Two crisis,
two welfare
Massimo De Minicis , INAPP ASTRIL, 10 DECEMBER 2020In the 2000s
Two different, global, crisis
in the early years of the new millennium, 2008-2009, a devastating financial and economic crisis crossed the world economy causing extensive damage to production systems and employment levels. Ten years later a dramatic new crisis hit the world economy
in both situations, Italy reacted with massive economic policies to increase public spending in order to contain the effects of the collapse, trying to preserve employment levels and the productive economic firms
measures have been taken by the Italian governments in two crisis, to stop the fall in employment and produce pubblic income schemes for the workers
paper analyses the nature of this programs,outlining its structure and implementation dynamics
The 2008-09 financial crisis
• the model implemented to contrast crisis effects was CIG (Short Time Work Schemes )
• Two potential objectives:
Insure workers against variations in employment
Prevent potentially excessive layoff in response to shock and stabilize unemployment
• system in its original form, able to support both firm and worker, fully entered in the working and production labour status of the fordist era (Supiot, 1999)
• by the middle of the 2000s, the context of the Italian labor market had clearly changed
• this situation had several surprising effects on the institution of the CIG which amplified and altered its original function
• this dynamic was produced by a disproportionate use of the cassa in
deroga not ordinary CIG
CIG hours authorized from 2008 to 2009. Annual data.
0 200.000.000 400.000.000 600.000.000 800.000.000 1.000.000.000
Cassa integrazione ordinaria - gestione industria Cassa integrazione ordinaria - gestione edilizia Cassa integrazione straordinaria Cassa integrazione in deroga Totale
2009 2008
mdm2
Diapositiva 4
mdm2 Fonte: nostra elaborazione su dati INPS – Osservatorio statistico massimo de minicis; 09/12/2020
CIG hours authorized from 2008 to 2010.
Annual data.
0 200.000.000 400.000.000 600.000.000 800.000.000 1.000.000.000 1.200.000.000 1.400.000.000
Cassa integrazione
ordinaria - gestione industria Cassa integrazione
ordinaria - gestione edilizia Cassa integrazione
straordinaria Cassa integrazione in
deroga Totale
2008 2009 2010
The 2020 health crisis and measures to support workers' incomes
system of income protection for workers it's more composite
measures related to three theoretical kinds: short-time work schemes (1945), flexicurity (2012,2015), generalized public income protections (2019)
there is a lack of integration, rationalization of the system between these policies
once again, radically contingent and fissured work is excluded
yet again there is a necessity for contingent emergency
measures on universal welfare schemes
Income support measures for workers
in the 2020 health crisis (individual benefits accepted)
5.330.000
4.430.000
144.203 250.000
2.589.317
0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000
cassa integrazione indennità e bonus naspi-discoll REM RDC
mdm4
Diapositiva 7
mdm4 Fonte: Inps - Per la cassa integrazione dati al 19.06.2020, per le indennità e bonus dati al 19.06.2020, per Naspi - DIS-COLL dati maggio 2020, per il Rem dati al 19.06.2020, per l'RDC dati annuali.
massimo de minicis; 09/12/2020
The impact of crisis measures to protect workers income on the labor market
the different structure of the two welfare has also affected on the labour market opposite trends unemployment rate
opposite trends in the inactivity rate
greater public income support influenced the inactivity rate. For millions of atipic workers public income support absent in the 2008 crisis. (Parasubordinati, Self- employed, Seasonal workers tourism, agricultural employed workers, workers in the entertainment industry, on-call workers, casual workers) more the policies of minum income/ partial basic income only partially regard the labour market (RDC not inclusion ordinary, REM emergency)
Diversified trends in unemployment and inactivity rate
Opposite trends in inactivity and unemployment rates
for the social distancing. But deeper causes . Different system of the UI
6,5 6,8
8,3 8,1
9,6 9,4 9,1 8
6,3
-0,20,3 0 0,1
-0,3 0,1 0,2 1,1
2
Diapositiva 9
mdm3 elaborazione grafica su dati ISTAT- serie storiche mensili 3/06/2020 massimo de minicis; 09/12/2020
Conclusions and proposal
Stress of current systems
Overlapping different measures in the absence of a unitary scheme
Absence of a general unemployment insurance (UI in the labour market) combined with a general pubblic basic income (UBI, MI, PBI) system
Trade off security flexibility does not limit the effects of the crisis (Tangian, 2011)
Random alteration of the welfare system caused by the crisis
New Model
INDENNITÀ DI DISOCCUPAZIONE PREVIDENZIALE
CIG, NASpI, DIS-COLL
SUSSIDIO NEL MERCATO DEL LAVORO ASSISTENZIALE
Indennità, Bonus, Fondo ultima istanza, Rem, RDC non inclusione
LABOUR MARKET UI
mdm1
Diapositiva 11
mdm1 Labour Market
massimo de minicis; 08/12/2020
