• Non ci sono risultati.

Quaderni di STATISTICA

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Condividi "Quaderni di STATISTICA"

Copied!
26
0
0

Testo completo

(1)

CENTRO PER LA FORMAZIONE IN ECONOMIA E POLITICA DELLO SVILUPPO RURALE UNIVERSITÀ DI NAPOLI FEDERICO II - DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE STATISTICHE UNIVERSITÀ DI SALERNO - DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE ECONOMICHE E STATISTICHE

Quaderni di STATISTICA

VOLUME 8 - 2006

LIGUORI EDITORE

(2)

Volume 8, anno 2006

ISSN 1594-3739 (edizione a stampa)

Registrazione al n. 5264 del 6/12/2001 presso il Tribunale di Napoli ISBN-13 88 - 207 - 4046 - X

Direttore responsabile: Gennaro Piccolo

© 2006 by Liguori Editore Tutti i diritti sono riservati

Prima edizione italiana Dicembre 2006

Finito di stampare in Italia nel mese di Dicembre 2006 da OGL - Napoli

Questa opera è protetta dalla Legge sul diritto d’autore (Legge n. 633/1941).

Tutti i diritti, in particolare quelli relativi alla traduzione, alla citazione, alla riproduzione in qualsiasi forma, all’uso delle illustrazioni, delle tabelle e del materiale software a corredo, alla trasmissione radiofonica o televisiva, alla registrazione analogica o digitale, alla pubblicazione e diffusione attraverso la rete Internet sono riservati, anche nel caso di utilizzo parziale.

La riproduzione di questa opera, anche se parziale o in copia digitale, è ammessa solo ed esclusivamente nei limiti stabiliti dalla Legge ed è soggetta all’autorizzazione scritta dell’Editore.

La violazione delle norme comporta le sanzioni previste dalla legge.

Il regolamento per l’uso dei contenuti e dei servizi presenti sul sito della Casa Editrice Liguori è disponibile al seguente indirizzo: http://www.liguori.it/politiche_contatti/default.asp?c=legal

L’utilizzo in questa pubblicazione di denominazioni generiche, nomi commerciali e marchi registrati, anche se non specificamente identificati, non implica che tali denominazioni o marchi non siano protetti dalle relative leggi o regolamenti.

Il C.F.E.P.S.R. si avvale per la stampa dei Quaderni di Statistica del contributo dell’Istituto Banco di Napoli - Fondazione.

Amministrazione e diffusione:

Liguori Editore - via Posillipo, 394 - I 80123 Napoli http://www.liguori.it - eMail dircomm@liguori.it

La carta utilizzata per la stampa di questo volume è inalterabile, priva di acidi , a PH neutro, conforme alle norme UNI EN ISO 9706×, realizzata con materie prime fibrose vergini provenienti da piantagioni rinnovabili e prodotti ausiliari assolutamente naturali, non inquinanti e totalmente biodegradabili.

(3)

4XDGHUQLGL6WDWLVWLFD

9RO

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWLF



DQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ





*LXVHSSH%DOLUDQR

'LSDUWLPHQWRGL6WXGL$PHULFDQL&XOWXUDOLH/LQJXLVWLFL

8QLYHUVLWjGL1DSROL³/¶2ULHQWDOH´

(PDLOEDOLUDQR#OLEHURLW

0DUFHOOD&RUGXDV 

'LSDUWLPHQWRGL6FLHQ]H6WDWLVWLFKH

8QLYHUVLWjGL1DSROL)HGHULFR,,

(PDLOFRUGXDV#XQLQDLW

 

6XPPDU\,QWKLVDUWLFOHVRPHVWDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVDUHDSSOLHGWRDQDO\VHDKXPRURXV

79VNHWFKVKRZ*RRGQHVV*UDFLRXV0H7KHW\SLFDOWH[WDQGFRUSXVDQDO\VLVEDVHG

RQWKHIUHTXHQF\DQGGLVWULEXWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOZRUGVRURQUHFXUUHQWSKUDVHRORJ\FDQ

RQO\SURYLGHDILUVWGHVFULSWLYHLQVLJKWLQWRDKXPRURXV79SURGXFW,QDGGLWLRQWRWH[W

IHDWXUHV WZR RWKHU DVSHFWV PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG WKH SUHVHQFH RI YHUEDO DQG YLVXDO

KXPRURXVVWDQFHVDQGWKHZD\WKHDXGLHQFHSHUFHLYHWKHP7KHDUWLFOHGHVFULEHVWKH

UHVXOWVIURPWKHWH[WXDODQDO\VLVRIWKHVKRZDQGIURPDVXUYH\VWXG\FRQFHUQLQJWKH

RSLQLRQV RI YLHZHUV RQ WKH W\SH RI KXPRXU ZKLFK FKDUDFWHUL]HV WKLV SDUWLFXODU 79

SURJUDPPH

.H\ZRUGV7H[WXDOGDWD6FRUHGDWD+XPRXUVWXGLHV



 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

 5HVHDUFKRQODQJXDJHDQGKXPRXUGHVSLWHDORQJWUDGLWLRQDWWDLQHG

D FHQWUDO SRVLWLRQ LQ WKH VWXG\ RI KXPRURXV GLVFRXUVH RQO\ LQ WKH ODWH

V7KHPRVWLQIOXHQWLDOWKHRU\LQWKHILHOGRIOLQJXLVWLFVLVJHQHUDOO\



7KLVDUWLFOHLVWKHMRLQWUHVHDUFKRIERWKDXWKRUV*%DOLUDQRKDVZULWWHQSDUDJUDSKV

0&RUGXDVKDVZULWWHQSDUDJUDSKV

(4)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



UHIHUUHGWRDV7KH6HPDQWLF6FULSW7KHRU\RI+XPRU 667+ GHYHORSHG

E\9LFWRU5DVNLQ  667+DVVXPHVWKDWDMRNHLVDOZD\VUHODWHGWR

WZRGLIIHUHQWPHQWDOIUDPHV VFULSWV GHILQHGDVDQRUJDQL]HGFKXQNRI

LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ JLYHQ OH[HPHV WKDW DUH RSSRVHG WR HDFK RWKHU LQ D

VSHFLDO ZD\ ,Q SDUWLFXODU D VFULSW LV D VWUXFWXUHG VHW RI LQIRUPDWLRQ

DERXWDQREMHFWDQHYHQWDQDFWLRQDQGDWDORZHUOHYHOLWLVVLPLODUWR

WKHOH[LFDOPHDQLQJRIDZRUG6FULSWVDUHFRQQHFWHGE\OLQNVZKLFKFDQ

EH RI GLIIHUHQW VHPDQWLF W\SHV VXFK DV V\QRQ\P\ K\SRQ\P\

DQWRQ\P\HWF

7KH PDLQ K\SRWKHVLV RI WKH 667+ HVWDEOLVKHV WZR QHFHVVDU\ DQG

VXIILFLHQWFRQGLWLRQVIRUDWH[WWREHIXQQ\

D  WKHWH[WLVFRPSDWLEOHIXOO\RULQSDUWZLWKWZRGLVWLQFWVFULSWV

E  WKH WZR GLVWLQFW VFULSWV DUH RSSRVLWHV LH WKH QHJDWLRQ RI HDFK

RWKHULIRQO\IRUWKHIXQFWLRQRIDJLYHQWH[W RQDOLVWRIGLFKRWRPLHV

VXFKDVUHDOXQUHDOSRVVLEOHLPSRVVLEOHQRUPDODEQRUPDOHWF 5DVNLQ

II 

7KLVDSSURDFKKDVEHHQZLGHO\DSSOLHGWRMRNHVWKDWLVVKRUWWH[WV

ZLWK D YHU\ WLJKW QDUUDWLYH VWUXFWXUH $ IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI

ORQJHU KXPRURXV WH[WVZDV GHYHORSHG E\$WWDUGR    ZKR

LQWURGXFHGWKH*HQHUDO7KHRU\RI9HUEDO+XPRU *79+ E\DGGLQJWR

WKLV VHPDQWLF WKHRU\ D QXPEHU RI SDUDPHWHUV RU NQRZOHGJH UHVRXUFHV

ODQJXDJH QDUUDWLYH VWUDWHJ\ WDUJHW VLWXDWLRQ VFULSW RSSRVLWLRQ DQG

ORJLFDO PHFKDQLVP  WKDW FDQ FRRSHUDWH LQ WKH FRPSOH[ SURFHVV RI

KXPRXU SURGXFWLRQ DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ $ IXUWKHU H[WHQVLRQ ZDV

LQWURGXFHG E\ %DOLUDQR    LQ RUGHU WR LQFOXGH PXOWLPRGDO

KXPRURXV SURGXFWV VXFK DV ILOPV RU 79 SURGXFWLRQV ZKHUH VFULSW

RSSRVLWLRQVPD\EHJHQHUDWHGE\WKHLQWHUDFWLRQVRIVSHHFKLPDJHVDQG

VRXQG

7KH DLP RI WKLV DUWLFOH LV WKH VWXG\ RI D KXPRURXV 79 VNHWFK VKRZ

IURP D TXDQWLWDWLYH SRLQW RI YLHZ 7KLV LV D UDWKHU FRPSOH[ WDVN JLYHQ

WKHPXOWLPRGDOQDWXUHRIWKHSURGXFWXQGHULQYHVWLJDWLRQ$VDPDWWHURI

IDFW D ¶FODVVLFDO· WUDGLWLRQDO WH[WXDO DQDO\VLV ZKLFK PDLQO\ UHOLHV RQ

GHVFULSWLYH WRROV VXFK DV WH[WXDO IUHTXHQFLHV DQDO\VLV FDQ RQO\ KHOS

LGHQWLI\ VRPH OLQJXLVWLF IHDWXUHV FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ WKH WH[W ,QVWHDG LQ D



 6HH IRU LQVWDQFH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV E\ %RODVFR    /HEDUW DQG 6DOHP  

2DNHV  DQG6WXEEV  IRUDFULWLFDOGLVFXVVLRQ

(5)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

KXPRURXV79SURGXFWWKHUHDUHRWKHUIHDWXUHVWKDWDUHUHOHYDQW)LUVWRI

DOOWKHLQFRQJUXLWLHVOHDGLQJWRWKHKXPRURXVHIIHFWVPD\EHUHODWHGWR

LPDJHV DQG VRXQGV 6HFRQGO\ SHRSOH PD\ SHUFHLYH DQG UHVROYH WKH

LQFRQJUXLWLHVXQGHUO\LQJWKHKXPRURXVLQVWDQFHVLQDGLIIHUHQWZD\DQG

WKH\PD\H[SUHVVDGLIIHUHQWGHJUHHRIKXPRXUDSSUHFLDWLRQ

,Q WKLV DUWLFOH ZH H[DPLQH D VXFFHVVIXO %ULWLVK 79 SURJUDPPH

*RRGQHVV *UDFLRXV 0H **0  DQG VKRZ KRZ D YDULHW\ RI VWDWLVWLFDO

WHFKQLTXHV FDQ KHOS GHVFULEH WKH XQGHUO\LQJ KXPRXU DQG FXOWXUDO

VLJQLILFDQFH

7KHDUWLFOHLVRUJDQL]HGDVIROORZV6HFWLRQGHVFULEHVWKHFRUSXVD

%ULWLVK 79 VNHWFK VKRZ DQG GLVFXVVHV VRPH OLQJXLVWLF IHDWXUHV RI WKH

WH[W6HFWLRQLQWURGXFHVDPRGHOIRUHYDOXDWLRQGDWDFROOHFWHGWKURXJK

DVXUYH\VWXG\FRQFHUQLQJWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIVRPHKXPRURXVVNHWFKHV

)LQDOO\VRPHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVDERXWLQIOXHQFHRIWKHHWKQLFRULJLQVRQWKH

GLIIHUHQWSHUFHSWLRQRI**0¶VW\SHRIKXPRXUDQGLWVUROHLQWKHVRFLDO

VSKHUHZLOOFRQFOXGHWKHSDSHU



7KHFRUSXV*RRGQHVV*UDFLRXV0H

 *RRGQHVV*UDFLRXV0HLVD%ULWLVK$VLDQ79FRPHG\EURDGFDVWRQ

%%& IURP  WR  ,W ZDV WKH ILUVW VNHWFKVKRZ FUHDWHG DQG

SHUIRUPHGE\,QGLDQDFWRUVWRDWWUDFWDVL]HDEOHZKLWH%ULWLVKDXGLHQFH

DFKLHYLQJPRUHWKDQPLOOLRQYLHZHUV DQGWREHFRPHDELJ79KLW

DQGDFXOWXUDOSKHQRPHQRQ

7KLV JUHDW VXFFHVVZRXOG KDYH EHHQ XQWKLQNDEOH MXVW D IHZ \HDUV

EHIRUH,QWKHVDQGVWKHPDLQVWUHDPPHGLDRIWHQSRUWUD\HG

$VLDQVLQWHUPVRIQHJDWLYHVWHUHRW\SHVDQGRQO\LQWKHVGLGWKH

VHFRQGDQGWKLUG%ULWLVK$VLDQJHQHUDWLRQVPDQDJHWREUHDNWKURXJKD

GRPLQDQW ZKLWHRULHQWHG LPDJH EHFRPLQJ PRUH FRQVSLFXRXV LQ WKH

PHGLDDIWHULQFUHDVLQJWKHLUSUHVHQFHDQGUROHLQWKHZRUOGRIEXVLQHVV

FXOWXUHDQGVSRUW /XFNHWW6DZKQH\ **0LVWKHUHVXOWRI

VXFK VRFLDO FKDQJHV DQG FRQVWLWXWHV D SDUWLFXODU H[DPSOH RI %ULWDLQ¶V

PXOWLFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQVZKLFKWU\DQGUHSUHVHQWQHZK\EULGLGHQWLWLHV

7KH 79 SURJUDPPH KDV D VW\OH VLPLODU WR WKDW RI FODVVLFDO %ULWLVK

FRPHG\VKRZVDQGXVHVDYHU\DFFHVVLEOHNLQGRIKXPRXUUDQJLQJIURP

VDWLUH WR VODSVWLFN ILOP DQG 79 VSRRIV KLODULRXV IDUFHV DQG UHFXUULQJ

(6)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



FKDUDFWHUV+RZHYHUWKHVWRULHVRI**0¶VVNHWFKHVZHUHDOOLQVSLUHGE\

WKH DFWRUVZULWHUV GLDVSRULF H[SHULHQFHV VXJJHVWLQJ RQ WKH RQH KDQG

WKH GLIILFXOW UHORFDWLRQ RI µKRPH¶ WKH VWUXJJOH WR HVWDEOLVK D SHUVRQDO

QHZ GLPHQVLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH KRVW QDWLRQ DQG RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH

PDUNHGGHVLUHIRUDUHDO,QGLDQFXOWXUHDEURDG$OOWKHVNHWFKHVFRQYH\

WKHQHHGIRUDQDXWKHQWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI,QGLDZKLFKVHHPVWREHYHU\

ZHDN DQG :HVWHUQLVHG ZLWKLQ WKH LPDJHU\ RI VHFRQG DQG WKLUG

JHQHUDWLRQV 7KHVH IHHOLQJV DUH H[SUHVVHG E\ PHDQV RI D KXPRURXV

QDUUDWLRQZKLFKRIWHQUHYHUVHVWKHUROHVVRYLHZLQJWKH%ULWLVKIURPDQ

,QGLDQSHUVSHFWLYHRUULGLFXOLQJ,QGLDQVWHUHRW\SHV

7KHFRUSXVREMHFWRIWKLVVWXG\FRQVLVWVRIWKHWKUHHFRPSOHWHVHULHV

RI**0ZKLFKZHUHEURDGFDVWRQ%%&IURP-DQXDU\WKWR)HEUXDU\

WK  IURP 1RYHPEHU WK WR 'HFHPEHU WK  DQG IURP

)HEUXDU\ WK WR 0DUFK VW  (DFK VHULHV LQFOXGHV  HSLVRGHV

FRQWDLQLQJ  WR  VNHWFKHV DOO MLQJOHV VRQJV DQG RWKHU PRGHV RI

PHGLDWHG KXPRURXV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ GLVSOD\HG LQ WKH VNHWFKVKRZ KDYH

EHHQH[FOXGHG,QDOOWKHVHULHVUXQQLQJWLPHFRYHUVDSSUR[LPDWHO\

PLQXWHVRIVSRNHQ(QJOLVKRUJDQL]HGLQVNHWFKHV DERXWUHIHUV

WRUHFXUULQJFKDUDFWHUV 7KHWH[WLQFOXGHVZRUGVZLWK

GLIIHUHQWW\SHVPRUHRYHURILGHQWLILHGW\SHVRFFXUMXVWRQFH

$ SUHOLPLQDU\ FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WKH FRUSXV FDQ EH DFKLHYHG E\

PHDQV RI D YHU\ VLPSOH WH[WXDO IUHTXHQF\ DQDO\VLV 2I FRXUVH WH[WXDO

IUHTXHQF\GRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\LQGLFDWHZKDWYLHZHUVODXJKDWRUQRWLFH

DQG UHPHPEHU LQ WKH WH[W QHYHUWKHOHVV LW PD\ SURYLGH VRPH LQGLUHFW

LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHFRQWHQWV

$ OLVW RI WKH WRS WHQ YHUE OHPPDVGRHV QRW UHYHDO DQ\ VSHFLDO

IHDWXUHV

.12:   7+,1.   &20(   /22.   6((  

6$<   0($1   :$17   7$.(   /,.(  





,QWKLVDUWLFOHDZRUG W\SH LVLQJHQHUDODQ\GLVWLQFWLYHVWULQJRIFKDUDFWHUV LQFOXGLQJ

DSRVWURSKHVDQGK\SKHQEXWH[FOXGLQJRWKHUSXQFWXDWLRQ 7KHJURXSLQJRIZRUGVLQOHPPDVLV

H[SOLFLWHO\ LQGLFDWHG 0RUHRYHU ZH DGRSW WKH IROORZLQJ QRWDWLRQ WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI D ZRUG LV

GHOLPLWHGE\WKHSDUHQWKHVHV  DQGDVWUHWFKRIWH[WLVLQFOXGHGLQ«!7KHUHVXOWVGLVFXVVHG

LQWKLVVHFWLRQZHUHREWDLQHGE\PHDQVRIWKHIROORZLQJVRIWZDUHV:RUG6PLWK7RROV 6FRWW

 NI1*UDP )OHWFKHU 930 <RXPDQV 

(7)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

7KH PRVW IUHTXHQW YHUE OHPPD DUH XVXDOO\ YHU\ IUHTXHQW LQ VSRNHQ

(QJOLVKZKHQUHODWHGWRVRPHFROORTXLDOH[SUHVVLRQV+RZHYHUPDQ\

RFFXUUHQFHV RI /22. RQO\  RXW RI  UHIHU WR WKH FRPPRQ

H[SUHVVLRQ «ORRN«!  DUH LQ H[SUHVVLRQV ZKLFK LQWURGXFH D

FRPSDULVRQRUDWWUDFWDWWHQWLRQWRDQREMHFWVXEMHFWFRQVWLWXWLQJWKHEDVLV

RI KXPRURXV LQVWDQFHV 6LPLODUO\ WKH SUHSRVLWLRQ /,.(   DQG WKH

H[SUHVVLRQV .,1' 2)   6257 2)   DUH RIWHQ FROORFDWHG ZLWK

FRPLFDO LWHPV VXFK DV «,P OLNH D WZHOYH LQFK MXQJOH WUDFN RQ

YLQ\O! «, OLNH WR WKLQN RI P\VHOI DV D VRUW RI 9LDJUD IRU WKH

VRXO«!,QVL[GD\V+HFUHDWHG+HDYHQDQG(DUWKDQGHYHU\WKLQJRQ

WKHPDQGRQWKHVHYHQWKGD\KHUHVWHG:KDWNLQGRI,QGLDQGRHVQW

ZRUNRQ6XQGD\V"!

7DEOHLOOXVWUDWHVDOLVWRIWKHDGMHFWLYHVZKLFKDUHERWKIUHTXHQWDQG

VLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHIUHTXHQWWKDQLQWKH%1&VDPSOHU7KHSUHVHQFHRI

PDQ\ DGMHFWLYHV UHIHUULQJ WR HWKQLF RU UHOLJLRXV RULJLQV TXDOLILHV WKH

PDLQ IRFXV RI **0 7KLV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ LV IXUWKHU VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH

SUHVHQFHRIRWKHUZRUGVZKLFKDUHQRWGHWHFWHGDVNH\ZRUGVEXWUHIHUWR

RWKHU FRQQRWDWLRQV RI HWKQLF JURXSV ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR (1*/,6+   ZH

ILQG %5,7,6+%5,7   DQG DOVR WKH UHIHUHQFH WR WKH FRXQWULHV

(1*/$1'   DQG %5,7$,1   6LPLODUO\ ZH ILQG ,1',$1  

$6,$1   EXW DOVR 3$.,3$.,67$1,   381-$%,   DQG

,1',$   $6,$   3$.,67$1   7KH HWKQLF FRQQRWDWLRQ LV

FRPSOHWHG E\ WKH WHUPV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH UHOLJLRXV EHOLHIV DQG FXVWRPV

6,.+  +,1'8  +,1'8,60  086/,0  DQGE\WKHZRUGV

6.,1  DQG:+,7(  3$/(  DQG%52:1  ZKLFKDUHDOZD\V

XVHGWRUHIHULQDGLUHFWRULQGLUHFWZD\WRWKHFRORXURIWKHVNLQ

7KLVOLVWVKRXOGQRWVXJJHVWWKHSUHVHQFHRIDVHULRXVFRQWH[WEHFDXVH

WKHVHZRUGVDUHPDLQO\XVHGLQDFRPLFZD\VRWKDWZHILQGVWUHWFKHVRI

WH[WV DV «7KH ILUVW 3XQMDEL DGXOW SOHDVXUH OLQH«! WKH 6LNK ILUH

EULJDGH! «3URIHVVLRQDO +LQGX 3XQMDEL ER\ VHHNV VXLWDEOH JLUO

IRU«! «PRGHOWXUQHGDFWUHVV +LQGL &UDZIRUG«! D VHULHV RI

VNHWFKHVVWDUWLQJZLWKDZHOFRPHWRD79SURJUDPPHVXFKDV$VLDQ

VKRSSLQJFKDQQHO!$VLDQ$UWV!$VLDQ7RS*HDU!ZKHUHZHILQGWKH



 7KH %1& VDPSOHU FRQVLVWV RI RQH PLOOLRQ ZRUGV RI ERWK VSRNHQ DQG ZULWWHQ %ULWLVK

(QJOLVK H[WUDFWHG IURP WKH PLOOLRQZRUG %ULWLVK 1DWLRQDO &RUSXV DV SURYLGHG E\ 6FRWW

 

(8)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



«$VLDQPRWRULVW«!DQDEVXUGGDQFH«3XQMDELVRQ,FH«!DQGVR

RQ 0RUHRYHU DV PHQWLRQHG EHIRUH WKH UROH RI %ULWLVK(QJOLVK DQG

$VLDQ,QGLDQ DUH RIWHQ UHYHUVHG VR WKDW H[SUHVVLRQV VXFK DV :H

%ULWLVK«! :H¶UH %ULWLVK«! «D SHFXOLDUO\ %ULWLVK KDELW«!

«WUDGLWLRQDO %ULWLVK ZD\ RI OLIH«! « WUDGLWLRQDO %ULWLVK

DFWLYLWLHV«!SURGXFHDKXPRURXVHIIHFWZKHQSURQRXQFHGE\DQ,QGLDQ

PDQSUHWHQGLQJWREHKDYHOLNHDWUXHµ%ULWLVKJHQWOHPDQ¶

 7DEOH0DLQDGMHFWLYHV

 $GMHFWLYHV

 2FFXUUHQFH



VWDQGDUGL]HG

IUHTXHQF\

HYHU\

ZRUGV 

,QGLDQ  

/LWWOH  

$VLDQ  

2OG  

(QJOLVK  

%LJ  

1LFH  

7UDGLWLRQDO  

0RGHUQ  

+DSS\  

)DW  

)XQQ\  

0XVOLP  

6WXSLG  

+LQGX  

(WKQLF  

)DQF\  

3DNL3DNLVWDQL  

0DUYHOORXV  

(9)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

7KHUHFDOORIRULJLQVDQGWUDGLWLRQVLVVWUHQJWKHQHGE\WKHZRUGV

$87+(17,&   &/$66,&   *(18,1(   25,*,1$/  

2/')$6+,21('   75$',7,21$/$/,67$//<  

ZKLFK DUH IUHTXHQWO\ UHODWHG WR DVSHFWV RI OLIH ,Q WKH WH[W ZH ILQG

H[SUHVVLRQVVXFKDV«ROGIDVKLRQHGZHGGLQJ«!«ROGWUDGLWLRQDO

JHQGHU UROHV«! «WUDGLWLRQDO ,QGLDQ JLUOV«! RXU WUDGLWLRQDO

YDOXHV«! ZKLFK EHFRPH SDUW RI D VFULSW RSSRVLWLRQ VDWLUL]LQJ WKH

FRQVHUYDWLYHYLHZRI,QGLDQFXVWRPVE\OLQNLQJDQRUPDOVWDWHRIDIIDLUV

WKH FRPPRQ %ULWLVK OLIH VW\OH  WR DQ DEQRUPDO VWDWH RI DIIDLUV WKH

H[DJJHUDWHGWUDGLWLRQDO,QGLDQOLIHVW\OH 

7KH ZRUGV 02'(51   DQG 1(:   DUH RWKHU HOHPHQWV RI WKH

KXPRURXV PHFKDQLVP VLQFH WKH\ DUH XVXDOO\ UHODWHG WR FRQIOLFWLQJ

DVSHFWV RI WKH ZHVWHUQHDVWHUQ OLIH DV LQ WKH H[SUHVVLRQV «7RGD\V

PRGHUQ,QGLDQZRPDQ'UHVVHGLQDIXOOOHQJWKEXUTD«!«%URZQLV

WKHQHZEODFNLQQLW«!«,JHWDOOWKHPRGHUQGLVHDVHVEHFDXVH,P

VR\RXQJDQGPRGHUQP\VHOI!

)LQDOO\DGLVWLQFWLYHHOHPHQWLQ**0LVWKHXVHRIDODUJHQXPEHURI

LWHPV WDNHQ IURP WKH W\SLFDO ,QGLDQ (QJOLVK VSHHFK DGGLQJ XS WR WKH

VHYHUDO FKDUDFWHUV QDPHV $ K\EULG XVDJH RI ODQJXDJH LV LQ IDFW

JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH SUHVHQFH RI WHUPV VXFK DV URWL EUHDG  SXNND

DXWKHQWLF FKXGGLHV SDQWV NDEDGL WHDP QHZZRUGVFUHDWHGDGGLQJ

(QJOLVK VXIIL[HV WR ,QGLDQ WHUPV VXFK DV \RJLF WDQWULF DQG WKH YHU\

IUHTXHQWH[SUHVVLRQ,11,7  ZKLFKUHSODFHVWKHVWDQGDUG,61¶7,7



&RRFFXUUHQFHVDQGIORZRILQIRUPDWLRQ

$JOREDOYLHZRIVRPHZRUGVRIWKHWH[WXQGHUVWXG\LVREWDLQHGE\

FRUUHVSRQGHQFH DQDO\VLV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH WZRZD\ FRQWLQJHQF\

WDEOH RI FRRFFXUUHQFHV RI WKH DGMHFWLYHV $6,$1 ,1',$1 %5,7,6+

DQG(1*/,6+ *UHHQDFUH/HEDUWDQG6DOHP 



7KH,QGLDQL]DWLRQRI(QJOLVKLVDYHU\FRPPRQSUDFWLFHDPRQJ%ULWLVK$VLDQFRPPXQLWLHV

LQWKH8.DSKHQRPHQRQZKLFKVWDUWHGGXULQJWKH%ULWLVKGRPLQLRQRYHU,QGLDDQGFRQWLQXHV

WRGD\ 0F&UXPHWDO 7KHW\SLFDO$QJOR,QGLDQDFFHQWDGRSWHGLQ**0NQRZQDVD

FKHHFKHHDFFHQW VHH:HOOV GLIIHUVPRVWYLVLEO\IURPVWDQGDUGLQIOHFWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\LQ

WKHSDWWHUQVRIVWUHVVDQGLQWRQDWLRQDQGWKLVFUHDWHVDQRYHUSRZHULQJKXPRURXVHIIHFW

(10)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



7KH DQDO\VLV LV PDLQO\ DLPHG DW GHVFULELQJ WKH GDWD E\ PHDQV RI D

PDSZKHUHDOOWKHFRRFFXUUHQFHVDUHSORWWHG,Q)LJXUHWKHURZDQG

FROXPQSRLQWVDUHGLVSOD\HGLQDWZRGLPHQVLRQDOVSDFHZKHUHWKHILUVW

WZRD[HVH[SODLQRIWKHRULJLQDOLQHUWLD

/RRNLQJ DW WKH FROXPQ SURILOHV WKH ILUVW GLPHQVLRQ TXDOLILHV WKH

RSSRVLWH SRVLWLRQ RI $6,$1 ZLWK UHVSHFW WR ,1',$1 ZKHUHDV DV

H[SHFWHGWKHVHFRQGGLPHQVLRQHQKDQFHVWKHFORVHQHVVRI%5,7,6+DQG

(1*/,6+DVRSSRVHGWR$6,$1DQG,1',$1



 

)LJXUH&RUUHVSRQGHQFH$QDO\VLVRIFRRFFXUUHQFHVRIWKHZRUGV

 $6,$1,1',$1%5,7,6+(1*/,6+

7KH URZ SRLQWV UHSUHVHQW WKH FRRFFXUULQJ ZRUGV 7KH SRVLWLRQV RI



URZ SRLQWV DQG FROXPQ SRLQWV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR HDFK RWKHU VKRXOG EH

(11)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

LQWHUSUHWHG ZLWK FDXWLRQ VLQFH WKH WZR VHWV RI SRLQWV DUH QRW GLUHFWO\

FRPSDUDEOH

+RZHYHULWLVQRWHZRUWK\WKDW(1*/,6+LVUHODWHGWRDQLGHDOLPDJH

ZKLFK LV W\SLFDO! SHFXOLDU! SHUIHFW! LW FRQVWLWXWHV D UHIHUHQFH

SRLQWDVLQPRUH(QJOLVKWKDQ!DV(QJOLVKDV!DQGDVRFLDOJURXS

RQHDVSLUHVWREHORQJWR:H(QJOLVK!7KLVLGHDOLPDJHFODVKHVZLWK

WKH SLFWXUH JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH QHJDWLYH VWHUHRW\SHV RI FRQWHPSRUDU\

%ULWLVKVRFLHW\ GUXJDEXVHXQHPSOR\PHQWDEVHQFHRIIDPLO\WLHVDQG

VRRQ ZKLFKDUHGHDOWZLWKLQVHYHUDOVNHWFKHVRIWKHSURJUDPPHDQG

ZKLFKGHWHUPLQHWKHKXPRURXVLQFRQJUXLW\

2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG %5,7,6+ VKDUHV WKH UROH RI LGHDO PRGHO DQG LW

PDLQWDLQV LWV SRVLWLYH FRQQRWDWLRQ 7KH XVDJH RI WKLV ZRUG WKHUHIRUH

PRYHVWKHIRFXVRIWKHGLVFRXUVHWRZDUGVWKHEHKDYLRXUVZKLFKGHILQH

WKHVWDWXVRIµEHLQJ%ULWLVK¶+HUHZHILQGH[SUHVVLRQVOLNH«%ULWLVK

GRQRW«!QR%ULWLVKGR«!«%ULWLVKORYH«!DQGRWKHUUHIHUHQFHV

WR%ULWLVKKDELWPHWKRGVVW\OHZD\RI«!%ULWLVKIDPLO\!%ULWLVK

FRPPXQLW\VRFLHW\!7KHDQDO\VLVRIWKHVNHWFKHVFRQILUPVWKHSRVLWLYH

LPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH ZRUG%5,7,6+ZKLFKLVQHYHUXVHGLQQHJDWLYHRU

UHYHUVHGVLWXDWLRQV

7KHDGMHFWLYHV$6,$1DQG,1',$1DUHFROORFDWHGLQWKHORZHUSDUWRI

WKHJUDSKDQGDUHRSSRVLWHWRHDFKRWKHU7KHILUVWRQH$6,$1LPSOLHVD

YHU\SRVLWLYHLGHDVLQFHLWLVRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDQHZVW\OHDQGORRN

RI WKH $VLDQ FRPPXQLW\ LQ WKH 8. ,W FROORFDWHV ZLWK DUWV!

OLWHUDWXUH! \RXWK! VKRSSLQJ! ZLWK HPRWLRQV DQG FXULRVLW\

VHQVDWLRQ!  7KH VHFRQG RQH ,1',$1 LV PRUH FRQQHFWHG WR WKH

LQGLYLGXDO VSKHUH ,W FROORFDWHV ZLWK WKH ZRUGV ZHGGLQJ! VH[!

FRXSOH!ER\!DQGZRPDQ!7KHODWWHUDJDLQSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQW

UROHLQUHODWLRQWRWKHLGHDRIDPRGHUQOLIHVW\OHZKLFKLVRIWHQSURSRVHG

DV D PRGHO WKDW ,QGLDQ ZRPHQ DWWHPSW WR DFKLHYH $OVR WKH W\SLFDO

VWHUHRW\SHFRQFHUQLQJWKH,QGLDQFXOWXUHVHHQDVDQFLHQW!WUDGLWLRQDO

DQGVSLULWXDOLVIUHTXHQWO\LQWURGXFHGLQWKHFRPLFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI

,QGLDQVDEURDG

$ VHFRQG DVSHFW ZKLFK GHVHUYHV VRPH DWWHQWLRQ FRQFHUQV WKH

RUJDQL]DWLRQRIWKHVHTXHQFHRIWKHVNHWFKHV,WLVFOHDUWKDWLQDVNHWFK

VKRZWKHOLQHDUQDWXUHRIWKHWH[WLVLQVRPHVHQVHPRGLILHGVLQFHRQHRI

WKHW\SLFDOGHYLFHVIRUPLUWKLVWKHUHFXUUHQFHRIFKDUDFWHUVDQGRIWKH

(12)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



VHQWHQFHVDQGYRFDEXODU\WKDWWKH\XVH,QRUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQGKRZQHZ

YRFDEXODU\ LV LQWURGXFHG LQ WKH QDUUDWLRQ ZH KDYH FRQVLGHUHG WKH

QXPEHU RI QHZ ZRUGV QHZ W\SHV  LQWURGXFHG RYHU D PRYLQJ LQWHUYDO

0775  SURSRVHG E\ <RXPDQV    DV D VRUW RI µGLVFUHWH¶

GHULYDWLYHRIWKHW\SHWRNHQFXUYH2IFRXUVHWKLVLQGH[YDULHVEHWZHHQ

 LIDOOZRUGVLQWKHLQWHUYDODUHQHZW\SHVUHODWLYHWRDOORIWKHSUHYLRXV

RQHV  DQG  <RXPDQV SRLQWHG RXW WKDW KLJKHU±OHYHO FRQVWLWXHQWV RI

GLVFRXUVHWHQGWRFRLQFLGHZLWKPDMRUSHDNVDQGYDOOH\VLQWKLVFXUYH

0RUHRYHUVKDUSXSWXUQVDIWHUGHHSYDOOH\VLQWKHFXUYHVLJQDOVKLIWVWRD

QHZVXEMHFWQHZHSLVRGHVLQVWRULHVDQGVRRQ



 

)LJXUH0RYLQJ7\SHWRNHQUDWLR**06HULHV(SLVRGHV

YHUWLFDOOLQHVNHWFKGHOLPLWDWLRQKRUL]RQWDOOLQHWKGHFLOHRIWKHRYHUDOO

GLVWULEXWLRQ 



(13)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVWKHPRYLQJW\SHWRNHQUDWLRIRUWKHILUVWVHULHVRI

**0KDYLQJIL[HGDQLQWHUYDORIZRUGVWKHILUVWHSLVRGHZDVXVHG

WRLQLWLDOLVHWKHYRFDEXODU\7KHYHUWLFDOOLQHVLQGLFDWHWKHHQGRIHDFK

VNHWFK 7KH KRUL]RQWDO OLQH LQVWHDG UHSUHVHQWV WKH WK GHFLOH RI WKH

0775GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHZKROHFRUSXV

,Q VRPH ZD\ WKH FXUYHV UHSURGXFH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ IORZ ZKLFK LV

FRQYH\HG LQ WKH QDUUDWLRQ 7KH WK GHFLOH KHOSV GHWHFW YLVXDOO\ WKH

VNHWFKHV ZKHUH WKH IORZ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ LV IDLUO\ ODUJH 0RUHRYHU WKH

SORWVHQKDQFHWKHUROHRIUHSHWLWLRQVLQ**0,QHDFKVHULHVWKHUHDUH

FKDUDFWHUV ZKLFK UHFXU LQ PDQ\ VNHWFKHV DQG ZKLFK GLVWLQJXLVK

WKHPVHOYHVIRUWKHUHSHWLWLRQRIVSHFLILFZRUGVORFXWLRQVWKHPHVHWF

6RPHWLPHVWKHRFFXUUHQFHLVLWHUDWHGVHYHUDOWLPHVLQWKHVDPHHSLVRGH

ZLWKDQLQFUHDVHGFRPLFDOHIIHFW,QWKLVUHVSHFW(SLVRGHVDQGVHHP

WREHULFKHULQWKHPHVFRPSDUHGWRWKHRWKHURQHVZKLFKLQVWHDGWHQGWR

ZRUNPRUHRQUHSHWLWLRQV7KLVLVTXLWHDFRPPRQVWUDWHJ\LQVHULDO79

SURJUDPPHV ZKHUH WKH LQLWLDO HSLVRGHV KDYH WR DWWUDFW WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI

WKHDXGLHQFHDQGFUHDWHDVWDEOHUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKWKHYLHZHUV



+XPRXUDQGK\EULGLW\LQ**0

 7KH JUHDW VXFFHVV RI **0 DOVR UHOLHV RQ WKH FOHYHU FKRLFH RI WKH

HOHPHQWVZKLFKDUHREMHFWVRIWKHKXPRURXVDSSDUDWXV,QRUGHUWRKHOS

HYHU\RQHSDUWLFLSDWHLQWKHVKRZZLWKRXWWKHIHHOLQJRIEHLQJH[FOXGHG

E\FXOWXUDOO\DQGOLQJXLVWLFDOO\FRQQRWHGVNLWVWKHVKRZ¶VSURGXFHU$QLO

*XSWDLQIDFWZDQWHGVRPHµ$QJOR6D[RQIULHQGO\MRNHV¶WKDWLVµMRNHV

WKDWZKLWHSHRSOHZRXOGXQGHUVWDQG¶RUDVKHGHILQHGWKHPµHQWU\OHYHO

VNHWFKHV¶ 7KH *XDUGLDQ )HE    7KLV PHFKDQLVP LPSOLHV D

GRXEOHOHYHORIXQGHUVWDQGLQJIRUWKHKXPRURXVPHVVDJHDILUVWOHYHO

GHILQHGDVHQWU\OHYHOZKLFKLVDFFHVVLEOHWRHYHU\RQHDVHFRQGOHYHO

GHILQHGDVGLDVSRULFKXPRXUZKLFKLVEDVHGRQLQFRQJUXLWLHVWKDWRQO\

WKRVHZKRSRVVHVVWKHQHFHVVDU\FURVVFXOWXUDONQRZOHGJHFDQUHVROYH

*LYHQ WKH K\EULG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI DOWHULW\ LQ **0 DQ HPSLULFDO

VWXG\ZDVFDUULHGRXWLQ)HEUXDU\RQWKHGLIIHUHQWSHUFHSWLRQRI



7KHFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIGLDVSRULFKXPRXULVGLVFXVVHGLQPRUHGHWDLOVE\%DOLUDQR  

%DOLUDQRDQG&RUGXDV  

(14)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



KXPRXU RQ EHKDOI RI WKH FRPSRVLWH (QJOLVK VRFLHW\ 7KH VXUYH\

LQYROYHGDVDPSOHRIVXEMHFWVVWUDWLILHGDFFRUGLQJWRJHQGHU DERXW

PDOHV DQGHWKQLFRULJLQ ,QGLDQVLPPLJUDWHGWRWKH8.

%ULWLVK$VLDQVERUQLQWKH8.ZLWKERWKSDUHQWVRI,QGLDQRULJLQ

ZKLWH(QJOLVKSHRSOHERUQLQ(QJODQGRI(QJOLVKDQFHVWRUV 

7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVSULPDULO\DLPHGDWFROOHFWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQRQ

WKH SUHIHUHQFHV DQG HYDOXDWLRQV RI KXPRURXV HOHPHQWV LQ VRPH RI

**0¶VVNHWFKHVVHOHFWHGIURPWKHFRUSXVDVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIWKHPDLQ

KXPRURXVPHFKDQLVP)RUWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHUHODWHGVFULSWVWKUHH

FRPPXQLFDWLYHPRGHVKDYHEHHQFRQVLGHUHGZRUGVVRXQGDQGLPDJHV

7KHVSHFLILFVNHWFKHVZHUHFKRVHQIRUWKHIROORZLQJIDFWRUV

L WKHLPPHGLDWHQHVVRIWKHKXPRURXVPHVVDJHZKLFKQHHGHGWREH

FRQYH\HG ERWK YLD µYHUEDOO\ H[SUHVVHG KXPRXU¶ DQG µVHPLRWLFDOO\

H[SUHVVHGKXPRXU¶

LL  WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH WZR GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI KXPRXU HQWU\ OHYHO

VNHWFKDQGGLDVSRULFKXPRXU 

LLL WKHW\SLFDOVWHUHRW\SHRQWKHSUHWHQWLRXVQHVVDFFHSWDQFHRIEHLQJ

(QJOLVKRQEHKDOIRIWKH$QJOR,QGLDQFRPPXQLW\

7KH VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQWHUYLHZHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ RU LQ VPDOO JURXSV LQ

RUGHUWRDYRLGDQ\IRUPRILQWHUIHULQJLQWHUDFWLRQVDQGIXUWKHUPRUHWKH\

ZHUH QRW DOORZHG WR H[FKDQJH DQ\ NLQG RI LQIRUPDWLRQ GXULQJ WKH

H[SHULPHQW 7KH H[SHULPHQW FRQVLVWHG LQ ZDWFKLQJ WKUHH VKRUW YLGHR

FOLSVIURPWKHILUVWVHULHVRI**0IROORZHGE\WKHVXEMHFWVLPPHGLDWH

UHVSRQVH WR TXHVWLRQV DERXW WKHLU SUHIHUHQFH RU HYDOXDWLRQ RQ VRPH

KXPRURXVLWHPVRIWKHVNHWFKDQGWKHUHODWHGGHJUHHRIDSSUHFLDWLRQ





6HH%DOLUDQR  IRUDGLVFXVVLRQ

7KHILUVWVNHWFKµ-RGKSXUVWDWLRQ¶LVDUHPDNHRIDIDPRXV%ULWLVKPRYLHµ%ULHI(QFRXQWHUV¶

E\'DYLG/HDQ6RPHHOHPHQWVRIWKHKXPRURXVPHFKDQLVPDUHWKHIROORZLQJ

L  WKH DFWRUV DUH ,QGLDQV EXW EHKDYH OLNH WKH RULJLQDO DFWRUV 7UHYRU +RZDUG DQG &HOLD

-RKQVRQLL WKHVHWWLQJLVVLPLODUWRWKDWRI/HDQ¶VPRYLHEXWLWLVORFDWHGDWµ-RGKSXU6WDWLRQ¶

LQVWHDGRIµ0LOWRQ.H\QHVMXQFWLRQ¶LLL WKHVNHWFKVKRZVWZRORYHUVVD\LQJJRRGE\HDQGWKH

FRQWLQXRXVLQWHUUXSWLRQVRIW\SLFDO,QGLDQFKDUDFWHUV VHOOHUVEHJJDUVDQGVRRQ 

7KHVHFRQGVNHWFKµ-RQDWKDQDQGWKH%RDUGRI'LUHFWRUV¶UHOLHVRQWKHLPSUREDEOHVLWXDWLRQ

RIDZKLWH%ULWLVKPDQZKRLVHPSOR\HGE\DQ,QGLDQILUPDQGWKHGLIILFXOWLHVWKDWKHKDVZKHQ

FDOOHGE\KLV%ULWLVKQDPH -RQDWKDQ LQSODFHRIDQHDVLHU,QGLDQYHUVLRQRILW

7KHWKLUGVNHWFKµ7KH.DSRRUV¶LVDERXWWZR,QGLDQFRXSOHVZKREHKDYHOLNHUHDO(QJOLVK

SHRSOHDQGWU\WRKLGHWKHLUWUXHHWKQLFRULJLQV

(15)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

$FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIKXPRXUDSSUHFLDWLRQ

,QRUGHUWRDVVHVVLIWKHGHJUHHRIKXPRXUDSSUHFLDWLRQH[SUHVVHGE\

WKHLQWHUYLHZHHVGHSHQGVRQVRPHH[WHUQDOIDFWRUVXFKDVHWKQLFRULJLQ

ZHZLOOFRQVLGHUDVWDWLVWLFDOPRGHOQDPHO\08%ZKLFKKDVSURYHGWR

EH HIIHFWLYH LQ GLVFULPLQDWLQJ DPRQJ SUHIHUHQFHV RU HYDOXDWLRQV RI

GLIIHUHQWJURXSVRIVXEMHFWV '¶(OLDDQG3LFFROR3LFFROR 

7KH08%PRGHOGHILQHVDWKHRUHWLFDOSUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQZKLFK

FDQEHILWWHGWRUDQNVRUVFRUHGDWDFROOHFWHGE\DVXUYH\7KHSUHIHUHQFH

RU VFRUH WKDW D VXEMHFW H[SUHVVHV GHVFULEHV D UDQGRP YDULDEOH 5 VXFK

WKDW









 



 P U

 P U 5

3 π ξP U −ξ U + −π

⎟⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎜⎝⎛

= −

= U =…P



ZKHUHξ ∈ > @ π ∈ > @ DQG P LV WKH KLJKHVW SRLQW WKDW FDQ EH

DWWULEXWHGWRWKHLWHPXQGHUMXGJPHQW

)RUDJLYHQPWKHUDQGRPYDULDEOH5a08% πξ LVD0L[WXUHRID

8QLIRUP DQG D VKLIWHG  %LQRPLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH SDUDPHWHU π

GHWHUPLQHVWKHUROHRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHILQDOMXGJPHQWWKHORZHULVWKH

ZHLJKW π WKHVPDOOHULVWKHFRQWULEXWLRQRIWKH8QLIRUPGLVWULEXWLRQ

LQ WKH PL[WXUH 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH SDUDPHWHUξ FKDUDFWHUL]HV WKH

VKLIWHG%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQDQGWKHUHIRUHLWGHQRWHVWKHVHOHFWLYHQHVV

WKDWLVWKHDWWLWXGHRIWKHUHVSRQGHQWWRJLYHDVKDUSDQGZHOOGHILQHG

RSLQLRQ1RWHWKDWLQJHQHUDODORZYDOXHRIξFRUUHVSRQGVWRVKLIWHG

%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQVFRQFHQWUDWHGDURXQGKLJKVFRUHV,QWKLVUHVSHFW

WKH YDOXH RI ξ) KHOSV GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ WKH RYHUDOO GHJUHH RI

HQMR\PHQWWKDWWKHUHVSRQGHQWVDWWULEXWHWRDKXPRURXVLWHPZKHUHDV 

π LQGLFDWHVWKHGHJUHHRIXQFHUWDLQW\RIUHVSRQGHQWV

7KHLQIOXHQFHRIH[WHUQDOIDFWRUVLQWKHILQDOMXGJHPHQWLVLQFOXGHGLQ

WKH PRGHO DGGLQJ WZR UHODWLRQV ZKLFK UHODWH WKH PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV WR

VLJQLILFDQWFRYDULDWHVE\PHDQVRIDORJLVWLFOLQNIXQFWLRQ



ȕ

\ \L

L = +H

 _ 

π    Z Z Ȗ

L = +H L

 _ 

ξ 



(16)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



ZKHUH ȕ ȕ ȕ«ȕS  Ȗ Ȗ Ȗ« ȖT  \M DQG ZM  DUH URZ YHFWRUV

ZKLFKFRQWDLQWKHFRQVWDQWDQGWKHFRYDULDWHVFRQFHUQLQJWKHLWKVXEMHFW

DQG UHODWHG WRπ DQG ȟ UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH FRYDULDWH VHWV IRU WKH WZR

SDUDPHWHUVPD\IXOO\RULQSDUWFRLQFLGH

7DEOH'LDVSRULFKXPRXU

,WHPV −πÖ



− _ξÖ * − _ξÖ * − _ξÖ * /RJ

OLNHOLKRRG

7KHFRXSOH¶V

GLDORJXH     −

7KHVHFRQGDU\

FKDUDFWHUV¶DFFHQW     −

7KHFDQQHG

ODXJKWHU     −

7KHFRXSOH¶V

SHUIHFW(QJOLVK

DFFHQW     −

7KHHPSOR\HHLVD

ZKLWH$QJOR6D[RQ

PDQ     −

7KH,QGLDQFRXSOH

GUHVVHGDVD

(XURSHDQFRXSOH     −

7KHWLWOHRIWKH

VNHWFK³-RGKSXU

VWDWLRQ´     −

7KHVHWWLQJRIWKH

ILUPLQ,QGLD     −

'DYLG/HDQ¶VILOP     −

/HJHQGD* $QJOR6D[RQV* %ULW$VLDQV* ,QGLDQV



,Q 7DEOH  ZH UHSRUW WKH HVWLPDWHG ZHLJKWV −πÖ  DQG − ξÖ IURPWKH08%PRGHOVIRUWKHMXGJPHQWVH[SUHVVHGE\LQWHUYLHZHHVRQ

(17)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

VRPHLWHPVRIWKHVHOHFWHGVNHWFKHV7KHSDUDPHWHUȟKDVEHHQUHODWHG

WR WKH HWKQLF RULJLQV RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV $QJOR6D[RQV ,QGLDQV %ULW

$VLDQV  E\ PHDQV RI WZR GXPP\ YDULDEOHV DQG D FRQVWDQW WHUP

0RUHRYHUDVDPHDVXUHRIJRRGQHVVRIILWWKHORJOLNHOLKRRGIXQFWLRQDW

PD[LPXPLVUHSRUWHG

7KHGHJUHHRIXQFHUWDLQW\RIUHVSRQGHQWV −πÖ LVJHQHUDOO\VPDOO

UDQJLQJ IURP  WR  EXW LW LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR UHPDUN WKDW WKH

LQWHUYLHZHHVDUHPRUHXQFHUWDLQLQHYDOXDWLQJLWHPVWKDWDUHUHODWHGWR

WKH WH[W ³GLDORJXH´ ³DFFHQW´  RU VRXQGV ³FDQQHG ODXJKWHU´  WKDQ LQ

H[SUHVVLQJWKHLUMXGJPHQWRQLWHPVUHODWHGWRLPDJHVRUYLVXDOGHYLFHV

³WKH WLWOH´ ³WKH GUHVVHV´ ³WKH VHWWLQJ´ HWF  7KLV IDFW FRXOG EH D

FRQVHTXHQFHRIGLIIHUHQWPHGLDRQWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIKXPRXU$OWKRXJK

WKH TXHVWLRQV ZHUH DVNHG LPPHGLDWHO\ DIWHU WKH LQWHUYLHZHHV KDG

ZDWFKHG D VLQJOH YLGHR FOLS WKH SURFHVV RI UHPHPEHULQJ VHHPV WR EH

PRUH HIIHFWLYH IRU YLVXDO KXPRXU $OVR SHRSOH WHQG WR UHFDOO MRNHV

ZKLFKSURYRNHPRVWPLUWK &KDSPDQ/HYHQWKDODQG0DFH

<RXQJ DQG )U\H   DQG SUREDEO\ WKLV IDFW GLIIHUHQWLDWHV WKH

XQFHUWDLQW\WKDWWKH\H[SUHVVLQWKHLUUDWLQJV

0RUHRYHULQPRVWRIWKHPRGHOVWKHHVWLPDWHVRIWKHVHOHFWLYHQHVV

SDUDPHWHUȟDSSHDUWREHJUDGXDWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHHWKQLFRULJLQVDQG

IRUPDQ\LWHPVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHVFRUHVJLYHQE\%ULW$VLDQVWHQGV

WR FROORFDWH EHWZHHQ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ,QGLDQV DQG WKDW RI $QJOR

6D[RQV

7KLV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ FRQILUPV WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D VSHFLDO FDWHJRU\ RI

KXPRXUGLDVSRULFKXPRXUZKLFKLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\VFULSWRSSRVLWLRQV

WKDWFDQEHUHVROYHGRQO\E\SHRSOHZKRSRVVHVVWKHQHFHVVDU\FURVV

FXOWXUDONQRZOHGJHWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHLQWULQVLFLQFRQJUXLW\ VHH%DOLUDQR

DQG&RUGXDVIRUIXUWKHUGLVFXVVLRQ ,QWKLVUHVSHFW%ULW$VLDQV

FRQVWLWXWHDK\EULGJURXSZKLFKLVFDSDEOHRIGUDZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQIURP

ERWKZRUOGVWKH%ULWLVKDQGWKH,QGLDQFXOWXUH7KH\DUHWKHUHIRUHDEOH

WR XQGHUVWDQG D W\SH RI KXPRXU ZKLFK UHPDLQV HLWKHU OHVV

XQGHUVWDQGDEOHRUHYHQLQDFFHVVLEOHWRRQHRIWKHRWKHUHWKQLFJURXSV



)RUUHDVRQVRIVSDFHZHKDYHQRWUHSRUWHGWKHHVWLPDWHVRIWKHγSDUDPHWHUV+RZHYHU

ERWKπDQGγSDUDPHWHUVHVWLPDWHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWDWWKHOHYHODFFRUGLQJWRWKHDV\PSWRWLF

:DOGWHVW



(18)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



7KH KXPRURXV LWHPV ZKLFK DUH DFFHVVLEOH WR HYHU\RQH WKH HQWU\

OHYHO UHFHLYHLQJHQHUDOYHU\SRVLWLYHUDWLQJV7KHUHIRUHWKHHPSLULFDO

GLVWULEXWLRQV VKRZ YHU\ VLPLODU SDWWHUQV ZLWK D UHPDUNDEOH QHJDWLYH

DV\PPHWU\DQGIUHTXHQF\PDVVFRQFHQWUDWHGDURXQGWKHKLJKHVWVFRUHV

DQG 7KH08%PRGHOIRUWKHVHNLQGRILWHPVGRHVQRWLQFOXGHDQ\

H[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHIRUWKHXQFHUWDLQW\DQGVHOHFWLYHQHVVSDUDPHWHUV

,QWKHIROORZLQJWDEOHZHLOOXVWUDWHVRPHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGE\ILWWLQJ

WKH 08% PRGHO WR VRPH KXPRURXV LWHPV RI WKH WKUHH VNHWFKHV XQGHU

LQYHVWLJDWLRQ7KHHVWLPDWHGSDUDPHWHUVDUHDOOVLJQLILFDQW

,WLVQRWHZRUWK\WKDWXQFHUWDLQW\PHDVXUHGE\ −πÖ LVYHU\ORZ

7KLV FRQILUPV WKDW VXFK KXPRURXV HOHPHQWV FDQ EH HDVLO\ XQGHUVWRRG

DQG UHFDOOHG IURP PHPRU\ VLQFH WKH\ SURYRNH JUHDW PLUWK 0RUHRYHU

WKH GHJUHH RI HQMR\PHQW PHDVXUHG E\ −  LV UDWKHU KLJK UDQJLQJξÖ IURPWR

 7DEOH(QWU\OHYHOKXPRXU

,WHPV −πÖ



−ξÖ



OLNHOLKRRGORJ

7KH LQWHUUXSWLRQV E\

PDQ\ FKDUDFWHUV LQ WKH

GLDORJXH -RGKSXU    −

7KH OHDGLQJ DFWRUV¶

%ULWLVKFORWKHV -RGKSXU    −

7KH FRPLF H[FKDQJHV

-RQDWKDQ    −

7KHDFWRUVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQV

-RQDWKDQ    −

7KH ILQDO SDUW RI WKH

VNHWFK .DSRRUV    −

7KH DFWRUV H[SUHVVLRQV

.DSRRUV    −

,Q )LJXUH  ZH LOOXVWUDWH WKH WZR W\SHV RI KXPRXU E\ UHSRUWLQJ WKH

HVWLPDWHG 08% SUREDELOLW\ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI VRPH LWHPV ,Q SDUWLFXODU

)LJXUHDUHIHUVWRDYLVXDOKXPRURXVLWHP³7KH,QGLDQFRXSOHGUHVVHG

(19)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

DVD(XURSHDQFRXSOH´DQG)LJXUHEWRDVRXQGHIIHFW³7KHFDQQHG

ODXJKWHU´ ZKLFK LV D GHYLFH FRPPRQO\ XVHG ZLWK WKH VRXQG WUDFN LQ

RUGHUWRVWLPXODWHODXJKWHU





D 7KH,QGLDQFRXSOHGUHVVHGDVD(XURSHDQFRXSOH



E 7KHFDQQHGODXJKWHU 

)LJXUH3UREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIURP08%PRGHOV $QJOR6D[RQVŶ,QGLDQVŸ%ULW$VLDQVƔ 





(20)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



 

7KHLQWHUUXSWLRQVE\PDQ\FKDUDFWHUVLQWKHGLDORJXH

 )LJXUH3UREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIURP08%PRGHO

(PSLULFDOGLVWULEXWLRQ



3UREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQ

̛





7KHGLIIHUHQWHIIHFWVRIWKHKXPRURXVLQVWDQFHVRQWKHDXGLHQFHDUH

FOHDUO\GHSLFWHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQWSDWWHUQVRI08%GLVWULEXWLRQVKRZQLQ

WKH JUDSKV 7KH HQWU\ OHYHO KXPRXU )LJXUH   LV YHU\ VWUDLJKW DQG

VLPSOH JHQHUDOO\LWUHIHUVWRVLWXDWLRQVPLPLFU\JHVWXUHVILQDOSXQFK

OLQHV HWF  WKHUHIRUH LW LV ZHOO UHFRJQL]HG E\ YLHZHUV DQG UDLVHV WKH

XQDQLPRXV DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH DXGLHQFH 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG GLDVSRULF

KXPRXU )LJXUH D  LV PRUH SURIRXQG LW UHTXLUHV D PRUH LQWHQVH

LQIHUHQWLDO SURFHVV LQ RUGHU WR OLQN RSSRVLQJ VFULSWV ZKLFK FDXVH

ODXJKWHU 7KLV LQFUHDVHG FRPSOH[LW\ LQ WKH UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH

LQFRQJUXLWLHVLVUHIOHFWHGLQWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIKXPRXUZKLFKEHFRPHV

PRUHUHODWHGWRWKHLQGLYLGXDODQGWRKLVKHUSHUVRQDOVWRU\7KHODWWHULV

VXPPDUL]HGE\WKHYDULDEOHVZKLFKUHSUHVHQWWKHHWKQLFRULJLQV)LQDOO\

)LJXUH E HQKDQFHV KRZ D GHYLFH YHU\ FRPPRQ LQ %ULWLVK 79

FRPHGLHV LV SHUFHLYHG LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V E\ WKH WKUHH HWKQLF JURXSV

$QJOR6D[RQVLQIDFWILQGFDQQHGODXJKWHUPXFKPRUHHQMR\DEOHWKDQ

,QGLDQV DQG %ULW$VLDQV DQG DJDLQ WKH ODWWHU FROORFDWHV LQ DQ

LQWHUPHGLDWHSRVLWLRQEHWZHHQWKHRWKHUJURXSV

(21)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

**0DQG%ULW$VLDQLGHQWLW\

$IXUWKHUFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRIKXPRXUDSSUHFLDWLRQE\GLIIHUHQWHWKQLF

JURXSV FDQ EH REWDLQHG E\ PHDQV RI D VWDQGDUG WHFKQLTXH IRU

PXOWLYDULDWH GDWD ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH QRQPHWULF 0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDO

6FDOLQJ KDV EHHQ DSSOLHG WR FRQVWUXFW D WZR GLPHQVLRQDO PDS

UHSUHVHQWLQJWKHGLVVLPLODULW\DPRQJWKHMXGJPHQWVWKDWWKHUHVSRQGHQWV

H[SUHVVHGZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRLWHPVRIWKHVNHWFKµ-RGKSXUVWDWLRQ¶ VHH

)LJXUH   7KLV VNHWFK LV SDUWLFXODUO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ VLQFH SDUW RI WKH

KXPRURXV VWDQFHV SUHVHQW PRUH WKDQ RQH OHYHO RI LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ EHLQJ

UHODWHGWRWKHNQRZOHGJHWKDWRQO\,QGLDQV RU%ULWLVK SRVVHVV



 

)LJXUH0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDO6FDOLQJ³-RGKSXU6WDWLRQ´

 $QJOR6D[RQVŶ,QGLDQVŸ%ULW$VLDQVΟ 



7KH 0'6 UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ UHWDLQV  RI WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH

RULJLQDO GDWD 7KH ILUVW D[LV LV UHODWHG WR WKH RYHUDOO GHJUHH RI

DSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHVNHWFKWKHVHFRQGD[LVH[SUHVVHVWKHHWKQLFRULJLQV

RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV 7KH GLVSRVLWLRQ RI WKH VXEMHFWV LQ WKH JUDSK

KLJKOLJKWHG E\ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW V\PEROV LQGLFDWH WKH DFWXDO JUDGXDO

(22)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



SRVLWLRQ RI WKH WKUHH HWKQLF JURXSV ZLWK UHIHUHQFH WR WKH ZD\V WKH\

SHUFHLYH KXPRXU 7KH %ULW$VLDQV RFFXS\ DQ LQWHUPHGLDWH SRVLWLRQ LQ

WKHJUDSK7KLVIDFWLVSUREDEO\DFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHVORZPXOWLFXOWXUDO

DVVLPLODWLQJ SURFHVV RI WKH %ULW$VLDQV WR WKH %ULWLVK OLIH VW\OH ZKLFK

DOORZVWKHPWRXQGHUVWDQGDOWKRXJKQRWFRPSOHWHO\WKHW\SHRIKXPRXU

UHODWHGWR%ULWLVKYDOXHVDQGDWWLWXGHV

7KLV UHVXOW VXJJHVWV VRPH IXUWKHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RQ WKH SURFHVV RI

DVVLPLODWLRQ ZKLFK VHHPV WR LQYROYH WKH \RXQJHU %ULW$VLDQ

JHQHUDWLRQV$VDPDWWHURIIDFWWKHLGHDRIDVVLPLODWLRQRIWKHVHFRQG

DQGWKLUGJHQHUDWLRQRIPLQRULW\HWKQLFJURXSVLQWKHGRPLQDQWFXOWXUH

FRQIOLFWV ZLWK WKH JURZLQJ LPSRUWDQFH RI FXOWXUDO SOXUDOLVP 7KH

DVVLPLODWLRQ GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\ PHDQ FRQIRUPLW\ WR WKH PDLQVWUHDP

YDOXHV LQ DOO VRFLDO DQG FXOWXUDO DUHDV **0 VHHPV WR UHVSRQG WR WKLV

QHHGRIDFOHDULGHQWLW\DVGRPDQ\RWKHUPHGLDSURGXFWV QRYHOVILOPV

79VKRZVDQGSOD\V ,WLVDSDUWRIWKHSURFHVVSUHVHQWO\SURPRWHGE\

6RXWK $VLDQV OLYLQJ LQ %ULWDLQ DLPHG DW FUHDWLQJ D QHZ SXEOLF VSKHUH

ZKLFKFRXOGEHSRVLWLYHO\SHUFHLYHGE\WKH%ULWLVK7KLVLPDJHLVDOVR

FRQVWUXFWHG WKURXJK KXPRURXV GLVFRXUVH ZKLFK VDWLUL]HV WKH

FRQVHUYDWLVPRIWKHILUVW$VLDQLPPLJUDQWJHQHUDWLRQDQGKLJKOLJKWVWKH

SUREOHPV UHODWHG WR FXOWXUDO K\EULGLW\ WKH LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQ FRQIOLFW DQG

IDPLO\SROLWLFV :HUEQHU 

,QWKLVUHVSHFW**0PD\KDYHDUROHLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIDSRVW

QDWLRQDO LGHQWLW\ DQG LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI D K\EULG SRSXODU FXOWXUH ,Q

RUGHUWRYHULI\WKLVVWDQFHWKHUHVSRQGHQWVZHUHDVNHGLQWKHILQDOSDUW

RI WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH WR H[SUHVV WKHLU RSLQLRQV RQ WKH UHOHYDQFH **0

PD\KDYHLQSURYLGLQJ,QGLDQVZLWKDVRFLDOLQVWUXPHQWJLYLQJWKHPD

YRLFHµWRVSHDNIRUWKHPVHOYHV¶$OWKRXJKWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVXUYH\FDQ

EHLQWHUSUHWHGRQO\DVLQGLFDWLQJDFXUUHQWWUHQGLQWKHRSLQLRQVRIWKH

LQWHUYLHZHHVWKHFRQFOXVLRQVVHHPWREHRIVRPHLQWHUHVW

0RVW RI WKH LQWHUYLHZHHV H[SUHVV TXLWH D SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQW RQ WKH

IDFW WKDW **0 JLYHV WKHP D YRLFH WKURXJK PDLQVWUHDP 79

UHSUHVHQWDWLRQHYHQWKRXJKWKH,QGLDQUHVSRQGHQWVVHHPPRUHFRQILGHQW

FRPSDUHGWRWKHRWKHUWZRJURXSV,QSDUWLFXODURI,QGLDQVVWURQJO\

VXSSRUW WKDW **0¶V HWKQLF UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO YDOXH LV SRVVLEO\ WUXH

DJDLQVWRI%ULW$VLDQVDQGDOPRVWRI$QJOR6D[RQV

(23)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

+RZHYHU WKH VROLG EHOLHI LQ WKH XVHIXOQHVV RI **0 VHHPV WR EH

ZHDNHU ZKHQ WKH LQWHUYLHZHHV DUH DVNHG WR JLYH DQ RSLQLRQ RQ WKH

LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH 79 SURJUDPPH DV D PHDQV RI GUDZLQJ DWWHQWLRQ WR

SRZHUGLIIHUHQFHVLQ%ULWLVKVRFLHW\**0LVQRWXQLYHUVDOO\UHFRJQL]HG

DV D 79 SURGXFW FDSDEOH RI DWWUDFWLQJ LWV YLHZHUV¶ DWWHQWLRQ WR SRZHU

GLIIHUHQFHV )LJXUH D   RI %ULW$VLDQV DQG DOPRVW KDOI RI WKH

,QGLDQVDQG$QJOR6D[RQVFDQQRWVHHDQ\HIIHFWLYHIRUPRIEHQHILWIURP

WKHVNHWFKVKRZRUMXVWDPRGHUDWHLQIOXHQFH

















QR OLWWOH HQRXJK DORW DJUHDWGHDO

















QR OLWWOH HQRXJK DORW DJUHDWGHDO

/HJHQGD$QJOR6D[RQVZKLWH,QGLDQVJUH\%ULWLVK$VLDQVEODFN   )LJXUHD 

**0PD\KHOSWRGUDZDWWHQWLRQ

WRSRZHUGLIIHUHQFHVLQ*UHDW%ULWDLQ

)LJXUHE

**0PD\KHOSWRUHGXFHWKHDQ[LHW\

LQWKHUHORFDWLRQRI,QGLDQLPPLJUDQWVDEURDG

1RWH WKDW  RI ,QGLDQ UHVSRQGHQWV GR DWWULEXWH D UDWKHU SRVLWLYH

HYDOXDWLRQ WR WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW **0 PD\ LQIOXHQFH VRPHKRZ WKH

SHUFHSWLRQ RI XQEDODQFHG SRZHU EHWZHHQ JURXSV 7KLV DWWLWXGH LV

SUREDEO\ GXH WR WKH IDFW WKDW ILUVW ,QGLDQ LPPLJUDQWV DV D PLQRULW\

JURXSPD\PRUHHDVLO\UHFRJQL]HWKHSUREOHPVUHODWHGWRDQRQSDUWLDO

VKDULQJ RI SRZHU LQ WKH 8. DQG WKH\ DUH DOVR PRUH FDSDEOH RI

DSSUHFLDWLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI **0 DV DQ LQVWUXPHQW ZKLFK GUDZV

DWWHQWLRQWRVXFKDSUREOHPZLWKDKXPRURXVIRUPXOD

(24)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



)LQDOO\KXPRXULVDPHDQVRIUHOHDVLQJWHQVLRQDQGDQ[LHW\,QWKLV

UHVSHFWWKHWKHPHVWKDW**0GHYHORSVPD\KHOSHOLPLQDWHDQ[LHW\LQ

WKH UHORFDWLRQ RI ,QGLDQ LPPLJUDQWV DEURDG ,QGLDQV DQG SDUWO\ %ULW

$VLDQVUHFRJQL]HWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWVXFKDNLQGRIKXPRXUPD\KHOS

+RZHYHU  RI $QJOR6D[RQV VWURQJO\ GLVDJUHH RQO\  RI WKHP

JLYHDUDWKHUSRVLWLYHMXGJHPHQWDQGQRQHRIWKHPVHOHFWVWKHKLJKHVW

DYDLODEOHVFRUH DJUHDWGHDO 



&RQFOXGLQJUHPDUNV

 **0 LV D PXOWLIDFHWHG 79 SURGXFW ZKLFK FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DW

VHYHUDO OHYHOV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH XVH RI ODQJXDJH DQG LPDJHV IRU

KXPRURXV SXUSRVHV EXW DOVR RQ WKH XQGHUO\LQJ VRFLDO PHVVDJH WKDW LW

DWWHPSWVWRFRQYH\7KHDQDO\VLVWKDWZHKDYHSURSRVHGIROORZVWKHVH

WZR EURDG OLQHV RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ :H KDYH VKRZQ KRZ DOWHUQDWLYH

VWDWLVWLFDOWRROVFDQKHOSVXPPDUL]HWKHPDLQDVSHFWVRIWKH79VKRZ,Q

SDUWLFXODU **0 UHYHDOV WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D GLIIHUHQW NLQG RI KXPRXU

GLDVSRULF KXPRXU DQG WKH SURJUDPPH VXJJHVWV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI D

VKDUHG VSDFH ZKHUH PXOWLFXOWXUDOLVP FRLQKDELWDQF\ LV VWLOO D IHDVLEOH

SURVSHFW



$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV 7KH UHVHDUFK RI WKH VHFRQG DXWKRU KDV EHHQ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI 6WDWLVWLFDO 6FLHQFHV 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1DSOHV )HGHULFR ,, DQG E\

&)(365 3RUWLFL 7H[WVDQGLPDJHVRI**0DUH%%&FRS\ULJKWPDWHULDO



5HIHUHQFHV



$WWDUGR 6   7KH VHPDQWLF IRXQGDWLRQV RI FRJQLWLYH WKHRULHV RI KXPRU

+XPRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI+XPRU5HVHDUFK

$WWDUGR 6   +XPRURXV WH[WV D VHPDQWLF DQG SUDJPDWLF DQDO\VLV

0RXWRQGH*UX\WHU%HUOLQ

%DOLUDQR *   7KH SHUFHSWLRQ RI GLDVSRULF KXPRXU ,QGLDQ (QJOLVK RQ

793K'WKHVLV8QLYHUVLWjGL1DSROL)HGHULFR,,1DSOHV

(25)

6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVIRUWKHOLQJXLVWDQDO\VLVRIDKXPRURXV79VNHWFKVKRZ 

%DOLUDQR*&RUGXDV0  'HWHFWLQJ6HPLRWLFDOO\([SUHVVHG+XPRULQ

GLDVSRULF 79 SURGXFWLRQV +8025 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI +XPRU

5HVHDUFKIRUWKFRPLQJ

%RODVFR6  $QDOLVLPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOHGHLGDWL&DURFFLHGLWRUH5RPD

%RODVFR 6   6WDWLVWLFD WHVWXDOH H WH[W PLQLQJ DOFXQL SDUDGLJPL

DSSOLFDWLYL4XDGHUQLGL6WDWLVWLFD

&KDSPDQ $   )XQQLQHVV MRNHV FDQQHG ODXJKWHU DQG UHFDOO

SHUIRUPDQFH6RFLRPHWU\

'¶(OLD$3LFFROR'  $PL[WXUHPRGHOIRUSUHIHUHQFHGDWDDQDO\VLV

&RPSXWDWLRQDO6WDWLVWLFV 'DWD$QDO\VLV

)OHWFKHU :+   1*UDP VRIWZDUH   DYDLODEOH DW

KWWSNZLFILQGHUFRPNI1JUDP

*UHHQDFUH0  &RUUHVSRQGHQFHDQDO\VLVLQSUDFWLFH$FDGHPLF3UHVV

/RQGRQ

/HEDUW/6DOHP$  6WDWLVWLTXHWH[WXHOOHV'XQRG3DULV

/HYHQWKDO + DQG 0DFH :   7KH HIIHFW RI ODXJKWHU RQ HYDOXDWLRQ RI

VODSVWLFNPRYLH-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\

/XFNHWW 0   3RVWQDWLRQDO WHOHYLVLRQ" *RRGQHVV *UDFLRXV PH DQG WKH

%ULWDVLDQ 'LDVSRUD LQ 3DUNV / .XPDU 6 HGV  3ODQHW 79 D JOREDO

WHOHYLVLRQUHDGHU1HZ<RUN8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV1HZ<RUNDQG/RQGRQ

2DNHV 0 3   6WDWLVWLFV IRU FRUSXV OLQJXLVWLFV (GLQEXUJK 8QLYHUVLW\

3UHVV(GLQEXUJK

3LFFROR'  2EVHUYHGLQIRUPDWLRQPDWUL[IRU08%PRGHOV4XDGHUQL

GL6WDWLVWLFD

5DVNLQ9  6HPDQWLFPHFKDQLVPVRIKXPRU'5HLGHO'RUGUHFKW

6DZKQH\5  $QRWKHUNLQGRI%ULWLVKDQH[SORUDWLRQRI%ULWLVK$VLDQ

)LOPV&LQHDVWH

6FRWW 0   :RUG6PLWK 7RROV VRIWZDUH  2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV

2[IRUG

6WXEEV0  &RQUDGLQWKHFRPSXWHUH[DPSOHVRITXDQWLWDWLYHVW\OLVWLF

PHWKRGV/DQJXDJHDQG/LWHUDWXUH

7KH*XDUGLDQ  0LUWKRID1DWLRQ6DWXUGD\)HEUXDU\

:HOOV-&  $FFHQWVLQ(QJOLVKEH\RQGWKH%ULWLVK,VOHV&DPEULGJH

8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV&DPEULGJH

<RXPDQV*  0HDVXULQJOH[LFDOVW\OHDQGFRPSHWHQFHWKHW\SHWRNHQ

YRFDEXODU\FXUYH6W\OH

<RXPDQV *   $ QHZ WRRO IRU GLVFRXUVH DQDO\VLV WKH YRFDEXODU\

PDQDJHPHQWSURILOH/DQJXDJH

<RXPDQV *   930 VRIWZDUH DYDLODEOH DW KWWSZHEPLVVRXULHGX

a\RXPDQVFYSPLQGH[VKWPO

(26)

 *%DOLUDQR0&RUGXDV



<RXQJ5'DQG)U\H0  6RPHDUHODXJKLQJVRPHDUHQRW±ZK\"

3V\FKRORJLFDO5HSRUWV

:HUEQHU3  7KHRULVLQJFRPSOH[GLDVSRUDVSXULW\DQGK\EULGLW\LQWKH

6RXWK $VLDQ SXEOLF VSKHUH LQ %ULWDLQ -RXUQDO RI (WKQLF DQG 0LJUDWLRQ

6WXGLHV

 

Riferimenti

Documenti correlati

6RPHWLPHV WKH KHLJKW DQG ZLGWK RI WKH HOHPHQWV SODFHG DERYH WKH HQWDEODWXUH DUH. LQGLFDWHG DQG PRUH RIWHQ WKH GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH ODWHUDO EDQGV

The Flood Resilience Community Pathfinder scheme was intended to enable and stimulate communities at significant or greater risk of flooding to work with key partners to

monocytogenes clinical isolates collected in Lombardy (2006 –2014) according to the two different Virulence Types (VT80 and VT104).. i) all patients reported cheese as suspected

A novel deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) is proposed in this paper based on a nonlinear regression model to map the interaction force and the sEMG signals. By combin-

Among the best-known and most frequent genetic causes of male infertility are chromosomal abnormalities, mutations of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane receptor gene (CFTR) and

A number of different terms are used to characterize supero anteroinferior labral injuries based on their patho-anatomy: Bankart lesion (complete detachment of

Long-term home mechanical ventilation (HMV) is increasingly used by people with chronic respiratory failure (CRF) arising from advanced diseases such as chronic obstructive

sviluppato da Burdett (1982) ed è stato usato per determinare le forze sulla caviglia durante la fase di appoggio nella corsa: egli ha analizzato la posizione dei muscoli che