ε:?ΦΦ> ≅7 9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ ?≅Χ>2=:Κ65 Ε≅ %, 6249 4≅>Α≅∆65 3ϑ 2 4≅?Ε:?ΦΦ> ≅7 :?5:Γ:5Φ2=∆ ?≅Χ>2=:Κ65 Ε≅ 1. +96 ?Φ>36Χ ≅7 7≅Χ- 6:8? 9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ :∆ :?∆Ε625 ?≅Χ>2=:Κ65 Ε≅ 1 %. H≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ >2Ι:>:Κ6 Ε96:Χ 5:∆4≅Φ?Ε65 ΦΕ:=:Εϑ

f^{ct+i(h);Bt+i(h);B}maxt+i^ (h);et+i(h);Mt+i(h)g X1

i=0

^t+iE

 U



c_t+i(!) ; Lt+i(!) G [et+i(!)] ;M_t+i(!) Pt+i



(1)

∆Φ3;64Ε Ε≅ 2 ∆6Χ:6∆ ≅7 :?4≅>6 4≅?∆ΕΧ2:?Ε∆

ct+i(!) = Wt+i(!)

P_t+i Lt+i(!) + Tt+i(!) P_t+i

Mt+i(!)

P_t+i +Mt+i 1(!)

P_t+i + t+i(!) Bt+i(!)

P_t+i +Bt+i 1(!)

P_t+i (1 + ∀_{t+i 1}) _t+iB_t+i^ (!)

P_t+i + _{t+i 1;t+i}B_{t+i 1}^ (!)

P_t+i 1 + ∀^_{t+i 1}
Η96Χ6  :∆ Ε96 5:∆4≅Φ?Ε 724Ε≅Χ, E :∆ Ε96 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅? ≅Α6Χ2Ε≅Χ, U :∆ Ε96 ΦΕ:=:Εϑ

7Φ?4Ε:≅?, ct+i(!) :∆ 4≅?∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅? ≅7 9≅Φ∆69≅=5 ! 2Ε Ε:>6 ( + ∀, Bt+i(!) 2Χ6 Ε96 9≅Φ∆69≅=5Ο∆ 5≅>6∆Ε:4 3≅?5 9≅=5:?8∆, ∀t+i :∆ Ε96 ?≅>:?2= 5≅>6∆Ε:4 :?Ε6Χ6∆Ε Χ2Ε6, Lt+i(!) :∆ Ε96 7Χ24Ε:≅? ≅7 6>Α=≅ϑ65 :?5:Γ:5Φ2=∆ Η:Ε9:? Ε96 9≅Φ∆69≅=5, G[e_t+i(!)] :∆ Ε96 5:∆ΦΕ:=:Εϑ ≅7 6Ρ≅ΧΕ - e_t+i(!) - ≅7 Ε96 ΕϑΑ:42= Η≅Χ<:?8 72>- :=ϑ >6>36Χ, M_t+i(!) :∆ ?≅>:?2= >≅?6ϑ 32=2?46∆ 2?5 P_t+i Ε96 ΑΧ:46 =6Γ6=.

Wt+i(!) 2?5 Tt+i(!) 2Χ6 Ε96 9≅Φ∆69≅=5Ο∆ ?≅>:?2= Η286 :?4≅>6 2?5 8≅Γ6Χ?-

>6?Ε ΕΧ2?∆76Χ∆ Χ6∆Α64Ε:Γ6=ϑ. t+i(!) :∆ Ε96 9≅Φ∆69≅=5Ο∆ ∆92Χ6 ≅7 ΛΧ> ΑΧ≅ΛΕ∆ :?

Χ62= Ε6Χ>∆. t:∆ Ε96 ∆Α≅Ε 6Ι492?86 Χ2Ε6 2?5 t+i 1;t+i:∆ Ε96 7≅ΧΗ2Χ5 6Ι492?86 Χ2Ε6 7≅Χ 7≅Χ6:8? 4ΦΧΧ6?4:6∆ ΑΦΧ492∆65/∆≅=5 2Ε Ε:>6 ( + ∀ 1 2?5 56=:Γ6Χ65 2Ε Ε:>6 (. F:?2==ϑ, 2∆Ε6Χ:∆<∆ 56?≅Ε6 7≅Χ6:8? Γ2Χ:23=6∆.

? Ε9:∆ 7Χ2>6Η≅Χ<, 9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆, 2?5 ?≅Ε :?5:Γ:5Φ2=∆, >2<6 2== Ε96 564:∆:≅?∆

Χ682Χ5:?8 4≅?∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅?, 5≅>6∆Ε:4 2?5 7≅Χ6:8? 3≅?5 9≅=5:?8∆, Χ62= >≅?6ϑ 32=- 2?46∆ 2?5 6Ρ≅ΧΕ. ?5:Γ:5Φ2=∆ 2Χ6 :56?Ε:42= 6Ι-2?Ε6, 3ΦΕ ?≅Ε 6Ι-Α≅∆Ε, 8:Γ6?

Ε92Ε ∆≅>6 ≅7 Ε96> 2Χ6 6>Α=≅ϑ65 - 36:?8 Χ2?5≅>=ϑ 2?5 4≅∆Ε=6∆∆=ϑ >2Ε4965 Η:Ε9 ΛΧ>∆ :?56Α6?56?Ε=ϑ 7Χ≅> Ε:>6 - 2?5 ∆≅>6 ≅Ε96Χ 2Χ6 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ65. +96 7Χ24Ε:≅? ≅7 Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ65 :∆ Ε96 ∆2>6 24Χ≅∆∆ 2== Ε96 72>:=:6∆, 2?5 ∆≅ Ε96:Χ 6Ι-Α≅∆Ε 9≅>≅86?6:Εϑ :∆ ΑΧ6∆6ΧΓ65.

%≅Ε6 Ε92Ε, 2∆ :? D2?Ε9:?6 2?5 ∀ΦΧ>2?? (2004), :? ≅ΦΧ >≅56= ?≅ ΦΕ:=:Εϑ 2Χ:∆6∆ 7Χ≅> =6:∆ΦΧ6¹, Ε96Χ67≅Χ6 :?5:Γ:5Φ2= 286?Ε∆ :?6=2∆Ε:42==ϑ ∆ΦΑΑ=ϑ ≅?6 Φ?:Ε

≅7 Ε:>6 7≅Χ 6:Ε96Χ Η≅Χ< ≅Χ Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ6=2Ε65 24Ε:Γ:Ε:6∆².

BΦ:=5:?8 ≅? D2?Ε9:?6 2?5 ∀ΦΧ>2?? (2004) 2?5 C2>Α36== (20102), Η6

∆Α64:7ϑ G [et+i(!)] 2∆ 7≅==≅Η∆

G[et+i(!)] =



et+i(!) ~e

Wt+i(!)

P_t+i^e ; )t+i(!)

2

(2)

Η96Χ6 P_t+i^e 2Χ6 ΑΧ:46 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆, )t+i(!) = 1 Lt+i(!) :∆ Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 2?5 ~eh

Wt+i(h)

P_t+i^e ; )_t+i(!)i

:∆ 2? 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ 7Φ?4Ε:≅? Η:Ε9~eW > 0; ~eu > 0;

~

eW W < 0; ~eW u < 0. (2) :>Α=:6∆ Ε92Ε 9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ 7246 2 ΕΧ256 ≅Ρ. A 9:896Χ

=6Γ6= ≅7 6Ρ≅ΧΕ Χ65Φ46∆ Ε96:Χ ΦΕ:=:Εϑ, 3ΦΕ, 2∆ 4Φ∆Ε≅>2Χϑ :? >2?ϑ 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆

>≅56=, :?4Χ62∆:?8 6:Ε96Χ ^W_P^t+ie^(h)

t+i ≅Χ )t+i(!) ≅Ρ6Χ∆ >≅Χ6 >≅Ε:Γ2Ε:≅? Ε≅ 6Ι6ΧΕ :Ε.

,?56Χ Ε96 9ϑΑ≅Ε96∆:∆ ≅7 2? 255:Ε:Γ6=ϑ ∆6Α2Χ23=6 ΦΕ:=:Εϑ 7Φ?4Ε:≅?, 9≅Φ∆6- 9≅=5∆ ∆ΕΧ:<6 2 32=2?46 36ΕΗ66? Ε96∆6 ΕΗ≅ Ε6?56?4:6∆ 3ϑ >2Ι:>:Κ:?8 ΦΕ:=:Εϑ Η9:49 :>Α=:6∆

G⁰[et+i(!)] = 0 (3)

1Lt+i(h) :∆ Ε96 7Χ24Ε:≅? ≅7 6>Α=≅ϑ65 :?5:Γ:5Φ2=∆ Η:Ε9:? 9≅Φ∆69≅=5 h 2?5 ?≅Ε Ε96 Η≅Χ<:?8 Ε:>6 ≅7 2? :?5:Γ:5Φ2= 286?Ε.

2+9:∆ :>Α=:6∆ Ε92Ε, Φ∆:?8 Ε96 ∆ϑ>3≅=≅8ϑ ≅7 C2>Α36== (20102), = 0, Η96Χ6 :∆ Ε96

∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 Γ2=Φ6 ≅7 Ε96 ∆9≅ΧΕ-ΧΦ? 6=2∆Ε:4:Εϑ ≅7 =23≅Χ ∆ΦΑΑ=ϑ. .6 2=∆≅ 2∆∆Φ>6 Α2Χ2>6Ε6Χ∆

Ε≅ 36 49≅∆6? ∆≅ Ε92Ε 6Ι46∆∆ =23≅ΦΧ ∆ΦΑΑ=ϑ 6Ι:∆Ε∆.

2?5, Ε96Χ67≅Χ6,

et+i(!) = ~e

Wt+i(!)

P_t+i^e ; )t+i(!)



(4) +96 8≅Γ6Χ?>6?Ε Χ632Ε6∆ :Ε∆ ∆6:8?:≅Χ286 ΑΧ≅4665∆ Ε≅ 9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ 3ϑ >62?∆

≅7 =Φ>Α-∆Φ> ΕΧ2?∆76Χ∆, Tt(!):

Zn

0

Tt(!) Pt

d!= Zn

0

Mt(!) Pt

d!

Zn

0

Mt 1(!) Pt

d!

Η96Χ6 Mt(!) :∆ >≅?6ϑ 9≅=5:?8∆ ≅7 9≅Φ∆69≅=5 ! 2Ε Ε:>6 (.

∗ΦΑΑ≅∆:?8 Ε92Ε 4≅?∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅? 2?5 Χ62= >≅?6ϑ 32=2?46∆ 6?Ε6Χ (1) :? =≅8∆, ΦΕ:=:Εϑ >2Ι:>:Κ2Ε:≅? Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ Ε96∆6 ΕΗ≅ Ε6Χ>∆ =625∆ Ε≅ 2 Η6==-<?≅Η?

>≅?6ϑ 56>2?5 7Φ?4Ε:≅? (.2=∆9, 2003, Α. 272):

Mt+i(!)

P_t+i = c_t+i(!)

1 + ∀t+i

∀_t+i



b (5)

Η96Χ6 b :∆ Ε96 Η6:89Ε ≅7 =≅8 Χ62= >≅?6ϑ 9≅=5:?8∆ :? Ε96 ΦΕ:=:Εϑ 7Φ?4Ε:≅?. %≅Ε6 Ε92Ε, 5Φ6 Ε≅ ∆ϑ>>6ΕΧϑ, Ε96 ! :?56Ι 42? 36 5Χ≅ΑΑ65.

2.2 T!e 1&a∃ a&d +!e ∀&+e)%ed∀a+e ()∋d,c+ %a)#e+∗

A∆ ≅7Ε6? :? Ε96 %6Η-∀6ϑ?6∆:2? =:Ε6Χ2ΕΦΧ6 (∆66 7≅Χ :?∆Ε2?46 E586, 2002) Η6 2∆∆Φ>6 Ε96 6Ι:∆Ε6?46 ≅7 2 4≅?Ε:?ΦΦ> ≅7 >≅?≅Α≅=:∆Ε:42==ϑ 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:Γ6 ΛΧ>∆

9:Χ:?8 Ε96 9≅>≅86?6≅Φ∆ =23≅ΦΧ :?ΑΦΕ Ε≅ ΑΧ≅5Φ46 2 9≅Χ:Κ≅?Ε2==ϑ 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε:2Ε65

≅ΦΕΑΦΕ. .6 2=∆≅ 2∆∆Φ>6 Ε92Ε Ε96Χ6 6Ι:∆Ε Α6Χ764Ε=ϑ 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:Γ6 :?Ε6Χ>65:- 2Χ:6∆ 4≅>3:?:?8 Ε96 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε:2Ε65 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ ≅7 ΛΧ>∆ Ε≅ ΑΧ≅5Φ46 2 9≅>≅86?6≅Φ∆

288Χ682Ε6 Λ?2= ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 7≅Χ Ε96 Η≅Χ=5 64≅?≅>ϑ Ε92?<∆ Ε≅ 2 Ε649?≅=≅8ϑ Η:Ε9 4≅?∆Ε2?Ε 6=2∆Ε:4:Εϑ ≅7 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ:≅? (CE∗).

∗:>:=2Χ=ϑ Ε≅ )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002), ∆≅=Γ:?8 Ε96 ΑΧ≅ΛΕ >2Ι:>:Κ2Ε:≅? ΑΧ≅3-

=6> ≅7 Ε96 Χ6ΑΧ6∆6?Ε2Ε:Γ6 :?Ε6Χ>65:2Χϑ =625∆ Ε≅ Ε96 ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε 56>2?5 7Φ?4Ε:≅?

7≅Χ Ε96 ;-Ε9 5≅>6∆Ε:4 ΛΧ>

∗_t^H(#) = Y_t^W

&^H_t (#) Pt



(6)

Η96Χ6 ∗_t^H(#) 2?5 &^H_t (#) 2Χ6 Χ6∆Α64Ε:Γ6=ϑ Ε96 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 2?5 Ε96 ΑΧ:46 ≅7 Ε96 ;- Ε9 5≅>6∆Ε:4 ΛΧ>, Y_t^W :∆ Η≅Χ=5 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ, Pt :∆ Ε96 288Χ682Ε6 5≅>6∆Ε:4 ΑΧ:46 :?56Ι 2?5 :∆ Ε96 6=2∆Ε:4:Εϑ ≅7 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ:≅? ≅7 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε Γ2Χ:6Ε:6∆ :?

Ε96 CE∗ ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε:≅? 7Φ?4Ε:≅?. +96 56>2?5 7Φ?4Ε:≅? ≅7 Ε96 ;-Ε9 7≅Χ6:8? ΛΧ>

>:ΧΧ≅Χ∆ (6) : A=∆≅ ?≅Ε6 Ε92Ε Ε96 ?Φ>36Χ ≅7 5≅>6∆Ε:4 ΛΧ>∆ :∆ ?≅Χ>2=:Κ65 Ε≅

% 2?5 Ε92Ε ≅7 7≅Χ6:8? ΛΧ>∆ Ε≅ 1 %. .6 4≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 ∆>2== ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ 42∆6, ?2>6=ϑ % ! 0 (&3∆Ε76=5 2?5 )≅8≅Ρ, 1996, Α. 688). F:?2==ϑ Pt = nRn

0 &^H_t (#)¹ d#+R1 n

t&^F_t (#)1

d#

o ¹

1 Η96Χ6 &^F_t (#) :∆ Ε96 ΑΧ:46 ≅7 Ε96 ;- Ε9 7≅Χ6:8? ΛΧ>. .6 96Χ627Ε6Χ 5Χ≅Α Ε96 # :?56Ι 5Φ6 Ε≅ ∆ϑ>>6ΕΧϑ:

∗:>:=2Χ=ϑ Ε≅ C2>Α36== (20102), ∆ΦΑΑ≅∆:?8 Ε92Ε >≅?≅Α≅=:∆Ε:42==ϑ 4≅>Α6Ε- :Ε:Γ6 ΛΧ>∆ 92Γ6 Ε96 7≅==≅Η:?8 ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε:≅? 7Φ?4Ε:≅?

∗^H_t = A_tL_t



~ e

Wt

P_t^e; )t



(7) - Η:Ε9 AtΧ6ΑΧ6∆6?Ε:?8 2 Ε649?≅=≅8ϑ ∆9≅4< 2?5  36:?8 2 Α2Χ2>6Ε6Χ-; Ε96:Χ ΑΧ≅ΛΕ >2Ι:>:Κ2Ε:≅? ΑΧ≅3=6> 42? 36 6ΙΑΧ6∆∆65 2∆

fLmaxt;Wtg Y_t^W
1 ( A_tL_t



~ e

Wt

P_t^e; )t

) ^1

Pt WtLt

+96 ΛΧ∆Ε ≅Χ56Χ 4≅?5:Ε:≅? Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ Lt Χ6ΕΦΧ?∆ =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5

Lt = W

( 1)

t

( 1)

 _{( 1)}

Y_t^W
_{( 1)} ¹ A

( 1)

( 1)

t
(8)



~ e

Wt

P_t^e; )t

 _{( 1)} ^{( 1)} P

( 1)

t

+2<:?8 Ε96 ΛΧ∆Ε ≅Χ56Χ 4≅?5:Ε:≅? Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ Wt 2?5 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ:?8 :Ε :?Ε≅ (8) ≅?6 ≅3Ε2:?∆ Ε96 7≅==≅Η:?8 4≅?5:Ε:≅?

Wt



~ e

Wt

P_t^e; )t

 1

~ eW

Wt

P_t^e; )t

 1

P_t^e = 1 (9)

A7Ε6Χ C2>Α36== (20102), Η6 2Χ6 Χ625ϑ, 2Ε Ε9:∆ ∆Ε286, Ε≅ =:?62Χ:Κ6 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅?∆

(5), (8) (9), )t = 1 Lt 2?5 Ε96 ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε:≅? 7Φ?4Ε:≅? ≅7 >≅?≅Α≅=:∆Ε:42==ϑ 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:Γ6 ΛΧ>∆ 2Χ≅Φ?5 Ε96 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 ∆≅ Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:? Ε96 7≅==≅Η:?8 ∆ϑ∆Ε6>

≅7 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅?∆

[( 1) ] ^Lt = ^Wt Y^_t^W ( 1) ^At (10)

( 1)~e ¹

"

~ eWWss

P_ss^e W^t

~ eWWss

P_ss^e P^_t^e+ ~eud)t

# ^Pt

d)t = ∋LL^t (11)

W^t = P^_t^e+eu eW u

eW W² d)t (12)

P^t = M^t c^t+ ^+t (13)

^

∗^H_t =  ^At+  ^Lt+  ^Wt  ^P_t^e e ¹eu∋LL^t (14) Η96Χ6 Γ2Χ:23=6∆ Η:Ε9 92Ε∆ 56?≅Ε6 Α6Χ46?Ε286 56Γ:2Ε:≅?∆ 7Χ≅> ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 Γ2=Φ6∆, ∋L :∆ Ε96 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6, d)t :∆ Ε96 23∆≅=ΦΕ6 492?86 ≅7 Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6, Ε96 ∋∋ ∆Φ3∆4Χ:ΑΕ 56?≅Ε6∆ ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 Γ2=Φ6∆ 2?5  :∆ Ε96 6=2∆Ε:4:Εϑ ≅7 >≅?6ϑ 56>2?5 Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ Ε96 ?≅>:?2= :?Ε6Χ6∆Ε Χ2Ε6.

FΦΧΕ96Χ>≅Χ6, :? ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 ≅?6 92∆ ~e~e_W¹ = ^W_P^sse

ss = ³. %≅Ε6 Ε92Ε (11) :∆

≅ΦΧ 4≅Φ?Ε6ΧΑ2ΧΕ ≅7 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅? (17) :? C2>Α36== (20102). +96ϑ 2Χ6 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε 2∆

Η6 2∆∆Φ>6 Ε96 ∆9≅ΧΕ ΧΦ? 6=2∆Ε:4:Εϑ ≅7 =23≅ΦΧ ∆ΦΑΑ=ϑ Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ ^W_Pe^t t Ε≅ 36 Κ6Χ≅. C≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 42∆6 ≅7 2 4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ, Η96Χ6 ^ct = ^∗_t^H = ^Y_t^W 2?5 42==

M^t= ^Mt+ ^+t. &?46 :>Α≅∆:?8 Ε96 ∆9≅ΧΕ-ΧΦ? 6=2∆Ε:4:Εϑ ≅7 =23≅Χ ∆ΦΑΑ=ϑ Ε≅ 36

3.6 2∆∆Φ>6 ^W_Pe^s

s =  2∆ :? C2>Α36== (2011). +9:∆ :>Α=:6∆ 2 5:Ρ6Χ6?46 36ΕΗ66? 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅?

(12) 2?5 :Ε∆ 4≅Φ?Ε6ΧΑ2ΧΕ :? C2>Α36== (20102). +96 2ΦΕ9≅Χ Ε92?<∆ C2Χ= ∃. C2>Α36== 7≅Χ Α≅:?Ε:?8 Ε9:∆ ≅ΦΕ.

Κ6Χ≅ 2?5  = 1, Ε96 ∆ϑ∆Ε6> (10)-(14) :∆ >2Ε96>2Ε:42==ϑ Ε96 ∆2>6 2∆ Ε96 ≅?6 Φ∆65 3ϑ C2>Α36== (20102, 3). Bϑ Ε2<:?8 ∆:>:=2Χ ∆Ε6Α∆ Ε≅ Ε9≅∆6 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε65 :?

C2>Α36== (20103), ≅?6 42? 56Χ:Γ6 Ε96 7≅==≅Η:?8 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅?

P^t = ^P_t^e  ^At

(1 )

~

eW W² ∋L(~eu e~W u)

+ ~e ¹~eu∋L~eW W²

∋L~eW W² d)t

(15) .6 2∆∆Φ>6 Η:Ε9 C2>Α36== (20102, 3) Ε92Ε P_t^e :∆ 2 >:ΙΕΦΧ6 ≅7 Χ2Ε:≅?2= 2?5 252ΑΕ:Γ6 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆, ?2>6=ϑ Ε92Ε ^P_t^e = ! ^Pt+(1 !)

"

P^t 1+ XT

i=1

i

P^t i P^t i 1

#

Η96Χ6 0 !  1 :∆ Ε96 568Χ66 Ε≅ Η9:49 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆ 2Χ6 Χ2Ε:≅?2= 2?5 i:∆ Ε96 Η6:89Ε ≅7 :-Ε9 =28 :? Ε96 :?Μ2Ε:≅? Χ2Ε6 :? 7≅Χ>:?8 252ΑΕ:Γ6 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆, Η:Ε9 XT

i=1

i = 1. &? Ε96∆6 8Χ≅Φ?5∆, ≅?6 42? 56Χ:Γ6 7Χ≅> (15) 2 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆

4ΦΧΓ6, Η9≅∆6 ∆=≅Α6 :∆ 2 >Φ=Ε:Α=6 ≅7 Ε96 4≅6Θ 4:6?Ε ≅7 23∆≅=ΦΕ6 56Γ:2Ε:≅?∆ ≅7 Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 7Χ≅> ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 :? (15) :

P^t P^t 1 = (1 )

~

eW W² ∋L(~eu e~W u)

+ ~e ¹~eu∋L~eW W² (1 !) ∋Le~W W² d)t+ +

XT i=1

i

(1 !)

P^t i P^t i 1

 

(1 !)A^t

.6 ?≅Η >≅Γ6 Ε≅ ≅Α6? ΛΧ∆Ε Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε ≅7 Ε96 64≅?≅>ϑ 2?5 Ε96?

Ε96 42Α:Ε2= ≅?6.

3 O(e&∀& +!e +)ade acc∋,&+

&?46 ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε ≅?=ϑ, ^ct= (1 %) ^&^H_t ^t &^^F_t

+ ^∗_t^H, 5Φ6 Ε≅ Ε96 288Χ682Ε6 Χ6∆≅ΦΧ46 4≅?∆ΕΧ2:?Ε 2?5 Ε≅ ^Pt= % ^&^H_t

+ (1 %) ^t+ ^&^F_t
. FΦΧΕ96Χ>≅Χ6, 2∆ :? )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002), ^Y_t^W = %^∗_t^H + (1 %)^∗_t^F. &?

Ε96∆6 8Χ≅Φ?5∆, Ε96 AΑΑ6?5:Ι ∆9≅Η∆ Ε92Ε ≅?6 42? 7≅==≅Η 2 ∆:>:=2Χ, 3ΦΕ =6∆∆

4≅>Α=:42Ε6, ΑΧ≅465ΦΧ6 Ε≅ C2>Α36== (20103) Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:? Ε96 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅? 36=≅Η P^t = P^_t^e

1 %



^

∗_t^F ∗^^H_t

 ^At (16)

(1 )

~

eW W² ∋L(~eu ~eW u)

+ ~e ¹e~u∋Le~W W²

∋Le~W W² d)t

%≅Ε6 Ε92Ε 

1 n

 ∗^^F_t ∗^_t^H

42? 36 Χ6ΗΧ:ΕΕ6? 2∆ (1 %) ^&^F_t + ^t

(1 %) ^&^H_t

3ϑ Ε2<:?8 Ε96 5:Ρ6Χ6?46 36ΕΗ66? Ε96 =:?62Χ:Κ65 Γ6Χ∆:≅? ≅7 (6) 2?5 :Ε∆ 4≅Φ?Ε6ΧΑ2ΧΕ 7≅Χ ^∗^F_t . ∗≅ Ε9:∆ Ε6Χ> 244≅Φ?Ε∆ 7≅Χ 492?86∆ :? Ε96 Ε6Χ>∆

≅7 ΕΧ256. +9≅Φ89 Η6 4≅?∆:56Χ 2 ∆>2== ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ, Ε6Χ>∆ ≅7 ΕΧ256 2Χ6 ?≅Ε 6Ι≅86?≅Φ∆ :? ≅ΦΧ ∆6ΕΕ:?8. F:Χ>∆ :? Ε96 5≅>6∆Ε:4 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ 2Χ6 2 ∆>2== ΑΧ≅Α≅Χ- Ε:≅? ≅7 Ε96 Η≅Χ=5Η:56 ?Φ>36Χ ≅7 ΛΧ>∆, 9≅Η6Γ6Χ Ε96ϑ Χ6Ε2:? >≅?≅Α≅=ϑ Α≅Η6Χ

≅? Ε96:Χ ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε∆. ∗≅, Η:Ε9 5:Ρ6Χ6?46 Ε≅ )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002), Η96Χ6 :?

Ε96:Χ ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 Ε96Χ6 2ΑΑ62Χ∆ 2 Ε6Χ> 244≅Φ?Ε:?8 7≅Χ Ε96 Χ6=2Ε:Γ6 ΑΧ:46 ≅7 5≅>6∆Ε:4 2?5 7≅Χ6:8? 8≅≅5∆, :Ε :∆ Φ∆67Φ= Ε≅ >2<6 6ΙΑ=:4:Ε Ε96 4≅??64Ε:≅? 36- ΕΗ66? Ε6Χ>∆ ≅7 ΕΧ256 2?5 Ε96 5≅>6∆Ε:4 23∆≅=ΦΕ6 492?86 :? Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6. ? ≅Χ56Χ Ε≅ 5≅ ∆≅, ≅?6 42?, 7ΦΧΕ96Χ, ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅?∆ (11) 2?5 (12) :?Ε≅ (14) Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:?

^

∗^H_t =  ^At+ 

eu eW u eW W²

(1 e ¹eu∋L)

∋L



d)t (17)

Η9:49 :? :Ε∆ ΕΦΧ? 42? 36 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ65 :?Ε≅ (16) Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:? 2 ?6Η Γ6Χ∆:≅? ≅7 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅? (15)

P^t = P^_t^e

1 %



^

∗^F_t + 

1 %

1



A^t (18)

h1 

1 ^{1 n} 

i 

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u) + h

1 

1 n

i

e ¹eu∋LeW W²

∋LeW W² d)t

%≅Ε6 Ε92Ε 7≅Χ % = 1, (16) 2?5 (18) 4≅:?4:56 Η:Ε9 (15). +96 5:Ρ6Χ6?46 36ΕΗ66? (18) 2?5 (15) :∆ 3≅Ε9 :? Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε >Φ=Ε:Α=:6Χ 2?5 :? Ε96

ΑΧ6∆6?46 ≅7 2? 255:Ε:≅?2= ∆9:7Ε6Χ, ?2>6=ϑ Ε96 Γ2Χ:2Ε:≅? :? 7≅Χ6:8? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ.

(18) :>Α=:6∆ Ε92Ε Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 492?86∆ Ε≅

P^t P^t 1 = XT

i=1

i

P^t i P^t i 1

 1 %

(1 !)∗^_t^F +  (1 !)

1 %

1

 A^t

h (19)

1 

1 ^{1 n} 

i 

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u) + h

1 

1 n

i

e ¹eu∋LeW W²

(1 !) ∋LeW W² d)t

A? :?4Χ62∆6 :? 7≅Χ6:8? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ >≅Γ6∆ Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 5≅Η?Η2Χ5 3642Φ∆6 :Ε ΑΧ≅5Φ46∆ 2? :?4Χ62∆6 :? =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5 Γ:2 (10) 2?5 Ε96Χ67≅Χ6 2 564=:?6 :?

Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Ε9Χ≅Φ89 (11).

+≅ Φ?56Χ∆Ε2?5 Ε96 492?86 :? Ε96 ∆=≅Α6 ≅7 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 4≅?∆:56Χ, 7≅Χ :==Φ∆ΕΧ2Ε:Γ6 ΑΦΧΑ≅∆6∆ ≅?=ϑ, 2? :?4Χ62∆6 :? Ε96 ΑΧ:46 =6Γ6= :? 2 4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ.

+9:∆ 86?6Χ2Ε6∆ 2 72== :? Ε96 Χ62= Η286 2?5 2? :?4Χ62∆6 :? Ε96 6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε 2?5 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6∆ Γ:2 (10) 2?5 (11) Χ6∆Α64Ε:Γ6=ϑ. A7Ε6Χ C2>Α36== (2006, 2010) ~eW >0; ~eu >0; ~eW W <0, ~eW u <0 2?5 ∆≅ ^{~eW W2}_s ^{sL(~eu ~eW u)}

L~e_{W W 2} ~e ¹e~u T 0. +9:∆ :>Α=:6∆ Ε92Ε Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε >Φ=Ε:Α=:6Χ :? (17) 42? 36 6:Ε96Χ Α≅∆:Ε:Γ6 ≅Χ ?682Ε:Γ6, 2∆ 2 =≅Η6Χ Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε >62?∆ 2 8Χ62Ε6Χ =23≅ΦΧ :?ΑΦΕ 3ΦΕ 2=∆≅ =6∆∆ 6Ρ≅ΧΕ. ∗≅ 2 564Χ62∆6 :? Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε 42? 36 2∆∆≅4:2Ε65 Ε≅

6:Ε96Χ 2? :?4Χ62∆6 ≅Χ 2 564Χ62∆6 :? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ, Η9:49 Ε96? 42? 6:Ε96Χ Χ6:?7≅Χ46 ≅Χ 52>Α6? Ε96 :?:Ε:2= 492?86 :? Ε96 ΑΧ:46 =6Γ6=. ∗≅ Ε≅ ∆Φ>>2Χ:Κ6

Pt "! Wt

Pt

#! Lt"! )t#! ∗tl! Pt l

H≅Η6Γ6Χ, 2∆ ∆9≅Η65 3ϑ C2>Α36== (20102), Ε96 ∆=≅Α6 ≅7 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 :∆, :? Ε96 6?5, a priori ?682Ε:Γ6, 8:Γ6? Ε96 ∆:8? Χ6∆ΕΧ:4Ε:≅?∆ 23≅Γ6. ∗≅ Ε96 6Ρ≅ΧΕ 6Ρ64Ε ≅7 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε ≅? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 2?5, Ε96Χ67≅Χ6, ≅? ΑΧ:46∆, 6Γ6? :7 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε, Η:== ?≅Ε 36 ≅7 ∆Φ49 2 >28?:ΕΦ56 Ε≅ 4≅>Α=6Ε6=ϑ ≅Ρ∆6Ε Ε96 =23≅ΦΧ :?ΑΦΕ 6Ρ64Ε.

,Α≅? ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε, ≅?6 7ΦΧΕ96Χ ΕΧ2?∆>:∆∆:≅? 492??6= 2Α- Α62Χ∆ Ε9Χ≅Φ89 Ε96 Ε6Χ>∆ ≅7 ΕΧ256. A? :?4Χ62∆6 :? ^&^H_t 5≅6∆ ?≅Ε 86?6Χ2Ε6

≅?=ϑ 2 72== :? Ε96 Χ62= Η286, :Ε 2=∆≅ 2Ρ64Ε Ε96 56>2?5 7≅Χ 5≅>6∆Ε:4 ≅ΦΕ- ΑΦΕ 2∆ :>Α=:65 3ϑ (6), 8:Γ6? Ε92Ε Α6Χ764Ε=ϑ 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:Γ6 :?Ε6Χ>65:2Χ:6∆ ≅?

Ε96 Λ?2= ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε >2Χ<6Ε 42? ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 :Ε Η:Ε9 7≅Χ6:8? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ. +9:∆ :∆ 2

?682Ε:Γ6 Ε6Χ>∆ ≅7 ΕΧ256 6Ρ64Ε Σ =2 )≅>6Χ (1993). &?46 282:?, 8:Γ6? Ε92Ε

~

eW W² sL(~eu e~W u)

sL~e_{W W 2} e~ ¹e~u T 0, Ε9:∆ 42? 6:Ε96Χ Χ6:?7≅Χ46 ≅Χ 52>Α6? Ε96 6Ρ64Ε

≅7 Ε96 72== :? Ε96 Χ62= Η286 ≅? Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6. A∆ 2 >2ΕΕ6Χ ≅7 4≅?∆6- ΒΦ6?46, ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε 92∆ 2? a priori 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆ 6Ρ64Ε ≅? Ε96

∆=≅Α6 ≅7 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6. +≅ ∆66 Ε9:∆, :Ε :∆ ?646∆∆2Χϑ Ε≅ Γ6Χ:7ϑ Η96Ε96Χ Ε96 7≅==≅Η:?8 :?6ΒΦ2=:Εϑ 36ΕΗ66? Ε96 ∆=≅Α6∆ ≅7 (18) 2?5 (15) 9≅=5∆

[1 ]

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u)

+  [ ] e ¹eu∋LeW W²

∋LeW W² > (20)

> (1 )

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u)

+ e ¹eu∋LeW W²

∋LeW W² Η96Χ6





1 1 %



<1 (21)

F≅Χ (20) Ε≅ 9≅=5, :Ε ∆9≅Φ=5 36 Ε92Ε

e ¹eu∋LeW W² 

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u)

< e ¹eu∋LeW W² 

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u) (22)

9≅Η6Γ6Χ Ε96 ∆:8? ≅7 e ¹eu∋LeW W² 

eW W² ∋L(eu eW u)

:∆ 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆

2?5 ∆≅ (21) 2?5 (22) 42? a priori 36 :? 4≅?Μ:4Ε.

P)∋(∋∗∀+∀∋& 1 Opening the trade account has an ambiguous e!ect on the sacri ce ratio implied by the price-price Phillips curve.

4 O(e&∀& +!e ca(∀+a∃ acc∋,&+

,Α≅? ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 42Α:Ε2= 244≅Φ?Ε, Η6 7≅==≅Η )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002, Α. 6) 3ϑ 2∆∆Φ>:?8 Ε92Ε Ε96 ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε ≅7 Ε96 5:∆4≅Φ?Ε Χ2Ε6 Ε:>6∆ 1 Α=Φ∆ Ε96 Χ62= :?Ε6Χ6∆Ε Χ2Ε6 :∆ 6ΒΦ2= Ε≅ ≅?6. A∆ 2 Χ6∆Φ=Ε, 4≅?∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅? ∆>≅≅Ε9:?8 42? 36 249:6Γ65 2?5 ^ct = 0. +96Χ67≅Χ6, (13) ΕΦΧ?∆ ≅ΦΕ Ε≅ 36 ^Pt = ^Mt + ∀t. ,?56Χ Ε96∆6 2∆∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅?∆, 3ϑ 7≅==≅Η:?8 2 Γ6Χϑ ∆:>:=2Χ ΑΧ≅465ΦΧ6 Ε≅ Ε92Ε ∆6Ε ≅ΦΕ :? Ε96 AΑΑ6?5:Ι, :Ε :∆ Α≅∆∆:3=6 Ε≅ ∆9≅Η Ε92Ε (16) 5≅6∆ ?≅Ε 492?86.

P)∋(∋∗∀+∀∋& 2 Perfect capital mobility in a small open-to-trade economy does not alter the sacri ce ratio implied by the price-price Phillips curve.

+9:∆ :∆ 3642Φ∆6 Α6Χ764Ε 42Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ 5≅6∆ ?≅Ε 492?86 ?6:Ε96Χ =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5 ?≅Χ Ε96 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ23:=:Εϑ ≅7 5≅>6∆Ε:4 2?5 7≅Χ6:8? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ. ? ≅Χ56Χ Ε≅ ∆66 Ε96 7≅Χ>6Χ Α≅:?Ε 4≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 =:?62Χ:Κ65 =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5 Η:Ε9 ΕΧ256

≅Α6??6∆∆

^Lt= ^∗^F_t ∗^_t^H

(1 %) + h

M^t+ ^+t (1 %) ^&^H_t ^t &^^F_t
i

^Wt

∗Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 :? :Ε ^∗_t^F ∗^_t^H

= &^^F_t + ^t &^^H_t

2?5 ∆:>Α=:7ϑ Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:?

^Lt= h

M^t+ ^+t

i

^Wt

)642== Ε92Ε 5Φ6 Ε≅ Ε96 >≅?6ϑ 56>2?5 7Φ?4Ε:≅? ^Pt+(1 %) ^&^H_t ^t &^^F_t
+ Y^_t^H = ^Mt+ ^+t 2?5 ∆≅

^Lt= h

P^t+ (1 %) ^&^H_t ^t &^^F_t

+ ^Y_t^Hi

^Wt (23) C≅?∆:56Χ ?≅Η Ε96 42∆6 ≅7 Α6Χ764Ε 42Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ. #23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5 :∆

[ ]

L^t+ ^Wt



= ∗^_t^H + (1 %) ^∗_t^H ∗^_t^F
^Pt

,∆:?8 Ε96 6ΒΦ2=:Εϑ ^∗^F_t ∗^_t^H

= &^^F_t + ^t &^^H_t

2?5 ∆:>Α=:7ϑ:?8, ≅?6

≅3Ε2:?∆ 282:? (23).

5 A %∋&e+a)0 ,&∀∋&

.6 ?≅Η 4≅?∆:56Χ Ε96 42∆6 ≅7 ΕΗ≅ Χ68:≅?∆ (>6>36Χ ∆Ε2Ε6∆) Η:Ε9:? 2 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ (>≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?), 92Γ:?8 ΕΗ≅ ∆68>6?Ε65 =23≅ΦΧ >2Χ<6Ε∆ Η:Ε9 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε 67- 7≅ΧΕ 7Φ?4Ε:≅?∆, =625:?8 Ε≅ 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6∆ 2?5 Χ62= Η286∆. .6 7ΦΧΕ96Χ ∆ΦΑΑ≅∆6 Ε92Ε Ε96 >2Χ<6Ε∆ 7≅Χ Ε96 Λ?2= ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε, 3≅?5∆ 2?5 >≅?6ϑ 2Χ6 Α6Χ764Ε=ϑ :?Ε68Χ2Ε65. %≅ >:8Χ2Ε:≅? :∆ Α≅∆∆:3=6. +96 Ε≅Ε2= ?Φ>36Χ ≅7 9≅Φ∆6- 9≅=5∆ :∆ ?≅Χ>2=:Κ65 Ε≅ 1. A 7Χ24Ε:≅? % ≅7 6249 9≅Φ∆69≅=5 :∆ =≅42Ε65 :? Χ68:≅?

A 2?5 Ε96 ≅Ε96Χ 7Χ24Ε:≅? :? Χ68:≅? B: ?ΕΧ2-9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ ΕΧ2?∆76Χ∆, Α=2ϑ:?8 2

∆:>:=2Χ Χ≅=6 Ε≅ :?ΕΧ2-?2Ε:≅?2= Χ6>:ΕΕ2?46∆, >2<6 ∆ΦΧ6 Ε92Ε 4≅?∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅? :∆ Ε96

∆2>6 :? 3≅Ε9 Χ68:≅?∆, ?≅ΕΗ:Ε9∆Ε2?5:?8 Ε96 96Ε6Χ≅86?6:Εϑ 492Χ24Ε6Χ:Κ:?8 Ε96

=23≅ΦΧ >2Χ<6Ε.

∗:>:=2Χ=ϑ Ε≅ 23≅Γ6, ΛΧ>∆ =≅42Ε65 :? Ε96 ΕΗ≅ Χ68:≅?∆ 2Χ6 ∆ϑ>>6ΕΧ:4 Η:Ε9:?

Ε96 Χ68:≅? 2?5 Ε96ϑ 2Χ6 ∆Α64:2=:Κ65 :? 8≅≅5∆ Ε92Ε 2Χ6 :>Α6Χ764Ε=ϑ ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6∆.

+96 Ε≅Ε2= ?Φ>36Χ ≅7 ΛΧ>∆ :∆ ?≅Χ>2=:Κ65 Ε≅ 1, Η:Ε9 % ΛΧ>∆ 36:?8 =≅42Ε65 :?

Χ68:≅? A 2?5 1 % :? Χ68:≅? B. +96:Χ ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ :∆ Ε96? 2∆∆6>3=65 3ϑ Α6Χ764Ε=ϑ 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:Γ6 :?Ε6Χ>65:2Χ:6∆, ΑΧ≅5Φ4:?8 2 Λ?2= 9≅>≅86?6≅Φ∆ ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε.

,?56Χ Ε96∆6 2∆∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅?∆, =:?62Χ:Κ65 =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5∆ 7≅Χ Ε96 7Χ24Ε:≅?∆ ≅7 9≅Φ∆69≅=5∆ =≅42Ε65 :? Ε96 ΕΗ≅ Χ68:≅?∆ Η:== 36

L^^A_t = ( 1)∗_t^A+ ∋^A∗^_t^A+ ∋^B∗^_t^B

+ ^Pt W^_t^A L^^B_t = ( 1)∗_t^B+ ∋^A∗^^A_t + ∋^B∗^^B_t

+ ^Pt W^_t^B Η96Χ6 ∋^A= ⁿ(^YssA)

n(Y_ss^A) +(1 n)(Y_ss^B) ; ∋^B = ^{(1 n)}(^YssB)

n(Y_ss^A) +(1 n)(Y_ss^B) ;Η96Χ6 Ε96 ∋∋ ∆Φ3∆4Χ:ΑΕ 56?≅Ε6∆ ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 Γ2=Φ6∆. .6 288Χ682Ε6 Ε96 ΕΗ≅ =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5 23≅Γ6 3ϑ Φ∆:?8 2∆ Η6:89Ε∆ ∃^A = _nLA ^nLAss

ss+(1 n)L^B_ss; ∃^B = _nLA^{(1 n)LBss}

ss+(1 n)L^B_ss 2?5 Η6 7≅==≅Η 2

∆:>:=2Χ ΑΧ≅465ΦΧ6 Ε≅ Ε92Ε ∆6Ε ≅ΦΕ :? Ε96 AΑΑ6?5:Ι. ? Ε9:∆ Η2ϑ Η6 ≅3Ε2:? Ε96 7≅==≅Η:?8 288Χ682Ε6 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6

P^t P^t 1 = XT

i=1

i

P^t i P^t i 1

 

∃^A( 1) + ∋^A (1 !)



 ^A^A_t +

+

(1 %) ∃^B( 1) + ∋^B (1 !)



 ^A^B_t +

+ 1

(1 !)



∃^A



^A e^A1e^A_u [( 1)] ^A

 ∋^A^A



d)^A_t +

+ 1

(1 !)



∃^B



^B e^B1e^B_u [( 1)] ^B

 ∋^B^B

 d)^B_t

Η:Ε9 ^j = ^e

j u e^j_{W u}^j e^j_{W W}(^j)²

1 (^ej)^1ejusjL

s^j_L , Η:Ε9 # = A; B. &? Ε96∆6 8Χ≅Φ?5∆, 3ϑ 4≅?-

∆:56Χ:?8 Ε96 ΛΧ∆Ε ≅Χ56Χ 56Χ:Γ2Ε:Γ6 ≅7 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε >Φ=Ε:Α=:6Χ∆ Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅

∃^j 2?5 ∋^j Η:Ε9 # = A; B; :Ε :∆ 62∆ϑ Ε≅ ∆9≅Η Ε92Ε Ε96 Η6:89Ε∆ ≅7 Ε96 23∆≅=ΦΕ6 56- Γ:2Ε:≅?∆ ≅7 Χ68:≅?2= Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6∆ 7Χ≅> Ε96:Χ ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 =6Γ6=∆ >:89Ε 6:Ε96Χ 564Χ62∆6 ≅Χ :?4Χ62∆6 Η:Ε9 Ε96 ∆:Κ6 ≅7 Ε96 Χ68:≅?∆ Ε96>∆6=Γ6∆, >62∆ΦΧ65 3ϑ 6:Ε96Χ Ε96:Χ ∆92Χ6 :? Ε96 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 288Χ682Ε6 6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 ≅Χ 3ϑ Ε96

∆92Χ6 ≅7 Ε96:Χ ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ :? Ε96 CE∗ 288Χ682Ε≅Χ =625:?8 Ε≅ Ε96 Λ?2= 8≅≅5.

P)∋(∋∗∀+∀∋& 3 In a monetary union/country with perfectly integrated as- set and product markets, segmented national/regional labour markets and international/inter-regional private transfers, the link between the size of a region and its weight in the price-price Phillips curve has an a priori am- biguous sign.

6 N,%e)∀ca∃ e/a%(∃e∗

? Ε96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε ∆64Ε:≅?, Η6 8:Γ6 ∆≅>6 ?Φ>6Χ:42= 6Ι2>Α=6∆, 25≅ΑΕ:?8 Ε96 7≅ΦΧ 42=:3Χ2Ε:≅?∆ 7≅Χ Ε96 6Ρ≅ΧΕ 7Φ?4Ε:≅? ΑΧ≅Α≅∆65 3ϑ C2>Α36== (2006). Η2∆, :?∆Ε625, ∆6Ε 6ΒΦ2= Ε≅ 10 7≅==≅Η:?8 7≅Χ :?∆Ε2?46 C92Χ:, ∀69≅6 2?5 ∃4GΧ2ΕΕ2?

(2000), :>Α=ϑ:?8 2? 11% >2Χ<ΦΑ :? ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6. F:?2==ϑ, Ε96 Γ2=Φ6 ≅7 ! Η2∆

Ε2<6? 7Χ≅> C2>Α36== (2008).

+23=6 1 ∆6Ε∆ ≅ΦΕ Ε96 Γ2=Φ6∆ Η6 2ΕΕ24965 Ε≅ Ε96 Α2Χ2>6Ε6Χ∆ 2?5 ≅ΦΧ Χ6-

∆Φ=Ε∆. ? 2== ≅ΦΧ ∆:>Φ=2Ε:≅?∆, 64≅?≅>:4 ≅Α6??6∆∆ :?4Χ62∆6∆ Ε96 Χ624Ε:Γ6?6∆∆ ≅7 :?Μ2Ε:≅? Ε≅ Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε, Χ65Φ4:?8 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅. +9:∆ :∆ ∆≅ 7≅Χ ΕΗ≅ Χ62-

∆≅?∆, Η9:49 42? 36 6ΙΑ=2:?65 Χ6∆≅ΧΕ:?8 282:? Ε≅ Ε96 6Ι2>Α=6 ≅7 2? 6Ι≅86?≅Φ∆

:?4Χ62∆6 :? Ε96 ΑΧ:46 =6Γ6=, 6Γ6? Ε9≅Φ89 7≅Χ :==Φ∆ΕΧ2Ε:Γ6 ΑΦΧΑ≅∆6∆ ≅?=ϑ.

F:Χ∆Ε, 2== Ε96 23≅Γ6 42=:3Χ2Ε:≅?∆ :>Α=ϑ 2 ?682Ε:Γ6 =:?< 36ΕΗ66? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 2?5 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε, 2∆ Ε96 =23≅ΦΧ :?ΑΦΕ 6Ρ64Ε ΑΧ6Γ2:=∆ ≅Γ6Χ Ε96 6Ρ≅ΧΕ ≅?6. ∗≅

≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 492?86∆ Η≅Φ=5 Ε6?5 Ε≅ ≅Ρ∆6Ε ΑΧ:46 492?86∆. H≅Η6Γ6Χ, ΕΧ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆

Η62<6?∆ ∆Φ49 4≅Φ?Ε6ΧΓ2:=:?8 6Ρ64Ε, 2∆ Ε96 ∆>2==6Χ :∆ % Ε96 ∆>2==6Χ 2Χ6 Ε96 7Χ24Ε:≅?∆ ≅7 ^&^H_t 2?5 ∗^H_t :? Ε96 ΑΧ:46 :?56Ι 2?5 :? 288Χ682Ε6 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ Χ6∆Α64Ε:Γ6=ϑ.

+23=6 1 2=∆≅ ∆9≅Η∆ Ε92Ε 42=:3Χ2Ε:≅? Χ6>2:? 2 >2;≅Χ :∆∆Φ6 7≅Χ Ε96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε

>≅56=. ,?56Χ Ε96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε 2ΑΑΧ≅249, Ε96 6Ρ≅ΧΕ 7Φ?4Ε:≅? :∆ Ε96≅Χ6Ε:42==ϑ Μ6Ι- :3=6, 3ΦΕ 9:89=ϑ Α2Χ2>6ΕΧ:Κ65. #:ΕΕ=6 492?86∆ :? Ε96 Α2Χ2>6Ε6Χ 4≅?∆Ε6==2Ε:≅?

42? ΑΧ≅5Φ46 ∆:Κ623=6 492?86∆ :? Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, >≅Χ6 ∆:Κ623=6 Ε92? 64≅-

?≅>:4 ≅Α6??6∆∆ :Ε∆6=7. +9:∆ 9:89=:89Ε∆ Ε96 ?665 7≅Χ Ε96 =:Ε6Χ2ΕΦΧ6 ≅7 Χ676Χ6?46 Ε≅ Λ?5 ?6Η ∆ΕΧ2Ε68:6∆ Ε≅ 42=:3Χ2Ε6 Ε96 6Ρ≅ΧΕ 7Φ?4Ε:≅?.

)682Χ5:?8 Ε96 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅? >≅56= ∆<6Ε4965 23≅Γ6, =6Ε Φ∆ ∆Ε:4< Η:Ε9 Ε96 2∆∆Φ>ΑΕ:≅? ≅7 2 ?682Ε:Γ6 =:?< 36ΕΗ66? Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε 2?5 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ, ∆Φ49 Ε92Ε

^j <0 Η:Ε9 # = A; B: ,?56Χ Ε9:∆ 9ϑΑ≅Ε96∆:∆, Ε96 56Χ:Γ2Ε:Γ6∆ ≅7 Ε96 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ-

>6?Ε >Φ=Ε:Α=:6Χ Η:Ε9 Χ6∆Α64Ε Ε≅ ∃^j 2?5 ∋^j 2Χ6 nh

1 ^{( 1)} i

^j (e^j) ¹e^j_u o 2?5 ^{ j} Χ6∆Α64Ε:Γ6=ϑ. +9:∆ 6?Ε2:=∆ Ε92Ε Ε96 Η6:89Ε ≅7 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅ :? Ε96

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 564Χ62∆6∆ Ε96 9:896Χ :∆ :Ε∆ Η6:89Ε :? Ε96 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 6>Α=≅ϑ-

>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 2?5 Ε96 ∆>2==6Χ :∆ :Ε∆ Η6:89Ε :? Ε6Χ>∆ ≅7 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ. ? ≅Ε96Χ Η≅Χ5∆, Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε 5ϑ?2>:4∆ Η:Ε9:? 2 Χ68:≅? Η:== 6Ι6ΧΕ 2 =2Χ86Χ 6Ρ64Ε ≅? 288Χ6- 82Ε6 :?Μ2Ε:≅? 5ϑ?2>:4∆ Ε96 9:896Χ :∆ :Ε∆ Χ6=2Ε:Γ6 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 2?5 Ε96 >≅Χ6 :Ε 244≅Φ?Ε∆ 7≅Χ 288Χ682Ε6 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ.

+23=6 1 - %Φ>6Χ:42= 6Ι2>Α=6∆ ≅7 Ε96 6Ρ64Ε ≅7 ≅Α6??6∆∆ ≅? Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅

C2=:3Χ2Ε:≅? 1 C2=:3Χ2Ε:≅? 2 C2=:3Χ2Ε:≅? 3 C2=:3Χ2Ε:≅? 4

e 0.8 0.7 0.85 0.8

euu

e 0.0638 0.055 0.0672 0.0516

eW W -0.227 -0.0116 -0.0342 -0.00568

eW u -0.395 -0.174 -0.626 -0.160

! 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67

% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

10 10 10 10

) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

∗24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅

4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ -0.77 -0.47 -1.03 -0.26

≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ -0.64 -0.40 -0.86 -0.22

% ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 492?86

27Ε6Χ 1 Α≅:?Ε -1.30 -2.11 -0.96 -3.85

:?4Χ62∆6 :? )

7 C∋&c∃,∗∀∋&∗

+96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε Α2Α6Χ 6ΙΕ6?5∆ Ε96 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆ ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 ΑΧ≅Α≅∆65 3ϑ C2>Α36== (20102) 7Χ≅> 2 4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ ∆6ΕΕ:?8 Ε≅ 3≅Ε9 2 ∆>2== ≅Α6? 64≅?-

≅>ϑ 2?5 2 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅? ≅?6∆, 3Φ:=5:?8 ≅? &3∆Ε76=5 2?5 )≅8≅Ρ (1996), )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002) 2?5 D2?Ε9:?6 2?5 ∀ΦΧ>2?? (2004).

? )2Κ:? 2?5 /Φ6? (2002) ≅Α6??6∆∆ Ε≅ ΕΧ256 2?5 42Α:Ε2= Μ≅Η∆ 2Ρ64Ε Ε96

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 3ϑ 492?8:?8 Ε96 ∆ΕΧΦ4ΕΦΧ6 ≅7 Ε96 ΑΧ≅5Φ4Ε >2Χ<6Ε :? ΑΧ6∆6?46

≅7 ΑΧ:46 ∆Ε:4<:?6∆∆. .6 92Γ6 ∆9≅Η65 96Χ6 Ε92Ε ∆Φ49 492?86∆ 42? 2Ρ64Ε Ε96

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 2=∆≅ Η96? :Ε ≅Χ:8:?2Ε6∆ 7Χ≅> Ε96 =23≅ΦΧ >2Χ<6Ε 5Φ6 Ε≅ Ε96

6Ι:∆Ε6?46 ≅7 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆ 2?5 Α2ΧΕ:2==ϑ 252ΑΕ:Γ6 6ΙΑ64Ε2Ε:≅?∆ Ε9≅Φ89 :?

23∆6?46 ≅7 ΑΧ:46 ∆Ε:4<:?6∆∆.

? Α2ΧΕ:4Φ=2Χ, Η6 ∆9≅Η65 Ε92Ε ≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 244≅Φ?Ε ≅7 Ε96 64≅?≅>ϑ 6ΙΑ≅∆6∆ Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 Ε≅ 492?86∆ :? 7≅Χ6:8? ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ, Η9:=6 2=∆≅ 2Ρ64Ε:?8 :Ε∆ ∆=≅Α6 :? 2? a priori 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆ Η2ϑ. &Α6?:?8 Ε96 42Α:Ε2= 244≅Φ?Ε 27Ε6Χ

≅Α6?:?8 Ε96 ΕΧ256 ≅?6 92∆ ?≅ 7ΦΧΕ96Χ 6Ρ64Ε ≅? Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅. &?46 6ΙΑ=≅Χ:?8 2 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅? ≅Χ ≅Ε96ΧΗ:∆6 2 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ Η:Ε9 ΕΗ≅ Χ68:≅?∆, Ε96 =:?<

36ΕΗ66? Ε96 ∆:Κ6 ≅7 2 Χ68:≅? 2?5 :Ε∆ Η6:89Ε :? Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 :∆ a priori 2>3:8Φ≅Φ∆.

,Α≅? 42=:3Χ2Ε:?8 ≅ΦΧ >≅56= ≅? Ε96 7≅≅Ε∆Ε6Α∆ ≅7 C2>Α36== (2006), Η6 7≅Φ?5 Ε92Ε :? ≅ΦΧ ∆6ΕΕ:?8 64≅?≅>:4 ≅Α6??6∆∆ 564Χ62∆6∆ Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅. F:?2==ϑ,

∆ΦΑΑ≅∆:?8 Ε92Ε ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ 2?5 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε 92Γ6 2 ?682Ε:Γ6 =:?<, Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ-

>6?Ε 5ϑ?2>:4∆ Η:Ε9:? 2 Χ68:≅? ≅7 2 4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ Η:== 92Γ6 2 8Χ62Ε6Χ 6Ρ64Ε ≅?

288Χ682Ε6 :?Μ2Ε:≅? Ε96 9:896Χ :∆ :Ε∆ Χ6=2Ε:Γ6 ∆Ε625ϑ ∆Ε2Ε6 Φ?6>Α=≅ϑ>6?Ε Χ2Ε6 2?5 Ε96 9:896Χ :∆ :Ε∆ Η6:89Ε :? Ε≅Ε2= ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ.

.6 2=∆≅ 7≅Φ?5 Ε92Ε ?Φ>6Χ:42= Χ6∆Φ=Ε∆ 42? 36 Γ6Χϑ ∆6?∆:Ε:Γ6 Ε≅ Ε96 Φ?56Χ-

=ϑ:?8 42=:3Χ2Ε:≅? ≅7 Ε96 6Ρ≅ΧΕ 7Φ?4Ε:≅?. E:Ε96Χ 2 ΛΧ>6Χ <?≅Η=6586 ≅7 :Ε∆ ≅Χ 2=Ε6Χ?2Ε:Γ6 42=:3Χ2Ε:≅? ∆ΕΧ2Ε68:6∆ 2Χ6, Ε96Χ67≅Χ6, ΑΧ64≅?5:Ε:≅?∆ Ε≅ ∆ΕΦ5ϑ, 7≅Χ :?∆Ε2?46, Ε96 56Ε6Χ>:?24ϑ ΑΧ≅Α6ΧΕ:6∆ ≅7 Ε96 >≅56= Φ?56Χ 5:Ρ6Χ6?Ε >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Α≅=:4ϑ ΧΦ=6∆ ≅Χ Ε≅ ΑΧ≅Γ:56 ∆:>Φ=2Ε:≅?∆ 27Ε6Χ 9:ΕΕ:?8 Ε96 >≅56= Η:Ε9 Γ2Χ:≅Φ∆

<:?5∆ ≅7 ∆9≅4<∆.

Refe)e&ce∗

011 B25:?86Χ, H2Χ2=5, 2009. "G=≅32=:Κ2Ε:≅?, Ε96 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ-:?Μ2Ε:≅? ΕΧ256≅Ρ 2?5 :?Μ2Ε:≅?," EΦΧ≅Α62? E4≅?≅>:4 )6Γ:6Η, E=∆6Γ:6Χ, Γ≅=. 53(8), Α286∆

888-907, %≅Γ6>36Χ

021 B2== # (2006) H2∆ 8=≅32=:Κ2Ε:≅? 492?865 :?Μ2Ε:≅?? %BE) .≅Χ<:?8 ∋2- Α6Χ 12687, %≅Γ6>36Χ.

031 B66Ε∆>2 ). ∃...!. (2005), H6?Χ:< !6?∆6?, ∃≅?6Ε2Χϑ 2?5 Λ∆42= Α≅=:4ϑ :?Ε6Χ24Ε:≅?∆ :? 2 >:4Χ≅-7≅Φ?565 >≅56= ≅7 2 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Φ?:≅?, !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= E4≅?≅>:4∆, −≅=Φ>6 67, ∆∆Φ6 2, ∋286∆ 320-352.

041 B6?:8?≅ ∋:6ΧΑ2≅=≅ (2004), &ΑΕ:>2= >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Α≅=:4ϑ :? 2 4ΦΧΧ6?4ϑ 2Χ62,

!≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= E4≅?≅>:4∆, 63, 2, 293-320.

051 B=62?6ϑ ∃ (1999) +96 5:∆2ΑΑ62Χ:?8 ≅Α6??6∆∆-:?Μ2Ε:≅? Χ6=2Ε:≅?∆9:Α: 2 4Χ≅∆∆-4≅Φ?ΕΧϑ 2?2=ϑ∆:∆ ≅7 :?Μ2Ε:≅? Χ2Ε6∆. .≅Χ<:?8 ∋2Α6Χ .∋/99/161, ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= ∃≅?6Ε2Χϑ FΦ?5, .2∆9:?8Ε≅?, DC.

061 B≅Η5=6Χ, C. (2009), &Α6??6∆∆, 6Ι492?86 Χ2Ε6 Χ68:>6∆ 2?5 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆

4ΦΧΓ6, !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= ∃≅?6ϑ 2?5 F:?2?46 28, 148Π160.

071 C2>Α36==, C. ∃. (2006), A >≅56= ≅7 Ε96 56Ε6Χ>:?2?Ε∆ ≅7 6Ρ≅ΧΕ. E4≅?≅>:4

∃≅56==:?8 23, 215-237.

081 C2>Α36==, C. ∃. (20082), A? 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286 2ΑΑΧ≅249 Ε≅ Χ64≅?4:=:?8 Ε96 Η286 4ΦΧΓ6 2?5 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6, #23≅ΦΧ E4≅?≅>:4∆, 15, 1388-1415.

091 C2>Α36==, C. ∃. (20083), A? 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286 - :>Α6Χ764Ε :?7≅Χ>2Ε:≅?

>≅56= ≅7 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6. .≅Χ<:?8 ∋2Α6Χ 2008-1. %≅ΧΕ96Χ? ==:?≅:∆

,?:Γ6Χ∆:Εϑ.

0101 C2>Α36==, C. ∃. (20102), D6Χ:Γ:?8 Ε96 Η286-Η286 2?5 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6∆ 7Χ≅> 2 >≅56= Η:Ε9 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆ 2?5 :>Α6Χ764Ε :?- 7≅Χ>2Ε:≅?, E4≅?≅>:4∆ #6ΕΕ6Χ∆, 107, 242-245.

0111 C2>Α36==, C. ∃. (20103), AΑΑ6?5:Ι Ε≅ "D6Χ:Γ:?8 Ε96 Η286-Η286 2?5 ΑΧ:46-ΑΧ:46 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6∆ 7Χ≅> 2

>≅56= Η:Ε9 6Θ 4:6?4ϑ Η286∆ 2?5 :>Α6Χ764Ε :?7≅Χ>2Ε:≅?",

9ΕΕΑ://ΗΗΗ.?:Φ.65Φ/64≅?/D:Χ64Ε≅Χϑ/C2>Α36==/∋9:==:Α∆∋2Α6ΧE#AΑΑ6?5:Ι.Α57.

A446∆∆65 ≅? Ε96 8Ε9 ∃2Χ49 2011.

0121 C2>Α36==, C. ∃. (2011), EΘ 4:6?4ϑ Η286 ∆6ΕΕ:?8, =23≅ΦΧ 56>2?5, 2?5

∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6 >:4Χ≅7≅Φ?52Ε:≅?∆, >:>6≅.

0131 C2Γ6=22Χ∆, ∋. (2009), D≅6∆ 8=≅32=:Κ2Ε:≅? 5:∆4:Α=:?6 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Α≅=:4ϑ>2<- 6Χ∆?, !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= ∃≅?6ϑ 2?5 F:?2?46 28, 392Π405.

0141 C92Χ:,−.−., ∀69≅6,∋.!.,∃4GΧ2ΕΕ2?,E.).,2000. ∗Ε:4<ϑ ΑΧ:46 >≅56=∆ ≅7 Ε96 3Φ∆:?6∆∆ 4ϑ4=6: 42? Ε96 4≅?ΕΧ24Ε >Φ=Ε:Α=:6Χ ∆≅=Γ6 Ε96 Α6Χ∆:∆Ε6?46 ΑΧ≅3-

=6>? E4≅?≅>6ΕΧ:42 68,1151Π11 80.

0151 D2?:6=∆ !, −2?H≅≅∆6 D (2006) &Α6??6∆∆, Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, 2?5 :?Μ2Ε:≅?: :∆ Ε96Χ6 2 ΑΦΚΚ=6? ! ?Ε ∃≅?6ϑ F:?2?4 25:1336Π1347 5≅::10.1016/;.;:>≅?Λ?.2006.09.005

0161 D2?:6=∆, !. ∋., %≅ΦΚ2Χ5, F. 2?5 D. D. −2?H≅≅∆6 (2005) &Α6??6∆∆, 46?ΕΧ2=

32?< :?56Α6?56?46, 2?5 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ∃≅?6ϑ CΧ65:Ε 2?5 B2?<:?8, 37, 371-379.

0171 D2?:6=∆, !. ∋. 2?5 D. D. −2?H≅≅∆6 (2009), +Χ256 ≅Α6??6∆∆, 42Α:Ε2= >≅- 3:=:Εϑ 2?5 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, &Α6? E4≅?≅>:6∆ )6Γ:6Η, 20: 473-487.

0181 D2?:6=∆, !. ∋ 2?5 D. D. −2?H≅≅∆6 (2010), EΙ492?86 Χ2Ε6 Α2∆∆ Ε9Χ≅Φ89,

≅Α6??6∆∆, 2?5 Ε96 ∆24Χ:Λ46 Χ2Ε:≅, .≅Χ<:?8 ∋2Α6Χ 2010-05, D6Α2ΧΕ>6?Ε

≅7 E4≅?≅>:4∆, ∃2ΧΒΦ6ΕΕ6 ,?:Γ6Χ∆:Εϑ.

0191 D2?Ε9:?6, !62? ∋:6ΧΧ6 2?5 ∀ΦΧ>2??, A?5ΧΤ (2004), F2:Χ Η286∆ :? 2 %6Η

∀6ϑ?6∆:2? >≅56= ≅7 Ε96 3Φ∆:?6∆∆ 4ϑ4=6, )6Γ:6Η ≅7 E4≅?≅>:4 Dϑ?2>:4∆, 7, ΑΑ. 107-142.

0201 DΦ42 !, −2?H≅≅∆6 D (2000) H2∆ 8Χ62Ε6Χ 4≅>Α6Ε:Ε:≅? Χ6∆ΕΧ2:?65 :?Μ2- Ε:≅?? ∗≅ΦΕ9 E4≅? ! 66:479Π491, 5≅::10.2307/1061435

0211 E586, ).∃. (2002), +96 EΒΦ:Γ2=6?46 ≅7 .286 2?5 ∋Χ:46 ∗Ε2886Χ:?8 :?

∃≅?6Ε2Χϑ BΦ∆:?6∆∆ Cϑ4=6 ∃≅56=∆, )6Γ:6Η ≅7 E4≅?≅>:4 Dϑ?2>:4∆ 5, 559Π 585.

0221 GΧΦ36? ., ∃4#6≅5 D (2002) C2Α:Ε2= 244≅Φ?Ε =:36Χ2=:Κ2Ε:≅? 2?5 :?Μ2- Ε:≅?. E4≅? #6ΕΕ 77:221Π225 5≅::10.1016/∗0165-1765(02)00137-4

0231 GΧΦ36? ., ∃4#6≅5 D (2004) C2Α:Ε2= >2Χ<6Ε =:36Χ2=:Κ2Ε:≅?, 5:∆:?Μ2- Ε:≅?, 2?5 4≅>>:Ε>6?Ε. ∃2?Φ∆4Χ:ΑΕ, F656Χ2= )6∆6ΧΓ6 B2?< ≅7 D2==2∆ 2?5 F≅Χ592> ,?:Γ6Χ∆:Εϑ

0241 ∀2ΧΧ2∆, G. (1999), &Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 Ε96 6Ρ64Ε∆ ≅7 >≅?6Ε2Χϑ Α≅=:4ϑ, !≅ΦΧ?2=

≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= ∃≅?6ϑ 2?5 F:?2?46, 19, 13-26.

0251 #2?6, ∋. (1997), ?Μ2Ε:≅? :? ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>:6∆, !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2=

E4≅?≅>:4∆, 42, 327-247.

0261 #≅>32Χ5≅ G:≅Γ2??: (2006), ?Μ2Ε:≅? Ε2Χ86Ε:?8 ΧΦ=6∆ 2?5 Η6=72Χ6 :? 2?

2∆ϑ>>6ΕΧ:4 4ΦΧΧ6?4ϑ 2Χ62, !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= E4≅?≅>:4∆, 68, 2, 424-442.

0271 #≅Φ?82?:, ∋., )2Κ:?, A. 2?5 C.-.. /Φ6? (2001), C2Α:Ε2= >≅3:=:Εϑ 2?5 Ε96 ≅ΦΕΑΦΕ-:?Μ2Ε:≅? ΕΧ256-≅Ρ. !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 D6Γ6=≅Α>6?Ε E4≅?≅>:4∆, 64:

255-274.

0281 &3∆Ε76=5, ∃., )≅8≅Ρ, ∀., 1996. F≅Φ?52Ε:≅?∆ ≅7 ?Ε6Χ?2Ε:≅?2= ∃24Χ≅64≅-

?≅>:4∆. ∃ + ∋Χ6∆∆, C2>3Χ:586, ∃A, C92ΑΕ6Χ 10.

0291 )2Κ:?, A. 2?5 ∋. #≅Φ?82?: (2005), G=≅32=:Κ2Ε:≅? 2?5 :?Μ2Ε:≅?-≅ΦΕΑΦΕ ΕΧ256≅Ρ∆. %BE) .≅Χ<:?8 ∋2Α6Χ 11641, ∗6ΑΕ6>36Χ.

0301 )2Κ:?, A. 2?5 /Φ6?, C., 2002. +96 Ν%6Η ∀6ϑ?6∆:2?Ο ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6:

4=≅∆65 64≅?≅>ϑ Γ6Χ∆Φ∆ ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ, E4≅?≅>:4∆ #6ΕΕ6Χ∆ 75, 1Π9.

0311 )≅>6Χ, D. (1993), &Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 :?Μ2Ε:≅?: Ε96≅Χϑ 2?5 6Γ:56?46. (Φ2Χ- Ε6Χ=ϑ !≅ΦΧ?2= ≅7 E4≅?≅>:4∆, 108, 869-903.

0321 +6>Α=6 ! (2002) &Α6??6∆∆, :?Μ2Ε:≅?, 2?5 Ε96 ∋9:==:Α∆ 4ΦΧΓ6: 2 ΑΦΚΚ=6.

! ∃≅?6ϑ CΧ65:Ε B2?< 34: 450Π468, 5≅::10.1353/>43.2002.0049

0331 +6ΧΧ2 C (1998) &Α6??6∆∆ 2?5 :?Μ2Ε:≅?: 2 ?6Η 2∆∆6∆∆>6?Ε. ( ! E4≅?

113:641Π648 5≅::10.1162/003355398555603

0341 .2=∆9, C. (2003), ∃≅?6Ε2Χϑ +96≅Χϑ 2?5 ∋≅=:4ϑ, +96 ∃ + ∋Χ6∆∆, C2>- 3Χ:586, ∃A.

0351 .≅≅57≅Χ5, ∃. (2003), ?Ε6Χ6∆Ε 2?5 ∋Χ:46∆: F≅Φ?52Ε:≅?∆ ≅7 2 +96≅Χϑ ≅7

∃≅?6Ε2Χϑ ∋≅=:4ϑ, ∋Χ:?46Ε≅? ,?:Γ6Χ∆:Εϑ ∋Χ6∆∆, ∋Χ:?46Ε≅?, ,∗.

8 A((e&d∀/: De)∀−∀& +!e e3 c∀e&c0 .a e∗

P!∀∃∃∀(∗ c,)−e ,(∋& ∋(e&∀& +!e +)ade ac- c∋,&+ ∋f +!e ec∋&∋%0

+96 ΑΧ6∆6?Ε 2ΑΑ6?5:Ι 7≅4Φ∆6∆ ≅? 2? 64≅?≅>ϑ Η:Ε9 2 4=≅∆65 42Α:Ε2= 244≅Φ?Ε 2?5 2? ≅Α6? ΕΧ256 ≅?6, 8:Γ6? Ε92Ε 2 4≅>Α=6Ε6=ϑ ≅Α6? 64≅?≅>ϑ :∆ 2 ∆Α64:2= 42∆6

≅7 Η92Ε 7≅==≅Η∆. +96 ΑΧ≅465ΦΧ6 36=≅Η :∆ 2 86?6Χ2=:Κ2Ε:≅? 2?5 2 ∆:>Α=:Λ42Ε:≅?

≅7 Ε96 ≅?6 ΑΧ≅Α≅∆65 3ϑ C2>Α36== (20103).

C≅?∆:56Χ 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅? (10) 2?5 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 :?∆:56 :Ε (11) ; (14) 2?5 Ε96 4≅?5:- Ε:≅? ~e~e_W¹ = ^W_P^sse

ss Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:?

^Lt= ^Wt+ (1 %)^∗_t^F + %^∗_t^H + ( 1)^∗^H_t + ^Pt (24) FΦΧΕ96Χ >2<6 6ΙΑ=:4:Ε ^Lt+ ^Wt :? (24) 2?5 ∆Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 :Ε Η:Ε9 ^{y^tH} A^t+ P^_t^e e ¹eud)t 7Χ≅> (14) Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:?

P^t = ^P_t^e A^t e ¹eud)t

(1 %)

∗^^F_t %

∗^^H_t ( 1)

∗^^H_t +∗^^H_t

 (25)

C≅>3:?6 6ΒΦ2Ε:≅?∆ (11) ; (12)2?5 (14) Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:?

^

∗^H_t =  ^At+ 

eu eW u eW W²

(1 e ¹eu∋L)

∋L



d)t (26)

∗Φ3∆Ε:ΕΦΕ6 (26) :?Ε≅ (25) Ε≅ ≅3Ε2:? (18).