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Tailor-made decarbonisation scenarios for Europe powered by the EUCalc model

Luís Costa

Potsdam institute for Climate Impact Reseach RD2 - Climate Resilience

EUCalculator - Town-hall event

A new paradigm for the climate transition

Rome, 13

th

February 2020

(2)

Outline

• Objectives

• EUCalc in the existing modelling landscape

• Defining features of the EUCalc model

• Demonstration

• Results of the EUCalc model

• My2050

(3)

Objectives

• New energy model for non-experts to support European and National decarbonisation plans.

• Access to model results and ability to modify its assumptions (within plausible boundaries).

Accessible

User-centric

(4)

Objectives

• New energy model for non-experts to support European and National decarbonisation plans.

• Access to model results and ability to modify its assumptions (within plausible boundaries).

• Explore the option space for decarbonisation across sectors and associated impacts.

• Promote the transparency via model co-design with sectoral experts, open-source and detailed documentation.

Transparent Wide option space

Accessible

User-centric

(5)

EUCalc model in the existing modelling landscape

Comprehensive energy system, economy interactions

Engineering- based, sector

specific

(6)

Transparency and usability by non-experts Depth of insights

(e.g., carbon pricing, building block)

EUCalc model in the existing

modelling landscape

(7)

1993/1994

2006 1998/2002

late 2000s Historical development of modelling tools

used by the EU

2017/2019

EUCalc model in the existing modelling landscape

Searching for the “sweet spot”

10 y ea r+

(8)

Transition Pathway Explorer (user-centric web-interface)

From idea to final product

(9)

Transition Pathway Explorer (user-centric web-interface)

From idea to final product

(10)

The framework

(co-creation, stakeholder, open-source) Transition Pathway Explorer

(user-centric web-interface)

From idea to final product

(11)

EUCalc-model

(granular, multi-sector, 29 countries)

The framework

(co-creation, stakeholder, open-source) Transition Pathway Explorer

(user-centric web-interface)

From idea to final product

(12)

The EUCalc model

(13)

Defining features of the EUCalc

• Levers & ambition levels

• Consultation workshops

• Open source/transparent

• Transboundary CO 2

Se ct o r

1

4 3 2

Historical trends

Transformational Very ambitious

Not reaching full potential

(14)

Defining features of the EUCalc

• Levers & ambition levels

• Consultation workshops

• Open source/transparent

• Transboundary CO 2

Se ct o r

1

4 3 2

Historical trends

Transformational Very ambitious

Not reaching full potential

(15)

Defining features of the EUCalc

Motivated expert

Consultation workshop on lifestyles (Brighton 2017) • Levers & ambition levels

• Consultation workshops

• Open source/transparent

• Transboundary

170+ participants in 9 consultation workshops

+1000 stakeholders mapped

(16)

Academia

Civil society Private

sector Public institutions International organizations

Defining features of the EUCalc

Motivated expert

Consultation workshop on lifestyles (Brighton 2017) • Levers & ambition levels

• Consultation workshops

• Open source/transparent

• Transboundary

170+ participants in 9 consultation workshops +1000 stakeholders mapped

Participation breakdown

(17)

Defining features of the EUCalc

• Levers & ambition levels

• Consultation workshops

• Open source/transparent

• Transboundary

Documentation Source code

(18)

Defining features of the EUCalc

• Levers & ambition levels

• Consultation workshops

• Open source/transparent

• Transboundary

• EUCalc outputs from pre-defined scenarios (consistency)

• Interfaced to GTAP via aggregation

• Constitute in effect a “European” perturbation to the world

• Perturbation resolved by GTAP

(19)

The Transition Pathway Explorer

(TPE)

(20)

The Transition Pathway Explorer (TPE)

Levers & levels

Scenarios

(21)

The Transition Pathway Explorer (TPE)

Outputs

Levers & levels Scenarios

Objective

(22)

The Transition Pathway Explorer (TPE)

Demonstration

http://tool.european-calculator.eu

(23)

Decarbonization of the building sector

• Renovation rate is 3% p.a.

• Demolition rate is 1% p.a.

• 30% of the renovations are medium and 70% deep.

• 30% of new buildings are medium efficient,

70% are highly-efficient.

(24)

Decarbonization of the building sector

• Renovation rate is 3% p.a.

• Demolition rate is 1% p.a.

• 30% of the renovations are medium and 70% deep.

• 30% of new buildings are medium efficient, 70% are highly-efficient.

• Fossil fuel phase-out for heat : gas -95%; coal -95%;

oil -95% in 2050.

• Substitution by heat pumps (60%), biomass (20%),

solar (12%), geothermal (4%), biogas (2%), and

biofuel (2%).

(25)

Decarbonization of the building sector

• Renovation rate is 3% p.a.

• Demolition rate is 1% p.a.

• 30% of the renovations are medium and 70% deep.

• 30% of new buildings are medium efficient, 70% are highly-efficient.

Rebounds in manufacturing (2050 vs 2020) due to building renovation:

• Cement +18%

• Glass +33%

• Lime +66%

(26)

Electrification of transport

• Electrification of transport without shift to renewables leads to rebound emissions in power (even with coal phase-out by 2030).

• Decarbonisation pathways need to be defined as concerted across sectors.

(27)

Electrification of transport

• “Downstream” implication on minerals by scaling-up renewable energy.

• Very-high but isolated ambition increases

the chances of rebound effects.

(28)

More than materials and emissions

2050

(EUREF) 2050 (Ambitious)

-45% -64%

Reductions of excess deaths in due to PM2.5 compared to 2015

Still to come:

• Employment

• Transboundary effects

(29)

The role of changing lifestyles

GHG budget for EU to stay below 1.5 degrees.

GHG emissions from the EU until 2050.

Scenario of maximum technological ambition without changes in Lifestyles

(30)

GHG emissions from the EU until 2050.

Scenario of maximum technological ambition with changes in Lifestyles

GHG budget for EU to stay below 1.5 degrees.

The role of changing lifestyles

(31)

The role of changing lifestyles

• Changes in lifestyles are crucial but not sufficient for reaching net-zero.

• They are complementary in easing some of the technological efforts needed

but not a solution in itself.

(32)

My2050

(33)

My2050

(34)

My2050

(35)

Thank you!

Luís Costa

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) RD2: Climate resilience/Urban transformations

Email: carvalho@pik-potsdam.de

EUCalculator project: http://www.european-calculator.eu

Transition Pathway Explorer: http://tool.european-calculator.eu

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