Comparing the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy and Tuscany [Italy]

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Martin Scheinin

Mar 30th 2020, 8 tweets, 4 min read

@MartinScheinin

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Posting a little thread on the

#COVID19 #coronavirus

epidemic in Italy, presented as a

comparison between Lombardy

and Tuscany. This of course is of

special interest to us living in

Tuscany but there may be good

news here for Europe. All data

come from official sources. 1/7 #

First, total number of verified Coronavirus

cases. All graphs are in logarithmic scale,

reflecting the exponential spread of the

epidemic. The good news here is that the

curves have the same shape, i.e. Tuscany is

not following the path of Lombardy with a

delay of some weeks. 2/7

#

These two curves represent Coronavirus

hospitalisations in Lombardy and Tuscany.

Again, the shape is the same. We see a

rapid escalation in Tuscany hospitalisations

between 2 and 9 March which is just before

the Lombardy lockdown. 3/7

#

This is about Coronavirus patients in

intensive care. We see a rapid rise in

Tuscany just after 9 March, reflecting the

hospitalisations that had taken place some

days earlier. Note the convincing flattening

the curve also in Tuscany in recent days.

4/7

#

Confirmed Coronavirus deaths in

Lombardy and Tuscany. Again, the curves

have the same shape. The death toll is still

rising in both regions but not with the same

level of exponential growth as some weeks

ago, or in Tuscany particularly around 12

March. 5/7

#

Finally, daily increase of ongoing verified

Coronavirus cases in Lombardy and

Tuscany. Much more (random) variation

from day to day but, again, the curves have

the same shape. This gives rise to a hope of

a simultaneous shift from exponential to

linear growth in both areas. 6/7

#

Conclusion: The data suggest that Tuscany

will not face the monumental dimensions

of the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy.

Of course there are many tragedies here as

well. Many thanks to

(my

son, who is a health data wizard) for the

data visualisation. 7/7

@IlariScheinin

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08/04/2020, 07:13

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Comparing the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy and Tuscany [Italy]

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Martin Scheinin

Mar 30th 2020, 8 tweets, 4 min read

@MartinScheinin

! Bookmark " Save as PDF + My Authors

Posting a little thread on the

#COVID19 #coronavirus

epidemic in Italy, presented as a

comparison between Lombardy

and Tuscany. This of course is of

special interest to us living in

Tuscany but there may be good

news here for Europe. All data

come from official sources. 1/7 #

First, total number of verified Coronavirus

cases. All graphs are in logarithmic scale,

reflecting the exponential spread of the

epidemic. The good news here is that the

curves have the same shape, i.e. Tuscany is

not following the path of Lombardy with a

delay of some weeks. 2/7

#

These two curves represent Coronavirus

hospitalisations in Lombardy and Tuscany.

Again, the shape is the same. We see a

rapid escalation in Tuscany hospitalisations

between 2 and 9 March which is just before

the Lombardy lockdown. 3/7

#

This is about Coronavirus patients in

intensive care. We see a rapid rise in

Tuscany just after 9 March, reflecting the

hospitalisations that had taken place some

days earlier. Note the convincing flattening

the curve also in Tuscany in recent days.

4/7

#

Confirmed Coronavirus deaths in

Lombardy and Tuscany. Again, the curves

have the same shape. The death toll is still

rising in both regions but not with the same

level of exponential growth as some weeks

ago, or in Tuscany particularly around 12

March. 5/7

#

Finally, daily increase of ongoing verified

Coronavirus cases in Lombardy and

Tuscany. Much more (random) variation

from day to day but, again, the curves have

the same shape. This gives rise to a hope of

a simultaneous shift from exponential to

linear growth in both areas. 6/7

#

Conclusion: The data suggest that Tuscany

will not face the monumental dimensions

of the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy.

Of course there are many tragedies here as

well. Many thanks to

(my

son, who is a health data wizard) for the

data visualisation. 7/7

@IlariScheinin

#

mentions

#

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

! Tweet

" Share

# Email

$ Keep Current with Martin Scheinin

Stay in touch and get notified when new

unrolls are available from this author!

+ Add to "My Authors" list