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Dear Vi��ent, Dear C�oner,

Rome, 23 October 2019

I am writing in response to your letter dated 22 October 2019, in which you sought clarifications concerning the 2020 Draft Budgetary Plan (DBP) submitted by the Italian Government.

With respect to the fiscal policy targets announced in the DBP, in 2020 we aim to achieve a budget balance of -2.2 percent of GDP, unchanged from this year's updated estimate.

While the 2019 outturn implies a 0.3 percentage point improvement in the structural balance, next year may see a slight deterioration in the structural balance (O. I percentage points). The DBP then foresees a subsequent reduction in the deficit to 1.8 percent of GDP in 2021 and 1.4 percent in 2022, which would entail structural improvements of 0.2 percentage points per annum, marking a clear convergence towards Italy's Medium Term Objective.

While we dutifully take note of the Council recommendation conceming the structural adjustment and net primary expenditure growth, our estimates (which are based on the commonly agreed methodology) indicate that the output gap in 2020 will be wider than -1.5 percentage points and, as such, the Italian economy will be in 'bad times.' In such circumstances, the required structural adjustment for a high-debt country is 0.5 percentage points.

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