Comparing the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy and Tuscany [Italy]

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Martin Scheinin

Mar 30th 2020, 8 tweets, 4 min read


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Posting a little thread on the

#COVID19 #coronavirus

epidemic in Italy, presented as a

comparison between Lombardy

and Tuscany. This of course is of

special interest to us living in

Tuscany but there may be good

news here for Europe. All data

come from official sources. 1/7 #

First, total number of verified Coronavirus

cases. All graphs are in logarithmic scale,

reflecting the exponential spread of the

epidemic. The good news here is that the

curves have the same shape, i.e. Tuscany is

not following the path of Lombardy with a

delay of some weeks. 2/7


These two curves represent Coronavirus

hospitalisations in Lombardy and Tuscany.

Again, the shape is the same. We see a

rapid escalation in Tuscany hospitalisations

between 2 and 9 March which is just before

the Lombardy lockdown. 3/7


This is about Coronavirus patients in

intensive care. We see a rapid rise in

Tuscany just after 9 March, reflecting the

hospitalisations that had taken place some

days earlier. Note the convincing flattening

the curve also in Tuscany in recent days.



Confirmed Coronavirus deaths in

Lombardy and Tuscany. Again, the curves

have the same shape. The death toll is still

rising in both regions but not with the same

level of exponential growth as some weeks

ago, or in Tuscany particularly around 12

March. 5/7


Finally, daily increase of ongoing verified

Coronavirus cases in Lombardy and

Tuscany. Much more (random) variation

from day to day but, again, the curves have

the same shape. This gives rise to a hope of

a simultaneous shift from exponential to

linear growth in both areas. 6/7


Conclusion: The data suggest that Tuscany

will not face the monumental dimensions

of the Coronavirus epidemic in Lombardy.

Of course there are many tragedies here as

well. Many thanks to


son, who is a health data wizard) for the

data visualisation. 7/7





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: Nice explanation by way of images

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you guys, i’m having a lovely time in my

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day i know it’s new to a lot of people,

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the first thing everybody’s going to want to

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Rev. Scott Anthony

⭐ ⭐ ⭐

Looks like


is onto

something here... the image we have been

bombarded with as being “Coronavirus”

(specifically 2019-nCoV) is not an actual

image of


. It’s a rendition of

another virus. In fact, we barely have a

decent image of COVID at all!

Here is the best image we have of




from the



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exactly look like the pretty modeled image

we saw just a moment ago does it? Nope...

not at all!

What we DO have... is a Electron Scanned

Microscopic image of Influenza A... as

correctly pointed out by



so... WTF?? There is definitely something

way way off going on here

Read 3 tweets


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Rev. Scott Anthony

⭐ ⭐ ⭐



-19 appears to be

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Monitoring closely as this seems to indicate

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reported. Could be an anomaly. The deaths

did not jump however... so that’s good.

Yesterday’s tweet on the Diamond Princess

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“Where did the


come from?” is one of

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examined this based on Lancet article.

Nobody knows, but seafood market isn’t

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2. Again, no outright conspiracy theories

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is an RNA virus—that is,

viruses that have RNA as their genetic

material rather than DNA—which have a

“high mutation rate,” which allows it to

“change properties very quickly.”

3. The RNA sequences of the


isolated from 6 patients from the same

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(Lancet), sign of the virus evolving. This

may not be so good to the ear; it suggests

the difficulty of containing this virus”. (from…


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