V.1. Global and regional trends in terrorism (1970-2014)
V.1.5. Terrorism trends in Asia
CHAPTER V. The effects of terrorism on homicide 114
Table V-6 Top 5 country-year observations of terrorism in the Americas (number of victims killed)
Country Year Number of attacks Victims killed Terrorism mortality rate
Nicaragua 1984 302 3,617 99.94
Nicaragua 1983 299 3,277 92.89
U.S. 2001 41 2,984 1.04
Peru 1984 592 2,444 12.80
El Salvador 1980 710 2,368 51.73
The impact of the September 11th attacks has been discussed elsewhere. Just to highlight the scaling effects, it shall be remembered that when comparing the counts of deaths caused by terror attacks and also the terrorism mortality rates among selected OECD countries (Figure V-5 and Figure V-7), the impact of the September 11th attacks stretched the display range. This scaled down the trend line for all other countries so that many of the dynamics in the development of the terrorism counts and rates remained invisible. When comparing the U.S.
rates with the rates of other selected American countries, however, the effect of the September 11th attacks was hardly visible (Figure V-12).
V.1. Global and regional trends in terrorism (1970-2014) 115
world regions most Asian countries did not suffer terror-related deaths or attacks in most years.
Again, this made for a strong positive skew in the distribution.
Figure V-13 shows how the counts of terror attacks and deaths caused by these attacks evolved over time. The counts started out low at the beginning of the observation period and grew rather slowly and steadily to reach a preliminary maximum in 1992. The period from the mid-1990s to the mid-200s was characterized by a relative drop while the death toll began to rise again in 2004. All-time maximums were eventually reached in 2006 and 2007, and again for each of the three most recent observations. As previously discussed, this is due to conflicts that arose in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Also, Pakistan showed exceptionally high counts.
Figure V-13 Clustered counts of terror attacks, terror-related deaths, and the deaths per attack ratio in Asia (1970-2014)
Elaboration by the author; Data source: UMD-START/GTD
The deaths per attack ratio in Asia developed comparatively stable throughout the observation period. As opposed to Europe and the Americas whose distributions showed out-of-the-ordinary peaks for 2004 and 2001 respectively, no major deflections became apparent for any single year. The spikes in Europe and the Americas were caused by single attacks with unusually high numbers of victims. The influence of rare but impactful events in Asia, on the other hand, is most likely restricted by overall higher counts of attacks and deaths.
Figure V-14 shows how the disaggregated terrorism mortality rate for selected Asian countries developed over time. In order to not overstretch the display range, countries with major conflict
CHAPTER V. The effects of terrorism on homicide 116
zones (e.g. Iraq, Syria) were not included in the figure. Among the countries presented, Israel showed the highest terrorism mortality rate. This regarded both the number of years that the rate ranked first as well as the maximum value attained by any of the observed countries during the observation period.
Figure V-14 Terrorism mortality rate (per 100,000 inh.) in selected Asian countries (1970-2014)
Elaboration by the author; Data source: UMD-START/GTD
Terrorism in Israel is fundamentally linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Ganor 2015).
Violence between Jews and Arabs erupted as early as 1920. The conflict strengthened with the founding of the state of Israel in 1948 which caused a number of wars between Israel and Arab countries throughout the second half of the 20th century (Bregman 2016). Palestinian nationalist organizations, on the other hand, resorted to terrorism and political violence. The most lethal attack occurred in 1978, causing 42 deaths. It was committed by a Fatah commando who attacked a bus on a coastal highway near Tel Aviv. Due to Israel’s comparatively small population, single terror attacks had indeed a high impact as the spike in the in the terrorism mortality rate for Israel 1978 illustrates (see Figure V-14). The highest deflection, however, occurred in 2002 right in the midst of the 2nd Intifada. There were alone 13 attacks that accounted for more than 10 victims. All of these attacks were bombings aimed at civilians, most of them being carried out by suicide bombers linked to the Hamas and the Al-Aqsa Brigade (Moghadam 2003).
V.1. Global and regional trends in terrorism (1970-2014) 117
Besides Israel, Figure V-14 exhibits also higher rates of terrorism mortality in Iran, the Philippines and Thailand. Many of the terror-related deaths in Iran occurred in 1978, the very year of the Iranian revolution (cf. Zabih 1982). The rate was strongly influenced by an attack on a cinema complex carried out by mujahedeen fighters which cost 422 lives. Also in regard to the spike in 1981, one event was particularly impactful, namely the bombing of the Islamic Republican Party’s headquarters. The authors of the attack remained long unknown, but one perpetrator linked to the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO), an “exiled Iranian dissident cult group living in Iraq” that cooperated with Saddam Hussein in the context of the Iran-Iraq War (Goulka et al. 2009, 14), was eventually arrested in Albania in 2016.22
The rise in terror attacks in the Philippines, starting at the beginning of the mid-1980s and leveling out towards the mid-1990s, were carried out mostly by the New People's Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (Weinberg 1991, 436). While the NPA is still active as of today, the majority of attacks since the mid-1990s were mostly carried out by Islamic separatists belonging to the Moro ethnicity, and the Jihadist militant group Abu Sayyaf which in 2014 declared a new Philippines Province of the Islamic State (Abuza 2015).
Eventually, as in the Philippines, much of the terrorist violence in Thailand is linked to Islamic separatist groups (Chongkittavorn 2004). These groups are based in the southernmost provinces of Thailand where Muslims account for up to 30 percent of the total population.
Table V-8 shows the top five observations on terrorism in Asia aggregated at level of country-year, sorted by the absolute count of victims killed in terror attacks. None of the selected Asian countries discussed above appear on the chart.
Table V-8 Top 5 country-year observations of terrorism in Asia (number of victims killed)
Country Year Number of attacks Victims killed Terrorism mortality rate
Iraq 2014 3,925 11,400 32.32
Iraq 2015 2,743 6,597 18.11
Iraq 2013 2,849 6,556 19.22
Iraq 2007 1,047 6,292 22.14
Iraq 2006 837 4,467 16.12
22 Press TV (Iran): “Bomber linked to 1981 Tehran attack arrested in Albania: Iran police”.
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/05/14/465629/iran-mko-irp-arrested-interpol, consulted on 12/05/2017
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The order of the list was in fact overshadowed by the intensity of the previously discussed terrorist violence in Iraq. As becomes apparent, not even Afghanistan, Syria or Pakistan made it onto the list. The sequence changed, however, when sorted by the terrorism mortality rate.
The top three observations for Iraq remained, but the second and third spot were occupied by observations from Lebanon in 1985 and 1983. The observations fall into the time of the Lebanon war (1982-1985) that was fought between Israel and Christian Lebanese militias on one side, and a variety of Arab groups on the other (Bregman 2016, 152). Most terror attacks in this context were carried out against Israeli military targets, but also against civilians and diplomats.
Table V-9 Top 5 country-year observations of terrorism in Asia (terrorism mortality rate)
Country Year Number of attacks Victims killed Terrorism mortality rate
Iraq 2014 3,925 11,400 32.32
Lebanon 1985 95 643 24.02
Lebanon 1983 234 613 23.12
Iraq 2007 1,047 6,292 22.14
Iraq 2013 2,849 6,556 19.22