Analysis of the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion from physics-based numerical simulations

ANA

M. INFA 1_Depart E-mail c Abstrac portfolios standard not be su physics-b propagati superiorit In this co motions, motions h database long peri used to es vibration Plain, Ita in near-so The resul based sy independ directivity to anistro Key Wor simulatio 1. INT Risk ass utility n catastro importa probabi portfolio at all si example loss ana rise, pre with the

ALYSIS O

GROUND

ANTINO1, tment of Civ contact of m ct. One of the s is the mode

tools for site-uitable, as the based numeric ion path and n ty in reproduc ontribution we generated thr have been ge on strong mo od ones of sy stimate the co periods (rang aly; Istanbul, T ource conditio lts of this stu ynthetics is in dent publishe y/directionalit opy effects. rds: spatial co on, semi-variog TRODUCT sessment of networks (e ophe model ance to take listic seism o can be aff ites as inde e Weatheril alysis for a e-code type e largest sit

OF THE S

D MOTIO

R. PAOLU vil and Envi

main author e key issues i eling of the sp -specific hazar ey do not acc cal simulations near-surface g cing the spatia

e aim at quan rough the spe enerated using otion recording ynthetics. Geo orrelation struc

ge and sill par Turkey; Thess ons.

udy point out n substantial ed studies ty and magnit orrelation of g gram TION f a spatially e.g. water, ling. When into accoun mic risk anal ffected, it is ependent va ll et al. [1] c homogeneo e) for the F e-to-site dis

SPATIAL

ON FROM

SIM

UCCI1, C. SM ironmental r: roberto.pa in the seismic patial correlat rd assessment count for the s of earthquak geology, retain al variability o ntifying the sp ectral element g an innovativ gs and applied statistical too cture between rameters). The saloniki, Gree

that: (i) the s agreement w in a broad tude, may affe

ground motion y distributed electrical p n considerin nt the spatia lyses. Indee not correct ariables, esp considered t ous portfoli Florence (It stance of 10 1

L CORRE

M PHYSI

MULATIO

MERZINI1 Engineering aolucci@po c risk assessm tion of groun t, based on th joint occurre ke ground mot ins great poten of ground moti patial correlati t code SPEED ve approach b d to predict th ls, based on t n spatially dist e numerical d ece; Beijing, C structure of sp with the one d range of ect significant n, seismic risk d portfolio o power, com ng multiple al correlatio ed, if durin t to treat the pecially if the impact io of a sing taly) Admin 00 km, com

ELATION

ICS-BAS

ONS 

g, Politecni olimi.it ment of large u nd motion inte e use of groun nce of IMs a tion, including ntial for risk ion at regiona ion of broadb D (http://speed based on Arti he short period the computatio tributed respon dataset encomp China) and se patial correlat from actual periods; (i tly the spatial

k assessment, of assets or mmunication e buildings on propertie ng the same e ground m they are lo of spatial c gle type of b nistrative P mpared to th

N OF EAR

ED NUM

co di Milan urban areas w ensity measur nd motion pre at multiple sit g a 3D model analyses at ur al scale.   and physics-b d.mox.polimi. ificial Neural d spectral ord on of the sem nse spectral ac passes differen vere earthqua tion structure recordings a ii) factors, correlation st broad-band p infrastructu ns etc..), p or lifeline s of the grou earthquake otion intens cated close orrelation u buildings (m Province, m he Florence

RTHQUA

MERICAL

no, Italy with spatially d res. In such c ediction equat tes. On the ot of the fault ru rban scale, ow based simulat .it/). Broadban Network, tra dinates starting mi-variogram, accelerations a ent areas world

ake scenarios of broadband as well as w such as ne tructure of IM physics-based ure system, plays a key es, it is of und motion e all structu sity measur ely in space upon the agg

masonry wa made of 259 City Distric

AKE

L

distributed conditions, tions, may ther hand, upture, the wing to its ed ground nd ground ained on a g from the have been at different dwide (Po (M=6-7+) d physics-with other ear-source Ms, leading numerical , such as y role in primary n into the ures of a res (IMs) e. As an gregated all, mid-91 assets ct, made

of 168 a conside exceeda with the evaluate Californ correlat demons at value return p almost years). structur seismic For this datasets should b and on t adequat spatial c motion analyses A powe ground Simulat seismic irregula such as albeit r element numeric been ge The aim reprodu recordin source e presente geostati objectiv assets with ring spatia ance on one e smaller ‘f ed the losse nia consider ted ground strated that, es of annua periods larg a factor of In a similar re of groun losses by a s reason sev s of ground be noted th the propaga tely represen correlation recordings, s are needed erful tool w shaking an tions (3D P source, th arities, and magnitude realistic, co t code SPEE cal simulati enerated usin m of this pa uce the real

ngs, and, on effects, mag ed the ent istical anal ves will be p the largest al correlatio e side, and, footprint’. S es of two po ring six corr motion fiel for large an al mean rate ger than ab f 2 can be r study, God nd motion a factor as h veral spatial-d motion rec hat ground m ation path, t nt large are models pro , can be ha d. which allows nd of its spa PBS). Such he propaga allow one , wave prop onditions. In ED (http://s ions, limited ng an innov aper is two spatial corr n the other s gnitude and ire method lysis, the m provided. site-to-site on produce on the other Similar conc ortfolios of d relation ass ld accordin nd small po of exceedan out 100-15 found for da and Atki parameters igh as 50% -correlation cordings (e. motion corr therefore a as, as shown oposed in lit ardly represe s to obtain atial variabi h numerical ation path to investiga pagation eff n this work speed.mox.p d typically vative appro o-fold: on o relation stru side, to inve d azimith, on dology, fro most signif 2 distance of es greater r side, that clusions we different siz sumptions: ( ng different ortfolios (FI nce (MRE) 0 years) re smaller por inson [3] sh may have . ns models ha .g., [4], [5] relation stru single gene wn by Sokolo terature, ba entative of detailed an ility is repr l simulation from the ate the dep ffects, local k 3D PBS polimi.it/, [ to about 1. oach based o one side, to ucture, as in estigate the n spatial co om the setu ficant resu f about 15 k losses at l such an imp ere drawn in ze in San Fr (1) no corre models an IG.1), the u less than ab espectively, rtfolios at v howed that t e a remarka ave been pr , [6], [3], [7 ucture depe eralized spa ov et al. [8] sed on the a the area un nd region-sp resented by ns are base source to pendence of site conditi have been [11]). To en .5-2 Hz, bro on Artificia o verify the nferred from influence o orrelation fe up of the ults in resp km. The auth lower annu pact is grea n further stu rancisco Ba elation, (2)-( d (6) perfec underestima bout 7×10−3 and maxim very large r the inclusio able impact roposed for 7], [8], [9], ends strongl tial correlat for the Taiw analysis of nder study pecific estim 3D Physic ed on phys the site a f spatial var ions, for a v n produced nrich the fr oadband gr l Neural Ne accuracy o m the analys of physical p eatures. The numerical ponse to th hors conclu ual probabi ater for the p

udies. Park ay Area in N (3)-(4)-(5) ct correlatio ation of loss and 1×10−2 mum differe return perio on of the co ct on the e different IM , [10]). How ly on local tion model wan case. T large sets o and region mates of ear cs-Based Nu sical model and local g riability on variety of “ using the requency co round motio etwork ( [12 of the synth sis of strong parameters, erefore, afte model up the aforem uded that lities of portfolio et al. [2] Northern spatially on. They ses starts (i.e., at ences of ods (104 rrelation stimated Ms using wever, it geology may not Thus, the of strong -specific rthquake umerical s of the geologic n factors, “virtual”, spectral ontent of ons have 2]). hetics to g motion , such as er having p to the entioned

FIG.1 Le small p MRE cur 2. ON BRO This sec of 3D s More sp summar eft: mean ra ortfolio (bo rves from Ca THE EST OADBAND ction aims a ynthetics, f pecifically, rized in the ate of excee ottom) comp ases 1–6 to M TIMATION D GROUND at describin from the set for each ca following s edance (MR puted using MRE curve fo N OF SPAT D MOTION ng the entire tup of the 3 ase study co steps: 3 RE) curves f g the six dif

or Case 3. (A TIAL COR NS e procedure 3D numeric onsidered he for losses to ifferent corr Adapted from RRELATIO e followed t al model up erein, the w o the large relation mo m [2]) ON OF 3D P to study the p to the geo hole proced portfolio ( odels. Right PHYSICS-e spatial co ostatistical a dure adopte (top) and : ratio of -BASED rrelation analysis. d can be

(i) (ii) (iii) 2.1 3D p Once th geologic bathyme S and P of VS an correspo damping Such a the case applying source local ru are imp heteroge wavenu complyi The sou numeric degree s 2.2 ANN Starting their fr applicat approac validate relevant we limit The bas strong ordinate results o period s T*; (3) spectral obtained Setup o 3D geo numeric Generat Network Geostat broad-b physics-bas

hat the topo cal model etry) model P wave velo nd VP variab onding mod g as a funct model is th e studies d g along the function, ty upture veloc lemented. T eneities of umber doma ing with the urce and v cal model c selected in o N2BB: esti g from the l requency c tions. In th ch based on ed against r t publicatio t herein to d sic steps of motion dat es with the of the PBS spectral ord the PBS lo l matching d by the A of the 3D nu ological mo cal simulati tion of bro k (ANN2BB tistical analy band 3D PB sed numeri ographical, can be con l; (b) the cru city, VS and ble both in dels for int tion of shea hen combine discussed in e fault a he ypically a s city and rise The first on the slip di ain, while e SCEC val velocity m consisting o order to pro mating bro low frequen content an his study, n Artificial N

real case stu on for a det describe the the procedu taset, name long perio are suppose dinates of th ong period t approach, ANN. In Pa umerical mo odel, definit ons with SP oad-band sy B); ysis based Ss. ical simula geotechnic nstructed co ustal structu d VP, and (c the horizon ternal soil d ar strain (or ed with the n the presen eterogenous sigmoid one e-time. In th e is the mo istribution a the second idation crite odels obtai of hexahedr opagate a ma oadband gr ncy PBSs, b nd, hence, broadband Neural Netw udies in Pa ailed descri e main featu ure can be ely SIMBA od ones (T> ed to be acc he physics-time histori until the olucci et al 4 odel: collec tion of the PEED code; ynthetics fr on the com ations al and geol ombining: ( ure generall c) the local s ntal and ver

damping an r, in 3D, of source one nt work, a s co-seismi e, with init he present v del propose are assume d one is th eria ( [15]). ined are th ral elements aximum rel round moti broad-band make the ground m work (ANN aolucci et a iption of su ure of the ap summarized AD [16], to >T*), being curate; (2) th -based earth ies are enric response s l. [12] it h ction of the source mo ; rom 3D PB mputation of logical info (a) the digi ly described shallow geo rtical directi nd local va the second e based on s kinematic ic slip distr tiation time version of ed by Herre ed to presen he Crempie hen conden s (see botto liable freque ions synthetics em usable motions hav N), referred al. [12]. Wh uch a metho pproach. d as follow o correlate g T* the th he trained A hquake grou ched at high spectrum m has been de input data, odel (kinem BSs through f the semiv ormation are ital elevatio d in form of ological stru ion, and pos ariation of s invariant o seismotecton source mo ribution com and length SPEED two ero and Bern nt a k-2 spe en and Arc nsed into a om left FIG ency typica have to be for earthq ve been ob to as ANN2 hile we refe odology and s: (1) the A short-perio hreshold per ANN is used und motion h frequenci matches the monstrated constructio matic), exec h Artificial variogram u e collected, on (and, if f a layered m ucture with ssibly inclu shear modu of the strain onic knowle odel has be mbined wit h depending o kinematic nard [13] w ectral decay chuleta [14 a spectral G.2) with a ally of about produced t hquake eng btained thro 2BB, presen er the reade nd verificati ANN is train od (TT*) eriod beyon d to obtain t n for period ies with an e short per d that this a on of the cution of l Neural using the , the 3D needed, model of a model uding the ulus and n tensor). dge. For een used th a slip g on the c models where the y in the ] model element spectral t 1.5 Hz. to enrich gineering ough an nted and er to the on tests, ned on a spectral nd which the short ds below iterative iod part approach

allows o side, to 2.3 Geo Once th correlat end is t average follows , In seism misfit b average itself as where c projecti , sample hypothe semivar models of the ra indicatin semivar 2 Finally, coeffici 1 3. CAS In the investig Italy), T are char mechan on one side preserve th ostatistical

hat the bro tion of the p the semivar e dissimilari : 1 2 mology app between the e trend . s follows: 1 c1 and c2 ar on of the se in Equa semivariog esis of sec riogram am [20]); (iii) andom proc ng the dista riogram valu 1 2 starting fr ent defined 1 SE STUDIE present stu gated. More Thessalonik racterized b nism and ge e to obtain he spatial co analysis oad-band sy peak values riogram γ(h ity of two ra plications Zx ground mo In the pres 2 re model par egment at th ation 1 can gram by the cond order ong those g estimating t cess) and ran

ance at wh ues with the

from the se d as the com ES udy four d e specific, th ki (Greece), by different eometry, all realistic wa orrelation str ynthetics ar of ground m h) (see e.g. andom varia xi denotes t otion (recor sent study, t rameters, w he top edge be evaluat method of r stationari generally us the paramet nge (i.e., th ich motions e functional emivariogra mplementary different urb he location Beijing (Ch features in share: (i) t 5 aveforms a ructure of g re generate motion. The . [5], [9], [ ables (Zxi, Z the residual rded or simu the average while Rline is of the ruptu ted through moments ( ity; (ii) se sed to this e ters of the m he inter-stati s are uncor l form chose am it is po y to the semi ban areas ns selected, hina) and Is terms of ge the proximi nd peak gr ground moti ed, it is po e geostatisti [10], [17]). Zxj) separate 1 l term comp ulated) Yxi a e trend is de 2 the closest ure plan (see h the follow [19]) by m electing th end (i.e. exp model, refer ion distance rrelated), by en at the pre 3 ossible to ivariogram 4 in earthqua shown in F stanbul (Tur eological an ity to a wel ound value on at short p ossible to e cal tool com

It provides d by an inte puted as th at the site x efined on th distance fro e definition wing steps: means of Equ he theoretic ponential, ga rred to as si e at which γ y fitting the evious poin define the normalized ake-prone r FIG.1, are: rkey). Altho nd seismotec l-known ma es and, on t periods. evaluate the mmonly use s a measur er-site distan he logarithm xi with respe he synthetic om the surf n in [18]). (i) compu uation (3) u cal model aussian or s ill (i.e., the

γ(h) tends to e computed nt. spatial co d by the sill regions ha Po Plain (N ough such l ctonic conte apped fault the other e spatial ed to this re of the nce h, as m (log10) ect to an c dataset face fault uting the under the of the spherical variance o the sill, d sample rrelation ( ): ve been Northern locations ext, fault t capable

to trigg characte ger a sever erization of e earthquak f the soil. ke and (ii) 6

FIG.2 O each cas projectio each rup 4. RES In the p for the c of the A study. S effects, 4.1 Com Compar is crucia ground 29 May recordin compreh and tim and the stations obtained interme respecti been ob of 3D P values o real corr Overview of se studies th on of the fau pture scenari SULTS resent secti case studies ANN2BB re Second, the magnitude mparison a

ring the spa al to test th motion. To y 2012 is a ngs at epic hensive com me histories e spatial cor both for re d for both diate period ively). The btained with PBSs. A go of approxim relation stru case studies he following ult and epic io (top left) a on the main s presented esults is co e dependen and distanc gainst reco atial correlat he ability of this purpos an excellen central dista mparison be of ground m rrelation co ecords and records (g ds (PGA an horizontal h ANN2BB ood agreem mately 19-25 ucture of gr s of 3D num g information center positio and numerica n results obt at Section 3 mpared wit nce of spat ce are invest ords tion structur f the ANN2 se the Mw 6 t case owin ances less etween synt motion has oefficient h synthetics. green) and nd Spectral NS compon procedure ment is foun 5 km, demo ound motio 7 merical simul n are provid on(s) (right) al model (bo tained follo 3 are discus th that obse tial correlat tigated. ure of the br 2BB proced 6 earthquak ng to the a than 30 k thetics and been addre have been c . As an exa d synthetics Acceleratio nent is con (applied for nd between onstrating th on in a broad lations in la ded: the goo

, hypocenter ttom left). wing the pr ssed. First, t erved on re tion estima roadband sy dure to repro ke occurred availability km. Further observation essed, see [2 computed a ample, FIG s (ANN2BB on at 1.0s o nsidered. It r T <0.75s) n observatio he capabilit d range of p rge urban a ogle map alo

r coordinate rocedure de the spatial c cording, fo ates on per ynthetics wit oduce the a in Po Plain of more th rmore, for ns both in te 21]. Hence, at the availa .3 shows th B, red) for on the left a is worth no while SA a ons and syn

ty of 3D PB periods.

areas worldw ong with the es and magn scribed at S correlation s or the Po Pl riod, source th the obser actual correl (Northern I han 30 nea this case erms of pea the semiva able accele he semi-var r short per and right ha oting that P at 1.0s is th nthetics, wi BS to repro wide. For e surface nitude for Section 2 structure lain case e-related rved one lation of Italy) on ar-source study, a ak values ariogram rometric riograms riod and and side, PGA has he output th range duce the

FIG. 3 (diamon denoted (Modifie 4.1 Dep In this end, in F (namely ranges h For the consequ the hor statistic receiver estimate [9],[10] As high with pa is a me coheren fact, hig they tur the resu period- found in Top: Semiva ds) for PGA by continuou ed after [12]) pendence on section the FIG.4 we sh y 1-PPL, 3-have been c simulations uently abou izontal com al analysis rs correspon ed in this w ). hlighted by st studies o easure of si ncy decrease gh-frequenc rn out to be ults reveal a dependent. n literature ariograms o (left) and SA us lines. Bot ). n period dependenc how the tren -THE, 1-BE computed fo s 3-THE, 1-ut 79800 pa mponents fo has been nding to the work gener Jayaram an n spatial co imilarity be es at increa cy waves a less cohere a rather stron However, works. Th btained usin A(1.0s) (righ tom: Spatial ce of spatia nd of range EJ and 2-IS or four spec -BEJ and 2-irs were us or different carried out e stations th rally increa nd Baker [5 oherency of etween two asing distan are more af ent, compare ng variabili the high va he differenc 8 ng records R ht). The corr l correlation al correlatio e versus peri ST, see FIG ctral ordina -IST about 4 sed to estim t spectral o t on the N hat recorded ase with per

5] and Espo f ground mo o recordings nce between ffected by s ed to low-fr ity of range ariability of ces of the c REC (triang esponding b coefficient f on estimates iods. For ea G. 1) has b ates: PGA, S 400 monito mate correlat ordinates. D S compone d the 29 May riod, simila osito and Ie otion (e.g. [ s, the afore n two points small-scale requency w e estimates, f the range v correlation s

gles) and the est-fitting exp for PGA (left)

s on period ach case stud been consid

SA 0.2s, SA ors were ran

tion of the Differently, ent using th y 2018 earth arly to othe ervolino [10 22]). Given ementioned s and at hig heterogene waves ( [23]) which turn values is co structures a e ANN2BB a xponential m ft) and SA 1.0 d is studied. dy a single dered for w A 1.0s and S ndomly sele geometric for the 1-he set of a thquake. Th er studies ( 0], this is co n that the co d studies pr gher frequen eities and t ). Regardin out to be c omparable w among the approach odels are 0s (right). . To this scenario which the SA 3.5s. cted and mean of PPL the about 30 he ranges (e.g. [5], onsistent oherency rove that ncies. In therefore g FIG.4, case- and with that different

location peculiar be noted 0s and 0 be much of the m ground for the soft soil simulati because near-sou FIG. 4 C Iervolino 4.2 Sou The aim semivar Thessal conside ns are mainl rities of the d that the ra 0.2s) are sim h higher (ab monitors se motion is e other three l (Po Plain a ion at long e receivers i urce effects Comparison o [10] and Ja urce and Pr m of this se riogram and oniki appli red. ly related to e local geolo anges estim milar (i.e. b bout 55 km elected in T expected to cases are l and Beijing periods are in the Po Pl s are predom of the rang ayaram and B ropagation ection is to d, therefore, ications, fo o the frequen ogy and of mated for Po between 20-m). This may Thessaloniki be more co located on h g). It can als e rather sma lain are all minant, incre ges estimated Baker [5]) ba effects investigate , on the cor r which m 9 ncy content the propag o Plain, Ista -30 km) wh y be a conse i are locate oherent. On highly varia so be noted all compare located at v easing the v d by using 3 ased on reco e the influe rrelation str more than o t of ground ation path ( anbul and B hile in Thes equence of ed on homo the other h able ground

that the ran ed to the oth very short d variability o 3DPBSs aga ordings. (Ada nce of sour ructure. For one simulat motion (e.g ( [8]). Obse Beijing at sh ssaloniki the the local si ogeneous ha and, most m d conditions ges obtaine her three loc distances fro of ground sh

ainst the res apted from [2 rce propaga this purpos tion are av g. [24] or [6 erving FIG. hort period e range turn ite conditio ard rock w monitors co s (Istanbul) ed from the cations, mo om the faul haking. sults of Espo 25]) ation effect se, the Istan vailable, ha ]) and to 4, it can (i.e. T = ns out to ns: most where the nsidered or deep Po Plain ost likely lt, where osito and ts on the nbul and ave been

The pec (FIG.2) at south Istanbul the hypo of the g scenario respect highest slip dist occur in directio FIG. 5 T Correlat (2-IST, r FIG.5 scenario the rang culiar positi offers us th h of Istanbul l itself. Suc ocenter pos geometric m os (i.e. 1-I Istanbul, re level of gr tribution at n the ‘antidi n. Top: SA 2.0s tion coefficie red) and anti shows the os at 4 spec ges increas ion of the m he chance t l can be ske ch a configu sition and sl mean of the ST, 2-IST, espectively. ound shakin t bottom of irective’ 3-I Maps and s ents for PGA idirective (3-spatial co ctral ordinat se from the megacity of o deepen so etched with uration lead lip distribut e horizonta 3-IST) cla . It is evide ng due to p f FIG.5) wh IST scenari lip distributi , SA 0.2s, SA -IST, grey) sc orrelation c

tes (i.e. PGA e antidirect 10 f Istanbul wi ome aspects 3 vertical s ds to level o tion. By wa al componen assified as ent that the propagation hile, on the

io, where th

ion for Scena A 2.0s and SA cenarios refe oefficients GA, SA 0.2s tive to the ith respect s. As shown egments wi of ground m ay of examp nts are sho ‘directive’ ‘directive’ of the rupt contrary, t he rupture fr arios 1-IST, A 3.5 s for th erred to the I obtained f s, SA 2.0s a directive c of North An n in FIG.2, ith a convex motions diff ple, in FIG.5 wn for thre , ‘neutral’ one (i.e. 1 ture front to he lowest p ront propag 2-IST and 3-e dir3-ectiv3-e (1 Istanbul case for the thr and SA 3.5s conditions, natolian Fa the portion x shape with ferent depen 5 the SA 2. ee different and ’antid 1-IST) prod oward Istan peak groun gates in the -IST. Bottom (1-IST, black) e ree aforeme s). It is evid implying a ault NAF of NAF h respect nding on .0s maps t rupture directive’ duces the nbul (see d values opposite m: Spatial k), neutral entioned dent that a higher

correlat ground The sec propaga 2-THE distribu peak gr ordinate shaking lower th distribu on the r means a peak va ground more ho FIG. 6 T (left) and THE blu One of anisotro is oppos Possible set (~ 4 with res tion length f shaking on cond case st ation condit (FIG.2), c ution, have b round map e SA 1.0s. g values con han 2-THE utions allow right side o an higher v alues, and ( shaking (i.e omogeneous Top: SA 1.0s d Spatial Co ue) f the main opies by gro site to the c e anisotropy 00) of synth spect to the

for the 1-IS a more exte tudy that of tions is the characterize been consid s (left) and It is evide ncentrated i E but affect w to explain of FIG.6: (i) variability, ii) 1-THE i e. a ground s maximum s Maps for orrelation co n of advant ouping the r case of real y patterns h hetics receiv epicenter ( ST scenario ended area. ffers us the Thessaloni ed by diffe dered. FIG.6 d on the c ent that the in a narrow ting a more the semiva ) 2-THE is due to the is character shaking cor m peak value Scenarios 1-oefficients (r tages of n receivers in earthquake have been st vers located right panel 11 which prod e opportunit iki case ( [2 erent hypo 6 shows the correlation e 2-THE sc wer area wh e extended ariograms an characteriz higher mis rized by an rrelated on l es on a more -THE (left) right) for SA numerical s classes of d es where th tudied for th d in 4 near f of FIG.7). duces highe ty to investi 26]). Two d center posi e impact of structure ( cenario pro hile, the 1-T portion. S nd spatial c zed by an h fit between higher ran longer dista e extended and 2-THE A 1.0s for bo simulations distance tha he number o he 1-THE s field sectors For each se er and more igate the ef different sce itions and the hypocen (left) consid oduces high THE leads t Such differe correlation c higher sill (o n the maxim ge meaning ances), that area. (right). Bott oth scenarios is to stud anks to their of stations i scenario by s in the Nor ector the sem

e coherent l ffects of sou enarios, 1-T by the sa nter positio dering the her maximu to maximum ent ground coefficients or variance mum and m g a more co is conseque tom: Semiva s (1-THE, re dy possible r large num is generally considering rthern and S mivariogram levels of urce and THE and ame slip on on the spectral um peak m peaks shaking showed ), which minimum orrelated ence of a riograms ed and 2-e spatial mber, this limited. g a large Southern m model

and the points o and 2S) extende ranges ( sectors n FIG. 7 L Scenario Semivari TAB Effect distanc Effect directi 4.3 Effe In this end, the two scen to make 4-IST) h ranges remarka > 3s the parameters out some in ), characteri ed area than (i.e. correlat nearest to th Left: Residu os 1-THE wi iograms for BLE 1: SUM of ce of fault ivity ects of Mag section the e Istanbul ca narios with e a consisten have been s are almost ably at long e ranges of s (sill and r nteresting fe ized by a hi n the North tion lengths he epicenter ual (SA 1.0s ith indicated each sector. MMARY OF Sill Increase for decreasing distance Increase for areas characterized directivity phenomena gnitude possible de ase study ha Mw 7.0 an nt comparis selected (lef comparable g period whe f the Mw 7 range) have eatures sum igher direct hern ones ( s); (ii) The m r (1S and 1N s – Median, the four (1S THE MAIN Range Increase decreasi by Increase characte directiv phenom ependence as been cons nd Mw 7.4 f

son, two sce ft of FIG.8).

e at short – ere the influ 7 (2-IST) ea 12 e been estim mmarized in tivity and h 1N and 2N model param N). where Med S, 1N, 2S, 2N N RESULTS e for ing distance e for areas erized by vity mena of correlati sidered. To for different enarios with . Observing – intermedi uence of ma arthquake s mated (righ Table 1: (i igher value N), show hig meters (sills dian is comp N) sectors co OF FIG.7 RE Reference Sill-1S > Sill-1N > Sill-1S > Sill-2S > Sill-1S+2 Range-1S ion on mag this end, in t spectral or h a similar g right panel iate periods agnitude is h scenario tur ht panel of F i) the South s of a peak gher sills (i s and ranges puted with e onsidered for EFERRED T e to FIG.7 Sill-2S Rang Sill-2N Ran Sill-1N Ran Sill-2N Ran S > Sill-1N+2 +2S > Range-gnitude is in n FIG.8 the rdinates are position of l of FIG.8, i s, up to 3 s higher. Mor rn out to be FIG.7). Th hern sectors k shaking on i.e. variabil s) are highe equation 2) r the analys TO 1-THE C ge-1S > Rang nge-1N > Ran nge-1S > Rang nge-2S > Rang 2N -1N+2N nvestigated. ranges estim compared. f hypocenter it is evident s, while the re specifical e much hig is figure s (i.e. 1S n a more lity) and er for the Map for is. Right: CASE ge-2S nge-2N ge-1N ge-2N . To this mated of In order r (2-IST, t that the ey differ lly, for T her than

ranges o magnitu larger is where t reductio owing t heteroge FIG. 8 (R the Mw 7 5. CON This w numeric worldw (China) summar - t a r - t o - s s o t m ( t e 4 of Mw 7.4 ude. Such a s rupture ar the heteroge on of corre to the incre eneous faul (Right) Range 7.4, 4-IST (g NCLUSIO work investi cal simulati wide, namel and Istanb rized as foll the Po Plain actual spat recordings b the estimate out to be co spatial corr suggesting owing to its the influenc magnitude h (i) higher r the more ‘d extended ar 4.3) as a co (4-IST), im a result cou rea as well eneity of th elation in n ease of the lt rupture.

es for the diff green) and (le

NS igated the ions, obtain y, Po Plai bul (Turkey) lows: n applicatio tial correlat both at shor es of range omparable w relation esti that spatial s strong dep ce of sourc have been i ranges, i.e. directive’ sc rea (section onsequence mplying a gr uld be expl l as the nea he fault sur near-field is variability fferent spectr eft) slip distr

spatial cor ned with the in (Norther )), have bee on demonstr tion structu rt and long p s from PBS with the ava

imates show l variability pendence on ce and wav investigated larger corre cenarios tha n 4.3); (ii) of directio 13 round moti ained consi ar source re rface reduce s expected y of wave p ral compone ribution. rrelation str e approach rn Italy), T en consider rates that th ure of grou periods (sec Ss for the f ailable litera w a marked y of ground n local geol ve propagat d. Such com elation dista at produce a marked d onality induc on less corr idering that egion: this es the cohe with respe paths invol

ents for the sc

ructure of described i Thessalonik ed. The mo he 3D PBSs und motion ction 4.1); four case stu ature studies

d variability motion is r logy and sou tion effects mparisons, e ances ofgro high levels dependence ced by faul related at lo t the higher is expected rency of m ct to small ving differe cenarios Mw 3D broadb n Section 2 ki (Northern ost relevant s can reprod n with rang udies under s on the topi y, especiall region- and urce effects , including ven if prelim ound shakin of ground on azimuth lt rupture pr ong period r is magnit d to widen motion. Ther l magnitude rent portion w 7.0, 2-IST band physic 2. Four app n Greece), conclusion duce accura ges consiste r considerat ic (section 4 ly at short d scenario- s in near con directivity iminary, rev ng, are obta shaking on th is found ropagation; for high tude, the the area refore, a e events ns of the (red) and cs-based lications Beijing ns can be ately the ent with tion turn 4.2); periods, specific, nditions; , and of veal that: ained for n a more (section (iii) the

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