• Non ci sono risultati.

Previsione delle vendite: il caso lotto sport Italia s.p.a

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Condividi "Previsione delle vendite: il caso lotto sport Italia s.p.a"

Copied!
77
0
0

Testo completo

(1)8QLYHUVLWjGHJOL6WXGLGL3DGRYD . . . )DFROWjGL6FLHQ]H6WDWLVWLFKH. &RUVRGL/DXUHDLQ6WDWLVWLFDH*HVWLRQHGHOOH,PSUHVH    .     .  35(9,6,21,'(//(9(1',7( ,/&$62/277263257,7$/,$63$. 5HODWRUH3URIVVD/XLVD%LVDJOLD   /DXUHDQGD)HGHULFD)UDQ]RLD 0DWULFRODQƒ . $QQR$FFDGHPLFR.

(2) 2.

(3) ,1',&(  ,1752'8=,21( &$3,72/2,±/¶$=,(1'$(,/0(5&$72  ,OGLVWUHWWRGHOODFDO]DWXUDVSRUWLYDGL0RQWHEHOOXQD  ,QWURGX]LRQHDOO¶D]LHQGD/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLD  /DQDVFLWDGHOO¶D]LHQGD  ,OULVDQDPHQWRHODULRUJDQL]]D]LRQH  ±/¶D]LHQGD/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLDDWWXDOH  /DGHORFDOL]]D]LRQHSURGXWWLYD  /HWLSRORJLHGLSURGRWWRHLFDQDOLGLVWULEXWLYL  /H&ROOH]LRQL  /D%XVLQHVV8QLW(0($  ±5LSDUWL]LRQH)DWWXUDWR%8(0($  ±3ODQQLQJ &RQWUROOLQJ$QDO\VLV  &$3,72/2,,±0(72',(2%,(77,9,'(//(35(9,6,21,67$7,67,&+(  ±/DSUHYLVLRQHLQD]LHQGD ±/HVHULHVWRULFKH  ±$SSURFFLRFODVVLFRHDSSURFFLRPRGHUQR  ±/¶DSSURFFLRFODVVLFR  ±,OOLVFLDPHQWRHVSRQHQ]LDOH 'L)RQ]R/LVL

(4)  ±/¶DSSURFFLRPRGHUQR  ±3URFHVVL6WD]LRQDUL  ±3URFHVVLLQYHUWLELOL  ±/HIXQ]LRQLGLDXWRFRUUHOD]LRQHHPSLULFKH  ±,SULQFLSDOLSURFHVVLVWRFDVWLFL 'L)RQ]R/LVL

(5)  ±3URFHVVLQRQVWD]LRQDUL  ±3URFHVVLVWDJLRQDOL ±/DSURFHGXUD%R[H-HQNLQV  ±0LVXUDGHOO¶DFFXUDWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQL  &$3,72/2,,,±$33/,&$=,21('(,02'(//,  ±,OSURJHWWRGLDQDOLVL. 3.

(6) ±,GDWL  ±/¶DSSOLFD]LRQHDLGDWLGHLPRGHOOL6$5,0$   ±$QDOLVLGHOODVHULHGLYHQGLWDGL7UDFNVXLWV   ±/HVHULHULPDQHQWL  &21&/86,21,  %,%/,2*5$),$   352*5$00,67$7,67,&,     . 4.

(7) ,1752'8=,21(  4XHVWRHODERUDWRQDVFHGDOO¶HVSHULHQ]DGLVWDJHLQXQ¶D]LHQGDGLQRWHYROLGLPHQVLRQLFRPH /RWWR6SRUW,WDOLDHGDOODYRORQWjGLYHGHUHDSSOLFDWLDOPRQGRUHDOHGHOODYRURGHLFRQFHWWL SHUPHPROWRLQWHUHVVDQWLPDYLVWLILQRUDVRORQHJOLVWXGLFRPHO¶DQDOLVLGHOOHVHULHVWRULFKH 4XHVWLWUHPHVLLQD]LHQGDPLKDQQRSHUPHVVRLQROWUHGLFRQRVFHUHLOPRQGRD]LHQGDOHH LQSDUWLFRODUPRGRDOFXQLGHLSURFHVVLD]LHQGDOLSLYLFLQLDOPLRFDPSRGLLQWHUHVVLQRQFKp DJOL VWXGL /R VWDJH VL q VYROWR DOO¶LQWHUQR GHOO¶XIILFLR 3ODQQLQJ DQG &RQWUROOLQJ $QDO\VLV RUJDQR GL VXSSRUWR QRQFKp IXOFUR GHOO¶DQDOLVL VWDWLVWLFD SHU O¶LQWHUD D]LHQGD FRQ TXHVWR HODERUDWR VL q DYXWR PRGR GL DIILDQFDUH XQR GHL SURFHVVL D]LHQGDOL FKH YHQJRQR VYROWL QHOO¶XIILFLR LO SURFHVVR GL IRUHFDVWLQJ FKH FRVWLWXLVFH XQ¶LPSRUWDQWH IDVH GL SURJUDPPD]LRQHHFRQRPLFDD]LHQGDOH  9HUUj LQL]LDOPHQWH GHVFULWWR LO VHWWRUH GHOOR 6SRUW6\VWHP PRQWHEHOOXQHVH GRYH VL FROORFD /RWWR6SRUW,WDOLDHLOOXVWUDWDODVWRULDGHOO¶D]LHQGDGDODQQRGHOODQDVFLWDSDVVDQGR SHUODFULVLHLOULVDQDPHQWRILQRDGDUULYDUHDOODVLWXD]LRQHDWWXDOH 'RSRDYHULOOXVWUDWREUHYHPHQWHOH&ROOH]LRQLOHWLSRORJLHGLSURGRWWRHLFDQDOLGLVWULEXWLYL YHUUDQQRPHVVHLQULVDOWROHGLIILFROWjFKHO¶D]LHQGDGHYHDIIURQWDUHHOHGHFLVLRQLFKHGHYH SHQGHUH SHU ULXVFLUH D JHVWLUH LO UDSSRUWR FRQ LO FOLHQWH ULVSHWWDQGR OH WHPSLVWLFKH PD VRSUDWWXWWR UHDOL]]DQGR O¶RELHWWLYR FKH VL HUD SUHILVVDWD 4XHVWR PHFFDQLVPR ULVXOWD DQFRU SL YDOLGR VH FRPH QHO FDVR GL /RWWR 6SRUW ,WDOLD VLDPR LQ SUHVHQ]D GL XQD GHORFDOL]]D]LRQH SURGXWWLYD WRWDOH 3HU UDJJLXQJHUH GHWHUPLQDWL RELHWWLYL O¶D]LHQGD GHYH ULVSHWWDUH GHL YLQFROL GL FRVWR FKH VL FRQFUHWL]]DQR LQ GXH SXQWL SULQFLSDOL LQQDQ]LWXWWR SURGXUUH LQ JLXVWD TXDQWLWj VHQ]D HFFHGHUH Qp HVVHUH LQVXIILFLHQWL H LQ VHFRQGR OXRJR SURGXUUH WDOL TXDQWLWj QHOOH WHPSLVWLFKH ULFKLHVWH GDO FOLHQWH H LQ PRGR FKH ULPDQJDQR LQ PDJD]]LQR LO PLQRU WHPSR SRVVLELOH 3HU ULXVFLUH D VRGGLIDUH WDOL HVLJHQ]H q QHFHVVDULR SUHYHGHUHLOSULPDSRVVLELOHLOGDWRFKHGRYUjHVVHUHIRUQLWRDOOD3URGX]LRQHPDSHUIDUFLz VRQRPROWLLIDWWRULFKHELVRJQHUjFRQRVFHUHSHUIRUPXODUHXQ¶DWWHQWDDQDOLVLO¶DQGDPHQWR GHOPHUFDWROHVXHHYROX]LRQLPDVRSUDWWXWWRLGDWLVWRULFLGLYHQGLWD 1HO VHFRQGR FDSLWROR YHUUDQQR ULSUHVH OH WHFQLFKH VWDWLVWLFKH GL PRGHOOD]LRQH OLQHDUH SHU VHULH VWRULFKH GDO /LVFLDPHQWR (VSRQHQ]LDOH DL PRGHOOL 6$5,0$ H VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH VDUDQQRSURSRVWHOHIDVLRSHUDWLYHSHUODVFHOWDGHOPLJOLRUPRGHOORSHURJQXQDGHOOHVHULH. 5.

(8) HLOFDOFRORGHOOHSUHYLVLRQL,QSDUWLFRODUHVDUjDQDOL]]DWDQHOGHWWDJOLRODVHULHGLYHQGLWD GHOOH 7UDFNVXLW PDFURFDWHJRULD FKH FRPSUHQGH WXWWL L PRGHOOL GL WXWH VSRUWLYH GHVFULYHQGRQH L SDVVDJJL H SURGXFHQGR LQILQH GHOOH SUHYLVLRQL PHQVLOL XWLOL SHU LO IRUHFDVWLQJ Ê VWDWR RYYLDPHQWH SL FRPSOLFDWR ULVSHWWR DOOH DQDOLVL VYROWH D OH]LRQH HVVHQGR TXHVWH VHULH UHDOL H GXQTXH FRQ DOFXQH ³LPSHUIH]LRQL´ ULVSHWWR DJOL HVHPSL WHRULFL GHL OLEUL R DOOH HVHFLWD]LRQLSURSRVWHGXUDQWHLFRUVLXQLYHUVLWDULPDSURSULRSHUTXHVWRO¶DQDOLVLqVWDWDSL VWLPRODQWH 6L q SRWXWR FRPSUHQGHUH LQROWUH PROWH LQIRUPD]LRQH VXJOL DQGDPHQWL GHOO¶D]LHQGD XWLOL SHU LQWHJUDUH WXWWH OH DOWUH DQDOLVL ,QROWUH DVSHWWR D PLR DYYLVR GL LPSRUWDQ]DSULQFLSDOHKRDYXWRODSRVVLELOLWjGLDSSOLFDUHDOODUHDOWjOHFRQRVFHQ]HDSSUHVH GXUDQWHJOLVWXGLFKHVRQRVWDWHFRVuDPSOLDWHHPLKDQQRSHUPHVVRGLFRPSUHQGHUHSLD IRQGRO¶LPSRUWDQ]DGLWDOLVWUXPHQWL. 6.

(9) &$3,72/2,±/¶$=,(1'$(,/0(5&$72  ,OGLVWUHWWRGHOODFDO]DWXUDVSRUWLYDGL0RQWHEHOOXQD  , GLVWUHWWL LQGXVWULDOL ',

(10)  VRQR XQD IRUPD SDUWLFRODUH GL RUJDQL]]D]LRQH GHOOD SURGX]LRQH FKHKDUDJJLXQWRXQHOHYDWROLYHOORGLSUHVHQ]DHVYLOXSSRLQ,WDOLD 8Q',qXQDJJORPHUDWRGLLPSUHVHLQJHQHUHGLSLFFRODHPHGLDGLPHQVLRQHXELFDWHLQ XQ DPELWR WHUULWRULDOH FLUFRVFULWWR H VWRULFDPHQWH GHWHUPLQDWR VSHFLDOL]]DWH LQ XQD R SL IDVLGLXQSURFHVVRSURGXWWLYRHLQWHJUDWHPHGLDQWHXQDUHWHFRPSOHVVDGLLQWHUUHOD]LRQLGL FDUDWWHUHHFRQRPLFRHVRFLDOH *UDQGLQHWWL

(11)  8QWLSLFR',IXQ]LRQDFRPHXQFRQFHQWUDWRGLVLQJROLFRQWHVWLD]LHQGDOLLQFXLVLSURGXFRQR FRQRVFHQ]H H GD XQ¶DOWUHWWDQWR HOHYDWD GHQVLWj GL FDQDOL LQWHUQL GL WUDVIHULPHQWR GHOOD FRQRVFHQ]D $ORURYROWDLSURFHVVLGLWUDVIHULPHQWRDOLPHQWDQRODSURGX]LRQHGLQXRYDFRQRVFHQ]DLQ TXDQWR OH FRQRVFHQ]H WUDVIHULWH SRVVRQR HQWUDUH LQ FRPELQD]LRQH FRQ DOWUH JHQHUDQGR ULHODERUD]LRQLHVLQWHVLRULJLQDOL $OO¶RULJLQHGLXQGLVWUHWWRLQGXVWULDOHF¶qODSUHVHQ]DGLXQDFRPXQLWjORFDOHEHQLQWHJUDWD FRQ IUHTXHQWL UDSSRUWL LQWHUSHUVRQDOL WUD L VRJJHWWL ORFDOL DUULFFKLWD HG LQWHJUDWD GD XQ¶DFFHQWXDWD GLYLVLRQH GHO ODYRUR WUD OH LPSUHVH VFRPSRQLELOLWj GHO SURFHVVR SURGXWWLYR OHJDPLWUDSLFFROLSURGXWWRULHPHUFDWLHVWHUQLGLVERFFRHFRQWLQXHLQQRYD]LRQLWHFQRORJLFR RUJDQL]]DWLYH6RQRTXHVWLDOFXQLGHLSXQWLGLIRU]DFKHKDQQRGHWHUPLQDWRLOVXFFHVVRGHO GLVWUHWWR 0RQWHEHOOXQHVH SURYLQFLD GL 7UHYLVR

(12)  FKH QHJOL DQQL KD VDSXWR WUDVIRUPDUVL H FUHVFHUH SHU ULVSRQGHUH D HVLJHQ]H VHPSUH SL FRPSOHVVH H GLYHUVLILFDWH ULFKLHVWH GD PHUFDWRHFRQVXPDWRUL /D QDVFLWD GHO GLVWUHWWR ULVDOH DJOL LQL]L GHO ¶ TXDQGR VRUVHUR OH SULPH LQGXVWULH TXDOL 7HFQLFD'RORPLWHH1RUGLFDFKHLQL]LDOPHQWHUHDOL]]DYDQRFDO]DWXUHGHVWLQDWHVRSUDWWXWWR DOPRQGRGHOODYRUR/DVYROWDVLHEEHQHOSULPRGRSRJXHUUDTXDQGRVLULVFRSUuODSDVVLRQH SHU OD PRQWDJQD )X FRVu FKH OH LPSUHVH WUHYLJLDQH JUD]LH DOOH FRQRVFHQ]H GL EDVH FKH DYHYDQR QHOOD IDEEULFD]LRQH GHOOD FDO]DWXUD FROVHUR O¶RFFDVLRQH GHFLGHQGR GL SURJHWWDUH XQDVFDUSDDGDWWDDOOHHVFXUVLRQL1HJOLDQQL7UHQWDSRLFRQO¶DYYHQWRGHOORVFLQHOQRVWUR 3DHVH OR VFDUSRQH GD VFL GLYHQQH LO YHUR SXQWR GL IRU]D GHOOH LPSUHVH GHO GLVWUHWWR HVVHQGRLQL]LDOPHQWHXQDYDULDQWHGHOODSHGXODGDPRQWDJQD. 7.

(13) $OODILQHGHJOLDQQL6HVVDQWDVLLQWURGXVVHO¶XVRGLPDWHULHSODVWLFKHQHOORVFDUSRQHGDVFLH TXHVWR UDSSUHVHQWz DO FRQWHPSR OD IRUWXQD H OD VIRUWXQD GL PROWH D]LHQGH FKH QRQ SRVVHGHQGR LO NQRZKRZ H QRQ ULXVFHQGR D UHVWDUH DO SDVVR FRQ L OHDGHU GL VHWWRUH GHFLVHURGLGHGLFDUVLDGDOWULWLSLGLFDO]DWXUDVSRUWLYDFRPHLSDWWLQLGDJKLDFFLROHVFDUSH GDIRQGROHVFDUSHWWHGDFDOFLROHVFDUSHGDWHQQLVHFF ZZZPRQWHEHOOXQDGLVWULFWFRP

(14)  1HLSULPLDQQL6HWWDQWDFRQO¶LGHDGLSURGXUUHVFDUSHGDWHQQLVQDVFH/RWWR $WWXDOPHQWHLOGLVWUHWWRGHOODFDO]DWXUD0RQWHEHOOXQHVHqFRPSRVWRGDD]LHQGH GDWLDO ZZZRVVHUYDWRULRGLVWUHWWLRUJ

(15) GLYLVLWUDFDO]DWXULILFLHLPSUHVHOHJDWHDOPRQGRGHOOD VFDUSDFRPHVWXGLGLGHVLJQVXROHWWLILFLVHUYL]LGLPRGHOOLVWLFDHFF ,OVHWWRUHLQGXVWULDOHGHOOHLPSUHVHFKHSURGXFRQRDUWLFROLSHUORVSRUWqXQDGHOOHSULQFLSDOL UHDOWj HFRQRPLFKH GHOO¶,WDOLD H VHEEHQH VLD FRVWLWXLWR GD PROWH LPSUHVH GL GLPHQVLRQL FRQWHQXWH ULVSHWWR DG DOFXQL JUDQGL FRORVVL GL OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH FRQWULEXLVFH JUD]LH DOO¶LGHQWLILFD]LRQHGHO PDGHLQ,WDO\DGHVSRUWDUHQHOPRQGRYDORULTXDOL GHVLJQTXDOLWjHG LQQRYD]LRQHWHFQRORJLFDHGLSURFHVVLFKHIDQQRULFRQRVFHUHHGDSSUH]]DUHLOQRVWUR3DHVH DOO¶HVWHUR 7DOH VHWWRUH FRPSUHQGH LQ ,WDOLD LPSUHVH GL PHGLH H SLFFROH GLPHQVLRQL FKH VRQR HTXDPHQWH ULSDUWLWH D VHFRQGD FKH SURGXFDQR FDO]DWXUH DEELJOLDPHQWR R PDWHULDOH VSRUWLYR LQ JHQHUDOH H PROWH GL HVVH WURYDQR LO SURSULR PHUFDWR RSHUDQGR LQ SL GL XQ FRPSDUWR.  ,O 9HQHWR LQ FXL ULVLHGH OD VHGH FHQWUDOH GL /RWWR 6SRUW ,WDOLD q OD UHJLRQH LWDOLDQD FRQ LO PDJJLRU QXPHUR GL D]LHQGH RSHUDQWL QHOOR VSRUWV\VWHP SHU OR SL FRQFHQWUDWH QHOOD SURYLQFLDGL7UHYLVR6HFRQGRO¶XOWLPRUDSSRUWR26(0 

(16) OHD]LHQGHRSHUDQWLVRQR SHU XQ WRWDOH GL FLUFD  DGGHWWL H OD PDJJLRU SDUWH GL WDOL LPSUHVH VL GHGLFD DOOD SURGX]LRQH GL FDO]DWXUH DEELJOLDPHQWR R DFFHVVRUL DOWUH LQYHFH FRSURQR WXWWL L VHJPHQWL GHOPHUFDWRVSRUWLYRFRPHO¶D]LHQGDLQHVDPH7UDTXHVWHODWRWDOLWjGHOOHLPSUHVHFRQXQ IDWWXUDWR VXSHULRUH D  PLOLRQL GL HXUR DWWXD XQD SROLWLFD GL GHFHQWUDPHQWR PHQWUH VH DQDOL]]LDPR OD WHQGHQ]D DOOD GHORFDOL]]D]LRQH GHOOH D]LHQGH FKH RSHUDQR QHL GLYHUVL FRPSDUWLDEELDPRXQDSHUFHQWXDOHGHOSHULSURGXWWRULGLVFDUSHGDFDOFLRFLFOLVPR WHQQLV UXQQLQJ OD SHUFHQWXDOH VFHQGH XQ SR¶ 

(17)  FRQ OH VFDUSH GL VLFXUH]]D H GD FLWWjPHQWUHWURYLDPRWUDLOHO¶LSURGXWWRULGLGRSRVFLSDWWLQLVFDUSHGDPRQWDJQD HDEELJOLDPHQWR. 8.

(18) ,O IDWWXUDWR FRPSOHVVLYR GHO  GHO GLVWUHWWR GHOOR VSRUWV\VWHP q SDUL D SRFR SL GL  PLOLDUGL  PLOLRQL GL HXUR FXL LO  q UDSSUHVHQWDWR GDOOD VFDUSD GD FLWWj LO  GDOO¶DEELJOLDPHQWRLOGDOODFDO]DWXUDWHFQLFD ZZZRVVHUYDWRULRGLVWUHWWLRUJ

(19) .   ,QWURGX]LRQHDOO¶D]LHQGD/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLD  /DQDVFLWDGHOO¶D]LHQGD /RWWR YLHQH IRQGDWD QHO  GDL IUDWHOOL &DEHUORWWR FRQ O¶LQWHQ]LRQH GL DYYLDUH XQ¶DWWLYLWj LPSUHQGLWRULDOHQHOPHUFDWRGHOODFDO]DWXUDVSRUWLYD,QL]LDURQRODORURDYYHQWXUDSXQWDQGR VXOODVFDUSDGDWHQQLVPDVLQGDVXELWRLQWXLURQRFKHLOVHWWRUHFKHVDUHEEHGLYHQXWRSRLLO YHURFRUHEXVLQHVVGHOO¶D]LHQGDHUDTXHOORGHOODFDO]DWXUDGDFDOFLR , WUH IUDWHOOL &DEHUORWWR DYHYDQR JLj HVSHULHQ]D LPSUHQGLWRULDOH HVVHQGR VWDWL SURSULHWDUL GHOOD VRFLHWj &DEHU VHFRQGR OHDGHU PRQGLDOH QHOOD SURGX]LRQH GL VFDUSRQL GD VFL FHGXWD SRLDOODPXOWLQD]LRQDOH DPHULFDQDDFXLIDFDSROD6SDOGLQJ,WUHLPSUHQGLWRULIRQGDQROD. 9.

(20) VHGH SULQFLSDOH GHOOD QXRYD D]LHQGD QHL SUHVVL GL 0RQWHEHOOXQD LQ SURYLQFLD GL 7UHYLVR QHOORVWRULFRGLVWUHWWR9HQHWRGHOOD FDO]DWXUD/DVFHOWD GHO QXRYRPDUFKLRqXQ HOHPHQWR SHFXOLDUH FKH VWD D VRWWROLQHDUH XQ SURVHJXLPHQWR GHOOD ORUR DWWLYLWj L IUDWHOOL &DEHUORWWR DGRSHUDQRLQIDWWLOHUHVWDQWLOHWWHUHGHOORURFRJQRPHFKHQRQHUDQRVWDWHXWLOL]]DWHSHULO QRPHGHOODSUHFHGHQWHD]LHQGDDSSHQDFHGXWDHQDFTXHFRVuO¶LGHD³/RWWR´ *Lj GRSR LO SULPR GHFHQQLR /RWWR HUD GLYHQXWD XQR GHL PDUFKL GL ULIHULPHQWR QHO VHWWRUH GHOO¶DUWLFROR VSRUWLYR HVVHQGRVL VSHFLDOL]]DWD ROWUH FKH QHOOH FDO]DWXUH DQFKH QHOO¶DEELJOLDPHQWR GD JLRFR LQ SDUWLFRODUH WHQQLV H FDOFLR D FXL SUHVWR VL DIILDQFDURQR EDVNHW DWOHWLFD H SDOODYROR

(21)  H SL GL UHFHQWH DQFKH LQ TXHOOR G¶LVSLUD]LRQH VSRUWLYD GHVWLQDWRDOWHPSROLEHUR /D GLYHUVLILFD]LRQH SURGXWWLYD XQLWD DOO¶LQQRYD]LRQH WHFQRORJLFD H DOOH FDPSDJQH GL. PDUNHWLQJ SRUWDURQR /RWWR D GLYHQWDUH XQR GHL PDUFKL GL ULIHULPHQWR QHO VHWWRUH GDOO¶DUWLFROR VSRUWLYR LQ ,WDOLD &RVu DYYHQQH VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH XQ¶XOWHULRUH HVSDQVLRQH QHO PHUFDWRGHOODFDO]DWXUDHVHJXHQGRO¶HYROX]LRQHGHOPRQGROHJDWRDOORVSRUWHGDOWHPSR OLEHUR DSSURGDQGR SULPD QHO PRQGR GHOOD VFDUSD GD FDOFHWWR H GD UXQQLQJ H VXFFHVVLYDPHQWHLQTXHOORGHOODVFDUSDGDSDVVHJJLRFRQODFUHD]LRQHGHOODOLQHDOHLVXUH $ SDUWLUH GDJOL DQQL  ILQR DOOD ILQH GHJOL DQQL  D VHJXLWR GHO SURFHVVR GL GLIIXVLRQH GHOOD SUDWLFD VSRUWLYD OD GRPDQGD HUD FDUDWWHUL]]DWD GD XQD IRUWH HVSDQVLRQH H GD XQ FRQVHJXHQWH DXPHQWR GHL SURGXWWRUL FKH WHQWDYDQR O HQWUDWD QHO VHWWRUH IDYRULWL GDOOD SUHVHQ]DGLEDVVHEDUULHUHDOO HQWUDWDVRSUDWWXWWRDFDXVDGHLEDVVLLQYHVWLPHQWLQHFHVVDUL 3HUFHUFDUHGLIDUIURQWHDOODFUHVFHQWHFRQFRUUHQ]DDOO¶LQL]LRGHJOLDQQL¶O¶D]LHQGDGHFLGH GLWHQWDUHXQDVWUDWHJLDGLGLVWULEX]LRQHVXLPHUFDWLHVWHULHGLSXQWDUHSHULOVXFFHVVRD JUDQGL SROLWLFKH GL VSRQVRUL]]D]LRQH H GL SURPR]LRQH GHO PDUFKLR JUD]LH DQFKH DOOD FROODERUD]LRQH GL DOFXQL DWOHWL DL YHUWLFL GHOOH FODVVLILFKH LQWHUQD]LRQDOL H GL FDPSLRQL FRQRVFLXWLLQWXWWRLOPRQGR GHOFDOLEURGL5XXG*XOOLW=YRURPLU%REDQH'HMDQ6DYLFHYLF QHO FDOFLR -RKQ 'DYLG 1HZFRPEH 7KRPDV 0XVWHU H %RULV %HFNHU QHO 7HQQLV VTXDGUH FRPH LO 0LODQ SULPD H OD -XYHQWXV SRL

(22)  &RPLQFLD LQ TXHVWR PRGR OD OXQJD H SURILFXD WUDGL]LRQH GL LPSRUWDQWL VSRQVRUL]]D]LRQL FKH FDUDWWHUL]]HUDQQR O¶D]LHQGD LQ WXWWD OD VXD VWRULDHFKHOHSURFXUHUDQQRQRWRULHWjHFUHGLELOLWjLQWHUQD]LRQDOH /D VHFRQGD PHWj GHJOL DQQL  ILQR DOO LQL]LR GHL  VHJQD OD IDVH EUHYH PD LQWHQVD GHOO LSHUEROH WHFQRORJLFD GHOO LQQRYD]LRQH HVWUHPD QHOOD ULFHUFD GL PDWHULDOL H WHFQLFKH FRVWUXWWLYH 3URSULR O¶LQQRYD]LRQH WHFQRORJLFD H OD ULFHUFD GL PDWHULDOL DOO¶DYDQJXDUGLD. 10.

(23) SHUPHWWRQR DOO¶D]LHQGD GL GLPRVWUDUVL DOO¶DOWH]]D GL JHVWLUH TXHVWL QXRYL SUHVXSSRVWL HVVHQ]LDOLSHUULPDQHUHVXOPHUFDWR 1HO IUDWWHPSR DYYHQJRQR ULOHYDQWL PRGLILFKH QHO VLVWHPD GLVWULEXWLYR VL DIIHUPDQR OH FDWHQHGLQHJR]LVSHFLDOL]]DWLFKHGHWHUPLQDQRXQSURJUHVVLYRFDPELDPHQWRGHLUDSSRUWLGL IRU]DWUDSURGXWWRULHGLVWULEXWRULIDYRUHQGRLOSRWHUHFRQWUDWWXDOHGLTXHVWLXOWLPL 9HUVRODILQHGHJOLDQQLµSHUzO¶D]LHQGDHQWUDLQXQDIRUWHFULVLGRYXWDSULQFLSDOPHQWHDG XQ UDSLGR FDOR GL SDUWHFLSD]LRQH LQ DOFXQH DWWLYLWj VSRUWLYH DG HVHPSLR LO WHQQLV

(24)  H DO FDPELDPHQWR GHOOD GRPDQGD SULPD EDVDWD VXO QXRYR DFTXLVWR H VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH OHJDWD DO ULFDPELR GL SURGRWWR LO FRVLGGHWWR PHUFDWR GL VRVWLWX]LRQH LQIDWWL ULFKLHGH SURGRWWL H VHUYL]L GLIIHUHQWL HG XQD GLIIHUHQ]LD]LRQH VHPSUH SL PDUFDWD $ SHJJLRUDUH TXHVWD VLWXD]LRQH FL IX LQ FRQWHPSRUDQHD XQD FULVL ILQDQ]LDULD D OLYHOOR LQWHUQD]LRQDOH FKH LQFLVH SURIRQGDPHQWHVXLFRQVXPL&RPHVHQRQEDVWDVVHQHOORVWHVVRSHULRGRVLHEEHDQFKHOD PRUWHGLGXHGHLIUDWHOOLIRQGDWRULFKHSRUWzO¶XOWLPRGHL&DEHUORWWRDFHUFDUHGLULPHGLDUH DOODVLWXD]LRQHQHJDWLYDFKHVLDQGDYDSURILODQGR &RVu QHOO DSULOH GHO  D VHJXLWR GL XQ FRQFRUGDWR SUHYHQWLYR L VRFL FRQ XQ JUXSSR GL PDQDJHU HG LPSUHQGLWRUL ORFDOL JLj DWWLYLVVLPL QHO VHWWRUH GHOOR VSRUWHTXLSPHQW ULFRVWLWXLURQRO D]LHQGDFUHDQGRO RGLHUQD/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLD6S$ &RQLOSDVVDJJLRODJXLGDGHOO¶D]LHQGDYHQQHDVVXQWDGD$QGUHD7RPDWH[PDQDJHU/RWWR HFRQOXLLOSDFFKHWWRGLPDJJLRUDQ]DHUDWHQXWRGD*/RUHQ]DWRGLUHWWRUHGHOOD/RWWR$ 6DUWRUSDUWQHUGL7RPDWLQ6WRQHIO\H5'DQLHOLSURSULHWDULRLQSDVVDWRGLXQ¶DOWUDIDPRVD D]LHQGD 0RQWHEHOOXQHVH GHO VHWWRUH 'LDGRUD O D]LHQGD LWDOLDQD q FDSRJUXSSR GL DOWUH QXPHURVHVRFLHWjRSHUDQWLQHL3DHVLHVWHUL 5DPSLQ9

(25)    ,OULVDQDPHQWRHODULRUJDQL]]D]LRQH 2ELHWWLYR GHOOD QXRYD SURSULHWj q GL YDORUL]]DUH L SXQWL GL IRU]D GHO PDUFKLR GLQDPLVPR LQQRYD]LRQH TXDOLWj GHVLJQ PDGH LQ ,WDO\ H SDVVLRQH SHU OR VSRUW

(26)  XQLWL DG XQ VHUYL]LR VHPSUHSLDWWHQWRHGHIILFDFHDOODFOLHQWHOD ZZZORWWRVSRUWFRP

(27)  ,IDWWRULFKHKDQQRSHUPHVVRDOO¶D]LHQGDGLULVDQDUHLO JDS FUHDWRVLVRQRVWDWLXQDVHULHGL QXRYH H SL LQGLFDWH VWUDWHJLH FRPSHWLWLYH LQ WHUPLQL GL PHUFDWL H GL SURGRWWL FKH KDQQR SRUWDWR DG XQD SURIRQGD PRGLILFD DOO¶DVVHWWR D]LHQGDOH H DO VXR SRVL]LRQDPHQWR FRPSHWLWLYR. 11.

(28) /DULQDVFLWDHEEHLQL]LRFRQODVFHOWDGLIRFDOL]]DUVLQHLVHWWRULSLLPSRUWDQWLHVWUDWHJLFLSHU O¶D]LHQGD VFHJOLHQGR GL UHLQGLUL]]DUH OH SURSULH DWWLYLWj SHU DYHUH PDJJLRUL RSSRUWXQLWj GL VXFFHVVRHPLJOLRUDUHORVIUXWWDPHQWRGHOOHSURSULHULVRUVH ,O QXRYR FRUH EXVLQHVV YLHQH GHILQLWR FRQ SUHFLVLRQH HG LGHQWLILFDWR QHOOD FDO]DWXUD SHUIRUPDQFHFRQFHQWUDQGRFRVuOHULVRUVHSHUIDUVuGLSRWHUVIUXWWDUHOHHFRQRPLHGLVFDOD 6ROR LQ VHJXLWR VDUj DPSOLDWD O¶RIIHUWD DG HVHPSLR FRQ DEELJOLDPHQWR SHUIRUP H VIUXWWDQGRLONQRZKRZDFFXPXODWRVLHVSDQGHUjLQVHWWRULDIILQLFRPHO¶DEELJOLDPHQWRHOD FDO]DWXUDOHLVXUHSRWHQGRFRVuVIUXWWDUHOHHFRQRPLHGLHVSHULHQ]D &RQWHPSRUDQHDPHQWH VL GHWWH O¶DYYLR DG XQD VHULH GL PLVXUH FKH SRUWDURQR O¶D]LHQGD D PRGLILFDUHODVWUXWWXUDRUJDQL]]DWLYDHGRSHUDWLYD 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD OD VWUXWWXUD GLVWULEXWLYD GDO  LO PHUFDWR HXURSHR YLHQH VHUYLWR GLUHWWDPHQWHGDOODVHGHFHQWUDOHGL0RQWHEHOOXQDWDOHVFHOWDqGRYXWDDOODYRORQWjGLDYHUH VRWWRFRQWUROORWXWWRO¶RSHUDWRGHOO¶D]LHQGDQHLPDJJLRULPHUFDWLHVWHULHGLFRQVHJXHQ]DGL DFFHQWUDUHWXWWHOHDWWLYLWjORJLVWLFKHHGLPDUNHWLQJLQPDQLHUDWDOHGDULGXUUHLFRVWLGHOOD FRPSOHVVD ORJLVWLFD SUHHVLVWHQWH JUD]LH DOO¶HOLPLQD]LRQH GHL YDUL PDJD]]LQL VSDUVL SHU O¶(XURSD ,Q ,WDOLD H QHL 3DHVL FKH UDSSUHVHQWDQR XQ LPSRUWDQWH PHUFDWR SHU /RWWR O¶D]LHQGD VL FRPSRQHGLXQDUHWHGLDJHQ]LHSLRPHQRVWUXWWXUDWHOHTXDOLJHVWLWHGLUHWWDPHQWHGDOOD VHGH PDGUH VL FRPSRQJRQR VROLWDPHQWH GL XQ XIILFLR FRPPHUFLDOH FRQ XQ UHVSRQVDELOH FKHJHVWLVFHODUHWHGLDJHQWL /¶RELHWWLYRGLDFFHQWUDUHWXWWDXQDVHULHGLDWWLYLWjFULWLFKHQHOODVHGHPDGUHqFRQQHVVRD TXHOOR GL PDQWHQHUH DOWR LO OLYHOOR GL VHUYL]L DO FOLHQWH WUDPLWH OD FUHD]LRQH GL XQ FXVWRPHU. VHUYLFH LQWHUQD]LRQDOH FKH KD FRQVHQWLWR XQD SL HIILFDFH ULVSRVWD QHL FRQIURQWL GHOO¶DFTXLUHQWHHGXQSLWHPSHVWLYRFRQWUROORULVSHWWRO¶HYROYHUVLGHOPHUFDWR ,QL]LDOPHQWH OD VWUXWWXUD RUJDQL]]DWLYD HUD XQD FODVVLFD VWUXWWXUD PDWULFLDOH FKH VHJXLYD XQDGRSSLDVSHFLDOL]]D]LRQHTXHOODIXQ]LRQDOHHTXHOODSHUDUHDGLEXVLQHVV'DOJLXJQRGHO qGLYHQXWDXQDYHUDHSURSULDVWUXWWXUDGLYLVLRQDOHJUD]LHDOODVHSDUD]LRQHGHOOHYDULH %XVLQHVV 8QLW SHU DUHD JHRJUDILFD H SHU PDUFKLR /RWWR :RUNV H /RWWR /HJJHQGD TXHVW¶XOWLPRLQSLVWDVRODPHQWHGDOODVWDJLRQHLQYHUQDOHGHO

(29) HGDOO¶LQWHUQRGHOOHYDULH %8 YL q XQ¶XOWHULRUH VHSDUD]LRQH D VHFRQGD GHOOD WLSRORJLD GLVWULEXWLYD /D VWUDWHJLF. EXVLQHVVXQLW SL LPSRUWDQWH FRP¶q IDFLOPHQWH LQWXLELOH q O¶(0($ (XURSH0LGGOH(DVWH $IULFD

(30)  )LJXUD

(31) . 12.

(32)  )LJXUD±$WWXDOHRUJDQLJUDPPDGL/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLD6S$.   ±/¶D]LHQGD/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLDDWWXDOH 2JJL /RWWR 6SRUW ,WDOLD SURGXFH H GLVWULEXLVFH FDO]DWXUH HG DEELJOLDPHQWR WHFQLFR SHU XRPR GRQQD H EDPELQR GHGLFDWL DOOD SUDWLFD GHO FDOFLR GHO FDOFHWWR H GHO WHQQLV FRQ OR VFRSRGLVRGGLVIDUHVLDOHHVLJHQ]HGHOJLRFDWRUHSURIHVVLRQLVWDVLDGLTXHOORDPDWRULDOH$ ILDQFRGLWDOHVHWWRUHGHQRPLQDWRLQDPELWRD]LHQGDOH SHUIRUPDQFHQHqVWDWRVYLOXSSDWR XQDOWURFKLDPDWR OHLVXUHFKHVLFRPSRQHGLDEELJOLDPHQWRHFDO]DWXUHSHULOWHPSROLEHUR GL FKLDUR VWDPSR OLIHVW\OH SHU XRPR GRQQD H EDPELQR FRQ XQ¶LPPDJLQH HG XQ JXVWR WXWWRLWDOLDQRQHOODVFHOWDGLWHVVXWLIRUPHHFRORUL,QTXHVWRVHJPHQWRVLSRVVRQRWURYDUH SURGRWWL GHOOD OLQHD WUDLQLQJ SHU XQD SUDWLFD VSRUWLYD QRQ VWUHWWDPHQWH OHJDWD DG XQD GLVFLSOLQDVSHFLILFDHVSRUWVZHDUSHULOWHPSROLEHUR7DOLSURGRWWLHVSULPRQRTXDVLVHPSUH XQ¶LVSLUD]LRQHDO GHVLJQ GHOPRQGR GHOFDOFLR H GHOWHQQLV GLVFLSOLQH FKHUDSSUHVHQWDQRLO FXRUHGHOO¶LQWHUDDWWLYLWjD]LHQGDOH 6XOODEDVHGHOOHFRPSHWHQ]HDFTXLVLWHGD/RWWRQHOO¶DUHDGHOODFDO]DWXUDVSRUWLYDO¶D]LHQGD KD FUHDWR XQD QXRYD DUHD GL EXVLQHVV GHQRPLQDWD /RWWR :RUNV FKH VL RFFXSD GL JHVWLUH XQDFROOH]LRQHGLDEELJOLDPHQWRHVFDUSHDQWLQIRUWXQLVWLFKHFRQIRUPLDOOHQRUPDWLYHYLJHQWL SHUODVLFXUH]]DQHJOLDPELHQWLGLODYRURHGLDOWDTXDOLWj'DOODFROOH]LRQHDXWXQQRLQYHUQR /RWWRKDLQROWUHYROXWRDOODUJDUHLOSURSULRUDJJLRG¶D]LRQHHVSDQGHQGRVLLQXQVHWWRUH LQSLHQDHYROX]LRQHTXHOORGHOODVFDUSDGDFLWWj3HUUHDOL]]DUHFLzFUHDGXHQXRYLPDUFKL. 13.

(33) /RWWR /H'G H /RWWR /HJJHQGD /HJJHQGD JULIIH ULYROWD DG XQD IDVFLD GL SUH]]R SL DOWD SUHVHQWDPRGHOOLGLWHQGHQ]DHGDOORRNDFFDWWLYDQWHDEELQDQGRVWLOLHPDWHULDOLDOWHUQDWLYL SHUXQSXEEOLFRJLRYDQHHVHPSUHDWWHQWRDOODPRGD9HQJRQRLQILQHSURGRWWLHGLVWULEXLWL VX OLFHQ]D GD D]LHQGH WHU]H OLQHH GL RFFKLDOL GD VROH LQWLPR VSRUWLYR FDPLFHULD H FDUWRWHFQLFD ,OqVWDWRXQDQQRGLVYROWDSHUO¶D]LHQGDFKHGRSRXQSHULRGRGLVWDOORGLWUHDQQLKD ULFRPSHQVDWR OH GHFLVLRQL VWUDWHJLFKH H L JUDQGL LQYHVWLPHQWL LQ 5LFHUFD  6YLOXSSR GHO SURGRWWRQHOO¶HVSDQVLRQHFRPPHUFLDOHHQHOOHDFTXLVL]LRQLFRQXQLPSRUWDQWHLQFUHPHQWR GHOIDWWXUDWRGLRWWRSXQWLSHUFHQWXDOLULVSHWWRDOO¶DQQRSUHFHGHQWH .   ,O YDORUH GHL SURGRWWL /RWWR GDO  DQQR GHOOD QDVFLWD GHO QXRYR PDUFKLR

(34)  DO  KD DYXWRXQDYDULD]LRQHSRVLWLYDGHOUDJJLXQJHQGRXQIDWWXUDWRGLPLOLRQLGLHXUR . 14.

(35)   /DVFHOWDD]LHQGDOHGLHVSDQGHUVLDOO¶HVWHURULVXOWDXQDVROX]LRQHYLQFHQWHFRQIRUWDWDDQFKH GDJOLLQFUHPHQWLGHLULFDYLQHLYDULPHUFDWLPDUHVWDVHPSUHO¶,WDOLDLOYHURIXOFURD]LHQGDOH FKHDSSRUWDDOODVRFLHWjEHQXQTXDUWRGHOIDWWXUDWRPRQGLDOH 

(36)  ³,O ULVXOWDWR q SDUWLFRODUPHQWH VRGGLVIDFHQWH ± GLFKLDUD $QGUHD 7RPDW 3UHVLGHQWH GHOO¶D]LHQGD ± SHUFKp YHGH O¶DIIHUPD]LRQH GHO PDUFKLR QRQ VROR QHOO¶DUHD WHFQLFD GL SURGRWWR GRYH DEELDPR UHJLVWUDWR XQD FUHVFLWD GHO  PD DQFKH QHOO¶RIIHUWD SHU LO WHPSR OLEHUR FRQ XQ LQFUHPHQWR GHOO¶ JUD]LH DQFKH DO ODQFLR GHOOD OLQHD /RWWR /HJJHQGD $ YDOOH GHOOD ILOLHUD JUDQGH SURSXOVLRQH q VWDWD GDWD DOOD SUHVHQ]D GLUHWWD GHO PDUFKLRVXOWHUULWRULRFRQO¶LQL]LRGLXQ¶DUWLFRODWDVWUDWHJLDGLUHWDLOLQ,WDOLDHGDOO¶HVWHURFRVu FRPHVLqSHUIH]LRQDWDODSUHVHQ]DGL/RWWRQHLSULQFLSDOLPHUFDWLHVWHULGL$VLDHG$PHULFD LQSDUWLFRODUH,QSURVSHWWLYDTXHVWRVFHQDULRVFKLXGHGHOOHDPSLHRSSRUWXQLWjSHULOIXWXUR GRYH UDIIRU]HUHPR DQFRUD GL SL OD ULFHWWD FKH FRQ GHGL]LRQH SURSRQLDPR DO PHUFDWR LQQRYD]LRQHLWDOLDQDHGHVLJQLWDOLDQR´ $G RJJL OH YHQGLWH /RWWR YHGRQR XQD OHJJHUD IOHVVLRQH GRYXWD LQ SULPD EDWWXWD DOOD FULVL HFRQRPLFD FKH KD FROSLWR LO PHUFDWR PRQGLDOH GDO  LQ DYDQWL 1RQRVWDQWH TXHVWD LQYHUVLRQH GL URWWD L FXL HIIHWWL VRQR YLVLELOL GDO  VL PDQWHQJRQR OH SHUFHQWXDOL GHL TXDQWLWDWLYLGLYHQGLWDSHUWLSRSURGRWWRFRQO¶DEELJOLDPHQWRFKHULPDQHODFDWHJRULDFRQLO IDWWXUDWRSLHOHYDWRDGGLULWWXUDSLGHOODPHWjGHOO¶LPSRUWRDQQXR . 15.

(37) 2009 5%. ACCESSORIES. 43%. APPAREL SHOES 52%. . )LJXUD±)DWWXUDWRSHUWLSRSURGRWWR.   /DGHORFDOL]]D]LRQHSURGXWWLYD /D GHORFDOL]]D]LRQH LQWHUQD]LRQDOH GHOOH LPSUHVH q XQ DVSHWWR GL XQ IHQRPHQR SL DPSLR GHILQLWR LQWHUQD]LRQDOL]]D]LRQH RYYHUR WXWWR XQ LQVLHPH GL SURFHVVL GL VYLOXSSR GHOOH LPSUHVH QHL PHUFDWL HVWHUL Ê GRSR JOL DQQL ¶ FKH O¶DXPHQWR GHOOD FRPSOHVVLWj GHOOD GRPDQGD GHOOH WHFQRORJLH H GHO PHUFDWR KD FUHDWR QHOOH LPSUHVH O¶HVLJHQ]D GL JRGHUH GL XQDPDJJLRUHIOHVVLELOLWjSURGXWWLYDHVLVYLOXSSzTXLQGLXQDQXRYDFRUUHQWHFKHVSLQVHDG HVWHUQDOL]]DUHIDVLGHOSURFHVVRSURGXWWLYRDYYDOHQGRVLGLVXEIRUQLWRULRSURGXWWRULHVWHUL ORFDOL]]DWL LQ OXRJKL LQ FXL HUD SRVVLELOH JRGHUH GL YDQWDJJL SDUWLFRODUL QRQ GLVSRQLELOL QHO 3DHVH G¶RULJLQH FRPH DG HVHPSLR XQD PDQRGRSHUD D EDVVR FRVWR ,O SURFHVVR GL GHORFDOL]]D]LRQHSUHVHQWDGLYHUVHPRGDOLWjGLDWWXD]LRQHGDJOLLQYHVWLPHQWLGLUHWWLILQRDOOH SLGLYHUVHIRUPHGLFROODERUD]LRQHFRQLPSUHVHDXWRQRPHHVWHUH $QFKH OD UHDOWj LWDOLDQD q VWDWD LQWHUHVVDWD GDOOD GHORFDOL]]D]LRQH PD OD VXD VWUXWWXUD SDUWLFRODUH GDWD GDOOD SUHVHQ]D GL LPSUHVH SHU OR SL GL SLFFROHPHGLH GLPHQVLRQL H GD GLVWUHWWL LQGXVWULDOL ID VL FKH TXHVWH IDVL GL DSHUWXUD GHEEDQR HVVHUH DIIURQWDWH LQ PRGR SUXGHQWHFHUFDQGRGLLQGLYLGXDUHLSURHLFRQWURSUHYHGHQGRHYHQWXDOLVROX]LRQLDWXWHOD GHOOHVSHFLILFLWjFKHKDQQRUHVRXQLFRLOVLVWHPDSURGXWWLYRLWDOLDQR$OO¶LQWHUQRGHLGLVWUHWWL VRQRVWDWHSHUORSLOHLPSUHVHSURGXWWULFLGHLSURGRWWLILQLWLFKHLQJHQHUHVRQRDQFKHOH LPSUHVH OHDGHU DG DYHU LQWURGRWWR H VYLOXSSDWR PDJJLRUPHQWH LO SURFHVVR GL LQWHUQD]LRQDOL]]D]LRQH*UD]LHDOODVSLQWDGLTXHVWHJUDQGLD]LHQGHDQFKHOHLPSUHVHPLQRUL SUHVHQWLQHOGLVWUHWWRKDQQRDYYLDWRDWWLYLWjDOO¶HVWHURSULQFLSDOPHQWHGLWLSRPHUFDQWLOHPD. 16.

(38) XOWLPDPHQWHKDQQRDQFKHGRYXWRDIIURQWDUHODFRQFRUUHQ]DGHOOHLPSUHVHHVWHUHSUHVHQWL QHL3DHVLGLGHORFDOL]]D]LRQH &Lz KD FRPSRUWDWR LO IDOOLPHQWR GL PROWH D]LHQGH GRYXWD DOOD FRQFRUUHQ]D GL FRVWR LPEDWWLELOHFKHSHUzKDVSLQWRLOGLVWUHWWRHOHVXHSLFFROHHPHGLHLPSUHVHDPHWWHUVLLQ GLVFXVVLRQH H D ULFRQVLGHUDUH OD ORUR DWWLYLWj H LO ORUR UXROR QHOOD ILOLHUD SURGXWWLYD H QHOOD FDWHQDGHOYDORUH 4XHVWD HVSHULHQ]D KD LQWHUHVVDWR DQFKH LO GLVWUHWWR PRQGLDOH GHOOD FDO]DWXUD GL 0RQWHEHOOXQDHLQSDUWLFRODUH/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLDFKHqVWDWDLQWHUHVVDWDGDTXHVWRSURFHVVR ILQGDOODSURSULDQDVFLWDKDGHORFDOL]]DWRSHUODSULPDYROWDODSURGX]LRQHGLFDO]DWXUHQHO  H TXHOOD GHOO¶DEELJOLDPHQWR D SDUWLUH GDO  , 3DHVL FXL SXQWz LQL]LDOPHQWH VRQR TXHOOL GHOO¶(VW (XURSD 5RPDQLD %XOJDULD 8QJKHULD WXWWDYLD HVVL QRQ IXURQR LQ JUDGR GL VYLOXSSDUHXQDSURSULDFRQRVFHQ]DVXOSURGRWWRWDOHGDFUHDUHXQ NQRZKRZ GLEDVH3HU TXHVWR /RWWR SXQWz LQ VHJXLWR DL 3DHVL GHO )DU (DVW DPSOLDQGR TXLQGL L SURSUL RUL]]RQWL YHUVR 7DLZDQ &LQD &RUHD ,QGRQHVLD H 7DLODQGLD RYH L YDQWDJJL SHU OH D]LHQGH HVWHUH HUDQRUDSSUHVHQWDWLGDOFRVWRGHOODYRURDQFRUSLEDVVRGHL3DHVLGHOO¶(VW(XURSDHGDOOD PDJJLRUH GLVSRQLELOLWj GL ULVRUVH PDWHULH SULPH ULVRUVH HQHUJHWLFKH

(39)  VHQ]D FRQWDUH OD YLFLQDQ]DFRQLJUDQGLPHUFDWLGLVERFFRFRPH*LDSSRQHH&LQD2OWUHDTXHVWHVLWXD]LRQLGL EDVH VL GHYH DJJLXQJHUH OD FDSDFLWj GD SDUWH GL TXHVWH SRSROD]LRQL GL DFTXLVLUH UDSLGDPHQWHFRQRVFHQ]HVXOOHODYRUD]LRQLHIIHWWXDWHHTXLQGLGLFUHDUHXQ NQRZKRZ&RQ TXHVWL IRUQLWRUL /RWWR LQWUDWWLHQH XQ UDSSRUWR GL JOREDO VRXUFLQJ TXHVWL SURGXWWRUL VRQR VFHOWL VX VFDOD JOREDOH DQ]LFKp ORFDOH H VRQR DXWRQRPL QHOO¶DFTXLVL]LRQH GL ULVRUVH H QHOOD VWUXWWXUD]LRQH GHO SURFHVVR SURGXWWLYR SUDWLFDPHQWH OD GHORFDOL]]D]LRQH DYYLHQH FRPH VH IRVVHXQDVHPSOLFHDFTXLVL]LRQHGLSURGRWWLILQLWLGDSURGXWWRULHVWHUL,OUDSSRUWRWUD/RWWRH LO IRUQLWRUH HVWHUR q UHJRODWR DWWUDYHUVR GHOOH 7UDGLQJ FKH FRQVHQWRQR FRPXQTXH DOO¶LPSUHVDOHDGHUXQPRQLWRUDJJLRFRVWDQWHVXLSURGRWWLLQODYRUD]LRQH'DOODSULPDIDVHGL GHORFDOL]]D]LRQHDGRJJL/RWWRKDFRQWLQXDWRDGHVWHUQDOL]]DUHVHPSUHSLIDVLOHJDWHDOOD SURGX]LRQH RJJL QRQ DWWXD SL DO VXR LQWHUQR DOFXQ WLSR GL ODYRUD]LRQH WXWWR q LQWHUDPHQWH GHORFDOL]]DWR QHL 3DHVL HVWHUL H VROR LQ SDUWH LQ ,WDOLD SUHVVR IRUQLWRUL VSHFLDOL]]DWL LQ SDUWLFRODUL ODYRUD]LRQL SHU L SURGRWWL FKH VRQR WRS GL JDPPD H FKH ULFKLHGRQRODFHUWLILFD]LRQH0DGHLQ,WDO\ /RWWRQHOODGHILQL]LRQHGHOOHWHPSLVWLFKHHGHOWLPHWRPDUNHWGHYHWHQHUFRQWRFKHLOFLFOR GLYLWDGLTXHVWRWLSRGLSURGRWWLqDOPDVVLPRGLPHVLHGHYHTXLQGLSURJHWWDUHLOODQFLRGL. 17.

(40) XQ SURGRWWR FRQ XQ DQQR GL DQWLFLSR 'XUDQWH OD IDVH GL SURJHWWD]LRQH VL GHILQLVFH JLj OD FDSDFLWj SURGXWWLYD GHL IRUQLWRUL GLVSRQLELOL OD VL FRQIURQWD FRQ OD FDSDFLWj SURGXWWLYD QHFHVVDULD VWLPDWD LQ EDVH DO EXGJHW GL YHQGLWD H VL LQGLYLGXDQR OH IRQWL XWLOL]]DELOL , SURGXWWRUL HVWHUL LPSRQJRQR GHL ORWWL PLQLPL GL SURGX]LRQH DO GL VRWWR GHL TXDOL ULILXWDQR O¶RUGLQH LQ TXDQWR QRQ UDJJLXQJRQR OH HFRQRPLH GL VFDOD QHFHVVDULH SHU UHQGHUH FRQYHQLHQWH OD SURGX]LRQH Ê LQ TXHVWD IDVH FKH JOL DQDOLVWL H OH DOWUH ILJXUH LQWHUHVVDWH GHYRQRYDOXWDUHODFRQYHQLHQ]DDODQFLDUHRPHQRXQSURGRWWRYDOXWD]LRQHIDWWDJUD]LHDO SURFHVVRGLIRUHFDVWLQJ /D SURGX]LRQH GL /RWWR RJJL q ORFDOL]]DWD LQ &LQD ,QGRQHVLD 9LHWQDP &DPERJLD %DQJODGHVKHDOWUHQD]LRQLPLQRULFRPHLQILJXUD  Importo Anno 2010. Cina Indonesia Vietnam Cambogia Bangladesh Hong Kong Turchia Europa Pakistan Sri Lanka Altro. . )LJXUD±,PSRUWRIRUQLWRUL  /¶D]LHQGDFRQWUROODSRLGXH WUDGLQJ/RWWR6SRUW+RQJ.RQJ/WGH/RWWR6SRUW7DLZDQ/WG GLWRWDOHSURSULHWjD]LHQGDOHHFRQXQRUJDQLFRGLFLUFDSHUVRQH /DSULPDVLRFFXSDGLFRRUGLQDUHOHDWWLYLWjORJLVWLFKHHGLDSSURYYLJLRQDPHQWRGHOOHIRQWL SURGXWWLYH FKH UHDOL]]DQR L FDSL GL DEELJOLDPHQWR H JOL DFFHVVRUL D PDUFKLR /RWWR OD VHFRQGDLQYHFHVHJXHOHDWWLYLWjOHJDWHDOODSURGX]LRQHGLFDO]DWXUH /HGXHVRFLHWjVYROJRQRTXLQGLLOFRPSLWRGLLQWHUPHGLDULWUDOD/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLDHLSURSUL FOLHQWL ORFDOL]]DWL LQ $VLD HG $PHULFD HVVH FRQWUROODQR OD TXDOLWj GHL SURGRWWL ULFHYRQR JOL. 18.

(41) RUGLQL H FRRUGLQDQR WXWWH OH DWWLYLWj DPPLQLVWUDWLYH ILQDQ]LDULH H TXHOOH UHODWLYH DOOD VSHGL]LRQHGHOOHPHUFLSHULSURGRWWLUHDOL]]DWL 4XHVWDVFHOWDVWUDWHJLFDKDSRUWDWRPROWLEHQHILFLLQWHUPLQLGLVQHOOLPHQWRDFFXUDWH]]DH YHORFLWjGHLSURFHVVLULGX]LRQHGHLFRVWLHPLJOLRUDPHQWRGHLVHUYL]L $GRJJLODSURGX]LRQHGHJOLDUWLFROLPDUFKLDWL/RWWRqFRVuVWUXWWXUDWD . •. , SURGRWWL G¶DEELJOLDPHQWR DUULYDQR SHU SL GHO  GDOOD &LQD VHJXLWD GDOO¶,QGRQHVLDFRQTXDVLLOPHQWUHLOUHVWDQWHqSURGRWWRQHJOLDOWUL3DHVLLQFXL VRQRORFDOL]]DWHOHD]LHQGHIRUQLWULFLGL/RWWR.. $SSDUHO. Cina 6%. 1% 2% 5% 2%. Indonesia 43%. 12%. Vietnam Turchia Bangladesh Cambogia. 29%. Europa Altro. )LJ±5LSDUWL]LRQHJHRJUDILFDGHOO¶DWWLYLWjSURGXWWLYDGL/6,SHUO¶DEELJOLDPHQWR. •. $QFKHOHFDO]DWXUHVRQRLQPDJJLRUSDUWH0DGHLQ&KLQDSHUTXDVLXQ¶VHJXLWD GD9LHWQDPH&DPERJLD6ROROHFDO]DWXUHWRSGLJDPPDDOWDPHQWHWHFQLFKHHFRQ XQDODYRUD]LRQHDOWDPHQWHVSHFLDOL]]DWDFKHQHFHVVLWDQRGHOPDUFKLR0DGHLQ,WDO\ YHQJRQRSURGRWWHLQ,WDOLDGDSURGXWWRULVSHFLDOL]]DWL. 19.

(42) Shoes. 1% 6%. 1%. 4%. Cina. 0%. Vietnam. 11%. Cambogia Indonesia Europa Stati Uniti d'America. 77%. Altro. )LJ±5LSDUWL]LRQHJHRJUDILFDGHOO¶DWWLYLWjSURGXWWLYDGL/6,SHUOHVFDUSH. •. 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD JOL DFFHVVRUL LQYHFH OD PDJJLRU SDUWH GHOOD SURGX]LRQH SURYLHQHGD+RQJ.RQJVHJXLWDFRPXQTXHVHPSUHGDOOD&LQDFRQXQ. $FFHVVRULHV. Hong Kong 4% 2% 1%. Cina. 16%. Pakistan 55% 22%. India Europa Altro. )LJ±5LSDUWL]LRQHJHRJUDILFDGHOO¶DWWLYLWjSURGXWWLYDGL/6,SHUJOLDFFHVVRUL. /HWLSRORJLHGLSURGRWWRHLFDQDOLGLVWULEXWLYL  3HU PHJOLR FRPSUHQGHUH OD QDWXUD H OD FODVVLILFD]LRQH GHL GDWL DQDOL]]DWL ULVXOWD PROWR LPSRUWDQWH FKLDULUH TXDOH VLD LO SURGRWWR YHQGXWR GD /RWWR H FRPH VLD VWUXWWXUDWD OD UHWH GLVWULEXWLYDGHOO¶D]LHQGD &RPH JLj DFFHQQDWR WUH VRQR OH WLSRORJLH GL SURGRWWR FRPPHUFLDOL]]DWH VFDUSH DEELJOLDPHQWRHGDFFHVVRUL

(43) HGLYHUVHOHGLVFLSOLQHRYYHUROLQHHFRPPHUFLDOLTXDOLFDOFLR FDOFHWWRYROOH\HFF. 20.

(44) &RQULIHULPHQWRDOODUHWHGLVWULEXWLYDGL/RWWRULVXOWDRSSRUWXQRVSHQGHUHSULPDGXHSDUROH LQ PHULWR DOO¶RUJDQL]]D]LRQH DGRWWDWD LQ JHQHUDOH GDOOH D]LHQGH $OO¶LQWHUQR GHO PDUNHWLQJ. PL[ L FDQDOL GL GLVWULEX]LRQH ULYHVWRQR XQ UXROR LPSRUWDQWH LQ TXDQWR IRUQHQGR DO FRQVXPDWRUHO¶DFFHVVRDLSURGRWWLRVHUYL]LORPHWWRQRQHOOHFRQGL]LRQLGLSRWHUHIIHWWXDUH O¶DFTXLVWR 3HU SROLWLFD GLVWULEXWLYD VL LQWHQGH TXLQGL O¶LQVLHPH GHOOH GHFLVLRQL FKH O¶LPSUHVD GHYHSUHQGHUHSHUIDUDUULYDUHLOSURGRWWRDOFRQVXPDWRUHILQDOHGHFLVLRQLUHODWLYHDLFDQDOL GL GLVWULEX]LRQH DOOH VFHOWH GHJOL LQWHUPHGLDUL FRPPHUFLDOL  DOO¶RUJDQL]]D]LRQH H JHVWLRQH GHOODIRU]DGLYHQGLWD 5LVSROL

(45)  &RPHqIDFLOPHQWHLQWXLELOHVRQRWXWWHGHFLVLRQLGLJUDQGHULOLHYRSHUO¶LPSUHVDLQGXVWULDOH ,QIDWWL GRSR DYHU YHQGXWR LO SURGRWWR DO GLVWULEXWRUH QRQ VL SXz FHUWR ULWHQHUH GL DYHU HVDXULWR O¶DWWLYLWj FRPPHUFLDOH LJQRUDQGR FKH LO SURGRWWR q VROR WHPSRUDQHDPHQWH ³GHSRVLWDWR´ SUHVVR LO GLVWULEXWRUH H FKH PROWH YROWH DJOL VIRU]L FRPPHUFLDOL VRVWHQXWL SHU IDUORHQWUDUHQHLQHJR]L VHOOLQ

(46) VLGHYRQRVXFFHVVLYDPHQWHDJJLXQJHUHDOWULVIRU]LSHUIDU VuFKHYHQJDFRPSUDWRFRPHOHD]LRQLSURPR]LRQDOL VHOORXW

(47)  8Q FDQDOH GL GLVWULEX]LRQH FRQVLVWH LQ XQ LQVLHPH GL RSHUDWRUL FKH SDUWHFLSDQR DO WUDVIHULPHQWR GHOOD SURSULHWj GHL EHQL GDO SURGXWWRUH DO FRQVXPDWRUH H O¶DWWLYLWj GHJOL RSHUDWRUL q IDYRULWD GDOOD SUHVHQ]D GL QXPHURVL DXVLOLDUL FKH QRQ DJHQGR LQ IRUPD DXWRQRPD IDQQR SDUWH GHO FDQDOH VRQR TXLQGL PHPEUL GL XQ FDQDOH LO SURGXWWRUH LO FRQVXPDWRUHHWXWWLJOLLQWHUPHGLDULFRPPHUFLDOLFKHLQWHUYHQJRQR 5LVSROL

(48)  ,FDQDOLVLGLVWLQJXRQRLQ •. FDQDOLGLUHWWLFRQLTXDOLLOSURGXWWRUHqLQFRQWDWWRLPPHGLDWRFROFRQVXPDWRUHSHU HVHPSLRDWWUDYHUVRGHOOHSURSULHILOLDOLGLYHQGLWD. •. FDQDOLLQGLUHWWLQHLTXDOLLOSURGXWWRUHVLDSSRJJLDDGLQWHUPHGLDULFRPPHUFLDOL. ,FDQDOLLQGLUHWWLVRQRDORURYROWDGLVWLQWLWUD •. FDQDOLEUHYLGRYHVLULFKLHGHO¶LQWHUYHQWRGLXQVRORLQWHUPHGLDULRIUDLOSURGXWWRUHH O¶DFTXLUHQWHILQDOHDWWUDYHUVRGHLGHWWDJOLDQWL. •. FDQDOLOXQJKLTXDQGRYLHQHSUHYLVWRLOSDVVDJJLRDWWUDYHUVRGXHRSLLQWHUPHGLDUL FRPHJURVVLVWLHGHWWDJOLDQWL. . 21.

(49)  )LJXUD±,FDQDOLGLGLVWULEX]LRQH 5LVSROL

(50)  . ,IDWWRULFRQGL]LRQDQWLODVFHOWDGHLFDQDOLGLGLVWULEX]LRQHSRVVRQRHVVHUHGLVWLQWLLQIDWWRUL LQWHUQL H IDWWRUL HVWHUQL DOO¶D]LHQGD 7UD L IDWWRUL HVWHUQL SL LPSRUWDQWL YDQQR ULFRUGDWH OH FDUDWWHULVWLFKHGLSURGRWWRFRPHDGHVHPSLRLOJUDGRGLGHSHULELOLWjGHJOLVWHVVL FKHSRUWDD ULGXUUH R PHQR L SDVVDJJL GHOOD PHUFH

(51)  H OH FDUDWWHULVWLFKH GHOOD FOLHQWHOD DG HVHPSLR LO QXPHUR GHL FOLHQWL SRWHQ]LDOL GD UDJJLXQJHUH H OD ORUR FRQFHQWUD]LRQH R GLVSHUVLRQH JHRJUDILFD , IDWWRUL LQWHUQL SULQFLSDOL VRQR LQYHFH UDSSUHVHQWDWL GDOOD JDPPD GHL SURGRWWL OD FDSDFLWj ILQDQ]LDULDD]LHQGDOHHJOLRELHWWLYLGLYHQGLWD,QPHULWRDJOLRELHWWLYLGLYHQGLWDLQWHUPLQLGL YROXPHO¶LPSUHVDGHYHGHFLGHUHFRPHYXROHUHDOL]]DUOLGHYHFLRqGHFLGHUHVHDJLUHVXXQ PDJJLRUQXPHURGLSXQWLYHQGLWDFHUFDQGRGLDVVLFXUDUVLXQ¶HOHYDWDSUREDELOLWjGLFRQWDWWR FRQ LO PDJJLRU QXPHUR GL FRQVXPDWRUL ILQDOL R VX XQ PLQRU QXPHUR GL LQWHUPHGLDUL PD DOWDPHQWHTXDOLILFDWLSHUUDJJLXQJHUHXQJUXSSRVHOH]LRQDWRGLFRQVXPDWRUL /DSULPDVROX]LRQHFKHqGLIDWWRTXHOODDGRWWDWDGD/RWWR6SRUWYLHQHGHILQLWD SROLWLFDGL. YHQGLWDLQWHQVLYD HLQJHQHUHYLHQHUHDOL]]DWDXWLOL]]DQGRSLFDQDOL/RWWRVLDYYDOHGLWUH WLSL SULQFLSDOL GL LQWHUPHGLDUL FRPPHUFLDOL TXLQGL L FDQDOL GLVWULEXWLYL VL DUWLFRODQR LQ WUH JUXSSLOH$JHQ]LHL'LVWULEXWRULH/LFHQ]LDWDULHGLO5HWDLO  /H$JHQ]LH  ,Q,WDOLDHQHL3DHVLSLLPSRUWDQWLG¶(XURSDFKHFRVWLWXLVFRQRLPHUFDWLGLULIHULPHQWRSHU O¶D]LHQGD OD UHWH GLVWULEXWLYD VL FRPSRQH GL VHWWH $JHQ]LH SL R PHQR VWUXWWXUDWH HVVH VRQRLQ,WDOLD)UDQFLD6SDJQD*HUPDQLD$XVWULD*UHFLDH5HJQR8QLWR /¶DJHQ]LD GL YHQGLWD q XQD IRUPD GL FRQWUDWWR FRQ FXL O¶DJHQWH DVVXPH VWDELOPHQWH O¶LQFDULFRGLSURPXRYHUHSHUFRQWRGHOSURGXWWRUHODFRQFOXVLRQHGLFRQWUDWWLGLYHQGLWDLQ XQDGHWHUPLQDWD]RQD 5LVSROL

(52) ,QVRVWDQ]DO¶DJHQWHRUHVSRQVDELOHGLPHUFDWRVL. 22.

(53) DVVXPH O¶LQFDULFR VWDELOH H TXLQGL FRQWLQXDWLYR GL SURPXRYHUH L SURGRWWL R VHUYL]L YHQGXWL GDOO¶D]LHQGD LO FRPSHQVR SHU TXHVWD DWWLYLWj FKLDPDWR SURYYLJLRQH FRQVLVWH GL VROLWR LQ XQDSHUFHQWXDOHVXOYDORUHGLRJQLDIIDUHFRQFOXVR 7DOH VWUDWHJLD GLVWULEXWLYD SHUPHWWH GL DYHUH XQ RWWLPR FRQWUROOR GHO PHUFDWR QHO TXDOH VL YD DG RSHUDUH JUD]LH DOOH $JHQ]LH FKH UDSSUHVHQWDQR O¶D]LHQGD QHO WHUULWRULR HG q TXLQGL DGDWWDDL3DHVLGLULOHYDQ]DVWUDWHJLFDSHUO¶LPSUHVD  ,'LVWULEXWRULH/LFHQ]LDWDUL  ,Q JHQHUH SHU GLVWULEXLUH L SURGRWWL QHL 3DHVL SL ORQWDQL /RWWR VL DYYDOH GHO VXSSRUWR GL 'LVWULEXWRULH/LFHQ]LDWDUL,'LVWULEXWRULVRQRGHLFOLHQWLYHULHSURSULFLRqXQ¶D]LHQGDWHU]D FKH FRPSUD GD /RWWR H ULYHQGH SRL OD PHUFH DO GHWWDJOLR JHVWHQGR TXLQGL XQ PDJD]]LQR SURSULR 4XLQGL PHQWUH OH $JHQ]LH VRQR SUHVLHGXWH GLUHWWDPHQWH GDOOD VHGH PDGUH HG q GLUHWWDPHQWH /RWWR 6SRUW FKH VL DFFROOD L ULVFKL YHQGHQGR DL QHJR]L ILQDOL WUDPLWH DJHQWL VLWXDWL QHOOH QD]LRQL GL ULIHULPHQWR FRQ L 'LVWULEXWRUL OD FDWHQD GLVWULEXWLYD ULFKLHGH XQ SDVVDJJLR XOWHULRUH D FDXVD GHOOD SUHVHQ]D GL XQ¶LPSUHVD LQ ORFR FKH VL LQFDULFD GL GLVWULEXLUH DL QHJR]L ILQDOL JOL DUWLFROL PDUFKLDWL /RWWR &RQ TXHVWD WLSRORJLD GLVWULEXWLYD LO FDULFRGLULVFKLRQRQqSLVXOOHVSDOOHGHOODFDVDPDGUHPDVXTXHOOHGHOULYHQGLWRUHFKHVL PHWWHLQJLRFRHVLDXWRJHVWLVFH ,/LFHQ]LDWDULKDQQRODOLFHQ]DGLSURGXUUHHGLVWULEXLUHSURGRWWL/RWWRSDJDQGRDOO¶D]LHQGD FRPH FRQWURSUHVWD]LRQH SHU O¶XVR GHO PDUFKLR XQD UR\DOW\ RVVLD XQ FRPSHQVR SHVDWR VHFRQGR LO YDORUH GHO YHQGXWR (VVL SRVVRQR DFTXLVWDUH GHL SURGRWWL GD /RWWR DO ILQH GL GLVWULEXLUOL SHUz D GLIIHUHQ]D GHL 'LVWULEXWRUL SRVVRQR DQFKH VYLOXSSDUH DOFXQL PRGHOOL GLYHUVLGDOODFROOH]LRQHGHOODFDVDPDGUHLQPRGRGDVRGGLVIDUHDOPHJOLRLOORURPHUFDWRGL ULIHULPHQWRGHFLGHQGRVHULFKLHGHUQHODSURGX]LRQHD/RWWRRVFHJOLHUHDOWULIRUQLWRULSUHYLD DXWRUL]]D]LRQHGHOODFDVDPDGUH/RWWRKDFRQFHVVROLFHQ]HDGD]LHQGHGLVWULEXLWHLQSLGL 3DHVLQHOPRQGRORQWDQLGDOODUHDOWj(XURSHD 4XHVWDWLSRORJLDGLFRQWUDWWRSHUPHWWHGLRWWHQHUHXQDUHD]LRQHUDSLGDDLFDPELDPHQWLGHO PHUFDWRVRSUDWWXWWRJUD]LHDOODYLFLQDQ]DGHLSDUWQHUDOFRQVXPDWRUHILQDOH VLDLQWHUPLQL 1. ,GLVWULEXWRULVLWURYDQRLQ$UDELD6DXGLWD%ROLYLD%RVQLD%XOJDULD&LSUR&URD]LD&XED'DQLPDUFD(PLUDWL$UDEL (TXDGRU(VWRQLD*KDQD,UODQGD,VODQGD.XZDLW/HWWRQLD/LWXDQLD0DOWD1RUYHJLD3DUDJXD\3HU3RORQLD3RUWRJDOOR 4DWDU5HSXEEOLFD&HFD5RPDQLD5XVVLD(XURSHD6HUELD6LEHULD6ORYDFFKLD6ORYHQLD6XULQDPH6YH]LD6YL]]HUD8FUDLQD 8QJKHULD8UXJXD\. 23.

(54) JHRJUDILFL FKH FXOWXUDOL

(55)  4XHVWL SDHVL SRVVRQR ULYROJHUVL SHU L ORUR DFTXLVWL DOOH GXH. 7UDGLQJVGLSURSULHWj/RWWR  ,O5HWDLO  2JJL/RWWRqSUHVHQWHLQSLGL3DHVLHGqLQFRQWLQXDHYROX]LRQHFHUFDQGRGLDIIHUPDUVL FRPH UHDOWj LPSRUWDQWH D OLYHOOR PRQGLDOH QHO VHWWRUH GHOO¶DEELJOLDPHQWR H GHOOD FDO]DWXUD VSRUWLYD/¶D]LHQGDKDVYLOXSSDWRQHJOLDQQLXQDUHWHGLVWULEXWLYDPLUDWDHEHQVWXGLDWDFKH FRPSUHQGH ROWUH DOOH WLSRORJLH VRSUD LQGLFDWH DQFKH XQD VHULH GL FRUQHU /RWWR H QHJR]L PRQRPDUFDLQ,WDOLDHDOO¶HVWHUR LQWXWWRROWUH

(56) FKHOHSHUPHWWRQRGLHVVHUHSUHVHQWH LQ PRGR DQFRU SL FDSLOODUH , FRUQHU VRQR DQFKH FKLDPDWL VKRS LQ VKRS OHWWHUDOPHQWH VRQRGHJOL³DQJROL´GLHVSRVL]LRQHSURGRWWLVROLWDPHQWHORFDOL]]DWLDOO LQWHUQRGLSXQWLYHQGLWD WUDWWDQWL EHQL GXUHYROL L QHJR]L PRQRPDUFD VRQR LQYHFH SXQWL YHQGLWD GL SURGRWWL IDFHQWL FDSRDGXQXQLFREUDQG 'LIDWWROH$JHQ]LHFRVWLWXLVFRQRXQFDQDOHLQGLUHWWRPHGLROXQJRL'LVWULEXWRULXQFDQDOH LQGLUHWWROXQJRL/LFHQ]LDWDULLOFDQDOHLQGLUHWWRSLOXQJRLQDVVROXWRPHQWUHLO 5HWDLO qXQ FDQDOHGLUHWWR. .  )LJXUD±,3DHVLVHUYLWLGD/RWWRQHO0RQGR . 2. ,OLFHQ]LDWDULVLWURYDQRLQ$UJHQWLQD$XVWUDOLD%HQHOX[%UDVLOH%UXQHL&DQDGD&LOH&LQD&RORPELD(JLWWR*LDSSRQH &RUHD+RQJ.RQJ,QGLD,QGRQHVLD,VUDHOH0DOD\D0HVVLFR1XRYD=HODQGD6HEDK6DUDZDN6LQJDSRUH7DLZDQ 7DLODQGLD7XQLVLD7XUFKLD86$9HQH]XHOD9LHWQDP. 24.

(57) ,PSRUWDQWHqDQFKHODGLVWLQ]LRQHWUDWLSRORJLHGLFOLHQWH,GHWWDJOLDQWLVHUYLWLGLUHWWDPHQWH GD/RWWRDWWUDYHUVROH$JHQ]LHYHQJRQRFODVVLILFDWLLQXQDGHWHUPLQDWD7LSRORJLD&OLHQWHD VHFRQGDGHOO¶LPSRUWDQ]DVWUDWHJLFDFKHULYHVWRQRHGHOWLSRGLGLVWULEX]LRQHLQSDUWLFRODUH.  .H\ $FFRXQWV FOLHQWL VWUDWHJLFDPHQWH SL LPSRUWDQWL YHQJRQR FKLDPDWL .H\ $FFRXQW H VRQRFRQVLGHUDWLOHFRORQQHSRUWDQWLGHOODGLYXOJD]LRQHGHOPDUFKLR/RWWRVRQRFRORURFKH DFTXLVWDQGR XQ HOHYDWR TXDQWLWDWLYR GL PHUFH SRUWDQR DOO¶D]LHQGD XQ PDJJLRU IDWWXUDWR (VVLKDQQRLQROWUHXQWUDWWDPHQWRSDUWLFRODUHHVRQRUHJRODUPHQWHVHJXLWLGDXQFXVWRPHU. VHUYLFH FKH VL RFFXSD HVFOXVLYDPHQWH GL ORUR 6RQR JHQHUDOPHQWH FRVWLWXLWL GD JUXSSL GL DFTXLVWR DGHVHPSLR,QWHUVSRUW

(58) RGDFDWHQHGHOODJUDQGHGLVWULEX]LRQHRUJDQL]]DWD.  5HWDLOHUV FOLHQWL PHGLRSLFFROL FRVWLWXLWL GD XQR R DOFXQL SXQWL YHQGLWD DFTXLVWDQR VROR SRFKL DUWLFROL H PDJDUL VROR DOFXQH WLSRORJLH GL SURGRWWR LQ EDVH DOOH FRPSHWHQ]H GHO QHJR]LR6LWUDWWDGLFOLHQWLGLGLPHQVLRQLVROLWDPHQWHSLSLFFROHSHUORSLLQGLSHQGHQWLFLRq QRQOHJDWLDJUXSSLGLDFTXLVWR  /H&ROOH]LRQL  8QD FRQVLGHUD]LRQH PROWR LPSRUWDQWH GD WHQHU SUHVHQWH DL ILQL GHOOD FRPSUHQVLRQH GHOOH VHJXHQWL DQDOLVL q FKH QHO PRQGR GHOOD FDO]DWXUD H GHOO¶DEELJOLDPHQWR LO SHULRGR GL ULIHULPHQWR q GD FRQVLGHUDUVL VHPHVWUDOH H QRQ DQQXDOH GDWD OD QDWXUDOH VWDJLRQDOLWj GHO SURGRWWR PRGD 3HUFLz VL ULIHULVFRQR DG XQ DUFR GL WHPSR VHPHVWUDOH LO SURFHVVR GL. IRUHFDVWLQJHGLQSDUWHDQFKHLOSURFHVVRGLEXGJHWLQJFKHLQVHJXLWRYHUUDQQRLOOXVWUDWL 'DWRFKHLOSHULRGRGLULIHULPHQWRqVHPHVWUDOHGXHVRQROHFROOH]LRQLUHDOL]]DWHHGXHOH FRQVHJXHQWLFDPSDJQHYHQGLWDVHJXLWHGDOO¶D]LHQGDQHOO¶DUFRGHLGRGLFLPHVLGLXQDQQR •. ОODFDPSDJQDYHQGLWH 6SULQJ6XPPHU FRGLILFDWD66

(59) ODFXLUDFFROWDRUGLQLSDUWHD JLXJQR H SURVHJXH ILQR D QRYHPEUH ULJXDUGD WXWWL JOL DUWLFROL FKH YHQJRQR SUHVHQWDWLQHLQHJR]LGDJHQQDLRDPDJJLR. •. ОODFDPSDJQDYHQGLWH )DOO:LQWHU LQYHFH FRGLILFDWD):

(60) ODFXLUDFFROWDRUGLQLSDUWH D GLFHPEUH H VL SURWUDH ILQR D PDJJLR ID ULIHULPHQWR D WXWWL TXHL SURGRWWL FKH YHQJRQRYHQGXWLGDJLXJQRDQRYHPEUH. 8QD FROOH]LRQH q SHU GHILQL]LRQH XQD JDPPD GL SURGRWWL FKH O¶D]LHQGD SURGXWWULFH VWXGLD UHDOL]]D H SURSRQH DO PHUFDWR SHU XQD GHWHUPLQDWD VWDJLRQH H FKH YHUUj HYHQWXDOPHQWH. 25.

(61) ULQQRYDWDQHOOHVWDJLRQLVXFFHVVLYHLQULVSRVWDDOOHHYROX]LRQLGHOODPRGDDOOHWHQGHQ]HGHO PHUFDWRHDLSURJUHVVLQHOODWHFQRORJLDGLSURGRWWR 8QD FDPSDJQD YHQGLWH FRQVLVWH LQYHFH QHOO¶DUFR WHPSRUDOH GXUDQWH LO TXDOH O¶D]LHQGD SURGXWWULFH VYROJH GHWHUPLQDWH D]LRQL FRPPHUFLDOL SHU SUHVHQWDUH H SURPXRYHUH OD FROOH]LRQH DO PHUFDWR H GXUDQWH LO TXDOH DYYHQJRQR OD UDFFROWD RUGLQL GHL FOLHQWL H VXFFHVVLYDPHQWHODFRQVHJQDGHOODPHUFHYHQGXWD ,O OHDG WLPH FRPSOHVVLYR SHU OR VYLOXSSR GL XQD FROOH]LRQH q XQ DQQR  VHWWLPDQH

(62)  GXUDQWH LO TXDOH DYYLHQH XQD FRQWLQXD DWWLYLWj WUDVYHUVDOH GL UDFFROWD LQIRUPD]LRQL VXO PHUFDWRLOWXWWRVWUXWWXUDWRLQGLYHUVHIDVL  /D%XVLQHVV8QLW(0($  /¶DQDOLVL q VWDWD HIIHWWXDWD FRQVLGHUDQGR O¶DQGDPHQWR GHOOH YHQGLWH GHOOD %XVLQHVV 8QLW (0($  (XURSH 0LGGOH(DVW H $IULFD

(63)  O¶DUHD VWUDWHJLFD G¶DIIDUL SL JUDQGH HG LPSRUWDQWH GHOO¶D]LHQGDVLDGDOSXQWRGLYLVWDGHOOHYHQGLWHFKHGHOIDWWXUDWRFRQFLUFDO¶GHOWRWDOH GHOO¶D]LHQGD DQQR

(64) .  . ±5LSDUWL]LRQH)DWWXUDWR%8(0($  /D ULSDUWL]LRQH GHO IDWWXUDWR GL TXHVWD GLYLVLRQH SHU OH WUH WLSRORJLH GL SURGRWWR q FRVu VWUXWWXUDWD OH VFDUSH UDSSUHVHQWDQR LO  GHO WRWDOH JOL DFFHVVRUL VRODPHQWH LO  PHQWUH q O¶DEELJOLDPHQWR LO YHUR SXQWR GL IRU]D GHOO¶D]LHQGD DQFKH QHOOD %XVLQHVV 8QLW (0($ FKH IDWWXUD EHQ LO  GHO WRWDOH Ê TXLQGL QRWHYROH OD WUDVIRUPD]LRQH FKH QHO WHPSR KD VXELWR O¶RIIHUWD GHOO¶D]LHQGD QDWD SXQWDQGR VXOOD VFDUSD GD WHQQLV H TXLQGL. 26.

(65) SDUWHQGR GDO VHWWRUH SHUIRUPDQFH q FUHVFLXWD VYLOXSSDQGR LPSRUWDQWL OLQHH GL DEELJOLDPHQWRHSURGRWWLGHOVHWWRUHOHLVXUH  )DWWXUDWR/RWWR6SRUW,WDOLD. $&&(6625,(6 $33$5(/ 6+2(6. . )DWWXUDWR PLOLRQLGLHXUR

(66).           . . . . . . . DQQR. . . )LJXUD±)DWWXUDWR/RWWRQHOWHPSRSHUWLSRSURGRWWR.   ±3ODQQLQJ &RQWUROOLQJ$QDO\VLV  /¶HVSHULHQ]DGLVWDJHLQ/RWWRVLqUHDOL]]DWDSUHVVRO¶XIILFLR3ODQQLQJ &RQWUROOLQJ$QDO\VLV RUJDQR GL VXSSRUWR VWDWLVWLFR SHU O¶LQWHUD D]LHQGD FKH VL RFFXSD WUD OH YDULH FRVH DQFKH GHOO¶HIIHWWXD]LRQH GHOOH DQDOLVL VWDWLVWLFKH VXL GDWL GL RUGLQDWR H GL IDWWXUDWR GHOO¶D]LHQGD L TXDOLFRVWLWXLVFRQRODEDVHLQIRUPDWLYDQHFHVVDULDSHUPHWWHUHLQDWWRJOLVYDULDWLSURFHVVLGL FXLHVVRGLUHWWDPHQWHVLRFFXSDHFKHVRQR •. ,O SURFHVVR GL IRUHFDVWLQJ RVVLD GL SUHYLVLRQH GHOOH YHQGLWH UHODWLYH DG RJQL FROOH]LRQH XWLOH SHU SLDQLILFDUH OD SURGX]LRQH FRQ LO JLXVWR DQWLFLSR HG HYLWDUH LO ULVFKLRGLXQDFFXPXORHFFHVVLYRGLPHUFHQHOPDJD]]LQR. •. ,O SURFHVVR GL WDUJHWLQJ LO TXDOH SRUWD DOOD ILVVD]LRQH GHJOL RELHWWLYL GL YHQGLWD FRHUHQWL FRQ LO EXGJHW

(67)  GD DVVHJQDUH DG RJQL UHVSRQVDELOH GL %8 LO TXDOH SRL GLVWULEXLUjLOSURSULRWDUJHWWUDOHYDULHDUHHJHRJUDILFKHFKHJHVWLVFH. •. ,O SURFHVVR GL UHSRUWLQJ LO TXDOH FRQVHQWH OD SUHGLVSRVL]LRQH GL GRFXPHQWL SURVSHWWLFL FRQWHQHQWL LQIRUPD]LRQL GL YDULR WLSR ULJXDUGDQWL OH DWWLYLWj VYROWH GDOO¶D]LHQGD FRPHO¶DQGDPHQWRGHOOHYHQGLWHODJHVWLRQHGHOPDJD]]LQRHFF

(68) XWLOL DOPDQDJHPHQWLQIDVHGHFLVLRQDOH. 27.

(69) •. ,OSURFHVVRGLSULFLQJLOTXDOHSRUWDDOODGHILQL]LRQHGHLSUH]]LGLYHQGLWDGDDSSOLFDUH DFLDVFXQSURGRWWRGLRJQLFROOH]LRQHHFKHFRLQYROJHDQFKHODJHVWLRQHDWWHQWDGHO FRPSOHVVRXQLYHUVRGHLOLVWLQLSURGRWWRGHOO¶D]LHQGD. (VVHQGR XQ RUJDQR SUHSRVWR DO VXSSRUWR LQIRUPDWLYR ULVXOWD HYLGHQWH FKH LO SDUFR GDWL D GLVSRVL]LRQHGHJOLDQDOLVWLFKHYLODYRUDQRGHYHHVVHUHLQDVVROXWRLOSLDPSLRSRVVLELOH  . 28.

(70) &$3,72/2,,±0(72',(2%,(77,9,'(//(35(9,6,21,67$7,67,&+(  ±/DSUHYLVLRQHLQD]LHQGD 3HU OH D]LHQGH OH SUHYLVLRQL VRQR XQR VWUXPHQWR LQGLVSHQVDELOH DO ILQH GL SUHYHGHUQH O¶DQGDPHQWR H SURJHWWDUH XQR VYLOXSSR FKH SHUPHWWD XQD PDJJLRUH HIILFLHQ]D ,Q SDUWLFRODUHOHSUHYLVLRQLGHOOHYHQGLWHKDQQRXQDULOHYDQ]DRSHUDWLYDQHOOHGHFLVLRQLUD]LRQDOL TXDOLO¶RUJDQL]]D]LRQHGHOOHULVRUVHHGHOOHIXQ]LRQLD]LHQGDOLFRPHJOLDFTXLVWLLOSHUVRQDOH OD SURGX]LRQH 3HU TXDQWR ULJXDUGD LQYHFH XQ¶RWWLFD GL OXQJR SHULRGR OH SUHYLVLRQL GHOOH YHQGLWHSHUPHWWRQRGLRUJDQL]]DUHOHULVRUVHHLSLDQLGLLQYHVWLPHQWR 1HOORVSHFLILFROHSUHYLVLRQLLQD]LHQGDYDOJRQRFRPHVWUXPHQWRFKHVXSSRUWDOHGHFLVLRQLH LQGLUL]]DQR L UHVSRQVDELOL YHUVR OH VFHOWH SL LQGLFDWH LQ EDVH DL GDWL GL YHQGLWD SDVVDWL ,QIDWWLTXHVWRVWUXPHQWRSHUPHWWHXQ¶LQIHUHQ]DVXLYDORULIXWXULGHOIHQRPHQRVRWWRVWXGLR FKHVLEDVD VXOO¶DQGDPHQWRGHOODVXDVWRULDSDVVDWDVLDQGUjTXLQGLFHUFDQGRXQD UHJROD FKH LQWHUSUHWL O¶DQGDPHQWR GHO IHQRPHQR SRSROD]LRQH

(71)  LQ EDVH DL GDWL D QRVWUD GLVSRVL]LRQH FDPSLRQH

(72) HFRQTXHVWDVLLSRWL]]DQRGHLYDORULIXWXUL,OSUREOHPDSULQFLSDOH VWD GXQTXH QHO GHGXUUH XQD IXQ]LRQH FKH WHQJD FRQWR GHOOH YDULDELOL SL ULOHYDQWL SHU LO IHQRPHQR LQ TXHVWLRQH VHQ]D SHUz FRPSURPHWWHUQH OD IUXLELOLWj H O¶DJJLRUQDPHQWR RJQLTXDOYROWD VL GLVSRQJDQR GL QXRYL H SL UHFHQWL GDWL /D SUHYLVLRQH KD TXLQGL ILQL GL RULHQWDPHQWR H GL GHFLVLRQH VWUDWHJLFD PD ELVRJQD SHUz WHQHU SUHVHQWH FKH LQ XQ TXDOXQTXHPRGHOORFRVWUXLWRSHUO¶DQDOLVLGLXQIHQRPHQRVLDHVVRHFRQRPLFRVRFLDOHRGL DOWUDQDWXUDqLPSRVVLELOHLQFOXGHUHODWRWDOLWjGHOOHYDULDELOLHGHOOHUHOD]LRQLQHFHVVDULHSHU XQD FRPSOHWD VSLHJD]LRQH R LQWHUSUHWD]LRQH GHL GDWL Ê SHUz SRVVLELOH VXSSRUUH FKH OH LQIRUPD]LRQL ULJXDUGDQWL LO SDVVDWR DGHJXDWDPHQWH HODERUDWH IRUQLVFDQR XQ YDOLGR VWUXPHQWRFKHSHUPHWWDGLULGXUUHO¶LQFHUWH]]DGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLVHPSUHFRQVFLGHOIDWWRFKH QRQVDUjSRVVLELOHXQDIHGHOHHGHVDWWDULSHWL]LRQHGHJOLDFFDGLPHQWLSDVVDWL 1HOOH D]LHQGH OH SUHYLVLRQL VRQR XQR VWUXPHQWR FKH LQIOXHQ]D LQ PDQLHUD HYLGHQWH OR VYLOXSSRGLXQEXRQ PDQDJHPHQWHXQHIILFLHQWHDSSDUDWRGLFRQWUROORGLJHVWLRQHSHUFKp GHYRQR JDUDQWLUH GHOOH SROLWLFKH GL SURGX]LRQH H FRPPHUFLDOL]]D]LRQH DGHJXDWH DJOL RELHWWLYLSRVWLGDOO¶D]LHQGD3HUFLzOHSUHYLVLRQLFRQVLVWRQRQHOODVWLPDGHOO¶HYROX]LRQHIXWXUD GL XQ IHQRPHQR D SDUWLUH GDOOR VWDWR DWWXDOH H WHQHQGR SUHVHQWH OD VXD HYROX]LRQH SUHFHGHQWH 3URSULR SHU TXHVWH ORUR FDUDWWHULVWLFKH L SLDQL GL SUHYLVLRQH SHUPHWWRQR GL FRRUGLQDUHOHYDULHDWWLYLWjLQWHUQHDOO¶D]LHQGDHPHGLDUQHJOLRELHWWLYLGDOODSURGX]LRQHDO. 29.

(73) PDUNHWLQJ GDOOD GLUH]LRQH ILQDQ]LDULD D TXHOOD DPPLQLVWUDWLYD /D SUHYLVLRQH q GXQTXH XQ HOHPHQWR GLQDPLFR FKH FROOHJD H ULIOHWWH OH WHQGHQ]H LQ DWWR H KD TXLQGL XQ UXROR IRQGDPHQWDOHQHOSURFHVVRVWUDWHJLFRSHUFKpSHUPHWWHXQD JHVWLRQHGLQDPLFDH FRQWLQXD GL WXWWD O¶D]LHQGD IRUQHQGR GHOOH LQGLFD]LRQL VXO SL SUREDELOH DQGDPHQWR QHOO¶LPPHGLDWR IXWXUR 4XHVWR SURFHVVR GL SUHYLVLRQH LQWHUDJLVFH FRPH GHWWR FRQ WXWWH OH IXQ]LRQL D]LHQGDOL H LQ SDUWLFRODUH FRQ L UHVSRQVDELOL FRPPHUFLDOL L TXDOL YHQJRQR D FRQRVFHQ]D GHOO¶DQGDPHQWR SURVVLPR GHOOH YHQGLWH L UHVSRQVDELOL GL SURGX]LRQH SHU RWWLPL]]DUH L SURFHVVL GL SURGX]LRQH H JOL DGGHWWL DOO¶DPPLQLVWUD]LRQH FKH JHVWLUDQQR FRVu LQ PRGR RWWLPDOHLOEXGJHWJUD]LHDOODSRVVLELOLWjGLDJJLRUQDPHQWRFRQWLQXRSHUPHWWRQRLQROWUHXQ FRQWUROORVWUDWHJLFRGLRJQLVHWWRUHD]LHQGDOH 8QD FRUUHWWD GHWHUPLQD]LRQH GHOOH YHQGLWH IXWXUH ULGXFH LQXWLOL LQYHVWLPHQWL QHOOD SURGX]LRQHGLTXDQWLWjQRQYHQGLELOLRYLFHYHUVDLOULVFKLRGLHVDXULPHQWLGHOOHVFRUWHFRQ FRQVHJXHQWH SHUGLWD GL FRPSHWLWLYLWj QHO PHUFDWR H TXLQGL GL SURILWWR /D IOXLGLWj GHOOH GLVSRQLELOLWjDOO¶LQWHUQRGHOO¶D]LHQGDUDSSUHVHQWDODVXDIRU]DHODVXDYLWDOLWjHODVXFFHVVLYD WUDVIRUPD]LRQH LQ SURGRWWR ILQLWR VH QRQ VXFFHVVLYDPHQWH YHQGXWR UDSSUHVHQWD XQ¶LQHYLWDELOH SHUGLWD GL SURILWWR 4XHVWD VHPSOLFH VLWXD]LRQH EDVWD D UDSSUHVHQWDUH O¶LPSRUWDQ]DGHOODSUHYLVLRQHGHOOHYHQGLWHLQD]LHQGDDQFRUSLLQXQ¶D]LHQGDFRPH/RWWR 6SRUW,WDOLDGRYHFRPHDEELDPRJLjYLVWRODPHUFHFKHYLHQHLPPHVVDQHOPHUFDWRYLHQH DFTXLVWDWDJLjVRWWRIRUPDGLSURGRWWRILQLWR ,SLDQLGLSUHYLVLRQHYHQJRQRHODERUDWLGDSLPHPEULDOO¶LQWHUQRGHOO¶D]LHQGDSRLFKpLVROL PHWRGL VWDWLVWLFL GL SUHYLVLRQH VFLHQWLILFL HG RJJHWWLYL QRQ VRQR VXIILFLHQWL LQ TXDQWR WDOL PD YDQQR LQWHJUDWL GD IDWWRUL VRJJHWWLYL TXDOL O¶HVSHULHQ]D H O¶LQWXLWR GHL PDQDJHU FKH DGDWWDQR OD VLWXD]LRQH DG HYHQWXDOL FDPELDPHQWL DPELHQWDOL 4XLQGL OD TXDQWLILFD]LRQH GL JLXGL]L TXDOLWDWLYL FL FRQVHQWH GL DJJLXQJHUH O¶LQGLVSHQVDELOH HOHPHQWR GL ³QRYLWj´ FKH XQ¶LPSRVWD]LRQHSXUDPHQWHVWDWLVWLFDKDPDJJLRUHGLIILFROWjDGDFFRJOLHUH(FFRSHUFKpOH SUHYLVLRQL VWDWLVWLFKH SXU HVVHQGR XQ EXRQ SXQWR GL SDUWHQ]D D VXSSRUWR GHL SURFHVVL GHFLVLRQDOLQHFHVVLWDQRGLXQ¶LQWHJUD]LRQHGDSDUWHGLPDQDJHUHILJXUHD]LHQGDOLSUHSRVWH  ±/HVHULHVWRULFKH  3HUVHULHVWRULFD RWHPSRUDOH

(74) VLLQWHQGHXQLQVLHPHGLGDWLRUGLQDWLVHFRQGRLOWHPSRLQ. 30.

(75) DOWUH SDUROH XQD VXFFHVVLRQH GL GDWL QXPHULFL QHOOD TXDOH RJQL GDWR q DVVRFLDWR DG XQ SDUWLFRODUH LVWDQWH RG LQWHUYDOOR WHPSRUDOH 'L )RQ]R /LVL 

(76)  6H LQ FLDVFXQ SXQWR R LQWHUYDOORGHOWHPSRYLHQHRVVHUYDWRXQVRORIHQRPHQRDOORUDODVHULHFKHQHGHULYDYLHQH GHWWD XQLYDULDWD VH LQYHFH OH YDULDELOL RVVHUYDWH VRQR SL G¶XQD VL KD XQD VHULH PXOWLYDULDWD 8QD VHULH VWRULFD XQLYDULDWD <W W  «Q

(77)  q TXLQGL XQD VXFFHVVLRQH RUGLQDWD GL RVVHUYD]LRQL UHODWLYH DG XQ FHUWR IHQRPHQR <W HVDPLQDWR FRQ ULIHULPHQWR DOOD VXD HYROX]LRQH ULVSHWWR OD YDULDELOH W LO WHPSR /¶RUGLQDPHQWR WHPSRUDOH QHOOR VWXGLR GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH DVVXPH XQ UXROR IRQGDPHQWDOH LQIDWWL q OHFLWR SUHVXPHUH FKH YL VLD GLSHQGHQ]D WUD RVVHUYD]LRQL VXFFHVVLYH H FKH WDOH GLSHQGHQ]D VLD OHJDWD DOOD SRVL]LRQH GHOO¶RVVHUYD]LRQHQHOODVHTXHQ]D 8QD VHULH VWRULFD SXz HVVHUH GL WLSR GHWHUPLQLVWLFR QHO VHQVR FKH SXz HVVHUH SUHYLVWD LQ PRGR HVDWWR VXOOD EDVH GHOOD SURSULD VWRULD SDVVDWD PD OD PDJJLRU SDUWH GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKHqGLWLSRVWRFDVWLFRSHUTXHVWHXOWLPHLOIXWXURYLHQHGHWHUPLQDWRGDOSDVVDWRVROR LQPLVXUD SDU]LDOHUHQGHQGRTXLQGLLPSRVVLELOHO¶HODERUD]LRQHGLSUHYLVLRQLGHO WXWWRSULYH G¶HUURUH 8Q PRGHOOR VWDWLVWLFR UDSSUHVHQWD TXLQGL XQ WHQWDWLYR GL GHVFULYHUH OD OHJJH VWDWLVWLFD VRWWRVWDQWH L GDWL H JHQHUDWULFH GHJOL VWHVVL HG KD XQD GXSOLFH IXQ]LRQH VLD TXHOOD GL JHQHUDUHLYDORULSHULPRPHQWLSDVVDWLHSUHVHQWL ODFRVLGGHWWDIXQ]LRQHGL DGDWWDPHQWR GHO PRGHOOR DL GDWL HVLVWHQWL GHOOD VHULH

(78)  VLD TXHOOD GL JHQHUDUH GHL YDORUL SHU LO IXWXUR OD IXQ]LRQHSUHYLVLYD

(79)  6LSUHVHQWDGXQTXHLOFRQFHWWRGLSUHYLVLRQHODSUHYLVLRQHGLXQGDWRIHQRPHQRqODVWLPD SXQWXDOHRLQWHUYDOODUHGHLYDORULIXWXULFKHLOIHQRPHQRSXzDVVXPHUHFRVWUXLWDVXOODEDVH GHLYDORULSDVVDWLHSUHVHQWLHVSOLFLWDWLVRWWRIRUPDGLPRGHOOR/DERQWjGHOOHSUHYLVLRQLq GXQTXHVWUHWWDPHQWHGLSHQGHQWHGDOPRGHOORVFHOWR   ±$SSURFFLRFODVVLFRHDSSURFFLRPRGHUQR  8Q PRGHOOR VWRFDVWLFR SXz HVVHUH JHQHUDOPHQWH GHVFULWWR GD XQ SURFHVVR JHQHUDWRUH GHL GDWL GL XQD VHULH VWRULFD <W W Q

(80)  UHODWLYD DG XQD YDULDELOH <W q GDWR GD <W  I W

(81) X GRYHVLDVVXPHFKHODVHULHRVVHUYDWDVLDODFRPSRVL]LRQHGL. 31.

(82) o. 8QD FRPSRQHQWH WRWDOPHQWH GHWHUPLQLVWLFD I W

(83)  FKH FRVWLWXLVFH OD SDUWH VLVWHPDWLFD GHOODVHULH. o. 8QDVHTXHQ]DGLYDULDELOLFDVXDOLXWFKHUDSSUHVHQWDODSDUWHVWRFDVWLFDGHOODVHULHHG REEHGLVFHDGXQDGDWDOHJJHGLSUREDELOLWj. 1HOO¶DSSURFFLR FODVVLFR DOOR VWXGLR GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH VL VXSSRQH HVLVWD XQD OHJJH GL HYROX]LRQH WHPSRUDOH GHO IHQRPHQR UDSSUHVHQWDWD GD I W

(84)  /D FRPSRQHQWH FDVXDOH XW YLHQH LQYHFH DVVXQWD GL HQWLWj WUDVFXUDELOH H QRQ YLHQH FRQVLGHUDWD DOO¶LQWHUQR GL I W

(85)  , UHVLGXLGL<WFKHQRQVDUDQQRVSLHJDWLGDOPRGHOORYHQJRQRTXLQGLDVVLPLODWLFRPHHUURUL DFFLGHQWDOL 4XHVWR HTXLYDOH DG LSRWL]]DUH FKH OD FRPSRQHQWH VWRFDVWLFD GHO PRGHOOR VLD JHQHUDWDGDXQSURFHVVR ZKLWHQRLVHRVVLDXQDVXFFHVVLRQHGLYDULDELOLFDVXDOLLQFRUUHODWH DPHGLD]HURHYDULDQ]DFRVWDQWHİa:1 ı2). In questo approccio si concentra quindi tutta l’attenzione su f(t), avendo considerato ut trascurabile. Per alcuni tipi di serie però questo tipo di approccio classico non è adeguato perché può non essere presente nessuna delle componenti di f(t) che descriveremo nella prossima sezione, oppure perché, qualora presenti, tali componenti potrebbero avere andamenti tali da non poter essere modellati on questo modo. In questi casi è più utile cercare di modellare la componente stocastica ipotizzando che il meccanismo che genera i dati sia governato da regole probabilistiche (Di Fonzo, Lisi, 2005). Questo modo di approcciarsi alla serie si definisce approccio moderno all’analisi delle serie storiche secondo il quale viene trascurata la parte deterministica f(t) e con un opportuno modello della componente stocastica uW. è possibile estrarre dalle serie ulteriori informazioni, soprattutto a fini. previsivi.   ±/¶DSSURFFLRFODVVLFR  &RQ O¶DSSURFFLR FODVVLFR DOO¶DQDOLVL GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH VL DVVXPH FKH OD SDUWH VLVWHPDWLFD. I W

(86)  VLD LO ULVXOWDWR GHOO¶D]LRQH FRQJLXQWD GHOOH VHJXHQWL TXDWWUR FRPSRQHQWL QRQ GLUHWWDPHQWHRVVHUYDELOLPDFKLDUDPHQWHGHILQLELOL o. LO WUHQG R FRPSRQHQWH WHQGHQ]LDOH q OD WHQGHQ]D GL IRQGR GHO IHQRPHQR LQ RVVHUYD]LRQHFKHVLQRWDQHOOXQJRSHULRGR. 32.

(87) o. LO FLFOR q FRVWLWXLWR GDOOH IOXWWXD]LRQL DWWRUQR DO WUHQG DWWULEXLELOL DOOH HVSDQVLRQL H FRQWUD]LRQLFRQJLXQWXUDOLGRYXWHDOO¶DWWLYLWjHFRQRPLFDVSHVVRLOFLFORYLHQHDVVLPLODWR DOWUHQGHVLVWXGLDQRLQPRGRFRQJLXQWRFRPHXQ¶XQLFDFRPSRQHQWH. o. OD VWDJLRQDOLWjqFRPSRVWDGDWXWWLLPRYLPHQWLGHOIHQRPHQRFKHQHOFRUVRGHOO¶DQQR WHQGRQRDULSHWHUVLLQPRGRTXDVLDQDORJRQHOORVWHVVRSHULRGRLQDQQLVXFFHVVLYL. o. O¶HUURUHqLQYHFHODFRPSRQHQWHLUUHJRODUHGHOIHQRPHQRLQTXHVWLRQHFKHUDFFRJOLH WXWWH OH YDULD]LRQL GRYXWH DOOH FDXVH SL SDUWLFRODUL FKH QRQ IDQQR SDUWH GL TXHOOH HOHQFDWH LQ SUHFHGHQ]D 7XWWH OH VHULH VWRULFKH FKH QRQ VLDQR GL WLSR SXUDPHQWH GHWHUPLQLVWLFRSUHVHQWDQRGHOOHLUUHJRODULWjGLVHJQRSRVLWLYRHQHJDWLYRSURGRWWHGD XQFRPSRUWDPHQWRGLWLSRDOHDWRULR.  4XHVWH FRPSRQHQWL SRVVRQR HVVHUH FRPELQDWH LQ GLYHUVL PRGL GL DJJUHJD]LRQH L SL VHPSOLFLVRQR  . PRGHOORDGGLWLYR. PRGHOORPROWLSOLFDWLYR. PRGHOORPLVWR. . <W 7W&W6W İW. <W 7W &W 6W İW. <W 7W &W 6W İW. .  ,O PRGHOOR PROWLSOLFDWLYR SXz HVVHUH ULFRQGRWWR D TXHOOR DGGLWLYR FRQ O¶DSSOLFD]LRQH GL XQD WUDVIRUPD]LRQHORJDULWPLFDORJ<W ORJ7WORJ&WORJ6WlogİW 2FFRUUH TXLQGL VDSHU VWDELOLUH LO QXPHUR GHOOH FRPSRQHQWL LO PHWRGR FRQ FXL TXHVWH DJLVFRQR H VL FRPELQDQR H LO PHWRGR SHU O¶HQXFOHD]LRQH GL FLDVFXQD FRPSRQHQWH VFRSR GHOO¶DQDOLVL q LQIDWWL TXHOOR GL LVRODUH RJQXQD GL HVVH SHU SRL SRWHUOD VWXGLDUH FRQ SL SUHFLVLRQH 7UD L PHWRGL FKH FHUFDQR GL LVRODUH TXHVWH FRPSRQHQWL LO SL VHPSOLFH q UDSSUHVHQWDWR GDOOH PHGLH PRELOL RYYHUR WUDVIRUPD]LRQL OLQHDUL GHOOH RVVHUYD]LRQL /H PHGLHPRELOLYHQJRQRVROLWDPHQWHVFHOWHSHUDQQXOODUHLOWUHQGHFRQVHUYDUHODVWDJLRQDOLWj RYLFHYHUVDPDLQRJQLFDVRGHYRQRHOLPLQDUHRSHUORPHQRULGXUUHODFRPSRQHQWHHUUDWLFD 'L)RQ]R/LVL

(88) 6HDGHVHPSLRVLDSSOLFDXQD PHGLDPRELOHVHPSOLFHGLRUGLQH6 DGXQDVHULHRVVHUYDWDFRQWHQHQWHXQ¶RQGDGLSHULRGR6O¶RQGDYLHQHHOLPLQDWD$OORVWHVVR PRGR FRQVLGHUDQGR XQD VHULH VWRULFD GL RVVHUYD]LRQL PHQVLOL H DSSOLFDQGRYL XQD PHGLD. PRELOH FHQWUDWD GL  WHUPLQL VL RWWLHQH XQD VWLPD GHOOD FRPSRQHQWH GL WUHQGFLFOR /H PHGLH PRELOL SHUz QRQ SHUPHWWRQR GL IDUH SUHYLVLRQL H FRPSRUWDQR LQROWUH XQD SHUGLWD GL RVVHUYD]LRQLDOOHHVWUHPLWjGHOODVHULH. 33.

(89) 8Q DOWUR PHWRGR LO PHWRGR GHO OLVFLDPHQWR HVSRQHQ]LDOH H[SRQHQWLDO VPRRWKLQJ

(90)  q XQD SDUWLFRODUH DSSOLFD]LRQH GHO PHWRGR GHOOH PHGLH PRELOL FKH ULVXOWD SHUz PDJJLRUPHQWH LQWHUHVVDQWH H FRPSOHWR YLVWR FKH VIUXWWD XQ VLVWHPD GL SHVL GD DVVHJQDUH DOOH VLQJROH RVVHUYD]LRQLFKHSHUPHWWRQRGLVIUXWWDUHWXWWLLGDWLGHOSDVVDWRDQFKHTXHOOLSLORQWDQL   ±,OOLVFLDPHQWRHVSRQHQ]LDOH 'L)RQ]R/LVL

(91)   ,O OLVFLDPHQWR HVSRQHQ]LDOH q XQ PHWRGR EDVDWR VX PHGLH PRELOL SRQGHUDWH YHQJRQR DSSOLFDWLGHLSHVLFKHGHFUHVFRQRPDQPDQRFKHFLVLDOORQWDQDQHOWHPSR

(92) GLWXWWLLGDWL GHO SDVVDWR H QRQ VROR DL N YDORUL FRPH SHU OH PHGLH PRELOL VHPSOLFL 9LHQH FKLDPDWR HVSRQHQ]LDOH SHUFKp L SHVL VRQR GHILQLWL GDOOD VXFFHVVLRQH HVSRQHQ]LDOH c j = α ⋅ (1 − α ) j . M    « FRQ YLQFROR. ∞. ¦c. j. = 1

(93)  FRQ α  FRVWDQWH GL OLVFLDPHQWR  α 

(94)  6H SHU. j =0. HVHPSLR VL YXROH VWLPDUH XQD VHULH QRQ VWDJLRQDOH H VHQ]D WUHQG VLVWHPDWLFR VFRSR GHO OLVFLDPHQWR qTXHOORGL VWLPDUHLOOLYHOORGHOODVHULHHGLXWLOL]]DUHODVWLPDSHUSUHYHGHUHL YDORULIXWXUL t −1. yˆ t +1|t = c 0 y t + c1 y t −1 + c 2 y t − 2 + ... = α ⋅ ¦ (1 − α ) j y t − j  j =0. 3RLFKpVLSXzVFULYHUH yˆ t +1|t = α ⋅ y t + (1 − α ) ⋅ yˆ t|t −1 ODQXRYDSUHYLVLRQHSXzHVVHUHSHQVDWD FRPHODPHGLDSHVDWDWUDO¶XOWLPDRVVHUYD]LRQHGLVSRQLELOHHODYHFFKLDSUHYLVLRQH ,O YDORUH GL α  GHWHUPLQD TXDQWR LQIOXLVFH O¶RVVHUYD]LRQH FRUUHQWH VXOOD SUHYLVLRQH IXWXUD TXLQGLODVXDVFHOWDqPROWRULOHYDQWH o. VH α ≈ 1 DOORUDODSUHYLVLRQHVDUjPDJJLRUPHQWHLQIOXHQ]DWDGDLGDWLUHFHQWLPHQWUH DOORQWDQDQGRFLQHOWHPSRLSHVLGHFUHVFRQRGXQTXHODSUHYLVLRQHVDUjPROWRVLPLOH DOODSUHFHGHQWHRVVHUYD]LRQH. o. VH α ≈ 0 DOORUDODPHPRULDGHOSURFHVVRqPROWROXQJDHODSUHYLVLRQHGLSHQGHUjGD WXWWRLOSURFHVVRRVVHUYDWRDQFKHGDOOHRVVHUYD]LRQLPROWRUHPRWH. 6HO¶RELHWWLYRqXQDSUHYLVLRQHEDVDWDVXXQDVHULHFRQGDWLPROWRYDULDELOLVLGDUjSLSHVR D FLz FKH q DSSHQD DFFDGXWR PHQWUH VH VL YXROH XQD SUHYLVLRQH VWDELOH FRQ YDULD]LRQL FDVXDOLFKHYHQJDQROLVFLDWHVLGDUjSHVRDWXWWDODVHULH. 34.

(95) 8QD JHQHUDOL]]D]LRQH GHO PHWRGR GL OLVFLDPHQWR HVSRQHQ]LDOH VRQR L PHWRGL GL +ROW :LQWHUVFKHSRVVRQRHVVHUHVWDJLRQDOLRQRQVWDJLRQDOL,OPHWRGRQRQVWDJLRQDOHVLIRQGD VXOO¶LSRWHVL FKH XQ DJJLXVWDPHQWR LQ SURVVLPLWj GL Q PHGLDQWH XQD UHWWD GL HTXD]LRQH. Ln + Tn (t − n) VLDSUHIHULELOHDOODSHUHTXD]LRQHIRUQLWDGDXQDFRVWDQWH,QGLFDQGRFRQ Lˆ n  ˆ H Tn  OH VWLPH ULVSHWWLYDPHQWH GHOO¶LQWHUFHWWD H GHO FRHIILFLHQWH DQJRODUH GHOOD UHWWD. DVVXQWL  D UDSSUHVHQWDUH LO OLYHOOR H LO WUHQG GHOOD VHULH QHO SHULRGR Q OH IRUPXOH GL DJJLRUQDPHQWRVRQRGDWHGD Lˆn = α (Lˆn −1 + Tˆn −1) + (1 − α )y n Tˆn = β Tˆn −1 + (1 − β )(Lˆn − Lˆn −1). . FRQ α  β . ˆ ˆ ˆ /DSUHYLVLRQHqTXLQGLGDWDGD y n + k = Ln + Tn k N•. ,O PHWRGR GL +ROW:LQWHUV VWDJLRQDOH SXz HVVHUH LQYHFH DGGLWLYR R PROWLSOLFDWLYR GD VFHJOLHUHVROLWDPHQWHVHFRQGRLFDVLLOOXVWUDWLLQILJXUD3HUTXDQWRULJXDUGDLOPHWRGR DGGLWLYR OD VHULH LQ SURVVLPLWj GL Q q HVSULPLELOH FRPH Ln + Tn (t − n ) + Sn  GRYH 6Q q XQ ˆ IDWWRUHVWDJLRQDOHGLSHULRGRSDULD6,QGLFDWDFRQ Sn ODVWLPDGLWDOHIDWWRUHOHIRUPXOHGL. DJJLRUQDPHQWRGLYHQWDQR Lˆn = α (Lˆn −1 + Tˆn −1) + (1 − α )( y n − Sˆ n − s ) Tˆn = β Tˆn −1 + (1 − β )(Lˆn − Lˆn −1). . FRQ α  β  γ . Sˆ n = γSˆ n − s + (1 − γ )( y n − Lˆn ). ­° Lˆn + Tˆn k + Sˆ n + k − s se 1 ≤ k ≤ s ˆ HODSUHYLVLRQHqGDWDGD y n + k = ®°Lˆ + Tˆ k + Sˆ se s + 1 ≤ k ≤ 2s  n n + k − 2s ¯ n. ,O PHWRGR PROWLSOLFDWLYR SUHYHGH LQYHFH FKH OD VHULH VLD GDWD LQ SURVVLPLWj GL Q GD [Ln + Tn (t − n )] ⋅ Sn HOHIRUPXOHGLDJJLRUQDPHQWRVRQR y Lˆn = α (Lˆn −1 + Tˆn −1) + (1 − α ) n ˆ Sn − s ˆ ˆ ˆ ˆ  Tn = β Tn −1 + (1 − β )(Ln − Ln −1).  . FRQ α  β  γ . y Sˆ n = γSˆ n − s + (1 − γ ) n Lˆ n. ­ (Lˆn + Tˆn k ) ⋅ Sˆ n + k − s se 1 ≤ k ≤ s ˆ n + k = °® y TXLQGLODSUHYLVLRQHqGDWDGD ˆ ˆ ˆ °¯(Ln + Tn k ) ⋅ Sn + k − 2s se s + 1 ≤ k ≤ 2s . 35.

(96) ,OFRHIILFLHQWH β qODFRVWDQWHGLOLVFLDPHQWRUHODWLYDDOWUHQGPHQWUH γ TXHOODUHODWLYDDOOD VWDJLRQDOLWj RJQXQR GL HVVL YD DG LQIOXHQ]DUH OD ULVSHWWLYD FRPSRQHQWH WHQGHQ]LDOH H VWDJLRQDOH

(97)  FRPH ID α  FRQ LO OLYHOOR UDSSUHVHQWDQR LO SHVR FKH VL YXROH GDUH DOO¶XOWLPD RVVHUYD]LRQH GLVSRQLELOH QHOOD GHWHUPLQD]LRQH GHOOD SUHYLVLRQH 7XWWL L SDUDPHWUL KDQQR GRPLQLR>@ 3HU XQD JLXVWD VFHOWD GHO PRGHOOR q IRQGDPHQWDOH TXLQGL XQD SULPD DQDOLVL JUDILFD GHOOD VHULHGHLGDWLSHULQGLYLGXDUHODSUHVHQ]DRPHQRGHOOHYDULHFRPSRQHQWLHSRVVLELOPHQWH GHOPRGR FRQFXLTXHVWHLQWHUDJLVFRQR WUDORUR/DILJXUD LOOXVWUD TXDOLVRQRLPRGHOOL SULQFLSDOL .  )LJXUD±,SULQFLSDOLPRGHOOLGLOLVFLDPHQWRHVSRQHQ]LDOH 0DNULGDNLV+\QGPDQ

(98) .   ±/¶DSSURFFLRPRGHUQR  1HOO¶DSSURFFLR PRGHUQR DOO¶DQDOLVL GHOOH VHULH VWRULFKH VL VSRVWD O¶LQWHUHVVH GD I W

(99)  D XW VXSSRQHQGR FKH VLD SRVVLELOH HVWUDUUH XQ TXDOFKH WLSR GL LQIRUPD]LRQH GDOOD FRPSRQHQWH VWRFDVWLFD3URSULRSHUTXHVWRPRWLYR XWQRQYLHQHSLDVVXQWRFRPHSURFHVVR ZKLWHQRLVH PD SLXWWRVWR FRPH SURFHVVR D FRPSRQHQWL FRUUHODWH SHU LO TXDOH FLRq &RY XUXV

(100)  SHU TXDOFKH UV 1H GHULYD FKH O¶RELHWWLYR QRQ q SL TXHOOR GL VWLPDUH OH FRPSRQHQWL GL XQD VHULH PD LQGLYLGXDUH XQ PRGHOOR SUREDELOLVWLFR FKH GHVFULYD O¶HYROX]LRQH GHO IHQRPHQR PRGHOORFKHSXzHVVHUHXVDWRVLDSHUILQLGHVFULWWLYLFKHSUHYLVLYL 'L)RQ]R/LVL

(101) 3HU. 36.

(102) GHILQLUHXQSURFHVVRVWRFDVWLFRELVRJQDFRQVLGHUDUHXQRVSD]LRGLSUREDELOLWj ȍ)3

(103) GRYH ȍqORVSD]LRFDPSLRQDULR )XQDıDOJHEUD VXȍ e P una misura di probabilità. Dato uno spazio parametrico T, si definisce processo stocastico una funzione finita e a valori reali di Ȧ࠵ȍ e t࠵T tale che , per ogni t, Yt(Ȧ) è una funzione misurabile di Ȧ. Inoltre: o. SHURJQLȦ=Ȧ0 fissato, Yt(Ȧ0) è una funzione di t detta realizzazione (o traiettoria) del processo stocastico;. o. SHURJQLW WILVVDWR<W Ȧ) è una funzione misurabile di Ȧ࠵ȍ e, quindi, una variabile casuale;. o. SHUW WHȦ=Ȧ0<W Ȧ0) è un numero reale.. 8QD VHULH VWRULFD q GXQTXH XQD SDUWH ILQLWD GL XQD VLQJROD UHDOL]]D]LRQH GHO SURFHVVR TXLQGL QRQ VROR FRVWLWXLVFH XQ FDPSLRQH XQLFR GHOOD IDPLJOLD GL YDULDELOL FDVXDOL FKH FRVWLWXLVFRQR LO SURFHVVR PD q DQFKH XQ FDPSLRQH WURQFDWR SHUFKp VL RVVHUYD SHU. W «Q &RPH SHU O¶DSSURFFLR FODVVLFR DQFKH LQ TXHVWR FDVR O¶RELHWWLYR GHOO¶DQDOLVL q LQGLYLGXDUH LO SURFHVVR JHQHUDWRUH FLRq O¶LSRWHWLFR SURFHVVR VWRFDVWLFR FKH JHQHUD L GDWL GHOOD VHULH DWWUDYHUVR OR VWXGLR GHOOD VHULH VWHVVD ILQR DG DUULYDUH DOOD IRUPXOD]LRQH GHO PRGHOORVWDWLVWLFR 3HU OD GHVFUL]LRQH FRPSOHWD GL XQ SURFHVVR VWRFDVWLFR RFFRUUHUHEEH VSHFLILFDUH OD GLVWULEX]LRQHGLSUREDELOLWjFRQJLXQWDGL <W«<WQ

(104) SHURJQLLQVLHPHGLLVWDQWL W«WQHG RJQL YDORUH GL Q PD GDWD OD GLIILFROWj GL FLz VL SUHIHULVFH GHILQLUH XQ SURFHVVR VWRFDVWLFR VXOODEDVHGHLVXRLPRPHQWLHGLQSDUWLFRODUHLSULPLGXHPRPHQWLGHOODYF<W  )XQ]LRQH0HGLD. . ȝ ( <W

Riferimenti

Documenti correlati

Descrizione della attività di verifica effettuata nell'ambito del test di conformità Commenti e riferimenti alla documentazione esaminata Valutazione singolo punto di

VHODOXFHq FRQVLGHUDWDFRPHXQ RQGDFODVVLFDJOLHOHWWURQLGRYUHEEHURDVVRUELUHHQHUJLDLQ PRGRFRQWLQXRHSHURJQLYDORUHGHOO LQWHQVLWj OXPLQRVDª GRYUHEEHHVVHUHVRORTXHVWLRQHGL

Servizi operativi, affidando alla stessa i compiti e le funzioni inerenti la gestione di tutti gli interventi volti a garantire la sicurezza stradale, la gestione della Centrale

Devono servire in modo tale da evitare pressioni o stress interni che talvolta causano microscopiche rotture che a loro volta possono portare alla rottura dello strumento

VHUFL]LR 8QR VWXGHQWH GHYH VRVWHQHUH O HVDPH GL &DOFROR GHOOH 3UREDELOLW— D 6H VWXGLD WXWWR LO SURJUDPPD VXSHUD O HVDPH FRQ SUREDELOLW—D VH LQYHFH QRQ VWXGLD O XOWLPR FDSLWROR

In ogni caso anche senza effettuare nessun tipo di attacco, ma navigando in Internet da una qualsiasi delle macchine presenti nella sottorete, si puó testare il corretto

• Terminata la compilazione di tutte le sezioni, cliccare su “Conferma ed invio”, compaiono le dichiarazioni finali da rendere ed alla conclusione di queste si “Conferma

• I giovani nati in Italia da genitori stranieri mostrano di scontare meno difficoltà rispetto alle prime generazioni, in virtù di una migliore conoscenza della lingua, di