The financial feasibility of a real estate project: the case of the ex Tessitoria Schiatti

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 223 ( 2016 ) 217 – 224

ScienceDirect

1877-0428 Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of ISTH2020 doi: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.352

QG,QWHUQDWLRQDO6\PSRVLXP1(:0(75232/,7$13(563(&7,9(66WUDWHJLFSODQQLQJ

VSDWLDOSODQQLQJHFRQRPLFSURJUDPVDQGGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROVWKURXJKWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI

+RUL]RQ(XURSH,67+5HJJLR&DODEULD,WDO\0D\

7KH)LQDQFLDO)HDVLELOLW\RID5HDO(VWDWH3URMHFWWKH&DVHRIWKH([

7HVVLWRULD6FKLDWWL

/HRSROGR6GLQR

3DROR5RVDVFR

6DUD0DJRQL



a

Politechnic of Milan, Department of Building Environment Science & Technology – Via Ponzio 31, 20133 Milan, Italy

b

University of Genoa - Department of Architectural Sciences - Stradone S. Agostino, 37, 16123 Genoa, Italy

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

,QWHUDWLRQDOO\WKHPRVWZLGHO\XVHGPHWKRGRORJ\IRUWKLVDVVHVVPHQWLVWKH'LVFRXQWHG&DVK)ORZDQDO\VLV'&)$ WKLVWRROLVEDVHGRQWKHPHWKRGRIWKHGLVFRXQWHGFDVKIORZVQDPHO\RQWKHGLVFRXQWRIWKHEDODQFHVEHWZHHQFRVWV DQGUHYHQXHVZLWKLQWKHHVWLPDWHGGXUDWLRQRIWKHLQYHVWPHQW

%RWK LQ SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH VHFWRUV DQ LQWHUYHQWLRQ LV FRQVLGHUHG VXVWDLQDEOH ZKHQ LW LV DEOH WR JHQHUDWH D WRWDO EDODQFHRIWKHSRVLWLYHFDVKIORZV1HW3UHVHQW9DOXHDQGDQDQQXDOSHUFHQWDJHRIUHWXUQ,QWHUQDO5DWHRI5HWXUQ ,55WKDWDUHJUHDWHUWKDQWKHRQHVJHQHUDWHGE\DOWHUQDWLYHLQYHVWPHQWVDWORZRUQRULVN3UL]]RQ

7KH FRUUHFW HVWLPDWH RI WKH FRVWV DQG UHYHQXHV JHQHUDWHG IURP DQ LQYHVWPHQW EHFRPHV D FUXFLDO SKDVH IRU WKH SXUSRVHVRIDUHOLDEOHFDOFXODWLRQRIVXVWDLQDELOLW\LQGLFDWRUV7KHGLIILFXOWLHVFRQFHUQLQJWKHFRVWVDQGWKHLUDFFXUDWH YDOXDWLRQDUHHVVHQWLDOO\DWWULEXWDEOHWRWKHOHYHORIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWLVDYDLODEOHDWWKHWLPHRIWKHGUDIWLQJRIWKH SURMHFW DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ WR WKH FKRVHQ PHWKRG RI HVWLPDWLRQ V\QWKHWLF LQ WKH FRQFHSW DQG WKH GHVLJQ SKDVHV DQDO\WLFDOLQWKHILQDODQGH[HFXWLYHVWDJHV:KHQWKHSURMHFWGHDOVZLWKIRUPHULQGXVWULDODUHDVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\ WKHSUHVHQFHRISROOXWDQWVLQWKHVRLORUVXEVRLODWWKHSUHYLRXVGLIILFXOWLHVLWLVDGGHGDOVRWKHXQFHUWDLQW\UHODWHGWR WKHFRUUHFWHVWLPDWHRIUHPHGLDWLRQFRVWVWKHVHFRVWVFDQRQO\EHHYDOXDWHGZLWKVXIILFLHQWUHOLDELOLW\ZKHQDOOWKH DQDO\VLVUHODWHGWRWKHW\SHRIWKRVHVXEVWDQFHVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGDQGZKHQWKHSURFHGXUHVRIWKHLQWHUYHQWLRQDUH GHILQHG

,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKHVH RSHUDWLQJ HQYLURQPHQWV WKLV FRQWULEXWLRQ LV WKH UHVXOW RI WKH YDOXDWLRQV RI WKH HFRQRPLF DQG ILQDQFLDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIVRPHUHFRYHU\DQGUHQRYDWLRQ¶VSURMHFWVGHYHORSHGRQWKHDUHDRIWKHIRUPHU7HVVLWRULD

6FKLDWWL LQ /HQWDWH VXO 6HYHVR ,WDO\ WKDW KDYH ,W KDV EHHQ FDUULHG RXW E\ WKH VWXGHQWV RI WKH :RUNVKRS LQ $UFKLWHFWXUDO3URMHFWDQG&RQVWUXFWLRQVRIWKH3ROLWHFQLFRGL0LODQRSURII%&URFH6&DWWDQHR/6GLQR 7KHVH UHVXOWV FRQILUP WKDW EHFDXVH RI WKH PDMRU FRVW RI WKH UHFODPDWLRQ WKH IHDVLELOLW\ RI HYHU\ SURSRVHG SURMHFW FDQQRWSUHVFLQGIURPDSXEOLFILQDQFLDOFRQWULEXWLRQWKDWZLOOFRYHUWKRVHKLJKHUFRVWV  ‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKHRUJDQL]LQJFRPPLWWHHRI,67+  Keywords:5HFODPDWLRQFRVWVSDUDPHWULFDQDO\VLVHFRQRPLFVXVWDLQDELOLW\GLVFRXQWHGFDVKIORZDQDOLV\V &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ E-mail addressOHRVGLQR#SROLPLLW

 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

$QLQYHVWPHQWFDQEHUHSUHVHQWHGE\DVHTXHQFHRIFRVWVQHHGHGIRUWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRUSXUFKDVH RIDSURSHUW\DQGLWVPDQDJHPHQWDQGUHYHQXHVIURPWKHVDOHRUOHDVHRIWKHSURSHUW\DFFRUGLQJWRDFHUWDLQWLPH EDVHG DQDO\VLV \HDU VHPHVWHU HWF WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ SRVLWLYH YDOXHV UHYHQXHV DQG QHJDWLYH RQHV FRVWV GHWHUPLQHFDVKIORZV

'XULQJWKHOLIHRIDQLQYHVWPHQWZKLFKFDQJRIURPDPLQLPXPRIWZRWRWKUHH\HDUVLQWKHFDVHRISURGXFWLRQ DQGVDOHWRILIW\VL[W\\HDUVLQWKHFDVHRIDUHQWDOSURSHUW\FRVWVDQGUHYHQXHVQHYHURFFXUDOODWWKHVDPHWLPH EXWWKH\DUHDUUDQJHGDORQJWKHHQWLUHOHQJWKRIWKHOLIHF\FOHRIWKHDVVHW)RUWKLVUHDVRQLWLVQHFHVVDU\WKDWWKLV FDVKIORZKDVWREHGLVFRXQWHGWRWKHSUHVHQWYDOXHPHDQLQJWKDWDOOWKHYDOXHVKDYHWREHWKHVDPHDVWKH\ZHUHDW WKH WLPH RI WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV XVXDOO\ UHSRUWHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH LQYHVWPHQW WKURXJK WKH DGRSWLRQ RI DQ DSSURSULDWHGLVFRXQWUDWH

7KH'LVFRXQWHG&DVK)ORZ$QDO\VLV'&)$IROORZVWKLVSULQFLSOHWKHILQDQFLDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIDQLQYHVWPHQW SURSHUW\ LV DVVHVVHG E\ EULQJLQJ EDFN DOO WKH FDVK IORZV SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYH WR WKH EHJLQQLQJ WKURXJK WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI VHYHUDO IRUPXODV RI ILQDQFLDO PDWKHPDWLFV ZKLFK LQYROYH WKH XVH RI D GLVFRXQW UDWH DSSURSULDWHO\ LGHQWLILHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHLQYHVWRU¶VSURILOHDQGRQWKHW\SHGXUDWLRQRIWKHLQYHVWPHQW7KHGLVFRXQWDOORZVWKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH LQYHVWPHQW VXVWDLQDELOLW\ LQGLFDWRUV 1HW 3UHVHQW 9DOXH  139 ,QWHUQDO 5DWH RI 5HWXUQ  ,55 ZKLFKDUHWKHQFRPSDUHGZLWKPLQLPXPWKUHVKROGVRIDFFHSWDELOLW\VHWE\WKHLQYHVWRU 7KHXVHRIWKLVFDOFXODWLRQWRRODOORZVWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDV\VWHPZLWKPDQ\HFRQRPLFYDULDEOHVVXFKDVWKH PDUNHWYDOXHRIWKHEXLOGLQJVDQGWKHYDOXHRIWKHODQGLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHLULQWHQGHGXVHWKHFRVWVRISURGXFWLRQ DQGPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHLQWHUYHQWLRQWKHUHYHQXHVH[SHFWHGE\WKHSURPRWHUDVDUHVXOWRIWKHVDOHRUUHQWDORIUHDO HVWDWHXQLWVGHYHORSHGWUDQVIRUPHGWKHWLPHUHTXLUHGIRUWKHUHDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVLQJDQGPDUNHWLQJRUOHDVHRIWKH DVVHWVWKHILQDQFLDOFRVWVIRUWKHLQYHVWRUVH[SRVXUHWRZDUGVWKHLQVWLWXWLRQZKROHQWWKHFUHGLW

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 DVVHVVHG DW WKH VWDUWLQJ GDWH FDUULHG RXW E\ WKH LQYHVWPHQW LW LV WKHUHIRUH WKH VXPPDWLRQ RI WKH GLVFRXQWHGFDVKIORZZKLFKDVVDLGPXVWQHFHVVDULO\EHDSRVLWLYHYDOXH

7KHVHFRQGSDUDPHWHUWKH,55LVWKHSURILWDELOLW\UDWHRIWKHLQYHVWHGFDSLWDOLQRWKHUZRUGVWKH,55LVWKHUDWH WKDW QXOOLILHV WKH 139 PDNLQJ SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYH FDVK IORZV HTXLYDOHQW DIWHU WKHLU DFWXDOL]DWLRQ ,Q RUGHU WR GHYHORS DQ LQYHVWPHQW LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WKDW WKH ,55 DVVXPHV D YDOXH WKDW KDV WR EH JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI SURILWDELOLW\PLQLPXPWKUHVKROGGHILQHGE\WKHLQYHVWRUFRPSRVHGRIWKHVXPRIDUDWHQHFHVVDU\WRFRPSHQVDWH WKHH[SHFWHGLQIODWLRQDQGRIDUDWHHTXDOWRWKHSURILWDELOLW\RIDQLQYHVWPHQWZLWK]HURULVNRUDOPRVWQRDQGRIDQ DOLTXRWWKDWFDQUHZDUGWKHLQYHVWPHQW¶VULVN

7KH,55¶VFRPSXWDWLRQDOGLIILFXOWLHVDULVHEHFDXVHZHREWDLQDSRO\QRPLDORI³Q´GHJUHHVE\SXWWLQJLWHTXDOWR ]HURZKHUHQDUHWKH\HDUVRIUHDOHVWDWHLQYHVWPHQWWHUPWKHUHIRUHWKHSRO\QRPLDOFDQKDYHPRUHWKDQRQH,55

Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

VROXWLRQDQGWKDWDOORIWKHPDUHHTXDOO\YDOLG7KLVKDSSHQVZKHQWKHUHLVDYDULDWLRQRIWKHVLJQRIFDVKIORZVRYHU WKH WLPH WKLV LV IUHTXHQWZKHQ UHDO HVWDWH PDQDJHPHQW LV LQYROYHG,Q WKH FDVH RIUHFRYHULHV DQGUHXWLOL]DWLRQV RI IRUPHU LQGXVWULDO DUHDV VXFK DV WKH SUHVHQW FDVH VWXG\ WKH QHHG WR UHDOL]H UHPHGLDWLRQ LQFUHDVHV WKH FRVWV RI LPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQGWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHHVWLPDWHGYDOXHV&DWOHWW %RHKOMH0LVLROHN 1RVHU .XQ 0DOOL  7XIDQ  -DQLNRZVNL  .RUF]  7KLV OHDGV WKH LQYHVWRU WR GHWHUPLQH D PXFK KLJKHU PLQLPXPWKUHVKROGRIDFFHSWDELOLW\RIWKH,55WKDQWKRVHWDNHQIRURUGLQDU\LQWHUYHQWLRQV7KDWRIWHQKROGVEDFN WKH DGYDQFHPHQW RI WKH LQLWLDWLYHV 7KLV KDSSHQV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI D ODUJH VXSSO\ RI XQFRQWDPLQDWHG DOWHUQDWLYHVLWHVLQWKHVXUURXQGLQJDUHDVZKRPDNHWKHHQWHUSULVHRIVXFKGHYHORSPHQWVOHVVDWWUDFWLYH5HKR7RQLQ 7URPEHWWD

 &DVHVWXG\

7KH FDVH VWXG\ SURSRVHG LQWKH:RUNVKRSLQ$UFKLWHFWXUDO 3URMHFW DQG&RQVWUXFWLRQ KHOG DW WKH 3RO\WHFKQLF RI 0LODQLVDUHFRYHU\DQGUHQRYDWLRQLQWHUYHQWLRQRQDFXUUHQWO\GLVXVHGLQGXVWULDOVLWHVLWXDWHGLQWKHFHQWUHRIWKH FLW\ RI /HQWDWH VXO 6HYHVR 0% ,WDO\ D PHGLXPVL]HG WRZQ LQ WKH QRUWK RI 0LODQ $IWHU WKH IXQFWLRQDO DQG DUFKLWHFWXUDO GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH IXWXUH RI WKH DUHD HDFK ZRUNJURXS  LQ WRWDO GHYHORSHG WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH HFRQRPLFDQGILQDQFLDOIHDVLELOLW\RIHDFKSURMHFWXVLQJDFRVWUHYHQXHDQDO\VLV

7KH VXVWDLQDELOLW\¶V LQGLFDWRUV WKDW KDYH EHHQ XVHG IRU WKLV SXUSRVH DUH WKH 139 DQG WKH ,55 VSHFLILFDOO\ WKH 139¶VYDOXHKDGWREHSRVLWLYHDQGWKHQWKH,55KDGWREHDWOHDVWRI,IWKRVHWKUHVKROGVZHUHQRWIXOILOOHGE\ WKH SURMHFWV QHZ ³K\SRWKHWLFDO´ VFHQDULRV ZHUH JRLQJ WR EH SURSRVHG DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKLFK WKH HFRQRPLF DQG ILQDQFLDOIHDVLELOLW\ZRXOGKDYHEHHQJUDQWHGE\WKHUHFRXUVHWRDSXEOLFILQDQFLDOFRQWULEXWLRQ

,Q WKRVH VFHQDULRV WKH TXDQWLW\ RI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG DV WKH OHDVW DPRXQW RI PRQH\ QHHGHGLQRUGHUWRUHDFKWKHDOUHDG\PHQWLRQHGWKUHVKROGVEXWZLWKRXWH[FHHGLQJWKHP

7KH ³K\SRWKHWLFDO´ VFHQDULRV DV DOUHDG\ PHQWLRQHG ZHUH FRQILJXUHG DFFRUGLQJ WR D SRVVLEOH SXEOLF ILQDQFLDO FRQWULEXWLRQZKLFKZRXOGKDYHDOORZHGWKHLQYHVWRUWRUHGXFHQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVFDXVHGE\KLJKHUUHPHGLDWLRQFRVWV ZKLFKZKHQWKHUHDOHVWDWHPDUNHWLVLQFULVLVDQGWKHSULFHVDUHGHFUHDVLQJGHWHUPLQHVDQLQVXUPRXQWDEOHKDQGLFDS IRUDQ\UHDOHVWDWHLQLWLDWLYH

8QWLODIHZGHFDGHVDJRWKHFRQFHUQHGDUHDKRVWHGWKHSURGXFWLRQRI7HVVLWRULD6FKLDWWL

7KLV IDFWRU\IRXQGHG LQ KDV EHHQ DFWLYH IRU PRVW RI WKHWZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ WKDQNV WR WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ LQ RIWKH-DFTXDUGORRPVWKDWHQDEOHGZLWKOLWWOHODERXUWRLPSOHPHQWFRPSOH[GHVLJQVLWKDVHVWDEOLVKHGLWVHOILQ WKHJOREDOPDUNHWE\HQVXULQJSUHFLRXVSURGXFWVDQGKLJKTXDOLW\

:LWK WHFKQRORJLFDO SURJUHVV KRZHYHU WKH RULJLQDO DUHD EHFDPH LQDGHTXDWH DQG WKH QHHG WR WUDQVIHU WKH HQWLUH LQGXVWULDOFRPSOH[WRZDUGVD PRUHFRQJHQLDODUHDWRQHZSURGXFWLRQ¶VUHTXLUHPHQWVZDVLQHYLWDEOH$OWKRXJKLW KDVEHHQUHFHQWO\SXUFKDVHGE\DSULYDWHHQWLW\WKHDUHDLVFXUUHQWO\DEDQGRQHGEHFDXVHRIWKHGHFOLQHLQSURSHUW\ YDOXHV DQG EHFDXVH WKH GHPDQG KDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG LWV SURILW PDUJLQV VORZLQJ GRZQ LQ IDFW WKH UHFRYHU\ RSHUDWLRQVIRUWKLVW\SHRISURSHUWLHV

7KHJURXSVKDYHIRXQGGLIIHUHQWVROXWLRQVUHODWHGWRWKHUHFRYHU\RIWKHDUHDLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHLQGLFDWLRQV GHULYHG IURP ORFDO RSHUDWRUV RI WKH UHDO HVWDWH PDUNHW DQG IURP WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI WKH 7HUULWRULDO 0DVWHU 3ODQ 703 RI WKH &LW\ RI /HQWDWH 6HYHVR $FNQRZOHGJLQJ D SDUWLFXODU DHVWKHWLF DQG V\PEROLF YDOXH WR WKH DUHD DOO JURXSVKDYHRSWHGIRUDQLQWHUYHQWLRQWKDWZDVQ¶WDFRPSOHWHUHFRQVWUXFWLRQEXWUDWKHUDSDUWLDODGDSWDWLRQRIWKH H[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVWRQHZIXQFWLRQV7KHDUHDKDVEHHQEXLOWZLWKUHVLGHQFHV,QVLGHWKHDUHDPL[RIIXQFWLRQVKDV EHHQSODFHGZLWKUHVLGHQFHVWKDWFRYHUPRVWRIWKH3ODQQHG*URVV/HDVDEOH$UHDFUHDWHGEXLOGLQJVLQWHQGHGIRU WHUWLDU\FRPPHUFLDODQGGLIIHUHQWVHUYLFHV 7KHVHGHYHORSPHQWSURMHFWVKDYHDIIHFWHGRQDYHUDJHDQDUHDRIDERXWVTXDUHPHWHUVRIWKH*/$RI ZKLFKFRQVLVWVRIQHZEXLOGLQJVDQGFRQVLVWVRIWKHUHFRYHU\DQGUHKDELOLWDWLRQRIWKHDOUHDG\H[LVWLQJLQGXVWULDO EXLOGLQJVWKDWDUHQRZDEDQGRQHG,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWZKLOHHYDOXDWLQJWKHSURMHFWDERXWKDOIRIZKDWKDVEHHQ UHDOL]HG IROORZLQJ ZKDW LV VWDWHG LQ WKH 703 KDV EHHQ JLYHQ IRU IUHH WR WKH PXQLFLSDOLW\ LQ H[FKDQJH RI D UHGXFWLRQRIWKHFRVWVRIWKHXUEDQL]DWLRQ7DEOH

  

7DEOH$UHDVLQWHUHVWHGE\SURMHFWVGHYHORSHGIURPWKHGLIIHUHQWZRUNJURXSV *URXS 7RWDO VTP ([QRYR VTP 5HFRYHU\ VTP 7UDQVIHUUHGDV VHUYLFHV VTP                                                        Average 21,500 17,000 4,500 11,695  

)RU WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH HFRQRPLF VXVWDLQDELOLW\ RI WKLV RSHUDWLRQ WKH VWXGHQWV LQLWLDOO\ SURFHHGHG HVWLPDWLQJWKHDPRXQWRIWKHH[SHFWHGFRVWVDQGUHYHQXHV7RHYDOXDWHWKHUHYHQXHVWKHVWXGHQWVHVWLPDWHGWKH VDOHVYDOXHRIWKHSURSHUWLHVDPRQJWKHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWHYDOXDWLRQPHWKRGVDYDLODEOHIURPWKHOLWHUDWXUH WKH0DUNHW&RPSDULVRQ$SSURDFKLVWKHRQHWKDWKDVEHHQXVHG7KH(XURSHDQ*URXSRI9DOXHUV$VVRFLDWLRQ 

$FFRUGLQJ WR ZKDW WKLV PHWKRG SUHVFULEHV WKH\ SURFHHGHG ZLWK WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI FRPSDUDEOH DVVHWV VHOHFWHG IURP WKH ORFDO UHDO HVWDWH PDUNHW WKHVH DUH SURSHUWLHV VLPLODU WR WKH RQHV SODQQHG LQ WKH YDULRXV SURMHFWVDQGWKDWDUHDOUHDG\YDOXHGE\WKHPDUNHW)RUWKLVSXUSRVHORFDORSHUDWRUVKDYHEHHQFRQVXOWHGUHDO HVWDWHDJHQWVLQIDFWWKH\SURYLGHGLQIRUPDWLRQDQGGDWDLQRUGHUWRHVWDEOLVKWKHHVWLPDWHGVDPSOH

,Q RUGHU WR EHWWHU UHIOHFW WKH WHFKQLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI HDFK SURSHUW\ LQFOXGHG LQ WKH HVWLPDWHG VDPSOH WKUHH FRUUHFWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV KDYH EHHQ DSSOLHG WR WKH VDOHV SULFHV RI GHWHFWHG DVVHWV .L .HDQG.P3UHFLVHO\.LVWDQGVIRUWKHLQWULQVLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHDVVHWUHODWHGVSHFLILFDOO\WRWKH SURSHUW\XQLWVXFKDVVL]HWHFKQRORJ\XVHGREVROHVFHQFHHWF.HVWDQGVIRUWKHH[WULQVLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI WKH DVVHW UHODWHG WR WKH FRQWH[W LQ ZKLFK WKH DVVHW LV LQVHUWHG VXFK DV WKH SUHVHQFHRI VHUYLFHV DFFHVVLELOLW\ HWF.PVWDQGVIRUWKHPDUNHW¶VFKDUDFWHULVWLFVSKDVHRIWKHUHDOHVWDWHF\FOHDQGWKHSULQFLSOHRIPDUJLQDO XWLOLW\

7KH HVWLPDWH RI WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV ZDV GHYHORSHG XVLQJ D V\QWKHWLF PRQR SDUDPHWULF PHWKRG DV WKH VROXWLRQVRIWKHSURMHFWZHUHQRW\HWGHILQHGLQGHWDLO,QIDFWWKHUHZHUHQRHVVHQWLDOWHFKQLFDOVSHFLILFDWLRQV LQRUGHUWRDOORZWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIDQDQDO\WLFDODSSUDLVDOPHWKRGELOORITXDQWLWLHVLQWKLVSDUWLFXODUFDVHWKH VWXGHQWV XVHG WKH SULFH OLVW RI WKH &ROOHJH RI (QJLQHHUV DQG $UFKLWHFWV RI WKH 3URYLQFH RI 0LODQ &ROOHJH RI (QJLQHHUVDQG$UFKLWHFWV0LODQ 7KHHVWLPDWHGFRVWDQGVHOOLQJYDOXHVKDYHEHHQWKHQLQVHUWHGLQWKH'&)$PRGHOIRUWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIHDFK VROXWLRQSODQQHG7DEOH   

7DEOH0DUNHWYDOXHVDQGFRVWIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWLQWHQGHGXVHVH[SHFWHG *URXS 5(6,'(17,$/  &200(5&,$/  2)),&,(6 :09D  ¼VTP &&1 E_ ¼VTP &&5 F_ ¼VTP  :09D  ¼VTP &&1 E_ ¼VTP &&5 F_ ¼VTP  :09D  ¼VTP &&1 E_ ¼VTP &&5 F_ ¼VTP

   not realized    not realized    _{not realized}

           

      not realized    _{not realized} 

      not realized     _{not realized}

      not realized    _{not realized} 

           

           

   not realized     not realized not realized not realized    not realized       _{not realized} 

          _{not realized}            _{not realized}  Average 2,052 1,213 868 1,510 1,047 769 1,622 1,064 891 D :HLJKWHG0DUNHW9DOXH E_{&RQVWUXFWLRQ&RVW([1RYR} F &RQVWUXFWLRQ&RVW5HFRYHU\     

$FFRUGLQJ WR WKHVHYDOXHV LWIROORZV WKDW IRU D WRWDO JURVV DUHDRI  VTXDUH PHWHUV WKH WRWDO FRVWVIRU WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQLV¼ZKLOHWKHDYHUDJHUHYHQXHVDUH¼7DEOH7KLVGLVSURSRUWLRQLVPDLQO\ GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW DV PHQWLRQHG DERYH WKH 703 LPSRVHV WKDW DERXW KDOI RI WKH JURVV DUHD UHDOL]HG PXVW EH WUDQVIHUUHGDWQRFKDUJHWRWKHPXQLFLSDOLW\LQH[FKDQJHIRUDUHGXFWLRQLQXUEDQL]DWLRQFRVWV,QWKLVZD\ZHKDYH DQLQFUHDVHRIWKHSURGXFWLRQFRVWVZLWKRXWKDYLQJDQ\EHQHILWLQWHUPVRIUHYHQXHV:LWKWKLVDVVXPSWLRQLWLVFOHDU WKDWWKHILQDQFLDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKHHQWLUHRSHUDWLRQLVYHU\KLJK  7DEOH&RVWVDQG5HYHQXHV *URXS 7RWDODUHD VTP 7RWDOFRVWV ¼ 7RWDOUHYHQXHV ¼                                             Average 21,500 21,269,000 16,779,500 7KHFDVKIORZVKDYHEHHQGHWHUPLQHGIROORZLQJWKHHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHFRVWVDQGUHYHQXHVDQGLQDGKHUHQFHZLWK

WKH UHDOLW\ RI WKH PDUNHW WKH VDOH RI VRPH RI WKH EXLOGLQJ XQLWV KDV EHHQ DOUHDG\ K\SRWKHVL]HG GXULQJ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQSKDVHWKURXJKWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDQDSSURSULDWHPDUNHWLQJDFWLRQRQWKHRIIHUHGUHDOHVWDWHSURGXFWV )RUWKLVUHDVRQWKHQHHGWRLQFUHDVHWKHDWWUDFWLYHQHVVRIWKHSURSRVHGDVVHWVWKURXJKWKHSXEOLFLW\DQGWKHEUDQGLQJ RIWKHSURMHFWKDYHHPHUJHG 7KLV³EUDQGLQJ´DFWLRQZDVRIWHQDWOHDVWLQWKHPRVWVXFFHVVIXOFDVHVDGGUHVVHGVWUDWHJLFDOO\WRZDUGVDVSHFLILF WDUJHWSDUWLFXODUO\DOLJQHGZLWKWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHGHYHORSHGDUHDLGHQWLI\LQJIRUH[DPSOHDVUHFLSLHQWVRI WKHHQWLUHRSHUDWLRQOX[XU\FRQVXPHUVRULQRWKHUFDVHVVHQLRUFRQVXPHUVDWWUDFWHGE\ERWKDKRXVLQJDQGVHUYLFHV SHUVSHFWLYHWKDWKDYHEHHQWDLORUHGWRWKHLUQHHGV)ROORZLQJWKHVHFULWHULDWKHSURILOHVRIWKHILQDQFLDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\ RIWKHSURMHFWVKDYHEHHQFRQILJXUHGDVVXPLQJWKUHHGLIIHUHQWH[HPSODU\VFHQDULRV7DEOHDQG)LJXUH 7KHILUVWVFHQDULRIROORZLQJDK\SRWKHVLVDFFRUGLQJWRZKLFKWKHFRVWVUHYHQXHVDQGWLPLQJDUHSODXVLEOHGRHV QRWSURYLGHDQ\NLQGRIDGGLWLRQDOSXEOLFFRQWULEXWLRQ,QWKLVVFHQDULRSUHGLFWDEO\QRGHVLJQVROXWLRQKDVSURYHQWR EHILQDQFLDOO\VXVWDLQDEOH 7KHVHFRQGVFHQDULRKRZHYHUUHWDLQVWKHFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHSUHYLRXVVFHQDULREXWLQYROYHVLQDGGLWLRQWKHXVHRI DSXEOLFILQDQFLDOFRQWULEXWLRQJLYHQHQWLUHO\RQWKHILIWK\HDURIWKHRSHUDWLRQODVWSHULRGFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHDQDO\VLV RIFDVKIORZV7KHFRQWULEXWLRQ¶VDPRXQWVKRXOGMXVWEHHQRXJKVRWKDWWKHHQWLUHRSHUDWLRQZLOOEHFRPHILQDQFLDOO\ VXVWDLQDEOHSRVLWLYH193DQGDQ,55RIDWOHDVW,QWKLVFDVHWKHQHFHVVDU\FRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHSURMHFWVDUH UDQJLQJ IURP ¼  PLOOLRQ WR ¼  PLOOLRQ ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH FRQWULEXWLRQ UHTXHVWHG HTXDO WR ¼  PLOOLRQ 7KH WKLUGVFHQDULRILQDOO\LQYROYHVDSXEOLFFRQWULEXWLRQMXVWOLNHWKHVHFRQGRQHEXWLWGLIIHUVIURPWKHSUHYLRXVRQH EHFDXVH WKLV FRQWULEXWLRQ LV HQWLUHO\ GRQDWHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH RSHUDWLRQ RQ WKH ILUVW \HDU ,Q WKLV FDVH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV QHHGHG RVFLOODWH IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW SURMHFWV IURP ¼  PLOOLRQ WR ¼  PLOOLRQ ZLWK DQ DYHUDJH FRQWULEXWLRQ UHTXHVWHG HTXDO WR ¼  PLOOLRQ 1RWHZRUWK\ LV WKH IDFW WKDW WKH UHTXLUHG FRQWULEXWLRQV LQ WKH WKLUG VFHQDULRDUHDOZD\VORZHUDSSUR[LPDWHO\WKDQWKRVHUHTXLUHGLQWKHVHFRQGRQHWKLVILQGVLWVH[SODQDWLRQLQ WKHWKHRU\RIGLVFRXQWHGFDVKIORZVLQZKLFKLQRUGHUWRUHGXFHWKHDPRXQWRIUHYHQXHQHHGHGRQHKDVWRDQWLFLSDWH WKHPRYHUWLPH  7DEOH3XEOLFFRQWULEXWLRQQHHGHGIRUWKHVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKHRSHUDWLRQ *URXS 6FHQDULRD  193 ¼ 6FHQDULRE   6FHQDULRF  193 ¼ 3XEOLF FRQWULEXWLRQ QHHGHG¼  193_¼ 3XEOLF FRQWULEXWLRQ QHHGHG¼  1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS       1YS      Average -  11,423,500   7,192,000 D 1RSXEOLFHFRQRPLFFRQWULEXWLRQ E 3XEOLFHFRQRPLFFRQWULEXWLRQJLYHQDWWK \HDU F 3XEOLFHFRQRPLFFRQWULEXWLRQJLYHQDWVW \HDU   



)LJXUH139REWDLQHGLQVFHQDULRDQGZLWKSXEOLFHFRQRPLFFRQWULEXWLRQ



 &RQFOXVLRQ 

7KH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG IURP WKHVH WKUHH VFHQDULRV VKRZ WKDW IRU DOO WKH SURMHFWV WKDW KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG WKH HFRQRPLFIHDVLELOLW\RIWKHLQWHUYHQWLRQLVVWURQJO\FRQGLWLRQHGE\DSXEOLFILQDQFLDOFRQWULEXWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKH OHVVRQHURXVK\SRWKHVLVIRUWKHSXEOLFVXEMHFWWKLVLVRQDYHUDJHHTXDOWR¼PLOOLRQ7DEOH)RUWKHLQYHVWRU WKLV FRQWULEXWLRQ DOORZV KLP WR REWDLQ DQ 139 WKDW LV SRVLWLYH DQG D VXIILFLHQW SURILWDELOLW\ ,I RQH FRPSDUHV WKH DYHUDJHYDOXHRIWKHSXEOLFFRQWULEXWLRQZLWKWKHHVWLPDWHGFRVWVIRUUHPHGLDWLRQDQGVLWHSUHSDUDWLRQLWLVHYLGHQW WKDWWKHILUVWRQHLVPXFKKLJKHU7DEOH 7DEOH7RWDOUHPHGLDWLRQFRVW                  7KLVLVH[SODLQHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWWKH703UHTXLUHVWKHRSHUDWRUWRSURGXFHDQGWUDQVIHUDQDPRXQWRIVHUYLFHVDQG SXEOLFIDFLOLWLHVWKDWLVJRLQJWRUHGXFHIXUWKHUSURILWPDUJLQV7KHHFRQRPLFFRQWULEXWLRQZKLFKFDQEHLQWKHIRUP RI D WRWDO H[HPSWLRQ RI WKH SD\PHQW RI XUEDQL]DWLRQ FRVWV FDQ WKHQ EH MXVWLILHG DV D ILQDQFLDO UHZDUG IRU WKH

 _  _  _  _{  }  139

3 XEOLFHFR QR PLFFR QWULEXWLR QDWVW\HDU 139

3 XEOLFHFR QR PLFFR QWULEXWLR QDWVW\HDU

           ¼ P LOO LRQ *URXS *URXS &RVW_¼                       Average 2,007,500

UHDOL]DWLRQ RI WKRVH SXEOLF IDFLOLWLHV WKDW WKH SXEOLF DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ LV QRW DEOH WR DFKLHYH EXW WKDW ZLOO JUHDWO\ FRQWULEXWHWRWKHLPSURYHPHQWRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ¶VTXDOLW\RIOLIH0RUHRYHULWFDQEHVHHQDVDNLQGRIFRPSHQVDWLRQ IRUWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHWKDWWKHSRSXODWLRQKDVVXIIHUHGRYHUWKH\HDUVE\WKHSUHVHQFHRILQGXVWULDODFWLYLW\ RQLWVWHUULWRU\7KLVKRZHYHULVH[SHFWHGWREHSURYLGHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHQDWLRQDOODZZKLFKVWDWHVWKDWLQFDVHRI LPSRVVLELOLW\RIDWWULEXWLQJWKHHFRQRPLFH[SHQVHVRIWKHUHPHGLDWLRQWRWKHSHRSOHZKRFDXVHGWKHSROOXWLRQWKHVH VKRXOG EH VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 3XEOLF $GPLQLVWUDWLRQ (QYLURQPHQW 0LQLVWU\ 5HJLRQ RI FRPSHWHQFH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

5HIHUHQFHV

&DWOHWW/ %RHKOMH06WULSPLQHUHFODPDWLRQODZVDQGUHJLRQDOFRVWLPSOLFDWLRQVSouthernJournal of Agricultural Economics-XO\ SS

&ROOHJHRI(QJLQHHUVDQG$UFKLWHFWV0LODQPrezzi tipologie edilizie5RPD7LSRJUDILD*HQLR&LYLOH'(,

'HO5RVV3($SSUDLVLQJ(QYLURQPHQWDOO\&RQWDPLQDWHG3URSHUW\DQG7D[5HGXFWLRQAssessment JournalSS

*XHUULHUR & %LDQFKL ) &DLUQV - &RUL /  3ROLFLHV WR FOHDQ XS WR[LF LQGXVWULDO FRQWDPLQDWHG VLWHV RI *HOD DQG 3ULROR D FRVWEHQHILW DQDO\VLVEnvironmental Health

*XHUULHUR & &DLUQV -  7KH SRWHQWLDO PRQHWDU\ EHQHILWV RI UHFODLPLQJ KD]DUGRXV ZDVWH VLWHV LQ WKH &DPSDQLD UHJLRQ DQ HFRQRPLF HYDOXDWLRQEnvironmental health

-DQLNRZVNL5 .RUF]0)LQDQFLQJDQGFRVWRIUHGHYHORSPHQWRISRVWLQGXVWULDOVLWHVLQ3RODQGLand Contamination & reclamation SS

.DXIPDQ00,5RJHUV'7 0XUUD\.6$QHPSLULFDOPRGHOIRUHVWLPDWLQJUHPHGLDWLRQFRVWVDWFRQWDPLQDWHGVLWHVWater. Air. and Soil Pollution

.XQ00DOOL7 7XIDQ%7KHGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIUHFODPDWLRQSDUDPHWHUVDQGFRVWDQDO\VLVLQ PLQLQJVLWHVCarpathian Journal and Environmental Sciences1RYHPEHU9ROQSS

0H\HU 3%  %URZQILHOGV DQG 5HG ,QN 7KH &RVWV RI &RQWDPLQDWHG DQG ,GOH /DQG Environmental Practice 9RO  ,VVXH  0DUFK SS

0LVLROHN:6 1RVHU7&&RDO6XUIDFH0LQH/DQG5HFODPDWLRQ&RVWVLand Economics9RO1R)HESS 3UL]]RQ)/DYDOXWD]LRQHGHJOLLQYHVWLPHQWLLPPRELOLDUL7RULQR&HOLG

5HKR07RQLQ6 7URPEHWWD)³/DSURPR]LRQHGHOODERQLILFDQHOOHDUHHLQGXVWULDOLGLVPHVVH´,Q*DMR3 6WDQJKHOOLQL6DFXUDGL La valutazione degli investimenti sul territorio. $WWLGHO;;,,,QFRQWURGL6WXGLR&HVHW9HQH]LD