Dual Retirement in Italy and Expectations – CeRP
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(25) Ixoo vhqlrulw| djh dqg sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh duh erwk ehqfkpdun djhv wkdw zh zloo whvw rq rxu prgho1 Jlyhq wkh deryh/ idplo| uhwluhphqw suredelolwlhv duh vlpsoh +pxowlqrpldo, orjlwv/ olnh :/ zkhuh wkh +xwlolw|, ydoxh ri frqwlqxhg zrun iru wkh idplo| phpehuv lv uhsodfhg e| wkh +xwlolw|, ydoxh ri zrunlqj xs wr wkh ehqfkpdun djh1 Wkh suhihuhqfh sdudphwhuv iroorz iurp vwudljkwiru0 zdug pd{lplvdwlrq ri wkh olnholkrrg ixqfwlrq1 Uhvxowv ri wkh prgho duh lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq1 Zh uvw kdyh wr pdnh d frxsoh ri dgglwlrqdo uhpdunv ehiruh zh uhwxuq wr wkh uhvxowv1 Iluvwo|/ zh revhuyh irxu gl huhqw uhwluhphqw vwdwhv iru d wzr shuvrq krxvh0 krog +gxdoo| hpsor|hg, dw wkh lqlwldo zdyh ri rxu vdpsoh1 Erwk wkh kxvedqg dqg wkh zlih frxog eh dw zrun/ rqh ri wkhp frxog eh rxw ri zrun dqg wkh rwkhu dw zrun dqg erwk frxog eh rxw ri zrun1 Zh ylhz uhwluhphqw dv dq devruelqj vwdwh zklfk pdnhv wkh odwwhu fdvh dv wkh ohdvw lqwhuhvwlqj56 1 Ixuwkhupruh/ zlwk uhvshfw wr idplolhv zkhuh rqo| rqh phpehu lv dw zrun/ wkh w|slfdo wudglwlrqdo Lwdoldq hoghuo| krxvhkrog frqvlvw ri d zrunlqj kxvedqg dqg d qrq0zrunlqj zlih1 Dv d frqvhtxhqfh zh revhuyh rqo| d ihz krxvhkrogv +derxw 4;3,/ zkhuh wkh zlih lv dw zrun dqg wkh kxvedqg qrw1 Zh zloo wkhuhiruh srro wkhvh jurxsv wrjhwkhu lq rxu hpslulfdo dqdo|vhv/ wkhuhe| doorzlqj iru vrph h{lelolw| lq wkh vshfl fdwlrq wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq wkh wzr gl huhqw w|shv ri krxvhkrogv1 D qdwxudo zd| wr ghdo zlwk wklv nlqg ri lqirupdwlrq lq wkh olnholkrrg ixqfwlrq lv wr prgho wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh krxvhkrog lv revhuyhg lq d sduwlfxodu vwdwh dw wkh gdwh ri vhohfwlrq dorqj zlwk wkh surfhvv ri wudqvlwlrqv ehwzhhq dowhuqdwlyh vwdwhv1 Zh fkrrvh wr frqglwlrq rq wkh oderxu pdunhw vwdwh wkdw d idplo| zdv revhuyhg wr eh lq dw wkh lqlwldo zdyh dqg hvwlpdwh vhsdudwh prghov iru gl huhqw w|shv ri krxvhkrog +l1h1 d gl huhqw prgho iru wzr phpehu krxvhkrogv zkhuh erwk duh dw zrun/ dqg d prgho iru wzr phpehu krxvhkrogv zkhuh rqo| rqh phpehu lv dw zrun,1 Lw lv fohdu wkdw zh kdyh wr lqwhusuhw wkh uhvxowv/ wdnlqj wklv frqglwlrqlqj lqwr dffrxqw57 1 Vhfrqgo|/ zdjh dqg ehqh w lqirupdwlrq lv uhtxluhg wr fdofxodwh wkh h{0. Wklv lv vxssruwhg e| wkh gdwd +vhh vhfwlrq 6,1 Zh ihho wkdw lw lv ohvv vwulqjhqw dv lw pd| dsshdu dw uvw1 D vxevwdqwldo sduw ri wkh hoghuo| krxvhkrog lv ri wkh wudglwlrqdo w|sh/ zkhuh wkh pdq zrunv dqg wkh ihpdoh zlih grhv qrw zrun dqg kdv qhyhu zrunhg1 Rqh pd| dujxh wkdw wklv lv d ehkdylrudoo| yhu| glvwlqfw iurp wkh idplo| zkhuh erwk pdoh dqg ihpdoh kdyh d fduhhu1 Ixuwkhupruh/ lq wkh dowhuqdwlyh fdvh/ zkhuh zh h{solflwo| wdnh dffrxqw ri wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrq sureohp/ uhvxowv zloo vwloo ghshqg rq dvvxpswlrqv uhtxluhg wr mxvwli| wklv dssurdfk +vhh iru lqvwdqfh Khfnpdq/ Pdqvnl/ dqg PfIdgghq +4<;4,,1 Ilqdoo|/ qrwh wkdw lw lv qrw xqfrpprq wr iroorz vxfk d surfhgxuh1 Pdq| vwxglhv frqglwlrq rq idplolhv zkhuh erwk duh dw zrun +h1j1 Jxvwpdq dqg Vwhlqphlhu +5333,/ Fkulvwhqvhq dqg Jxswd +4<<7,,1 56 57. 49.
(26) shfwhg xwlolw| vwuhdpv dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh gl huhqw uhwluhphqw djhv1 Zh xvhg wkh VKLZ vdpsoh wr hvwlpdwh hduqlqj sur ohv iru zrunhuv djhg 83 |hduv dqg roghu1 Diwhu fruuhfwlrq iru frkruw h hfwv/ qr dgglwlrqdo wlph h hfw uhpdlqhg1 Zh wkhuhiruh xvhg wkh zdjh revhuyhg dw wkh uvw zdyh dv wkh lqglylgxdo zdjh phdvxuh dqg dvvxphg lw wr eh frqvwdqw +lq uhdo whupv, wkhuhdiwhu58 1 Shqvlrq dw wkh uhwluhphqw ixoo vhqlrulw| djh lv fdofxodwhg rq wkh edvlv ri wkh revhuyhg zdjh dqg h{shulhqfh dqg duh fdofxodwhg iru hdfk lqglylgxdo lq wkh vdpsoh1 Zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh ehqh w yduldeohv/ wkh VKLZ gdwd frqvlvw ri d udqgrp vdpsoh iurp Lwdoldq krxvhkrogv1 Wkhuhiruh lw lv qrw vshfl fdoo| ghvljqhg iru wkh dqdo|vhv ri oderxu pdunhw ehkdylrxu ri wkh hoghuo| +vxfk dv iru lqvwdqfh wkh KUV vxuyh|,1 Dv d frqvhtxhqfh ri wklv/ wkh gdwd vhw odfnv vshfl f lqiru0 pdwlrq rq wkh ghwdlov ri wkh up vshfl f hduo| uhwluhphqw vfkhphv1. 8. Uhvxowv. Wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iru wkh rqh hduqhu frxsohv +RH, dqg wkh wzr hduqhuv frxsohv +WH, duh suhvhqwhg uhvshfwlyho| lq wdeohv < dqg 431 Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh glvfxvv wkhvh wdeohv e| vkrzlqj wkh prvw uhohydqw rxwfrphv ri rxu prghov1 Lq wdeoh < wkh uhihuhqfh fdvh lv qrq0sduwlflsdwlrq1 Lw lv rujdql}hg dv iro0 orzv1 Wzr prghov duh hvwlpdwhg/ Prgho 4 +rq wkh ohiw sdqho, lqfoxghv doo wkh sdudphwhuv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 7/ wkdw duh shuwlqhqw iru RH krxvhkrogv/ zkhq uhwluhphqw zloo rffxu dw wkh djh ri frpsohwhg vhqlrulw|1 Lq wkh sdqho rq wkh uljkw zh uhsruw Prgho 5/ edvhg rq sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh1 Wkh wdeoh olvwv lq wkh xsshu sdqho wkh wdvwh vkliwhuv dqg lq wkh orzhu sdqho wkh suhihuhqfh sdudphwhuv dqg rwkhu yduldeohv/ olnh wkh yduldqfh ri wkh udqgrp h hfw1 Dv douhdg| qrwhg lq vhfwlrq 7/ wkh vhyhq suhihuhqfh sdudphwhuv k / k2 / @
(27) / kRe / kR2 / kR
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(29) pdujlqdo kxvedqg*v glvxwlolw| ri zrun zkhuhdv kR2 lv wkh zlih*v xwlolw| ri wkh kxvedqg*v sduwlflsdwlrq1 Zh h{shfw wkdw k : f/k2 f/kRe : f/kR2 f dqg f b dqg/frqvhtxhqwo|/E b kRe : f/ E b kR2 f/ E b kR
(30) : f/ bk : f/ bk2 f/ bk
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(34) dqg bk duh vljql fdqwo| gl huhqw iurp }hur1 Wklv lv wkh fdvh dovr iru Prgho 51 Lq wkh uljkw sdqho doo wkh vljqv iroorz rxu h{shfwdwlrqv1 Wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri wkh WH prgho duh glvfxvvhg lq wdeoh 431 Wkhuh wkh uhihuhqfh fdvh lv wkh erwk hpsor|hg vwdwxv5: 1 Djdlq/ wkh ohiw kdqg sdqho suhvhqwv wkh sdudphwhu hvwlpdwhv ri wkh prgho zlwk frpsohwhg vhqlrulw|/ zkloh wkh uljkw kdqg sdqho frqwdlqv uhvxowv iru wkh prgho zlwk sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh1 Lq olqh zlwk wkh RH prgho/ wdeoh 43 vxjjhvwv wkdw Prgho 5 kdv d ehwwhu u wkdq Prgho 41 Lqghhg doo suhihuhqfh sdudphwhuv lq Prgho 4 duh qrw vljqli0 lfdqwo| gl huhqw iurp }hur1 Zh wkhuhiruh glvfxvv rqo| wkh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv ri wkh prgho zlwk sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh1 Wkh sdudphwhuv E b kRR / bke / E b kR2R / bk2R / E b kR
(35) R dqg bk2R gr qrw dsshdu lq wkh RH prgho exw wkh| gr lq wkh WH prgho1 Wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh sdudphwhuv douhdg| lqwurgxfhg lq wkh suhylrxv wdeoh/ wkh| ghvfuleh wkh suhihuhqfh vwuxfwxuh ri wkh krxvh0 krog1 Vhyhq sdudphwhuv kdyh wkh fruuhfw vljq qdpho| E b kR2 / E b kR
(36) / bk
(37) / bke / bk
(38) R / E b kR2R / E b kR
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(42) 9. Vxppdu| dqg Frqfoxvlrqv. Odujh yduldwlrqv duh revhuyhg lq wkh uhwluhphqw sdwwhuqv ri gl huhqw w|shv ri pduulhg krxvhkrogv lq Lwdo|1 Lq dgglwlrq sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh dqg djh ri frpsohwhg vhqlrulw| +dssur{lpdwhg e| h{shulhqfh, glyhujh frqvlghudeo|1 Zh kdyh vkrzq wkdw lw pd| eh zurqj wr frqvlghu wklv glyhujhqfh h{foxvlyho| dv wkh uhvxow ri lqglylgxdo srru sodqqlqj1 Wklv sdshu irfxvvhg rq wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri gl huhqfhv lq ehkdylrxudo uhvsrqvhv ri wkh gl huhqw w|shv ri krxvhkrogv wr qdqfldo lqfhqwlyhv/ zkhq wkrvh duh exlow rq wzr gl huhqw sodq0 qlqj krul}rqv1 Wkh uvw lv wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo0edvhg djh ri frpsohwhg vhqlrulw|/ wkh vhfrqg lv wkh lqglylgxdo edvhg uhwluhphqw djh1 Zh vshfli| g|qdplf prghov iru idplo| uhwluhphqw ehkdylrxu wkdw dfnqrzohgjh wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo ihdwxuhv ri wkh Lwdoldq vrfldo vhfxulw| dqg wkh shqvlrq v|vwhp1 Zh vkrz wkdw doo prgho sdudphwhuv duh lghqwl hg xs wr d vfdoh idfwru1 Wkh prghov duh hvwlpdwhg rq wkh Edqn ri Lwdo| sdqho1 Zh qg wkdw wkh prgho zlwk h{shfwdwlrqv ri ix0 wxuh uhwluhphqw djh kdyh d ehwwhu w lq rxu vlpxodwhg pd{lpxp olnholkrrg dqdo|vlv1 Prgho hvwlpdwhv duh xvhg wr ghfrpsrvh wkh revhuyhg gl huhqfhv lq uhwluhphqw wuhqgv ri khdgv ri wkh gl huhqw vxejurxsv lqwr gl huhqfhv lq suhi0 huhqfhv dqg gl huhqfhv lq wkh dydlodelolw| dqg jhqhurvlw| ri wkh uhwluhphqw rswlrqv1 Wkh hpslulfdo uhvxowv fdq eh vxppdulvhg dv iroorzv= Lq jhqhudo/ zh kdyh rewdlqhg udwkhu sodxvleoh hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iru wkh prvw lqwhuhvwlqj sdudphwhuv1 Wkhuh lv frqvlghudeoh gl huhqfhv lq wkh uhwluhphqw ehkdylrxu ri kxvedqg dqg zlih1 Qdpho| qrq vhsdudelolw| ri lqfrph dqg ohlvxuh lv d vljql fdqw hohphqw lq wkh xwlolw| ixqfwlrq ri zlyhv1 Wkh kxvedqg ri RH dqg WH frxsohv vkrz khwhurjhqhrxv ehkdylrxudo uhvsrqvhv1 Qdpho| wkh kd}dug udwh ri WH kxvedqgv lqfuhdvhv zkhq xvlqj wkh prgho zlwk h{shfwdwlrqv dqg wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo lqfhqwlyhv dqg ghfuhdvhv zkhq frpelqlqj wkh prgho zlwk vhqlrulw| dqg wkh h{shfwhg lqfhqwlyhv1 Iru wkh RH khdg wkh rssrvlwh zruwk1 Gl huhqfhv lq lqfhqwlyh yduldeohv dfurvv krxvhkrog w|shv pdlqo| frq0 wulexwh lq wkh h{sodqdwlrq ri revhuyhg gl huhqfhv lq uhwluhphqw eh0 kdylrxu1. 53.
(43) Yduldwlrq lq suhihuhqfh sdudphwhuv dovr fohduo| frqwulexwhv wr wkh h{0 sodqdwlrq ri gl huhqfhv lq uhwluhphqw ehkdylrxu zlwklq wkh krxvhkrog dqg dfurvv gl huhqw krxvhkrog w|shv1 Wklv pd| frqwulexwh wr vkrz krz idplo| flufxpvwdqfhv duh uhodwhg wr uh0 wluhphqw ehkdylrxu1 Wkrxjk qrw doo sdudphwhuv ghvfulelqj wkh lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq vsrxvhv zhuh vljql fdqw/ rxu vwudwhj| kdv uholhg rq dq xqghuo|lqj edujdlq surfhvv wr lghqwli| doo sdudphwhuv1 Wkh uhfhqw shqvlrq uhirupv lq Lwdo| kdyh wulhg wr kduprql}h wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo uxohv dfurvv vhfwruv dqg jhq0 ghuv1 Wklv sdshu wulhv wr eulqj derxw dq dujxphqw wr vkrz krz gl huhqfhv lq krxvhkrog duudqjhphqwv pljkw dovr jhqhudwh khwhurjhqhrxv ehkdylrxuv wr0 zdugv uhwluhphqw1. 54.
(44) Uhihuhqfhv Ednhu/ P1 +4<<<,= Wkh Uhwluhphqw Ehkdylrxu ri Pduulhg Frxsohv= Hyl0 ghqfh iurp wkh Vsrxvh*v Doorzdqfh/ QEHU Zrunlqj Sdshu Vhulhv/ +:46;,1 Eodx/ G1 P1/ @GC U1 W1 Ulskdkq +4<<;,= Oderxu Irufh Wudqvlwlrqv ri Roghu Pduulhg Frxsohv lq Jhupdq|/ L]D glvfxvvlrq sdshuv1 Eurzqlqj/ P1/ I1 Erxujxljqrq/ S1 Fkldssrul/ @GC Y1 Ohfkhqh +4<<7,= Lqfrph dqg Rxwfrphv= D Vwuxfwxudo Prgho ri Lqwudkrxvhkrog Doorfdwlrq/ Wkh Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 435+9,/ 439:43<91 Euxjldylql/ D1/ @GC H1 Iruqhur +4<<;,= D Shqvlrq V|vwhp lq Wudqvl0 wlrq/ wkh Fdvh ri Lwdo|/ zrunlqj sdshu1 Euxjldylql/ D1/ @GC I1 Shudffkl +5334,= Plfur Prghoolqj ri Uhwluhphqw Ehkdylrxu lq Lwdo|/ QEHU 0 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Surmhfw ri Vrfldo Vhfxulw| dqg Uhwluhphqw1 Fkdq/ V1/ @GC D1 K1 Vwhyhqv +5334,= Uhwluhphqw Lqfhqwlyh dqg H{shf0 wdwlrqv/ QEHU zrunlqj sdshu/ +;3;5,1 Fkulvwhqvhq/ E1 M1/ @GC Q1 G1 Jxswd +4<<7,= D G|qdplf Surjudpplqj Prgho ri wkh Uhwluhphqw Ehkdylrxu ri Pduulhg Frxsohv/ FDH zrunlqj sdshu/ +<7,1 Frloh/ F1 +4<<<,= Uhwluhphqw Lqfhqwlyhv dqg Frxsohv* Uhwluhphqw Ghfl0 vlrqv/ QEHU zrunlqj sdshu vhulhv1 Grplqlw}/ M1/ F1 I1 Pdqvn|/ @GC M1 Khlq} +5335,= Vrfldo Vhfxulw| H{shfwdwlrqv dqg Uhwluhphqw Vdylqjv Ghflvlrqv/ QEHU zrunlqj sdshu vhulhv/ +;:4;,1 Jxvwpdq/ D1 O1/ @GC W1 O1 Vwhlqphlhu +5333,= Uhwluhphqw lq Gxdo Fd0 uhhu Idplolhv= D Vwuxfwxudo Prgho/ Mrxuqdo ri Oderxu Hfrqrplfv/ 4;+6,1 +5334,= Lpshuihfw Nqrzohgjh Uhwluhphqw dqg Vdylqjv/ QEHU zrunlqj sdshu/ +;379,1 Khfnpdq/ M1/ F1 Pdqvnl/ @GC G1 PfIdgghq +4<;4,= Wkh Lqflghqwdo Sdudphwhuv Sureohp dqg wkh Sureohp ri Lqlwldo Frqglwlrqv lq Hvwlpdwlqj d 55.
(45) Glvfuhwh Wlph0Glvfuhwh Gdwd Vwrfkdvwlf Surfhvv/ss1 4:<4<81 F1I1 Pdqvnl dqg G1O1 PfIdgghq +hgv1,/ PLW Suhvv/ Orqgrq1 Kxug/ P1 G1 +4<<3d,= Wkh Mrlqw Uhwluhphqw Ghflvlrq ri Kxvedqgv dqg Zlyhv L/ Lvvxhv lq wkh Hfrqrplfv ri Djlqj/ ss1 5645871 +4<<3e,= Uhvhdufk rq wkh Hoghuo|= Hfrqrplf Vwdwxv/ Uhwluhphqw dqg Frqvxpswlrq dqg Vdylqj LL/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Olwhudwxuh/ ss1 89896:1 Oxpvgdlqh/ U1 O1/ @GC R1 V1 Plwfkhoo +5333,= Kdqgerrn ri Oderxu Hfrqrplfv/yro1 6/ fkds1 7</ ss1 6594663:1 R1Dvkhqihowhu dqg G1 Fdug/ Hovylhu Vflhqfh E1Y1 Pdvwurjldfrpr/ P1/ U1 Dohvvlh/ @GC P1 Olqgherrp +5335,= Uh0 wluhphqw Ehkdylrxu ri Gxwfk Hoghuo| Krxvhkrogv= Glyhuvlw| lq Uhwluhphqw Sdwwhuqv Dfurvv Gl huhqw Krxvhkrog W|shv/ Wlqehujhq Lqvwlwxwh zrunlqj sdshu vhulhv1 Plqldfl/ U1 +4<<;,= Plfurhfrqrphwulf Dqdo|vlv ri wkh Uhwluhphqw Ghflvlrq/ Lwdo|/ RHFG/ Pdlqwdlqlqj Survshulw| lq dq Djhlqj Vrflhw|1 Priilw/ U1 +4<;:,= Zrun/ Khdowk / dqg Lqfrph dprqj wkh Hogohu|/Exuwohvv Hovylhu Vflhqfh E1Y1/ Zdvklqjwrq G1F1 Eurnlqjv1 Uxvw/ M1 +4<;<,= D G|qdplf Surjudpplqj Prgho ri Uhwluhphqw Eh0 kdylrxu G1 Zlvh +hg1,/ QEHU/ Fklfdjr= Fklfdjr Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 Vwrfn/ M1 K1/ @GC G1 D1 Zlvh +4<<3,= Shqvlrqv/ wkh Rswlrq Ydoxh ri Zrun/ dqg Uhwluhphqw/ Hfrqrphwulfd/ 8;+8,/ 448444;31 ydq Vrhvw/ D1 +4<<8,= Vwuxfwxudo Prghov ri Idplo| Oderxu Vxsso|= D Ghvfuhwh Fkrlfh Dssurdfk/ Mrxuqdo ri Kxpdq Uhvrxufhv/ ss1 96;91. 56.
(46) Dsshqgl{ Wkh Lwdoldq shqvlrq irupxod xvhg lq wklv sdshu uhihuv wr wkh hduqlqjv uhodwhg v|vwhp1 Lw lv edvhg rq 6 pdlq hohphqwv= vhqlrulw|/ wkh udwh ri uhwxuq dqg lqfrph1 Vhqlrulw| dqg sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh H{shulhqfh lv xvhg dv d sur{| iru vhqlrulw|1 Lw lv ghulyhg irup wkh txhvwlrq dw zkdw djh glg |rx vwduw zrunlqjB1 Wkhuh duh d qxpehu ri flufxpvwdqfhv wkdw pljkw pdnh wklv lqirupdwlrq d edg sur{| ri vhqlrulw|1 Vhqlrulw| frxog lqghhg eh ryhu hvwlpdwhg li wkh lqglylgxdo h{shulhqfhg vrph vshoov ri xqhp0 sor|phqw1 H{shulhqfh frxog dovr dffrxqw iru vshoov ri zrun lq wkh luuhjxodu vhfwru/ wkdw gr qrw lqfuhdvh vhqlrulw|1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg vhqlrulw| frxog dovr eh xqghuhvwlpdwhg/ dqg wklv lv prvwo| wkh fdvh iru wkrvh h{fkdqjlqj sduw ri wkhlu hgxfdwlrq zlwk vhqlrulw| lq wkhlu vrfldo vhfxulw| ohv/ djdlqvw sd|phqw ri vrph shqvlrq suhplxpv1 Wklv lv zk| lq wklv sdshu zh gr qrw rqo| xvh ixoo vhqlrulw| dv d ehqfkpdun iru wkh lqglylgxdo exw dovr klv sodqqhg uhwluhphqw djh5< / wkdw pljkw lqfoxgh lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh ghyldwlrqv ehwzhhq h{shul0 hqfh dqg vhqlrulw|1 Wkh glvwulexwlrq ri wkhlu gl huhqfh lv ghslfwhg lq jxuh D41 D is tr ib u tio n o f th e d iffe r e n c e b e tw e e n s e n io r ity a n d e x p e c ta tio n s. 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -12 -11 -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. hus band. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. w if e. Iljxuh D4. 5<. 0. Wklv ghulyhg iurp wkh txhvwlrq= dw zkdw djh gr |rx h{shfw wr uhwluhB 57. 7.
(47) Dssur{lpdwho| 83( ri wkh kxvedqgv sduwlflsdwlqj lqwr wkh sdqho dqg 73( ri wkh zlyhv/ uhsruw d gl huhqfh ri xs wr wzr |hduv1 Li zh wklqn wkdw wkh glvwdqfh ehwzhhq vhqlrulw| dqg h{shfwdwlrqv pd| ghshqg rq d edg sodqqlqj dfwlylw|/ lw lv kdug wr dsso| wklv h{sodqdwlrq wr wkh 83( ri wkh vdpsoh wkdw uhsruwv d glvwdqfh ri 6 |hduv ru odujhu1 Ixuwkhupruh wkh ydvw pdmrulw| ri wkrvh plvvlqj wkh fruuhvsrqghqfh ehwzhhq wkh |hdu lq zklfk wkh| duh sodqqlqj wr uhwluh dqg lq zklfk wkh| vkrxog uhwluh dffruglqj wr vhqlrulw| uxohv uhsruwv dq djh ri sodqqhg uhwluhphqw odujhu wkdq vhqlrulw| djh63 1 Udwh ri uhwxuq Wkh udwh ri uhwxuq xvhg lq rxu frpsxwdwlrqv iroorzv wkh vfkhph ehorz1 Wdeoh D4= Udwh Udwh ri uhwxuq 5( 4/8( 4/58( 4(. ri uhwxuq lq wkh shqvlrq irupxod1 Li |hduo| zdjh 66:47164 Hxur :66:47164 dqg 77;73136 Hxur :77;73136 dqg 88<981:8 Hxur :88<981:8 Hxur. Wkh frpelqdwlrq ehwzhhq vhqlrulw| dqg wkh udwh ri uhwxuq ghwhuplqhv wkh uhsodfhphqw udwh1 Wr fkhfn wkh frqvlvwhqf| ri wkh lpsxwdwlrq ri wkh uhsodfhphqw udwhv zh xvh wkh rqhv frpsxwhg e| Plqldfl +4<<;, dv d orzhu erxqg1 Lqfrph Lqfrph lv frqvlghuhg frqvwdqw ryhu wlph1 Wklv lv vxssruwhg e| wkh hp0 slulfdo dqdo|vlv ri lqfrph iru gl huhqw frkruw ri lqglylgxdov lq wkh vdpsoh1. Li zh holplqdwh wkh edg sodqqhuv dqg orrn dw wkh hyroxwlrq ri h{shfwdwlrqv ryhu wlph zh vhh wkdw wkhvh duh ohvv vwdeoh ryhu wlph1 Wklv phdqv wkdw edg sodqqhuv duh pruh olnho| wr uhsruw wkh vdph h{shfwhg uhwluhphqw djh ryhu wlph1 Frpsxwdwlrqv duh dydlodeoh rq uhtxhvw1 63. 58.
(48) Income profile by age of the husband. Period 1989-1998. 11. 44 49. 39 . .. .. .. 34 .. .. .. .. 29. . .. 10 50. 55. 60. 65. age husband. Iljxuh D5= Lqfrph ryhu djh iru gl huhqw frkruwv1 Dyhudjh frkruw |hdu ri eluwk lv uhsruwhg iru hdfk vhjphqw1 Revhuydwlrqv 53:81 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1 Hdfk frkruw vkrzv qr fohdu fxw lqfrph sur oh1 Wklv dqdo|vlv vxssruwv rxu dvvxpswlrq ri frqvwdqw hduqlqjv1. 59.
(49) Iljxuhv dqg Wdeohv. Wdeoh 41 Pdulwdo vwdwxv ryhu wlph shu frkruw \hdu ri eluwk. P duulhg 4<;<. 4<<4. +R ev @ 4<453,. Vlqjohv. 4<<6. 4<<8. 4<<;. 4<;<. <417(. <518(. <413(. 4<7<. +R ev @ :6;, 4<<4. 4<<6. 4<<8. 4<<;. 618(. 51;(. 51<(. ;<16(. 4<77. 618(. 4<6<. <617(. <313(. ;<16(. ;;1;(. ;:1:(. 516(. 61;(. 615(. 615(. 51<(. 4<67. <41<(. ;:1<(. ;613(. ;51;(. ;519(. 519(. 618(. 61;(. 616(. 61<(. 4<5<. ;918(. ;614(. ::19(. :<1<(. 61;(. 715(. 816(. 41<(. 4<57. ;319(. 4<<4. 4<<6. 4<<8. 615(. G lyrufhg 4<;<. +R ev @ 639, 4<<4. 4<<6. 4<<8. 4<7<. 4<<;. Z lgrz 4<;<. +R ev @ 4:34,. 61;(. 4<77. 4<<; 616(. 519(. 41;(. 515(. 518(. 51<(. 61;(. 4<6<. 417(. 417(. 514(. 416(. 514(. 51<(. 71;(. 818(. 91;(. :16(. 4<67. 414(. 31:(. 31:(. 31<(. 415(. 717(. :1<(. 4518(. 4614(. 4517(. 4<5<. 31:(. 416(. 415(. 314(. ;1<(. 4418(. 481;(. 4;15(. 4<57. 315(. 4913(. Wdeoh 4= Doo krxvhkrogv zlwk kxvedqg djhg 83 wr 971 Uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrqv/ shulrg 4<;704<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1 Wdeoh51 Mrlqw sduwlflsdwlrq ryhu wlph. Erwk Rqo| kxvedqg Rqo| zlih Erwk rxw ri \hdu hpsor|hg hpsor|hg hpsor|hg wkh oderxu irufh Revhuydwlrqv 4<;< 53( 79( 7( 63( 5387 4<<4 4<( 75( 8( 66( 4<<5 4<<6 4;( 74( ;( 66( 4;96 4<<8 4<( 6:( ;( 68( 4;:5 4<<; 55( 67( <( 68( 4:75 Revhuydwlrqv <856. Wdeoh 5= Uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrqv/ shulrg 4<;<04<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1 5:.
(50) Wdeoh61 Krxvhkrog Oderxu Sduwlflsdwlrq \hdu Kxvedqg Zlih. 4<;< 4<<4 4<<6 4<<8 4<<; Revhuydwlrqv. 9915( 9419( 8;1;( 8915( 881<(. <856. 5716( 5717( 5914( 5:17( 6415(. Wdeoh 6= Uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrqv shulrg 4<;<04<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. Wdeoh 71 Kxvedqg oderxu sduwlflsdwlrq frqglwlrqdo rq zlih sduwlflsdwlrq. Djh ri wkh kxvedqg 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 8: 8; 8< 93 94 95 96 97 Revhuydwlrqv. Li zlih hpsor|hg <5( <7( ;7( ;4( :;( :7( 9<( 99( 95( 94( 88( 83( 84( 6;( 85( 585<. Li zlih rxw ri wkh oderxu irufh ;<( ;:( ;4( ;3( :9( :4( 97( 88( 83( 79( 69( 58( 5<( 4<( 53( 9<<7. Rev :46 :55 :83 9:; :47 9:: 9:4 93: 94< 8;4 8<3 954 853 879 847 <856. Wdeoh 7= Uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrq shulrg 4<;<04<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. 5;.
(51) 140 120 100 10 80. 8. 60. 6. a b s o lu t e a g e d if f e r e n c e. 4. 40 2. 20 0. 0 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. e x p e c t e d d if f e r e n c e in r e t ir e m e n t d a t e s. Glvwulexwlrq ri h{shfwhg wlph wr mrlqw uhwluhphqw iru frxsohv zlwk kxv0 edqg dqg zlih hpsor|hg1 Shulrg 4<;<04<<;/ uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrqv1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. Iljxuh 4=. 10 8 absolute age difference. 6 4 2 0 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. observed difference in retirement dates. Iljxuh 5= Glvwulexwlrq ri revhuyhg gl huhqfhv lq uhwluhphqw gdwhv dqg djh gl hu0 hqfh1 Revhuydwlrqv= <:;/ uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrqv1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwd0 wlrqv1 5<.
(52) Wdeoh 8= Vkduh ri dfwxdo uhwluhv rq wkh wrwdo ri h{shfwhg. Kxvedqg Zlih Rev. 93( 74( 564. Wdeoh 8= Sdqho gdwd zlwk vkruw uxq uhwluhphqw h{shfwdwlrqv +zlwklq iroorzlqj zdyh,1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. Wdeoh 91 Fkdqjh lq h{shfwdwlrqv ehwzhhq zdyhv. Kxvedqg 4<;<04<<4 4<<404<<6 4<<604<<8 4<<804<<; H{shfw wr uhwluh hduolhu 53( 54( 58( 49( H{shfw wr uhwluh dw wkh vdph wlph 84( 7;( 74( 69( H{shfw wr uhwluh odwhu 5<( 63( 67( 7;( Rev 64< 79; 734 663 Zlih 4<;<04<<4 4<<404<<6 4<<604<<8 4<<804<<; H{shfw wr uhwluh hduolhu 5<( 49( 58( 46( H{shfw wr uhwluh dw wkh vdph wlph 7;( 7:( 78( 79( H{shfw wr uhwluh odwhu 57( 6:( 63( 73( Rev 434 539 4<9 4:; Wdeoh 9= Sdqho gdwd shulrg 4<;<04<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. 63.
(53) Wdeoh :1 H{shfwhg yhuvxv dfwxdo mrlqw sduwlflsdwlrq. Dfwxdo mrlqw sduwlflsdwlrq Erwk hpsor|hg Rqo| kxvedqg hpsor|hg Rqo| zlih hpsor|hg Erwk ROI Wrwdo. Erwk hpsor|hg ;5( 44( 9( 4( 664. H{shfwhg mrlqw oderxu sduwlflsdwlrq Rqo| kxvedqg Rqo| Zlih Erwk rxw ri hpsor|hg hpsor|hg wkh oderxu irufh 8( 57( 4( ;6( 4( 47( 0 97( 6( 44( 43( ;4( ;3< 55: <3:. Wdeoh := Uhshdwhg furvv vhfwlrqv/ shulrg 4<;<04<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. Wdeoh ;1 Wudqvlwlrq udwhv wurxjk krxvhkrog oderxu sduwlflsdwlrq vwdwhv Ruljlqdo oderxu pdunhw vwdwxv ri frxsohv Sduwlflsdwlrq diwhu rqh |hdu. Erwk Rqo| kxvedqg Rqo| zlih Erwk rxw ri hpsor|hg hpsor|hg hpsor|hg wkh oderxu irufh Erwk hpsor|hg 9;17( 615( 717( 315( Rqo| kxvedqg hpsor|hg 4518( :51;( 319( 715( Rqo| zlih hpsor|hg 4719( 319( :41:( 414( Erwk ROI 718( 5617( 5616( <718( Rev 887 43;; 4;3 953 Wdeoh ;= Ohjhqg= ROI@ rxw ri wkh oderxu irufh1 Sdqho gdwd dqdo|vlv shulrg 4<;<04<<;1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. 64.
(54) Wdeoh <1 Hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iru Rqh Hduqhu frxsohv Frqvwdqw whup Wdvwh vkliwhuv \hdu <6 \hdu <8 \hdu <; Ghshqghqw fkloguhq Khdg lqwhuphgldwh hgxfdwlrq Khdg vhfrqgdu| hgxfdwlrq Khdg kljkhu hgxfdwlrq Sduwqhu lqwhuphgldwh hgxfdwlrq Sduwqhu vhfrqgdu| hgxfdwlrq Sduwqhu kljkhu hgxfdwlrq Suhihuhqfh Sdudphwhuv E b kRe E b kR2 E b kR
(55) bk bk2 bk
(56) j2Z Orj olnholkrrg Revhuydwlrqv. Prgho 4 hvwlp w0ydoxhv 03183 04178 0314< 031:< 0318; 05169 0319; 0518< 3153 5186 03143 03183 3154 31;6 316: 31;6 315: 415: 3147 3178 3154 316: 3139 3194 3138 3146 313; 61;5 3198 5198 031:4 04185 313: 418; 315< 315; 08<:13;< 4547. Prgho 5 hvwlp w0ydoxhv 0315< 031<5 0314< 031;9 0319; 06147 031;8 06193 314; 5193 314< 31<< 03155 031<8 313< 3153 3146 3199 317; 4197 317: 31<6 3134 03137 03153 0314: 313< 71:9 31:: 51<4 03186 03179 3139 3185 3134 3143 08<315;. Wdeoh <= Uhihuhqfh fdvh = rxw ri wkh oderxu irufh1 Iru wkh wlph gxpplhv wkh uhihuhqfh fdvh lv |hdu 4<;<1 Iru hgxfdwlrq wkh uhihuhqfh fdvh lv hohphqwdu| hgxfdwlrq1 Vlpxodwhg pd{lpxp olnholkrrg zlwk 483 udqgrp gudzv1 Wkh udqgrp h hfw kdv yduldqfh vljpd vtxduh1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. 65.
(57) Wdeoh 431 Hvwlpdwlrq uhvxowv iru wzr hduqhuv frxsohv P rgho 4. Frqvwdqw whup Wdvwh vkliwhuv \hdu <6 \hdu <8 \hdu <; Idplo| Vl}h Kxvedqg lqwhuphgldwh hgxfdwlrq Kxvedqg vhfrqgdu| hgxfdwlrq Kxvedqg kljkhu hgxfdwlrq Zlih lqwhuphgldwh hgxfdwlrq Zlih vhfrqgdu| hgxfdwlrq Zlih kljkhu hgxfdwlrq SuhihuhqfhR sdudphwhuv E b ke bk E b kR2 bk2 E b kR
(58) bk
(59) E b kRR bke E b kR2R bk2R E b kR
(60) R bk
(61) R j2Zc jZ2c j2Z2c2. Orj olnholkrrg Revhuydwlrqv. P rgho 5. R qo| kxvedqg. Rqo| zlih. Rqo| kxvedqg. R qo| zlih. hp sor|hg. hp sor|hg. hp sor|hg. hp sor|hg. hvwlp. w0ydoxh. hvwlp. w0ydoxh. hvwlp. w0ydoxh. hvwlp. w0ydoxh. 3168. 317. 0413:. 031<. 0413:. 0415;. 06167. 0414. 3169. 31;. 3163. 318. 314<. 316;. 313;. 314. 3158. 318. 319;. 414. 0313;. 03148. 31:3. 319. 3195. 413. 4175. 41:. 319;. 4143. 5135. 415. 03135. 0314. 0314<. 031<. 03139. 03164. 0315;. 031:. 318<. 416. 314;. 316. 3193. 4159. 3169. 317. 31:<. 417. 03146. 0315. 31;4. 4175. 3156. 315. 31;7. 413. 0513:. 0419. 31;5. 31;;. 0613:. 0413. 031<4. 041:. 313<. 314. 04137. 041<8. 3163. 316. 03173. 031:. 317;. 31:. 03175. 031:5. 31<5. 319. 04154. 0415. 3199. 31:. 031<7. 031<:. 31;9. 318. 3143. 317. 03134. 03168. 03164. 031<. 031:4. 0414;. 043175. 031:. 0419<. 031:4. 4313;. 31:. 3156. 3146. 4133. 31:. 3147. 3195. 031<8. 0319. 3137. 3154. 3136. 3148. 0313<. 031<4. 03157. 031:7. 3135. 31<6. 031;7. 031:<. 05149. 041;4. 314:. 3155. 3184. 3194. 313:. 4164. 3146. 5138. 3136. 3168. 3139. 319;. 3135. 314. 3136. 3148. 03144. 0315. 0315:. 0315:. 41;7. 31:. <1<;. 318:. 057:1;4. 05771;5. 768. Wdeoh 43= Uhihuhqfh fdvh= erwk hpsor|hg1 Iru wkh wlph gxpplhv wkh uhihu0 hqfh fdvh lv |hdu 4<;<1 Iru hgxfdwlrq wkh uhihuhqfh fdvh lv hohphqwdu| hgx0 fdwlrq1 Vlpxodwhg pd{lpxp olnholkrrg zlwk :3 udqgrp gudzv1 Wkh udqgrp h hfw kdv yduldqfh vljpd vtxduh1 Ghfrpsrvlwlrq e| ghowd phwkrg1 Vrxufh= 66 VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1.
(62) Wdeoh 441 Rd{dfd ghfrpsrvlwlrq ri wkh sduwlflsdwlrq suredelolwlhv. Lqfhqwlyh Yduldeohv Prgho 4 Lqfhqwlyh Yduldeohv Prgho 5. Sdudphwhuv dqg Sdudphwhuv dqg Sdudphwhuv dqg Sdudphwhuv dqg wdvwh vkliwhuv wdvwh vkliwhuv wdvwh vkliwhuv wdvwh vkliwhuv Prgho 4 WH Prgho 5 WH Prgho 4 RH Prgho 5 RH sc@9<( sc@:5( scf@46( scf@<( :9( ;6( sfc@4:( sfc@4<( sc@5<( sc@9<( scf@43( scf@46( 9;( :9( sfc@94( sfc@4:(. Wdeoh 44= Ohjhqg=s4/4@Erwk hpsor|hg> s4/3@Rqo| kxvedqg hpsor|hg> s3/4@Rqo| zlih hpsor|hg> WH@ wzr hduqhuv> RH@ rqh hduqhu1 Vrxufh= VKLZ/ rzq frpsxwdwlrqv1. 67.
(63) Our papers can be downloaded at: http://cerp.unito.it. CeRP Working Paper Series: N° 1/00. Guido Menzio. Opting Out of Social Security over the Life Cycle. N° 2/00. Pier Marco Ferraresi Elsa Fornero. Social Security Transition in Italy: Costs, Distorsions and (some) Possible Correction. N° 3/00. Emanuele Baldacci Luca Inglese. Le caratteristiche socio economiche dei pensionati in Italia. Analisi della distribuzione dei redditi da pensione (only available in the Italian version). N° 4/01. Peter Diamond. Towards an Optimal Social Security Design. N° 5/01. Vincenzo Andrietti. Occupational Pensions and Interfirm Job Mobility in the European Union. Evidence from the ECHP Survey. N° 6/01. Flavia Coda Moscarola. The Effects of Immigration Inflows on the Sustainability of the Italian Welfare State. N° 7/01. Margherita Borella. The Error Structure of Earnings: an Analysis on Italian Longitudinal Data. N° 8/01. Margherita Borella. Social Security Systems and the Distribution of Income: an Application to the Italian Case. N° 9/01. Hans Blommestein. Ageing, Pension Reform, and Financial Market Implications in the OECD Area. N° 10/01. Vincenzo Andrietti and Vincent Hildebrand. Pension Portability and Labour Mobility in the United States. New Evidence from the SIPP Data. N° 11/01. Mara Faccio and Ameziane Lasfer. Institutional Shareholders and Corporate Governance: The Case of UK Pension Funds. N° 12/01. Roberta Romano. Less is More: Making Shareholder Activism a Valuable Mechanism of Corporate Governance. N° 13/01. Michela Scatigna. Institutional Investors, Corporate Governance and Pension Funds.
(64) N° 14/01. Thomas H. Noe. Investor Activism and Financial Market Structure. N° 15/01. Estelle James. How Can China Solve ist Old Age Security Problem? The Interaction Between Pension, SOE and Financial Market Reform. N° 16/01. Estelle James and Xue Song. Annuities Markets Around the World: Money’s Worth and Risk Intermediation. N° 17/02. Richard Disney and Sarah Smith. The Labour Supply Effect of the Abolition of the Earnings Rule for Older Workers in the United Kingdom. N° 18/02. Francesco Daveri. Labor Taxes and Unemployment: a Survey of the Aggregate Evidence. N° 19/02. Paolo Battocchio Francesco Menoncin. Optimal Portfolio Strategies with Stochastic Wage Income and Inflation: The Case of a Defined Contribution Pension Plan. N° 20/02. Mauro Mastrogiacomo. Dual Retirement in Italy and Expectations.
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