LIVE WEBINAR
4 July 2018
14:30-15:15 CEST (Paris time) 8:00-9:15 EDT (Washington DC)
Wageless growth: is this time different?
OECD Employment Outlook 2018
Stefano Scarpetta, Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD
Andrea Bassanini, Senior Economist, Jobs and Income Division, OECD
Wageless growth: is this time different?
OECD Employment Outlook 2018
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Publication URL: oe.cd/employment-outlook
For more information: www.oecd.org/social
Back to work, but out of pocket
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
A. Unemployment rate Percentage of total labour force
Q4 2017 Q1 2010 Q4 2007
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
B. Real hourly wage growth Year-on-year percentage change
The wage stagnation is not evenly distributed across workers
Real annual earnings
Productivity growth has slowed down
Average annualised percentage growth rate of hourly labour productivity
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
ITA USA ESP GBR JPN AUS FRA NLD DEU CAN OECD SWE
Q4 2012-Q4 2017 Q4 2007-Q1 2009 Q1 2000-Q4 2007
Productivity growth has become
concentrated in highly innovative firms
Labour productivity index, OECD average, 2001=100
Real wages have decoupled from labour productivity
Indexes, OECD average, 1995=100
100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Total economy
Labour productivity Real average compensation Real med. compensation
Shortages in high-level cognitive and social skills are rising
-0.020 -0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025
Written Expression Written Comprehension Oral Expression Deductive Reasoning Inductive Reasoning Fluency of Ideas Oral Comprehension Problem Sensitivity Originality Mathematical Reasoning Speech Clarity Peripheral Vision Glare Sensitivity Spatial Orientation Response Orientation Gross Body Equilibrium Depth Perception Rate Control Speed of Limb Movement Reaction Time Arm-Hand Steadiness Gross Body Coordination Dynamic Strength Control Precision Stamina Manual Dexterity Multilimb Coordination Trunk Strength Extent Flexibility Static Strength
Initial year Final year
Shortages in cognitive skills have become more
pervasive
Surpluses in routine and physical abilities have become more evident
Cognitive skills Routine skills and physical abilities
Source: OECD Skills for Jobs Database
Almost 40% of adults lack basic problem-solving digital skills
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
JPN AUS IRL OECD SWE CAN DEU USA GBR
Percentage of adults who lack basic skills to solve problems in technology rich environments
Involuntary part-time employment has risen significantly in many countries
Involuntary part-time employment as a proportion of total dependent employment
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
%
2016 2006
There has been an improvement in the relative earnings of full-time workers
Annualised growth rate of real hourly earnings in %, 2006-14
Long-term unemployment has increased, resulting in lower benefit coverage
Unemployment benefit recipients and unemployed, headcounts 2007=100, OECD average
Jobseekers may have become less selective when nearing benefits exhaustion
Annualised growth rate of real monthly wages in %, 2007-14
Workforce groups at greater risk of labour market disadvantage receive less training
Participation in formal and/or non-formal education by educational attainment (2012), 25-64 years-olds
Key policy principles for effective Skill Anticipation Systems
Identify clear objectives
Set up information
systems
Involve relevant stakeholders Use the
results for policy making
Contact
stefano.scarpetta@oecd.org
oe.cd/employment-outlook www.oecd.org/social
@OECD_Soc
@OECD_Social
@stescarpetta
THANK YOU!
