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Comparing the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy and Tuscany [Italy]

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Martin Scheinin

Mar 30th 2020, 8 tweets, 4 min read

@MartinScheinin

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Posting a little thread on the

#COVID19 #coronavirus

epidemic in Italy, presented as a

comparison between Lombardy

and Tuscany. This of course is of

special interest to us living in

Tuscany but there may be good

news here for Europe. All data

come from official sources. 1/7 #

First, total number of verified Coronavirus

cases. All graphs are in logarithmic scale,

reflecting the exponential spread of the

epidemic. The good news here is that the

curves have the same shape, i.e. Tuscany is

not following the path of Lombardy with a

delay of some weeks. 2/7

#

These two curves represent Coronavirus

hospitalisations in Lombardy and Tuscany.

Again, the shape is the same. We see a

rapid escalation in Tuscany hospitalisations

between 2 and 9 March which is just before

the Lombardy lockdown. 3/7

#

This is about Coronavirus patients in

intensive care. We see a rapid rise in

Tuscany just after 9 March, reflecting the

hospitalisations that had taken place some

days earlier. Note the convincing flattening

the curve also in Tuscany in recent days.

4/7

#

Confirmed Coronavirus deaths in

Lombardy and Tuscany. Again, the curves

have the same shape. The death toll is still

rising in both regions but not with the same

level of exponential growth as some weeks

ago, or in Tuscany particularly around 12

March. 5/7

#

Finally, daily increase of ongoing verified

Coronavirus cases in Lombardy and

Tuscany. Much more (random) variation

from day to day but, again, the curves have

the same shape. This gives rise to a hope of

a simultaneous shift from exponential to

linear growth in both areas. 6/7

#

Conclusion: The data suggest that Tuscany

will not face the monumental dimensions

of the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy.

Of course there are many tragedies here as

well. Many thanks to

(my

son, who is a health data wizard) for the

data visualisation. 7/7

@IlariScheinin

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Related hashtags

Related hashtags

#COVID19

#coronavirus

Related threads

Related threads

Janmajit Shankar Sinha

#Thread

- 1/15

#COVID

-19

#CoronaVirus

THE GREAT CHINESE CONSPIRACY!

How to dominate the world quickly? 1.

Create a virus and antidote. 2. Spread the

virus. 3. A demonstration of efficiency,

building hospitals in a few days. After all,

you were already prepared, with the..

2/15 projects, ordering the equipment,

hiring the labor, the water and sewage

network, the prefabricated building

materials and stocked in an impressive

volume. 4. Cause chaos in the world,

starting with Europe. 5. Quickly plaster the

economy of dozens of countries.

3/15 6. Stop production lines in factories in

other countries. 7. Cause stock markets to

fall and buy companies at a bargain price. 8.

Quickly control the epidemic in your

country. After all, you were already

prepared. 9. Lower the price of

commodities, including the price of..

Read 15 tweets

@janmajit07

Mar 23rd 2020

रोशनी

!

#Thread

: Nice explanation by way of images

on why social distancing, lockdown and

quarantine is important to prevent Corona

Virus. Please share.

#SocialDistancing

#WuhanVirus

#ChinaCoronaVirus

#coronavirus

1/n

Thread:

#SocialDistancing

#WuhanVirus

#ChinaCoronaVirus

#coronavirus

2/n

Thread:

#SocialDistancing

#WuhanVirus

#ChinaCoronaVirus

#coronavirus

3/n

Read 11 tweets

@RoshaniH81

Mar 19th 2020

captain foresight

you guys, i’m having a lovely time in my

eerily deserted city. i already had covid19 in

early feb, i stay stocked up on supplies + i

love a reason to knit and read at home all

day i know it’s new to a lot of people,

though, so let me be your infectious

disease/shut-in guide. AMA

the first thing everybody’s going to want to

do is learn how to knit. we’ve all got some

long days at home to put in and you can

only binge so much tv. knitting keeps you

mentally stimulated AND it has a ton of

mental and emotional health benefits to

ease those pandemic nerves.

the next thing you want to do is buy in bulk

and, if possible, get that shit delivered,

rather than go to the store. you live in a

small space and can’t store bulk items, you

say? so do i. get creative. make it work.

you’ll be thankful for that case of tissues

later.

Read 14 tweets

@vanadiumzest

Mar 14th 2020

Rev. Scott Anthony

⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Looks like

@0ctoberReignz

is onto

something here... the image we have been

bombarded with as being “Coronavirus”

(specifically 2019-nCoV) is not an actual

image of

#COVID

. It’s a rendition of

another virus. In fact, we barely have a

decent image of COVID at all!

Here is the best image we have of

#COVID

/

#Coronavirus

from the

#Wuhan

outbreak...

this is it... this is the real image. Doesn’t

exactly look like the pretty modeled image

we saw just a moment ago does it? Nope...

not at all!

What we DO have... is a Electron Scanned

Microscopic image of Influenza A... as

correctly pointed out by

@0ctoberReignz

...

so... WTF?? There is definitely something

way way off going on here

Read 3 tweets

@ScottAnthonyUSA

Mar 4th 2020

Rev. Scott Anthony

⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Coronavirus

#COVID

-19 appears to be

jumping at a rate of 117 new cases per hour.

Monitoring closely as this seems to indicate

a faster rate of infection than was previously

reported. Could be an anomaly. The deaths

did not jump however... so that’s good.

Yesterday’s tweet on the Diamond Princess

coronavirus issue:

Flight issues on Delta and Hawaiian

Airlines:

Read 9 tweets

@ScottAnthonyUSA

Feb 18th 2020

Eric Feigl-Ding

“Where did the

#

come from?” is one of

the most asked questions. First, I don’t like

unsupported conspiracy theories, but it’s a

lingering question.

@sciencemagazine

examined this based on Lancet article.

Nobody knows, but seafood market isn’t

whole story

sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/w…

2. Again, no outright conspiracy theories

please. Here is another explanation: The

new

#coronavirus

is an RNA virus—that is,

viruses that have RNA as their genetic

material rather than DNA—which have a

“high mutation rate,” which allows it to

“change properties very quickly.”

3. The RNA sequences of the

#coronavirus

isolated from 6 patients from the same

household are different from each other

(Lancet), sign of the virus evolving. This

may not be so good to the ear; it suggests

the difficulty of containing this virus”. (from

m.theepochtimes.com/china-underrep…

)

Read 28 tweets

@DrEricDing

Jan 28th 2020

Trending hashtags

Trending hashtags

#CDC

#NovelCoronavirus

#America

#CoronavirusGermany

#NCRI

#Togo

#Zingaretti

#Sugarland

#Iranian

#Panda

#Bangkok

#Norfolk

#CrimesAgainstHumanity

#coronaviruses

#Hubei

#MERS

#OK

#Balkans

#Gaslighting

#France

#coronaflu

#UnitedStates

#coronavirus

#UAE

#China

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08/04/2020, 07:13

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