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The problem of water in Libya at the present Time

and in the future

BY

JAMAL ALI MOHANED EHDADAN

PH.D. THESIS

Agriculture, Food and Environment

Department of Agriculture, Food and Environment

University of Pisa

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The problem of water in Libya at the present Time and in future

BY

JAMAL ALI MOHAMED EHDADAN

A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor

of Philosophy in Agriculture, Food and Environment

Candidate: Supervisor(s)

Prof. Name Surname Prof. Name Surname

Accepted by the Ph.D School The Coordinator

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I

Table of context

ABSTRACT ... VI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ... IX

CHAPTER 1 - GENERAL INTRODUCTION... 1

1.0.0. General Introduction ... 1

1.0.1 Problem Statement ... 5

1.0.2 The main issues to be studied are ... 11

1.0.3 The aims of the study are ... 12

1.0.4 Organization of the thesis ... 13

1.1.0 Literature Review ... 17

CHAPTER 2 -THE PROBLEM OF WATER IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA ... 24

2.0.0. The Problem of Water in the Mediterranean Area ... 24

2.0.1 The population growth ... 26

2.0.2 Climate change ... 30

2.0.3 Tourism sector ... 34

2.0.4 Use the water by sectors (big different between north and south basin ... 40

2.0.5 Irrigation and agricultural water use ... 41

2.0.6 The division of the Mediterranean according to demand of the water ... 42

CHAPTER 3 - THE PROBLEM OF WATER IN LIBYA AND ITS IMPACT ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN LIBYA ... 47

3.0.0 General Introduction ... 47

3.0.1 Water problem in Libya ... 49

3.0.2 Summarize of the water problem in Libya ... 59

3.1.0 The Libyan Economic (Libya Before discovery oil) ... 60

3.1.1 After the Discovery of Oil ... 62

3.1.2 Agricultural Development Planning in Libya: A Historical Overview ... 63

3.1.3 The Roman Period ... 63

3.1.4 The Arab Period ... 64

3.1.5 The Ottoman Period (1551–1911) ... 65

3.1.6 The Italian Colonization (1911–1943) ... 65

3.1.7 The British-French Military Administration (1943–1951) ... 66

3.1.8 Agricultural Development Plans (1952–1969) ... 66

3.1.9 Agricultural Development Planning (1969–1972) ... 66

3.1.10 The First Agricultural Policies Approach in The Form of Medium-Term Plans (1973–1985) ... 67

3.1.11 Three-Year Plan (1973-1975) ... 68

3.1.12 Five-Year Plan (1976–1980). ... 70

3.1.13 Agricultural policy second five-year plan (1981–1985) ... 72

3.1.14 The second agricultural policies approach in the form of annual plans (1986-2007). ... 74

CHAPTER 4 - WATER RESOURCES IN LIBYA ... 81

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II

4.0.1 Climate: ... 82

4.0.2 Population ... 83

4.0.3 Language ... 85

4.0.4 Religion ... 85

4.1.0. Water resources in Libya ... 86

4.1.1 General Introduction. ... 88

4.1.2 Water resources In Libya ... 90

4.1.3 Surface water ... 90

4.1.4 Groundwater ... 92

4.2.0 Non-conventional water resources ... 93

4.2.1 Desalination ... 95

4.2.2 Wastewater ... 96

4.2.3 Typologies of Wastewater ... 97

4.3.0 - Great Manmade River Project. ... 100

4.3.1 General Introduction ... 100

4.3.2 The GMMRP water uses ... 102

4.3.3 This project has been divided into five phases. ... 103

CHAPTER 5 - METHOD AND ANALYSIS ... 107

5.0.0 General introduction time series Definition ... 107

5.1.0 Types of Stationary Series. ... 108

5.1.1 Strictly Stationary. ... 108

5.1.2 Weakly Stationary ... 108

5.2.0 Typs of tests unit root ... 109

5.2.1 Dickey-Fuller Test Unit root ... 109

5.2.2 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test ... 110

5.2.3 KPSS Kwiatkowski ... 110

5.3.0 Testing for Stationarity... 112

5.3.1 Checking Stationary for Domestic Water. ... 113

5.3.2 Checking Stationary for Industrial Water Use ... 114

5.4.0 ARDL Model OR Bound Test Autoregressive distributed log model ... 115

5.4.1 Estimated Agricultural Water Use Using ARDL Model. ... 117

5.4.2 Estimating Domestic Water Use Using ARDL Model. ... 119

5.4.3 Estimating Industrial Water Use Using ARDL Model. ... 122

5.5.0 Estimation and Forecasting Using Box-Jenkins Modelling ... 124

5.5.1 ARIMA Forecasting Models. ... 125

5.5.2 Estimation of The Arima Model ... 125

5.5.3 The Fitting Arima Model for Domestic Water. ... 127

5.5.4 The fitting ARIMA Model for Industrial Water. ... 129

5.6.0 The Results of Forecasting Water Demand From (2014–2050). ... 131

CHAPTER 6 - CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION ... 136

6.0.0 Conclusions ... 136

6.0.1 Recommendation ... 141

6.1.0 APPENDICES ... 145

6.1.1 ESTIMATED AGRICULTURAL WATER USE USING ARDL MODEL. ... 145

Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey ... 147

6.1.2 ARDL Long Run Form and Bounds Test for Agricultural water ... 148

6.1.3 ESTIMATING DOMESTIC WATER USE USING ARDL MODEL. ... 149

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6.1.5 ARDL Long Run from and Bounds Test in industry water ... 157 6.1.6.Author’s CV ... 159

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IV

Index Figures

Figure (1) Urban population in the Mediterranean Area 27

Figure (2) Annual rainfall distribution in the Mediterranean Basin 30

Figure (3) Mediterranean demographic trends until 2050 33

Figure (4) water uses in the Mediterranean region (in %) 41

Figure (5) Map of Libya 49

Figure (6) Food self – Sufficiency in Libya compared to other Arab countries (AOAD, 2001) 54

Figure (7) Map of Libya 82

Figure (8 ) A map showing the distribution of tribes in Libya 85

Figure (9) water resources 88

Figure (10) surface water in Libya 91

Figure (11) water withdrawal by source 91

Figure (12) usage of water from the GMMRP 103

Figure(13) Phases of GMMRP project 104

Figure (14): The original time series in logarithm for agricultural water use 113 Figure (15) The original time series in logarithm for Domestic water use 113 Figure (16): The original time series in logarithm for Industrial water use 114

Figure (17): Residual Normal Distribution Test 118

Figure (18): Stability (cusum) Test 119

Figure (19): Stability Test (Cusum Of Squares Test). 119

Figure (20): Residual Normal Distribution Test: 121

Figure (21): Stability Test (Cusum) 121

Figure (22): Stability Test (Cusum of Squares Test) 122

Figure (23): Residual Normal distribution test 124

Figure: (24) Stability Test (Cusum of Squares Test). 126

Figure (25): Actual and Forecast for Agricultural Water Use 126

Figure (26): ARMA Forecast Graph 127

Figure (27): Akaike Criteria Graph 128

Figure (28): Actual and Forecast Graph hor Domestic Water Use 129

Figure (29): ARMA Forecast Graph. 129

Figure (30): Akaike Criteria Graph 130

Figure (31): Actual and Forecast Graph For Industrial Water Use 130

Figure (32): ARIMA Forecast Graph 130

Figure (33): Akaike Criteria Graph. 131

Figure (34): Agricultural Water Use Forecast from 2015 to 2050 Graph 133 Figure (35): Domestic Water Use Forecast From 2015 to 2050 Graph 133 Figure (36): Industrial Water Use Forecast From 2015 to 2050 Graph 133

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V

Index Tables

Table 1 Libyan and Non-Libyan population (1954-2006) 10 Table (2) Summary of availability and use of water resources in the Mediterranean

countries selected. 37

Table (3) Mediterranean countries experiencing water scarcity in 1955.1990 and 2025 projected, based on availability of less than 1.00 cubic meter renewable

water /person/ year 40

Table (4) Water requirement amounts for meeting basic human needs 48 Table (5) sharing the agricultural sector in the GDP product from 2002-2012 53

Table (6) Libya – Real GDP % Growth 2011-2018 60

Table (7): Planned and achieved production of agricultural policy (1972-1975) 70 Table (8): Planned and achieved production of agricultural policy (1972-1975) 71 Table (9): Production and targets achieved (1975-1980) 72 Table (10): Planned and achieved production of agricultural policy goals

from 1980–1985 73

Table (11): Agricultural production in Libya for the period 200-2007 74 Table (12) Total renewable available water supplies and population distribution in the

North African Countries 87

Table (13) Per capita renewable water availability in the north African countries 88 Table (14) total renewable water is above 1000 m3/cap/year in Mediterranean

countries and the Middle East 89

Table (15) Constructed Dams in Libya 92

Table (16) The five water basins of Libya 93

Table (17) Desalination and wastewater treatment technologies in Mediterranean and

Middle East countries 94

Table (18) Overview of the medium and large size desalination plants 96 Table (19) Overview of the wastewater treatment plants. (Elgallal-2017) 99 Table (20) Unit Root Test for agricultural domestic and industry water 114 Table (21) The result of ARDL Model for Agriculture water use 117 Table (22) The Result of ARDL Model for Industry water use 120 Table (23) The result of ARDL Model for Industry water use 123 Table (24) ARIMA Forecasting for Agricultural Water Use 126 Table (25) Automatic Forecasting for Domestic Water 127 Table (26) Automatic ARIMA Forecasting for Industrial Water 129 Table (27) Forecasting of Expected Quantities of The Water From (2015–2050) 132

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VI

ABSTRACT

Water scarcity a fundamental problem in Libya and most parts of the world Water shortage are often due to problems of uneven distribution and the management of existing Water supplies in Libya could be improved, Like most countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Libya is mostly arid and semi-arid covers a total of 1,759,540 square Kilometres (GAI,2008), The cultivable area of the Libyan state is estimated to be about 2.2 million hectares(1.2% of the total area) (NASID,2006) Groundwater is the main source of fresh Water in the country, more than 80%of agricultural production achieves from irrigated agriculture, also under conditions of the rapid growth in the population Water demand exceed 83% of the total annual consumption ( LGWA,2006), Rapidly increasing population in many parts of the World place growing demands on Water for agricultural, domestic, and industry use Responses to these increased demand include not only steps such as well drilling, and dam construction, but also improved management of available fresh water .So the continue increase of population will increase human need for water, demand for fresh water escalated so the ground water resources were gradually exploited . The Great Man-Mad River project was carried out to transport Fresh water from underground reservoirs in south Libya to more fertile and cultivable land where most people live, through a network of pipes that are buried at a depth of 7 meters under the ground, The pipe is 1.600 km long and its inner diameter is 4 meters, After the termination of all its network the pipes will be approximately 4.000 km long which make it the largest artificial irrigation network in the world The growth of Water demand has a marked impact on the water resources of Libya which suffered serious depletions and quality deterioration ( Lawgali -2006), The common benchmark for water scarcity is 1000 cubic meters /years /person . In Middle East and North Africa 53% of the people are said to live with less than 100 meters cubic meters /years

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VII /person, water availability in Libya is very low and does not amount to 1000 cubic meters /years /person were 538 and 154 cubic meters/years / person in 1960 and 1990. respectively (FAO 2002), in Libya the amount of water withdrawal is over eight time its renewable water resources (FAO 2001). however, we must search for non – conventional sources. for example, water transfer schemes (The Great Man-Mad River Project) desalination plants, wastewater conservation .Globally agriculture is the largest water consuming sector, accounting for approximately 70% of all fresh water extraction (Elgallal – 2017), Due to growing competition between the agricultural and industrial sectors and the higher economic value in urban and industrial uses of high -quality fresh water supplies, as result of the increasing demand for water, wastewater has increasingly become the most predominant low cost and reliable alternative to conventional irrigation water in many countries, especially arid and semi -arid regions .Before the discovery of oil, the Libyan economy was characterized by its dependence on the agriculture sector . Oil was discovered in Libya in the late nineteen- fifties High oil revenues provided an appropriate environment for the financing of all development projects, including agricultural projects. Although the Agriculture in Libya has the financial and nature potential to make the agriculture sector more effective it is confronted by many challenges that prevent its effective development to investigate to impact of changing agriculture policy approaches on Libyan agricultural performance, The Libyan government in the nineteen seventies and the nineteen- eighties formulated policies for agricultural development through a set of medium-term plans ( Three- years plan 1973-1975 Five -year plan 1976/1980 and five plan 1981 -1986), However the decline of oil prices in the eighties was the main reason behind the change in approach to agricultural policy in Libya . The main aim of this study is forecasting of demand of the water in Libya for (agriculture, Domestic and Industry water use) using the time series

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VIII analysing on Eviwes 10 software from 1975 -2014 and the forecasting until 2050. Using ARIAM model.

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IX

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This piece of work could not have been completed without firstly the help from Allah. I should like to express my special appreciation to my supervisor Professor Gianluca Brunori for his encouragements; I have been receiving from him. I am deeply indebted to him for all his encouragements and wise words. I feel that I have learnt an enormous amount not only in this work but also from the hours we have spent in discussion. Without those encouragements and helps this thesis would not have been completed. I am extremely grateful to have had the opportunity to work with him, learn and benefit from his knowledge and experience.

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CHAPTER 1

General Introduction

1.0.0. General Introduction

Two-thirds of the earth’s surface is covered with water. However, shortage of water is one of the most serious problems facing many countries of the world. The reason is that 97 percent of all the water is unfit for human use. Of the remaining three percent, two-thirds are locked up in glaciers, polar ice-caps, and snow. That leaves only one percent available for human consumption. This residual amount should be enough to satisfy the needs of all the living things in the world for (humans, animals, and plants) (Omer, 2002).

Even though over 70% of earth’s surface is covered with water, water is identified as one of the most important natural resources, and its scarcity has become a problem for many countries around the world. Libya one of such countries. Natural factors, as well as human actions and inactions, are the causes of the problem of water scarcity. It is expected that, over the next generation, growing population will, directly or indirectly, push 55% of the world’s population into the grip of water-stress or severe water scarcity. Water security is a fundamental problem in Libya and most parts of the world.

Water shortage is often due to problems of uneven distribution and poor management of existing water supplies. There are many countries where the freshwater resources do not exceed 1000 m3 /person/year. Such countries are classified as water-scarce. Most of these countries are in the Middle East (West Asia) and North Africa (FAO, 2008). While many of these countries need to make fundamental changes in their water management, some others must also invest in the infrastructure to develop and augment their water supplies.

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2 Large areas of most of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa, such as Libya, are arid and semi-arid. The land-area of Libya is covering a total of 1,759,540 square kilometres. Of with the arable area is estimated to be about 2.2 million hectares (1.2% of the area). Groundwater is the main source of fresh water in Libya. More than 80% of agricultural production depends on irrigation (Aman, 2011). The population in North Africa is growing rapidly and as we know the growing demand for water from the increasing population is of two types, direct and indirect. The direct demand arises from need of water for drinking and cooking. The other human needs for water arise from human activities such as agriculture and industry, (FAO, 2011) Water resources are very unevenly distributed among the countries of the world. While some countries have an abundance of water, many others must manage under the conditions of extreme scarcity. Also, some countries may appear to have abundance of water, but often that water is not accessible or not close to the cultivable lands or is very expensive to exploit.

Thus, water scarcity can be said to have three dimensions: physical (when the available supply is insufficient to satisfy the demand), infrastructural (when the infrastructure in place is inadequate to satisfy the demand of all the users), and institutional (when institutions and legislation fail to ensure reliable, secure, and equitable supply of water to users). It is estimated that, on average, a withdrawal of water at a rate above 20 percent of renewable water resources represents a substantial pressure and withdrawal of more than 40 percent represents a ‘critical’ pressure on water resources. In some regions, particularly in the Middle East, Northern Africa and Central Asia, the withdrawal by countries is already more than the critical threshold. The resultant stresses on the functioning of the ecosystems in these countries are increasingly apparent. It is now estimated that the river basins in which more than 40 percent of the world’s rural population lives are in a state of physically water

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3 scarcity. In these river basins, the cause of water scarcity is the growing human demands and limited water resources.

Water scarcity on a regional scale has the potential for conflicts at different levels (Fisher, 1995). Three sources of conflict are easily identified: 1) problems due to water availability and conflict between its uses by competing sectors, 2) conflicts because of trends of land use development and 3) problems arising due to impacts on environmental and ecological levels. Water scarcity is one of the current dangers threatening the development of today’s human communities. It has led decision-makers to seek alternative, advanced and optimum measures for the efficient use of the limited quantity of water (UN/WWAP, 2003). It is, therefore, imperative to build strategies that meet the day-to-day demands of the stakeholder with precision and in an equitable manner given the availability of this scarce resource. Rapid population growth is the most influential reason for water resources becoming increasingly scarce. Currently, more than 470 million people in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East live in water-stressed condition. This number is expected to exceed three billion by the year 2026. A good example of this fact is the tension over water reserves in all the major river basins of Africa. Environment and Energy Study Institute (EESI, 1999) reports that insufficiency of water is a crucial barrier in the path towards food self-sufficiency for many countries.

Considering the specific case of Libya, we can state that the deep fossil aquifers were discovered during the oil exploration in the 1950s and 1960s. Their water was pumped out and used on site from 1960s to develop agricultural projects in the desert close to the wells, but water scarcity and the intense population concentration in the north coastal region necessitated the transfer of water to that region. With that began the Great Manmade River Project (GMRP) in 1984. Despite a huge estimated cost of over US$ 30,000 million, Libya relied on the internal funding, especially from funds generated by the oil sector.

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4 The final objective of the five-phase project is to transfer 5–6 million m³/day of water to the northern cities from more than 500 wells of 500 m depth and through about 4,000 km of pipelines. Phase 1 was accomplished in 1991. It created the capacity to convey up to 2 million m³/day of water over a 1 600 km distance to two reservoirs in the Benghazi and Sirte areas. From 1997, phase 2 brought up to 2.5 million m³/day along of water over 1227 km to Tripoli. Phase 3 resulted in transfer of additional 1.68 million m³/day of water from the Al Sarir aquifer to Tobruk through 621 km of pipeline. Phase 4 will extend the distribution network from Gadamis (Jabal Nafusah and Al Jefara aquifers) to the coast west of Tripoli, and phase 5 is intended to join both the eastern and western systems into a single network. However, the civil unrest stopped further works, and the NATO bombings destroyed some reservoirs. Though the primary aim of GMRP had been to provide water for agriculture, 98 percent of the water is being used by municipalities (EGA, 2013). Estimations of the availability of fossil water, which a non-renewable resource, for this transfer vary greatly: between 50 years and over 4000 years, depending on actual abstraction of water and sources. On the other hand, the renewable surface water resources are estimated at 200 million m³/year and renewable groundwater resources at around 600 million m³/year, and 100 million m³/year is an overlap between surface water and groundwater. This gives a value of total internal renewable water resources (IRWR) of 700 million m³/year. As no river flows into Libya across the country’s borders, and no surface water or groundwater enters the country, the total renewable water resources in Libya are 700 million m³/year, which in 2015 worked out to 111.5 m³/year per capita. Thus, Libya is well below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m³/year per capita. Fossil groundwater water leaving the country to neighbouring countries is estimated at 700 million m³/year.

In addition to the above water resources, Libya has nineteen dams that are in operation including a secondary dam on Wadi Qattara. These dams have a total storage capacity of

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5 about 390 million m³. However, their actual average annual storage is only about 61 million m³ and, in fact, due to lower flow records or damage to some dams, it is estimated not to exceed 30 to 40 million m³/year. The construction of some twenty dams is planned. They will add 136.6 million m³ to the storage capacity and 45 million m³ of additional average annual storage.

1.0.1 Problem Statement

The quantity alone is not the problem associated with water, but the quality of the water from the rivers, lakes and the aquifers are also a problem. The water withdrawals for agriculture in various regions are up to 85% in North Africa, 86% in the Arabian Peninsula, 92% in Iran and the 86% in the Near East. However, these levels vary greatly among the countries of the regions such as North Africa and the Middle East. For example, the withdrawal is 44.5% in Bahrain, 92.1 % in Iran, 85% of the total water used in Egypt, Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria, and it is over 70% in Libya, Tunisia, the UAE, Iraq, and Turkey (FAO AQUASTAT, 2012).

With very limited perennial water resources, Libya depends almost completely on non-renewable fossil groundwater resources. Water resources have impacted not just the physical geography, but also the human geography. The availability and quality of water have strongly determined the establishment on human settlements and have very strongly influenced the ability of the societies to thrive in their environments (Antonelli .2015). The reason societies thrive in water-rich environments is not only because water underpins the daily domestic activities such as bathing, cleaning, and cooking but also because water is of vital importance for food production as a basic input for agriculture; whether it is rainfed or irrigated.

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6 Historically, agriculture initially served the farm family to achieve self-sufficiency in food. The farmer then traded the surplus produce for other goods needed by the family. The trade resulted in the development of cities, usually near rivers, which also facilitated the transportation of goods. As the demand for food grew, it became necessary to control water systems through the development of water resources infrastructures. That is why, for the countries of the Middle East and the North African region, the driest regions in the world, addressing the question of the sustainability of the usable water resources is more urgent than for countries anywhere else. The region’s economies are enduring increasingly arid and semi-arid circumstances and have rising populations. Irrigated agriculture is by far the biggest user of freshwater despite it being associated with the lower economic returns than any other possible productive water uses. Agriculture provides the main source of livelihood for rural societies in the non-oil economies of the region, and it is also a very attractive option for local farmers, mainly because the prevalent high temperature in the region sustains good growth of crops. That explains the traditional prioritisation of irrigated farming, both in water allocation and water policy discourse (Aman, 2011).

Libya is currently facing great challenges in meeting the growing demand for safe water. Libya is one of the driest regions on earth. It suffers from a severe shortage of water resources, despite the efforts that include construction of dams, desalination plants for making seawater fit for human consumption, and water treatment plants. Therefore, there is an urgent need to control the consumption of this important and vital resource. Controlling the use of water in the agricultural sector, which places the greatest demand on the available water resources in the country, is especially challenging because precise estimates of water demand and supply that are necessary for such control at the national level are always difficult to make. This is due to the lack of accurate statistics, especially in developing countries like Libya.

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7 Such an exercise was conducted by LGWA and General Environmental Authority in 2005. The study revealed that groundwater supplies provided 95.6 % of the total supply. The conventional surface water contributed 2.3 %, and the non-conventional methods of desalination of seawater and the wastewater treatment were minor resources contributed only 1.4 % and 0.7 %, respectively. Of this total supply, agriculture consumed the greatest share - 78 %, while the domestic sector consumed 12 %, and industry only 10 %. (LGWA, 2006). The study highlights the minuscule contribution of conventional and non-conventional water resources in Libya as compared to the consumed quantities. Clearly, there is a deficit leading to depletion of the quantity of groundwater and deterioration of its quality due to seawater intrusion. According to LGWA (2006), data on water balance, there was a major water supply deficit occurring in the Jaffara Plain basin and a less significant deficit in the Jabal Alakhdar basin due to population concentration and demand for water for irrigating the arable lands in the north-western and north-eastern regions of Libya. There was, however, no water deficit in the southern basins.

Libya suffers from the water scarcity because of its location in North Africa and on the southern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. The country extends about 1000 kilometres towards south into the Sahara (LGWA, 2006). This area falls in the dry and semi-dry climatic regions. The region is characterised by low levels of rainfall ranging between 10-500 mm annually. Only 5% of the total area of Libya receives rainfall exceeding 100 mm/year. Thus, Libya is the poorest in the world in terms of the renewable water resources. The annual water availability per capita does not exceed 120 m3. Furthermore, Libya does not possess any

lasting surface freshwater resources, yet increasing incomes and expanding population are increasing the demand for water and food and encouraging further agricultural activities for increasing food production.

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8 However, adverse climatic conditions over most of the land area and water scarcity have impeded the growth of agricultural sector, and the country depends on food imports, spending its valuable foreign exchange. This situation raises the questions about food security, and the attendant questions of political stability (LGAA, 2008). Dependence on groundwater as the major source of water to meet the demands of the agricultural and other economic sectors in the northern coastal areas has led to over-exploitation of groundwater. Since 1960s, this has caused some problems such as saline deterioration and aquifer deterioration since 1960s.

Economic resources are divided into two types: natural resources and human resources. Water resources fall under natural resources and population falls under human resources An increase in the latter leads to the increased demand for the former. The demand may be direct or indirect. Direct demand is the demand for water for drinking and cooking, and the indirect demand is for other human needs. The relationship between population growth and demand for water resources is direct. Demand for water by agricultural and industrial sectors is an indirect demand. The current trends of increasing demand for water indicate an approaching water crisis in many countries in North Africa and the Middle East.

In Libya, 95% of the land is desert, and the climate is arid. From the preceding, it is evident that the rate of population growth is the most important factor affecting water resources. Increased consumption of potable water and water for domestic purposes in the highly populated cities of Libya will cause extreme deficit in water resources. The country’s population has tripled since the 1950s. It was 1,888,730 in the first census in Libya in 1954. It had grown to 5,657,632 in the last census 2006. Because of the population growth and the improvement of living standard, the country is facing a severe lack of water resources. Water shortages of about 1154 to 4339 Mm3 have been estimated for the years 1998 and 2025, respectively. The concentration of population in the north has led to increased demand for

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9 water in that region and has caused low groundwater levels in some areas and vulnerability to pollution in other regions. However, because of lack of population in the southern parts; these areas do not suffer from problems of water shortage and contamination (Gadalmola.2016). The human factor makes a great impact on water resources in Libya. Furthermore, one may say that the human factor is fundamental, and comes in first place, because these people live in this land, invest in it, and use all its resources to serve their interest (NBID, 2000). Table 1 shows the population growth in Libya from the first authoritative census in 1954 to the census of 1984. The population growth rate has increased from one census to another. It reached the rate of 3.70% in the period between 1954 to 1964, but that rate is not accurate, because of the circumstances and conditions that encompassed the census in 1954. It was conducted during a bad economic situation, and when there was a lack of consciousness among the population that was mostly nomadic. However, the rate continued to rise during the period 1964-1973 and reached 4.30%. Possibly, the rate of population growth increased during this period due to the relative stability experienced by the country after the discovery of major oil reserves in the early sixties of the twentieth century. The population growth rate reached its maximum at 4.48% during the period between 1973 and1984 because it was during this period that the country began investing its oil revenues in several development projects, and the State’s population policy was to increase the population. The provision of housing for all citizens and many health facilities such as hospitals and polyclinics were added to the other incentives such as housing and family allowances, as well as free education and healthcare (NBID, 2000) that were given for encouraging people to have more children. During the period 1984-1995, the average of population growth rate in Libya decreased (2.80%), but this average reached its lowest level in the last census of the population in Libya in 2006, which covered the period from 1995 to 2006. The rate fell to 1.80% due to certain economic factors such as the rising standards of

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10 living and the difficulty in providing necessities of life, the most important of which is housing. Other factors included the high levels of education, cultural diversity of the population, and the entry of women in different areas of work, which plays a role in the low birth rate, in addition to the tendency of some families to use the means of birth control (GIA, Census 2006).

Table 1 Libyan and Non-Libyan population (1954-2006)

Census Libyan population Non- Libyan population Total Population 1954 1,041,564 47,274 1,888,730 1964 1,515,501 48,686 1,564369 1973 2,052,372 196,685 2,249,237 1984 3,231,059 411,517 3,642,576 1995 4,389,739 409,326 4,799,065 2006 5,298,152 359,540 5,657,692

Source: GIA Census 2006, p. 40.

The distribution of population in Libya is uneven. The population appears sprinkled and haphazard, which suggests lack of points of concentration and low population destiny.There are two important ranges in the population distribution in Libya. The first range is the concentration of population in the north and the second is the sparsely populated range or the empty part in the south. The overcrowding in the north has had a negative impact on water resources in northern Libya, leading to the lowering of groundwater level in some areas and causing the water resources in other regions to be vulnerable to pollution. The second is in the central and southern parts of Libya, the uninhabited range, where there is a lack of population, and therefore these areas do not suffer from problems of waterdeficiency or pollution caused by high by high rate of population growth and the consequent greater the demand for water.

In short, Libya’s water resources are extremely scarce because of its situation in the arid and semi-arid climatic region. Like most countries in North Africa and the Middle East, Libya

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11 has historically lacked the balance between water demand and supply. Population growth poses the major challenge facing these regions - that of finding the balance between the demand for and supply of water under the difficult climatic conditions. The population growth rates of these regions are among the highest in the world. After the limited increase in population in Libya from 1 million in 1954 to 4 million in 1995, it is expected to exceed 12 million by 2025 (NASID.2006). This population growth will exacerbate the problem of water scarcity in the country. Further, the rising demand of water for agriculture is exacerbated by population increase. The Libyan population depends heavily on underground water; the agriculture sector is the principal consumer of water in Libya. Furthermore, most of the population and agricultural land are concentrated in the northern parts of the country, and there is not enough water for them.

1.0.2 The main issues to be studied are

 The Libyan economy depends heavily on underground water, which accounted for 97% of the water used in the country (Omar, 2007).

 Only 5% of the country receives rainfall exceeding 100 mm/year. (Ramali, 2011).  The agriculture sector is the principal consumer of water in Libya, and around the world

agriculture is the largest water consuming sector accounting for approximately 70% of all the freshwater extracted (Winpenny et al., 2010).

 The population growth in Libya is very high. It is one of the highest rates in the world.  Decreased annual average of rainfall (Bashir, 2018).

 Majority of the population and agricultural activities are concentrated in the northern part of the country where there is not enough water for them.

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12

1.0.3 The aims of the study are

Water problem exists all over the world, but in some parts of the world such as in Libya, it is turning out to be a major issue. Libya is faced with a serious water shortage due to an imbalance between limited water resources and increasing demand. The country’s population has tripled since the 1950s. Because of the population growth, and the improvement in the standards of living, the country is facing a severely from a lack of water resources. Water shortage of about 1154 to 4339 Mm3 have been estimated for the years 1998 and 2025, respectively. There is a vital need to focus on this problem properly to avoid serious impact on the economic development of the country (Wheida, E., 2004). Water demand in Libya is increasing as rapidly as in any other country in the world. On account especially of the withdrawal from groundwater resources, the main objective of this study is to forecast the future water demand. Rapidly increasing population in many parts of the world imposes a growing demand for water for agriculture and domestic and industrial uses. Response to these increased demands include not only drilling of more wells and constructing more dams but also improving the management of the available freshwater resources to meet the increasing needs of an increasing population. According to the reports published by the Water Resources Institute, nine countries in the world are in water crisis, and Libya is one of those countries (WORLD resources, 1995), Therefore, the Libyan authorities should search, as soon as possible for non-conventional sources of water, for example, water transfer schemes (GMRP), wastewater processing, and desalination plants to produce several million gallons of usable water per day. These technologies are commercially available and already being used to purify water for domestic, agricultural and industrial use in some arid countries. For the imbalance between the water resources and water needs in Libya, population growth rate is the most important factor. Also, the

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13 concentration of population in the north has caused increased demand for water in that region, which has led to the lowering of the level of water in some areas and increasing the vulnerability of the water resources to pollution in other regions. On the other hand, because of the lack of population in the southern part of Libya; this region does not suffer from the problems of water shortage or contamination. Therefore, this study focuses on the issues of limited water resources and population growth in Libya

From the above, the main objectives of the study are:

 To investigate the water resources in Libya (conventional and non-conventional).  To investigate the present relationship between population growth and the various uses

of water to forecast of the demand for water (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) from 2014 to 2050.

 Forecasting of the demand for water (agricultural, domestic, and industrial) from 2014 to 2050.

 Using time series for analysing the data from (1975-2014) and investigating the factors that have the maximum impact on demand for water demand such as the price, income, population, and the temperature.

 To explain the role of the GMRP to solve the water problem in Libya.

1.0.4 Organization of the thesis

This study is organised into six chapters followed by the mam results and recommendations as follows : -

In the first chapter the problem of the study is defined and the goals of it as well as the Literature Review. reviews the literature relevant to this topic, theoretically as well as Previous studies related to the water problem in Libya and population growth.

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14 Chapter two provides a general background to The Problem of Water in the Mediterranean Area Chapter three this chapter divided into two sections the first one focus on the problem of the water in Libya and how this problem will impact on agriculture sector,The section two focus on agriculture sector in Libya before discovery

the

oil and after the oil revolution also the planning of agriculture sector in the country. chapter four focus on water resources in Libya conventional resources and unconventional resources as well . Chapter five focus on method and analysis using time series analysis and EVIEWS 10 software chapter number six is Conclusions and Recommendation.

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15

REFERENCES

Aman, M. R. (2011) Optimization of water use for food production in arid and semi-arid regions.

Brika, B.(2018). Water resources and desalination in Libya: A review.Tripoli, Libya. EGA (2008)Environment General Authority. (2013,). National biosafety framework of the Libyan Arab.

FAO. (2008). Hot issue: Water scarcity Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations, (http//fao.org/nr/water/issues /scarcity, html).

FAO. (2011). The state of the world’s land and water resources for food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of The United .Nations. [FAO] AQUASTAT database (2012), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

FAO Website accessed in June. (2012). Available online at http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/data/query/index.html?lang.

Fisher, F. (1995). The economics of water dispute resolution, project evaluation, and management: An application to the Middle East. Water Resources Development, 11, 4. United Nations World Water Assessment Programme, (2003). In: The 1st UN World water development report: Water for people, water for life. Paris, New York and Oxford: UNESCO and Berghahn Books.

LGWA (2006). Water resources of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. Libyan General Water Authority, Tripoli, Libya.

LGAA (2008). Features of the national strategy for food security in Libya. Libyan General Authority for Agriculture.

Mart, A. (2015). Water resources and food security and virtual water trade in the Middle Est and North African region. PhD thesis University of London.

(NBID) National Body for Information and Documentation (2000). Report on population. 2–8. In Arabic.

NASID (2006) National Authority for Statistical Information and Documentation, Personal Communication From Authority Tripoli 2006.

Omer, M. S. (2007) Water resources management in Libya, Work Shop on Integrated Water Resources Management in Tripoli Libya.

Winpenny, J. T., & Heinz, Koo-Oshima, S. (2010). The wealth of waste: The economics of wastewater use in agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

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16 Wheida, E. (2004). Desalination as a water supply technique in Libya. Desalination 165, 89–97.

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17

CHAPTER 1

1.1.0 Literature Review

The purpose of this part of chapter one is to review the experiences of researchers in water problem in general and in Libya in particular. To understand the demand for water, population growth in Libya and its impact on the water resources, and thus the water problem in Libya, much information and data are needed and with that starts the problem for the researchers. In Libya as in most developing countries, the information and data for research are limited and sometimes unavailable. The problems with the in these countries include the brief time-period for which the data is available and uneven periodicity of data, missing monthly and quarterly data, missing observations and variables, and imposition of secrecy on some data and information. As compared with data in the developed countries, data in developing countries is also less reliable due to the technical inexperience of the data collectors. In addition to the above problems, some unpublished data can usually only be obtained through a personal contact. This study was made in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and the political upsets that Libya suffered. Therefore, obtaining the information for this study was difficult.

The following are the findings and conclusion from some of the studies of these issues.

FAO, (2018): In 2004 the population was 5.88 million with estimated growth rate 2.4

percent, the climatic conditions in the country influenced by Desert climate 90 % of the country. The main source of water in the country is fossil groundwater pumped from deep aquifers in the south to supply water to the populated north. This supply system is known as the GMRP. Most of the rainfall occurs during the winter between October and March. Some surface water resources are used in the north, and this region is susceptible to drought. Libya,

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18 like many Mediterranean countries, has experienced several drought events and water deficits. This will likely increase in the future in response to low rainfall and rapid population growth, aggravated by the annual rate of evaporation which is about 1,700 mm near the sea and 6 000 mm in the central and southern regions resulting in the increasing water requirements for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes.

FAO, (2018): Water is essential for sustaining economic growth and meeting increased

demand for food. The availability of water resources globally is on the decline, and in many parts of the world, poor water quality makes it unsafe for use. Water pollution threatens both human and environmental health, affecting billions of people. Serious efforts are needed to prevent the deterioration of water quality in our lakes, aquifers, rivers, and seas. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development acknowledges the importance of conserving water resources and abating water pollution. Global attention is focused primarily on water quantity, water-use efficiency, and allocation issues. Poor management of wastewater and agricultural drainage have created serious water quality problems in many parts of the world, worsening the water crisis. Water scarcity is caused not only by the physical scarcity of the resource but also by the progressive deterioration of water quality in many basins, reducing the quantity of water that is safe to use.

FAO, (2015): At the global level, water resources will be enough to produce the food

required in 2050, but many regions will face substantial water scarcity. Water shortages will result in increasing competition for water. Much of the net growth in the global population up to 2050 will occur in the cities of the lower-income, developing countries, thus increasing urban demands for water and food. Increasing urbanization will impact the volume and quality of water available for agriculture. Agriculture will continue to be the largest user of developed water resources in most countries, often accounting for 70 percent or more of water withdrawals from rivers, lakes, and aquifers. Increasing demand for water in from the

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19 cities and industries, and for environmental flows, the volume of water withdrawn for irrigation, globally, will increase from 2.6 thousand km3 in 2005–2007 to an estimated 2.9 thousand km3 in 2050, with most of the net increase occurring in lower income countries.

The irrigation requirement, which is the portion of consumptive use from irrigation withdrawals, is estimated to increase from 1.27 thousand km3 to 1.34 thousand km3.

Generally, freshwater resources are sufficient to support this modest increase; although substantial water scarcity will persist in the Near East and North Africa, South Asia and elsewhere. Water scarcity will intensify in the areas where current rates of surface and groundwater withdrawals are not sustainable, such as the North China Plain and portions of Central and South Asia.

FAO, (2011): Forty percent of the world’s population lives in transboundary river basins,

and more than 90 percent live in countries with basins that cross international borders. These 263 international water basins account for about 50 percent of global land area and 40 percent of freshwater resources. The growth in water withdrawals, primarily by agriculture, has brought about the need for collaboration among countries through treaties and agreements between the riparian countries; the formulation of international agreements such as the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses; and regional initiatives such as the Southern African Development Community.

LAWGALI, (2009): The study aimed to investigate the present relationship between

population growth and water consumption to forecast the relationship between population growth and water consumption according to the various uses. The researcher used various computer programmes SPSS11, Excel 2003, and EViews 4 (computer software), The study focused on the economic aspects of population growth, and water consumption in Libya in the future. The study concludes that the future water consumption for all possible purposes

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20 will increase from 293.89 million cubic meters in 2006 to 12473.20 million cubic meters in 2020 with an average compound annual growth rate of 4.97%. In 2020, it is expected that the increase will be 98% of the water consumption in 2006. The results of the study indicate that agriculture sector will continue to be the major consumer. It represents about 83% of the estimated water consumption in 2020 and despite the use of pressurised irrigation techniques in practically all farming areas. Agriculture water use will increase from 5204.43 in 2006 to 10311.30 in 2020 as result of the growing population, and there will be increasing scarcity of water. The future water consumption for domestic purposes will increase from 895.75 million cubic meters in 2006 to 1881.66 million cubic meters in 2020 with an average compound annual growth rate of 5.4%. This can be explained by the expected increase in population and their needs for water. For the industrial sector, the water quantity is expected to be about 2% of the total water consumption in 2020. A large number of industries depend on private sources for water supply including desalination of seawater as in the cases of the chemical, petrochemical, steel, textile and other industries. The demand for industry purposes increased to 280.24 million cubic meters in 2020. For meeting their needs, industries will rely mainly on desalinated seawater. Even though industrial expansion will increase the demand for water demand, and the expected increase of water consumption during the period 2006–2020, the quantity consumed for industrial purposes is considered small as compared with the quantities of water that are expected to be consumed for other purposes.

Mansor, (2016): The main objective of the study was to relate the demand for water and

with population growth. According to the reports published by the Water Resources Institute (WRI) on nine countries that are facing water crisis, it can be observed that Libya is one of those countries. In Libya rainfall (56mm) generates an annual average flow of 98.000 Mm3 but only a small proportion of this rainfall is transformed into renewable water resources.

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21 The water researchers indicate that Libya will be facing extreme deficit in water resources for domestic purposes. The study discusses population growth and distribution of population from the first official census in 1954 to the census of 1984. The population growth reached the rate of 3.70% in the period between 1954 to 1964, but that rate is not sufficiently accurate because of the circumstances and conditions that surrounded the census in1954. It was conducted during a bad economic situation and also when there was a lack of awareness among population. There is no doubt that the high rate of population growth in that period led to increased demand on water resources.

Salem, (2013): The study was aimed at understanding the relationship between population

growth and demand of the water in Libya. The population element is the main factor that contributes to the impact on the demand for water. The population size has important implications for pressures on the water. Increased population requires more food, which typically requires more land and water. The study concluded that the population will increase from less than one million in 1955 to more than 5 million by the year 2025 and is expected to exceed more 12 million by 2025. The maximum capability to supply water in Libya on a sustainable basis has been expected at rate of 3820 mm3.

In contrast, demand for water is expected to grow annually from 3885mm3 in 1955to 5795 mm3 in 2010 at a growth rate of 3.3% per year and is expected to reach about 8022 million

m3 by 2025. The huge difference between the water supply and the demand for water in Libya makes a serious water deficit average from - 65 mm3 in 1995 to an estimated deficit

of - 4202 mm3 by 2025. This situation of imbalance has led Libya into a grave problem.

Edawi, (2006). The problem of water in Libya is caused by the increasing demand for fresh

water. The groundwater supply is limited. The water supply will become more problematic with rapidly increasing population and low rainfall. After discovery of fresh groundwater in the deserts of southern part of the country, the Libyan Government planned the Great

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22 Manmade River project. The Libya authorities designed and installed the hydraulic infrastructure needed to withdraw and transport this fossil water to various demand sites in the northern part of the country where most of population lives and where most of the agricultural activities are concentrated.

Elgallal, (2017): The increasing demand for water, wastewater has increasingly become the

most predominant low cost and reliable alternative to conventional irrigation water in many countries, especially in the arid and the semi-arid regions. Reuse of wastewater in urban and peri-urban agriculture is already a widespread practice in different parts of the world. It is estimated that at least 10% of the global population consumes foods produced using wastewater irrigation (WHO 2006). Wastewater reuse has both positive and negative impacts. Because of its water and nutrient contents that are important for crop production, it can generate substantial value for urban and peri-urban agriculture, supporting the farmers’ livelihoods, and providing considerable benefits to related communities and the environment.

On the other hand, the reuse of wastewater, particularly untreated or partially treated wastewater, may result in substantial risks to public health and the surrounding ecosystems as result of microbial and toxic content of the water. This study seeks to enhance the effective reuse of wastewater for irrigation in arid and semi-arid areas by developing an integrated approach of combining health risk assessment and environmental risk assessment. The study was one of the very few research projects that bring the three aspects together. It will provide a bench-mark for the decision-makers by which they can to estimate the health and environmental risks and assign values to the costs and benefits of alternative strategies for wastewater reuse in agriculture to optimize the trade-offs between risks to public health and environment while preserving the substantial benefits of wastewater reuse. This study was based on a case-study in Misurata in the northern Libya. The objective of the study was to

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23 identify a typology of appropriate representative wastewater management strategy to develop an approach which combines these two methodologies to identify the optimum strategies for wastewater reuse in agricultural context.

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24

CHAPTER 2

THE PROBLEM OF WATER IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

2.0.0. The Problem of Water in the Mediterranean Area

The Mediterranean basin extends 3,800 km from east to west, from Portugal to the beaches of Lebanon, and 1,000 km north to south from Italy to Morocco and Libya. Within the European Union, the Mediterranean Region encompasses seven Member States either partially (France, Portugal, Italy, Spain) or completely (Greece, Malta, Cyprus). (European Commission, 2000).

Water is the major reason for the development of the economies of the countries in this region. In the Mediterranean basin, water is more precious than petroleum. Water is considered as the most critical resource for sustainable development in most of the Mediterranean countries (Koundouri & Karousakis, 2006). Water is fundamental not just for the agricultural or industrial sectors but also, more importantly, for the environment. Water significantly impacts the health and nature. While the problem of water is one of the most important issues around the world, in the Mediterranean basin it is far more important because majority of the Mediterranean countries face the problem of scarcity of water. In the southern countries of the basin especially, it is of even greater importance due to the diversity of the climate, average precipitation the temperature, etc between the two sides of the basin and the growth of population. The Mediterranean basin is home to 60 percent of the world’s people who face water scarcity, i.e., they have less than 1 000 m3 of water per capita per year. Natural resources in the region are unequally distributed among the countries of the south and the north, (72 percent in the north, 23 percent in the east and only 5 percent in the south) . Almost 300 billion m3 of water are being used today in the region. This water demand has doubled in a century and increased by 60 percent over the past 25 years. It

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25 remains unevenly distributed (from 100 to more than 1 000 m3/capita/year), depending on

the country (north or south). Water resources in the Mediterranean basin are not equal distributed. Of the renewable resources of water in the Mediterranean basin, 85 % are concentrated in Turkey and the Northern Mediterranean countries (blue plan paper, 2011) According to the blue plan, most of the countries on the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean are facing ‘chronic scarcity’, with less than 1000 m3/capita/yr of water. Some countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Israel, Gaza and Malta) have less than 500 m3/capita/ yr, which is identical with a state of ‘absolute scarcity’.

Water is a finite resource and it is quickly becoming a scarce commodity in most of the Mediterranean countries, particularly the southern countries. Competition among agriculture, industry and cities for the limited water resources is already making the development in many countries difficult. Of the 21countries that have been declared ‘water-scarce’, 12 are in the Near East region and many of them are Mediterranean countries. (FAO, 2001).

The total annual demand for water in the Mediterranean basin is likely to increase further by 50 km3 by 2025 to reach 330 km3/year. The major portion of this increased demand will be

from the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. Agriculture will continue to be the major user of water in terms of volume, especially on the southern and eastern rims of the basin. Irrigated areas are likely to increase by 38 % in the south and by 58 % in the east to reach 9 million ha and 8 million ha, respectively (Blue plan notes, 2009). In the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries, the increase in demand for water is a very high-priority issue because it arises from demographic pressure, that is, the high population growth rate (especially in the southern countries) and from the development of water intensive activities such as tourism, and some manufacturing sectors such as food. Indeed, the imbalance

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26 between supply and demand is reflected in the reduced per capita availability of water resources.

2.0.1 The population growth

Is another problem facing the Mediterranean countries, especially those in the south. The problem of water –. its quantity and quality. – in the south is exacerbated further by the rapid growth of population, the competition among agriculture, industry and tourism sectors and the extension of irrigation and industrial development. (Koundouri & Karousakis, 2006). Urbanization is another problem facing the Mediterranean countries. more than 10 000 inhabitants will account for 80 million inhabitants by 2025 (compared with 43 million in 1995).The rates ofurbanisation differ among the northern and southern rim countries of the Mediterranean. During the last 50 years (1960–2010), the urban population in the Mediterranean region has grown. At the beginning of that period, 48 % of the entire population of the Mediterranean basin lived in urban areas, whereas in 2010, around 67 % of the population lived in urban areas. Most of this urbanisation has occurred in the coastal area such as the European Union’s Mediterranean coastal cities of Rome, Athens, Barcelona, Naples and Marseilles. Population densities in coastal regions vary across the Mediterranean basin, ranging from between 0 and 100 persons per km2 along parts of the West Balkans,

southern Turkey Greece, and coastal Libya to more than 5 000 persons per km2 at certain

locations in Palestine and Israel. In general, the highest concentrations are found in the western Mediterranean and along the shores of the Levant. With around 250 to 500 persons per km2, the Nile basin is one of the most populous regions. In 2010, twenty-two countries in the Mediterranean basin had 470 million inhabitants. The number of inhabitants, it is estimated, will reach 529 million by 2025. The population of the coastal areas grew from 95

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27 million in 1979 to 143 million in 2000. It could reach 174 million by 2025. The concentration of population in coastal areas is intensive in the western Mediterranean, along the western shore of the Adriatic Sea, the eastern shore of the Aegean-Levantine region, and in the Nile Delta. Overall the concentration of population in the coastal zone is higher in the southern Mediterranean countries. This is also where the variability of the population density in the coastal zone is highest, ranging from more than 1000 people/km2 in the Nile Delta to slightly

more than 20 Source (UNEP, MAP-2012), people/km2 along parts of coastal Libya. (plan blue -2012).

Figure (1) Urban population in the Mediterranean Area

In the Mediterranean basin, the total water demand per capita in the south and in the east, at 600 m³/capita/year and 680 m³/capita/year respectively, is less than the demand in the north, while per capita demand for drinking water varies from approximately 65 m³/capita/year (175 litres/day) in the south and east to almost 120 m³/ capita/year (330 litres/day) in the north. In terms of improved access to water sources, the northern Mediterranean countries and Israel have achieved a 100% rate of access to drinking water, more than 20 million Mediterranean inhabitants, mainly in rural areas, do not have improved access to water sources. (Scoulls & Ferragina, 2009). As stated earlier, the population of Mediterranean

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28 region is likely to reach 529 million by 2025 with unevenly distributed growth: ten million in the northern countries and 82 million in the southern and eastern countries. With the annual influx of about 300 million tourists during the summer vacation into the Mediterranean coastal areas, which remain the leading international tourism destinations, an increase in the demand for drinking water is to be expected specially. (Also, during summer people need more water to drink).

In the Mediterranean littoral countries, water resources are limited and unevenly distributed. The countries of the southern rim receive a mere 10 % of the total rainfall. Some places such as south of Libya receive less than 10 %. Twenty (20) million and forty-seven (47) million Mediterranean people still do not have access to drinking water and sanitation, respectively, especially in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. Water use outputs, in spite of some encouraging results, are far from satisfactory. Conveyance losses, leakages, and wastage are estimated to be about 40 % of the total water demand (Blue plan, 2009). Fresh water resources are becoming very limited in many countries around the world because of population growth, increasing pollution, poor water management, and climate change, not just in Mediterranean area. The demand for fresh water has continued in increase as the world’s population and economic activity have expanded. In 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population will be suffering moderate to high water stress, and about half of the population will face real constraints in their water supply. The situation is particularly critical in the Middle East and North Africa. Almost all the conventional water resources have already been exploited in Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Yemen Jordan, Israel, Palestinian Territories and Libya. They are expected to be fully exploited in several other countries within the next few years (Lazarova & Cirelli, 2014). The Mediterranean the countries on the southern and eastern rim are constrained by limited land and water resources, which are unevenly spread both in time and space. France, Italy, and

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29 Turkey receive half the region's total rainfall; the southern countries along the North African coast enjoy only one-tenth. The Mediterranean is home to 60% of the world's population classed as living in 'water poverty' less than 1000 m3 of water available per capita, per year. Nearly 20 million Mediterranean people have no direct access to drinking water, especially in the rural areas of the south and east. Resources are already overexploited in some places, and yet water requirements are set to rise sharply as the population increases in the south and east and the economy grows through tourism, industry, and irrigated agriculture. The average annual renewable freshwater resources for both surface and groundwater of all the Mediterranean countries together are estimated to be about 1080 km3. But these are not equally distributed in the region. Nearly two-thirds are concentrated in the northern countries, while the eastern and southern Mediterranean countries have only one-quarter and one-tenth of the water resources respectively. The six least endowed countries and territories are Cyprus, Israel, Libya, Malta, the Palestinian Territories, and Tunisia. Together they have less than 1% of the total freshwater resource.

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30

Figure (2) Annual rainfall distribution in the Mediterranean Basin

Source: plan blue 2012

Most countries on the southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean, with less than 1000 m3/capita/year, are in water stress. Algeria, Israel, Libya, Malta, Tunisia and the Gaza Strip have less than 500 m3/capita/year; a situation classed as ‘shortage’.

2.0.2 Climate change

Has become a big issue in the Mediterranean countries. It will impact not only the water resources in these countries, but will also impact the health of the people, plants, soil, drought, and the environment. Especially in the Mediterranean region, with widely variable climate that is desiccating and warm in summers, the precipitation may decrease by more than 25 to30 percent and the rise in the temperature may exceed 4–5°C. Extreme events in the Mediterranean region are related to droughts and floods that may cause deep erosion and landslides. For these reasons, the Mediterranean region is identified as one of the most prominent hotspots in future climate-change projections. Climate change is assumed to have significant effects on Mediterranean agriculture. Projected climate changes will have a direct

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