Developing risk and safety management methods for complex socio-technical systems: from Newtonian reasoning to Resilience Engineering

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ἐπιστήμη τέχνη

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𝑛 𝜆 det(𝐴 − 𝜆𝐼) = 0 𝐼𝐶= (𝜆𝑀𝐴𝑋− 𝑛) 𝑛 − 1 𝐼𝐶< 0.1 𝜆 𝐼𝐶 (𝐼𝐶> 0.1)

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𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑖𝑗

𝑖 𝑅𝐴𝑀𝑖𝑗= 1

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𝑂𝑉𝑗= 𝑉𝑗𝑇∙ 𝑉𝑗𝑃 𝑉_𝑗𝑇 _𝑗 𝑉𝑗𝑃 𝑗 𝑗 𝑖 𝐶𝑉𝑖𝑗= 𝑂𝑉𝑗∙ 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑇∙ 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑃 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑇 𝑗 𝑖 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑃 𝑗 𝑖 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑇 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑃 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑇(or 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑃) {

> 1 if the upstream output has an amplyfing effect on the downstream function = 1 if the upstream output has no effect on the downstream function < 1 if the upstream output has a damping effect on the downstream function

𝑚 𝑚

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𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘 𝑺𝑷𝑪𝟏 _𝑺𝑷𝑪𝟐 _… _𝑺𝑷𝑪𝒎 𝑏11 𝑏12 𝑏1𝑚 𝑏21 𝑏22 𝑏2𝑚 𝑏𝑛1 𝑏𝑛2 𝑏𝑛𝑚 𝑏𝑗𝑘 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘 𝑗 𝑗 𝑏𝑗𝑘 𝑏𝑗𝑘{

= 1 in case the 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘_{has a high impact on the j function} < 1 in case the 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘_{has a moderate impact on the j function} = 0 in case the 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘_{has no impact on the j function}

𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘 _𝑆𝑃𝐶 𝑧𝑘 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘 𝑆𝑧 𝑧 = 1, … , 𝑍 𝑺𝑷𝑪𝟏 _𝑺𝑷𝑪𝟐 _𝑺𝑷𝑪𝒎 𝑆𝑃𝐶11 𝑆𝑃𝐶12 𝑆𝑃𝐶1𝑚 𝑆𝑃𝐶21 𝑆𝑃𝐶22 𝑆𝑃𝐶2𝑚 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑍1 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑍2 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑍𝑚 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑇 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑃 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘= {

𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘′ High Variability effect of SPCk 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘′′ Low Variability effect of SPCk 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘′′′ No Variability effect of SPCk

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𝑒𝑗𝑧 𝑗 𝑧 𝑒𝑗𝑧= ∑𝑚𝑘=1𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧𝑘∙ 𝑏𝑗𝑘 𝑚 𝑗 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑘 _𝑏 𝑗𝑘= 0 𝑘 𝑒𝑗𝑧= 0 𝑒𝑗𝑧= 1 𝑒_𝑗𝑧_{= 𝑚𝑎𝑥 {1;}∑ 𝑆𝑃𝐶𝑧 𝑘_{∙ 𝑏} 𝑗𝑘 𝑚 𝑘=1 𝑚 } 𝑧 𝑂𝑉𝑗 𝐶𝑉𝑖𝑗 𝑒𝑗𝑧 𝑉𝑃𝑁𝑖𝑗𝑧= 𝑂𝑉𝑗∙ 𝐶𝑉𝑖𝑗∙ 𝑒𝑗𝑧= (𝑉𝑗𝑇∙ 𝑉𝑗𝑃) ∙ (𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑇∙ 𝑎𝑖𝑗𝑃) ∙ 𝑒𝑗𝑧 𝑉𝑗𝑇 𝑉𝑗𝑃 𝑉𝑗𝑇 𝑉𝑗𝑃 𝑉𝑃𝑁_𝑖𝑗𝑧

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𝑉𝑗,𝑃𝐻 𝑃𝐻 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛𝑃𝐻 𝑛𝑃𝐻 𝑂𝑉𝑗

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