Ecoclimatic drivers of spatio-temporal hot spots of Aedes albopictus abundance in south European urban areas

ƉĂŐ͘ϭ

ƉĂŐ͘ϴϵ

(&2&/,0$7,& '5,9(56 2) 63$7,27(0325$/ +27 63276 2) AEDES

ALBOPICTUS $%81'$1&(,16287+(8523($185%$1$5($6



0DWWLD 0DQLFD_{ )HGHULFR )LOLSSRQL}_{ 5REHUWR 5RVj}_{ 0DUNXV 1HWHOHU}_{ $QJHOR 6ROLPLQL}_ $OHVVDQGUD GHOOD 7RUUH_{ 5LFFDUGR 3DROR /LD}_{ &RUUDGR 6LDQR}_{ 'RPHQLFR 2WUDQWR}_ %HQLDPLQR&DSXWR



_{Dipartimento di Sanità Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Università di Roma “Sapienza”, Piazzale}

Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy

_{Dipartimento di Biodiversità ed Ecologia Molecolare, Centro Ricerca e Innovazione, Fondazione}

Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, TN, Italy

3_{Dipartimento di Medicina Veterinaria, Università degli Studi di Bari, Italy}

 7KHVWDEOHFRORQL]DWLRQE\Aedes albopictus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e. albopictusDEXQGDQFHRQWKHEDVLVRIGDWDIURPVHDVRQDO URXQGPRQLWRULQJFDUULHGRXWRYHUPXOWLSOH\HDUVDFURVVDQGEH\RQGWKHXUEDQDUHDRI5RPHDQG %DUL$ILQHVFDOHPUDGLXVVSDWLRWHPSRUDOGDWDVHWZDVEXLOWZLWKLQHDFKVDPSOLQJVLWHDQG H[SORLWHG WR DQDO\VH WKH HIIHFW RI FOLPDWLF /DQG 6XUIDFH 7HPSHUDWXUH 'DLO\ 5DLQIDOO *URZLQJ 'HJUHH'D\VHQYLURQPHQWDO/DQG&RYHUDVUHWULHYHGIURPGLJLWDOPXOWLVSHFWUDODHULDOLPDJHU\ DQG GHPRJUDSKLF KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ YDULDEOHV RQ Ae. albopictus VSDWLDO DEXQGDQFH DQG WHPSRUDOG\QDPLFV*HQHUDOL]HGDGGLWLYHPL[HGPRGHOVKLJKOLJKWHGDVWURQJSRVLWLYHUHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQPRVTXLWRDEXQGDQFHDQGDQWKURSLFVXUIDFHVDQGSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\DQGLGHQWLILHGFOLPDWLF GULYHUVRIWKHVHDVRQDOSRSXODWLRQG\QDPLFV7KHVHUHVXOWVSURYLGHXVHIXOLQGLFDWLRQVWRSULRULWL]H SXEOLFPRVTXLWRFRQWUROPHDVXUHVLQWHPSHUDWHXUEDQDUHDVLQVSDFHDQGWLPHIRUDPRUHIHDVLEOH DQGFRVWHIILFLHQWSUHYHQWLRQRIWKHULVNDUERYLUXVWUDQVPLVVLRQLQ(XURSH