Flood Modeling and Simulation using iRIC: A Case Study of Kabul City Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory

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(1)E3S Web of Conferences 7, 04003 (2016) FLOODrisk 2016 - 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management. DOI: 10.1051/ e3sconf/2016 0704003. Flood Modeling and Simulation using iRIC: A Case Study of Kabul City 1,a. 1. Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory , Jun-ichiro Giorgos Tsutsumi and Kazuhito Sakai. 2. 1 Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru 1, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 JAPAN 2 Department of Regional Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru 1, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 JAPAN. Abstract. In Afghanistan, floods are common and measures must be taken to protect people and property from damage. There is, however, a lack of detailed observations and research on this subject in this area. Therefore, flood simulation models are needed to identify flood-prone areas. In this study, International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) program that is river flow and riverbed variation analysis software with several solvers has been used. Nays2DFlood solver that simulates 2dimenstional plane flow has applied to a past flood in Kabul city. River discharge from two inflow points and averaged precipitation from three rain gauges at the time of flooding given as input to the model including DEM (Digital Elevation Model) data. The iRIC was confirmed as a 90-m grid digital elevation model to determine the position of streamlines correctly. However, the highest flood depth was overestimated because the 90-m grids were too coarse to detect the slight slope of the riverbed in some areas. Then the elevation of the riverbed modified using data acquired from Google Earth, and the simulation results improved. Moreover, it was found that river water rather than rainfall was the main cause of the flooding.. 1 Introduction

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(3) a stream or other body of water, or the accumulation of water in areas that are not normally submerged. Floods are affected by various characteristics of precipitation, such as intensity, duration, amount, timing, and phase [1]. Flash floods are powerful enough to sweep entire houses and bridges away, cause severe and costly damage, and are the primary cause of loss of life in Afghanistan [2]. Afghanistan has always been under the periodic threat of flooding due to intense rainfall, melting snow, or a combination of both. Every year, there are many fatalities and thousands of homes are destroyed as a result of floods [3]. The international disaster database reported that 54.3% of all natural disasters in Afghanistan are flood related, and the average annual economic loss was US$92.17 million from 1990 to 2014 [4]. The capital of Afghanistan, Kabul, is also the !! " 3,289,000 in 2012 [5], and it is currently the fifth fastest growing city in the world [6]. Most of the rainfall occurs in April, with the rain events lasting either 1#2 or 3#7 days [7]. In Table 1 a summary of the damage caused by floods in Kabul from 2005 to 2007 is presented. Although the damage varies annually, the numbers of damaged dwellings are large [8]. Many of the most vulnerable houses are constructed in unplanned areas. They are at risk of damage by both earthquakes and floods [9], primarily because the main construction materials used a. are clay and clay bricks, both of which are susceptible to damage during floods and heavy rainfall events. Flood hazard areas have been identified along the administrative boundary between districts 5 and 13 (Figure 1) [8]. In Afghanistan, even basic information is lacking to describe the type of floods, the cause of floods, and the temporal window when floods can be expected. A nationor region-wide map is needed indicating areas that require further investigation and where mitigation studies might be useful [10]. Accordingly, Emlyn Hagen from North Atlantic Treaty Organization introduced the Flood Hazard Mapping Project for Afghanistan in 2008. Utilized a kind of cellular automata in which various amounts of water were simulated by computer to fill up one cell and then flow into the next automaton cell. The data were calibrated using available information from past flood events and remote sensing observational data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory [11]. However, according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, there is a high $

(4) ! ! $ flows in snowmelt- and glacier-fed rivers. Moreover, it is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy rainfalls will increase in the 21st century in many areas of the globe [1]. If these predictions come true, they will affect future flood-prone areas. Therefore, using only past flood data may be not sufficient to establish flood protection plans in the future. Moreover, most of the river flows in. Corresponding author: jamalnaser.shokory@gmail.com. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)..

(5) E3S Web of Conferences 7, 04003 (2016) FLOODrisk 2016 - 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management. DOI: 10.1051/ e3sconf/2016 0704003. Afghanistan depend on the amount of annual rain and snowfall [12]. 14. Year. No. People affected Missing. Killed. Injured. 18. 17. 19. No. Of dwellings. 11. 15 10. Partially damaged. Destroyed 106. 2005. 0. 0. 0. 67. 2006. 0. 12. 9. 150. 0. 2007 0 14 10 Table 1. Major Floods in Kabul.. 645. 281. 9. 4. 5. 21 16. 2. 3. 12. 1 8. 13 Boundary- Municipality Boundary-District 6 Landslide-Area Flood Area Special Area (Old Town) Unplanned Residential Area Unplanned Residential Area (HousingDevelopment) Planned Residential Area Planned Residential Area (<60%) Planned Residential Area (<10%) Planned Residential Area (Multistory) Planned built-up Area Area Used by Defense. Source: DMIS (Disaster Management Information System), National Anti-Disaster Department. . A method to estimate future floods in Afghanistan has not yet been developed. Also, the public monitoring system of flooding in Afghanistan has not been sufficiently developed, and the amount of available data that can be easily obtained is limited. Therefore, a simulation system that can work with a limited amount of data is required. Simulation software is required to develop a simulation system because it takes a long time to write source code for a simulation model, creating simulation systems is challenging. Recently, the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software application was developed specially for river flow analysis in developing countries. iRIC has several solvers, and the Nays2DFlood solver is used for flood analysis. In this study, the iRIC Nays2DFlood solver and flood data that was easily attainable from the Internet for Kabul city was used to evaluate the applicability of iRIC to flood analysis and examine the influence of rainfall and river water on flooding in the area.. 22 7. 20. 0 (

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