Global terrorism trends

Figure V-1 shows how a number of key terrorism-related variables have evolved over time. At the beginning of the observation period, the number of terror attacks appeared to be rather low but increased until the mid-1980s and remained at a relatively stable level until the mid-1990s.

The end of the 20^th century and the beginning of the 21th century were notable for a comparatively low level of terrorism before the number of attacks increased after 2005 and especially from 2012 onwards.

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Figure V-1 Global counts of terror attacks, terror-related deaths, and the deaths per attack ratio (1970-2014)

Elaboration by the author; Data source: UMD-START/GTD

During most years, roughly half of the attacks contained in the GTD involved the deaths of either perpetrators or victims (deadly attacks). The relationship between the number of deaths and number of attacks is best described in terms of a ‘deaths per attack ratio’. Figure V-1 shows that this ratio changed over time. It peaked for the first time during the first half of the 1980s and later peaked several times between 1998 and 2007 before leveling out again.

Figure V-2 below shows that victims of terrorism (both targeted or incidental victims) accounted for the majority of deaths caused by terror attacks. This number also included members of security forces that died while responding to terror attacks. The count of killed terrorists, on the other hand, has long remained comparatively low. This also became apparent when dividing the number of killed terrorists by the number of victims killed during terror attacks in any given year. The highest share of killed terrorists had initially been reached in 1975, before the number declined and remained comparatively low for more than two decades before rising again towards the end of the 1990s.

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Figure V-2 Global counts of victims/terrorists killed in attacks and percentages of killed terrorist per killed victims (1970-2014)

Elaboration by the author; Data source: UMD-START/GTD

Beginning in 2010, higher increases in the number of terrorists killed during attacks occurred.

In 2014, the most recent year under observation, the number of terrorist killed totaled roughly one third of the number of victims killed. This amounted to more than 10,000 killed terrorists and more than 30,000 victims killed.

Increases in the numbers of killed terrorists were largely a reflection of the ongoing conflicts in Western and Southern Asia (Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan). Depending on the context, such attacks may resemble military conflict rather than conventional terror attacks, including, for example, prolonged attacks and combat with security forces. Increases in the numbers of killed terrorists should therefore not be confounded with increases in suicide attacks. Looking at the past decade, the number of suicide attacks actually declined while the number of killed attackers increased. A suicide attack is not so much characterized by the willingness of the attacker to be killed or to commit suicide during or after the attack, but by the extent to which the actual death of an attacker is instrumental to an efficacious terror attack. That is to say that the suicide of the attacker is part of the attack plot or modus operandi (cf. Atran 2003; Hoffman and McCormick 2004; Pape 2005).

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Figure V-3 Percentages of international attacks, extended attacks and suicide attacks (1970-2014)

Elaboration by the author; Data source: UMD-START/GTD

Figure V-3 reveals that the percentage of suicide attacks among all attacks was generally low.

The highest shares were reached in 2005 and 2007 at roughly 11 percent. Looking at the overall period of observation, Figure V-3 also shows that suicide attacks were extremely rare before the second half of the 1990s.

Another characteristic depicted in Figure V-3 was the degree to which the attack could be considered international. Internationality as measured in the GTD exhibited several dimensions. These included, for example, the status of attackers or targeted victims as foreigners in the country where the attack occurred. Logistical aspects were also included, for example whether the attack was plotted or supported from outside, i.e. whether persons behind the attack were based in another country. Figure V-3 shows that the percentage of international terror attacks was rather high to begin with and continued to decline over time. Their share peaked in 1972 and declined until the end of the 1980s while the overall number of terror attacks increased during the same period.

Changes in internationality were in fact caused by overall changes in the regional composition of terror attacks. Much like previously discussed in regard to the homicide rates, aggregated depictions of trends in terrorism tend to mask the often heterogeneous and somewhat opposing developments in different parts of the world. Figure V-4 shows a regional breakup of deaths

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caused by terror attacks and reveals that up until the late 1970s, most deaths contained in the GTD occurred in Europe. Within Europe, in turn, most killings were in fact committed by different factions of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) in the UK, hence the high percentage of international terror attacks.

Figure V-4 Clustered counts of terror-related deaths in different world regions (1970-2014)

Elaboration by the author; Data source: UMD-START/GTD

Figure V-4 also reveals that the increase in the number of deaths caused by terror attacks beginning in the second half of the 1970s was attributable to regions other than Europe. This especially regards the Americas and to a lesser degree Asia. The sharp increase in the Americas was due to conflicts that arose in Central America. These conflicts were tightly interwoven across several neighboring countries and strongly driven by the late Cold War. Especially the U.S. were heavily involved behind the scenes. The U.S. strategy has been studied as a form of state crime, for example for Nicaragua (Rothe 2009). However, many of the corresponding terror attacks, were domestic. The same goes for the increases in numbers of terror attacks beginning in the mid-2000s. Figure V-4 indicates a steep rise in the number of deaths caused by terror attacks around that time that was attributable to Asia. As of 2011, this rise gained momentum again, and Africa exhibited a strong increase as well. As previously mentioned, the increases in Asia were mostly attributable to Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Also in Europe, a comparatively strong rise in the number deaths caused by terror attacks became apparent. This was attributable to the Ukraine crisis. The surrounding conflicts in any of the

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aforementioned countries exhibit heavy involvement of international stakeholders. Almost all of the corresponding terror attacks, however, were coded as domestic in the GTD.

While the number of deaths caused by terror attacks appeared to develop rather dynamically in some regions—namely in Africa, the Americas and Asia—Europe and Oceania exhibited a comparatively flat and stable trend line. This does not mean, however, that the number of terror attacks in both regions would not have developed dynamicly over time. It is merely that the respective changes in the number of terror attacks are not recognizable in Figure V-4 because their overall counts were much lower than in the other world regions.

V.1.2. Disaggregated terrorism trends in selected countries with low and high exposure to