Monetary Politics in a Monetary Union: A Note on Common Agency with Rational Expectations
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(2) EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES. Monetary Politics in a Monetary Union: A Note on Common Agency with Rational Expectations MICHELE RUTA. EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2007/21.
(3) This text may be downloaded only for personal research purposes. Additional reproduction for other purposes, whether in hard copies or electronically, requires the consent of the author(s), editor(s). Requests should be addressed directly to the author(s). If cited or quoted, reference should be made to the full name of the author(s), editor(s), the title, the working paper, or other series, the year and the publisher. The author(s)/editor(s) should inform the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the EUI if the paper will be published elsewhere and also take responsibility for any consequential obligation(s).. ISSN 1028-3625. © 2007 Michele Ruta Printed in Italy European University Institute Badia Fiesolana I – 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ http://cadmus.eui.eu.
(4) Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS), directed by Stefano Bartolini since September 2006, is home to a large post-doctoral programme. Created in 1992, it aims to develop inter-disciplinary and comparative research and to promote work on the major issues facing the process of integration and European society. The Centre hosts major research programmes and projects, and a range of working groups and ad hoc initiatives. The research agenda is organised around a set of core themes and is continuously evolving, reflecting the changing agenda of European integration and the expanding membership of the European Union. Details of this and the other research of the Centre can be found on: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Research/ Research publications take the form of Working Papers, Policy Papers, Distinguished Lectures and books. Most of these are also available on the RSCAS website: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/Publications/ The EUI and the RSCAS are not responsible for the opinion expressed by the author(s)..
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(6) Abstract Is the politicisation of monetary policy in a currency union desirable? This paper shows that in a setting where political influence by national governments is modeled as a common agency game with rational expectations, the answer to this question crucially depends on whether the common central bank can commit to follow its policy.. Keywords Common Agency, Political Pressures, European Monetary Union JEL Classifications F33, E58, D78.
(7) Acknowledgements I would like to thank Alessandra Casella, Giancarlo Corsetti, Rick van der Ploeg, Helen Wallace and seminar participants at the EUI for comments on a previous version of this paper. Errors are only my responsibility..
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(31). /<2 ,/:A6 4=@ AC@D3GA =4 B63 :/@53 :7B3@/BC@3 =< 7<AB7BCB7=<A /<2 @3>CB/B7=< 7< ;=<3B/@G >=:71G. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta. 3.
(32) Michele Ruta. . ! # # # !. 1=<A723@ / ;=<3B/@G 1=<AB7BCB7=< 4=@ / 1C@@3<1G C<7=< B6/B /::=EA >=:7B717/<A B= 7<JC3<13 B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 ;=23: B63 @3:/B7=<A67> 03BE33< B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 /<2 </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<BA /A / 1=;;=< /53<1G 5/;3 3@<637; /<2 ,67<AB=< /<2 @=AA;/< /<2 3:> ;/< )63 16=A3< >=:71G 7A B63 $/A6 3?C7:70@7C; =4 / 5/;3 B6/B 7<D=:D3A B63 </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<BA /<2 B63 ;=<3B/@G /CB6=@7BG )63 B7;7<5 =4 B63 5/;3 7A /A 4=::=EA B B63 0357<<7<5 =4 B63 >3@7=2 >=:7B717/<A 3F3@B 7<JC3<13 =< B63 ;=<3B/@G /CB6=@7BG B / A31=<2 AB/53 B63 A6=19 7A @3/:7H32 /<2 B63 13<B@/: 0/<9 16==A3A B63 >=:71G B/97<5 7<B= /11=C<B </B7=</: >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A =@;/::G >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A /@3 @3>@3A3<B32 0G 1=<B@/1BA B6/B B63 >@7<17>/:A =N3@ B= B63 /53<B )63A3 7<13<B7D3 A163;3A /@3 07<27<5 1=;;7B;3<BA B= 23:7D3@ / B@/<A43@ ;=<3B/@G =@ <=< ;=<3B/@G B= B63 /53<B E63< B63 >=:71G 7A 16=A3< /<2 A6=C:2 03 7<B3@>@3B32 /A A>3174G7<5 B63 7<B3<A7BG =4 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A 0G 5=D3@<;3<BA 1=<B7<53<B =< B63 >=:71G /<2 B63 A6=19 )63 13<B@/: 0/<9KA =0831B7D3 4C<1B7=< 7A =4 B63 @=AA;/< /<2 3:>;/< 4=@; /<2 7A 57D3< 0G . . . . . . . . )67A 4C<1B7=< /AAC;3A B6/B B63 /53<B 1/@3A /0=CB 0=B6 B63 /55@35/B3 E3:4/@3 =4 7<27D72C/:A :7D7<5 7< ;3;03@ 1=C<B@73A =4 B63 ;=<3B/@G C<7=< /<2 /0=CB >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A 73 B63 1=<B@/1BA =N3@32 0G 5=D3@<;3<BA ,3 1/< B67<9 =4 /A 1/>BC@7<5 A=;3 3:3;3<BA =4 B63 7<AB7BCB7=</: 4@/;3E=@9 B63 ;=<3B/@G 1=<AB7BCB7=< =4 B63 ;=<3B/@G C<7=< E63@3 /<2 1=@@3A>=<2 B= B63 1/A3 =4 "# /<2 ( $# ' "$"" @3A>31B7D3:G =C<B@G A7H3 27@31B:G 3<B3@A B63 =0831B7D3 4C<1B7=< =4 B63 ;=<3B/@G /CB6=@7BG B6@=C56 A=17/: E3:4/@3 )63 >/@/;3B3@ @3>@3A3<BA B63 27@31B 7<JC3<13 =< B63 /53<B =4 >@7<17>/: E6716 1/< 03 :/@53@ A;/::3@ =@ 3?C/: B= E3 7<B3@>@3B /A 1=C<B@GA>317I1 >=:7B71/: =@ :=00G7<5 /07:7BG. . ! ! " . 7<D3AB75/B3 B63 3N31BA =4 >=:7B717A/B7=< =4 ;=<3B/@G >=:71G E63< B63 13<B@/: 0/<9 1/< 1=;;7B B= 7BA >=:7173A < B67A 1=<B3FB </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<BA 3F3@B >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A B= 7<JC3<13 B63 @C:3 B6/B . #1/::C; 4/;3=CA:G <=B7132 B6/B 5=D3@<;3<BA 1/< 3F >=AB @3</53 =< B637@ 1=<B@/1BA /< /@5C;3<B =4B3< CA32 /5/7<AB >=:7B717A/B7=< =4 ;=<3B/@G >=:71G 3@3 A6=E B6/B 7< / ;=<3B/@G C<7=< </B7=</: >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A 6/D3 <35/B7D3 3N31BA )" 5=D3@<;3<BA 2= <=B 16/<53 B63 1=<B@/1BA 3F >=AB )63 16=713 =4 B67A A3>/@/0:3 4C<1B7=</: 4=@; 7A ;=AB:G 4=@ /</:GB71/: 1=<D3<73<13 /A 7B A7;>:7I3A B63 /53<BKA >/@B717>/B7=< 1=<AB@/7<B A33 B63 >>3<27F 4=@ 23B/7:A. 4. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta.
(33) Monetary Politics in a Monetary Union: A Note on Common Agency with Rational Expectations. B63 1=;;=< ;=<3B/@G /CB6=@7BG /2=>BA )63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 16==A3A >=:71G B= ;/F7;7H3 B63 3F>31B32 D/:C3 =4 7BA =0831B7D3 4C<1B7=< 3?C/B7=< B/97<5 7<B= /11=C<B B6/B 3F>31B/B7=<A /@3 4=@;32 @/B7=</::G 1=<27B7=< /<2 B63 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A =4 </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<BA )63 3?C7:70@7C; 7A 16/@/1B3@7H32 0G B63 4=::=E7<5 BE= 3F>@3AA7=<A B6/B 7;>:717B:G 23I<3 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A /<2 B63 >=:71G C<23@ 1=;;7B;3<B. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . < B63 I@AB =4 B63A3 1=<27B7=<A 3?C7:70@7C; >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A B@/<A43@ A1632C:3A @3J31B B63 >@343@3<13A =4 1=C<B@G 7< B3@;A =4 B63 =>B7;/: 1=;;7B;3<B >=:71G @C:3 A33 3?C/B7=<
(34) $=B3 B6/B >@7<17>/:A /:A= B/93 7<B= /11=C<B 6=E / 16/<53 7< 3F>31B/B7=<A E7:: /N31B B637@ >/G=N A E3:: 27A1CAA32 7< !
(35). B63A3 1=<B@/1BA 53<3@/:7H3 B63 B@CB64C: =@ 1=;>3<A/B7<5 3?C7:70@7C; A1632C:3A =4 @=AA;/< /<2 3:>;/< 0G 1/>BC@7<5 B63 /227B7=</: 3N31B =4 B63 @/B7=</: 3F>31B/B7=<A 1=<AB@/7<B @=; B63 A31=<2 1=<27B7=< B63 3?C7:70@7C; >=:71G C<23@ 1=;;7B;3<B 7A / E3756B32 /D3@/53 =4 B63 >@343@@32 >=:71G @C:3A =4 B63 >@7<17>/:A E63@3 B63 E3756BA 23>3<2 =< B63 @3:/B7D3 A7H3 /<2 >=:7B71/: /07:7BG =4 3/16 1=C<B@G ,63< B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 27A>=A3A =4 / 1=;;7B;3<B B316<=:=5G 7B 1/< @3/16 B63 I@AB 03AB >=:71G 4=@ B63 ;=<3B/@G C<7=< )63 =<:G @=:3 =4 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A 7A B63@34=@3 B= 16/<53 B63 E3756BA 7< B63 1=;;=< /53<BKA =0831B7D3 4C<1B7=< /A 7< AB/<2/@2 ;C:B7>:3/53<1G >@=0:3;A 3@<637; /<2 ,67<AB=< /<2 @=AA;/< /<2 3:>;/< )63 7<BC7B7=< 7A B6/B 27N3@3<B:G 4@=; !
(36). /:: @3:3D/<B 2317A7=<A >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A /<2 B63 >=:71G @C:3 /@3 B/93< 034=@3 B63 @3/:7H/B7=< =4 B63 A6=19 4B3@ B63 A6=19 7A @3/:7H32 B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 231723A ;=<3B/@G >=:71G /11=@27<5 B= B63 @C:3 E6716 7A 1=;;7BB32 B= 4=::=E =<A723@ B63 3N31BA =4 /::=E7<5 </B7=</: >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A =< B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 =@ B63 3?C7:70@7C; >=:71G 1=<27B7=< 1=@@3A>=<2A B= B63 =>B7;/: >=:71G @C:3 4=@ B63 1C@@3<1G C<7=< 1=<27B7=< E63@3 B63 E3756BA 23>3<2 =<:G =< B63 A7H3 =4 B63 ;3;03@ AB/B3A #=@3=D3@ <= @3A=C@13A /@3 E/AB32 7< :=00G7<5 B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 =@ 3?C/B7=< A6=EA B6/B ;=@3 7<JC3<B7/: 1=C<B@73A B6=A3 E7B6 :/@53@ 4=@ 57D3< /@3 /0:3 B= 27AB=@B B63 1=;;=< ;=<3B/@G >=:71G B=E/@2A E6/B 7A 03AB 4=@ B637@ 17B7H3<A $=B3 B6/B 3D3< 7< B63 A>317/: 1/A3 7< E6716 /::=E7<5 B63 >=:7B717A/B7=< =4 ;=<3B/@G >=:71G 1=;3A /B / 1=AB < B63 ;=23: B67A 1=AB 7A 1/>BC@32 0G B63 1=<B@/1BA 7;>:717B:G 23B3@;7<32 0G 1=<27B7=< /:: 5=D3@<;3<BA 3<2 C> E/AB7<5 @3A=C@13A 7< B63 /BB3;>B B= 7<JC3<13 B63 >=:71G @C:3 16=A3< 0G B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 < 3?C7:70@7C; >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A =NA3B 3/16 =B63@ /<2 /@3 <=B 3N31B7D3 0CB /@3 1=AB:G 4=@ 5=D3@<;3<BA :: ;3;03@A =4 . )63 23@7D/B7=<A /@3 7< B63 B316<71/: >>3<27F. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta. 5.
(37) Michele Ruta. B63 C<7=< E=C:2 03<3IB 74 B63 >=AA707:7BG B= 7<JC3<13 B63 ;=<3B/@G /CB6=@7BG E3@3 @3;=D32 7< B63 I@AB >:/13. . ! . )67A >/>3@ ABC273A B63 3N31BA =4 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A 0G </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<BA =< B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 =4 / ;=<3B/@G C<7=< &=:7B71/: 7<JC3<13 7A ;=23:32 /A / 1=;;=< /53<1G 5/;3 E7B6 @/B7=</: 3F>31B/B7=<A /:=<5 B63 :7<3A =4 !
(38). ,63< B63 1=;;=< /53<B 1/< 1=;;7B B= 7BA >=:71G B63 ;C:B7>:3/53<1G 5/;3 E7B6 @/B7=</: 3F>31B/B7=<A 23:7D3@A B63 A/;3 @3AC:B /A 7< AB/<2/@2 1=;;=< /53<1G 5/;3A 3@<637; /<2 ,67<AB=< /<2 @=AA;/< /<2 3:>;/< E63@3 B63 =<:G 3N31B =4 B@/<A43@ A163;3A 7A B= 27AB=@B B63 >=:71G 7< 4/D=@ =4 ;=@3 7<JC3<B7/: >@7<17>/:A )63 ;=23: B63@34=@3 A6=EA B6/B >=:7B717A/B7=< =4 ;=<3B/@G >=:71G 7< / 1C@@3<1G C<7=< 7A <3D3@ 03<3I17/: 74 B63 ;=<3B/@G /CB6=@7BG 27A>=A3A =4 / 1=;;7B;3<B B316<=:=5G. 6. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta.
(39) Monetary Politics in a Monetary Union: A Note on Common Agency with Rational Expectations. - . :3A7</ /<2 ' ! /@@=
(40).
(41) C@@3<1G *<7=<A (%'% ,
(42) #(%" # #"#! & -
(43) . 3@<637; /<2 # ,67<AB=< #3<C C1B7=<A '3A=C@13 ::=1/B7=< /<2 1= <=;71 <JC3<13 (%'% ,
(44) #(%" # #"#! & - . =@A3BB7
(45). #=<3B/@G &=:71G 7< 3B3@=53<=CA C@@3<1G *<7=<A '3J31B7=<A /A32 =< / #71@=4=C<232 #=23: =4 %>B7;C; C@@3<1G @3/A ;7;3= * -. 7F7B /<2 !3<A3<
(46). =;;=< 53<1G E7B6 '/B7=</: F>31B/B7=<A )63=@G /<2 >>:71/B7=< B= / #=<3B/@G *<7=< #"#!
(47) #(%" -. 7</<17/: )7;3A 27B=@7/: #/97<5 B63 &/@B =4 B63 (=:CB7=< "" !& !C:G
(48). -. @=AA;/< /<2 3:>;/< &@=B31B7=< 4=@ (/:3 !% " #"#! ) * -. #1/::C; ) )E= /::/173A =<13@<7<5 3<B@/: /<9 <23>3<23<13 !% ". #"#! ) * $%& " %# " &
(49)
(50) -. #C<16/C ,
(51). C@=>3KA *<63/:B6G 7A1/: %0A3AA7=< "" !& !C:G
(52). -. &3@AA=< ) /<2 )/03::7<7
(53). # ' #"#! & +$ " " #"#! # , # ) &@3AA /;0@7253 - . ,/:A6 %>B7;/: =<B@/1BA 4=@ 3<B@/: /<93@A !% " #"#! ) * - . ,/:A6 #"'%, #%, " # , # ) &@3AA /;0@7253. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta. 7.
(54) Michele Ruta. >>3<27F )63 5/;3 7A A=:D32 0/19E/@2 B B63 :/AB AB/53 B63 /53<B ;/F7;7H3A B63 3F>31B32 D/:C3 =4 B63 =0831B7D3 4C<1B7=< B/97<5 7<B= /11=C<B B6/B 3F>31B/B7=<A /@3 4=@;32 @/B7=</::G 73 /11=@2 7<5 B= 1=<27B7=< /<2 4=@ 57D3< >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A ,3 1/< E@7B3 B63 "/5@/<57/< =4 B63 /53<B ;/F7;7H/B7=< >@=0:3; /A
(55) =;07<7<5 B63 I@AB =@23@ 1=<27B7=<A =4 B67A >@=0:3; E3 I<2 B63 >=:71G @C:3 B6/B B63 /53<B 16==A3A 3F /<B3 7A 7;>:717B:G 23B3@;7<32 0G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,3 1/< @3/@@/<53 B67A :/AB 1=<27B7=< /A 4=::=EA E6716 E7:: 03 CA34C: :/B3@ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E63@3 E3 CA32 B63 4/1B B6/B >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A =< B63 13<B@/: 0/<9 B/93 B63 4=@; 34=@3 =0A3@D7<5 B63 A6=19 3/16 </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<B 16==A3A >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A B= ;/F7;7H3 B63 3F>31B32 D/:C3 =4 E3:4/@3 7< 1=C<B@G =@;/::G 5=D3@<;3<B KA 16=713 D/@7/0:3A /@3 B63 4C<1B7=<A /<2 /<2 B63 5=D3@<;3<B ;/F7;7H3A AC0831B B= A3D3@/: 1=<AB@/7<BA 7@AB >@7<17>/:A @31=5<7H3 B6/B B63 /53<B E7:: A3B B63 >=:71G /11=@27<5 B= B67A 7A 93>B 7;>:717B 7< B63 "/5@/<57/< 03:=E (31=<2 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3A <332 B= A/B7A4G / >/@B717>/B7=< 1=<AB@/7<B 4=@ B63 /53<B =4 B63 4=@; E63@3 7A /< =CBA723 =>>=@BC<7BG CB7:7BG 73 B63 :3D3: =4 CB7:7BG B6/B B63 13<B@/: 0/<93@ 53BA 7< B63 /0A3<13 =4 >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3 0G </B7=</: 5=D3@<;3<BA &@7<17>/:A /:A= @31=5<7H3 B6/B 3F>31B/B7=<A E7:: 03 4=@;32 @/B7=</::G ,3 @35/@2 3/16 >@7<17>/: /A 74 7B 27@31B:G 16==A3A B63 3F>31B/B7=< =4 AC0831B B= B63 @/B7=</:7BG 1=<AB@/7<B =<A723@ B63 2317A7=< >@=0:3; =4 5=D3@<;3<B B63 "/5@/<57/< E63@3 E3 =;7B 4C<1B7=< /@ 5C;3<BA 4=@ 0@3D7BG 7A . .
(56) . . . . . . . . . E63@3 /<2 /@3 B63 "/5@/<53 ;C:B7>:73@A =< B63 @/B7=</:7BG 1=<AB@/7<B /<2 =< B63 >/@B717>/B7=< 1=<AB@/7<B =4 B63 1=;;=< /53<B. 8. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta.
(57) Monetary Politics in a Monetary Union: A Note on Common Agency with Rational Expectations. (7;>:74G B63 "/5@/<57/< <=B7<5 B6/B 7B 23>3<2A =<:G =< B63 3F>31B/B7=< /<2 <=B 27@31B:G =< B63 4C<1B7=< @=; B63 I@AB =@23@ 1=<27B7=< E7B6 @3A>31B B= B67A E3 I<2 B6/B B63 "/5@/<53 ;C:B7>:73@ =< B63 /53<BKA >/@B717>/B7=< 1=<AB@/7<B 7A *A7<5 B67A E3 1/< @3E@7B3 B63 "/5@/<57/< =4 5=D3@<;3<B /A. .
(58) . . . . $=E 1=<A723@ B63 3N31B =4 / 16/<53 =4 =< B67A "/5@/<57/< /<2 CA3 1=<27B7=< B= A7;>:74G 7B E3 53B
(59) . . . . . . . . )67A 7;>:73A B6/B B63 =>B7;/: 16=713 =4 5=D3@<;3<B KA >=:7B71/: >@3AAC@3 =< B63 1=;;=< 13<B@/: 0/<9 <332A B= A/B7A4G . . . . . . . .
(60) . . $=B3 B6/B E3 1/< I<2 B63 "/5@/<53 ;C:B7>:73@ 4@=; B63 I@AB =@23@ 1=<27B7=< 4=@ B63 16=713 =4 .
(61) . . . . . . . . . . .
(62) . (C0AB7BCB7<5 B63 "/5@/<53 ;C:B7>:73@ 7<B= 1=<27B7=<
(63) /<2 @3/@@/<57<5 E3 53B 1=<27B7=< 7< B63 ;/7< B3FB )63 3?C7:70@7C; >=:71G <332A B= 03 1=<A7AB3<B E7B6 B63 ;/F7;7H/B7=< >@=0:3; =4 B63 /53<B ,3 B63@34=@3 AC0AB7BCB3 B63 3F>@3AA7=< B6/B 7;>:717B:G 23I<3A B63 =>B7;/: 1=<B@/1B =4 >@7<17>/: 7<B= 1=<27B7=< #=@3=D3@ E3 1/< 3:7;7</B3 B63 "/5@/<53 ;C:B7>:73@ 0G CA7<5 B63 I@AB =@23@ 1=<27B7=<A 4=@ B63 16=713 =4 )67A :3/2A B= 1=<27B7=< 7< B63 ;/7< B3FB. EUI-WP RSCAS 2007/21 © Michele Ruta. 9.
(64) Michele Ruta Department of Economics European University Institute Via della Piazzuola 43 50133 Florence, Italy Email: michele.ruta@eui.eu.
(65)
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