Population 65+ / 20-65

(1)

Alessandra Venturini, University of Turin, MPC, Florence

T.wai-CICIR Workshop agenda October 19-2015

The future of European Migration:

Aging, Channel of entrance and Welfare

26/04/2016 MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu 1

(2)

www.migrationpolicycentre.eu MPC

• Europe is aging

• Composition

• Increasing share of the elderly

•

Old age dependency ratio (65+/20-64) appropriate for pension studies

• Super Old age dependency ratio (75+/20-74)

•

Impact on the welfare cost and on the long term care needs of the elderly

(3)

3

26/04/2016 MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu

Fig.1: Old age dependency ratio 1952-2050

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Population 65+ / 20-65

World 27 MS

Source: Philippe Fargues, 2011, Author's calculation based on UN Population Data Online

(4)

Also China is aging rapidly

(5)

(6)

Population 75+/ population 20-74

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

28 MS

World

(7)

(8)

The demand for care services will increase

and the demand of care givers in the public, private and family sectors according to the type of welfare state model prevailing in the economy will increase .

Foreign workers medium and low skilled Temporary or permanent

Not only young (Ukrainen migrants in Italy average age 55)

Demand of care givers will increase not only because the elderly persons increase but also becuase the domestic labour supply declines

.

(9)

(10)

MPC, A. Dibartolomeo, A. Venturini (2014)

Dependant variable: share of Third Country National caregivers on total caregivers (EU15)

Coef. Std. Err.

% of unemployed and inactive native females on the total native population (aged 15-64) -0.28 0.12

% people aged 75+ 0.60 0.23

% long-term care expenditures of the GDP 1.87 1.5

constant -0.79 6.71

(11)

Europe is aging

• Size

• The European Labour force (age 15-59) is 313 million in 2010 while without migration in 2050 will be 246 million or with similar migration inflows 299 million.

• The stock of EU27 working population is reducing by 9.5%

every 10 years or 4.5% if the inflows continue

(Ph.Fargues 2012)

(12)

MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu 12

60 80 100 120

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Base 100 in 2015

Fig. 4: Population aged 20-44 years in EU Member States 2015-2035 No-migration scenario

EUROSTAT Data

(13)

• This evolution of the native population needs migrants

• to satisfy the care demand a temporary migration of medium and low skilled workers could also be a solution,

• the decreasing size of the population permanent migrants are needed

• as future EU citizens and thus

• a new vision of the integration policy .

(14)

• Aging of skills

• With the extension of working life workers has longer professional life Human Capital Theory

• Youngs not only a pleasure, consumption dimension

• Investement dimension for future growth and innovation

(15)

0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000 7.000.000 8.000.000

20 30 40 50 60 70

Fig. 5: Distribution of the working age population by year of age in 2015 and 2035 , maintaining total

numbers constant in the no-migration scenario

2015 2035

42.8 years 47.0 years

(16)

Paula Stephen MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu 16

(17)

0 25.000 50.000 75.000 100.000 125.000 150.000 175.000 200.000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Age in years

Fig 6: Immigration flows in 2010 by age - EU28

EUROSTAT Data

(18)

• the research has shown a very strong young age dividend, both among foreigners, expecially among the high educated (MPC, Venturini, Fassio, Montobbio 2015)

• Thus Europe needs also highly skilled permanent migrants

for innovation

(19)

40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Base 100 in 2014

Fig. 3: Population aged 20-44 years in EU28 Member States - main migration scenario 2015-2035

EUROSTAT Data

(20)

• Multi level governance of migration

• Europe

• National legislation

• Regional or local legislation

(21)

• Family reunification directive

• Refugees directive

• European preference

• Global migration approach

• Blue Card

• Circular Migration

• Neibourhood Policy

• Partnership agreements

European Migration policy

(22)

Source: Lemaître G., 2014, Migration in Europe,in Matching Economic Migration with Labour Needs, OCDE and EU, p.351

26/04/2016

MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu 22

(23)

Different doors of entrance Different legislations

• Family reunification 50%

• Labour 30%

• Refugees 20%

Back door

(24)

(25)

3-The Neighbor countries have different attractors

0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000

Turkey Israel Jordan Lebanon Palestine Syria Egypt Libya Mauritania Morocco Algeria Tunisia Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Ukraine

EU Southern neighborhood and Turkey EU Eastern neighborhood Others US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Russia and post-Soviet states Arab states EU

(26)

www.migrationpolicycentre.eu MPC ²⁶

Share of highly skilled migrants by country of origin to main destination areas in 2000 (Source: Docquier & Marfook)

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

Algeria Chad

Egypt Jordan

Lebanon

Libya Mali

Mauritania Morocco

Niger OPT

Senegal Sudan

Syria Tunisia

Australia, USA Canada, New Zeland

ARAB GULF

Africa

EU

(27)

• The focus on the labour migrants creates a distorted vision of the effect of the labour

migration policy on the integration of migrants and use of the welfare state

• And an impossible demand of efficiency by one single instrument.

(28)

(29)

Schengen area

(30)

• Equal rights to native citizens

• Access to welfare services

• In the UK this issue creates problems

Continental Europe is part of the Schengen Agreement which implies free mobility,

no visa nedeed to enter UK as EU Citizens.

(31)

Population 65+ / 20-65

Alessandra Venturini, University of Turin, MPC, Florence

T.wai-CICIR Workshop agenda October 19-2015

The future of European Migration:

Aging, Channel of entrance and Welfare

• Europe is aging

• Composition

• Increasing share of the elderly

•

•

Also China is aging rapidly

The demand for care services will increase

and the demand of care givers in the public, private and family sectors according to the type of welfare state model prevailing in the economy will increase .

Foreign workers medium and low skilled Temporary or permanent

Not only young (Ukrainen migrants in Italy average age 55)

.

Europe is aging

• Size

• The European Labour force (age 15-59) is 313 million in 2010 while without migration in 2050 will be 246 million or with similar migration inflows 299 million.

• The stock of EU27 working population is reducing by 9.5%

every 10 years or 4.5% if the inflows continue

• This evolution of the native population needs migrants

• as future EU citizens and thus

• a new vision of the integration policy .

• Aging of skills

• With the extension of working life workers has longer professional life Human Capital Theory

• the research has shown a very strong young age dividend, both among foreigners, expecially among the high educated (MPC, Venturini, Fassio, Montobbio 2015)

• Thus Europe needs also highly skilled permanent migrants

for innovation

• Multi level governance of migration

• Europe

• National legislation

• Regional or local legislation

• Family reunification directive

• Refugees directive

• European preference

• Global migration approach

• Blue Card

• Circular Migration

• Neibourhood Policy

• Partnership agreements

European Migration policy

Different doors of entrance Different legislations

• Family reunification 50%

• Labour 30%

• Refugees 20%

Back door

3-The Neighbor countries have different attractors

• The focus on the labour migrants creates a distorted vision of the effect of the labour

migration policy on the integration of migrants and use of the welfare state

• And an impossible demand of efficiency by one single instrument.

Schengen area

• Equal rights to native citizens

• Access to welfare services

• In the UK this issue creates problems

Continental Europe is part of the Schengen Agreement which implies free mobility,

no visa nedeed to enter UK as EU Citizens.

• Very little attention has been devoted to the demographic effect of migration

• The Commission should push for more data on migrants by reason of entrance and more

research on the transition to work of the foreigners.

Conclusion