• Non ci sono risultati.

Euro exchange rates : what can be expected in terms of volatility?

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Condividi "Euro exchange rates : what can be expected in terms of volatility?"

Copied!
43
0
0

Testo completo

(1),N+, NWV,+5WAv W5AWANA, #,+A,A 6 ,W5. ,NW `Lh!?} @Tih , L bb%2f. ,hL , U@?}i +@|itG `@| @? i , TiU|i_ ? Aih4t Lu VL*@|*|)q wjNANi N|AN. #W 6W,5wc 5 #,W E6W.

(2) ** h}|t hitihi_ L T@h| Lu |t T@Tih 4@) Mi hiThL_Ui_ ? @?) uLh4 |L| Tih4ttL? Lu |i @|Lh. U bbb wiL?Lh L|?L h?|i_ ? W|@*) ? a?i bbb ,hLTi@? N?iht|) W?t|||i @_@ 6itL*@?@ WDffS 5@? #L4i?UL E6W W|@*).

(3) ,hL i U@?}i h@|itG @| U@? Mi i TiU|i_ ? |ih4t Lu L*@|*|)q wiL?Lh L|?L ,hLTi@? N?iht|) W?t|||i @)c bbb. Devwudfw Wklv sdshu glvfxvvhv vrph ri wkh lvvxhv uhodwhg wr wkh ghwhupl0 qdwlrq ri wkh ixwxuh ehkdylru ri hxur h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Lw frqvlghuv wkh lpsdfw ri Hxurshdq0zlgh surgxfwlylw| dqg yhorflw| glvwxu0 edqfhv rq csruwirolr* glyhuvlfdwlrq lq Hxursh/ xqghu d vlqjoh fxu0 uhqf|1 Wkh qhz fxuuhqf| pd| eh ohvv yrodwloh wkdq wkh suh0h{lvwlqj Hxurshdq fxuuhqflhv jlyhq wkdw wkh djjuhjdwh JGS jurzwk pd| eh pruh vwdeoh dqg pruh fruuhodwhg zlwk JGS jurzwk lq wkh XV dqg Mdsdq1 Krzhyhu/ dowkrxjk surgxfwlylw| wuhqgv duh qrw olnho| wr fkdqjh gudpdwlfdoo|/ wkh ehkdylru ri yhorflw| fdq fkdqjh vxe0 vwdqwldoo|/ gxulqj ru diwhu wkh fkdqjh lq uhjlph1 Wkh h{whqw wr zklfk wklv zloo eh uhohydqw zloo ghshqg rq wkh srolf| fkrlfhv ri wkh HFE/ vlqfh wkhuh duh vrph srolf| uxohv/ vxfk dv qrplqdo lq0 frph wdujhwlqj/ pruh dssursuldwh wkdq rwkhuv iru lqvxodwlqj wkh hfrqrp| iurp yhorflw| glvwxuedqfhv1.  L dp judwhixo wr p| vxshuylvru Plfkdho. Duwlv dqg wr Pdwwkhz Fdq}rqhul iru xvhixo frpphqwv dqg dgylfh1 Doo uhpdlqlqj plvwdnhv duh plqh1.

(4) . W?|hL_U|L?.  ?4Mih Lu _gihi?| t|_it @i @?@*)3i_ |i tti Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihLc |i ?i*) MLh? ,hLTi@? t?}*i Uhhi?U) W? |i tLh| |ih4 | t *!i*) |@| TLh|uL*L @_t|4i?|t ** Mh?} tL4i ?t|@M*|) |L |i t)t|i4 OLiihc @?L|ih 4TLh|@?| ^it|L? t i|ihc ? |i *L?}ih |ih4c ihL i U@?}i h@|it ** ThLi 4Lhi Lh *itt L*@|*i |@? |i i  U@?}i h@|it Lu |i Thii t|?} ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uit AL @?tih |t ^it|L? @h|? Ebb. M*_t @? @h}4i?| L? |i M@tt |@| |i ,N @hi@ ** Mi *@h}ih @?_ *itt LTi? |@? @?) ?__@* 4i4Mih t|@|ic @?_ UL?U*_it |@| |i M}}ih |i N?L?c |i 4Lhi t|@M*i |i ihL ** Mi ) ?it|}@|?} |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? t3i< @?_ L*@|*|)c @h|? €?_t @ 4Tt@Ti_ hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) @?_ UL?|h) t3i Ai hi@tL? t |@| ih) *@h}i UL?|hitc U @hi hi*@|i*) *itt LTi?c @i uiih ?Ui?|it |L ti i U@?}i h@|i TL*U) t|h@|i}U@**) |L t|@M*3i |i iUL?L4) L?|h@_U|?} |t @h}4i?|c Liihc ML| ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚ic L L? @?_ t@?6ihh)Ebb. @?_ Li?Ebb. h@tic ? |ih |iLhi|U@* 4L_i*tc |i TLttM*|) |@| @ TL*U) Lu Mi?}? ?i}*iU| 4@) Mi |i U@ti Lu @ hti ? i U@?}i h@|i ?t|@M*|) ? ,hLTic @u|ih ,N @ttL? @?_ Ah|i*MLL4 Ebb.c L? |i L|ih @?_c TL?| |L |i u@U| |@| @ Mi?}? ?i}*iU| @|||_i L? |i T@h| Lu |i ,hLTi@? 4L?i|@h) @|Lh|) 4@) ?L| Mi TLttM*i Ai) @h}i |@| |i ?Uih|@?|it |@| ** Mi u@Ui_ M) |i ,hLTi@? i?|h@* @?! E, @hi *!i*) |L uLhUi |i *@||ih |L @_LT| _t Uhi|L?@h) TL*Uitc hi*)?} L? @hLt iUL?L4U ?_U@|Lhtc L?i Lu U 4@) Mi |i 4@h!i| @*i Lu |i ihLc @? ?_U@|Lh |@| t }*) tM*i |L |i TM*U W? @__|L? |L |t @h}4i?|c | U@? @*tL Mi @__i_ |@| Thitthit uhL4 4i4Mih t|@|it uLh i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) 4i@thit 4@) @*tL @htic u |ih UL4Ti||i?itt t|@h|t ihL_?} ? tiih@* LUU@tL?t |hL}L| t|Lh)c *@h}i @?_ Tihtt|i?| U@?}it ? i U@?}i h@|it @i Mii? @UUL4T@?i_ M) t|hL?} TL*|U@* Thitthit uLh ThL|iU|L?t4 ? UL? |hit Lti UL4Ti||i TLt|L? @t Mii? ?i}@|i*) @giU|i_ EUk??L? .

(5) EbbS `| TL*U) ULLh_?@|L? Mi|ii? |i , @?_ |i 6,#c @t tL? @?_ Ah|i*MLL4 Ebb. it|4@|i |@| @ TL*U) |L@h_t i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) ** ?L| *i@_ |L t}?€U@?| U@?}it ? ?@|L? @h@M*|) OL iihc |L| tU ULLh_?@|L?c ?Uhi@ti_ L*@|*|) @}@?t| |i _L**@h 4@) T| Thitthi L? |i , |L ?|ihi?i @*L?i ? |i uLhi}? i U@?}i 4@h!i|c TLttM*) @4Tih?} |t Uhi_M*|) uLh €}|?} ?@|L? At TLt tM*|) 4@!it | 4TLh|@?| |L ?_iht|@?_ ?_ih @| UhU4t|@?Uit |i ihL U@? Mh?} 4Lhi L*@|*|) ?|L |i ?|ih?@|L?@* 4L?i|@h) t)t|i4 ** |i ihL L*@|*|) t|_it 4i?|L?i_ @MLi uLUt 4@?*) L? L |i hitTL?ti?itt Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i |L tLU!t 4@) U@?}i @u|ih |t ?|hL_U|L?c T@)?} *||*i @||i?|L? L? |i LUUhhi?Ui Lu |i tLU!t |i4 ti*it W?U*_?} 4Lhi _Lt)?Uh@|U iUL?L4it ? |i 4L?i|@h) ?L? ** Mi t4*@h |L _ihtu)?} @ TLh|uL*L @?_ ** |t _4?t |i tTiU€U ht! @ttLU@|i_ | |i iUL?L4) |@| ttit |i ?i Uhhi?U) VL*@|*|) 4@) _4?tc MiU@ti ,hL*@?_<t Mt?itt U)U*i ** Mi *itt L*@|*i @?_ 4Lhi ULhhi*@|i_ | |i U)U*it ? |i L|ih 4@Lh iUL?L4it At @ _iU*?i ? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) 4@) ?L| Mi @||hM|i_ |L |i ,<t @U|L?t Tih ti W? u@U|c |i , tL*_ |@!i |t @tTiU| ?|L UL?t_ ih@|L? i? _i€??} |t TL*Uitc t?Ui tL4i 4L?i|@h) TL*U) ULUit 4@) Mi 4Lhi @TThLTh@|i |@? L|iht uLh ?t*@|?} |i iUL?L4) uhL4 _it|@M*3?} ,N_i _t|hM@?Uit At T@Tih UL?t_iht |i 4T@U| Lu ,hLTi@?_i ThL_U||) @?_ i*LU|) _t|hM@?Uit L? TLh|uL*L _iht€U@|L?< ? ,hLTic ?_ih @ t? }*i Uhhi?U) AL L|ih hiUi?| t|_it |@| T@) 4Lhi @||i?|L? |L |i Mi @Lh Lu ,hL3L?i _t|hM@?Uit @hi +UU @?_ Wt@h_ EbbH @?_ ‚i?@tt) "‚ih‚i @?_ LL? EbbH Ai €ht| t|_) ?it|}@|it |i igiU|t Lu 4L?i |@h) ?L? L? i U@?}i h@|i @h@M*|) t?} @ |hiiUL?|h)c |hii}LL_c 4 PfNlqqrq. dujxhv wkdw _h{fkdqjh udwh yduldelolw| kdv d surshuw| wkdw surprwhv d jhqhudo ulvh ri wudgh eduulhuv% dqg lv uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh lqfuhdvhg xvh ri txrwdv dqg rwkhu pdunhw0vkdulqj vfkhphv vlqfh wkh plg 4<:3*v1 Uhfhqw frqwulexwlrqv vkrzlqj wkdw fxuuhqf| lqvwdelolw| fdq kdyh qhjdwlyh hhfwv rq frpshwlwlyhqhvv lqfoxgh Gl{lw+4<;<, dqg Nuxjpdq+4<;<d/4<;<e,1 Lq wkhvh sdshuv/ xqfhuwdlqw| lv frvwo| ehfdxvh lw ohdgv wr ghod|v lq _uhdo fkdqjhv lq wkh zruog hfrqrp| wkdw vkrxog eh phw e| lqyhvwphqw dqg glvlqyhvwphqw% +Nuxjpdq +4<;<e,/ s19<,1. 2.

(6) u@U|LhtTiU€U 4L_i* Lu |h@_i | @}i h}_|) W| tLt |@| |i hi* @|i @h@M*|) Lu |i ihL i U@?}i h@|it 4@) _iTi?_ L? |i hi*@|i t3it @?_ tTiU@*3@|L? T@||ih?t Lu ,N UL?|hit @?_ |i hi*@|i 4 TLh|@?Ui Lu _gihi?| tLU!t Ai t|_) _ii*LTi_ ? |i Thiti?| T@Tihc Liihc |hit |L |@!i ?|L @UUL?| @** |i _gihi?| tLU!t t4*|@?iLt*) @?_ |L UL?t_ih |i TLttM*|) Lu @ _iUhi@ti_ T@||ih? Lu tTiU@*3@|L? ? ,hLTic Lhc @| *i@t| Lu 4Lhi Mt?itt U)U*i ULhhi*@|L? Ai tiUL?_ t|_)c M) ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚i @?_ LL? EbbHc t @? i4 ThU@* @?@*)tt ihi t|LU@t|U t4*@|L?t @hi TihuLh4i_ L? @ t4T*i |hii UL?|h) 4@UhLiUL?L4U 4L_i* Lu |i N?|i_ 5|@|itc Bih4@?) @?_ 6h@?Uic ? Lh_ih |L UL4T@hi |i @h@M*|) Lu @hLt 4@UhLiUL?L4U @h @M*itc ?U*_?} |i |h@?t@|*@?|U i U@?}i h@|it Aih t4*@|L?t tL |@| ,N UL*_ hi_Ui |i @h@M*|) Lu |i |h@?t@|*@?|U i U@?}i h@|ic M| ? |ih t|_) |i @t)44i|hit ? ,hLTi @hi 4?43i_ M) hi_U?} |i ihL 3L?i |L Bih4@?) @?_ 6h@?Ui t |i @|Lht i T*@?c i |i?_?} |t @?@*)tt |L L|ih ,hLTi@? UL?|hit L*_ ThL_i @ 4Lhi i @t |i t|LU@t|U hiThiti?|@|L? Lu ,hLTi@?_i tLhUit Lu tLU!tc M| L*_ @i |i _h@M@U! Lu 4Ti_?} |i ?|ihThi|@|L? Lu hit*|t Ai @?@*)tt _ii*LTi_ ? |t T@Tihc M*| L? @ t4T*ih 4L_i*c i @U|*) |hit |L ?it|}@|i L L*@|*|) 4@) _iTi?_ L? |i 4i4MihtT Lu |i Uh hi?U) @hi@c t4*|@?iLt*) 4@!?} |i TL?| |@| |i Uhi@|L? Lu ,N _Lit ?L| i?@?Ui |i t3i< Lu @?) i t|?} iUL?L4) M| ?t|i@_ UL4 M?it _gihi?| iUL?L4it | _gihi?| U@h@U|iht|Ut |L M@U! @ t?}*i Uhhi?U) ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚i @?_ LL? EbbH<t hit*|t @hi @*tL ih) 4U _iTi?_i?| L? |i 4L?i|@h) TL*U) hi@U|L? u?U|L?t ULti? uLh ,hLTi @?_ |i N5c *i |i Thiti?| t|_) |hit |L UL?|hL* uLh |L _gihi?| TL*U) h*it Ai 4L_i* ti_ ? |t T@Tih t M@ti_ L? |@| Lu @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t EbbD Ai *@||ih t @ @t?_@?Ui 4L_i*c ihi UL?t4iht @hi t@hiL*_iht @?_ __i |ih ?UL4i Mi|ii? UL?t4T|L?c 4L?i)c ML?_tc @?_ i^|) t@hit BLL_t @hi TihuiU| tMt|||it @?_ |ihiuLhic @  hi*@|L? @?_ @ ^@?||) |iLh) Lu 4L?i) hi*@|L? i4ih}ic _i?|u)?} |i tLU!t |@| ** @giU| |i ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|i W? T@h|U*@hc u

(7).

(8) ML| Ui?|h@* M@?!t ?L*i_ |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4ic |i L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i Mi|ii? |L Uhhi?Uit ** _iTi?_ L? |i Mi@Lh Lu |i ThL_U||) tLU!t ? |i tt?} UL?|hit Ai @|Lht i T*Lhi |i |iLhi|U@* 4T*U@|L?t Lu |i 4L_i* uLh @ N?L? UL4Tht?} Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic W|@*) @?_ |i Nk At T@Tih<t ihtL? Lu |i 4L_i* |hit |L @__hitt |i u@U| |@| |i |h@_|L?@* i4ThU@* |it|t Lu *L?}h?  @i u@*i_ |L €?_ UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? |i ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|i @?_ hi*@|i ThUit Aihi t tL4i i_i?Ui |@| |i L4ttL? Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t 4@) Mi |i U@ti Lu |i hiiU|L? Lu @ UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L? ? |iti |it|t 3i?4@?EbHe L|*?it tL4i Lu |i igiU|t Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t L? ThU@t?} TLih T@h|) @?_ *@|ih t|_it tU @t #@|)@? @?_ TTi?}ihEbbf @?_ U@i*c LM@) @?_ ii*Ebb. @i |hi_ |L _ii*LT |i iUL?L4i|hU 4T*U@|L?t Lu |Lti igiU|t #i |L _U*|it ? |i 4i@thi4i?| Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc @ M@t< t U@ti_ M) |ih L4ttL? ? it|4@|L? Lu |i @h@M*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i __|L?@**)c |i Thiti?| t|_) i |i?_t |i i4ThU@* @?@*)tt ? @?3L?ih i| @*EbbDc M) UL4M??} 4Lt| ,N 4i4Miht E@** @T@h| uhL4 i*}4c |i w i4MLh}c 5T@? @?_ BhiiUi2 ? tiih@* TLttM*i ,Nt< @?_ M) ?|hL_U?} @ *L?}ih t@4T*i TihL_ Nt?} ^@h|ih*) B# _@|@ Mi|ii? b.ebbDc | UL?U*_it |@| uLh 4Lt| UL?|hit Lh }hLTt Lu UL?|hit 4i4MihtT i?@?Uit |i t|@M*|) Lu |i ihL @}@?t| ML| |i _L**@h @?_ |i )i?c i UiT| uLh |i 4i4MihtT Lu 5i_i? @?_ #i?4@h! U t uL?_ |L @i @ TLt|i 4T@U| L? |i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|i ih@**c |i hit*|t LM|@?i_ tL |@| |i ?i Uhhi?U) 4@) i** Mi *itt L*@|*i |@? |i _i|tUi4@h!c U t |i ?@|h@* Mi?U4@h! |L ti @t |i _i|tUi4@h! @t |i ,hLTi@? Uhhi?U) | |i 4Lt| Thi_L4?@?| hL*i ? W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui At hiiU|t |i u@U| |@| @}}hi}@|i ,hL3L?i B# }hL| 4@) Mi 4Lhi t|@M*i @?_ 4Lhi ULhhi*@|i_ | B# }hL| ? |i N5 @?_ a@T@? 6?@**)c |t T@Tih @__hittit |i i?_L}i?i|) ThLM*i4t hi*i@?| |L |iti hit*|t *|L} ThL_U||) |hi?_t @hi ?L| *!i*) |L U@?}i ^U!*) @u|ih |i uLh4@|L? Lu ,Nc L|ih U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu |i iUL?L4) tU @t |i i*LU|) Lu 4L?i)c 51. 5 Vxlwdeoh. txduwhuo| gdwd frxog qrw eh rewdlqhg iru wkhvh frxqwulhv 0 vhh Dsshqgl{. e.

(9) |@| 4@) Mi ?L*i_ ? |i _i|ih4?@|L? Lu i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|itc 4@) Mi @*|ihi_ tMt|@?|@**) @?_ 4Lhi ^U!*) t t|@|i_ ? |i UL?U* tL?tc |i i}| Lu |t u@U|Lh ** _iTi?_ L? |i TL*U) ULUit Lu |i , Ai hi4@?_ih Lu |t T@Tih t Lh}@?3i_ ? @?L|ih t tiU|L?t 5iU|L? |L Thiti?|t |i 4L_i*c *i tiU|L? |hii _tUttit |i igiU|t Lu L|T| _t|hM@?Uit L? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|)c ?_ih ?L4?@* ? UL4i |@h}i|t 5iU|L? uLh _itUhMit |i 4i|L_L*L}) uLh @}}hi}@|?} L|T| |hi?_t ? ,N @?_ |it|?} |i igiU|t Lu @ UL?|h)<t Lh @ }hLT Lu UL?|hit< 4i4MihtT ? |i 4L?i|@h) ?L? @?_ |i tMti^i?| tiU |L? Thiti?|t @?_ _tUttit |i i4ThU@* hit*|t W? tiU|L? t hit*|t @hi _ihi_ uLh |i U@ti ihi Ui?|h@* M@?!t |@h}i| 4L?i) }hL| ? t|i@_ Lu ?L4?@* ?UL4i @?_ |ih hLMt|?itt t @?@*)3i_ 5iU|L? tii? UL?U*_it. 2. Ai L_i*. L?t_ih @ Lh*_ iUL?L4) UL4Thti_ Lu |hii UL?|hitG |i N5c Bih 4@?) @?_ 6h@?Ui At ** Mi tUi?| |L _ihi hit*|t U U@? i@t*) Mi }i?ih@*3i_ W? |t iUL?L4)c i@U TihL_c @? ?€?|i*) *i_ hiThiti?|@|i UL?t4ih 4@ 43it i TiU|i_ |*|) L| G L| ' .|. "k [

(10) '|. q.

(11) 3|. ES

(12) . l. E. ihi .| t |i i TiU|@|L?t LTih@|Lh EUL?t4iht 4@ 43i i TiU|i_ |*|) MiU@ti |i) @hi ?Uih|@? @ML| |i t|hi@4 Lu u|hi i@h??}tc q t @ TLt|i _tUL?| u@U|Lh @?_ S

(13) ' k S

(14) n k S

(15) n k& S&

(16) t |i R|*|) i}|i_ UL?t4T|L? M@t!i| Lu |i hiThiti?|@|i UL?t4ihc U ?U*_it |i UL?t4T|L? Lu }LL_t ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U)  ES

(17)  c ? Uhhi?U)  ES

(18)  @?_ Uhhi?U) & ES&

(19)  Ai u?U|L? E t UL?|?Lt*) _gihi?|@M*i @?_ t|hU|*) ?Uhi@t?} ? @** @h}4i?|t @?_ |i M@t!i|t< Lu D.

(20) }LL_t @hi tMt|||it uLh L?i @?L|ihc | 4@h}?@* h@|it Lu tMt|||L? }i? M) |i h@|Lt k *k c uLh @** c  c  9'  6?@**)c ?L|Ui |@| tMtUhT|t _i?L|i |i Uhhi?Uit Lu ?LUic  ' _c }c s (  ' _c }c s ( & ' _c }c sc @?_ |4i hitTiU|i*)G. _ ' _L**@h } ' _i|tUi4@h! s ' uhi?Uuh@?U | |i Mi}???} Lu TihL_

(21) UL?t4iht hiUii ?UL4i @?_ |h@_i @tti|t u|ih |t €?@?U@* i U@?}ic |i) @hi @M*i |L M) i@U }LL_  t?} U@tc @?_ |i TihUi?|@}i #

(22) Lu TihL_<t

(23) ?L4?@* ?UL4i ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) 

(24) Ai hi4@??} TLh|L? Lu |@| ?UL4i U@? L?*) Mi ti_ uLh UL?t4T |L? u | t UL?ih|i_ ?|L 4L?i) ? |i ?i | €?@?U@* i U@?}i At 4i@?t |@|c @| i@U |4i

(25) c UL?t4iht u@Ui @t?_@?Ui UL?t|h@?|t Lu |i uLh4G 

(26) n #

(27) R

(28) t

(29)  R

(30) S

(31). ;. E2. Oihi R

(32) t |i ThUi *ii* Lu }LL_t ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) ( t

(33) t uh@U |L? Lu hi@* ?UL4i ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) c Lih U |i ?__@* @t U*@4t( @?_ 

(34) t |i @4L?| Lu Uhhi?U)  ?L4?@* U@t M@*@?Uit i*_ @| TihL_

(35)  #h?} |i €?@?U@* i U@?}ic |L}i|ih | U@t M@*@?Uitc UL?t4iht U@? @*tL @U^hi L?i TihL_ ML?_t ?LUi_ ? i@U Uhhi?U)  

(36) c;  U ** T@) TLt|i ?L4?@* ?|ihit| 

(37)  @t M@*@?Uit @?_ ML?_t ?LUi_ ? L?i Uhhi?U) @hi U@h@U|ih3i_ M) L Ui@T | t |L 4@!i |h@?t@U|L?t ? |@| Uhhi?U)<t uLhi}? i U@?}i 4@h!i| Wu | t hi*@|i*) i Ti?ti |ihi t @ |@ < uLh 4@!?} ThU@tit Lu @tti|t _i?L4?@|i_ ? |@| Uhhi?U) Wu | t hi*@|i*) Ui@T |ihi t @ *^ _|) Thi44< wi| 

(38) _i?L|i |i |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t ? |i 4@h!i|  n 

(39) uLh Uhhi?U)  Ai?c ** }i |i |@ <% *^_|)Thi44< uLh  n 

(40) 6 Wklv. ihdwxuh zloo doorz wkh yhorflw| wr glhu iurp 41 Lw zdv lqwurgxfhg lqwr wkh olwhudwxuh e| Zrrgirug+4<<4,1. S.

(41) M)?} @tti|t _i?L4?@|i_ ? Uhhi?U) c t?} i@*| _i?L4?@|i_ ? Uhhi?U)  At ThL_it @ ih) t4T*i @) Lu ?|hL_U?} |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t *?!i_ | |i *^_|) U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu |i _gihi?| 4@h!i|t  4Lhi _i|@*i_ |hi@|4i?| Lu |Lti U@? Mi uL?_ ? +i) Ebb. Bi? |i @tt4T|L?t t|@|i_ @MLic |i ThU@ti Lu @tti|t t tMiU| |L |i uL**L?} M_}i| UL?t|h@?|c i Thitti_ ? ?|t Lu Uhhi?U) G & d`

(42)  .

(43) o [

(44) n e

(45) d`

(46)  .

(47) o [

(48) n ne

(49) d`&

(50)  .&

(51) o [&

(52)  f. E

(53) . ihi [

(54)   n 

(55). [

(56)   n 

(57). [&

(58)   n &

(59). & @?_ ihi e

(60) @?_ e

(61) @hi |i i U@?}i h@|it ti_ |L UL?ih| ?|t Lu Uhhi?U)  @?_ ?|t Lu Uhhi?U) &c hitTiU|i*)c ?|L ?|t Lu Uhhi?U)  `

(62) t|@?_t uLh |i i@*| U@hhi_ |hL} |L TihL_

(63) r €?@?U@* i U@?}i @?_ .

(64) c uLh TihL_

(65) r i Ti?_|hi ? €?@?U@* @tti|tc uLh @** c tU |@|G . . `

(66)  E

(67). 3. `

(68)  E

(69). 3. `&

(70)  E&

(71). 3. . n R

(72). . n R

(73). . n R&

(74). 3.  t

(75) 3. n E n 

(76).  t

(77) 3. n E n 

(78).  t&

(79) 3. n E n &

(80). 3. 3.  

(81) 3. 3. n A

(82)  R

(83).  

(84) 3. 3. 3. 3. n A

(85)  R

(86).  &

(87) 3.  S

(88) 3  S

(89) 3. 3. n A&

(90)  R&

(91).  S&

(92) 3. 3. .

(93) ' 

(94) n 

(95) .

(96) ' 

(97) n 

(98) .&

(99) ' &

(100) n &

(101) 6Lh @** c A

(102) @hi *4T t4 ?L4?@* |h@?tuiht }h@?|i_ EU*@4i_ M) |i }Lih?4i?| 5?Ui |i U@t?@_@?Ui UL?t|h@?|t E2 @?_ |i €?@?U@* M_}i| UL?t|h@?| E

(103)  ** Mi M?_?}e c |i TihL_ | €ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t E6t uLh |i 4@ 43@|L? Lu |i UL?t4ih<t |*|) tMiU| |L |iti |L UL?t|h@?|t |@!i |i uL**L?} uLh4GD 7 Lqwhuhvw. udwhv duh srvlwlyh dqg xwlolw| lv lqfuhdvlqj lq doo dujxphqwv dqg ghshqgv rqo| rq frqvxpswlrq1 8 Dsshqgl{ < vkrzv wkh h{whqvlyh yhuvlrq ri wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqw/ iurp zklfk lw lv hdvlhu wr rewdlq wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv1. ..

(104) >| R| E n |  f k. E| .  ES|  . E| . >| e | R| E n |   ES|    f ; 9'  k. E| . % & >|n  n |n  'f  q.| E n |  >|  n |. E| . % &  >|n e  n  |n |n ' f ; 9'   q.|  E n |  >| e|  n |. . . ihi >| t |i t@_L ThUi @ttLU@|i_ | |i M_}i| UL?t|h@?| @?_  ES|  _i?L|it |i _ih@|i Lu ES|  | hitTiU| |L S|  . W? @| hi}@h_t 4L?i|@h) @?_ €tU@* TL*Uitc | ** Mi @tt4i_ |@| i@U €tU@* @|Lh|) ti|t |i *ii* Lu |i Th4@h) _i€U|c A| c *i |i ?_iTi?_i?| Ui?|h@* M@?!t _iU_i L 4U ** Mi 4L?i|3i_ BLih? 4i?| ML?_ ttit @hi |i? i?_L}i?Lt*) _i|ih4?i_ M) |i }Lih?4i?|t< M_}i| UL?t|h@?|tG r ' |r |r n |. . 3. r n |  E n o|   n A| 3. 3. ;. r ihi |r t |i 4L?i) tTT*) ? Uhhi?U) c ihi@t | t |i tTT*) Lu ML?_t ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) c uLh @**  W? @__|L?c ? |t Lh*_ iUL?L4)c 4@h!i| U*i@h?} UL?_|L?t @hi }i? M)G. | ' |r. Ee. r | ' |. t| ' S|. H. ;.

(105) #,6WWAWG  UL4Ti||i i^*Mh4c ihi @** Uhhi?Uit @hi q r @*i_c ? |t  iUL?L4)c t _i€?i_ @t @ ti^i?Ui Lu ThUit R| c | c e| c @?_ @**LU@ |'f |L?t iS| c | c | j|'f c uLh @** c c tU |@|G E U@t? @_@?Ui UL? t|h@?|t _itUhMi_ M) i^@|L? E2 @hi t@|t€i_ | i^@*|) E|t uL**Lt uhL4 |i @tt4T|L?t L? |i |*|) u?U|L? @?_ ?L4?@* ?|ihit| h@|it( E @** 6t @hi t@|t€i_ | i^@*|)( E |i UL?t4iht< M_}i| UL?t|h@?|t E

(106)  @hi t@|t€i_ | i^@*|)( E |i }Lih4i?|t< M_}i| UL?t|h@?|t @hi t@|t€i_( E 4@h!i| U*i@h?} UL?_|L?t @hi t@|t€i_( @?_c €?@**)c E |i |h@?tiht@*|) UL?_|L? @?_ |i ?LL?3}@4i UL?_|L? @hi ML| t@|t€i_ ". ". L|Ui |@| |i u@U| |@| @** 6t L*_ | i^@*|) EMiU@ti @** Uhhi?Uit @hi @tt4i_ |L Mi @*i_ 4T*it @? @}4i?|i_ < hi*@|L?tT ? |t i^*Mh4G # $ E n | R| e R R E n   k  n  | | |  | ' | ED / e | ' k k R| k  n | Aihi @hi |L tLhUit Lu Tihtt|i?| _i@|L?t uhL4 |i |h@_|L?@*  hi*@|L? ? |t i ThittL? ?i t |i i t|i?Ui Lu |h@?t@U|L? ULt|tc |i L|ih t |i 4TihuiU| _i}hii Lu tMt|||@M*|) Mi|ii? |i }LL_t #i?L|i |i _i@|L? Lu ThUit @?_ |i i U@?}i h@|i c  uhL4  M) x | G x | .  n | k  n | k. At @**Lt uLh @ t4T*€i_ ihtL? ? ?@|h@* *L}@h|4t Lu |i ThiLt hi*@|L?G  *? e | ' *? R|  *? R| n *? x|. | *? x | * S n E|  |  c S ' *? k  *? k b. ES.

(107) Oi?Ui |i @h@M*|) Lu |i _i@|L?t uhL4  U@? Mi @||hM|i_ |L |i @h@M*|) Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t W? @__|L?c UL?t_ih |i uL**L?} _i€?|L? Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i Mi|ii? Uhhi?U)  @?_ Uhhi?U) G  2    2  E. j Ee   .| *? e|n . | d *? e|n o 5Mt|||?} i^@|L? ES ?|L |t _i€?|L?c | t TLttM*i |L _itUhMi |i L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i ? |ih4t Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu ThUit @?_ |h@?t@U|L? ULt|tG   2   2  EH j Ee  ' .| | 7ER|n   | 7ER|n  n | 7Ex|n  ihi | 7E%|n   E*? %|n  *? .| d*? %|n oc uLh @?) @h@M*i % Bi? |@| ? |t i^*Mh4 @** U@t?@_@?Ui UL?t|h@?|t hiThi ti?|i_ M) i^@|L? E2 L*_ | i^@*|) @?_ 4@h!i|t U*i@h Ei S| ' t| c ; | t TLttM*i |L _i?|u) @ ^@?||) |iLh) Lu 4L?i) hi*@|L? ? |t  ' T| t |i i*LU|) Lu 4L?i) G iUL?L4)c ihic   #| | ' R| S|  #| R| t| ' E  #| R| t|. Eb. 6Lh |i i^*Mh4 ?|ihit| h@|it |i i ThittL? MiUL4it 4Lhi UL4 T*U@|i_ @t | ** _iTi?_ L? |i UL@h@?Ui Mi|ii? ?@|L? @?_ |i ?|ih|i4TLh@* h@|i Lu tMt|||L? ? UL?t4T|L?G % &   ES|n  R| ' q.|  E n |   ES|  R|n . .

(108). , U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) @?_ ThL_U| |) |hi?_t. Ai €ht| t|iT ** Mi |L _i|ih4?i L tLU!t ** @giU| |t iUL?L4) @| |4i |n 6L**L?} @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@tEbbDc |i t|LU@t|U Mi@Lh Lu L|T| @?_ i*LU|) ** Mi _itUhMi_ M)G f.

(109) t|n ' t| 0|n. Ef. T|n ' T| v|n. E. ihi 0|n c v|n @hi i L}i?Lt h@?_L4 tLU!t @giU|?} L|T| @?_ i *LU|) hitTiU|i*)c ?ULhhi*@|i_ Lih |4i @?_ _i?|U@**) _t|hM|i_c tU |@|G . d*? 0|n o ' . d*? v|n o ' f Ai hi*i@?Ui Lu |iti @tt4T|L?t ** Mi _tUtti_ ? |i i4ThU@* @TT*U@|L? Ai ?i | t|iT ** Mi |L _i|ih4?i L TL*U) ULUit ** @giU| |i Mi@Lh Lu ThUit t @ Mi?U4@h!c | ** Mi tiu* |L @tt4i €ht| |@| |i i?|h@* @?!t ? @** UL?|hit |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4i wi| & Mi |i ?L4?@* ?UL4i |@h}i| ? UL?|h) c tU |@|G W. R|n t|n ' & R| t|. W. E2. Ai?c tMt|||?} |i Mi@Lh Lu L|T| }i? M) i^@|L? Ef ?|L |i ?L4?@* ?UL4i |@h}i|?} h*i )i*_t |i uL**L?} hi*@|L? Mi|ii? ?@|L? @?_ ThL_U||) tLU!tG & R|n '  R| 0|n W. E

(110) . ) h|?} |t i ThittL? ? *L}@h|4t | t TLttM*i |L tL |@|c ?_ih |t TL*U) hi}4ic ?i | TihL_ L|T| tLU!t E@?_ L?*) |iti |h@?t*@|i ?|L ?i | TihL_ ThUi thThtit<c _i€?i_ @t *? R|n  .| d*? R|n oG .| d*? R|n o ' *? &  *? R| W. *? R|n  .| d*? R|n o '  *? 0|n . Ee.

(111) At i ThittL? U@? ?L Mi ti_ |L i Thitt |i @h@?Ui Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i  ? |ih4t Lu |i @h@?Uit @?_ UL@h@?Uit Lu |i i L}i?Lt tLU!t ||?} iUL?L4it  @?_  5Mt|||?} |t ?|L i^@|L? EH )i*_tG. j2 Ee  ' T @o|n d*? 0|n  *? 0|n o n k. nT @o|n *? x.  |. l. k. n 2J|n E*? 0|n  *? 0|n c *? x.  |. l. ED. W| 4}| Mi hi@tL?@M*i |L i TiU| |i UL@h@?Ui |ih4 |L Mi TLt|ic t?Ui |ihi t i4ThU@* i_i?Ui Lu @ ?i}@|i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? |h@?t @U|L?t ULt|t @?_ L*4iS AihiuLhic L4||?} _i@|L?t uhL4  uhL4 |i @?@*)tt 4@) ThL_Ui @ _L?@h_ M@t ? |i it|4@|it uLh L*@|*|) #i?L|i jh 2 Ee  |i M@ti_< L*@|*|) it|4@|iG jh 2 Ee  ' T @o|n d*? 0|n  *? 0|n o. ES. Wu |i M@t hit*|?} uhL4 |i L4ttL? Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t t @TThL  4@|i*) |i t@4i uLh @** ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uitc | tL*_ ?L| t}?€U@?|*) @giU| |i h@?!?} Lu |Lti Uhhi?Uit ? |ih4t Lu L*@|*|) W? |i uL* *L?} tiU|L?tc |t M@ti_< L*@|*|) it|4@|i ** Mi ti_ |L @ttitt |i igiU|t Lu ,N L? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|)c Mi@h?} ? 4?_ |t TLttM*i *4|@|L?t. e. ,giU|t Lu ,N L? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|* |). W? |t tiU|L?c | t @tt4i_ |@|c @| |i Mi}???} Lu TihL_ | n c ,hLTi@? UL?|hit uLh4 @ L?i|@h) N?L? ,hLTi@? L|T| t }i? M) |i t4 Lu |i L|T| Lu i@U Lu |i 4i4Mih UL?|hitG 9 Kduwpdqq +4<<9,1. 2.

(112) te|n  t}|n n ts |n ' t}| 0}|n n ts | 0s |n ' te| 0e|n ihi. E.. 0e|n ' }| 0}|n n s | 0s |n t}| ts | }|  ( s |  t}| n ts | t}| n ts |. EH. 4||?} |i igiU| Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc @UULh_?} |L i ThittL? ESc |i it|4@|i uLh |i ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|ic ?_ih ?L4?@* ?UL4i |@h}i|?}c t }i? M)G jh 2 Ee_e  ' T @o|n. % #. 0e|n *? 0_|n. $&. Eb. ihi |i tTihtUhT|t @?_ tMtUhT|t _ @?_ e _i?L|i _L**@h @?_ ihL hitTiU|i*) @?_ ihi |i ,hLTi@? L|T| tLU! t @ u?U|L? Lu |i L|T| tLU!t Lu i@U Lu |i ,hL3L?i iUL?L4itc @t _i€?i_ M) i^@|L? EH L?ti^i?|*)c |i M}}ih |i ihL @hi@c |i 4Lhi UL4TLt|i |i tLU! |ih4 ** Mi W| t @*tL i@t) |L tii |@| |i _L**@h UL*_ Mi hiT*@Ui_ M) @?) L|ih |h_ Uhhi?U)c tU @t |i )i? Ai it|4@|i Lu |i ihL )i? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) |ihiuLhi U@? Mi h||i? @tG jh Ee  ' T @o|n 2. +e. % #. 0e|n *? 0+|n. $&. AL LM|@? tL4i ?t}| ?|L i|ih |i ihL tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_ |L Mi 4Lhi Lh *itt L*@|*i |@? |i ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uitc @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t EbbDc @tt4?} |@|  L*_tc ti tU @? it|4@|i |L @?@*)3i |i L*@|*|) Lu |i _L**@hihL i U@?}i h@|it uLh @ N?L? UL4Tht?} Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic |i Nk @?_ W|@*) Ai) it|4@|i |i L|T| tLU!t uLh |iti UL?|hit @?_ uLh |i N5 t?} 5L*L hit_@*t U@*U*@|i_ M) B*U! @?_ +L}Lg Ebb

(113)  W? @?3L?ih<t @?_ #i**@t<t 4L_i* }LL_t @hi ?LUi_ ? |i Uhhi?U) Lu |i ThL_Uihc U uLh |i i4ThU@* it|4@|it t |i tiUL?_ Mit| @tt4T|L? t?Ui |ihi t ?L t|@M*i _@|@ L? |i Uhhi?U) 

(114).

(115) ?LUi Lu |h@_i. Aih t@4T*i t bSfbbfc @??@* LMtih@|L?t @?_ |ih hit*|t uLh |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?t Lu i U@?}i h@|i Thi_U|L? ihhLht @hi t44@h3i_ ? |i |@M*i Mi*LGH. A@Mi* G L_i* ,t|4@|it Lu , U@?}i +@|i VL*@|*|) | 5L*L +it_@*t #@|@ jh Ee_   ff bSf  bbf Ceo6@?+ 8 o@?Se Lg U|@,+ .oJRe. 2Hf 2bD 222

(116) H2 Hb. @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t EbbD. Aiti hit*|t t}}it| |@| |i _L**@hihL i U@?}i h@|it tL*_ ?L| Mi i TiU|i_ |L Mi 4Lhi L*@|*i |@? |i _i|tUi4@h!c Lh @?) Lu |i L|ih Uhhi?Uit tti_ M) |i UL?|hit ?U*_i_ ? |i @?@*)tt  Aiti hit*|t _L ?L| @i |L ULhhitTL?_ |L hi@* _@|@c t?Uic @T@h| uhL4 |i M@t _i?|€i_ i@h*ihc ULhhitTL?_?} |L |i L4ttL? Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc |iti @hi |i Thi_U|L?t Lu @ 4L_i* M*| ?_ih |i @tt4T|L? |@| @** Ui?|h@* M@?!t |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4i W| t ?|ihit|?}c ?iih|i*ittc |L UL4T@hi |i4 | |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?t Lu *L}U@?}it Lu _L**@h i U@?}i h@|it |L tii L |i) 44Uc @| *i@t|c |i h@?!?} Lu L*@|*|itGb : Wkh HFX Lqvwlwxwh surgxfhv vrph vwdwlvwlfv rq wkh shufhqwdjh ri h{sruwv lqyrlfhg lq wkh surgxfhuv fxuuhqf|/ exw wklv w|sh ri gdwd lv qrw ghwdlohg hqrxjk wr eh xvhg lq wklv nlqg ri h{huflvh1 Wkh gdwd/ krzhyhu fruurerudwh wkh lghd wkdw wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw h{sruwv duh lqyrlfhg lq wkh surgxfhuv fxuuhqf| lv d vhfrqg ehvw dvvxpswlrq +HFX Lqvwlwxwh/ 4<<8,1 ; Hvwlpdwhg uhjuhvvlrqv dqg wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{ duh uhsruwhg lq Dsshqgl{ 41 < Wkh yrodwlolw| phdvxuh uhsruwhg khuh lv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh fkdqjhv lq wkh orjdulwkp ri dqqxdo groodu h{fkdqjh udwhv phdvxuhg dv wkh dyhudjh ri wkh txdwhuo| gdwd uhsruwhg e| RHFG1. e.

(117) A@M*i 2G 5|@?_@h_ #i@|L?t Lu wL}@?}it Lu #L**@h , U@?}i +@|it jEe_   ff Ceo6@?+ 8 o@?Se Lg U|@,+ .oJRe. Sf  bf. Sf  .

(118). .e  bf. bHf fSf HDf fDf . Def ebD

(119) bD S. . 2ef 

(120) D. 2 

(121) SS . ,# _@|@ uLh ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|it. `i U@? ihu) |@| |i h@?!?} Lu |i L*@|*|it uLh |i TihL_ bSf bbf t t4*@hc i UiT| uLh W|@*) OLiihc L?i Lu |i @tt4T|L?t Lu |i 4L_i* t @ L@|?} i U@?}i h@|i hi}4i W? u@U|c uLh |i TLt|hi||L? `LL_t TihL_ |i h@?!?} Lu |i 4L_i* MiUL4it UL4T@|M*i | |i |hi h@?!?} iih|i*ittc | 4@) Mi Thiuih@M*i |L it|4@|i ThL_U| |) |hi?_t | _@|@ L?*) hiuihh?} |L |t TihL_ N?uLh|?@|i*)c | |i t@4i _@|@ti|c it|4@|L?t @hi *4|i_ |L . LMtih@|L?t  tiU L?_ _h@M@U! Lu |i _@|@ti| ti_ M) @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t EbbD uLh |t @?@*)tt t |i u@U| |@| | U@? L?*) @**L uLh @ |it| L? |i igiU|t Lu @__?} |i Nk @?_ W|@*) @t i |h@ ,N 4i4Mihtc *i | tL*_ Mi ?|ihit|?} |L @?@*)3i |i igiU|t Lu @__?} @*tL |i hi4@??} ,N UL? |hitc ? T@h|U*@h |Lti UL?|hit ? |i TihTih)< OLiihc 5L*L +it_@*t _@|@M@tit @hi L?*) @@*@M*i uLh @ ih) hit|hU|i_ t@4T*i Lu UL?|hitc MiU@ti hi*@M*i _@|@ |L UL?t|hU| |i4 t _U*| |L LM|@? BL?} M@U! |L |i |iLhi|U@* 4L_i*c | tii4t T*@tM*i |L i |h@U| |i ??L@|L?t uhL4 L|T| _@|@ _hiU|*)f B# _@|@c Mi?} @@*@M*i ? ^@h|ih*) LMtih@|L?t @*tL @**Lt t |L i |i?_ |i *i?}| Lu |i |4i tihit 43 Li. vkrfnv wr rxwsxw duh pdlqo| gulyhq e| surgxfwlylw| vkrfnv +Vrorz uhvlgxdo vkrfnv, wkh uhvxowv ghulyhg iurp wkh wzr gdwdvhwv vkrxog eh frpsdwleoh1. D.

(122) W? Lh_ih |L @?@*)3i L B# _@|@ UL4T@hit | |i _@|@ ti_ ? @?3L?ih i| @* EbbD |i t@4i i ihUti @t ?_ih|@!i? t?} |i ?i _@|@ ti| uLh |i t@4i UL?|hit Ai hit*|t LM|@?i_ @hi t44@h3i_ ? A@M*i

(123) G2. A@M*i

(124) G L_i* ,t|4@|it Lu , U@?}i +@|i VL*@|*|) | B# #@|@ jh Ee_ |   ff bSf  bbf Ceo6@?+ 8 o@?Se Lg U|@,+ .oJRe. 2e 22

(125) bD 2DH bf. ,t|4@|L?t M@ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh B#. *|L} |i @MtL*|i @*it _gihc |i ?i h@?!?} M@ti_ L? B# _@|@ t t4*@h |L |@| hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i  6Lh |t hi@tL? i ** @UUiT| |i B# _@|@ |L Mi UL4T@|M*i | |ih _@|@ Ai @_@?|@}i Lu t?} B# t |@| | t @@*@M*i uLh @** ,N UL?|hitc uLh |i N5 @?_ uLh a@T@?c uLh @ hi*@|i*) *L?} TihL_ Nt?} |t B# _@|@ ** @**L t |L |it| |i igiU|t Lu |i 4i4 MihtT Lu T@h|U*@h UL?|hit Lh }hLTt Lu UL?|hit L? |i ?t|@M*|) Lu |i ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|i AL @__hitt |i ThLM*i4t t|@|i_ MiuLhic |i @?@*)tt ** Mi ?_ih|@!i? t?} ^@h|ih*) _@|@ uhL4 b.e |L bbDc uLh |i N5c @?_ 4Lt| ,N 4i4Miht Ai ?U*tL? Lu a@T@?iti _@|@ ? |i _@|@ti| ** @*tL @**L t |L 4@!i Thi_U|L?t uLh |i ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|i 44 Dsshqgl{. 5 frqwdlqv d ghvfulswlrq ri wkh vhulhv1 hvwlpdwhv dqg wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{ duh vkrzq lq Dsshqgl{ 61. 45 Uhjuhvvlrq. S.

(126) ** it|4@|it Thiti?|i_ @MLi L4| |i Thiti?Ui Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t @?_ ?Uh |i M@t hiuihhi_ ? |i i?_ Lu |i *@t| tiU|L? At L4t tL?c Liihc ** t|** Mi ?iUitt@h) MiU@ti |i _@|@ ?ii_i_ |L ThL ) |iti ULt|t t ?L| @@*@M*i

(127) #@|@ L? M_@t! tThi@_tc UL*_ ThL_i @ ThL ) uLh |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t ? |i uLhi}? i U@?}i 4@h!i|c @*|L} |ihi t ?L UL?ti?tt L? i|ih |t t @? @TThLTh@|i ThL )c M| |ihi @hi ThLM*i4t | |i _@|@ti|t @@*@M*i #@|@t|hi@4 @?_ L|ih UL4 4ihU@* _@|@M@tit |@!i t| L?i T@h|U*@h ^L|i Lu @ t?}*i M@?! Tih _@) Lh |i @ih@}i Lu |hii Lh uLh M@?!t @| U*Lti Lu Mt?itt ) UL4T@h?} |t ?4Mih | |i ?4Mih Lu +i|iht< ^L|it _h?} Th* |@| t hi TLh|i_ M) O@h|4@?Ebb. L?i U@? @i @? _i@ Lu L 4ThiUti |iti _@|@ @hie Ai *@||ih tit 4Lhi hi*@M*i _@|@ @__?} ?uLh4@|L? uhL4 @hLt tLhUitc M| |t _@|@ ti| t @ tLh| T@?i* | L?*) |L )i@ht Ai *L?}it| @UUh@|i |4i tihit _@|@ @TTi@ht ? O@h|4@?EbbSc M| t t| @@*@M*i uLh M_@t! tThi@_t ? _L**@h)i? |h@?t@U|L?t EMi|ii? bHS @?_ bbDD. 46 Dqrwkhu. zd| wr ryhufrph wkh sureohp frxog eh wr prgho ghyldwlrqv iurp SSS gluhfwo|1 Krzhyhu wkh| pd| lqfoxgh rwkhu skhqrphqd dsduw iurp wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv/ vxfk dv phdvxuhphqw huuruv1 Plfkdho/ Qred| dqg Shho+4<<3, vkrz wkdw wkh ehkdylrxu ri ghyldwlrqv iurp SSS fdq eh zhoo ghvfulehg e| dq h{srqhqwldo vprrwk wudqvlwlrq dxwruhjuhvvlyh +HVWDU, prgho1 Ilwwlqj wklv surfhvv lw lv srvvleoh wr h{wudfw wkh l1l1g1 lqqrydwlrqv lq wkh ghyldwlrqv iurp SSS1 47 Wdeoh 4/ sdjh 671 48 Sruwhv dqg Uh| +4<<;, hvwlpdwh wkh yroxphv ri wudgh lq hdfk fxuuhqf| dqg xvh Kduwpdqq +4<<:,*v hvwlpdwhv iru wkh hodvwlflw| ri wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv zlwk uhvshfw wr iruh{ yroxphv +031336,/ lq rughu wr rewdlq wkh ch{shfwhg* ohyhov ri hxur wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv xqghu glhuhqw vfhqdulrv1 Wklv lqgluhfw dssurdfk pd| eh dssursuldwh wr hvwlpdwh wkh h{shfwhg ohyhov exw fdqqrw jlyh lqirupdwlrq rq wkh yduldelolw|1. ..

(128) D. ,hL , U@?}i +@|i VL*@|*|) @?_ ,N UL4TLt|L?. W? Lh_ih |L |it| L ihL i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) _iTi?_t L? |i UL4TL t|L? Lu ,Nc tiih@* 4L?i|@h) ?L?t< ihi UL?t|hU|i_G |i Lhi<c uLh4i_ M) Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic t|h@ @?_ |i i|ih*@?_t Ei*}4 @?_ w i4MLh} i U*_i_( |i Lhi:|@<c ihi W|@*) @t @__i_ |L |i ThiLt *t| Lu UL?|hit( |i ,hL3L?i<c U ?U*_it |i UL?|hit |@| @i L?i_ |i t?}*i Uhhi?U) ? |i €ht| t|@}ic i UiT| uLh i* }4c w i4MLh} @?_ 5T@?( |i ,hL:!<c U hit*|t uhL4 @__?} |i Nk |L |i ,hL3L?i<( @?_c €?@**)c |i ,hL:L|t<c uLh4i_ M) @** |i UL?|hit ?U*_i_ ? |i ,hL3L?i< }hLT T*t |i Nkc #i?4@h! @?_ 5ii_i? EBhiiUi i U*_i_ t u@h @t i*}4c w i4MLh}c BhiiUi @?_ 5T@? @hi UL?Uih?i_c |i _@|@ uLh |iti UL?|hit _L ?L| tii4 UL4 T@h@M*i | |i _@|@ uLh |i L|ih UL?|hitc ? |ih4t Lu Ruhi^i?U) W? tL4i Lu |iti U@tit |i _@|@ 4@) @i Mii? ?|ihTL*@|i_ uhL4 @??@* LM tih@|L?t @?_ _L ?L| tii4 @TThLTh@|i uLh i |h@U|?} ^@h|ih*) tLU!t 6Lh |iti hi@tL?tc |Lti UL?|hit ihi i U*_i_ uhL4 |i @?@*)tt ,hLTi@? tLU!t uLh |iti _gihi?| 4L?i|@h) ?L?t<c ihi UL? t|hU|i_c L? |i M@tt Lu t|LhU@* B# |hi?_tc uL**L?} i^@|L? EHc U }it |i @}}hi}@|i tLU! @t @ i}|i_ UL4M?@|L? Lu |i ?_ _@* 4i4Mih UL?|hit< tLU!t Ai *@||ih ihi it|4@|i_ M) €||?} ?_iTi?_i?| + ThLUittit |L |i B# tihit Lu i@U T@h|UT@|?} UL? |h)c @UULh_?} |L |i @tt4T|L?t Lu i^@|L? Ef **L?} uLh |i u@U| |@| Bih4@? _@|@ @u|ih ?€U@|L? ?ULhTL h@|it |i _@|@ uhL4 ,@t| Bih4@?)c |i t|@|t|U@* 4L_i* @tt4i_ uLh L|T| ? tiU|L? e tii4t |L 44U |i Mi@Lh Lu |i _@|@ u@h*) i**c i UiT| uLh |i TihL_t uL**L?} ML| L* tLU!t ? @ ?4Mih Lu UL?|hit @?_ uLh |i TihL_ ULhhitTL?_?} |L |i t|iiT b.H hiUittL? ? t|h@ @?_ uLh |i Wht MLL4< @u|ih bbeS ,t|4@|L?t @hi hiTLh|i_ ? T Ti?_ e Ai @h@?Uit @?_ UL@h@?Uit Lu |i ihhLh |ih4t LM|@?i_ 49 Ghwdlov. duh jlyhq lq Dsshqgl{ 71. H.

(129) 4T*) |i uL**L?} hit*|t uLh |i ihL_L**@h% ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|itG. A@M*i e G L_i* ,t|4@|it Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu _L**@h @?_ )i? i U@?}i h@|it @}@?t| |i Bih4@? Uhhi?U) @?_ )TL|i|U@* ,N< Uhhi?Uit jh Eee   ff | Bih4@?) Lhi Lhi:|@ ,hL3L?i ,hL:! ,hL:L|t. _L**@h ff fb

(130)  fbe fbf fHHD fH.2. )i? fHSf f.eD f. f.fD fSbH f.fe. ,t|4@|L?t M@ti_ L? ,# _@|@ uLh B# Eb.ebbD. Ai hit*|t t}}it| |@| |i ihL i U@?}i h@|it @}@?t| |i |L L|ih 4@Lh ?|ih?@|L?@* Uhhi?Uit tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_ |L Mi *itt L*@|*i UL4T@hi_ | |i i@h*ih _i|tUi4@h! i U@?}i h@|i Ai _i|tUi4@h! ihi t ti_ @t @ Mi?U4@h! MiU@ti | t |i ,hLTi@? Uhhi?U) | @ 4Lt| ThL4?i?| hL*i ? W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui Ai ,N |@| _i*iht |i }it| t|@M*|) @}@?t| |i _L**@h t @ 4L?i|@h) ?L? uLh4i_ M) @** |i UL?|hit ? |i t@4T*i W? T@h|U*@hc |i Nk<t LT|L| U*@ti tii4t |L @i @? LTTLh|?|) ULt| ? |ih4t Lu ihL i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) Ai _iUhi@ti Lu L*@|*|) ? |i U@ti Lu |i Nk U@? Mi i@t*) i T*@?i_ M) @ } UL@h@?Ui | |i N5c @ttLU@|i_ | |t } B# i}|. W? u@U|c @__?} |i Nk hi_Uit |i @h@?Ui Lu ,hLTi@?_i _t|h M@?Uit @?_ i?@?Uit |ih UL@h@?Ui | N5 tLU!t W? @| UL?Uih?t |i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|ic |i 4i4MihtT Lu 5i_i? 4: Fryduldqfhv. duh uhsruwhg lq Dsshqgl{ 71. b.

(131) @?_ #i?4@h! tLt @ TLt|i 4T@U| L? L*@|*|)c 4@?*) _i |L |i ?i}@|i UL@h@?Ui Lu |iti UL?|hit< B# | |@| Lu a@T@?H AL ihu) i|ih |i ?4Miht hiTLh|i_ @MLi @hi t|@|t|U@**) _u uihi?| uhL4 i@U L|ihc @ t|@|t|U@* |it| @t U@hhi_ L| At @t UL? t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu |i |it|t ThLTLti_ M) #iML*_ @?_ @h@?LEbbD uLh UL4T@h?} uLhiU@t| ihhLht 6Lh @ *Ltt u?U|L? tU @t |i t^@hi Lu |i uLhiU@t| ihhLhtc |i _gihi?Ui Mi|ii? |L *Ltt tihit E02|  02|  @t @? @t)4T|L|U@**) ?Lh4@* _t|hM|L? AihiuLhic |i *@h}i t@4T*i Efc  t|@|t|U uLh |it|?} |i ?** )TL|itt |@| |i ihhLh tihit @hi _gihi?| t S 7 ' E02| 02| *EA jc ihi j t |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? Lu |i _gihi?Ui Lu |i *Lttit AL |it| i|ih |i _t|hM@?Uit uL?_ uLh |i _gihi?| ,Nt< @hi t|@|t|U@**) _gihi?|c |i tihit E02|  02|  ihi hi}hitti_ L? @ UL?t|@?| L|Ui |@| |i |  |er| uLh |i )TL|itt |@| |i UL?t|@?| t i^@* |L 3ihL ULhhitTL?_t |L 7 Ai |it|t ?_ih|@!i? @hi hiTLh|i_ ? TTi?_ D @?_ 4T*) |@| 4Lt| Lu |i @*it ? |i ThiLt |@M*i @hi UL?t_ihi_ t@|t|U@**) _gihi?| uhL4 i@U L|ihb ih@**c 4Lt| hit*|t tii4 |L ULhhLMLh@|i @h|?Ebb.<t UL?U*tL? |@| |i *@h}ih |i 4L?i|@h) ?L?c |i 4Lhi t|@M*i | 4t| Mi OLiihc ? |t U@tic | t |i T@h|U*@h U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu ThL_U||) |hi?_t |@| @UUL?| uLh |t €?_?}c @?_ ?L| |i t3i ? |ti*u W? u@U|c @__?} #i?4@h! @?_ 5i_i? |L |i }hLT Lu ,hL:!<c i?@?Uit |i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|i _i |L |i ?i}@|i UL@h@?Ui Mi|ii? |i L|T| tLU!t Lu |iti UL?|hit | |i a@T@?iti L|T| tLU!t ,N _Lit ?L| t4T*) i?*@h}i @?) i t|?} iUL?L4)c | ?t|i@_ @TT*it @ UL44L? 4L?i|@h) TL*U) |L _gihi?| iUL?L4it | |ih L? tTiU€U ui@|hit 4; Wkhvh. qhjdwlyh fryduldqfhv dsshdu hyhq li qr gxpplhv duh lqfoxghg lq wkh uhjuhvvlrqv1 4< Dffruglqj wr wklv whvw/ krzhyhu/ wkh phpehuvkls ri wkh xn lv qrw vwdwlvwlfdoo| vlj0 qlfdqw1 Lw vkrxog eh qrwhg wkrxjk wkdw wklv whvw pxvw eh frqvlghuhg zlwk uhvhuydwlrq ehfdxvh wkh whvwv iru lwv qrupdolw| duh uhmhfwhg1. 2f.

(132) S. @?}it ? Vi*LU|). Ai h@?!?} hiTLh|i_ @MLi 4@) Mi tMiU| |L i?_L}i?i|) ThLM*i4t *|L} ThL_U||) |hi?_t tL*_ ?L| Mi i TiU|i_ |L U@?}i t}?u U@?|*) | |i 4L?i|@h) N?L?c i*LU|) |hi?_t 4@) U@?}i _h@4@| U@**) At t @? 4TLh|@?| ttic tTiU@**) u |i , _Lit ?L| |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4ic M| ?t|i@_ |@h}i|t 4L?i) }hL|G |n ' ZW |. E2f. 5Mt|||?} |i 4L?i|@h) TL*U) h*i E2f ?|L |i i*LU|) Lu 4L?i) hi*@|L? )i*_t |i uL**L?} Mi@Lh uLh ?@|L?G v|n R|n ' ZW R| 0|n. E2. W? |t U@ti i*LU|) tLU!t @hi 4TLh|@?| uLh |i @?@*)tt W? T@h|U*@hc tMt|||?} |i *L}@h|4 Lu |t TL*U) u?U|L? ?|L i^@|L? EH @?_ }?Lh?} @}@? |i igiU| Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t2f c |i i ThittL? uLh |i it|4@|i_ L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i ** ?L |@!i |i uL**L?} uLh4c uLh @** c G jh 2 Ee |n  ' T @o|n. % #. 0|n *v|n *? 0|n* v|n. $& E22. W? Lh_ih |L €?_ L| L |i ?U*tL? Lu i*LU|) tLU!t ? |i @?@* )tt 4@) @giU| |i hit*|tc | t 4TLh|@?| |L _i€?i ,hLTi@? i*LU|)c ? |ih4t Lu |i _@|@ uhL4 |i ?__@* UL?|hit ,hLTi@? i*LU|) UL*_ Mi _i€?i_ @t @ i}|i_ @ih@}i Lu |i i*LU|it LMtihi_ ? i@U 4i4Mih UL?|h) @?_ | tii4t hi@tL?@M*i |L @tt4i |@| |i i}|t ** 53 Wkh. eldv iurp ljqrulqj wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv lq wklv vhfwlrq zloo eh hvvhqfldoo| wkh vdph dv wkh rqh ghvfulehg ehiruh/ surylghg wkdw vkrfnv lq wudqvdfwlrq frvwv duh qrw fruuhodwhg zlwk vkrfnv lq yhorflw|1. 2.

(133) ULhhitTL?_ |L |i hi*@|i t3i Lu i@U 4i4Mih t|@|i2 A@!?} _| @?_ s | _i€?i_ ? i^@|L? EH | ** Mi @tt4i_ |@|G22 Te|n  _| T_|n ns | Ts |n ' Te| e|n. E2

(134) . ihi e|n '. _| T_| s | Ts | _|n n s |n _| T_| n s | Ts | _| T_| n s | Ts |. E2e. ) @**L?} uLh i*LU|) tLU!t @?_ hiTi@|?} |i i ihUti Lu |i Thi Lt tiU|L?c | t TLttM*i |L ihu) |@| UL?U*tL?t hi4@? ?U@?}i_ ii? i? i*LU|) |hi?_t @hi |@!i? ?|L UL?t_ih@|L?2

(135) ,hLTi@? i*LU|) tLU!t uLh |iti _gihi?| 4L?i|@h) ?L?t<c ihi UL?t|hU|i_ uL**L?} i^@|L? E2ec U }it |i @}}hi}@|i i*LU|) tLU! @t @ i}|i_ UL4M?@|L? Lu 4i4Mih UL?|hit< i*LU|) _t|hM@?Uit Ai *@|ih ihi it|4@|i_ M) €||?} ?_iTi?_i?| + ThLUittit |L |i i*LU |) tihit Lu i@U T@h|UT@|?} UL?|h)c @UULh_?} |L |i @tt4T|L?t Lu i^@|L? E Ai t4T*i + ThLUittit @tt4i_ tii4 |L _itUhMi |i _@|@ hi@ tL?@M*) i** i UiT| ? |i U@ti Lu |i N5c 6?*@?_ @?_ |i Nk W? |i U@ti Lu ML| 6?*@?_ @?_ |i Nk |t U@? Mi @||hM|i_ |L hi_i€?|L?t Lu |i L?i) @}}hi}@|i |@| U@ti_ t|hU|h@* Mhi@!t ? |i  i*LU |) tihit ? bHfGW @?_ bH.GW hitTiU|i*) t uLh |i N5c @ t4T*i + ThLUitt U@??L| i T*@? |i TihL_t Lu *LLti< 4L?i|@h) TL*U)G bHDcbHSc 54 Wklv. dvvxpswlrq lv glhuhqw iurp zkdw lv dvvxphg lq Fdq}rqhul dqg Ghoodv+4<<8,/ zkhuh wkh yhorflwlhv lq Hxursh duh dvvxphg wr eh wkh vxp ri wkh yhorflwlhv lq hdfk phpehu vwdwh1 Zh frqvlghu wkdw lw lv qhvvhvvdu| wr zhljkw yhorflwlhv e| vl}h wr pdnh wkh qhz djjuhjdwh frqvlvwhqw zlwk d yhorflw| ri prqh| htxdwlrq iru Hxursh1 55 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ Hxurshdq yhorflw| frxog eh frqvwuxfwhg gluhfwo| iurp wkh frxqwu|*v fdvk0lq0dgydqfh frqvwudlqwv1 Wklv zrxog lpso| wkdw wkh zhljkwv vkrxog eh wkh dprxqw ri fdvk edodqfhv lq hdfk hfrqrp|/ zklfk frxog eh sur{lhg e| wrgd|*v fdvk edodqfhv frqyhuwhg lqwr hxurv zlwk wkh hxur frqyhuwlrq udwhv1 56 Vzhghq zdv h{foxghg iurp wklv dqdo|vlv vlqfh vxlwdeoh P4 gdwd zhuh qrw dydlodeoh iru wklv frxqwu|1. 22.

(136) bbfc bbc bb2 E,# ,UL?L4U 5hi)tc N5c bH.%bHHc bb

(137)  A@! ?} ?|L @UUL?| |iti LMtih@|L?tc |hii _gihi?| _44it ihi ti_ |L ULhhiU| uLh |i Mhi@!t ? |iti tihit ,t|4@|L? hit*|t @hi hiTLh|i_ ? TTi?_ .c *i |i _@|@ t _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ S Ai 4T@U| Lu i*LU|) tLU!t L? |i it|4@|i_ ihL i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) Lu |i tiih@* ,Nt< @t U@*U*@|i_ M) tMt|||?} |i it|4@|i_ ihhLht ? i^@|L? E22 Ai hit*|t @hi t44@h3i_ ? |i ?i | |@M*i. A@M*i DG L_i* ,t|4@|it uLh |i L*@|*|) Lu |i _L**@h @?_ )i? i U@?}i h@|it @}@?t| |i Bih4@? Uhhi?U) @?_ )TL|i|U@* ,N< Uhhi?Uitc UL?t_ih?} @*tL i*LU|) tLU!t jh 2 Eee   ff | Bih4@?) Lhi Lhi:|@ ,hL3L?i ,hL:! ,hL:L|t. _L**@h 2e S

(138) f D

(139) 2 DD eHS DfS. )i? 2bS 2SDb 2SDH 2S2e 2DH2 2DH

(140). ,t|4@|L?t M@ti_ L? ,# _@|@ uLh B# @?_  Eb.ebbD. Ai h@?!?} Lu |i L*@|*|it Lu _i|tUi4@h! @?_ |i _gihi?| ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|it hi4@?t |i t@4ic i UiT| uLh |i }hLT ?@4i_ ,hL:L|t< E |i 4i4MihtT Lu #i?4@h! tLt @ TLt|i 4T@U| L? |i ihL _L**@h L*@|*|) ?_ih L?i) |@h}i| L?i|@h) ?L? @?_c ? T@h|U*@hc @ *@h}i 4L?i|@h) ?L? Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? UL?|hit tii4t |L ?Uhi@ti t|@M*|) hi*@|i*) |L |i _i|tUi4@h! Aiti hit*|t 4@) Mi hi*@|i_ |L |i €?_?}t |@| @ ,hLTi@?_i 4L?i) _i4@?_ u?U|L? @TTi@ht |L Mi 4Lhi t|@M*i |@? ?@|L?@* _i4@?_ u?U|L?t Ai hi@tL? uLh |iti i4ThU@* €?_?}t @t Mii? @||hM|i_ |L |i ?|ih?@*3@|L? Lu Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? igiU|t Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uitc |hL} @}}hi}@|L? ,hhLht ? _L4it|U 4L?i) _i4@?_ @TTi@h |L Mi ?i}@|i*) 2

(141).

(142) ULhhi*@|i_ _i |L |ih Lh}? ? Uhhi?U) tMt|||L?c *t| @}}hi}@|L? |L @ }ih *ii* ?|ih?@*3it tU tLU!t  thi) Lu |i *|ih@|hi L? @hi@_i 4L?i) _i4@?_ it|4@|L? U@? Mi uL?_ ? h|t EbbS W| _itUhMit |i 4@? UL?|hM|L?t ? |t @hi@ @?_ tLt L |i tiih@* it|4@|i_ ULiUi?|t Thiti?|i_ @hi hi@ tL?@M*) t|@M*i Mi|ii? t|_it @?_ |4i TihL_tc | ULhhiU| t}?t< @?_ T*@tM*i @*it @?_ L t|@M*i UL?|i}h@|?} i^@|L?t Lu @ hi*@|i*) t4T*i !?_ ihi uL?_2e W| t 4TLh|@?| |L hi4@h! |L} |@|c @t ?L |Ui_ M) |i @|Lhc h|@**) iih) tTiU€U@|L? _itUhMi_ ? |t thi) ?ULhTLh@|it @| @t Mii? *@Mi**i_ @ Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? |ih4< |L @U UL?| uLh tMt|||L? Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uit @?_ |i _L**@hc U @t ThLi_ |L Mi ih) 4TLh|@?| uLh |i }LL_ _@}?Lt|U TihuLh4@?Ui Lu |i i^@|L?t #thi}@h_?} |i tti Lu i|ih |i ThL it ULti? @hi @U|@**) }LL_ ThL it uLh |i Ti?L4i?@ |@| |i) @4 |L U@h@U|ih3ic |i )TL|itt |@| Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? Mi|ii? |i _L**@h @?_ |i ihL 4@) ?Uhi@ti _h@4@|U@**) | |i 4L?i|@h) ?L?c 4@!it | _U*| |L _h@ UL?U*tL?t @ML| |i t|@M*|) Lu |i t?}*i 4L?i) @}}hi}@|ic U t *!i*) |L Mi @t *?ih@M*i |L |h@?t@|*@?|U Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? tLU!t @t |i ,hLTi@? ?@|L?@* Uhhi?Uit ihi @4L?} |i4ti*it AihiuLhic i*LU|) |hi?_t 4@) U@?}i _h@4@|U@**) @u|ih @ 4L?i |@h) ?L? t uLh4i_ @?_ |i _iM@|i L? i|ih |i u|hi ,hLTi@?_i 4L?i) _i4@?_ u?U|L? 4@)Mi 4Lhi Lh *itt t|@M*i |@? |i uLh4ih ?@ |L?@* 4L?i) _i4@?_t t t|** ?hitL*i_ OLiihc |t T@Tih t}}it|t |@|c *|4@|i*)c |i 4TLh|@?Ui Lu i*LU|) tLU!t uLh |i t|@M*|) Lu |i ihL ** _iTi?_ L? |i TL*U) LT|L?t Lu |i , @?_ L? |t @M*|) |L ?t*@|i |i iUL?L4) uhL4 |i4 __|L?@**)c |i M@t hi*@|i_ |L _i@|L?t uhL4  4@) tgih uhL4 @ t|hU|h@* Mhi@!( Liihc | t T*@tM*i |L i TiU| |@| 4L?i|@h) ?€U@|L? ** hi_Ui |t 4TLh|@?Uic ?L| L?*) MiU@ti |i M@t!i| Lu }LL_t ThL_Ui_ ? ,hLTi Lih@** U@? Mi i TiU|i_ |L MiUL4i @ U*Lti tMt|||i uLh |i M@t!i| ThL_Ui_ ? |i N5c 57 Wkh frqwulexwlrqv vxuyh|hg duh=. Ehn{ dqg Wxolr +4<<3,/ Nudphuv dqg Odqh +4<<3,/ Duwlv hw do1+4<<6,/ Prqwlfhool dqg Vwudxvv0Ndkq +4<<6,/ Fdvvdug hw do1 +4<< 9,/ Wxoolr hw do1+4<<9,/ Prqwlfhool +4<<6, dqg dq dgglwlrqdo frqwulexwlrq ri wkh dxwkru1. 2e.

(143) M| @*tL MiU@tic ? |ih4t Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc | @t Mii? @?|UT@|i_ |@| ihL @tti|t tL*_ MiUL4i @t *^_ @t _L**@h Lh )i? _i?L4?@|i_ @tti|tc |L} |t )TL|itt ?ii_t uh|ih ?it|}@|L?. .. L?U*_?} +i4@h!t. hiLt t|_it |@| |hi_ |L @h}i @ML| |i L|UL4i Lu 4L?i|@h) ?L? ? |ih4t Lu i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) @i T@_ ih) *||*i @||i?|L? |L |i Mi@Lh Lu |i hi*i@?| _t|hM@?Uit @| @? @}}hi}@|i *ii* At T@Tih |hit |L @h}i |@| @}}hi}@|L?c ? |i U@ti Lu ,hLTic @U|t *!i TLh|uL *L _iht€U@|L? #i |L |i Thiti?Ui Lu @t)44i|hU tLU!t Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? iUL?L4itc @}}hi}@|L? 4@) )i*_ @? Lih@** 4Lhi t|@M*i iUL? L4) W? @__|L?c |i 4i4MihtT Lu UL?|hit |@| @i @ } TLt|i E?i}@|i Mt?itt U)U*i ULhhi*@|L? | |i N5 @?_ a@T@? L*_ @*tL UL?|hM|i |L _iUhi@ti E?Uhi@ti |i @h@M*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|ic Mi U@ti |i) 4@!i 4Li4i?|t ? |i Lih@** ,hLTi@? L|T| 4Lhi E*itt ULhhi*@|i_ | |Lti ? |i N5 @?_ a@T@? 5?Ui ThL_U||) |hi?_t @hi ?L| *!i*) |L U@?}i t}?€U@?|*) ? @?) uLhitii@M*i u|hic u |i u|hi , t @M*i |L ?t*@|i |i ,hLTi@? ,UL?L4) uhL4 i*LU|) tLU!tc |i? |t hit*| t *!i*) |L L*_ @u|ih |i uLh4@|L? Lu ,N Vi*LU|) |hi?_tc Liihc tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_ |L U@?}i _h@4@|U@**) | |i ?|hL_U |L? Lu |i ihLc tTiU@**) u |i *@||ih t |L MiUL4i @ 4@Lh ?|ih?@|L?@* Uhhi?U) *|L} | t *!i*) |@| ,hLTi@? i*LU|) 4@) Mi 4Lhi ?t|@M*i ? |i ii?| Lu ?|ih?@|L?@*3@|L?c i*LU|) tLU!t ? ,hLTi 4@) t|@h| |L MiUL4i 4Lhi ULhhi*@|i_ | |Lti ? |i N5 W? u@U|c L?Ui UL?|hit t|@h| |L L*_ @t 4U hitihit ? _L**@ht @t ? ihLtc @*@?Ui Lu @)4i?|t Uhtit ? |h_ UL?|hit ** t|@h| |L @giU| |i ihL @t 4U @t |i _L**@hc *i@?} |i ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|i ?@giU|i_ M) |i |h4L* `i|ih |i @h@?Ui Lh |i UL@h@?Ui igiU| t |i Thi_L4?@?| L?i t @ 4@||ih 2D.

(144) Lu i4ThU@* ?it|}@|L? |L Mi U@hhi_ L| i TLt| , @?|i L?i |?} U@? Mi t|@|i_G u |i , _Lit ?L| @?| @| @** |L |@!i |i ht! |@| |i ?i UL44L? Uhhi?U) ?|hL_Uit *L?}h? ?t|@M*|) ? |i t)t|i4c | tL*_ @4c | |t TL*U) ULUit @?_ i Tih|tic @| ?t*@|?} |i @}}hi}@|i ,hLTi@? iUL?L4) uhL4 i*LU|) _t|hM@?Uit. 2S.

(145) +iuihi?Uit do 3i?4@?c a EbHe RL_i*?} #i@|L?t uhL4 hU@t?} Lih @h|)c W?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4U +iic 2Dc .Db d2o h|tc  EbbS Rhhi?U) 5Mt|||L? ? ,hLTi@? 6?@?U@* @h !i|tc ? 3i?c @* EbbS Ai @UhLiUL?L4Ut Lu W?|ih?@|L?@* hhi?UitG AiLh)c L*U) @?_ ,_i?Uic T

(146) bDe d

(147) o ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚ic c LL?c  @?_ t@?6ihh)c aEbb.c Ai ,hL @?_ , U@}i +@|i 5|@M*|)c ,WWc #LU4i?| _i Ah@@* b.2 deo ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚ic c LL?c EbbHc R,N @?_ Ah@?t@|*@?|U ,  U@?}i +@|i 5|@M*|)c ,WWc #LU4i?| _i Ah@@* bHf2 dDo @?3L?ihc  @?_ #i**@tc O EbbDcRL?i|@h) W?|i}h@|L? ? , hLTiG W4T*U@|L?t uLh +i@* W?|ihit| +@|itc @|L?@* 5|LU! @h!i|t @?_ |i VL*@|*|it Lu hUit @?_ , U@?}i +@|itc @|L*U N? iht|) Lu wii?c W?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4Ut +iti@U @Tih S dSo Li?c # Ebb.c ROL ** Ai ,hL i@iqc ,+ S.

(148)  d.o ,N W?t|||i EbbDc W?|ih?@|L?@* hhi?U) L4Ti||L? @?_ |i 6|hi +L*i Lu |i 5?}*i ,hLTi@? hhi?U)c k*ih w@ W?|ih?@ |L?@* dHo #@|)@?c  @?_ TTi?}ihc a Ebbf RAit|?} hU@t?} Lih @h|)G 5L4i ,_i?Ui Lu |i ,giU|t Lu Ah@?t@U|L? Lt|tc ,UL?L 4i|hU +iitc bE2c 22ef dbo #iML*_c 6 @?_ @h@?Lc + EbbDc RL4T@h?} hi_U|i UU h@U)c aLh?@* Lu t?itt @?_ ,UL?L4U 5|@|t|Utc VL* 

(149) c L

(150) c T 2D

(151) 2S

(152)  dfo # |c  EbHbc R,?|h) @?_ , | #iUtL?t N?_ih N?Uih|@?|)c a  , b. do kh}4@?c  EbHb@c , U@?}i +@|i W?t|@M*|)c WA hitt 2..

(153) d2o kh}4@?c  EbHbMc RAi @ti uLh 5|@M*t?} , U@?}i +@|itc  uLh_ +ii Lu ,UL?L4U L*U) D d

(154) o O@h|4@??c  EbbSc RAh@_?} VL*4it @?_ Ah@?t@U|L?t Lt|t ? |i 6Lhi}? , U@?}i @h!i|% ,_i?Ui uhL4 #L**@hvi? 5TL| #@|@c w5, 6?@U@* @h!i|t BhLTc #tUttL? @Tih 5ihit 2

(155) 2 deo O@h|4@??c  Ebb.c R#L +i|iht 5Thi@_t +iiU| hhi?Uit< #u uihi?Uit ? B*LM@* Ah@_?} U||)qc w5, 6?@U@* @h!i|t BhLTc #tUttL? @Tih 5ihit 2SD dDo Wt@h_c  @?_ +UUc w EbbHc R,Nc _t|4i?|c @?_ , U@?}i +@|i V@h@M*|)c W6c `%bH%Df dSo @h|?Ebb.c RAi , U@?}i +@|i L*U) Lu |i ,hLG @ @||ih Lu 53iqc ,+c _tUttL? T@Tih SeS d.o @ttL?c  @?_ Ah|i*MLL4c  Ebb. RAi @h@U|iht|Ut Lu |i ,hLc |i #i4@?_ uLh +itihitc @?_ L*U) LLh_?@|L? N?_ih ,Nc ? khi}ihc Ac @ttL?c  @?_ Ah|i*MLL4c  Ebb.c ,N @?_ |i W?|ih?@|L?@* L?i|@h) 5)t|i4c T be22ec W6 dHo Uk??L?c + EbbSc Ai +*it Lu |i B@4ic WA hitt dbo ,# ,UL?L4U 5hi)t d2fo @?Ltc c LM@)c  @?_ ii* # Ebb.c RAh@?t@U|L?t Lt|t @?_ L?*?i@h _t|4i?|t ? |i +i@* , U@?}i +@|itc aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c bb.c L* fDc ?e d2o Lh|itc + @?_ +i)c O EbbHc RAi ,4ih}i?Ui Lu |i ,hL @t @? W?|ih?@|L?@* hhi?U)c ,UL?L4U L*U)c L 2Sc

(156) f.

(157) e

(158) c Th* bbH d22o +i)c O Ebb.c RW?|ih?@|L?@* Ah@_i @?_ hhi?U) , U@?}ic i? |hi uLh ,UL?L4U ihuLh4@?Uic #tUttL? @Tih

(159) 22c w5,. 2H.

(160) TTi?_  G @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t ,t|4@|it2D. A@M*i G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh hL_U||) #iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f| S N5. f. Eff. Bih4@?) 6h@?Ui. Nk. f2

(161). EffS. f22. Effb. ffD. EfD. W|@*). fH. EffD. -2. *? f|3. 7... fbH. 2bI. bbI Df. fbD. 2

(162) I. bbI bf. fbS. HI. bbI .b. fbb. 2HI. bbI 

(163) e. fb..

(164) DI. bbI 2eS. Eff2 Eff EfffH. Eff2. Eff. (`. @ti_ L? _@|@ uLh 5L*L +it_@*tc bSfbbf EB*U! @?_ +L}Lg bb

(165) . A@M*i 2G V@h@?UiL@h@?Ui @|h Lu hL_U||) 5LU!t JE0|n c 0|n   ff N5 Bih 6h@ Nk W|@ ,h. N5 Bih 6h@ ffHf ff2S ff ffD ff22 ff

(166) f. Nk ffD ff2S ff2

(167) ff.. 58 Fdq}rqhul dqg Ghoodv +4<<8,/ s156/ Wdeohv 4 dqg 51. 2b. W|@ ff2

(168) ff

(169) f ffH ffb f

(170). ,h  ff

(171) e ff2

(172) ff

(173)

(174) ffe ffD.

(175) TTi?_ 2 G |T| @?_ , U@?}i +@|it #@|@ #i. tUhT|L?. Ai €ht| _gihi?Uit Lu |i _@|@ UL?t|hU|i_ uLh |i N5c a@T@? @?_ |i i*ii? ,N UL?|hit ?U*_i_ ? |i 4L_i* t tL? ? 6}hi c *i |i _@|@ uLh |i ,N UL?|hit i U*_i_ uhL4 |i 4L_i* Ew i4MLh}c i*}4c 5T@? @?_ BhiiUi t tL? ? 6}hi 2. 6}hi G 6ht| #gihi?Uit ? +i@* B# 5ihit uLh |i N5c a@T@? @?_  ,N UL?|hit  L?t|hU|i_ uhL4 ,# 5ihit.

(176) f.

(177) 6}hi 2G 6ht| #gihi?Uit ? +i@* B# 5ihit uLh i*}4c w i4MLh}c 5T@? @?_ BhiiUi  L?t|hU|i_ uhL4 ,# 5ihit. Ai B# _@|@ @t UL?t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu ^@h|ih*) ti@tL?@**) @_t|i_ LMtih@|L?t Lu B# ?L4?@* _@|@ _i?L4?@|i_ ? |i L4i Uhhi?U) Ai B# _i@|Lh | M@ti ? bbf @t ti_ |L LM|@? B# @| UL?t|@?| ThUit Lu bbf Ai _@|@ @t UL?ih|i_ ?|L _L**@ht @| |i bbf  UL?ihtL? h@|it ??@* _@|@ hiuiht |L |i t4 Lu ^@h |ih*) _@|@ ** _@|@ @t LM|@?i_ uhL4 |i ,# @|L?@* UUL?|t t|@|t|Ut #@|@ L? _L**@h ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|it UL?tt|t L? _L**@ht Tih ?@|L?@* Uhhi?U)c @t hiTLh|i_ M) |i ,#.

(178) .

(179) TTi?_

(180) G B# ,t|4@|it uLh @?3L?ih i| @*EbbD. 5Mti| Lu L?|hit @?_ 5@4T*i ihL_. A@M*i 

(181) G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh |T| #iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f| S N5. f2.. Efe. Bih4@?) 6h@?Ui. Nk. f2

(182). Ef2. f

(183) S. Effb. f. EfD. W|@*). f

(184) D. EffH. -2. *? f|3. 7... fbH. eI. bbI S.. fb.. 2I. bbI eH. fbS. feI. bbI eb. fbb. fbI. bbI D. fbS. fI. bbI bf. Eff Eff2 Eff. Eff2. Eff. (`. @ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh +i@* B#c bSfbbfc _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ 2. A@M*i 

(185) 2G V@h@?UiL@h@?Ui @|h Lu hL_U||) 5LU!t JE0|n c 0|n   ff N5 Bih 6h@ Nk W|@ ,h. N5 Bih 6h@ ffeH ff2 fff. ffef ff. ffS.

(186) 2. Nk ff2S ffH ff ffe2. W|@ ,h fffH ffS ffD  ff

(187)  ff  ff

(188) D  ff2f.

(189) TTi?_ e G B# ,t|4@|it uLh N5c a@T@? @?_ . ,N L?|hit Eb.ebD "@h|ih*). A@M*i eG 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh |T| 5TiU€U@|L?  #iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f| -2 ' bbI S N5 a@T Bih 6h@ t i| W|@ 6? Whi Lh Nk #i? 5i. *? f|3. (}e6. 7... (`. -3H. Jo6. ff

(190). fbb.. . f.I. 

(191) 2. He. 2H.88. ffS. fbb

(192). . feI. HH. e. f

(193)

(194). ff. fbbb EfffS. Eff. ffb. f

(195) I. ee.

(196) .288. D2. ffe. fbbD. . feI. bf. fHe. 2D.88. ff. fbbb. . fSI. bf. 2fS8. D.f. ff

(197). fff. . f.I. 2D2. 2f2. eH2S88. ffH. fbbb. . fDI. fb2. ebf88. .f88. ffS. fbH.. . bI. H. 2f2. S2. ff. ffH. . fI. Df. 2fS8. fe. ff. fbbb. . 

(198) I. Sf. 2f8.

(199) .. ff. fbbb. . fHI. H. .

(200). .b88. ff2. fbbS. . 2I. 2fS. 2. fHD. ff. fbH. . I. 2DS. .2. Deb. EffD Eff2 Eff

(201)  Effe Eff

(202)  Effe Effe EffD EfD Eff

(203)  EffD EffD EffD. EfffS Efff

(204) . EfffD Efff. Efffb EfffS Efff EfffD Efff. EfffH Efff Eff. Edvhg rq wkh RHFG gdwd iru Uhdo JGS/ 4<:7 04<<8/. ghvfulehg lq Dsshqgl{ 5> --Uhmhfwlrq dw 43( vljqlfdqfh> -Uhmhfwlrq dw 8(1. Ai hit*|t Lu 5TiU€U@|L? < EA@M*i e tL |@| tL4i i^@ |L?t @hi ?L| i** tTiU€i_ | @ t4T*i + Lt| hi}hittL?t tL

(205)

(206).

(207) @|LULhhi*@|L? @?_ tL4i tL ?L??Lh4@*|) Aiti ThLM*i4t @hi ULh hiU|i_ ? |i €?@* tTiU€U@|L? hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i e2c | |i ?|hL _U|L? tiih@* _44) @h@M*it |L @UUL?| uLh _t|hM@?Uit |@| |i 4L_i* U@??L| i T*@? Ai €ht| @hi |Lti U@ti_ M) |i _iiT hiUittL?t ? Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic W|@*) @?_ Lh|}@* @u|ih |i €ht| L* tLU! E(U7 Ai b.eb.D hiUittL? @t t@hTih ? |iti UL?|hit |@? }i?ih@**) i*tiihi W? Bih4@?) |i u@U| @t _i |L |i t@hT u@** ? |i i TLh| L*4i *?!i_ | |i u@U| |@| |i Bih4@? iUL?L4) @t i@*) _i Ti?_i?| L? i TLh| _i4@?_c *i ? 6h@?Ui | @t |i 4@h!i_ u@** ? Th@|i ?it|4i?|c ? |i uLh| ^@h|ih Lu b.ec |@| _i|ih4?i_ |i TLLh TihuLh4@?Ui Lu B# ? |@| ^@h|ih @?_ |i ?i | W? W|@*) |i _i*@)i_ M| @t hiUittL? @t U@ti_ M) |i UL4M?@|L? Lu @ t*L_L? ? _i4@?_ | |}| iUL?L4U TL*Uit ?|hL_Ui_ ? |i i?_ Lu .ec ? U*_?} tMt|@?|@* |@ ?Uhi@tit @?_ }ih ?|ihit| h@|itc ?|hL_Ui_ |L hiuh@? |i i T@?tL?@h) |hi?_ |@| |i iUL?L4) @t i Tihi?U?} i? |i €ht| L* tLU! MhL!i ?*) i? |i _iiTit| hiUittL? i Tihi?Ui_ M) |i UL?|h) t?Ui |i i@h*) bDf<t @t @*hi@_) Mi?} ui*| __ |i W|@* @? @|Lh|it tu| |i iUL?L4U TL*U) t uLh Lh|}@*c |i TLt| €ht| L* tLU! hiUittL? @t _iiTi?i_ M) |i |h@?tuLh4@|L? Lu |i UL?|h)<t TL*|U@* ?t|||L?t ? |i @u|ih4@| Lu |i Th* .e hiL*|L?c i? |i iUL?L4) @_ |L UL?|i?_ | ?@|L?@*3@|L?tc UL**iU|3@|L?t @?_ t|h!itc | |i *Ltt Lu |i UL*L?it @t @ tLhUi Lu UiiT h@ 4@|ih@* @?_ | |i hi|h? L Lu Lh|}iti ?@|L?@*t uhL4 ?}L*@ @?_ L3@4 M^i *tL |i igiU|t Lu |i tiUL?_ L* tLU! ? |i N5c Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic |i i|ih*@?_tc W|@*) @?_ |i Nk U@??L| Mi i T*@?i_ M) |i t4 T*i + ThLUitt @?_ @_ |L Mi @UUL?|i_ uLh | @ _44) @h@M*i E(UU7 __|L?@**)c @?L|ih _44) @h@M*i @t ?|hL_Ui_ |L i  T*@? |i Mi@Lh Lu |i t|h@? B# }hL| ? |i Mi}???} Lu b.H E(@r W? |t iUL?L4)c |i ThLh @??L?Ui4i?| Lu VA ?Uhi@tit @?_ 4L_€U@|L?t ? _iThiU@|L? h*it ? 4_ b.. |L Mi @TT*i_ ? b.Hc *i_ |L UL?t_ih@M*i @_@?Ui ThU@tit ? |i *@t| ^@h|iht Lu |@| )i@h At @t UL4M?i_ | TLt|TL?i4i?| Lu ?it|4i?| tTi?_?} U@ti_ M) |i @??L?Ui4i?| Lu @ ?i 6i_ih@* W?it|4i?| hL}h@4 ? a@?@h)

(208) e.

(209) Lu |i t@4i )i@h @?_ hit*|i_ ? @ ih) _iThitti_ B# }hL| uLh |i Mi}???} Lu b.H Ai tu| ? |i |hi?_ U@ti_ M) |i Wht MLL4 @*tL @_ |L Mi @UUL?|i_ uLh | _44) @h@M*it E (oe2S. A@M*i e2G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh |T|  6?@* 5TiU€U@|L? #iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f| -2 ' bbI S. N5 a@T Bih t 6h@ i| W|@ 6? Whi Lh Nk #i? 5i. *? f|3. (}e6. ff2. fbbH. . . ffD. fbb

(210). . . ff2. fbbH Efffe. Eff. ff.. fbbb. ff2e. ffe. fbHb. . ff. fbbb. . ffD. fbb2. . ffS. fbHH. . ff. fbb.. ff2. fbbe. ff. Effe Eff2 Eff2 Eff2 Eff

(211)  Eff

(212)  Eff2. EfffD Efff

(213) . EfffS EfffD Efff. Efffe. @r oe. ffb. EfffS. (U7. (UU7. 7... (`. ffS fSI eD Efffe. . feI HH. ffH ffH feI DS Efffe. EfffD. . . fSI bf. ffb ffS f

(214) I .e Efffe. . EfffS. ff

(215) . f.I 2

(216) . Efffe. ffH ffe f

(217) I eb Efff

(218) . Efff

(219) . . bI H. ff2. . . fI D.. . ff2S. . I .D. fbbb. . . ff. f.I Hf. ff2. fbbe. . . ff

(220)  I 2. ff.. fbHe. . . ffe2 2I 22H. EffD Eff Eff2 Effe Eff

(221)  EffD. Efff EfffD Efff. Efff. Efff Eff2. EfffD. . Efffb. Efff. Eff2 Eff2. @ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh +i@* B#c b.ebbDc _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ 2 59 RHFG. Hfrqrplf Vxuyh|v1.

(222) D.

(223) W? |t €?@* tTiU€U@|L? @** i^@|L?t T@tt |i TLh|4@?|i@< @ |LULhhi*@|L? |it| | H *@}t @?_ |i 2 ?Lh4@*|) |i | @| |i f TihUi?| t}?€U@?Ui *ii* i UiT| uLh |i Bih4@? i^@|L? U t@|t€it |i ?Lh 4@*|) |it| @| |i f TihUi?| t}?€U@?Ui *ii* M| |i @|LULhhi*@|L? |it| L?*) @| |i D TihUi?| t}?€U@?Ui *ii*  _44) uLh |i tiUL?_ L* tLU! @t ?L| t}?€U@?| uLh a@T@?c t|h@c 6?*@?_c Whi*@?_ @?_ Lh|}@*. A@M*i e

(224) G V@h@?UiL@h@?Ui @|h Lu hL_U||) 5LU!t JE0|n c 0|n   fff V@h Bih t 6h@ i| W|@ 6? Whi Lh N! #i? 5i. ffeD ff. ff

(225)

(226) ffH

(227) ff

(228) S f22e ff feS ffHH f

(229) 2 f

(230) .. Bih. L Nt.  ff2D ffb ff2f ff

(231) fff

(232) fffb ffS fff

(233) ffS fffb. fffb fffS fffe fffD fffD fff. fff ff2 fffD fffH fffe fff fffe fffH fffb ff. ffe fffD ff

(234) f fffH fff fffD. a@T. T @oEL7 ffff'ff.e ( T @oEa@Rffff'ffe2.

(235) S.

(236) TTi?_ D G +@?!?} 5}?€U@?Ui Ait|t uLh ,t|4@|it. ?_ih L4?@* W?UL4i A@h}i|?}. 5}?€U@?Ui Ait|t uLh |i h@?!?} Lu L*@|*|it ihi UL?t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu |i |it|t uLh h@?!?} uLhiU@t|?} ihhLht _ii*LTi_ M) #iML*_ @?_ @h@?L EbbD ?) |L L*@|*|) @*it ihi UL?t_ihi_ |L Mi t|@ |t|U@**) _gihi?| i?iih |i |L tihit Lu ,hLTi@?< L|T| tLU!t |@| }i?ih@|i_ i@U Lu |i4 ihi uL?_ |L Mi t|@|t|U@**) _gihi?| , hLTi@?< L|T| tLU!t< tihit ihi it|4@|i_ @UULh_?} |L i^@|L? EHc t?} |i hit*|t Lu |i €?@* tTiU€U@|L? hiTLh|i_ ? TTi?_ e Oihi 4Lt|*) |i t}?€U@?Ui Lu @?) |L UL?tiU|i L*@|*|) @*it @t |it|i_ uLhc M| @ |it| L? |i t}?€U@?Ui Lu |i h@?!?} Mi|ii? |i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihL i U@?}i h@|it Lu |i ,hL3L?i< @?_ |i ,hL:L|t< @t @*tL ?U*_i_ Ai hit*|t @hi hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i D Aiti |it|tc |L} 4t| Mi *LL!i_ @| | tL4i hitih@|L? t?Ui |i) ihi uL?_ |L @i @ }ih Ti@! @hL?_ |ih 4i@? Lu 3ihL |@? @ ?Lh4@* _t|hM|L? L*_ @i A@M*i DG +@?!?} Ait|t EL4?@* W?UL4i A@h}i|?}  6?@* 5TiU€U@|L?  Ait|t. ULt|@?|. Bih4@?) t Lhi Lhi t Lhi:|@ Lhi:|@ t ,hL3L?i ,hL3L?i t ,hL:! ,hL:! t ,hL:L|t ,hL3L?i t ,hL:L|t. .f.  fD e2S.  fS HSf.  f. ...  fS f

(237) .  fS 2Hf.  fS. |@*i #`

(238) S

(239) 2SS 2ff fH 2ff S2. SS Hb b. Db 222 SS. +it*|t t}}it| |@| |i it|4@|it uLh |i ihL L*@|*|it Lu |i Lhi U@? Mi UL?t_ihi_ t}?€U@?|*) _gihi?| |@? |Lti it|4@|i_ uLh |i _i|tUi4@h!c t?Ui |i |@*i uLh |i UL?t|@?| |ih4 t } 54*@h*)c @__?} W|@*) |L |i Lhi |L uLh4 Lhi:|@< Lh @__?} 6?*@?_c Whi*@?_ @?_ Lh|}@* |L |i Lhi:|@< |L uLh4 |i ,hL3L?i< tii4t |L @i @ t}?€U@?| 4T@U| L? |i L*@|*|) it|4@|it At @*tL @TT*it |L @__?}

(240) ..

(241) 5i_i? @?_ #i?4@h! |L |i }hLT Lu ,hL:!< __?} |i Nk _Lit ?L| tii4 |L @i @ t}?€U@?| 4T@U|c @*|L}c _i |L |i ?L??Lh4@*|) Lu |i |it|c hiiU|?} @?) t}?€U@?Ui hi^hit |i ?it|}@|L? Lu |i @TThLTh@|i Uh|U@* @*it U @hi *!i*) |L Mi *Lih |@? 2. TTi?_ SG Vi*LU|) #@|@ #itUhT|L? 6}hi

(242) G 6ht| #gihi?Uit ?  Vi*LU|) 5ihit uLh |i N5c a@T@? @?_ ,hLTi  L?t|hU|i_ uhL4 ,# 5ihit. Ai i*LU|) _@|@ @t UL?t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu ^@h|ih*) ti@tL? @**) @_t|i_ LMtih@|L?t uLh c LM|@?i_ uhL4 |i ,# _@|@M@ti ** tihit ihi @*hi@_) ti@tL?@**) @_t|i_c i UiT| uLh |i Nk Ai Nk

(243) H.

(244) 4L?i) tihit @t @_t|i_ uLh ti@tL?@*|) | |i 4i|L_ Lu @ih@}i _i@|L?t uhL4 |i |hi?_c |@!?} ?|L @UUL?| |i Mhi@! ? bH. Ai €ht| _gihi?Uit Lu |i tihit UL?t|hU|i_ @hi tL? ? 6}hi

(245) . TTi?_ . G Vi*LU|) ,t|4@|it uLh N5c a@T@? @?_.  ,N UL?|hit  b.ebbD "@h|ih*) #@|@. A@M*i .G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh Vi*LU|) #iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? T| S N5 a@T Bih t 6h@ i| W|@ 6? Whi Lh Nk #i?. (&. 7... -2. (`. . . 2I. b.I. S. . . . D

(246) I. HeI. ... . . . feI. bbI. Hb. D2I. b2I Sb. *? T|3. (r@. (s?. f.. fbSH. fb.. f

(247) . fb

(248) f. ffH. fbH

(249). Effb Efb Eff. f.. EfD. Eff. Effee Eff2. fbSD Eff

(250) f. Efff

(251) . . . . fbHD. . . . 2eI. bHI. 22

(252). f. fb.S. . . . SbI. b

(253) I. 2.. fS. fbS

(254). . . .

(255) 

(256) I. bSI. S. f22. fbbe. . f

(257) ef. . 2I. bDI. 2e

(258). f2D. fbDe. . . . S.I. b.I. Hb. f.. fbSe. . . . bHI. bHI. H

(259). ff2. fbbH. . . fS

(260). SbI. bHI. HD. ffS. fbHS. . . . DDI. bHI. SD. ff.. Eff. Ef

(261)  Effb Ef Effb Eff. Eff

(262) . EffD Eff2b Eff2f Eff2b EffH EffS EffS. Effef. Eff

(263) . EffS Effe @ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh +i@* B#c b.ebbDc _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ 2.

(264) b.

(265) TTi?_ H G +@?!?} 5}?€U@?Ui Ait|t uLh ,t|4@|it. ?_ih L?i) A@h}i|?}. A@M*i HG +@?!?} Ait|t EL?i) A@h}i|?}  6?@* 5TiU€U@|L?  Ait|t. ULt|@?|. Bih4@?) t Lhi 2fS.  fe Lhi t Lhi:|@

(266) fS.  fD Lhi:|@ t ,hL3L?i .be.  fS ,hL3L?i t ,hL:! Sf2.  fS ,hL:! t ,hL:L|t 2Db.  fS ,hL3L?i t ,hL:L|t 2Hf.  fS. |@*i #`

(267)  2H2 2DD f2H 2Hf S2. b

(268) b. He 2H b2 SS. TTi?_ bG Ai _}i| L?t|h@?| W? Lh_ih |L tL*i uLh €ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?tc | t i@tih |L hih|i |i M_}i| UL?t|h@?|G d

(269) 3 n #

(270) 3 R

(271) 3 t

(272) 3  R

(273) 3 S

(274) 3 o E n 

(275) n ne

(276) 3 d

(277) 3 n #

(278) 3 R

(279) 3 t

(280) 3  R

(281) 3 S

(282) 3 o E n 

(283) n ne&

(284) 3 d&

(285) 3 n #&

(286) 3 R&

(287) 3 t&

(288) 3  R&

(289) 3 S&

(290) 3 o E n &

(291) n n dE n 

(292) 3 

(293) 3 n E  #

(294) 3 R

(295) 3 t

(296) 3 n A

(297) o E n 

(298)  ne

(299) dE n 

(300) 3 

(301) 3 n E  #

(302) 3 R

(303) 3 t

(304) 3 n A

(305) o E n 

(306)  ne&

(307) dE n &

(308) 3 &

(309) 3 n E  #&

(310) 3 R&

Riferimenti

Documenti correlati

albopictusDEXQGDQFHRQWKHEDVLVRIGDWDIURPVHDVRQDO URXQGPRQLWRULQJFDUULHGRXWRYHUPXOWLSOH\HDUVDFURVVDQGEH\RQGWKHXUEDQDUHDRI5RPHDQG %DUL$ILQHVFDOH

Auvergne, CNRS, Sigma-Clermont, Institut de Chimie de Clermont-Ferrand / (ICCF), 63000 Clermont- Ferrand, France / (2) Université Clermont Auvergne, Plateforme d’exploration

7KH PDLQ HQHUJ\ HIIHFWV UHODWHG WR WKH YHJHWDO OD\HU DUH LQKHUHQW WR WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI URRILQJ LQ VXPPHU DV WKH\ UHODWH WR WKH WKHUPDO LQHUWLD JXDUDQWHHG

Lq wklv sdshu zh suhvhqw vrph prghov ri edujdlqlqj zlwk elodwhudo ghohjdwlrq1 Wkh dlp ri wklv zrun lv wr suhvhqw/ ghqh/ vroyh dqg frpphqw glhuhqw ghoh0 jdwlrq jdphv dprqj

importante documento venne coinvolta direttamente la Penitenzieria Apostolica, sia nella parte dottrinale, che è la più corposa, quanto in quella normativa. La costituzione è

Although SZAFER (1961) suggested that two species occurred in the Neogene of Europe, the distinction was only based on fruit size, and TRALAU (1963) reported that fruit size

La posizione paleogeografica di questa unit5 'e ccinterna,, rispetto all'Unit8 Alburno-Cervati; essa rappresenta il margine ((internox della Piattaforma Campano-Lucana